using the american community survey to create a national academy of sciences-style poverty measure...
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Using the American Community Survey to Create a National Academy of Sciences-Style Poverty Measure
Work by the New York City Center for Economic Opportunity
CEO’s Mandate, Direction, & Key Challenge
• Create a more useful tool for policymaking
• Adopt NAS recommendations
– Capture policy effects
– Create realistic poverty thresholds
• Employ American Community Survey– Large annual sample for NYC
– But ACS does not include much of what is needed to measure family resources as recommended by NAS
The Official Poverty MeasureAn Income Adequacy Approach
Threshold:
– Established in the mid-1960s at three times the cost of the USDA’s “Economy Food Plan”
– Adjusted annually by the change in the Consumer Price Index
– Uniform across the U.S.
Resources:
– Total family pre-tax cash income
What’s wrong with the current measure? Definition of resources is too narrow
Pre-tax cash does not capture much of what public policy does to support low-income families.
– EITC and other refundable tax credits– Food Stamps and other nutritional programs– Housing subsidies such as public housing and
section 8 housing vouchers
What’s wrong with the current measure? Food is no longer one-third of family expenditures
Utilities6.2%
Clothing4.4%
Other21.3%
Housing31.7%Transportation
18.5%
Healthcare4.6%
Food13.2%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.
What’s wrong with the current measure? Threshold has lost value relative to median family income
137%
90
100
110
120
130
140
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
19
64
=1
00
Pe
rce
nt
Median Family Income Poverty Threshold
Source: US Bureau of the Census
What’s wrong with the current measure? Threshold does not reflect the high cost of living in NYC
Source: US Department of Housing and Urban Development
Fair Market Rents, Two Bedroom Apartment
$498$805 $871 $932 $944
$1,318$1,529 $1,592
$867
$0$400$800
$1,200$1,600$2,000
Carro
ll Coun
ty, M
S
Detro
it, M
I
Dallas
, TX
Philad
elphi
a, P
A
Chica
go, I
L
New Y
ork, N
Y
Nassa
u-Suf
folk,
NY
San F
ranc
isco,
CA
US Ave
rage
HUD FMR Area
Mon
thly
Ren
t
Thresholds based on a percentage (80.5) of median annual reference family expenditures for these necessities:
– Food– Clothing– Shelter– Utilities
• Plus a little more for miscellaneous expenses (x 1.2)• Adjusted for inter-area differences in housing costs (via HUD FMRs)
Resources based on annual income available to family to obtain items in threshold including:
– Cash Income, after-taxes– Value of in-kind subsidies for
food– Adjustment for Housing
Status– Deduction for work-related
expenses (child care and transportation)
– Deduction for medical out-of-
pocket expenses (MOOP)
CEO Application of NAS Method
Creation of the CEO Poverty Threshold Reference Family (Two adults, Two children), 2006
Source: US Bureau of the Census and US Dept. of Housing and Urban Development
NAS Threshold for entire U.S. (based on food, clothing, shelter & utilities)
$21,818
Shelter & Utility Share, 44% of $21,818 = $9,600
Non-Shelter & Utility Share, 56% of $21,818 = $12,218
Shelter & Utility Share, Adjusted for Ratio of NYC/US Fair Market Rent (1.45) =
$13,920
CEO Threshold: Adjusted Shelter &
Utility Share + Non-Shelter & Utility Share = $26,138
2006 Poverty Rates Using CEO Threshold With Alternative Income Concepts
Source: NYC CEO.
Income Concept: Rate:
1. Pre-tax cash 23.9
2. After-tax 23.2
3. After-tax, plus Nutritional Assistance 21.8
4. After-tax, plus Nutritional, plus Housing
Status Adjustment18.6
5. After-tax, plus Nutritional, plus Housing,
minus Work-Related Expenses20.4
6. After-tax, plus Nutritional, plus Housing,
minus Work-Related Expenses, minus MOOP23.0
Distribution of Population,By Intervals of the Poverty Threshold:
Source: NYC CEO
Percent of Threshold
Poverty Measure
CEO OFFICIAL
Percent of population
Cumulative percent
Percent of population
Cumulative percent
Under 50 6.5 6.5 7.4 7.4
50-74 6.9 13.4 4.7 12.1
75-99 9.6 23.0 5.8 18.0
100-124 11.1 34.1 5.0 23.0
125-149 10.2 44.3 4.8 27.8
Comparing Poverty Rates, By Age Group
26.6
20.0
32.027.2
14.518.1
0
10
20
30
40
Under 18 18 thru 64 65 & up
Age Group
Perc
ent
CEO OFFICIAL
Source: NYC CEO
Comparing Poverty Rates, By Family Type
15.8
36.5
16.113.9
37.3
7.9
0
10
20
30
40
Two-Parent Single-Parent No Children
Per
cent
CEO Official
Source: NYC CEO
Comparing Poverty Rates Using Different Resource Measures, By Age
33.9
19.5
27.526.6
20.0
32.0
0
10
20
30
40
Under 18 18 to 64 65 and over
Per
cent
Official resource measure NAS resource measure
Source: NYC CEO
Comparing Poverty Rates Using Different Resource Measures, By Family Type
20.0
45.7
13.715.8
36.5
16.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
Two-Parent Single-Parent No Children
Per
cent
Official resource measure NAS resource measure
Source: NYC CEO
Comparing Poverty Rates, By Nativity/Citizenship
21.8 21.6
28.6
18.6
13.3
20.7
0
10
20
30
40
Citizen by birth Foreign born, naturalizedcitizen
Not a citizen
Perc
ent
CEO OFFICIAL
Source: NYC CEO
Comparing Poverty Rates, By Race/Ethnicity
16.3
23.925.9
29.7
10.0
20.718.0
25.8
0
10
20
30
40
Non-HispanicWhite
Non-HispanicBlack
Non-HispanicAsian
Hispanic, any race
Perc
ent
CEO OFFICIAL
Source: NYC CEO
CEO’s Current Work
• Track change over time
• Assist similar efforts by other cities and states
• Bring poverty measure into City policy planning
• Advocate for change in federal measure
For More Information
• CEO Poverty Measurement Report: http://www.nyc.gov/ceo/