us economy
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US Economy – Prelim GDP q/q
Source : National Income and Product AccountsGross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2014 (advance
estimate)By Bharat Pandya
Cell: 91 9624044866
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Gross GDP
3.9
4.9
3.7
4.1
Gross domestic product (GDP)....
Gross domestic product (GDP)....
1.8
2.8
1.9
2.8 2.8
-1.3
3.2
1.41.2
2.8
0.1
1.1
2.5 2.6
0.1
2011 2012 2013 2010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q1
Prediction is low it may be up.....
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Net exports of goods and services......
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Ax
is T
itle
Exports..............................
Goods..............................
Services...........................
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Ax
is T
itle
Axis Title
Imports..............................
Goods..............................
Services...........................
Goods & Service data released are better than this prediction
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Government consumption
expenditures
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Federal..............................
National defense...................
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0 National defense...................
Nondefense.........................
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Final sales of domestic product....
Gross domestic purchases...........
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Final sales of domestic product....
Gross domestic purchases...........
CB Consumer Confidence data released is flat so this should not be so negative
see column 19
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expenditures (for services)......
1.50
2.00
2.50
expenditures (for services)......
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
expenditures (for services)......
It supports data released for services
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Gross domestic product.............
109.000
109.500
110.000
110.500
111.000
Gross domestic product.............
106.500
107.000
107.500
108.000
108.500
109.000
2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1
Gross domestic product.............
Economy is improving......
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Exports of goods and services..............
128.000
130.000
132.000
Exports of goods and services..............
Durable Goods Orders m/m & Flash Services PMI are positive so this may be higher
than this predicted one
120.000
122.000
124.000
126.000
1 2 3 4 5
Exports of goods and services..............
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Imports of goods and services..............
123.000
124.000
125.000
Imports of goods and services..............
Decreasing Import is good for economy....
118.000
119.000
120.000
121.000
122.000
1 2 3 4 5
Imports of goods and services..............
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Personal consumption expenditures
(PCE)...
106.000
107.000
108.000
109.000
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)...
This is improving and supported by Consumer Confidence data
102.000
103.000
104.000
105.000
106.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)...
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Personal income1...........................
13800.0
14000.0
14200.0
14400.0
14600.0
Personal income1...........................
Personal Income is Improving......
12400.0
12600.0
12800.0
13000.0
13200.0
13400.0
13600.0
2011 2012 2013 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1
Personal income1...........................
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Wages & Salary
7000.0
7200.0
7400.0
Wages and salaries.....................
6200.0
6400.0
6600.0
6800.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Wages and salaries.....................
Wages &Salary – Income is Improving......
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Observations:
• Technical Supports:
– Gold: 1255 – 1246 – 1240
– Dollar Index: Fibo Levels:
• Trend up – Presently at 38.2 %
Level may reach 50% level at
80.90
• 23.6% level – 79.95
�Economy is Improving
� Income is Improving
� Data released this week supports
improvement
�Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
�Durable Goods Orders m/m
�Flash Services PMI
�Richmond Manufacturing Index
�Richmond Manufacturing Index23.6% level – 79.95
• Fundamental:
– If GDP data shows
improvement Gold price
may go down
�Richmond Manufacturing Index