vengeance, retribution, or mistake? discussing the death penalty in america, 1960-2002
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Vengeance, Retribution, or Mistake? Discussing the Death Penalty in America, 1960-2002. Presentation to the Justice Project Washington, DC, May 15, 2003. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Vengeance, Retribution, Vengeance, Retribution, or Mistake? Discussing or Mistake? Discussing
the Death Penalty in the Death Penalty in America, 1960-2002America, 1960-2002
Presentation to the Justice ProjectPresentation to the Justice Project
Washington, DC, May 15, 2003Washington, DC, May 15, 2003
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Frank R. Baumgartner, Professor Frank R. Baumgartner, Professor and Headand Head
Cheryl Feeley, Senior Honors Cheryl Feeley, Senior Honors Student*Student*
Amber Boydstun, Graduate Amber Boydstun, Graduate StudentStudent
Pennsylvania State UniversityPennsylvania State UniversityDepartment of Political ScienceDepartment of Political Science
University Park, PA 16802University Park, PA 16802*Cheryl graduates on Saturday; is Political Science valedictorian; seeks employment in DC area with policy focus. (Hint, hint)
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Presentation Presentation HighlightsHighlights
Background on Issue Background on Issue DefinitionDefinition
Longitudinal Study on Longitudinal Study on Changing Definition of Death Changing Definition of Death Penalty IssuePenalty Issue
Public Opinion ResearchPublic Opinion Research Future ProjectsFuture Projects
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Issue Definitions and Issue Definitions and Their Policy Their Policy
ConsequencesConsequences All issues are inherently multi-All issues are inherently multi-
dimensional.dimensional. Attention often focuses on one set of Attention often focuses on one set of
dimensions at a time, surprisingly.dimensions at a time, surprisingly. Attention can shift dramatically and Attention can shift dramatically and
with long-lasting policy with long-lasting policy consequences.consequences.
Pesticides as an example:Pesticides as an example:
(Drawn from Agendas and Instability, Fig. 5.3)(Drawn from Agendas and Instability, Fig. 5.3)
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Pesticides: Looking GoodPesticides: Looking Goodafter World War Twoafter World War Two
Media Coverage of Pesticides, 1900-1990
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Total Coverage Percent Positive
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Pesticides: No Longer Pesticides: No Longer Such Good News after Such Good News after
19561956Media Coverage of Pesticides, 1900-1990
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40
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Pesticides: From Green Pesticides: From Green Revolution to Nobody’s Revolution to Nobody’s
BabyBabyMedia Coverage of Pesticides, 1900-1990
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Are we on the verge, or Are we on the verge, or indeed in the middle of, indeed in the middle of, a major redefinition of a major redefinition of
public understanding of public understanding of the death penalty in the death penalty in
America?America?
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Major Dimensions of Major Dimensions of Death Penalty DebateDeath Penalty Debate
EfficacyEfficacy- Does the punishment serve a functional - Does the punishment serve a functional purpose?purpose?
MoralMoral- Should we use the death penalty at all?- Should we use the death penalty at all? FairnessFairness- Is the capital punishment process fair?- Is the capital punishment process fair? Constitutionality/JudiciaryConstitutionality/Judiciary- Is the penalty - Is the penalty
constitutional and how much power do the courts constitutional and how much power do the courts have?have?
CostCost- Is the death penalty cost-effective?- Is the death penalty cost-effective? Mode of Execution-Mode of Execution- Which modes of execution Which modes of execution
should be permitted?should be permitted? InternationalInternational- We should consider the many - We should consider the many
complaints from abroad regarding our death penalty complaints from abroad regarding our death penalty systemsystem
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MethodologyMethodology
Developed coding scheme Developed coding scheme incorporating all of these possible incorporating all of these possible arguments about the death penaltyarguments about the death penalty
Coded 3,500 New York Times Coded 3,500 New York Times abstracts under the index title abstracts under the index title “Capital Punishment”“Capital Punishment”
This represents the whole set of This represents the whole set of articles from 1960-2001 articles from 1960-2001
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Sample Abstracts and Codes Sample Abstracts and Codes ReceivedReceived
“Critics of capital punishment accuse Virginia officials of being vindictive for not allowing Earl Washington Jr to appear at news conference on Capitol Hill to talk about death sentence he narrowly escaped for rape and murder he did not commit; news conference is part of campaign to legislate greater opportunities for appeal under death penalty”
Codes Received: Strong anti tone, News story type, Type of crime committed, Violence of crime committed, Legislative initiative, Innocence, General fairness anti-death penalty
“State of Missouri will execute 26-year old Antoniao Richardson, mentally retarded man, despite pleas for clemency from mother of his two victims; he was 16 years old in 1991, when he murdered 20-year-old Julie Kerry and 19-year-old sister Robin”
Codes Received: Weak pro tone, News story type, Type of crime committed, Victim multiple mentioned, Victim female, Victim family mentioned, Defendant mentally handicapped, Defendant juvenile, Victim family morally opposed
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Total Number of Total Number of NYT NYT Articles, Articles, 1960-20011960-2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
To
tal N
um
be
r o
f A
rtic
les
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Front Page Front Page NYTNYT Coverage, Coverage, 1960-20011960-2001
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f A
rtic
les
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Type of Story in Type of Story in NYTNYT, , 1960-20011960-2001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
News Story
Editorial
Op-Ed
Letter to theEditor
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Proportion of Articles Proportion of Articles with Anti-Death Penalty with Anti-Death Penalty
Tone, 1960-2001*Tone, 1960-2001*
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
*Out of those articles which had an identifiable tone
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Proportion of Articles Containing Proportion of Articles Containing Pro-Death Penalty vs. Anti-Death Pro-Death Penalty vs. Anti-Death
Penalty ArgumentsPenalty Arguments
00.10.20.30.40.5
0.60.70.80.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
port
ion
of A
rtic
les
P ro-Death P enaltyArguments
Anti-Death P enaltyArguments
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Growing Gap Between Number Growing Gap Between Number of Abstracts Containing Pro-of Abstracts Containing Pro-
Death Penalty and Anti-Death Death Penalty and Anti-Death Penalty ArgumentsPenalty Arguments
-30-20-10
0102030405060708090
100110
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Dif
fere
nc
e in
Nu
mb
er
of
Sto
rie
s
(In
cre
as
ing
ly A
nti
-De
ath
Pe
na
lty
)
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The Tone Is Related to the The Tone Is Related to the TopicTopic
Major Argument Major Argument CategoriesCategories
Pro-Death Penalty Pro-Death Penalty (# of articles)(# of articles)
Anti-Death Penalty Anti-Death Penalty (# of articles) (# of articles)
DifferenceDifference
MoralMoral 56% (265)56% (265) 44% (205)44% (205) -13%-13%
ModeMode 49% (83)49% (83) 51% (87)51% (87) 2%2%
Constitutional/Constitutional/
JudiciaryJudiciary
44% (436)44% (436) 56% (563)56% (563) 13%13%
EfficacyEfficacy 33% (52)33% (52) 67% (104)67% (104) 33%33%
CostCost 30% (3)30% (3) 70% (7)70% (7) 40%40%
New IssuesNew Issues
(Evidence/Innocence)(Evidence/Innocence)
22% (100)22% (100) 78% (359)78% (359) 56%56%
FairnessFairness 20% (144)20% (144) 80% (566)80% (566) 59%59%
InternationalInternational 16% (10)16% (10) 84% (54)84% (54) 69%69%
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Efficacy Arguments, Efficacy Arguments, 1960-20011960-2001
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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Moral Arguments, 1960-Moral Arguments, 1960-20012001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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Fairness Arguments, Fairness Arguments, 1960-20011960-2001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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Constitutional/Judiciary Constitutional/Judiciary Arguments, 1960-2001Arguments, 1960-2001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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Cost Arguments, 1960-Cost Arguments, 1960-20012001
0
0.1
0.20.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.70.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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Mode of Execution Arguments, Mode of Execution Arguments, 1960-20011960-2001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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International Arguments, International Arguments, 1960-20011960-2001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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Innocence and Evidence Innocence and Evidence Arguments, 1960-2001Arguments, 1960-2001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les
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Proportion of Articles Proportion of Articles Containing New Issues and Containing New Issues and Defendant CharacteristicsDefendant Characteristics
00.1
0.20.3
0.40.50.6
0.70.8
0.91
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
rtic
les New Issues
DefendantCharacteristics
Either New Issues orDefendantCharacteristics
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Public Opinion on the Public Opinion on the Death PenaltyDeath Penalty
0102030405060708090
100
1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Year
Per
cent
age
of R
espo
nden
ts
Favor
Oppose
Undecided
Source: Gallup Poll Data
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Modeling Public Support Modeling Public Support for the Death Penaltyfor the Death Penalty
Support = Support = ββ00 + + ββ11gender + gender + ββ22race + race + ββ33racial attitudes + racial attitudes + ββ44regionregion
+ + ββ55education + education + ββ66partisanship + partisanship + ββ77income + income +
ββ88religionreligion
Value LabelsValue Labelsgender: gender: (0=female, 1=male)(0=female, 1=male)race: race: (0=black, 1=white)(0=black, 1=white)racial attitudes: racial attitudes: (0=do not agree; 1=do agree) with the statement that (0=do not agree; 1=do agree) with the statement that
“blacks should not push themselves where they don’t “blacks should not push themselves where they don’t belong”belong”
region: region: (0=non-South, 1=South)(0=non-South, 1=South)education: education: (0=less than high school,… 4=graduate school)(0=less than high school,… 4=graduate school)partisanship: partisanship: (1=strong Democrat,... 5=strong Republican)(1=strong Democrat,... 5=strong Republican)income: income: (0=less than $25,000/year; 1=more than $25,000/year)(0=less than $25,000/year; 1=more than $25,000/year)religion: religion: (0=non-Protestant; 1=Protestant)(0=non-Protestant; 1=Protestant)
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Predictors of Public Predictors of Public Support Support
for the Death Penaltyfor the Death Penalty1994 1996 1998 2000
Explanatory Variables Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficientgender 0.32 ** 0.36 ** 0.17 0.53 ****
(0.16) (0.14) (0.14) (0.14)race 0.79 **** 0.71 **** 1.48 *** 1.31 ****
(0.21) (0.19) (0.18) (0.19)racial attitudes 0.64 **** 0.33 ** 0.22 0.59 ****
(0.18) (0.15) (0.14) (0.15)region 0.12 0.13 0.32 ** 0.01
(0.17) (0.15) (0.15) (0.14)education -0.06 -0.24 **** -0.16 ** -0.16 ***
(0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)partisanship 0.18 **** 0.24 **** 0.04 0.14 ****
(0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04)income 0.17 0.20 0.33 ** 0.38 **
(0.17) (0.15) (0.15) (0.15)religion 0.03 0.17 0.26 * 0.22
(0.17) (0.15) (0.14) (0.14)(constant) -0.16 -0.08 -0.58 -1.12
(0.27) (0.23) (0.22) (0.22)
n = 1132 n = 1437 n = 1333 n = 1260
Χ2 = 79.46 ***** Χ2 = 127.65 ***** Χ2 = 108.06 ***** Χ2 = 155.77 ****
* p < .10; ** p < .05; *** p < .01; **** p < .001; ***** p < .0001
logit estimates (standard errors listed in parentheses)
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Predicted Impacts on Predicted Impacts on Support Support
for the Death Penaltyfor the Death Penalty
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
gend
erra
ce
racia
l attit
udes
regio
n
educ
ation
incom
e
partis
ansh
ip
relig
ionPre
dic
ted
In
cre
as
e i
n P
rob
ab
ilit
y
of
Su
pp
ort
fo
r th
e D
ea
th P
en
alt
y
1994
1996
1998
2000
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Predicted Probability of Predicted Probability of Support Support
for the Death Penaltyfor the Death Penalty19941994 19961996 19981998 20002000
Person “A”*Person “A”* 95%95% 96%96% 92%92% 94%94%
MeanMean 82%82% 81%81% 77%77% 73%73%
Person “B”**Person “B”** 40%40% 26%26% 23%23% 15%15%
Difference between Difference between “A” and “B”“A” and “B”
55%55% 70%70% 69%69% 79%79%
* Person “A”: white; male; believes “blacks should not push themselves where they don’t belong”; Southern, less than high school level of education; strong Republican; earns > $25,000 a year; Protestant
** Person “B”: black; female; disagrees with the statement that “blacks should not push themselves where they don’t belong”; non-Southern, graduate school level of education; strong Democrat; earns < $25,000 a year; non-Protestant
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Future WorkFuture Work
More complete public opinion More complete public opinion modelmodel
Dynamic model of public opinion Dynamic model of public opinion over time over time
150 polls from 1957 to present150 polls from 1957 to present Objective indicators (crime statistics, etc.)Objective indicators (crime statistics, etc.) Amount and tone of news coverageAmount and tone of news coverage
Full test of the impact of changing Full test of the impact of changing issue definition on public attitudesissue definition on public attitudes
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Preliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings
Significant decline in support for the Significant decline in support for the death penaltydeath penalty
This decline appears to be related to This decline appears to be related to the changing nature of the public the changing nature of the public debate surrounding the death debate surrounding the death penalty issuepenalty issue
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Some Remaining PuzzlesSome Remaining Puzzles
The impact of raceThe impact of race The effects of partisanshipThe effects of partisanship Is the decline in public support Is the decline in public support
shared across segments of the shared across segments of the population, or are some groups population, or are some groups immune to changing issue immune to changing issue definitions?definitions?