USGA Score Probability

Have you ever wondered what the odds are that a player shoots a particular score? This

article contains a table provided by the USGA that answers this question for any golf

course, and a series of tables that answers this question for Nagawaukee Golf Course

from the white tees.

First, let’s look at the USGA probability table. With just a little math, a person can use

this table to calculate the odds of shooting a particular score at any USGA rated golf course.

USGA Probability Table

Player Course Handicap Net

Differential 0-5 6-12 13-21 22-30 Greater than 30

0 5 5 6 5 5

-1 10 10 10 8 7

-2 23 22 21 13 10

-3 57 51 43 23 15

-4 151 121 87 40 22

-5 379 276 174 72 35

-6 790 536 323 130 60

-7 2349 1200 552 229 101

-8 20111 4467 1138 382 185

-9 48219 27877 3577 695 359

-10 125000 84300 37000 1650 874

The values in the table above are the odds of shooting a net differential* EQUAL TO OR BETTER THAN the number in the left column.

*A net differential is the subtraction of a player's Handicap Index from the Handicap

Differential for a particular score. This becomes a negative value when the player scores

much better than the player's Handicap Index.

Example: A player with a Handicap Index of 10.0 shoots a 74 from a set of tees with a USGA Course Rating of 70.4 and a Slope Rating of 123.

(74 – 70.4) = 3.6 x 113 / 123 = 3.3 Handicap Differential

3.3 - 10.0 = - 6.7 Net Differential (round to -7)

From the chart above, the odds are 1200 to 1 of this occurring.

Appling the equation above to Nagawaukee course and slope ratings from the white

tees we have created the tables below.

Nagawaukee Probability Tables from White Tees

Handicap Index

Gross Score 0 1 2 3 4 5

68 23 57 151 379 790 2349

69 10 23 57 151 379 790

70 5 10 23 57 151 379

71 8 17 40 104 265

72 5 10 23 57 151

73 5 10 23 57

74 5 10 23

75 5 10

76 5

Handicap Index

Gross Score 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

68 4467 27877 84300

69 1200 4467 27877 84300

70 536 1200 4467 27877 84300

71 406 868 2834 16172 56089 84300

72 276 536 1200 4467 27877 56089

73 121 276 536 1200 4467 27877 84300

74 51 121 276 536 1200 4467 27877

75 22 51 121 276 536 1200 4467

76 10 22 51 121 276 536 1200

77 5 10 22 51 121 276 536

78 5 10 22 51 121 276

79 5 10 22 51 121

80 5 10 22 51

81 5 10 22

82 5 10

83 7

84 5

Handicap Index

Gross Score 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

74 37000

75 3577 37000

76 1138 3577 37000

77 552 1138 3577 37000

78 323 552 1138 3577 37000

79 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000

80 87 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000

81 43 87 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000

82 21 43 87 174 323 552 1138 3577 37000

83 16 32 65 131 249 438 845 2358 20289

84 10 21 43 87 174 323 552 1138 3577

85 5 10 21 43 87 174 323 552 1138

86 5 10 21 43 87 174 323 552

87 5 10 21 43 87 174 323

88 5 10 21 43 87 174

89 5 10 21 43 87

90 5 10 21 43

91 5 10 21

92 5 10

93 5

Handicap Index

Gross Score 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

83 1650

84 1173

85 695 1650

86 382 695 1650

87 229 382 695 1650

88 130 229 382 695 1650

89 72 130 229 382 695 1650

90 40 72 130 229 382 695 1650

91 23 40 72 130 229 382 695 1650

92 13 23 40 72 130 229 382 695 1650

93 8 13 23 40 72 130 229 382 695

94 5 8 13 23 40 72 130 229 382

95 5 8 13 23 40 72 130 229

96 7 11 18 32 56 101 180

97 5 8 13 23 40 72 130

98 5 8 13 23 40 72

99 5 8 13 23 40

100 5 8 13 23

101 5 8 13

102 5 8

103 5

Handicap Index

Gross Score 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

93 874

94 359 874

95 185 359 874

96 101 185 359 874

97 81 143 272 617

98 60 101 185 359 874

99 35 60 101 185 359 874

100 22 35 60 101 185 359 874

101 15 22 35 60 101 185 359 874

102 10 15 22 35 60 101 185 359 874

103 7 10 15 22 35 60 101 185 359 874

104 5 7 10 15 22 35 60 101 185 359

105 5 7 10 15 22 35 60 101 185

106 5 7 10 15 22 35 60 101

107 5 7 10 15 22 35 60

108 6 9 13 19 29 48

109 5 7 10 15 22 35

110 5 7 10 15 22

111 5 7 10 15

112 5 7 10

113 5 7

114 5