update: senate races to watch - nmhc | home€¦ · arizona: republican john mccain seeking sixth...

© 2013 Bloomberg Finance L.P. www.bgov.com | @BGOV © 2013 Bloomberg Finance L.P. www.bgov.com | @BGOV © 2016 Bloomberg Finance L.P. www.bgov.com | @BGOV

UPDATED JULY 13, 2016

GREG GIROUX Congress Tracker Reporter

Update: Senate Races to Watch

Congress Tracker Editor

KATHERINE RIZZO

This document is being prepared for the exclusive use of CARA READ at BLOOMBERG/ 1101 K

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© 2016 Bloomberg Finance L.P.

ABOUT THIS SLIDE DECK

A version of these slides, which adapts Greg Giroux’s weekly column,

was presented in the July 13 “FLASH/CAST: Senate Races to Watch”

In the following slides, you’ll see:

» A current partisan breakdown of the Senate

» How states split their votes for presidents and senators

» A map of all the states with Senate elections this year

• We’ve marked the seven states where Republicans are defending seats and

President Barack Obama won in the 2012 election

• Of those states, six are considered competitive for Democrats

» A closer look at several races:

• The eight most competitive races: Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada,

New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

• Three races that could become highly competitive: Arizona, Missouri, and

North Carolina

• Three races in which retirements guarantee a new senator next year and one

party has a clear advantage: California, Louisiana, Maryland

» A list of Senate committee chairmen up for re-election this year

» Data on all 34 states holding Senate elections


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DEMOCRATS NEED A NET OF FIVE SEATS TO WIN

CONTROL OF THE SENATE

If there’s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, control would depend on who

wins the White House, because the vice president would break the tie


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STATES WITH SENATE RACES IN 2016

Mont.

Va. W .Va.

Ga.

Idaho

Ill.

Iowa

Kan. K y .

La.

Maine

Colo.

Del.

N.J.

Mass.

N.C.

S.C.

Mich.

Minn.

Miss.

R.I.

N.M.

T exas

W yo.

S.D.

Tenn. Okla.

Ore.

Ark.

N.H.

Alaska

Hawaii

Ala.

Mo.

Nev.

Vt.

Utah

Fla.

Ind. Ohio

Md.

N. Y. W is.

Conn.

Ariz.

N.D.

Pa.

Wash.

Calif.

Neb.

Republican-held seat – state won by Romney in 2012

Democratic-held seat

Republican-held seat – state won by Obama in 2012


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STRAIGHT-TICKET VOTING FOR PRESIDENT, SENATORS

Note: Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine are classified here as Democrats, the party they caucus with for organizational purposes in the Senate.

Voted Republican for president in 2012;

two Republican senators (19 states)

Mont.

Neb.

Va. W.Va.

Ga.

Idaho

Ill.

Iowa

Kan. Ky.

La.

Maine

Colo.

Del.

N.J.

Mass.

N.C.

S.C.

Mich.

Minn.

Miss.

R.I.

N.M.

Texas

Wyo.

S.D.

Tenn. Okla.

Ore.

Ark.

N.H.

Alaska

Hawaii

Ala.

Mo.

Ne v .

Vt.

Utah

Fla.

Ind. Ohio

Md.

N.Y. . W is.

Conn.

Ariz.

N.D.

Pa.

Wash.

Calif.

Voted Republican for president in 2012;

one Republican/one Democratic senator (5)

Voted Democratic for president in 2012;

two Democratic senators (16)

Voted Democratic for president in 2012;

one Democratic/one Republican senator (9)

Voted Democratic for president in

2012; two Republican senators (1)


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PRIMARY SEASON IN LULL UNTIL AUGUST

Kansas

Missouri

Washington

Michigan

Aug. 2

Tennessee

Aug. 4

AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

Connecticut

Minnesota

Vermont

Wisconsin

Aug. 9

Hawaii

Aug. 13

Alaska

Wyoming

Aug. 16

Arizona

Florida

Aug. 30

Massachusetts

Sept. 8

Delaware

New Hampshire

Rhode Island

Sept. 13

Louisiana

Nov. 8

Congressional primaries are scheduled to be held in 19 states, including Louisiana, where all

candidates compete on the general election date and any needed runoffs are in December


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FLORIDA: RUBIO REVERSAL RESETS RACE

Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio announced re-election

campaign June 22, reversing earlier decision to retire

Challengers: Developer Carlos Beruff running against Rubio in

Republican primary; Representatives Alan Grayson and Patrick

Murphy are the top Democratic candidates

Primary: Aug. 30

Why watch: A true swing state, Florida went for Obama by less

than one percentage point in the 2012 presidential election —

the closest margin in the nation.

Race ratings

Cook Political Report Toss-up

Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up

Photo credits: Rubio from Senate website; all others from Twitter

Grayson

Murphy

Beruff

Rubio


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ILLINOIS: KIRK-DUCKWORTH BATTLE THIS FALL

Incumbent: Republican Mark Kirk seeking a second term

Challenger: Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth

Why watch: The incumbent is a Republican in a

Democratic state and the occupant of the Senate seat

Obama once held.

Race ratings


Rothenberg & Gonzales Leans Democratic

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic

Photo credits: Kirk from Senate website; Duckworth from House website

Kirk

Duckworth


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INDIANA: BAYH ENTRY MAKES RACE MORE COMPETITIVE

Incumbent: Republican Dan Coats is retiring again

Candidates: Republican Representative Todd Young

and Democratic ex-Senator Evan Bayh

Why watch: Young was a heavy favorite against ex-

Representative Baron Hill, though Bayh's late entry as a

replacement for Hill gives Democrats a candidate with a

huge campaign fund and history of winning elections in

the Republican-friendly state.

Race ratings


Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Democratic


Photo credits: Young from House website; Bayh from BGOV website

Young

Bayh


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NEVADA: WHO REPLACES TOP SENATE DEMOCRAT?

Incumbent: Retiring Democratic Leader Harry Reid

General election set after June 14 primary:

» Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, former state

attorney general, backed by Reid

» Republican Representative Joe Heck, emergency

room doctor and veteran

Why watch: This is the Republicans’ best opportunity

to pick up a Democratic seat.

Race ratings




Photo credits: Heck from BGOV database; Cortez Masto from state attorney general website

Cortez Masto

Heck


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NEW HAMPSHIRE: AYOTTE-HASSAN MATCHUP AHEAD

Incumbent: Republican Kelly Ayotte

Challenger: Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan

Primaries: Sept. 13

Why watch: Obama won the state in 2012 and its

voting patterns come close to mirroring the national

popular vote in that election.

Race ratings




Photo credits: Ayotte from Senate website; Hassan from governor’s website

Ayotte

Hassan


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OHIO: PORTMAN AND STRICKLAND TO FACE OFF

Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman

Challenger: Democrat Ted Strickland, a former governor

Why watch: Typically a bellwether in presidential

elections, Ohio is one of the seven states that supported

Obama in 2012 and have Republican Senate seats up

for grabs. Portman and Strickland both are familiar

faces to the electorate.

Race ratings


Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican


Photo credits: Portman from Senate website; Strickland from campaign website

Portman

Strickland


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PENNSYLVANIA: TOOMEY-McGINTY RACE SET

Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey

Challenger: Katie McGinty, former chief of staff to

Governor Tom Wolf

Why watch: A Republican is defending a seat in a state

that votes Democratic for president

Race ratings


Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican


Photo credits: Toomey from Senate website; McGinty from Twitter account

Toomey

McGinty


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WISCONSIN: JOHNSON-FEINGOLD REMATCH LIKELY

Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson, seeking a

second term

Challenger: Former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold

Primaries: Aug. 9

Why watch: The last time a Wisconsin Republican won

a Senate race in a presidential election year was 1980,

raising questions about what the presidential turnout will

mean for Johnson’s re-election chances.

Race ratings


Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Democratic

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic

Photo credits: Johnson from Senate website; Feingold from campaign website biography

Johnson

Feingold


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THREE OTHER RACES WORTH WATCHING

Arizona: Republican John McCain seeking sixth term

» McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, faces opposition in the Aug.

30 primary from former state senator Kelli Ward

» Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick represents a Republican-leaning congressional district

» Arizona is more than 30 percent Hispanic and Donald Trump's candidacy could

spark higher turnout from that Democratic-leaning constituency

Missouri: Republican Roy Blunt seeking second term

» Blunt will face Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander, a former Army

captain who served in Afghanistan

North Carolina: Republican Richard Burr seeking a third term

» Burr will face Deborah Ross, a former state representative, in a state that should

be a presidential battleground in the fall


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ON THEIR WAY: THREE RACES WITH RETIRING

SENATORS WHERE A PARTY HAS DISTINCT ADVANTAGE

California: Democrat Barbara Boxer retiring

» State Attorney General Kamala Harris and Representative Loretta Sanchez

competing in Democrats-only November election

» Democratic women have won every California Senate election since 1992, beginning

with Boxer and Dianne Feinstein

» Winner will bring more diversity to the Senate: Harris is black and Asian-American,

Sanchez is Hispanic

Louisiana: Republican David Vitter retiring

» Representatives John Fleming and Charles Boustany and State Treasurer John

Kennedy are among Republicans running in an unusual all-party primary in November

» A December runoff seems certain

Maryland: Democrat Barbara Mikulski retiring

» Representative Chris Van Hollen favored after winning Democratic primary in April

» Kathy Szeliga, Republican whip in the state House, won her party’s nomination


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GAVELS AT A GLANCE:

FULL COMMITTEE CHAIRMEN SEEKING RE-ELECTION

Committee Chairman State Status

Armed Services John McCain Arizona Aug. 30 primary

Banking, Housing and

Urban Affairs Richard Shelby Alabama Won March 1 primary

Commerce, Science and

Transportation John Thune South Dakota

Unopposed in June 7

primary

Energy and Natural

Resources Lisa Murkowski Alaska Aug. 16 primary

Homeland Security and

Governmental Affairs Ron Johnson Wisconsin Aug. 9 primary

Intelligence Richard Burr North Carolina Won March 15 primary

Judiciary Chuck Grassley Iowa Unopposed in June 7

primary

Rules and Administration Roy Blunt Missouri Aug. 2 primary

Veterans’ Affairs Johnny Isakson Georgia Won May 24 primary


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LIST OF STATES HOLDING 2016 SENATE ELECTIONS,

WITH 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS

State Senator up in 2016 Party Obama 2012 % Romney 2012 % Winner Margin

Alabama Richard Shelby R 38.4% 60.5% Romney 22.2%

Alaska Lisa Murkowski R 40.8% 54.8% Romney 14.0%

Arizona John McCain R 44.6% 53.7% Romney 9.1%

Arkansas John Boozman R 36.9% 60.6% Romney 23.7%

California Barbara Boxer (retiring) D 60.2% 37.1% Obama 23.1%

Colorado Michael Bennet D 51.5% 46.1% Obama 5.4%

Connecticut Richard Blumenthal D 58.1% 40.7% Obama 17.3%

Florida Marco Rubio R 50.0% 49.1% Obama 0.9%

Georgia Johnny Isakson R 45.5% 53.3% Romney 7.8%

Hawaii Brian Schatz D 70.5% 27.8% Obama 42.7%

Idaho Mike Crapo R 32.6% 64.5% Romney 31.9%

Illinois Mark Kirk R 57.6% 40.7% Obama 16.9%

Indiana Dan Coats (retiring) R 43.9% 54.1% Romney 10.2%

Iowa Chuck Grassley R 52.0% 46.2% Obama 5.8%

Kansas Jerry Moran R 38.0% 59.7% Romney 21.7%

Kentucky Rand Paul R 37.8% 60.5% Romney 22.7%

Louisiana David Vitter (retiring) R 40.6% 57.8% Romney 17.2%

Maryland Barbara Mikulski (retiring) D 62.0% 35.9% Obama 26.1%

Missouri Roy Blunt R 44.4% 53.8% Romney 9.4%

Nevada Harry Reid (retiring) D 52.4% 45.7% Obama 6.7%

New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte R 52.0% 46.4% Obama 5.6%

New York Chuck Schumer D 63.3% 35.2% Obama 28.1%

North Carolina Richard Burr R 48.4% 50.4% Romney 2.0%

North Dakota John Hoeven R 38.7% 58.3% Romney 19.6%

Ohio Rob Portman R 50.7% 47.7% Obama 3.0%

Oklahoma James Lankford R 33.2% 66.8% Romney 33.5%

Oregon Ron Wyden D 54.2% 42.1% Obama 12.1%

Pennsylvania Pat Toomey R 52.0% 46.6% Obama 5.4%

South Carolina Tim Scott R 44.1% 54.6% Romney 10.5%

South Dakota John Thune R 39.9% 57.9% Romney 18.0%

Utah Mike Lee R 24.7% 72.8% Romney 48.0%

Vermont Patrick Leahy D 66.6% 31.0% Obama 35.6%

Washington Patty Murray D 56.2% 41.3% Obama 14.9%

Wisconsin Ron Johnson R 52.8% 45.9% Obama 6.9%


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Greg Giroux is a Washington-based reporter for Bloomberg Government's

Congress Tracker publication. His duties include writing and editing profiles

of members of Congress, analyzing congressional voting behavior, and

contributing to Bloomberg's coverage of campaigns, elections, and money in

politics. His specialties also include congressional history and redistricting.

[email protected]

+1 202 624 1846

@greggiroux


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update: senate races to watch - nmhc | home€¦ · arizona: republican john mccain seeking sixth...

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