using bayesian networks for water quality prediction in sydney harbour interim presentation name:...
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![Page 1: Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in Sydney Harbour Interim Presentation Name: Shannon Watson Supervisors: Ann Nicholson & Charles Twardy](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d415503460f94a1cb35/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in
Sydney Harbour
Interim PresentationName: Shannon Watson
Supervisors: Ann Nicholson & Charles Twardy
![Page 2: Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in Sydney Harbour Interim Presentation Name: Shannon Watson Supervisors: Ann Nicholson & Charles Twardy](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d415503460f94a1cb35/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction The application domain Bayesian Networks Knowledge Engineering Conclusion
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The domain Water quality issue within
the Sydney community for recreation use
Beach watch program to monitor water quality using visual indicators
- is pollution showing etc
But bacteria sampling shows that visually appealing water can contain harmful pathogens
Test beaches for bacteria
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The domain Deep ocean outfalls were commissioned
Reduction in levels of bacteria -improved water quality
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The domain Beaches in the harbour
still have high levels of bacteria though,
No bacteria entering through sewage
Only surface runoff/storm water overflow
Have tried to understand the relationship through modeling
![Page 6: Using Bayesian Networks for Water Quality Prediction in Sydney Harbour Interim Presentation Name: Shannon Watson Supervisors: Ann Nicholson & Charles Twardy](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d415503460f94a1cb35/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Past studies Hose et al. used multi
dimension scaling model of Sydney harbour
unable to handle the noisy bacteria samples
Other models Wasps / CE-QAUL-W2- used in the US to model estuaries
EPA in Sydney want a model that can use knowledge of causal structure
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Sydney Harbour Modeling the pollution(bacteria) in
the harbour- Using Bayesian networks
- Can handle noisy data sets - Take advantage of causal
structure
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Bayesian Networks Graphical structure allows non-
technical people to understand a technical model.
Have been used by R.J. Kennett, a past honours student at Monash, to predict the sea breeze
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Bayesian Networks – An example
Decide_Umbrella
Take ItLeave At...
Forecast
SunnyCloudyRainy
33.333.333.3
Weather
No RainRain
50.050.0
Satisfaction
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Example cont.
Decide_Umbrella
Take ItLeave At...
Forecast
SunnyCloudyRainy
53.521.525.0
Weather
No RainRain
70.030.0
Satisfaction
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Knowledge Engineering Used to keep structure of large projects in
software engineering discipline Two major implementations
-Spiral model/Waterfall Model Demonstrate how Knowledge Engineering can
be used in the application of Bayesian Networks, as there is currently no literature on how to create large Bayesian networks
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Spiral Model
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Conclusion Use Bayesian networks Create a model of Sydney harbour Aim to predict the water quality for
EPA Use Spiral Model
Questions