volcafe nca 2014

VISIT PAULIG

WINTERTHUR JANUARY 2013

Volcafe, the Coffee Division of ED&F Man

Coffee Supply and Demand

NCA New Orleans 2014

agenda

everything else

agenda

• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances

global coffee production

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mio

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Others

Brazil & Vietnam

global coffee production share

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shar

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Brazil & Vietnam

climate change

RANK YEAR ANOMALY (C) ANOMALY (F)

1 2010 0.66 1.19

2 2005 0.65 1.17

3 1998 0.63 1.13

4 2013 0.62 1.12

5 2003 0.62 1.12

6 2002 0.61 1.10

7 2006 0.60 1.08

8 2009 0.59 1.07

9 2007 0.59 1.06

10 2004 0.57 1.04

TOP 10 WARMEST YEARS 1880-2013

climate change

agenda


brazilian summer drought

brazil rainfall forecast

ARABICA COFFEE TREE PHENOLOGY IN BRAZIL

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2014/15

cropReproductive

2015/16

cropVegetative

Source: Assad, Coltri, and Pinto

Vegetative growth, formation of productive nodes & vegetative buds Induction, differentiation, dormancy of flower buds

Flowering, fixing and fruit swelling Bean formation MaturationRest and dieback of

branches

brazil

weather problem starts

coffeeandclimate.org

brazil 2014/15: dec 2013 survey

brazil 2014/15 forecast (at Dec 13)

Brazilian Coffee Crop 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Mn 60 kg bags Dez 13

Minas Gerais 21.1 29.0 22.20 27.70 29.10 23.70

Cerrado 4.0 6.1 3.90 6.50 5.20 5.70

South Minas 11.6 15.9 12.50 15.20 15.40 11.80

Zona da Mata 5.5 7.0 5.80 6.00 8.50 6.20

ES 12.6 13.8 14.40 16.00 15.80 14.70

ES-Arabica 2.1 3.1 2.40 2.30 3.30 2.70

ES-Robusta 10.5 10.7 12.00 13.70 12.50 12.00

Sao Paulo 3.5 5.7 3.30 5.00 4.20 4.60

Mogiana 1.9 3.3 1.80 3.10 2.20 2.90

Paulista 0.9 1.5 0.70 1.10 1.05 0.90

Sorocabana 0.7 0.8 0.80 0.80 0.95 0.80

Parana 1.8 2.5 1.80 1.80 1.70 1.20

BA 3.0 3.3 3.00 3.20 2.70 3.00

BA-Arabica 2.0 2.5 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.80

BA-Robusta 1.0 0.8 1.00 1.40 1.10 1.20

RO 1.5 1.5 1.70 1.10 1.50 1.50

Others 1.5 1.8 1.60 2.00 2.20 2.00

Other-Arabica (GO, RJ, Others) 0.5 0.8 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.60

Other-Robusta (MG, MT, PA, RJ) 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.30 1.40 1.40

TOTAL 45.0 57.6 48.00 56.80 57.20 50.70

Arabica 31.0 43.6 32.30 39.30 40.70 34.60

Robusta 14.0 14.0 15.70 17.50 16.50 16.10

new 2014/15 fieldwork sdm/mogiana

new 2014/15 fieldwork cerrado

brazil soil moisture deficit south minas

source: Procafé bulletin

brazil soil moisture deficit cerrado


2014/15: a numbers game..

mio bags green

South Minas 11.8

Mogiana 2.9

Cerrado 5.7

ZDM 6.2

ES Arabica 2.7

29.3

take 29.3 mio bags

yield loss

480 litres cherry

per 1 bag green

bean becomes

loss

(bags green)

crop no.

(bags green)

2% 490 0.6 50.1

4% 500 1.2 49.5

8% 520 2.4 48.3

brazil balance

ARABICA COFFEE TREE PHENOLOGY IN BRAZIL


2014/15

cropReproductive

2015/16

cropVegetative

Source: Assad, Coltri, and Pinto

Vegetative growth, formation of productive nodes & vegetative buds Induction, differentiation, dormancy of flower buds

Flowering, fixing and fruit swelling Bean formation MaturationRest and dieback of

branches

brazil 2015/16


coffeeandclimate.org

brazil 2015/16 – no of new nodes/branch


for 2011/12 for 2012/13 for 2013/14 for 2014/15 for 2015/16

February of: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Varginha 5.9 6.3 5.4 7.0 6.2

Carmo Minas 4.9 6.3 5.5 6.7 6.4

Boa Esperanca 5.4 7.1 5.8 6.9 6.4

Muzambinho #N/A 5.8 6.4 5.8 6.4

Araxa #N/A 6.8 6.8 6.5 5.6

Patrocinio #N/A 6.9 5.7 6.7 6.6

Araguari #N/A 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.2

brazil 2015/16 – node recap

Process

Vegetative/

Reproductive Part Site Maximum number Normal Number

Vegetative

Growth Node Axil of Leaves

Per Branch :

N/A 8

Vegetative

Growth

Vegetative

Bud/Meristem

Node

(but invisible) Per Node: 12 8 or 10

Initiation /

Induction

Floral Bud (still

reversible) Node (invisible) Per Node: 12 6 or 8

Differentiation

Floral Bud

(irreversible)

Node

(visible) Per Node: 12 6 or 8

Flowering Flowers Floral Bud Per Node: 48

around 25 on a

good year?

Fixing Cherries Floral Bud Per Node: 48

60 -100% fixation

rate?

brazil 2015/16

vegetative bud gema vegetativa

flowering bud gema floral

branch (rarely)

remain undifferentiated to

conserve energy (and instead grow leaves,

grow other floral buds)

1.

2.

3.

brazil 2015/16

source: Majerowicz & Söndahl 2005

• ‘Little is known about the induction and development process of reproductive buds in Coffea arabica. Most of the information available covers the more advanced developmental phases of reproductive buds.’

brazil 2015/16

source: adapted from Camayo e Arcila, 1996

FOCUS FLORAL BUDS - INDUCTION & DIFFERENTIATION - ANOTHER SOURCE


New

branchesDifferentiation

2nd/3rd etc

crop

branches

Source: Majerowicz & Sondahl

2015/16

crop

Induction Differentiation

Induction Dormancy

brazil 2015/16


agenda

• some perspective • brazil • vietnam • american milds • demand rationing • balances & prices

vietnam rainfall

vietnam reservoir level

agenda


colombia recovery, centrals decline

colombia official green imports

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1.2

2011 2012 2013

mio

bag

s

Brazil

Ecuador

Peru

venezuela official green imports

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2010 2011 2012

mio

bag

s

Costa Rica

Honduras

Brazil

Nicaragua

centrals in detail

agenda


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2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

changing demand

Traditional Coffee Markets – W Europe, US, Canada, Japan

0.9 bio people

4.9 kg coffee per person per year

1% growth per year

Non-traditional Coffee Markets

6.2 bio people

0.7 kg coffee per person per year

4% growth per year

mio

bag

s

asia wins

huge substitution cannot happen again

robusta supply then and now

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2011/12 2013/14

mio

bag

s

liffe stocks (start season)

yoy increase in vietnam supply

total demand rationing

agenda


arabica balances

global arabica stocks

robusta balances

global robusta stocks

total s&d

total global coffee stocks

robusta ratios vs price

arabica ratios vs price

all stock/demand ratios

arabica price

Comparison of bull markets in arabica, from break-out to peak.

2015/16

If demand is 153 mio bags and production outside of Brazil & Vietnam holds still at 67 mio bags then Brazil and Vietnam need to produce 86 mio bags between them to balance the coffee market.

Thank you

volcafe nca 2014

Business

brazil rainfall

brazil balance

fieldwork cerrado

crop vegetative source

fieldwork sdmmogiana

brazilian coffee crop

share brazil vietnam

brazilian summer drought