Vancouver Youth Model United Nations

2017

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

Background Guide

Director: Anna Cumming

Chair: Chris Lu

Assistant Director: Tyler Yen

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Vancouver Youth Model United Nations 2017

Dear Delegates, My name is Anna Cumming and it is my pleasure to be your director of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for VYMUN 2017. As

your director, I hope to nurture an educational and exciting experience that leads to self-discovery at VYMUN 2017. This year, we will examine two topics: re-negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and enhancing regional security measures. Our first topic, the re-negotiation of the Trans-Pacific partnership, is a paramount topic that is relevant to us, Canada, as well as ASEAN. The very basis of the agreement is to stimulate inclusive economic growth with all participating member states. This is parallel to ASEAN’s main focus: inclusive growth. Over the past couple of months, the United States has withdrawn from the TPP and has presented a variety of new challenges for all nations involved. Very few international treaties work without the support of the United States. Beneficiaries involving the United States are now hesitant to go through with the agreement, and it is of utmost importance for ASEAN to determine how to make this treaty attractive to all. Our second topic, enhancing regional Security, is a broad one. It involves numerous economic, social, and military challenges that affect ASEAN. First off, the South China Sea involves the potential militarization of the area, which members would like to avoid at all costs. Similarly, the lack of support and preparation in case of an environmental emergency poses a threat to the region. Specific circumstances, namely the drug war in the Philippines, has brought up the question of certain views and morals. All delegates must keep an open mind during this topic, and keep in mind the policies for every unique situation. If you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to contact me at asean@vymun.com. I look forward to seeing everyone in October. Sincerely, Anna Cumming Director of ASEAN | VYMUN 2017

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Table of Contents: Topic 1

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Questions to Consider 4 Overview

4 Timeline

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Past International Action

9 Current Situation

10 Possible Solutions

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Bloc Positions

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Sources Cited

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Topic 2

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Questions to Consider 21 Overview

21 Timeline

24 Past International Action

28 Current Situation

30 Possible Solutions

33 Bloc Positions

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Sources Cited 36

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Topic 1: Re-negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Questions to Consider:

1. Is resurrecting the TPP worth it for smaller, developing economies? 2. How would including China in the deal tighten ties between Asian nations and

decrease America’s power? 3. In what ways can ASEAN speed up the process of ratification? 4. In what areas of the TPP should nations reconsider and renegotiate?

Overview:

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free-trade agreement involving 12 countries that has been widely referred to as “the new NAFTA”. The TPP’s purpose is to create a free trade zone with the 12 participating nations, all surrounding the Pacific. Its international prominence has increased over the past year and a half, starting in February of 2016 when the final draft was signed. There were 12 original signatories: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the United States of America. Since then, the United States of America has withdrawn from the deal, and the repercussions are still being felt today.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership serves to build on top of the Trans-Pacific Strategic

Economic Partnership Agreement (TPSEP), a smaller treaty between Brunei Darussalam, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore. Another name for this agreement is ‘P4’ standing for the Pacific Four. All of these four nations are also involved in the TPP. The TPSEP was

signed on July 18th, 2005 and went into full effect on May 28th, 2006. Between all nations involved, the combined population was 28 million as of 2014, and a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $762 million USD. Its main purposes was to allow easier access to the markets of the nations involved, to make trading between

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them less difficult, and to have a distinct process for settling disputes between their respective nations. The trade agreement had substantial benefits for all parties involved, 1

which is perhaps why many nations were attracted to the idea of a larger-scale free-trade agreement, the TPP. Since the TPSEP came into force, it has created a positive economic stimulus for all nations, as “New Zealand has seen its exports to Chile grow to $145 million, exports to Singapore have doubled to more than $1 billion, and exports to Brunei although still modest, have more than doubled.” (New Zealand Foreign Affairs and Trade) In the most recent 8 years, more countries had joined the free-trade agreement, birthing a new name: the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The purpose of the Trans-Pacific Partnership is to deepen economic ties between

all nations and foster inclusive economic growth amongst them. In short, a free trade agreement increases the trade of goods through different countries by reducing tariffs and taxes and by implementing multilateral regulations regarding labour and the environment. What is unique about this specific agreement is that unlike the North Atlantic Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the TPP spans across

more than just one continent. It includes countries from North America, South America, and Asia. Together, the 12 nations can form an economic powerhouse and account for approximately 40% of the globe’s economic output. Also, the combined gross domestic product of all 12 member states adds up to an estimated $28.5 trillion CAD. Together, 2

the 12 nations represent 800 million citizens. 3

1 New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. "Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (P4)." New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 May 2017. 2 Curry, Bill. "What Is TPP? Understanding the New Pacific Trade deal." The Globe and Mail. N.p., 05 Oct. 2015. Web. 22 May 2017. 3 Government of Canada, Foreign Affairs Trade and Development Canada, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Assistant Deputy Minister Public Affairs, Corporate Communications, Deputy Minister of International Trade, Communications Bureau (International Trade). "Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) - History of the TPP." GAC. Government of Canada, 17 Jan. 2017. Web. 22 May 2017.

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It is important to differentiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership from the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, although they share some similarities. One of the similarities between the two agreements are that they both have or will significantly reduce or eliminate tariffs on a vast range of resources and services. If the TPP is ratified, it could cut very close to 18,000 tariffs. Former President of the United States Barack 4

Obama stated that, “NAFTA failed to require a minimum wage, ban workplace discrimination, protect the right to form a union and bargain collectively, or prohibit child and forced labor.” The TPP addresses all of these respective topics. There are six main 5

goals of the Trans-Pacific Partnership which fall into two separate categories. The first three, expected to be achieved through the cutting of trade and export costs, are to promote inclusive economic growth, encourage productivity and innovation, and to create jobs. The final three goals have the intention to protect consumers and service by reducing poverty, improving standards of living, and increasing governmental transparency.

The TPP is not limited or exclusive to countries of a higher gross domestic product

(GDP). The TPP opens up trading opportunities and economic growth for less developed nations, namely Brunei Darussalam, Peru, and Vietnam. All countries participating in the TPP are expected to abide by international labour laws, essentially forcing them to improve workplace conditions. In developed countries, their workers wages will be expected to raise a mere 0.6%, whereas in developing nations with already low wages and an unskilled labour base, the minimum wage is expected to eventually rise by an estimated 14%. The TPP requires that all members abide by strict anti-corruption 6

regulations to encourage governments to improve labour laws. Once the Trans-Pacific Partnership is officially put in place, economic changes are

projected for member states involved in the agreement, as well as surrounding countries. The nations involved are already considered powerful by the international community, and the TPP will only elevate this status. It is estimated that by 2030, the gross domestic product (GDP) of each country involved in the deal will increase between 0.4%-10%. Also, each country’s trade activity is expected to increase by an estimated 11%. 7

4 Fergussen, Ian, Mark McMinimy, and Brock Williams. “The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief” 5 Quora. "President Obama Explains The Difference Between TPP And NAFTA In Layman's Terms." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 28 Oct. 2016. Web. 22 May 2017. 6 Fergussen, Ian, Mark McMinimy, and Brock Williams. “The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief” 7 Lakatos, Csilla. "The Trans Pacific Partnership, China and India." (2014): n. pag. World Bank. Web.

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Other than the obvious economic benefits, some argue that the prime beneficiaries of the Trans-Pacific Partnership are citizens making more than $88,000 USD. Free trade agreements often encourage the purchasing of cheaper resources from developing countries, contributing to income inequality in developed countries. Income inequality is the extent to which income is distributed in an uneven way among a population.

The TPP differentiates itself from the problematic aspects of NAFTA, currently

the world’s largest free trade agreement. The treaty could potentially help the problem of child trafficking, discriminatory labour, as well as protecting the environment through new regulations. However, critics are skeptical of how beneficial the TPP will really be to certain countries in the deal. It is hard to predict if the treaty will benefit all nations involved. It is essential for the countries to re-negotiate this partnership to insure that all signatories become primary beneficiaries.

Timeline: 2003: The TPSEP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership) is formulated by Chile, Singapore, and New Zealand. 2005: Brunei joins the negotiations of the TPSEP alongside Chile, Singapore, and New Zealand. From this, P4 (Pacific Four) is born. July 18th, 2005: The TPSEP is signed. May 28th, 2006: The TPSEP’s negotiations are concluded, with Chile, Brunei, Singapore, and New Zealand as signatories. March 22nd, 2008: The United States of America becomes interested in the TPSEP. President George Bush notifies Congress that he will discuss with existing members of the deal (Chile, Brunei, Singapore, and New Zealand) September 22nd, 2008: The United States of America negotiates with already existing members: Chile, Brunei, Singapore, and New Zealand.

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November, 2008: In the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation of 2008, in Lima, Peru, Australia, Peru, and Vietnam formally express their personal interest in the TPSEP. December 30th, 2008: George W. Bush’s administration joins the conversation with Australia, Peru, and Vietnam regarding the TPSEP. November 14th, 2009: After being elected President of the United States, Barack Obama’s administration decides to formally commit itself to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Obama stated that the United States joins the agreement “with the goal of shaping a regional agreement that will have broad-based membership and the high standards worthy of a 21st -century trade agreement.” 8

March 15th-19th, 2010: The first session of negotiations take place between Chile, Brunei, New Zealand, Singapore in conjunction with the United States, Peru, Australia and Vietnam in Melbourne, Australia. October 5th, 2010: As a consensus, the current negotiators of the deal agree to include Malaysia in the TPP. Malaysia officially becomes a part of the treaty. November 8th, 2011: Negotiating partners announce a blueprint for the free-trade deal during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in Honolulu, Hawaii. December, 2011: Canada, Japan, and Mexico begin discussions on the possibility of joining the TPP through negotiations. December 1st, 7th, 2011: The United States Trade Representative grants the three nations a 90-day comment period. June 18th-19th, 2012: TPP members allow both Canada and Mexico to be a part of the discussion through consensus. July, 2013: Japan joins the negotiations.

8 "» Brief Overview." RSS. United States-New Zealand Council, 2014. Web. 01 June 2017.

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August 22nd-30th, 2013: The nineteenth session is held in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam. October 4th, 2015: Trade Ministers of the Trans-Pacific Partnership finally conclude negotiations. January 26th, 2016: New Zealand releases the verified text of the TPP. February 4th, 2016: The official signing ceremony of the Trans-Pacific Partnership takes place in Auckland, New Zealand. January 23rd, 2017: Three days after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the United States of America withdraws from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. May 21st, 2017: Ministers that are responsible for trade between the nations participating in the TPP discuss the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The decide to launch a program the would explore options to bring the agreement to full force. They also discuss how to facilitate membership for original signatories, in spite of the United States of America dropping out of the deal.

Past International Action:

Agreements similar to Trans-Pacific Partnership have been in negotiation for over a decade now. Initially, the idea of a widespread and inclusive free-trade agreement was brought up in the form of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPSEP). The TPSEP was launched on the sidelines of the 2002 Asia-Pacific Economic Partnership between New Zealand, Chile, as well as Singapore. This agreement was intended to “create a comprehensive, forward-looking trade agreement that set high-quality benchmarks on trade rules, and help to promote trade liberalisation and facilitate trade within the APEC region.” Later on a fourth member, Brunei Darussalam, joined the 9

treaty. This group of four was dubbed the “Pacific Four”. New Zealand, Chile, and Singapore all signed the treaty on July 18th, 2005 while Brunei Darussalam signed the

9 "New Zealand Treaties Register Database." New Zealand Treaties Online - Details. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 June 2017.

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TPSEP on August 2nd, 2005. It entered into force in 2006 for the three original nations, and in 2009 for Brunei.

In 2008, President George Bush and his administration announced their interest in possibly being a part of this deal. The United States identified the economic benefits to being involved with the TPSEP. First off, it had the potential to set American businesses up for success in regards to competing in the Asian-Pacific region. Geopolitical concerns influenced the United States to become a part of this deal, too. The growing power of China on the international stage served as an incentive to become involved. The Asian-Pacific region has become an anchor in terms of United States strategic relationships to control the rise of communism and to counter China’s increasing international power. The United States initially got involved through offering financial services and investments into the deal. In September of 2008, the United States of America begins TPSEP negotiations and takes charge of the agreement as a whole. The US’s goal for the treaty was to expand invitations to other nations such as Australia, Peru, and Vietnam.

Unfortunately for Chile and Peru, the overtaking of this deal by the United States

was not expected, and in some cases not welcome either. This event raised fears from the two Latin-American countries who were already involved in their own respective free-trade agreements with the States. A Chilean columnist, Sebastian Herrero’s, voiced his concerns about how countries with economic sensitivity would end up “paying twice” In summation, both Chile and Peru were concerned with the policies and rules that the 10

United States would implement, and stressed that they would be unattainable for less-wealthy and/or developing nations.

From this, the United States of America was driven to transform the TPSEP in the

TPP. It was evident to other nations at this point that it would be a costly and time-consuming commitment for all parties involved.

Current Situation:

10 Rajamoorthy, T. "The Origins and Evolutions of the Trans-Pacific Partnership."GlobalResearch. N.p., 13 July 2011. Web.

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Currently, the possibility of the ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership has been greatly threatened by the United States’ withdrawal. A study from researchers at Tufts University declared that the TPP would result in a loss of 770,000 jobs between 11

all existing members. Based on the rhetoric from President Trump, it is clear that his withdrawal was an attempt to prioritize his own citizens before the international community. It is a common misconception that the United States’ role in the deal decides whether or not the TPP will be ratified. This is untrue, although it will be difficult without the help of the US. This FTA (free-trade agreement) has numerous attributes that are worth fighting for, nevertheless. Here, the main aspects of the TPP are stated. They apply to all member-states:

Firstly, the economic benefits alone act as a major incentive to work towards a revised TPP in the future. It will eventually cut all tariffs on a majority of manufactured

goods and all agricultural products within 3-16 years of it being put in force. The TPP’s Custom Administration and Trade Facilitation chapter exists to make the exporting and importing of goods within TPP member states run smoothly. For example, smaller businesses often have a

difficult time moving their products across borders without lengthy inspections of their goods. Small businesses often rely on their quality of customer service to insure success, but border crossings slow down the process of supplying their customers. The TPP states that all goods shall be released before 48 hours in border control, to make sure that goods are passed on as quickly as possible. To indemnify transparency amongst all TPP

11 Fergussen, Ian, Mark McMinimy, and Brock Williams. “The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP): In Brief”

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members, the Custom Administration and Trade Facilitation chapter requires that all nations publish their custom laws. 12

The current Trans-Pacific Partnership full text incorporates a chapter that is

dedicated to keeping the foods sanitary and safe for all consumers: the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) chapter. It states clearly that science-based sanitary and phytosanitary measures are effective in order to make that the food is safe, and to ensure the safety of both plants and animals in the process.

The full text of the Trans Pacific Partnership has an investments chapter, which clearly states the obligations of investors in the agreement. It works hard to provide a minimum standard of treatment towards investors, such as allowing protection against denial of justice and the right to be protected by law enforcement if need be. Signatories identified that some TPP nations may not always act in the investor’s best interest, and that is why the deal states that, “if a TPP government expropriates an investment, it does so for a public purpose, in accordance with due process of law, and subject to prompt, adequate and fully realizable and transferable compensation.” In short, if a nation 13

decides to terminate an investment, it must be with good reasoning, along with substantial evidence that it is for the country as a whole. Another aspect of the investment chapter emphasizes the importance of the inclusion of everyone, regardless of their nationality. The full text ensures that investors have the right to appoint senior managers from any nation, and without restrictions. Also, any nationality-related restrictions on specific board members may not restrict their ability to control their investments. All of the nations involved in the TPP have agreed to these terms on a “negative-list basis”. This means that unless otherwise negotiated or stated, TPP signatories must abide by the terms explained to them.

Nations also have the right to deny investments if it is evident that they are trying

to take advantage of treaty rights but still lack business activity in the country. These “shell companies” are often created for the sole purpose to take advantage of benefits. In recent years, the controversy over shell companies has elevated greatly. Some use shell 14

companies out of their own greed and selfishness. Many people transfer their own

12 Trans-Pacific Partnership Full Text 13 Trans Pacific Partnership Full Text 14 Shecter, Barbara. "Here’s How the Shell Companies Exposed in the Panama Papers Work."Financial Post. N.p., 05 Apr. 2016. Web. 23 June 2017.

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personal assets to offshore holding companies in order to keep their money confidential. In Canada, for example, laws state that offshore holding companies do not have to disclose the directors, making it tremendously simple to keep their assets under wraps. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and its investors intend to be transparent when it comes to investor-state disputes. Arbitral hearings are to be published for the public to see.

The imported goods from other states are to be treated with the same respect and

care of domestic goods being shipped throughout the country. As an example, the goods being shipped from Japan to Canada are to be given the exact same treatment as goods that come from British Columbia to Alberta. The goods from Japan must also be treated similarly to those coming for New Zealand. This way, all TPP nations have a level playing field when it comes to the treatment of their resources and goods. The Government Procurement chapter ensures that technical specifications focus on functional requirements and performance, as opposed to descriptive characters and design. They should be based off of international standards, as opposed to national standards so that all nations follow the same rules.

TPP has the highest and safest labour laws of any free-trade agreement in history.

All parties are to abide by international labour laws set out by the International Labour Organization (ILO). In the TPP forced labour, child labour, and employment discrimination are to be abolished. Minimum wages, working hours, job safety, and job health have all be regulated as well. A significant number of employees that work in the ASEAN nations still suffer from these issues on a daily basis, and the TPP’s aim is to eradicate the horrendous working conditions across the board. Nations with these issues are barred from derogating from the laws that implement fundamental labour rights and govern acceptable working conditions, no matter the circumstances. Failure to enforce these laws result in punishment towards the nation. It is for this reason that speculators suggest that the TPP is not as beneficial to developing nations. To raise the bar on their labour laws will be time consuming and expensive, and will be difficult for expanding and delicate economies. Unfortunately, the problem of forced labour will not simply be fixed by implementing the TPP. With this in mind, TPP signatories have committed to discouraging the importing and exporting of goods that were produced as a result of forced labour. In previous Free Trade Agreement’s with the United States of America, Peru, Panama, Colombia and South Korea have been expected to abide by the same labour laws that the United States does. The laws written in the Trans-Pacific Partnership

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quadruples the number of international citizens that are covered by enforceable labour rights. 15

There are specific rules that have been implemented towards nations with bad

track records when it comes to forced labour, child labour, and workplace discrimination like Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Mexico.

Nations involved in both ASEAN and the TPP face environmental challenges such as wildlife trafficking, illegal fishing and logging, and marine pollution. Not only are these detrimental to the economy, but they threaten the health of humans and their habitats. In the environmental chapter of the trade agreement, the countries involved have negotiated to create enforceable commitments, develop closer cooperation, and to support inclusive and transparent policy making in the future.

In terms of wildlife trade, all TPP parties are a part of the Convention on

International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) to insure that endangered species remain safe and protected. TPP countries have agreed to prohibit the most harmful fisheries’ subsidies, restrain new subsidy programs, and to create more transparency.

Protecting sensitive and biodiverse areas are a priority for The Trans-Pacific

Partnership as well. Peru, Vietnam, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and the Canadian Arctic are all considered to be areas filled with biodiversity.

The United States was one of, if not the most influential players in implementing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Now that the United States has withdrawn, the future of the world’s most progressive trade deal is uncertain. For the United States, the trade deal is in their past, and the current

15 Trans Pacific Partnership Full Text

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administration has no intentions of ever re-considering the Trans-Pacific Partnership. For the remaining nations, however, a trade deal such as the TPP is desirable.

As the United States begins to develop protectionist policies, it creates an

opportunity for China. China is a rising global superpower, one of the reasons why they were excluded from the initial Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Asia is a developing economy, and globalization will bring benefits to the middle class, especially those in ASEAN.

As a comparison, China’s economy is growing at almost three times the rate of the

United States. This is no surprise, however, as China’s population is 1.4 billion, around four times greater than America’s population. The United States has a trade deficit, and abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership has not improved this. The US imports more goods than it exports. On the other hand, China exports a lot more than it imports. Despite this, it will take time before China can catch up to the United States. It’s just a matter of time, however. China’s education system has more university students then students in the European Union and the US combined. The younger generation is demanding higher education.

Right now, the TPP can only come to fruition if it is ratified by 6 countries that make up 85% of the group’s GDP. Unfortunately, the United States of America allotted for 60% of the group’s GDP. Australia, Singapore, and Japan especially are enthusiastic 16

to explore ways to push ahead with the TPP, regardless of the US’s involvement. The American economy is still open to trade with remaining TPP members individually, due to the World Trade Organization’s “Most Favoured Nation” status. Essentially, this means that the United States must treat each nation fairly.

Other than each individual nation trading with the United States, TPP members have parted ways from Washington. It is easier for nations to all be on the same page with rules and regulations. Otherwise, navigating different customs, rules, and regulations between the US and remaining members would be extremely difficult. According to the Malaysian government, the remaining members are discussing the resuscitation of the TPP instead of getting rid of it completely.

16 Capri, Alex. "What's Next For Asia After Trump's America Leaves TPP?" Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 31 Jan. 2017. Web. 23 June 2017.

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Possible Solutions Add China to the Trans-Pacific Partnership:

With an economy almost as large as the United States, including China in the TPP could help nations reach 85% of the group’s GDP with 6 countries, which is the original benchmark for ratification. It is the world’s second largest economy, behind the United States of America. As of 2010, China is the globe’s number one exporter and second largest importer of merchandise goods. The main destinations are the US (17%), the European Union (15.9%), Hong Kong (15.5%), Japan (6.4%) and the Republic of Korea (4.3%). Ninety-four percent of all merchandise exports are manufactured goods, 3.2% agricultural products and 2.7% fuel and mining products. China has made it clear that 17

they would be interested in joining the trade deal, yet are still not included. Analysts say that this was to offset China’s economic and trading power. Their rise in Asia has become a considerable threat to many smaller nations. It is speculated that China has not yet joined the agreement because it is a “high standard trade deal”, and they would have a difficult time adjusting to the TPP’s rigorous rules and regulations that regard the environment and workplace laws. It is up to both China and existing TPP members to determine whether or not a TPP with China would be valuable. Bi-Lateral Agreements with the United States:

American trade advisers are wanting to say goodbye to “lousy trade deals”, and instead say hello to more personal, bilateral trade agreements. Trading with the United States can be valuable for all nations, despite their absence in the TPP. Under the circumstance that the TPP must be eradicated, bi-lateral trade agreements with the United States serves as a fallback option. Bi-lateral trade agreements are easier to organize, as only two countries are involved. The positive effects of the deal can be more easily identified and it can be ratified much faster.

17 Written by Jonathan Eckart, Project Specialist, Economic Growth and Social Inclusion Initiative, World Economic Forum. "8 Things You Need to Know about China's Economy." World Economic Forum. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 June 2017.

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Bloc Positions: United States of America:

The past two Presidents of the United States, George Bush and Barack Obama, were both extremely enthusiastic in regards to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, this changed when a new president came into power January of this year: Donald Trump. Only three days after his presidential inauguration, the United States withdrew from the deal, erasing all of the progress that the past presidential administrations had made over the past 8 years. Donald Trump claims that the trade agreement puts interests in business ahead of jobs for American citizens. Donald Trump blames international trade-deals for a loss of jobs in the United States, and formally withdrawing from the TPP was simply an immense campaign promise that Trump expected to follow through with. Canada:

In January 25th, 2017, Canada’s Liberal government, lead by Justin Trudeau, confirmed that it would eventually sign the TPP. Canadian consumers are expected to benefit from the deal. Canadians can expect to see the prices of their larger items drop over the next couple of years. Namely, the price of auto vehicles are expected to become cheaper. Currently, there is a 6.1% tariff of vehicles coming from Japan, but since Japan is a member of the TPP, this tariff will be phased out in the next five years. Also, Canadian exporters will gain an advantage over non-TPP member states when exporting goods into Asia.

Japan:

Alongside the United States, Japan was the other nation that would lead the TPP to ratification. Now that the US is out of the picture, Japan hopes to still revive the TPP. At first, President Abe considered the deal to be “meaningless” without the leadership of the US, however is now moving forward with a different mindset. Japan does not feel that it needs significant alterations before moving forward with the treaty. Japan has the potential to make significant economic gains in medium sized markets with countries such as Vietnam and Australia.

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New Zealand:

New Zealand shares a similar view with Japan, and still allows the TPP’s doors to be open to the United States even after her formally withdrew from the deal in January. New Zealand is open to allowing other nations into the deal as long as they can abide to the high standard rules regarding labour laws and environmental protection.

China:

China has been excluded from the Trans-Pacific Partnership thus far, but that

could change. China’s rising level of power globally and in the Asian-Pacific has been perceived as a threat and is mainly why they have been excluded. However, now that the United States had withdrawn, members of the TPP are in need of leadership from a nation with a strong economy. Developing Nations in the TPP:

Member states such as Vietnam and Malaysia are now skeptical of the Trans-Pacific Partnership now that the United States has backed out of the deal. Vietnam, for example, would’ve served as a major beneficiary if the United States was still involved. American investment of their economies would’ve been beneficial to both countries alike. Malaysia has voiced their hope that the TPP eventually returns. Nations with poor labour standards:

Vietnam:

Under the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Vietnam must allow it’s employees to join, form, and operate unions. Currently, all workers’ trade unions are regulated by the government controlled trade union confederation. This creates bias, and isas why the TPP has specifically worked with Vietnam to begin to resolve this issue. With the Trans-Pacific Partnership in place, the nation will allow its workers to elect union leaders, adopt rules and regulations, manage their personal affairs, bargain as a union, and strike. If Vietnam fails to comply with its commitment to provide rights to labour unions the right to form labour unions within the next five years, nations have the power to either withhold or suspend tariff reductions for Vietnam.

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Malaysia:

While under the rules and regulations of the TPP, Malaysia plans and agrees to make notable legal and institutional reforms. Malaysia commits to allow human-trafficking victims to reside, work, and travel outside of government facilities. Malaysia also commits to:

a) Increase protections that relate to the withholding of workers’ passports, recruitment fees and practices, contract substitution, housing, freedom of movement

b) Remove restrictions that disallow: i) union formations and strikes ii) bargaining collectively amongst their peers

There is a large number of reforms that Malaysia plans to make if the TPP was to be implemented. Brunei Darussalam:

Recently, thanks to pressure from both the TPP and the ILO, Brunei Darussalam has made substantial changes to their labour laws. Brunei recently eradicated the rule that the government had the power to remove a union’s registration. The Brunei Darussalam implementation plan has committed the nation to reforming its trade union act, as well as their employment order. A minimum wage would be put in place for the very first time in Brunei. Also, worker’s rights and safety will be secured with the TPP.

Mexico:

Mexico has less to work on than Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, but still has some work to do, nevertheless. Right now, Mexico is working on a worker’s right to collective bargaining and union representation rights.

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Conclusion:

The Trans-Pacific Partnership has been considered dead in the water for a lot of critics. Despite this, members of ASEAN have the potential to turn the fate of the TPP around, even with the absence of the United States. TPP members have put years of dedication into ratifying this agreement. In the long term, the agreement significantly reduces tariffs, but some nations may consider the hard journey towards ratification not worth it.

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New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. "Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (P4)." New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 June 2017.

Quora. "President Obama Explains The Difference Between TPP And NAFTA In Layman's Terms." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 28 Oct. 2016. Web. 22 May 2017.   

Rajamoorthy, T. "The Origins and Evolutions of the Trans-Pacific Partnership."GlobalResearch. N.p., 13 July 2011. Web.   

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Shecter, Barbara. "Here’s How the Shell Companies Exposed in the Panama Papers Work." Financial Post. N.p., 05 Apr. 2016. Web. 23 June 2017. 

Smith, Alice Foster and Reiss. "What Is TPP? Why Is Donald Trump Pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership?" Express.co.uk. Express.co.uk, 23 Jan. 2017. Web. 23 June 2017. 

"Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) - Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam." SICE: Trade Policy Developments: Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Foreign Trade Information System, n.d. Web. 23 June 2017. 

"Trans-Pacific-Strategic-Economic-Partnership //." Ministry of Foreign Affairs And Trade. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 June 2017. 

"What Is TPP? Understanding the New Pacific Trade deal." The Globe and Mail. N.p., 05 Oct. 2015. Web. 23 June 2017. 

Written by Andrea Willige, Formative Content. "The World's Top Economy: The US vs China in Five Charts." World Economic Forum. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 June 2017. 

Written by Jonathan Eckart, Project Specialist, Economic Growth and Social Inclusion Initiative, World Economic Forum. "8 Things You Need to Know about China's Economy." World Economic Forum. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 June 2017. 

 

Topic 2: Enhancing Regional Security

Questions to Consider:

1. Would inviting China to ASEAN discussions tame or fuel the fire in regards to the South China Sea Dispute?

2. Which brings more benefits for minimizing losses in natural disasters: developing disaster relief programs or introducing more foreign aid?

3. Should ASEAN look further into Rodrigo Duterte and his potentially unlawful behaviour?

4. What are other aspects that directly cause poverty, other than the unsustainable use of the environment?

Overview:

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations was mainly adopted to santion inclusive economic growth amongst its ten members: Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam,

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Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Brunei Darussalam. As well, the association was developed in order to:

(1) accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavors in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian nations, and

(2) promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries in the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter. 18

Since the formation of ASEAN in 1967 through the Bangkok Declaration, the

group has served to settle disputes within the region as well. Since its creation, no member states have had armed conflicts with another member state, leading to peaceful and productive negotiations. Despite this, there have been border disputes, resulting in the militarization of these borders. Amitav Acharya, a Distinguished Scholar of International Relations at American University in Washington D.C. states that the 19

“lasting peace” between these nations is the result of the community that ASEAN has 20

created. Using these terms, some consider ASEAN to be a “security community” that contributes to the safety of member nations.

After the Bangkok Declaration of 1967, the ASEAN region has not always been

peaceful. For example, militarized border disputes between the countries have resulted in casualties. There have also been questions raised about the protection of human rights within member states. Countries like Burma and Thailand do not have fair policies regarding freedom of expression.

In addition, not all member-states have gotten along. For example, in 2003

Malaysia threatened to cut off Singapore’s water supply, and in 2008 there was a border dispute between Malaysia and Singapore over Pedra Branca.

18 "Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)." Nuclear Threat Initiative - Ten Years of Building a Safer World. NTI, 31 Jan. 2017. Web. 24 June 2017. 19 "Amitav Acharya." Profile Amitav Acharya | Faculty | School of International Service | American University, Washington DC. American University, n.d. Web. 24 June 2017. 20 Potts, Morgan. "ASEAN Is Not a Security Community (Yet)." The Diplomat. The Diplomat, 10 Mar. 2015. Web. 24 June 2017.

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Historically, there has been challenges amongst ASEAN members; however, it also acts as a unifying force. Firstly, it is essential to define the term, “security”. “Security” is to have the absence of violence and the threat of violence. A “community”, as described by Amitav Acharya is a group with a shared identity and common norms. “Security community” is a term coined by Karl Deutsch in 1957 and best defined by him, is a group “with reasonable expectations for lasting peaceful change” – that is, the resolution of disputes by peaceful means. As defined by Merriam-Webster, the term means: “the quality or state of being secure”. 21

The main aspects that ASEAN considers to be a threat to regional security is as

follows: poverty, environmental degradation, threats to health, infectious diseases, natural disasters, and transnational crimes.

Poverty has been a threat to safety and security since the beginning of time. However, all nations have made significant strides towards achieving the 2015

Millennium Development Goal: to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty, decreasing the problem by 50% by 2015. Between 2014-2016, according to the world bank, 256.2 22

million people in South Asia were living below the poverty line and living off of $1.90 USD a day. A significant number of citizens living under the poverty line have a 23

dependency on the environment for food, housing, and source of income. Similarly, a majority of impoverished citizens live in rural, biodiverse areas instead of living in busy cities. Environmental earnings are crucial in order to survive, but unfortunately major ecosystem services waste the resources that they have access to, and use them unsustainably. Also, Asia is a iodine deficient area, which ties into the environment.

21 "Security." Merriam-Webster. Merriam-Webster, n.d. Web. 24 June 2017. 22 "ASEAN's Biodiversity Information Gateway." Poverty. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 June 2017. 23 "Poverty & Equity." Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 June 2017.

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Iodine Deficiency Disorders (IDD’s) impact the mental and cognitive development of 24

children. A majority of children with IDD’s live in poverty.

The Human Development Index HDI is defined as the statistics used to rank countries by levels of human development. The HDI is a measure of life expectancy, education, and gross domestic product per capita. It measures the average achievements in a specific nation in these three basic aspects of human development, calculated into an index/number. In the image displayed below, the different shades of blue represent the level of Human Development according to the United Nations Human Development Reports. Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Singapore 25

have Medium Human Development. Malaysia and Thailand have High Human Development. Finally, Brunei has Very High Human Development. Over the past decade, the poverty rate in the ASEAN region has significantly decreased, yet nations still have a long way to go.

Another peril to regional security is the spreading of infectious diseases. One of

the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community 2015 Blueprint’s goals is to allow easier access to healthcare, promote healthier lifestyles, and to prepare themselves to protect against communicable diseases. The blueprint was implemented between 2009-2015 and has proven to be an effective guideline for maintaining ASEAN policies. It is dedicated to elevating the quality of life in the region. The SCC Blueprint promoted investment in infrastructure for healthcare in order to protect the poor from infectious diseases that worsen the poverty issue. It urged member-states of ASEAN to implement public health policies that would teach citizens about healthy lifestyle choices; dieting, physical activity, and taking care of mental health. The Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint also specified that ASEAN would do its best to prepare themselves for the spread of infectious and communicable diseases

. There are multiple threats facing ASEAN as a whole, and it is essential for the

association to work collectively to enhance regional security.

Timeline:

24 "10 Facts about Hunger in Asia." The Borgen Project. N.p., 13 Apr. 2016. Web. 24 June 2017. 25 "Human Development Reports." | Human Development Reports. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 June 2017.

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Below is a timeline including government corruption, natural disasters, and transnational crimes and disputes in the ASEAN region. 1971: The Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) is signed February 24th, 1976: The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), the Declaration of ASEAN Concord, and the Agreement on the Establishment of the ASEAN Secretariat are all signed. 1987: The TAC becomes open to existing nations outside of ASEAN. July 22nd, 1992: The DOC is signed by ASEAN Foreign Ministers. 1993: The Singapore Prevention of Corruption Act is revised, considered to be one of the world’s more powerful anti-corruption laws. 1994: In the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which states that the Philippines has taken China to arbitration. The agreement defines territorial waters, continental shelves, as well as exclusive economic zones. December 15th, 1995: The Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) is signed. 1995: China sets up octogon-shaped huts on Mischief Reef, land that had been fought over in the past. China says that the huts were to shade fishermen. The Philippines were not happy, and launched protests through ASEAN. March 27th, 1997: The SEANWFZ is entered into force. 1997: Philippine naval boats prevent Chinese ships from entering Scarborough Shoal, resulting in protests from the Chinese. November 4th, 2002: China signs the DOC. October 7th, 2003: The Bali Concord II is adopted, with the basis that the ASEAN Security, Economic, and Socio-Cultural Community is created.

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December 26th, 2004: The Indian Ocean Tsunami occurs, as the result of a 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Indonesia. Approximately 160,000 people are 26

killed in the tragedy. December, 2005: The UN Convention against Corruption is introduced. July 29th, 2007: The SEANWFZ Commision adopts a Plan of Action for better implementing the SEANWFZ. May 2nd, 2008: Cyclone Nargis hits Myanmar, killing around 140,000 . Relief efforts 27

were suspended at the time, raising the death toll significantly. October, 2008: The former prime minister of Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra, is sentenced to two years in prison for abuse of corruption and power. November, 2008: The Vietnamese vice director of the Department of Transport is convicted for 6 years in prison. He accepted $600,000 with a Japanese company to secure a road contract. 2009: China states that it has, “indisputable sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and the adjacent waters.” Vietnam and Malaysia then submitted that they 28

would like recognition for extended continental shelves. Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia all protest China’s claim. April 7th, 2010: The Guidelines for Accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation was adopted by the foreign Ministers of ASEAN. April, 2010: Cambodia adopts a law on Anti-Corruption. July 21st, 2011: The Guidelines for the Implementation of the DOC were formally endorsed by the ASEAN-China Ministerial. 2011: The Philippines files a complaint against China because a chartered ship searching for oil and gas in Reed Bank was supposedly harassed by two Chinese officers. The boat had to change course.

26 Szczepanski, Kallie. "These Are Asia's Worst Natural Disasters." ThoughtCo. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 June 2017. 27 "The Top 10 Natural Disasters by Death Toll, 2000-2010 Timeline." Timetoast. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 June 2017. 28 http://www.culture.gov.mm/DHR_mm/About_Asean_mm/ASCC_Blueprint.pdf

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March, 2012: China detains 21 Vietnamese fishermen, claiming that they were fishing in China’s land illegally. April, 2012: The Philippines discovers the Chinese illegally exploiting harvested coral and other marine-life off of Scarborough Shoal. June, 2012: Vietnam passes a law that gives sovereignty over the Spratly and Paracel Islands. 2012: China takes control over Scarborough Shoal. 2013: The Philippines brings the South China Sea Dispute with China to the Court of Arbitration in the Hague. January, 2014: China’s southern province adopts regulations that require Chinese fishermen to acquire permits before fishing in the South China Sea. November, 2014: The ASEAN Security Community action plan is discussed at the 25th ASEAN summit in Myanmar. December, 2014: China argues that the arbitration panel does not have jurisdiction over the Philippines claims. 2014: The Philippines protest the firing of a water cannon in Scarborough Shoal by China. Supposedly, it was to scare away fisherman from the Philippines, but the Chinese ignored this claim. 2015: The arbitration panel opposed China, saying that they have jurisdiction of 7/15 of the Philippines claims. 2015: Malaysia’s Prime Minister, Najib Tun Razak, funnels $1 billion from the government’s strategic development company into her personal bank account. July 12th, 2016: The court of arbitration states that China does not own the right to claim so much of the South China Sea. The Philippines agrees, and China rejects it. January, 2017: As of January of 2017, over 2,500 suspected drug-related personalities are killed by police forces alone. July 7th, 2016: The Philippine Daily Inquirer publishes a “Kill List”- listing all of the citizens killed in the war on drugs.

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August 23rd, 2016: A senator from the Philippines, Leila de Lima, says that not all killings had to do with the drug war. She says that the motives of 757 deaths have yet to 29

be determined.

Past International Action:

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations operates around the ideals that maintaining peace between all of the included nations will lead to growth and prosperity. Since its creation under the Bangkok Declaration in 1967, ASEAN has taken action against security threats and regional aggression, whether it be through the environment and military disputes.

It is essential for all member-states of ASEAN to cooperate politically and

militarily. Before ASEAN was formally formed, the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) was signed on November 27th, 1971. This document was signed holding the purpose that it would ensure the safety and freedom from any outside powers. The Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality was the first document that determined ASEAN’s visions for the future: security cooperation in Southeast Asia.

After the establishment of ASEAN, the leaders of ASEAN nations united to be a

part of the first ASEAN Summit in Bali, Indonesia. On February 24th, 1976, three major documents were signed: the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), the Declaration of ASEAN Concord, and the Agreement on the Establishment of the ASEAN Secretariat. Not so much militarily, but the TAC is the blueprint for governing the conduct of inter-state relations of the Southeast Asian countries. The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation values:

a) Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity and national identity of all countries

b) The right if every nation to lead without external interference from other states

c) Non-interference in the internal affairs of one another d) The settlement of difference through peace

29 Team, Rappler Research. "TIMELINE: The PNP's Use of the Term 'deaths under Investigation'." Rappler. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 June 2017.

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e) The renunciation of the threat or use of force f) Effective cooperation amongst ASEAN countries

In 1987, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation became accessible to countries

outside of ASEAN, too. As of 2015, there were 32 signatories that had signed onto the TAC. The latest signatory to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation was Norway, on June 30th, 2013. 30

In 1995 the Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone

(SEANWFZ) was signed. This treaty commits all ASEAN members to remain disarmed of nuclear weapons. Around two years later, on March 27th, 1997 was when this agreement entered into force. Throughout history, ASEAN leaders have deliberately emphasized the importance of disarmament from nuclear weapons. Similarly, remaining transparent regarding the use of nuclear weapons and energy has continuously been an ASEAN priority. The SEANWFZ ties in directly to the success of the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN). It has contributed towards strengthening regional security amongst ASEAN nations. The Treaty includes a protocol that is specifically designed for the five Nuclear Weapon States; the United States of America, the Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China, France, and the United Kingdom. Under this treaty, all States Parties are required to:

a) Not develop, manufacture, acquire, possess or have control over nuclear weapons; station nuclear weapons; or test or use nuclear weapons anywhere inside or outside the treaty zone.

b) Not to take any action to assist or encourage the manufacture or acquisition of any nuclear explosive device by any state.

c) Not to provide source or special fissionable materials or equipment to any Non-Nuclear Weapon State (NNWS), or any Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) unless subject to safeguards agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

d) To prevent in the territory of States Parties the stationing of any nuclear explosive device.

e) To prevent the testing of any nuclear explosive device.

30 ASEAN Security Outlook 2015

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f) Not to dump radioactive wastes and other radioactive matters at sea anywhere within the zone, and to prevent the dumping of radioactive wastes and other radioactive matters by anyone in the territorial sea of the States Parties.

The SEANWFZ Treaty commits all ten ASEAN states of being disarmed of

nuclear weapons, and reinforces the fact. On July 29th, 2007, a Plan of Action (PoA) was taken in order to Strengthen the Implementation of the SEANWFZ Treaty. It identified measures that should be taken in the next 5 years. In that case, it was between the years 2007-2012. More recently, a new Plan of Action was devised for 2013-2017.

The South China Sea Dispute has proven politically, socially, economically detrimental to the majority of countries involved. For this specific issue, ASEAN formed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, (DOC). ASEAN has been actively working on maintaining peace throughout the region, despite the tensions that are continuously rising. Although not a member of ASEAN, China signed the DOC, exhibiting their dedication to maintaining peace in the area. The document assures that nations will restrain themselves from acting on something if it will further elevate tensions.  

Current Situation:  

The South China Sea Dispute  

On July 12th, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued its ruling on a claim brought against China by the Philippines, ruling in favor of the Philippines. While China is a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which established the tribunal, it will not accept the result. It’s no surprise that the South China Sea has been debated over for the past two decades. It has been approximated that there are 11 billion barrels of oil in the South China 

Sea, and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Increasing tensions between China and 31

ASEAN nations is a concern of many. The militarization of the South China Sea is an event that all member-states would like to avoid. Unfortunately, China has already taken this step. On November 10th, 2016 , satellite images captures the housing for 32

surface-to-air missile systems in the Spratly region of the South China Sea. The 

31 "Global Conflict Tracker." Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations, n.d. Web. 27 June 2017. 32 "Beijing Continuing 'steady Pattern of Militarization' in South China Sea." The Japan Times. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 June 2017.

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construction began around September of 2016. Some debate that it was due to the challenge and threat of a (potentially) new US Administration. However, the militarization of the South China Sea has been on China’s political and military agenda for quite a while now. China intends to enhance its defense capabilities to sustain themselves during times of both peace, and even war.  

 China claims a majority of the South China Sea, and in that area alone $5 trillion 

in trade passes annually. As well as China, The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei all have ocean claims in the area. After the Hague ruling determined that China does not have any territorial claims to the land, China has not made any attempts to cease their involvement in the south china sea. This places smaller nations at a disadvantage in the region because it places risks on local trade and they are also unable to compete with the size and strength of the Chinese military. China has also constructed several man-made islands in the Spratly region, with three military-grade airfields. China pledged in 2015 to avoid further militarization of the islands. To defend China, the vice president of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, Lieutenant General He Lei has said that, “China is a supporter and defender of international and regional rules and regulations, But when it comes to defining international rules, that should be based on what the majority of countries agree on and what represents the interests of the majority.” China claims that under international law, foreign militaries do not have the right to conduct intelligence gathering activities in their exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Opposing opinions coming from countries such as the United States, which stated that militaries should not have to warn claimants whilst entering their territory. China’s claims threaten sea-lines of communication. This problem with this is that there are important passages that facilitate international trade, as well as the movement of naval forces.  

 In hopes to counter China’s potential military aggression in the South China Sea, 

Japan has sold ships and equipment to the Philippines and Vietnam.   Drug War in the Philippines  

Since taking office as the Philippines’ new president on June 30th, 2016, Rodrigo Duterte has carried out approximately 7,000 judicial killings to date, a large percentage being carried out by the Philippine National Police. The day before Duterte’s victory on May 9th, 2016, he stated, “If I make it to the presidential palace I will do just what I did

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as mayor. You drug pushers, holdup men, and do-nothings, you better get out because I'll kill you.” In 2015, the Philippine Dangerous Drug Board estimated that there is a total 33

of 1.8 million drug users in the Philippines, and 859, 150 being crystal methamphetamine users. Methamphetamine is more commonly referred to as crystal meth, an addictive and

dangerous substance. In this instance, it is important to define the term “drug user”. In the Philippines terms, a “drug user” means any citizen that his used drugs in the past year. Now, 85% of drug users in the Philippines reported using them monthly, and 50% cited weekly use of drugs. 34

Thus, the percentage of legitimate, daily drug addicts is likely a lot lower.

Part of this security issue is President Rodrigo Duterte’s extreme views on dealing with drug users. He believes that the use of drugs “shrinks the brain”, making users non-functioning members of society. Duterte seems to believe that it has surpassed the point of no return, that drug rehabilitation is no longer an option. Rodrigo Duterte shares similar views to the majority of the Philippines, making him and his policies popular amongst the nation. As shown below, in 2014, 91.22% of crystal meth users were male. Studies have shown that a majority of users are either taxi or bus drivers, pressured to stay awake for longer hours in order to contribute to their family’s income. As of 2014, the most commonly abused drug was ‘shabu’, or crystal methamphetamine. Since then, things have not changed. The drug war occurring in the Philippines affects the poverty and environmental aspects of enhancing regional security. Drugs are being treated as a criminal issue, rather than a health concern making it nearly impossible for addicts to seek treatment.

Of course, there are dozens of threats to ASEAN’s regional security. Other than these specific studies, environmental threats and poverty pose a constant threat. Natural

33 "Philippines' 'War on Drugs'." Human Rights Watch. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 June 2017 34 Gideon Lasco PhD Candidate in Medical Anthropology, Amsterdam Institute for Social Science Research (AISSR), University of Amsterdam. "Just How Big Is the Drug Problem in the Philippines Anyway?" The Conversation. N.p., 19 June 2017. Web. 27 June 2017.

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disasters are inevitable, and the only thing that ASEAN members can do is to prepare for them in order to minimize the losses that take place. Unfortunately, a majority of the Southeast Asian Nations lack infrastructure and supplies. Disaster management is defined as “the range of activities, prior to, during and after the disaster, designed to maintain control over disasters to provide a framework for helping at-risk persons and/or communities to avoid, minimise or recover from the impact of the disasters.” 35

Geophysical, climatological, hydrological, biological, and meteorological all have a probability of occurring in the ASEAN area. The Asia Pacific Region is prone to natural disasters because of its geographical location: the Ring of Fire. The Ring of Fire is known for its susceptibility to natural disasters, and has a perimeter of 40,000km. Located on the ring are 450 active volcanoes, and approximately 90% of the globes earthquake activity occur on this boundary.

Over the past couple of years, Southeast Asia has had massive economic expansion, alleviating the region-wide epidemic of poverty. The factors that contribute to poverty rates is the lack of food security, partially due to natural disasters and the unsustainable use of resources.

Possible Solutions: Disaster Preparedness

Planning is an essential factor that each nation should have in place. Despite this, nation-states should keep in mind that all plans should be able to be implemented during a crisis, and must be attainable. It is impossible to stop a natural disaster, but notifying citizens can aid in minimizing the damage that takes place. Quotas should be met in terms of stockpiling the necessary resources for an emergency. ASEAN members should consider creating a minimum quota that countries should posses at all times. Urban Search and Rescue (USR) needs to be implemented to contribute to finding missing persons, or determining if they are dead. Thousands of civilians go ‘missing’ in natural disasters, and their families are often left unsure whether or not they are still alive. Improving poverty and ecosystems

35 ASEAN Agreement On Disaster Management and Emergency Response

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A majority of civilians living under the poverty line use biodiverse areas with a plethora of resources to sustain themselves. Unfortunately, environmental companies in the Asia Pacific put the resources they have to waste, when less wealthy citizens could use the food to survive. Implementing laws and educational plans of action should be taken, educating peoples about the positive effects of using resources sustainably. Similarly, implementing laws to protect the environment can potentially improve the poverty situation, giving civilians more resources to live off of. Nationalistic and Populist Policies

In response to international aggression, many nations across the world have encouraged nationalist or populist leaders. However, these choices often become problematic because during times of crisis when nations should be depending on allies. In order to solve problems like the South China Sea it relies on a combined effort of Asian nations. If these countries turn away from international involvement and resort to protectionist policies, nothing gets accomplished. Many Asian nations already operate under conservative policies; however, keeping the status quo or even moving away from protectionism would be the most beneficial policy when combating a variety of affected nations. Maintaining cooperative relationships will be crucial in solving the South China Sea dispute and the drug epidemic.

Bloc Positions: Brunei Darussalam:

An aspect that Brunei considers to be a non-traditional threat is natural disasters. Brunei is susceptible to flooding, landslides, forest fires, and haze. Brunei’s primary challenge with navigating this issue is not only how to manage them, but how to mitigate once a natural disaster has already occurred. Also, a security concern of Brunei’s is solving unresolved territorial claims. They have identified this challenge, which is why Brunei has instilled the White Paper policy. It charts policies that try to maximize the 36

effectiveness of the Brunei armed forces. It sets potential capabilities of the armed forces, such as helicopters and surveillance systems.

36 ASEAN Security Outlook

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Cambodia:

Cambodia wholeheartedly supports regional peace and getting along with countries in the region. Over the years especially, they have greatly improved their relationship with Vietnam, a fellow ASEAN member. According to Article 49 of the Cambodian Constitution, all citizens have an obligation to protect their nation. All in all, Cambodia would like to balance both the development of the nation, as well as protecting it. Indonesia:

Indonesia feels that the values of ASEAN should be made more inclusive. For example, for the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, Indonesia is welcome to the idea of including more nations. This way, the peaceful values of ASEAN can be spread regionally, nationally, and internationally. In regards to the South China Sea dispute, the nation would like to see it resolved through discussion and cooperation.

Laos:

Laos has always been interested in protecting their national sovereignty, territorial pride, as well as protecting their national interests. After it’s proclamation in 1975, Laos has implemented one main national defence policy: the People’s Comprehensive National Defence and Security Policy. They make a great attempt to not participate in military activity because it’s armed forces are used for self defence, not offence. Also, their military spending budget is limited. They are making efforts to lift themselves out of the status of the least developed country by 2020. Therefore, a large percentage of their national spending has been allocated towards socio-economic infrastructures. Malaysia:

Along with Indonesia, Malaysia strongly believes that territorial disputes, namely the South China Sea dispute, should be solved through peaceful means. Malaysia is particularly concerned with the use of nuclear weapons, and the detrimental effect that they could potentially have on mankind. They reiterate the importance of maintaining peace in the region.

Myanmar:

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Myanmar does not permit any foreign troops into their territory, and their armed

forces were created solely for defense, not to attack. In article 42 of the Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar states that:

(i) The Union shall not commence aggression against any nation; (ii) No foreign troops shall be permitted to be deployed in the territory of the

Union. Generally, Myanmar refuses to impose on the internal affairs of neighbouring

countries. Philippines:

The Philippines and their President, Rodrigo Duterte, have taken a strong and slightly terrifying approach to eradicating the use of illegal drugs in the Philippines. Within 6 months in office, approximately 6,000 judicial killing have taken place, and more unofficial murders have been carried out by members of the police force in return for money. This is another problem that the Philippines is looking to address: corruption within their ranks. Fighting poverty would simultaneously fight the use of illegal drugs. Although Rodrigo Duterte is being harsh and clear with his political focusses, their methods in solving the issue of regional security may not be completely effective.

Singapore:

Singapore’s defense policy rests on two pillars: deterrence and diplomacy. Singapore feels that in order to act in the best interest of their citizens, they need political space to make the right decisions. This is why Singapore has steadily invested and spent money dedicated to this defensive cause. They want every nation, even those outside of ASEAN, to have a voice at the ‘table’ of discussion regarding regional security. Thailand:

Similar to it’s neighbours, Thailand’s military program and armed forces are based around defensing the prosperity of their nation. Annually, the Royal Thai Armed Forces hosts Cobra Gold, which is a series of multi-national defences exercises. ASEAN members that are involved are Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, as well as Thailand. The Thai government has prioritized anti-drug and anti-trafficking as a main problem in their

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region. The Royal Thai Government is committed to strengthening regional members to combat the illegal production, distribution, and abuse of illegal substances.

Vietnam:

Vietnam would like to see the Vietnam's People’s Army (VPA) develop over the next couple of years to enhance their defense capabilities. They are enthusiastic to participate in the discussion regarding regional security. China:

Over the past 10-15 years, China’s military and political power has grown significantly. China’s amount of power will, and has, significantly changed East Asia’s dynamic in terms of enhancing regional security. A majority of drug traffickers entering the Philippines and the thousands of islands with unguarded coastlines come from China. China and the Philippines do not get along, especially in regards to the South China Sea Dispute. Having become a major trading nation and oil importer, it is in China’s best interest to keep trading opportunities open (South China Sea) with Europe, North America, and the Middle East. China is aware that due to its rapid economical, political, and military development, surrounding nations view this as a threat, and is why China supports regional security cooperation.

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"ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint 2025." ASEAN | ONE VISION ONE IDENTITY ONE COMMUNITY. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 June 2017.

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"Beijing Continuing 'steady Pattern of Militarization' in South China Sea." The Japan Times. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 June 2017.

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Gideon Lasco PhD Candidate in Medical Anthropology, Amsterdam Institute for Social Science Research (AISSR), University of Amsterdam. "Just How Big Is the Drug Problem in the Philippines Anyway?" The Conversation. N.p., 19 June 2017. Web. 27 June 2017.

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