visualizing coastal vulnerability and people for the u.s. national climate assessment (nca) gregg...
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Visualizing Coastal Vulnerability and People
for the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA)
Gregg Verutes, Greg Guannel, Katie Arkema and Spencer Wood
April 23, 2012
About NCA(National Climate Assessment)
• Incorporate advances in climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems
• The next NCA is scheduled to be completed in 2013– Evaluate the effectiveness of our mitigation and
adaptation activities– Help federal gov’t prioritize climate science investments– Provide science to communities to plan more sustainably
for future
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Project Motivations and Goals
• Climate change will vastly increase the vulnerability of people and property to coastal hazards. – Nationwide, more than one-third of the U.S.
population currently lives in the coastal zone. – Accelerated rise in sea level and increases in storm
intensity…conflicts between people, development and natural processes will increase, causing economic and societal impacts (Titus et al 2009)
• Vulnerability to erosion hazards depends both on physical and social characteristics of coastlines.
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model
Highlight the role of habitat in reducing vulnerability of people and infrastructure
to erosion and flooding from sea level rise and storms
EROSION
FLOODING
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
GEOMORPHOLOGY
SandyBeach Rocky Coast
1
NATURAL HABITATS
2
WIND EXPOSURE
3
WAVE EXPOSURE
4
RELIEF
5
SEA LEVEL RISE
6
CV Model Inputs
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
VARIABLES: RANK 1-51. Geomorphology2. Natural habitat3. Wind Exposure4. Wave Exposure5. Sea Level Rise6. Relief7. Surge Potential
Vulnerability Index
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Outputs from NatCap Demo Sites
No Habitat
Difference
Habitat
Effect of habitats on vulnerability to coastal storms and
1.4 m SLR
Coastal PopulationLow High
Habitats Data GatheredWest Coast
East Coast
Gulf Coast
Alaska
Hawaii
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Summary of Natural HabitatsWest Coast Gulf Coast East Coast
Alaska Hawaii
• Forest• Wetlands• Aquatic Beds• Eelgrass• Kelp
(113 Mb)
• Forest• Wetlands• Aquatic Beds• Corals
(1 Mb)
• Forest• Wetlands• Aquatic Beds• Kelp• Seagrass• Dunes (High and Low)
(116 Mb)
• Forest• Wetlands• Aquatic Beds• Corals• Dunes (High and Low)• Seagrass• Oyster
(78 Mb)
• Forest• Wetlands• Aquatic Beds• Dunes (High and Low)• Seagrass• Oyster
(122 Mb)
Total = ~ 0.5 Gb
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
American Community Survey (ACS) (2006 – 2010, 5 yr. estimates)• Total Population• People Age 65+ • Families Below the Poverty Line
Zillow (U.S. Real Estate Info)• Average Property Value
Social Metrics
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Southern CaliforniaExample
Mapping human settlements with land cover and Census data
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Land Stewardship (Public vs. Private)
G A P S TAT U S1 = Public, non-extractive2 = Public, non-extractive 3 = Public, extractive 4 = Private
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
LULC ( NLCD 2006 ) ID IDUSGS Dasymetric
Mapping tool
Open Water 11 4 Uninhabited
Developed, Open Space 21 4 Uninhabited
Developed, Low Intensity 22 3 Non-urban Inhabited
Developed, Med Intensity 23 2 Low Density Residential
Developed, High Intensity 24 1 High Density Residential
Barren Land 31 4 Uninhabited
Mixed Forest 43 4 Uninhabited
Woody Wetlands 90 4 Uninhabited
… … 4 All Uninhabited
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Land Use / Land Cover: Map People
• 4 SLR scenarios• Comparing Habitat vs. Loss of Habitat– Difference – Juxtaposed Maps
Statewide Comparisons
WA TXCA OR MILA FLAL SCGA MDNC VA DE NJ CTNY RI MA NH ME
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Nature’s Protection for People fromSea Level Rise and Storms
Analysis Coastline
• Rasterize the coastline into pixels– Vancouver Isle. 250m (default)– Monterey Bay 50m– NCA: Entire U.S 1km
1km
1km
Fetch Filter
vs.Sheltered Exposed
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Sea Level Rise
1 2 3 4 5
S p a ti a l Va r i a ti o n i n R a n kL o w S L R S c e n a r i o
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
NCA Vulnerability Scenarios
Scenario # Sea Level Rise Natural Habitat
1 Trend Habitat
2 Trend No Habitat
3 Low Habitat
4 Low No Habitat
5 Medium Habitat
6 Medium No Habitat
7 High Habitat
8 High No Habitat
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS
Dasymetric Mapping
• Distributing people for the Santa Cruz Area
L U L C L I M I T A T I O N S1. All built infrastructure assumed to
contain people2. Tree canopy masks some smaller
residential development (e.g. wealthy suburbs)
*Ideally we use parcel information*
NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS