visión - yankee group
DESCRIPTION
Wally Swain, Senior Vice President, Emerging MarketsTRANSCRIPT
Page 1 © Copyright 2012
Sustitución Fijo Móvil
W. Swain 12 June 2012
Page 2 © Copyright 2012
Agenda
Big Themes
General Framework
Why is MBB growing faster than FBB?
Is MBB a substitute or complement for FBB?
Conclusions
Page 4 © Copyright 2012
Text to Speech to Video
Increasing Bandwidth
Communication modes do not disappear but costs are transformed by technology and prices fall towards costs
Page 5 © Copyright 2012
68%
17%
48%
26%
12%
5%
3%
59%
10%
32%
19%
7%
5%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Live TV
Game Console
PC/Laptop
Mobile Phone
Digital audio/MP3 Player
Tablet
Handheld Game Console
Under 25
Total
Over 25
Shared Experiences To Personal Experiences
Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011 Hispanic Respondents Only
Page 6 © Copyright 2012
70%
36%
14%
14%
7%
21%
54%
20%
18%
7%
5%
29%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
User-generated videos
Clips from TV shows
Full episodes of TV shows
Full-length movies
HD programming
None of the above
Under 25
Total
Over 25
Defined Place to Any Place
Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011 Hispanic Respondents Only
Page 7 © Copyright 2012
Defined Time to Any Time
Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011 Hispanic Respondents Only
68%
15%
59%
22%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Live TV
DVR / Time ShiftedUnder 25
Total
Over 25
Page 8 © Copyright 2012
Combining these trends favors Mobile/Wireless Delivery for Video Content
Shared to Personal
Def
ined
Pla
ce t
o A
ny
Pla
ce
Mobile TV or OTT TV on a Tablet, Laptop or Large
Screen Smartphone
Linear TV in the Living Room
IPTV or OTT TV over Fixed Broadband or WiFi
Mobile TV or OTT TV on a Smartphone
Defined Time to Anytime Means I Want It With Me
Page 9 © Copyright 2012
Although many other applications like Social Networking or Voip command attention, the driver of data traffic is Video in both Fixed and Mobile Networks.
Indeed, we might not need new mobile technologies like LTE were it not for the explosive growth of Video over Mobile Networks both via smartphones and via dongles / modems / tablets.
Driver for Broadband Growth is Video
12,528
17,867
24,477
32,973
43,772
58,214
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Internet Traffic in PB per Month
Other
Voice over IP (VoIP)
Web, email, and data
Online gaming
File sharing
Video calling
Internet video
Total
Source: Cisco Global VNI, 2012
Page 10 © Copyright 2012
And Mobile Video Traffic Grows As Well
Video Streaming grew over 9x
Just in H2/2011, YouTube grew 100%
and HD YouTube grew 300%
Page 15 © Copyright 2012
Why is MBB Growing Faster than FBB? Demand
Shared to Personal
Defined Place to Any Place
Defined Time to Any Time
Wait for Service vs NOW!
Contract vs Prepaid
2 to 6 Mbps vs 42Mbps!!!
Page 19 © Copyright 2012
Is MBB Really a Substitute for FBB?
HSPA+, DC-HSPA and LTE are becoming more efficient every day – higher speeds and more capacity at lower cost.
CPE prices are already competitive (at least for HSPA+ and DC-HSPA) Overcome the problems of bad copper
If all users in a sector are streaming HD video, capacity will exhaust very quickly.
Number of users per sector harder to predict than number of users per DSLAM
Page 21 © Copyright 2012
Is MBB Really a Substitute for FBB?
MBB or
FBB? Rural? MBB
Fringe Urban?
Low Subs
Density? MBB
High HD RT
Video?
MBB +
DTH
FTTH
MBB
YES
YES YES
YES
NO
NO NO
NO V. Hi
Income
Page 23 © Copyright 2012
Lack of spectrum could prevent operators from responding to the growth in broadband using Mobile Broadband
A similar issue is the backlash against towers – an advantage of copper-based solutions is that they don’t go up 100m into the skyline. Small cell architectures are the mitigating strategy.
Tiered plans and high tariffs could definitely put a break on this trend – or shift it to WiFi
FBB in Latin America is still Flat Rate / Unlimited
What could change about this imperative? What could impede it?
Page 24 © Copyright 2012
Conclusions
MBB has overtaken FBB in Latin America and Revenues will soon follow
The driver for whether MBB truly substitutes for FBB is VIDEO not Internet
If all users needed to do was non-video Internet, FBB would be DEAD
Both FBB and MBB have their roles in a national broadband policy
Video usage and subscriber density are the drivers
Caps and high tariffs could impede growth of MBB
Page 25 © Copyright 2012
¡Gracias!
¿Preguntas? W. Swain
Managing Partner, C3 Comunicaciones SAS SVP Emerging Markets, Yankee Group [email protected] [email protected] www.MacondoTelecom.net @WSYGLA