U.S. IOOS&

the Ocean.US Modeling Initiative

• Background & the Mission of Ocean.US

• IOOS Conceptual Design

• Status of Implementation

• Ocean.US Modeling Initiative

NOAANavyNSFEPA

NASA

USACEUSGSUSCGMMSDOE

GOOSIOOS

IEOS GEOSS

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Welcome to theAcronym Jungle

1998 Congress Called forIntegrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

Routinely Provide Data/Info Required for More Rapid Detection & Timely Prediction of State Changes

• Improve the safety & efficiency of marine operations

• Improve national/homeland security

• Improve forecasts of natural hazards and mitigate their effects more effectively

• Improve predictions of climate change & their effects

• Minimize public health risks

• Protect & restore healthy coastal marine & estuarine ecosystems more effectively

• Sustain living marine resources

1 System, 7 Societal Goals3

2004 U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy

• Implement an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

Make more effective use of existing resources

Enhance operational capabilities over time to address 7 societal goals

• Ecosystem – Based Management

• Strengthen Regional Approach

As a means of implementing ecosystem–based management

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Ocean.USThe National Office for Integrated & Sustained Ocean

Observations

• Established in 2000 by NOPP to

Prepare & maintain IOOS Development Plans based on data requirements of user groups,

Coordinate integration of IOOS elements, including harmonizing regional & national development of the system, &

Function as the focal point for national & international development of ocean observing systems.

• Ocean.US Leadership

Current Director: Mary Altalo (1 January, 2006) Past Directors: David Martin, Eric Lindstrom, Tom Malone

www.ocean.us

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“Airlie House” WorkshopMarch 2002

• IOOS Design Principles

• Priority Products & Services for each of the 7 Societal Goals

• IOOS Conceptual Design

• Began Process of Specifying observing system

requirements

• DMAC the Highest Priority

• Estimated New Funding for Implementation

$138 M Yr 1 $500 M Yr 5

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IOOS Design Principles

• Provide data & information needed to address all 7 societal goals by implementing & sustaining an IOOS that is Responsive to the needs of decision makers, End – to – End Multi–scale, Multidisciplinary & Multipurpose

• Serve data & information at rates & in forms required by decision makers in each of the 7 societal benefit areas.

• Make more effective use of existing assets to Efficiently link observations & modeling through Integrated data management & communications

• Build on, improve & enhance existing capabilities over time

• Enable users from both private & public sectors to contribute to & benefit from IOOS data & information

• Adopt & implement national standards & protocols for Measurements & data telemetry, Data management & communications, & Modeling & analysis

• Implement performance measures for all of the above

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Satellites

Aircraft

Fixed Platforms

Ships

Drifters & Floats

AUVs

Metadata standards

Datadiscovery

Data transport

Online browse

Data archival

ClimateClimate

Natural HazardsNatural Hazards

SecuritySecurity

Public HealthPublic Health

Ecosystem HealthEcosystem Health

ResourcesResources

DecisionSupport

Tools

Currents &Waves

Water level

Coastalinundation

Waterbornepathogens

PopulationDynamics

EcosystemDynamics

IOOS is an “End–to–End” SystemEfficiently Link 3 Subsystems

Observing –Data Telemetry

IntegratedDMAC

ModelingAnalysis

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Marine ServicesMarine Services

Observing & Data Telemetry SubsystemMulti–Scale System

Resolution

Low

High

CCal Caribb

MAB

GLsNE

SE

GoMexS

Cal

PacNW

Ak

Coastal OceanComponent

NationalBackbone

RegionalObservingSystems

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Global Ocean Component

Coastal Component ofthe IOOS

• Operated by

NOPP Agencies RAs

• EEZ & Great Lakes • Core variables

Required by regions• Networks

Sentinel stations Reference stations

• Standards/Protocols QAQC, DMAC Products

• Based on data & info requirements of users • Regional Associations

Design & Manage Resolution Variables

• Estuaries, Great Lakes, EEZ• Incorporate

Subregional systems Elements thereof

Regional COOS’s

National Backbone

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www.ocean.us

First Development Plan

Completed by Ocean.US

December 2004

Approved at Cabinet level by the

Interagency Committee onOcean Science & Resource

Management (ICOSRMI)

January 2006

DMAC Plan

• Completed & Approved in 2005

• Provides a Road Map for Implementing Interoperable Mechanisms that Enable Rapid access to diverse data From many sources

• With the completion of the DMAC plan, Ocean.US is turning its attention to

The Modeling & Analysis Subsystem

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The 1st IOOS Development Plan calls for a modeling effort that will

• Improve, develop, test & validate operational models for all seven societal goals;

• Produce more accurate & comprehensive estimates of current states of the marine environment, ecosystems & living resources;

• Improve, develop & apply data assimilation techniques to initialize & update models for more accurate forecasts of state changes; &

• Optimize the observing subsystem to achieve these objectives

The broad objective is to tune the delivery of model-derived products to

the time-space scales on which decisions need to be made to achieve the societal goals.

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Next steps

• Promote synergy between research & operational modeling activities

• Promote improvements in existing operational models

• Enable development of operational modeling capabilities in goal areas where none now exist

• Engage Federal Agencies, RAs & other stakeholders in the design & implementation of the modeling & analysis

subsystem of IOOS

• Establish a Modeling & Analysis Steering Team (MAST) to Address these Objecives

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MAST MembersChairman: Chris Mooers

Co – Chairs: C.J. Beegle – Krause & Frank Aikman

• Climate & Marine Meteorology

Michele Reinecker (NASA) Steve Payne (Navy) Fred Toepfer (NOAA)

• Coastal Circulation, Inundation & Waves

Frank Bub (Navy) Dale Crockett (TX WDB) Eoin Howlett (ASA) Richard Luettich (UNC) John Harding (Navy)

• Watershed Hydrology

Richard Alexander (USGS)

• Biogeochemistry

Jorge Sarmiento (Princeton)

• Ecosystem Dynamics Fisheries & Water Quality

Carl Cerco (USACE) John Wilkin (Rutgers) Eileen Hofmann (ODU) Anne Hollowed (NOAA)

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Mission of MAST

• Enhance collaboration between operational & research modeling groups

• Establish & maintain an inventory of operational & research modeling capabilities relevant to addressing the 7 societal benefits

• Assess performance & skill of existing & emerging operational capabilities in terms of user needs & recommend improvement

• Develop community consensus for a research agenda that will help improve operational modeling capabilities

• Facilitate transitions of models & model improvements from research to operational use

• Assess & recommend improvements to the observing & DMAC subsystems through the use of test beds & OSSEs/OSEs

• Explore the use & efficacy of Community Modeling Networks as a mechanism for achieving these objectives

• Work with the NOPP, Federal Agencies & other groups as appropriate to attract the required funding

Prepare a 5 – Year Strategic Plan with a Prioritized Action Plan &Budget to Achieve The Following Objectives:

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IOOS Community Modeling Workshop28 – 29 November 2006

• Objectives Review present status of operational global & coastal

models Identify R&D needed to advance operational modeling for all

7 societal goals Provide guidance for preparing the MAST Strategic Plan Provide guidance for the MAST CY 07 Action Plan

• Deliverables Annotated outline of the MAST Strategic Plan Recommend short– & long–term priorities for MAST

activities Workshop Proceedings

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RCOOS/ORION Science and Technology Workshop 2007

• Organizing Committee Physical Oceanography, Chris Mooers/RSMAS (SEACOOS/MAST) Marine Biogeochemistry, Rick Jahnke/SKIO (SEACOOS/ORION) Marine Ecology, Mark Moline/CalPoly (CENCOOS & SCCOOS/ALPS)

• Issues Developing the network of sustained observations needed to meet data

requirements of models for all 7 societal goals Building scientifically sound operational IOOS capabilities

• Participants 3 experts from each RA Coastal physical oceanographer or meteorologist, biogeochemist, & marine

ecologis Representatives from DMAC, MAST & ORION

• Tentative Objectives: Consensus on The scientific questions that need to be answered to enable credible &

periodic estimates of the State of the Coastal Ocean regionally? The critical missing observational & modeling capabilities & priorities for

filling them? How RAs/RCOOSs & ORION/OOI can best collaborate to enable synergy

between IOOS & major ocean research programs

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THANK YOU

Societal Goals & Example Products Used to Determine Observing System Requirements

• Climate Prediction Annual estimates of regional–global sea level changes w/ error bars Annual quantitative assessments of the impact of global warming on the frequency &

magnitude of tropical & extra–tropical stomrs• Maritime Operations & National/Homeland Security

Hourly mesoscale nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of water levels & 3–D current, temperature & salinity fields

Hourly mesoscale nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of sea surface vector wind & wave fields & surf conditions

• Natural Hazards Hourly 72 hr forecasts of the time–space extent of coastal flooding caused by

tsunamis, tropical storms & extratropical storms Annual assessments of changes in resilience of coastal populations & infrastructure

to coastal flooding • Public Health

Hourly nowcasts & 72 hr forecasts of plumes from large permitted dischargers Hourly 72 hr forecasts of impacts of HABs on coastal habitats, living marine

resources & human health• Ecosystem Health

Annual quantitative assessments of the condition of coastal ecosystems in terms of (i) habitat & species diversity; (ii) water quality; & (iii) near shore bathymetry–topography

Annual assessments of the effects of global warming on the condition of coastal ecosystems as quantified above

• Living Marine Resources Annual estimates of recruitment rates for exploitable fish stocks w/ error bars Annual assessments of the efficacy of Marine Protected Areas in terms of the extent

& condition of habitats & the abundance & distribution of living resources 20

Existing Operational Capabilities

Marine WeatherMarine OpsHurricanes

Ecosystem – BasedManagement

Investments in R & D

Op

erat

ion

al

Cap

abil

itie

s

OperationalStatus High

OperationalStatus Low

Public HealthWater Quality

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InformedDecisions

Design of an End– to– End

System

7 IOOSSocietal

Goals

Analysis &Modeling

DMAC

Observations &Data Telemetry

Research&

Development

ImproveOperationalCapabilities

EnableScience

CoordinatedDevelopment of

an IntegratedSystem

ResearchPriorities

UsersRequirements

Ocean.US & RAaPlan & Coordinate

Federal Agencies & RAsImplement

Data &Information

IOOS

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Committee on Ocean PolicyChair CEQ

(Cabinet Level)

Interagency Committee onOcean Science &

Resource ManagementIntegration (ICOSRMI)

Co-Chairs: OSTP & CEQ

JSOST SIMOR

ORRAPNSC PCC

GlobalEnvironment

Ocean.USNFRA

IWGOO

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President’s Ocean Action Plan

Observing Requirements: Remote Sensing

Sustain & Improve Satellite Time-Series Surface winds, temperature, waves, currents Sea surface height Ocean color

~ 50 % Implemented

Global Coastal