understandingsudan.org university of california, berkeley © 2008 sudan prospects for peace...

UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008

Sudan Prospects for Peace

September 2008

presented by: Michael Kevane, Dept. of

Economics, Santa Clara University

for more information seeUnderstandingSudan.org

20 September 2008

http://understandingsudan.org/


Outline– Quick timeline– What were and are the wars? – What is the structure of the peace?– What can we say about likely

reversion to war?– What steps can be taken to reduce

likelihood of return to war?


Quick Timeline – 1821 Invasion by Mohamed Ali of Egypt defeats

Kingdom of Sennar and occupies most of northern Sudan

– 1885 Mohamed al-Mahdi revolts against Turks-Egyptians-English

– 1898 Britain reconquers Sudan – Co-dominion– 1916 Britain conquers Sultanate of Darfur– 1956 Hasty independence– 1958 General Ibrahim Abboud takes power– 1964 October uprising restores democracy– 1969 Colonel Jaafar Nimeiri takes power– 1985 Palace coup/popular uprising restores democracy– 1989 Colonel Omar al-Bashir takes power– 2005 Signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement

(CPA)– 2009 Elections supposed to be held– 2011 Southern referendum


What were and are the wars?

– North-South 1955-72– North-South 1983-2005

•SPLA split of 1991•Famine of 1998•Nuba Mountains•Eastern Sudan, NDA

– Darfur 2003-present


North-South War 1955-72

Leading up to handover of power from Anglo-Egyptian condominium, rumors that northern-

dominated army would emasculate southerners in army

– Confusion over orders for garrison of southern army in Torit to move to Khartoum

– Near-simultaneous uprising targeting northern officers and northern resident in south. About 350 killed.

– Low level unorganized resistance– Joseph Lagu defects from northern army 1963– Anya Nya gradually coalesced– South Sudan Liberation Movement (SSLM)– Addis Ababa Agreement 1972


North-South War 1955-72: What was it like?

“I received a blow in Bor in 1967 when I went there to defend a great and fine man, Paramount Chief Ajang Duot Bior with 14 other chiefs. They were detained by the army garrison in Bor… I was immediately confronted by a young officer who was dangling his revolver in front of me and said, without mincing his words: “I hear you are an advocate who has come to defend the chiefs. Well, this is our law…” pointing to the revolver…I returned to Juba to seek transfer orders… the Paramount Chief and others were taken from detention and escorted to their homes where they were shot. The young officer in Bor was earnest in his threats. “– Abel Alier Southern Sudan: To Many Agreements

Dishonored. Exeter: Ithaca Press, 1990 p. 7.


Short-Lived Addis Ababa Agreement 1972

– Southern Autonomy– High Executive Council and Regional

Assembly– Oil discovered by Chevron– Nimeiri after 1977 reconciles with

northern political forces– Gradual abrogation of agreement, final

straw dismissal of HEC and re-division into three provinces with military governors



– Kerubino Bol and John Garang organize uprising in Bor garrison

– SPLA went from about 10,000 in early 1980s to 50,000 in mid-1990s

– The Red Army (youth training)– Early 1991 Garang leads SPLA to try to take

Juba– Mengistu falls in Ethiopia in May 1991– August 1991 – Riek Machar, Lam Akol, Gordon

Kong split from Garang– SPLA severely weakened, but eventually

withstands the split, Riek rejoins in 2002 after a decade allied with government



Operation Lifeline brings massive foreign involvement in southern Sudan

– Military coup brings General Omar al-Bashir and Islamists too power. War of attrition.

– 1998 al-Shifa cruise missile attack shifts U.S. policy to support SPLA more openly

– Sept. 11, 2001 escalates U.S. resolve to embark on “regime changes”

– Countries around Sudan become increasingly hostile towards military regime

– Oil revenues make peace profitable for both sides


North-South War 1983-05: Presage of Tactics in Darfur

– Famine of 1998 in Bahr al-Ghazal• Clearing of region for oil exploration and

development• Murahalen• Kerubino Bol (SPLM founder, rift with Garang, see HRW report)

• Several hundred thousand people die• Cry for Madiom DVD documents one feeding center

– Nuba Mountains• Site of intense fighting during 1990s• Bombing of school in Kauda, February 2000

– http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/640128.stm

• Ethnic cleansing into “peace camps”

http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/sudan/SUDAWEB2-51.htm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/640128.stm


GeographySudan in the Region2

Darfur1

Sudan in the World

1. http:// rightsmaps.com/html/sudmap1.html and2. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L03772791.htm


War in Darfur• 1990-2000 high casualty but basically stagnant and

unorganized low-level warfare, linked to war in Chad• 2003 two rebel movements (SLA and JEM) attack El

Fasher airport• Government-backed militia, janjawid, est. 20,000

persons, launches scorched earth campaign • Multiplicity of rebel groups:

– Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) fractured; Minni Minawi faction signed Darfur Peace Agreement with government, May 2006, Abdel Wahid al-Nur remains in Paris

– Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – attacked Omdurman in a bold move in May 2008

• 200,000-300,000 deaths estimated overall since February 2003

• 2.5 million persons internally displaced (IDPs)• 238,000 refugees in 12 UNHCR camps in Chad• 4.5 million persons in need of humanitarian assistance.


What is the structure of the peace?

– Comprehensive Peace Agreement– Darfur Peace Agreement– International Criminal Court


Comprehensive Peace Agreement

– Power-sharing between SPLA and National Congress Party (NCP) of Omar al Bashir – 52%/28% in Government of National unity (GNU) and North, 28%/52% in South

– Wealth-sharing of oil revenues – basically 50-50

– Joint Integrated Forces, demobilization– Multi-donor development trust funds


Darfur Peace Agreement

– Power-sharing between Darfur rebel groups and National Congress Party (NCP) of Omar al Bashir

– Darfur rebel representative in Vice-Presidential like position

– Transfer of wealth from central government to Darfur provinces (three provinces or one?)

– Darfur-Darfur peace dialogues– Cantoning of armed forces and disarmament


International Criminal Court

– Case referred to ICC by Security Council after UN report

– Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo indicted Ahmed Haroun and Ali Kushayb in 2007

“Evidence collected by the Office of the Prosecutor and presented to the ICC judges on February 27th shows Ahmad Harun and Ali Kushayb joining together to systematically pursue and attack innocent civilians. In his former position as Minister of State for the Interior and head of the Darfur security desk, Ahmad Harun organised a system through which he recruited, funded and armed Militia/Janjaweed to supplement the Sudanese Armed Forces and then incited them to commit murder, rape, and other massive crimes against the civilian population. He was well-suited for the task, having mobilised and recruited Militia in Kordofan, South Sudan, for a counterinsurgency campaign in the 1990s. Militia/Janjaweed leader Ali Kushayb played a key role in Harun’s system, personally delivering arms and leading attacks against villages.”

From ICC press release, June 2007 http://www.icc-cpi.int/pressrelease_details&id=251.html

http://www.icc-cpi.int/pressrelease_details&id=251.html

http://www.icc-cpi.int/pressrelease_details&id=251.html


International Criminal Court

– and President Omar al-Bashir in July 2008• “The Prosecution evidence shows that Al Bashir

masterminded and implemented a plan to destroy in substantial part the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa groups, on account of their ethnicity. Members of the three groups, historically influential in Darfur, were challenging the marginalization of the province; they engaged in a rebellion. AL BASHIR failed to defeat the armed movements, so he went after the people. “His motives were largely political. His alibi was a ‘counterinsurgency.’ His intent was genocide. ” The Prosecutor said.”

• From ICC press release, July 2008 http://www.icc-cpi.int/press/pressreleases/406.html

– What would arrest warrant do to CPA and Darfur?


What kind of likely reversion to war?

– North-South civil war• Abyei – town destroyed in May 2008• Elections in 2009 and referendum in 2011• Southerners in Khartoum population’s citizenship

and legal status

– Darfur– South-South civil war

• Plenty of ethnic cleavages and tactical divisions (Salva Kiir-Riek Machar, etc.)

– North-North civil war• Hassan al-Turabi may be plotting comeback, Sadiq

al-Mahdi, etc.


What are root causes of wars? – War of visions? Whose country is Sudan?

What kind of country?• Wresting power from “Arabs” from central

northern Sudan• Muzzling Islamists and convincing ordinary

Muslims that a secular or multicultural state is acceptable

– Wars of grievance?• Power and wealth sharing

– Ethnic fault lines (structural geography)?– Wars as elites fighting by proxy?

• A military-security apparatus in Khartoum, warlords elsewhere


What steps can be taken to reduce likelihood of return to

war?

– Peacekeeping troops•Darfur•South

– Economic sanctions– Guarantees to South– Military intervention in Darfur

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