united states department of agriculture national ... · 9/28/2018 · small grains annual summary...

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Small Grains Summary

Grain StocksExecutive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 28, 2018

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Field Crops Grain Stocks Oilseed Stocks

Wheat Corn Soybeans

Barley Wheat Sunflower

Oats Barley Safflower

Rye Oats Mustard Seed

Sorghum

Contents

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

September Ag Survey Off- Farm Grain Stocks Survey

Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities

Collection

Method

Mail, Phone, Internet,

Personal Interview

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal

Interview

Crops Included Barley, Oats, Rye, Wheat

Barley, Corn, Mustard Seed,

Oats, Soybean, Safflower,

Sorghum, Sunflower, Wheat

StatesAll States Except HI, MA, NH,

RI, and VTAll States Except AK, HI, and NV

Sample Size 66,343 ~ 8,500 Facilities

Collection Period August 30 – September 15 August 30 – September 18

Survey Overview

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Wheat, Winter

Planted Mil Ac 32.5 -0.6 -0.5

Harvested Mil Ac 24.7 -0.3 -2.2

Yield Bu/Ac 47.9 NC -4.6

Production Bil Bu 1.18 -0.4 -6.7

32.5

24.7

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

47.9

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per AcreWinter Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

9-28-18


% Change % Change

From From



Wheat, Spring

Planted Mil Ac 13.2 -<0.1 +19.8

Harvested Mil Ac 12.9 -<0.1 +27.1

Yield Bu/Ac 48.3 +1.5 +17.8

Production Mil Bu 623 +1.5 +50.0

13.2

12.9

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million AcresOther Spring Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

48.3

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per Acre

Other Spring Wheat YieldUnited States


USDA-NASS

9-28-18

USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

9-28-18


% Change % Change

From From



Wheat, Durum

Planted Mil Ac 2.07 +9.4 -10.5

Harvested Mil Ac 1.97 +6.8 -6.6

Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 -1.5 +51.2

Production Mil Bu 77.3 +5.2 +41.1

2.07

1.97

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million AcresDurum Wheat Acres

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

9-28-18

39.3

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per AcreDurum Wheat Yield

United States


USDA-NASS

9-28-18

USDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

9-28-18


% Change % Change

From From



Wheat, All

Planted Mil Ac 47.8 -<0.1 +3.9

Harvested Mil Ac 39.6 +0.1 +5.5

Yield Bu/Ac 47.6 +0.4 +2.8

Production Bil Bu 1.88 +0.4 +8.3

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

1.83

1.84

1.85

1.86

1.87

1.88

1.89

1.90

1.91

1.92

1.93

July August Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States All Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

1.15

1.17

1.19

1.21

1.23

1.25

1.27

1.29

1.31

1.33

1.35

May June July August Final

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Winter Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS


USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

650

660

July August Final

Million Bushels

2018 United States Other Spring Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS


USDA-NASS

9-28-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

July August Final

Million Bushels

2018 United States Durum Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS


USDA-NASS

9-28-18


% Change % Change

From From



Barley

Planted Mil Ac 2.54 -0.2 +2.5

Harvested Mil Ac 1.98 -3.3 +1.2

Yield Bu/Ac 77.4 +1.4 +6.6

Production Mil Bu 153 -2.0 +7.9

USDA-NASS

9-28-18


% Change % Change

From From



Oats

Planted Mil Ac 2.75 -4.9 +6.1

Harvested Mil Ac 0.865 -14.3 +8.0

Yield Bu/Ac 64.9 -0.3 +5.2

Production Mil Bu 56.1 -14.5 +13.6

USDA-NASS

9-28-18


% Change % Change

From From



Rye

Planted Mil Ac 2.01 +2.0 +2.5

Harvested Mil Ac 0.273 -22.7 -4.5

Yield Bu/Ac 30.9 NA -8.8

Production Mil Bu 8.43 NA -13.0

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Crop 2016 2017 2018

Percent

Other Spring Wheat 8.4 8.1 10.3

Durum Wheat 17.0 8.5 28.5

Barley 5.7 7.0 10.7

Oats 7.7 13.4 10.1

Percent of Acres Left to be HarvestedUnited States

2.82

2.87

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.922.98

2.38

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar JunUSDA-NASS

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USDA-NASS

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NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

2.15

2.20

2.25

2.30

2.35

2.40

2.45

September

Billion Bushels

2018 United States All Wheat StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS


14.313.7

14.7

14.113.4

11.7

14.7

15.4

15.3

16.9 16.9

2.14

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion BushelsCorn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

USDA-NASS

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NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

September

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Corn StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS


3.253.17

3.50 3.48 3.31

3.21

3.50

4.024.12

4.49

4.71

0.438

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

USDA-NASS

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NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

375

390

405

420

435

450

465

480

495

September

Million Bushels

2018 United States Soybean StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS


USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Previous

Estimates

Sept 28

EstimatesChange

Million Bushels

Sept 1, 2017 Beginning Stocks 302 302 NC

2017 Production 4,392 4,411 +19

Imports *22 *22 NC

Total Supply 4,716 4,735 +19

Crushings *2,055 *2,055 NC

Exports *2,130 *2,130 NC

Seed *104 *104 NC

Measured Disappearance *4,289 *4,289 NC

Ending Stocks *395 438 +43

Residual 32 8 -24

2017 Soybean Crop

*WAOB Forecast – September WASDE Report

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

September 1, 2018 Grain Stocks

% Change % Change

From From


2018 Estimate Year

Stocks

Barley Mil Bu 175 NA -2.9

Oats Mil Bu 74.9 NA +4.0

Sorghum Mil Bu 34.9 NA +4.2

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

September 1, 2018 Oilseed Stocks

% Change % Change

From From


2018 Estimate Year

Stocks

All Sunflower Mil Lbs 386 NA -34.5

Safflower Mil Lbs 10.7 NA -42.6

Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 9.30 NA +31.7

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

Release Date Report Title

October 1 CAIR: Cotton, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings

October 11Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

October 19 Cattle on Feed

October 23 Cotton Ginnings

October 26 Rice Stocks

October 30 Ag Prices

Upcoming Reports

USDA-NASS

9-28-18

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov

For Questions202-720-2127

800-727-9540

[email protected]

united states department of agriculture national ... · 9/28/2018 · small grains annual summary...

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