Variability level of Caspian sea in

connection climatic changes and

adaptation principles

Ramiz Mammadov

Institute of Geography

Baku – 22 January 2015

The most characteristic feature of the Caspian Sea is its periodical fluctuating of level. The person living in a coastal zone should know and consider it at economic activities. Otherwise it will turn back the big damage. In the past such unexpected transgressions and regressions had an influence on the fate of the whole ethnos. According to Humilev, one of the factor which undermined the power of the ancient Khazar state was sudden transgression of the Caspian in X century B. C. which flooded the great part of pastures in the northern Pre-Caspian region.

DEFINITION OF PROBLEM

In 50-60 years XX century when there was drop level was a motto “Caspian should be saved”,

In 1990 XX century during the rise of level water in the sea, the conduction of the protection works was conducted under the other motto – “We must be saved from the Caspian”.

Peculiarity fluctuation of level In the Caspian sea distinguish two kinds of fluctuation of level - volumetric and deformation. Time and spatial variability of sea level To fluctuation of level of the Caspian sea on time we categorize as follows: Geological period, Historical period, Perennial variability or period of instrument observations, Annual variability, Interannual or seasonal variability and Short-time variability.

RAMIZ MAMMADOV INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AZERBAIJAN ACDEMY OF SCIENCES

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

-34

-32

-30

-28

-26

-24

-22

-20

Н, м.

-20,0

-27,0

4 8 12 16 20%

5

4

1

6

3

2

Change of level of Caspian sea (1) during historical time, its average tendency (2), frequency of repeatability (3) and its characteristic positions - an average (4), maximum (5), minimum (6).

Period of instrument observations

H, метр

-27.8

-27.7

-27.6

-27.5

-27.4

-27.3

-27.2

-27.1

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

1900-1977 гг. 1978-1997 гг. 1900-1997 гг.

За периоды

Месяцы

RAMIZ MAMMADOV INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AZERBAIJAN ACDEMY OF SCIENCES

Interannual or seasonal variability

Summarizing all that, the scale of changeableness in the level of the Caspian Sea can be classified in this way: centuries, several years, yearly seasonal (periodical), short-term ) (non-periodical) and rhythmical. That means that while implementation of some arrangements in the sea, the changes in the levels should be treated as multi-storied process, i.e. a certain level (1-floor) is established as a result of many year changes. Then that height is added the change connected with seasonal change (2nd floor) – in the spring and in early summer season the level in the sea is higher than in the year. Then level formed as result of such composition is added the change connected with the process of fluctuation (3rd floor). And, finally the heights connected with waves (the 4th floor) should also be taken into account.

SHORT SUMMARY

RAMIZ MAMMADOV INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AZERBAIJAN ACDEMY OF SCIENCES

Geological factors. In the whole, analysis the role of geological factors in sea-level changes conducted by us, allows to conclude that leading role in geodynamics of Caspian sea region play horizontal motions and vertical ones are derivative of them. In all, contribution of these motions in level change can be estimated at 10-15%. These data are debatable and should be much number of instrumental observations (Lilienberg, 2002).

RAMIZ MAMMADOV INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AZERBAIJAN ACDEMY OF SCIENCES

The anthropogenic factors. Thus joint influence of anthropogenic factors such as irretrievable removal of

river water, getting the climate warmer and pollution of sea surface can affect level change by 3-5%.

Hydroclimatic factors

Thus, it may be stated the present changes in the level of the Caspian sea by 85-90% are caused by corresponding changes in the contributions from the different factors that affect the water stocks

Reasons of Changes in the level

Schematic model variability of the Caspian Sea level

Flooding of foundation ditches of inhabitants village Zyrja for cultivation of water-melons and other agricultural crops on Shahovoj to a plait (east extremity of Absheronsky peninsula)

Kura Absheron

Nabran Nabran

Nabran

Classification of the Azerbaijan coastal zone of Caspian sea for the purpose of development of the recommendation about its protection: I. High density population sites of coast with traditionally developed agricultural production and a resort complex which are subdivided on 3 site: 1.Nabran-Muxtadir site, 2.Absheron site, 3.Lenkoran site.

II. Sites of coast with the industrially-developed infrastructure: 1.Sumgait site, 2.Baku site.

III. Lagoon-deltoid coast with rather weak population: 1.Modern delta of the river of the Kura, 2.Kizilagach bay site.

IV. Poorly or nearly so not populated sites of coast: 1.Samur-Devechy-Kilyazy site, 2.From mouth of the river the Kura to Lenkorani.

Necessary actions for protection of the flooded coast and state policy in relation to development of a coastal zone Caspian sea

Classification of the Azerbaijan coastal zone of Caspian sea for the purpose of development of the recommendation about its protection

The damage put to economy of a coastal zone of Azerbaijan in connection with last lifting of level of Caspian sea (the prices are presented in national currency MANAT and

correspond by 1996).

№ Наименование районов Всего млн.

манат

Граждан Ст-

во

Пром-ое и

с/х ст-во

Объекты тран.

инфранс.

Инженер ком-

ции

Зоны

отдыха

1 Хачмасский 1705 - - 57 14351 3097

2 Дивичинский - - - - - -

3 Сиазанский - - - - - -

4 Хызынский - - - - - -

5 Апшеронский 157176 - 137876 2000 14300 3000

6 Сальянский - - - - - -

7 Нефтечалинский 977555 31200 44336 11679 155 10385

8 Массаллинский - - - - - -

9 Ленкоранский 70766 311718 27058 9261 2190 549

10 Астаринский 51267 18169 27800 3601 947 750

Итого по республики

394469 81087 199072 26588 31947 7396

The damage put to agriculture of a coastal zone of Azerbaijan in connection with last lifting of level of Caspian sea (the prices are presented in national currency манат and correspond by 1996).

№ Наименование районов Протяженность

по береговой

линии

Всего пашня вино-

градарство

Пастбища

выгон

Проч.

земли

Нанесенный

ущерб в ценах

1997г млн.ман.

1 Хачмасский 70 2070 - - 50- 2020 16485

2 Дивичинский 25 1040 - - - 1040 7974

3 Сиазанский 39 610 - - - 610 4677

4 Хызынсий 32 310 - - 40 270 1326

5 Апшеронский 307 3080 - - - 3080 12496

6 Сальянский 18 60 3450 - - 60 227

7 Нефтечалинский 70 36290 - - 14260 18640 355937

8 Массалинский 23 50 210 220 - 550 3176

9 Ленкоранский 202 35660 - 100 1050 3418- 228112

10 Астаринский 21,5 1050 - 50 538558

Итого по республики 807,5 80720 3660 1220 15340 65500 684226

For damage reduction in the future the following strategy of development of a coastal zone is offered: I. For zones of periodic flooding and underflooding by waters of Caspian sea by the

state it is necessary to establish special regime of borders of coastal zone for economic activities:

А) The First covers the areas flooded by the sea from a mark-29,0m to a modern coastal line.

B) The second zone is a territory subject short-term onset to flooding and steady underflooding at a modern sea level - from a modern coastal line to a mark-26,0m and above.

С) The third zone includes territories of possible flooding and underflooding at ingreasing sea level to a mark-25,0m and above.

II. It is necessary to approve the concept of two phase approaches to the decision of the problems connected with change of level of Caspian sea, providing on the first stage protection of territories against flooding and underflooding taking into account expected rising of sea level to a mark-25,0m,

and second stage, in a case excess of the specified marks, - regulation of level from the consent and with the assistance of all near-Caspian states.

Характерные

уровни Каспийского

моря

С ц е н а р и й

Сверхмаксимальн

ый (-20 м абс. )

Самый максимальный уровень за историческое время. Он фиксируется при-

близительно 2600 лет назад. Его аномалия относительно среднего составляет около +7

м при обеспеченности 0,38% и повторяемости 1-2 раза за 2600 лет. Площадь моря до-

стигает 472,2 тыс.км2 а ее аномалия +85,6 тыс.км2. Экстремальные климатические

условия с преобладанием высокой степени увлажненности

Западный перенос воздушных масс. Очень высокий процент облачности.

Максимальное количество циклонов с очень высокой водностью. Преобладание

паводкового режима стока рек. Ослабление процессов испарения с морской акватории.

Возможен приток вод Амударьи в Каспий через Узбой. Заливы Кара-Богаз-Гол и

Красноводский становятся частью акватории моря

Максимальный (-

25 м абс. )

Максимальный уровень за инструментальный период, зарегистрирован в 1882г. Его

аномалия составляет около +2 м при обеспеченности 45,38% и повторяемости около 15

раз при средней продолжительности стояния около 60 лет. Площадь моря составляет

414,7, а ее аномалия -22,1 тыс. к м2.

Пониженная температура воздуха и воды. Преобладание западного переноса

воздушных масс

Увеличение водности рек. Сокращение испарения с акватории моря. Повышенный

сток в Кара-Богаз-Гол.

Прогнозная оценка сценариев изменения уровня и гидроклиматических

условий Каспийского моря

Средний (-27 м абс.) Средний уровень за историческое время. За инструментальный

период фиксируется в 1937 и 1922 гг. Его обеспеченность составляет

45,38% при повторяемости около 110 лет. Площадь моря составляет

392,6 тыс.км2. Переходный период в изменении климатических условий.

Смена эпох циркуляционных процессов в атмосфере. Водность рек

близка к среднемноголетней.

Минимальный (-29 м абс. ) Минимальный уровень за инструментальный период (1977г.) Его

аномалия -2 м. Обеспеченность 65,77% при повторяемости 20 раз и про-

должительности стояния ниже среднего около 90 лет. Площадь моря

снижается до 357,0 тыс.км2. Повышенная температура воздуха и воды.

Ослабленный западный перенос воздушных масс при усиленном

меридиональном. Пониженная водность циклонов и увлажненность

бассейна. Низкая водность рек бассейна Волги и Урала. Повышенный

сток рек Кавказского побережья. Низкий сток в Кара-Богаз-Гол.

Наименьший (-34 м абс.) Наиболее низкое стояние уровня за историческое время (2600 лет),

которое фиксируется приблизительно 2250 и 1420 лет назад. Аномалия

уровня относительно среднего составляет +7м при обеспеченности

99,62% и повторяемости за 2600 лет. Площадь моря сокращается до

293,3 тыс.км2 при аномалии -99,3тыс.км2. Экстремально теплые

климатические условия с высокой степенью засушливости. Преобладает

меридиональный перенос воздушных масс. Облачность развита слабо.

Ослабленная циклональная деятельность. Пониженная водность рек.

Большое испарение с поверхности моря. Из-за отсутствия притока

каспийских вод в залив Кара-Богаз-Гол он превращается в озеро, воз-

можно полное его усыхание.

The top limit:-25,0 m. Above stated reasonings and is likelihood-statistical calculations show, that the probability of transition of a mark-25,0м makes 0,1 %. However, it is necessary to remember that now the level is on-27,0м, i.e. all on 1м below a mark-25,0м. Considering this fact and all calculations and explanations it is possible to tell, that the probability of a finding of a level below a mark-25,0м till 2030 is estimated in 97-99 %.

The bottom limit:-29,0м. According to experts of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center (Сидоренков, etc.) in the beginning of 80th years there has come{stepped} an era of atmospheric processes which will create a plenty of cyclones in pool of Caspian sea. Such position will be kept a minimum within the nearest 30 years. During too time at downturn of a level up to a mark-29,0м and below the area of the sea and quantity of water evaporated of its surface is reduced. The mechanism itself regulation operates. On this, despite of that such plenty of water (30 -40/year) from the rivers of Caspian sea probability of a water level below-29,0м during the following of 30-40 years is withdrawn is estimated also 97 and 99 %.

The resume, is probabilities of increase of level to a mark-25,0 the m (though

small), also is probabilities of fall to a mark-29,0 m (too small).

Thus the range of change of 4 metre should have an activity particular

treatment.

THANK YOU!