volume 4 eia approach and summary · 2006. 4. 2. · mike bender scott mckenzie ross eccles ......

Acknowledgements

1.1 Introduction

This Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was prepared for Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited (Imperial Oil) by Golder Associates Ltd. (Golder), AXYS Environmental Consulting Ltd., Komex International Ltd., Nichols Applied Management, and Paragon Soil and Environmental Consulting Inc. as part of the Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development. Golder would like to thank Mr. Stuart Nadeau, Mr. Brian Head, Mr. Mark Little and Mr. Geoff Chow, among others at Imperial Oil for their assistance in providing the required source data and reviewing the material contained in this EIA. As this assessment builds on earlier assessments, Golder also acknowledges the contributions of other oil sands developers in the region. Golder would also like to acknowledge the contribution made to this EIA by the residents of Fort McKay, Fort Chipewyan and Fort McMurray. The following individuals were responsible for completing this document:

Project Management Drafting/GIS Air and Noise Ian Mackenzie Paul St. Rose Pam Depauw Ross Eccles Lindsay Giles Martin Rawlings Robin Isaacs Mel VanderWal Teresa Drew Dexter Craig Maura Speller Administrative Support Wade Ewen Filiz Onder Lesley Barless Mary Wong Robert Ulfig Karen Scoulding Jeff Anderson Tracy Comis Tina Shandera Bruce Kernohan Carolyn Decock Terry Van Staden Health & Safety Mark Jordan Vegetation Melanie Neufeld Joel Farah Linda Halsey Andrew Davis Ross Eccles Water Management Sheryl Litke Greg Allen Dejiang Long Chris Shupe Dana Bush Les Sawatsky Farley Klotz Nick DeCarlo Shouhong Wu Ann Olson Jennifer Doubt Candice Young Nancy O’Brien Fish and Fish Habitat Wildlife Gary Wang Chris Bjornson Amit Saxena Mike Bender Scott McKenzie Ross Eccles Terry Winhold Chris Stoez Peter Balagus Eric Sweet Ken Allen Lawrence Brusnyk Allan Wade Jeff Brezenski Alina Embacher Cameron Davis Grez McCormick Tony Calverley Mark Piorecky Gina Hoar Marie Niefeld

July 2005 VOLUME 4

Acknowledgements

Soils Health Water Quality Len Leskiw Laura Mucklow Andrews Takyi Lee Waterman Cindy Robinson Ian Mackenzie Kerri Lytwyn Geetha Ramesh Mike Wang Stella Swanson Zsolt Kovats Groundwater Michelle Irving Nicolas Lauzon Brent Mooder Jane Elser Jerry Vandenberg Mark Trudell Tammy Rosner David Dillon EIA Completion Team Darrell Jobson Vito Colella Ian Mackenzie Stacey Zhao Eric Wilson Robin Isaacs Walt Midgley Barbara McCord Resource Use Finn Rasmussen Ross Eccles Dave Brescia Mark Roblin Zane Gulley Trevor Scoular Benjamin Kampala Traditional Land Use Josef Varkonyi Jhernelyn Parinas Wendy Unfreed Gaëlle Eizlini Nicole Nicholls Water Quantity Brandi Joyal Anil Beersing Deb Beckett Historical Resources Getu Biftu John Gulley Wendy Unfreed Dejiang Long Cindy Hubick Femi Ade Pat Tones Socio-Economics Werner Herrera Lisa Bohach Maarten Ingen-Housz James Guthrie Bette Beswick Paul Vanderham Tammy Toby CCP – Fish Habitat Judith Romero CC&R Chris Bjornson Shona Rochefort Ross Eccles Alison Smith Carole Collins Dave Brescia Jeff Brezenski Lilyann Verge-Marion Linda Halsey Kelsi LeRossignol Dejiang Long Ian Mackenzie Lindsay Giles Len Leskiw Lee Waterman

The documents were reproduced and compiled by Little Rock Document Services. ♦

July 2005 VOLUME 4

SECTION 1: EIA Overview Subsection 1.0: Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION

Table of Contents

1.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................1-1 1.1.1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION........................................................................................1-1 1.1.2 OVERVIEW ..............................................................................................................1-1

1.2 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................1-5 1.2.1 LITERATURE CITED ..............................................................................................1-5

Figure List

Figure 1-1: Kearl Project Lease Areas and Project Development Area ...................................... 1-2 ♦

July 2005 Page 1-i VOLUME 4

SECTION 1: EIA Overview Subsection 1.1: Introduction 1.1 Introduction

1.1.1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION

The Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited (Imperial Oil) Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development (the Kearl project) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was based on the project plans, designs and management systems contained in volumes 1 and 2 of this application.

The proposed Kearl project consists of an oil sands mine and processing facilities on Imperial Oil and ExxonMobil leases 6, 87, 36, 31A, 88A and 88B. For the Kearl project development area (PDA), see Figure 1-1.

The proposed development consists of:

• four mine pits over the period 2010 to 2061

• ore preparation and bitumen facilities to provide an average of 24,000 tonnes per hour of mining capacity (about 300,000 barrels per day of clean bitumen capacity)

For further details on the proposed development, see Purpose of the Project under Volume 1, Section 2.2.

1.1.2 OVERVIEW

The EIA addresses the Terms of Reference (TOR) requirements as prescribed by Alberta Environment (AENV), issued April 22, 2004 (see Volume 1, Appendix A for the TOR), including information to address federal regulations, as well as additional information identified by other stakeholders. The EIA is a cumulative effects assessment and also meets the requirements of Section 16 of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act as well as the requirements detailed by AENV and the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) (AENV 2000). The Kearl project used the following information in developing this EIA:

• quantitative and qualitative information on the existing environmental conditions

• current, publicly available information about the past, existing and planned human activities and the nature, size, location and duration of their effects on the environment

• traditional knowledge and input from Aboriginal communities • information from Imperial Oil’s public consultation program • existing and proposed industrial development information, as well as activities

associated with land use and infrastructure, to the extent information is known and available to the public at the time of this assessment

• regional monitoring, research, and other strategies or plans to minimize, mitigate and manage potential adverse effects

July 2005 Page 1-1 VOLUME 4

Section 1: EIA Overview

Figure 1-1: Kearl Project Lease Areas and Project Development Area

Page 1-2 July 2005 VOLUME 4

Subsection 1.1: Introduction

This information was used to analyze and address potential effects through:

• using predictive tools and methods to quantitatively estimate future environmental conditions with a high degree of certainty

• evaluating effects and specifying the probability and importance of these effects in relation to management objectives or baseline conditions and with respect to the views of the proponent and stakeholders

• providing management plans to prevent or minimize adverse effects, to respond to expected or unanticipated conditions, and to monitor the accuracy of predictions or determine the effectiveness of mitigation plans

• providing a description of effects and their consequences for the environment and regional management initiatives

The EIA (see Volumes 4 through 9) and baseline sections (see Volume 3) include the following information for the key environmental components:

• description of the existing condition

• identification of environmental disturbance from previous activities

• description of the nature of environmental effects associated with development activities

• comments on whether available data are sufficient to assess effects and mitigations

• presentation of plans to minimize, mitigate or eliminate negative effects, together with a discussion of the key elements of such plans

• identification of effects after mitigation and the environmental consequence of those effects where relevant

• presentation of a plan to monitor environmental effects and manage environmental change to demonstrate the Kearl project is operating in an environmentally sound manner

• presentation of a plan that addresses the adverse effects associated with the Kearl project that may require joint resolution by government, industry and the community

• summaries of the mitigation measures that will be implemented for the Kearl project ♦


SECTION 1: EIA Overview Subsection 1.2: Bibliography 1.2 Bibliography

1.2.1 LITERATURE CITED

AENV (Alberta Environment). 2000. Cumulative Effects Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment Reports Required Under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act. Alberta Environment, Alberta Energy and Utilities Board and the Alberta Natural Resources Conservation Board. Edmonton, AB. 6 pp.

AENV. 2004. Final Terms of Reference: Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the Proposed Imperial Oil Resources Kearl Oil Sands Project. Issued by Alberta Environment, April 22, 2004. ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.0 Table of Contents

2 EIA APPROACH

Table of Contents

2.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................2-1 2.1.1 SECTION CONTENT...............................................................................................2-1

2.2 ASSESSMENT CASES....................................................................................................2-5 2.2.1 CASE DESCRIPTION ..............................................................................................2-5 2.2.2 EXISTING AND APPROVED CASE ......................................................................2-5 2.2.3 PROJECT CASE .......................................................................................................2-6 2.2.4 POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT CASE....................................................................2-6

2.3 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CONSIDERATIONS .................................................2-11 2.3.1 SPATIAL CONSIDERATIONS - STUDY AREAS...............................................2-11 2.3.2 TEMPORAL CONSIDERATIONS – SNAPSHOTS .............................................2-11

2.4 KEY INDICATOR RESOURCES (KIRS) ..................................................................2-13 2.5 KEY QUESTIONS.........................................................................................................2-15 2.6 LINKAGE ANALYSIS..................................................................................................2-17 2.7 MITIGATION ................................................................................................................2-19 2.8 EFFECTS ANALYSES..................................................................................................2-21 2.9 CLASSIFICATION OF EFFECTS..............................................................................2-23

2.9.1 PURPOSE AND APPLICATION OF EFFECTS CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM .2-23 2.9.2 CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA..............................................................................2-23 2.9.3 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCE.................................................................2-24

2.10 PREDICTION CONFIDENCE ....................................................................................2-27 2.10.1 CLIMATE CHANGE ..............................................................................................2-27

2.11 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING .....................................................................2-29 2.12 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..........................................................................................................2-31

2.12.1 LITERATURE CITED ............................................................................................2-31

Figure List

Figure 2-1: Existing and Approved, Kearl Project and Potential Oil Sands Developments........ 2-8 Figure 2-2: Key to Using Linkage Diagrams............................................................................. 2-18 Figure 2-3: Iterative Mitigation and Mine Planning Process..................................................... 2-20

Table List

Table 2-1: Assessment Cases....................................................................................................... 2-7 Table 2-2: Developments Included in Individual Component Assessments – Project Case ....... 2-9 Table 2-3: Developments Included in Individual Component Assessments – PDC ................. 2-10 Table 2-4: Linkage of Environmental Effects to Final Receptors ............................................. 2-23 ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.1: Introduction

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 SECTION CONTENT

The Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited (Imperial Oil) Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development (the Kearl project) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is organized by environmental and social components. The assessments consider each component under several development scenarios or cases. Each of the cases is a cumulative effects assessment as they consider the potential effects from all developments within the respective case. For a description of the development cases, see Section 2.2.1.

The relationship between the requirements of the Alberta Environment Terms of Reference (AENV 2004; see Volume 1, Appendix A) and the information in the Kearl project EIA is provided at the beginning of each EIA component. The requirements of the EIA Terms of Reference (TOR) are also cross-referenced to the section of the EIA where the requirements are addressed (see Concordance Table in Volume 4, Appendix 1).

Identifying and focusing on the issues that were of greatest concern to Aboriginals, stakeholders and regulators was an important component of the assessment process. Issues and responses from recent oil sands EIAs, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), the Regional Sustainable Development Strategy (RSDS) for the Athabasca oil sands region (AENV 1999), other relevant documents and information from consultation with key stakeholders on the Kearl project were evaluated.

Imperial Oil's consultation with Aboriginal groups is documented in the Traditional Land Use assessment (see Volume 9, Section 6) and this information was used in combination with information from past EIAs to address Aboriginal concerns in each section.

Some of the key oil sands environmental assessment issues identified include:

• air emissions and their effects on human health, wildlife and vegetation

• water quality and quantity (including water diversions)

• fish and fish habitat

• vegetation and wetlands diversity

• wildlife and wildlife habitat

• sustainable ecosystems and end land use

The EIA is explicit in identifying the issues by addressing key questions. These key questions frame how the relationships between the Kearl project and environmental effects are examined. This transparency is designed to allow


Section 2: EIA Approach

reviewers to understand the rationale and assumptions used to draw conclusions about the effects associated with the project.

The key questions are addressed in terms of spatial and temporal boundaries for the assessment. Spatial boundaries are classified into study areas.

The purpose of the EIA is to examine the relationships between the Kearl project activities and its potential impacts on the human and natural environments. These relationships are defined in terms of linkages. Linkage diagrams provide a means of depicting the interaction between components in the analysis of the key questions. The analysis of this interaction allows for assessment of effects in a broader ecological context.

The linkage analyses may also include consideration of key indicator resources (KIR) that allow for definable assessment and measurement end points for some environmental components. These KIRs are representative species and communities that allow for a focused examination of the ways the Kearl project may result in changes to the environment in terms of issues of importance to the potentially affected communities.

An important component of the analysis is the degree of confidence in the data and analysis. Each key question assessment contains a subsection that discusses the prediction confidence of the analysis. The effect of potential climate change is also included under this section because of the uncertainty that potential climate change may have on predictions.

Environmental and socio-economic effects on biological receptors are assessed in terms of effects classification criteria. These criteria are based on attributes such as direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration, reversibility and frequency. Effects classification criteria are applied only to those components that consider relevant biological receptors.

The format generally followed for each component in this EIA was to:

• describe the activities that could contribute to environmental change, specify which key questions would be assessed and identify the TOR clauses that would be addressed (see Introduction sections)

• review the key issues that arose from regulatory meetings, the key concerns from public consultation and Aboriginal traditional knowledge feedback and the issues from regional committees activities (see Approach and Methods sections)

• identify the development cases, list the developments relevant to each component, describe the spatial and temporal bounds for the component assessment, the relevant key indicators used, the methods and models employed, the sources of data and the quality control associated with the data (see Approach and Methods sections)


Subsection 2.1: Introduction

• summarize the baseline activities undertaken for the Kearl project and the baseline information compiled from other relevant sources (see Baseline Summary sections)

• assess each key question for each development case, as described in more detail below

• provide a conclusion of all of the key question assessments for the cases (see Conclusions sections)

Although the format and organization used to address each key question varied for each component, the following approach was generally used for each key question:

• describe the activities that could contribute to environmental change (see Introduction sections)

• review the methods used to carry out the assessment (see Methods sections) • describe the basis for the Existing and Approved Case (see Existing and

Approved Case sections) • assess the Kearl project (see Project Case sections) and Potential Development

Case (see Potential Development Case sections), including:

• analyze potential linkages between project activities and potential effects (see Linkage Analysis sections)

• identify and describe mitigation measures that were applied prior to assessment of effects (see Mitigation sections)

• analyze the effects (see Effects Analysis sections)

• classify the effects where relevant (see Effects Classification sections)

• review the confidence of the predictions (see Prediction Confidence sections), including:

• quantity and quality of baseline information

• confidence in predictions, measurements or analytical techniques

• confidence in the success of proposed mitigation measures

• assess potential climate change on project predictions

• identify and describe the management and monitoring activities proposed to confirm predictions (see Management and Monitoring sections), including:

• Imperial Oil’s involvement with regional committees

• Imperial Oil’s specific initiatives

The following sections provide additional detail on each of the topic areas described above. ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.2: Assessment Cases

2.2 Assessment Cases

2.2.1 CASE DESCRIPTION

The assessment cases for the Kearl project EIA include an Existing and Approved Case (EAC), a Project Case and a Potential Development Case (PDC). The EAC includes all existing and approved developments. The Project Case includes the existing and approved developments and the Kearl project. The PDC includes the Project Case components and potential developments that have been publicly disclosed at least six months prior to submission of this EIA.

The cases and the developments included in the three cases are summarized (see Table 2-1). The locations of oil sands developments included in the EAC, the location of Kearl project and the locations of developments included in the PDC assessment are presented (see Figure 2-1).

Pre-development conditions are described wherever feasible. For example, hydrological and water quality models are mostly calibrated based on non-affected watersheds. Sources are then added to the models consistent with the assessment case being considered. Terrestrial landscapes will be constructed based on available historical data and comparisons of disturbed to undisturbed areas.

Baseline or background conditions are considered to represent conditions that are measured in field programs for the Kearl project. In essence, baseline or background conditions represent conditions associated with existing developments. Even where pre-development conditions represent baseline or background conditions, often the term pre-development is reserved for a description of modelled conditions, whereas the term background is based on observed data.

2.2.2 EXISTING AND APPROVED CASE

The EAC conditions are described using baseline data specifically collected as part of this EIA, data collected as part of other regional environmental programs, and knowledge of the processes and effects of other developments approved but not yet built that may affect resources within the study areas.

Existing and approved activities in the Regional Study Area (RSA) include surface mine and in situ oil sands operations, pipelines, and non-oil and gas operations such as roadways and transmission lines, municipalities and forestry developments.

For the developments that were assessed by each EIA component, see Table 2-2. The characteristics and assumptions for each development are also described (see Appendix 2A).



2.2.3 PROJECT CASE

The Project Case includes an assessment of effects locally and regionally from the EAC plus effects from the Kearl project. This case allows determination of the incremental effect of the Kearl project over and above the EAC.

2.2.4 POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT CASE

The PDC includes existing and approved developments, the Kearl project and reasonably foreseeable potential developments. Although some of these developments have not yet been the subject of formal approval applications, if they were to proceed they could result in additional environmental effects in the study areas. Developments included in the PDC that were addressed by each EIA component are provided (see Table 2-3).


Subsection 2.2: Assessment Cases

Table 2-1: Assessment Cases EAC Project Case PDC

Existing + Approved Developments Existing + Approved Developments + Kearl Project

Existing and Approved Developments + Kearl Project + Potential Developments

Albian / Shell: Albian Sands Muskeg River Mine and Shell Jackpine Mine–Phase 1



Suncor Energy Inc.: Lease 86/17, Steepbank Mine, Fixed Plant Expansion, Fee Lot 2, Project Millennium, Firebag ETS, Firebag SAGD, Millennium Coker Unit (MCU) and South Tailings Pond (STP)

Suncor Energy Inc.: Lease 86/17, Steepbank Mine, Fixed Plant Expansion, Fee Lot 2, Project Millenium, Firebag ETS, Firebag SAGD, MCU and STP

Suncor Energy Inc.: Lease 86/17, Steepbank Mine, Fixed Plant Expansion, Fee Lot 2, Project Millenium, Firebag ETS, Firebag SAGD, MCU and STP

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: Mildred Lake Mining and Upgrading, Aurora North and South(a) Mines, Mildred Lake Upgrader Expansion and Emissions Reduction Program (ERP)

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: Mildred Lake Mining and Upgrading, Aurora North and South(a) Mines, Mildred Lake Upgrader Expansion and ERP

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: Mildred Lake Mining and Upgrading, Aurora North and South(a) Mines, Mildred Lake Upgrader Expansion and ERP

Devon Canada Corporation (Devon): Dover SAGD – In-situ Pilot Project and Jackfish SAGD Project



ConocoPhillips Canada: Surmont Commercial SAGD ConocoPhillips Canada: Surmont Commercial SAGD ConocoPhillips Canada: Surmont Commercial SAGD

Japan Canada Oil Sands Limited: Hangingstone – In-Situ Pilot



Petro-Canada: Mackay River and Meadow Creek(a) In-Situ



Petro-Canada / UTS: Fort Hills Oil Sands Project Petro-Canada / UTS: Fort Hills Oil Sands Project Petro-Canada / UTS: Fort Hills Oil Sands Project

Canadian Natural: Horizon Oil Sands Project Canadian Natural: Horizon Oil Sands Project Canadian Natural: Horizon Oil Sands Project

Canadian Natural: Burnt Lake, Primrose and Wolf Lake and Kirby Project



OPTI Canada Inc. / Nexen Canada Ltd.: Long Lake Pilot and Commercial Project



Deer Creek: Joslyn Project Pilot and Phase II Deer Creek: Joslyn Project Pilot and Phase II Deer Creek: Joslyn Project Pilot and Phase II

Imperial Oil Resources Limited: Cold Lake In-situ, existing plus Nabiye and Mahihkan North Expansion



EnCana Corporation: Christina Lake, Foster Creek Pilot and Phases 1 & 2



Orion (Petrobank): Whitesands Pilot Project Orion (Petrobank): Whitesands Pilot Project Orion (Petrobank): Whitesands Pilot Project

BlackRock: Orion EOR and Hilda Lake pilots BlackRock: Orion EOR and Hilda Lake pilots BlackRock: Orion EOR and Hilda Lake pilots

Husky: Tucker Thermal Project Husky: Tucker Thermal Project Husky: Tucker Thermal Project

Gas Plants: Devon, CNRL, EnCana, Husky, Paramount, Viking



Municipalities and Communities Municipalities and Communities Municipalities and Communities

Northland Forest Products: sawmill and Alpac Northland Forest Products: sawmill and Alpac Northland Forest Products: sawmill and Alpac

Aggregate Resources Aggregate Resources Aggregate Resources

E X I S T I N G

&

A P P R O V E D

Pipelines, Roadways, Others Pipelines, Roadways, Others Pipelines, Roadways, Others

The Project

Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited: Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development

Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited: Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development

Albian Sands Energy Inc. / Shell Canada Limited: Muskeg River Mine Expansion, Shell Jackpine Mine – Phase 2

Suncor: Voyageur Project – Growth Plans

Husky: Sunrise Thermal Project

Synenco Energy Inc.: Northern Lights Project

JACOS: Hangingstone SAGD Project

Petro-Canada: Lewis SAGD Project, Meadow Creek Expansion SAGD Project, Mackay River Expansion SAGD Project

MEG Energy Corp.: Christina Lake Regional Project – Pilot and Commercial

Deer Creek: Joslyn Creek SAGD Expansion and Mine Project

Canadian Natural: Horizon In-Situ Project, Primrose East In-Situ Oil Sands Project

Forestry

Birch Mountain Resources: Muskeg Valley Quarry

Major pipelines, utility corridors, roadways and others

P O T E N T I A L

Municipal Growth

NOTE: (a) Syncrude Aurora South Mine and Petro-Canada Meadow Creek have Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) Approval but have not applied for Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (EPEA) or Water Act Approvals.



Figure 2-1: Existing and Approved, Kearl Project and Potential Oil Sands Developments


Subsection 2.2: Assessment Cases

Table 2-2: Developments Included in Individual Component Assessments – Project Case EIA Component

Development Air

Quality Hydrogeology Aquatic

Resources Terrestrial Resources

Traditional Land Use

Resource Use

Historical Resources Health

Albian Sands Energy Inc. (Albian) / Shell Canada Limited (Shell): Muskeg River Mine

Albian Sands Energy Inc. (Albian) / Shell Canada Limited (Shell): Jackpine Mine – Phase I

Suncor Energy Inc.: Lease 86/17, Fixed Plant Expansion, Millenium Coker Unit, Fee Lot 2, Upgrader Complex

Suncor Energy Inc.: South Tailings Pond Project

Suncor Energy Inc.: Steepbank and Millennium Mines

Suncor Energy Inc.: Firebag ETS and Firebag SAGD

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: Mildred Lake Upgrader Expansion and Emissions Reduction Program (ERP)

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: North Mine and West Mine

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: Aurora North and South mines

Devon Canada Corporation: Dover SAGD – In-Situ and Pilot Project

Devon Canada Corporation: Jackfish SAGD Project

ConocoPhillips Canada: Surmont Commercial Project

Japan Canada Oil Sands Limited (JACOS): Hangingstone In-Situ Pilot

Petro-Canada: MacKay River In-Situ

Petro-Canada: Meadow Creek In-Situ

Petro-Canada / UTS: Fort Hills Oil Sands Project

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural): Kirby Pilot

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural): Burnt Lake Project

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural): Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ Project

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural): Horizon Oil Sands Project

OPTI/Nexen: Long Lake Pilot and Commercial Project

Deer Creek Energy Limited: Joslyn Project Pilot and Phase II


Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited (Imperial Oil): Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development

EnCana Corporation (EnCana): Christina Lake

EnCana Corporation (EnCana): Foster Creek Phases 1 and 2

Orion (Petrobank): Whitesands Project

BlackRock: Orion EOR Pilot and Hilda Lake pilots

Husky Energy: Tucker Thermal Project

Gas Plants: various

Municipalities

Aggregate Resources

Northland Forest Products (sawmill) and Alpac

Communities in RSA


NOTES: Included in assessments. Not included in assessments, except through assessments of air emission effects.

Blank Not applicable.



Table 2-3: Developments Included in Individual Component Assessments – PDC EIA Component

Development Air

Quality Hydrogeology Aquatic

Resources Terrestrial Resources

Traditional Land Use

Resource Use

Historical Resources Health

Albian Sands / Shell: Muskeg River Mine

Albian Sands / Shell: Jackpine Mine – Phase 1

Albian Sands / Shell: Shell MRM Expansion and Jackpine Mine – Phase 2

Suncor Energy Inc.: Voyageur Project – Growth Plans

Suncor Energy Inc.: Upgrader Complex – including Voyageur Project

Suncor Energy Inc.: Lease 86/17, Fixed Plant Expansion, Millennium Coker Unit, Fee Lot 2

Suncor Energy Inc.: Steepbank and Millennium Mines

Suncor Energy Inc.: South Tailings Pond Project

Suncor Energy Inc.: Firebag ETS and Firebag SAGD

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: Mildred Lake Upgrader Expansion and Emissions Reduction Program (ERP)

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: North Mine and West Mine

Syncrude Canada Ltd.: Aurora North and South Mines

Devon Canada Corporation: Dover SAGD In-Situ and Pilot Project

Devon Canada Corporation: Jackfish SAGD Project ConocoPhillips Canada: Surmont Commercial Project

JACOS: Hangingstone In-Situ Pilot

JACOS: Hangingstone SAGD Commercial

Petro-Canada: MacKay River In-Situ

Petro-Canada: Meadow Creek In-Situ

Petro-Canada: Meadow Creek Expansion SAGD Project

Petro-Canada: MacKay River Expansion SAGD Project

Petro-Canada: Lewis SAGD Project

Petro-Canada / UTS: Fort Hills Oil Sands Project

Canadian Natural: Kirby Pilot

Canadian Natural: Burnt Lake Project

Canadian Natural: Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ Project

Canadian Natural: Horizon Oil Sands Project

Canadian Natural: Horizon In-Situ Project

Canadian Natural: Primrose East In-Situ Oil Sands Project

OPTI/Nexen: Long Lake Pilot and Commercial Project

Deer Creek: Commercial Project

Deer Creek: Joslyn Creek SAGD Expansion and Mine Project


Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited (Imperial Oil): Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development

EnCana: Christina Lake

EnCana: Foster Creek Pilot

EnCana: Foster Creek Phases I & II

Orion (Petrobank): Whitesands Pilot BlackRock: Orion EOR Pilot and Hilda Lake pilots

Husky: Tucker Thermal Project

Husky: Sunrise Thermal Project Synenco: Northern Lights Project MEG: Christina Lake Regional Project – Pilot and Commercial Gas Plants: Various

Northland Forest Products: Sawmill; and Alpac

Municipalities Aggregate Resources

Birch Mountain Resources: Muskeg Valley Quarry


Communities in RSAs

NOTES: Included in assessments Not included in assessments, except through assessments of air emission effects

Blank Not applicable.

♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.3: Spatial and Temporal Considerations

2.3 Spatial and Temporal Considerations

2.3.1 SPATIAL CONSIDERATIONS - STUDY AREAS

Study areas were defined for the assessment of the potential effects from the Kearl project. The study areas may include both regional study areas (RSAs) and local study areas (LSAs) or may be represented by a single study area. Some study areas include only discrete locations (receivers, receptors or communities) and not a geographical boundary. A RSA is used to evaluate the effects of the Kearl project in terms of the larger geographic and ecological contexts. Local study areas are areas where baseline data is typically collected and are used to include and evaluate areas directly affected by the Kearl project. The spatial extent of the study areas vary for EIA components. The rationale for the selection of each study area is presented in each EIA section.

2.3.2 TEMPORAL CONSIDERATIONS – SNAPSHOTS

Since the Kearl project will be in operation for over 50 years and environmental effects from the project will extend beyond this period, the practical way to conduct the environmental assessment is to use time snapshots. The decision as to which time periods to use is specific to the component. The selection of the snapshots is determined based on ensuring that maximum effects are captured considering the various activities that are carried out at the Kearl project. This includes ensuring that the snapshots selected consider the important activities and effects that may be occurring at other existing, approved and potential developments. Each component discusses the snapshots that are used and the rationale for them. ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.4: Key Indicator Resources

2.4 Key Indicator Resources (KIRs)

Key Indicator Resources

The selection of KIRs is based on a process defined in detail by Golder (1999) and by a process used by CEMA (2001). In general, the KIRs have been selected based on ecological importance and vulnerability, resource use value, including traditional use context, monitoring value and social importance. Selection criteria details for aquatic resources and terrestrial resources KIRs are reviewed in the respective sections. ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.5: Key Questions

2.5 Key Questions

Key Questions

Key questions have been identified for each EIA component to address the specific issues identified by the community members, stakeholders, regulators or technical experts. Key questions also reflect the EIA Terms of Reference as these are designed to focus on the key issues associated with the proposed questions. Although key questions are used to focus the assessments, issues over and above those captured in the key questions are also addressed. Each EIA section describes the key questions that were evaluated.

Key questions were assessed for the Project Case. Key questions were assessed for the PDC if the linkage between effects from the Kearl project and existing and approved developments was not broken, i.e., the project contributed to a cumulative effect. ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.6: Linkage Analysis

2.6 Linkage Analysis

Linkage Analysis

The linkage analysis includes validation of causal linkages between the Kearl project activities and potential environmental effects. These linkages between activities and environmental change were evaluated for each EIA component.

Linkage diagrams were used to describe how project activities could potentially lead to environmental changes, which in turn could affect specific components of the environment. For an illustration of the general format of the linkage diagrams, see Figure 2-2. Symbols on the linkage diagrams include:

• ovals (project activities)

• rectangles (potential changes in the environment)

• diamonds (key questions)

• triangles (connection to or from a different environmental or social components)

These diagrams were used as tools to guide the analysis, which addresses each link on the linkage diagram. They show how the different environmental components are inter-related.

Validation of the link includes consideration of mitigation measures. Mitigation, within the context of this EIA, is defined as follows: “the application of design, construction or scheduling principles to minimize or eliminate potential adverse impacts and, where possible, enhance environmental quality” (Sadar 1994). For certain activities, ongoing mitigation (e.g., changes in operating practices) can minimize or eliminate physical or chemical stresses, thereby rendering invalid the link between an activity and an environmental change.

If a link between an activity and an environmental change was considered valid, the key question under consideration was examined. For environmental components with KIRs, effects on KIRs may have been evaluated separately. When the evaluation did not indicate a potential impact, the linkage was ruled invalid for the project and was not carried forward to the effects analysis portion of the key question.



Project activityPotential change in

environment (physicalor biological)

Key questions

Connectionto linkage diagram

for, or from adifferent environmental

or social component

Figure 2-2: Key to Using Linkage Diagrams

♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.7: Mitigation

2.7 Mitigation

Mitigation

This EIA assumes that mitigation measures are in-place for the Kearl project and is reflected in the assessment results.

The assessment process is iterative with respect to mitigation. EIA practitioners work with mine planners in the conceptual design of the mine plan by adopting sound environmental management strategies (e.g., see management plans, Volume 2), by using their past experience and by applying professional judgement to arrive at a preliminary mine plan.

In addition to the application of management strategies to arrive at this preliminary mine plan, other factors considered at this stage of project conceptualization include, for example: optimizing the location of the external tailings area; determining the need for seepage control; assessing whether streams can be adequately protected from the influence of process-affected seepage or whether they should be diverted around affected areas; and ensuring the sustainability of the reclamation landscape.

Semi-quantitative and quantitative analyses are then carried out on selected environmental components of the preliminary mine plan to gauge whether the effects will be acceptable. This typically includes applying a more sophisticated level of modelling to determine, for example, whether receiving watercourse quality meets threshold values; whether pit lake water can achieve acceptable quality considering the contributing reclamation water volumes and rates and given the intended materials to be deposited within the pit lake.

For examples of the semi-quantitative and quantitative analyses carried out on selected environmental components at the conceptualization and the preliminary stages of mine planning, see Alternative Design Considerations, Volume 1, Section 11.

Practitioners apply several layers of conservatism in determining the mitigation measures that should be incorporated at this stage of assessment to maximize the likelihood that the final mine plan will be environmentally sustainable and to minimize the number of iterations that would otherwise be required when detailed assessments are undertaken.

Once all components have undertaken these semi-quantitative and quantitative assessments, and a final mine plan has been tabled, detailed EIA modelling is done on all components (see Figure 2-3).

Even at this final stage of detailed modelling, projections may indicate that further mine plan adjustments are necessary to achieve environmental thresholds. As a result of these adjustments, the final mine plan must be restructured with another



iteration of detailed analyses and this process must be repeated until the residual effects are judged to be acceptable by the practitioners and the proponent. This process continues until the environmental consequence to receptors is reduced to negligible or acceptably low levels. There are technical and economic limits to how far this process can proceed.

EIA Practitioners

Best ProfessionalJudgement

Mining & Engineering


Alternatives SelectionProcess

and AssumedMitigation Measures

PreliminaryMine Plan

EIA Practitioners

Semi-QuantitativeModelling &Assessment


QuantitativeModelling

Implementation ofAdditional Mitigation

Measures

Final MinePlan

EIA Resultsand

Conclusions

Acceptable Resultsand Conclusions?

Additional MitigationRequired

EIA PractitionersDetailed EIAModelling &Assessment


Figure 2-3: Iterative Mitigation and Mine Planning Process

Most components in this EIA discusses the specific mitigation measures that were assumed for each key question assessment (see respective component key question subsections entitled Mitigation) and discuss the confidence in the success of the mitigation (see respective component key question subsections entitled Prediction Confidence). ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.8: Effects Analysis

2.8 Effects Analyses

Effects Analysis

An analysis of effects was carried out for each key question and for each case if the linkage analysis demonstrated that the Kearl project had a cumulative effect on the environmental or social resource. The analysis for the EAC is typically very short because the analysis and predictions are normally guided by the effect of the Kearl project in combination with other developments. In some instances the PDC was not analyzed because the key question was specific to a Kearl project issue (e.g., a pit lake) or because the Project Case analysis showed that the Kearl project had no measurable effect and therefore would not contribute to effects associated with other potential developments.

The models used to predict and the approaches used to analyze effects for each key question are described in the methods section for each component.

Quantitative methods of assessment were used where possible. Predictive modelling was used as a tool in the air, groundwater, surface water quantity, surface water quality, fish and fish habitat, and wildlife habitat assessments. Risk assessment techniques were used to assess effects on human, fish and wildlife health. Geographic information systems were used to assess effects on terrestrial resources and resource use. The assessment techniques are described in the EIA component sections. ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.9: Classification of Effects

2.9 Classification of Effects

2.9.1 PURPOSE AND APPLICATION OF EFFECTS CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM

A classification system was developed to provide a framework to describe the effects of the Kearl project on the final biophysical receptors. For this EIA, final receptors that were selected are the following:

• fish and fish habitat

• vegetation and wetlands

• wildlife

• human, wildlife and aquatic health

The classification framework was not applied to other environmental components, such as groundwater or air quality, because effects on those components are ultimately expressed on the final receptors listed above (see Table 2-4). The classification framework was also not applied to human environment receptors (i.e., resource use, historical resources, socio-economics or visual aesthetics).

Table 2-4: Linkage of Environmental Effects to Final Receptors

Final Receptor

Environmental Component

Fish and fish

habitat

Vegetation and

wetlands Wildlife Human health

Aquatic health

Wildlife health

Air Quality and Noise Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Groundwater Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Surface Water Quantity Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Surface Water Quality Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Fish and Fish Habitat Yes

Soil and Terrain Yes Yes

Vegetation and Wetlands Yes Yes Yes

Wildlife Yes Yes Yes

Human Health Yes

Wildlife Health Yes Yes

Aquatic Health Yes Yes Yes

Resource Use Yes Yes Yes

2.9.2 CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA

The effects assessed in the EIA are defined as environmental changes that result from the Kearl project, in combination with other developments, after measures to reduce the effects from the project have been incorporated. The effect is assessed according to three criteria: magnitude, geographic extent and duration.



Magnitude describes the intensity, or severity, of the effect. It is often described as the amount of change in a measurable parameter or variable relative to the basis of the assessment, guidelines or standards. The specific definition used to determine the magnitude rating (negligible, low, moderate, high) is defined by each discipline. The ratings are related to the characteristic being investigated, the methods available to measure the effect, and the accepted practice in each discipline. Definitions of magnitude are unique to each characteristic.

Geographic extent is the spatial area over which the effect of the Kearl project is measureable. The geographic extent rating of an effect is defined as:

• local if the effect is restricted to the local study area

• regional if the effect extends beyond the local study area

The boundaries of the local and regional study areas are established by each component.

Duration refers to the length of time over which an environmental effect occurs. It reflects the length of time for the environmental component to recover from the disturbance. Duration ratings are defined as:

• Short-term – effects lasts less than a year

• Medium-term – effect lasts longer than one year, but not beyond the life of the project

• Long-term – generally effect extends not more than 30 years beyond the life of the project

• Far-future – generally effect extends more than 30 years beyond the life of the project

Short-term, medium-term and long-term durations are considered to be reversible effects. Far-future effects are considered to be not reversible.

2.9.3 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCE

A rating for environmental consequence has been developed to provide an indication of the potential for the Kearl project, in combination with other developments in the region, to contribute to long-term reductions in regional species or community diversity. Four environmental consequence ratings have been defined:

• None – the project will have no measurable effect on regional species or community diversity


Subsection 2.9: Classification of Effects

• Low – the project will contribute to a short- to medium-term loss of regional species or community diversity but species or communities of regional concern will not be affected

• Moderate – the project will contribute to a long-term or far-future loss of regional species or community diversity but species or communities of regional concern will not be affected

• High – the project will contribute to regional loss of species or community diversity, including species or communities of regional concern ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.10: Prediction Confidence

2.10 Prediction Confidence

Prediction Confidence

The purpose of an EIA is to predict the future conditions of environmental or social components that are, by their nature, continuously changing and dynamic. As a result, there is a degree of confidence associated with the predictions presented in the EIA.

The degree of confidence in predictions was addressed in various ways depending on the component. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis were used as tools for determining prediction confidence. In some cases quantitative uncertainty analyses were used as surrogates for assigning prediction confidence for different locations and at different times. Some components use semi-quantitative methods to assess prediction confidence. Other sources of information, such as the conservative nature of assumptions and experience gained from other projects, were included if available. Prediction confidence was addressed for most key questions based on the following criteria:

• quality and quantity of baseline information

• confidence in measurements or analytical techniques (e.g., modelling) used to assess resource effects

• confidence in the success of mitigation and predicted residual effects after mitigation

2.10.1 CLIMATE CHANGE

The effect of climate change is also included under the prediction confidence discussion because of the uncertainty that climate change may have on predictions.

Guidance on how such evaluations should be done is provided both by the EIA TOR as well as federal guidance documents (FPTCCCEA 2003).

The contributions of the Kearl project to greenhouse gas emissions was quantified (see Volume 2, Section 4). The effect of climate change on the Kearl project predictions was discussed for the Project Case for each key question in relevant EIA components. A comprehensive review of climate change consideration in the oil sands region was used by EIA components in their individual analyses (see Appendix 2B). ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.11: Management and Monitoring

2.11 Management and Monitoring

Management and Monitoring

Management and monitoring is proposed to confirm, where appropriate, that mitigation measures are functioning as predicted and environmental quality is being safeguarded (see respective component key question subsections entitled Management and Monitoring).

Management and monitoring related to regional issues may require co-operative initiatives among operators and stakeholders. The regional issues are discussed under the subheading entitled Regional Committees. Where applicable, initiatives specific to the Kearl project have been discussed under the subheading entitled Imperial Oil Initiatives. ♦


SECTION 2: EIA Approach Subsection 2.12: Bibliography

2.12 Bibliography


AENV (Alberta Environment). 1999. Regional Sustainable Development Strategy for the Athabasca Oil Sands Area. Publication No. 1/754. Edmonton, AB. 5 Appendices.

AENV. 2004. Final Terms of Reference: Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the Proposed Imperial Oil Resources Kearl Oil Sands Project. Issued by Alberta Environment, April 22, 2004.

CEMA (Cumulative Environmental Management Association). 2001. Sustainable Ecosystem Working Group. Terms of Reference and Work Plan. August 2001. Draft Report. Fort McMurray, AB.

FPTCCCEA (Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Assessment). 2003. Incorporating Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Assessment: General Guidance for Practitioners. November 2003. 48 pp.

Golder (Golder Associates Ltd.). 1999. Potential Key Indicator Resources (KIRs) for the Mobi Kearl Oil Sands Project. Prepared for Mobile Oil Canada Properties. Calgary, AB. 106 pp + Appendices.

Sadar, M.H. 1994. Environmental Impact Assessment. Carleton University Press for the Impact Assessment Centre. Carleton University. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.0: Table of Contents 3 EIA SUMMARY

Table of Contents

3.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................3-1 3.1.1 OVERVIEW ..............................................................................................................3-1

3.2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND PUBLIC CONSULTATION .................................3-3 3.2.1 THE KEARL PROJECT DESCRIPTION.................................................................3-3 3.2.2 PUBLIC CONSULTATION .....................................................................................3-3

3.3 EIA OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................3-7 3.3.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................3-7 3.3.2 EIA PROCESS ..........................................................................................................3-7

3.3.2.1 Information Used in the EIA ............................................................................. 3-7 3.3.2.2 Issues and EIA Approach .................................................................................. 3-8 3.3.2.3 Mitigation .......................................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.2.4 Effects Classification......................................................................................... 3-9 3.3.2.5 Prediction Confidence ..................................................................................... 3-10 3.3.2.6 Assessment Cases............................................................................................ 3-10

3.3.3 ORGANIZATION OF THE EIA.............................................................................3-13 3.3.3.1 Volume and Section Organization................................................................... 3-13 3.3.3.2 Assessment Format.......................................................................................... 3-13

3.4 AIR QUALITY...............................................................................................................3-15 3.4.1 AMBIENT AIR QUALITY.....................................................................................3-15 3.4.2 POTENTIAL ACID INPUT....................................................................................3-15 3.4.3 OZONE....................................................................................................................3-16 3.4.4 ODOURS .................................................................................................................3-16 3.4.5 COMPLIANCE WITH EMISSION GUIDELINES ...............................................3-16 3.4.6 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS........................................................................3-16 3.4.7 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................3-16

3.5 NOISE .............................................................................................................................3-19 3.5.1 LOCAL NOISE LEVELS AND NOISE AT DWELLINGS ..................................3-19 3.5.2 AIR TRAFFIC NOISE LEVELS.............................................................................3-19

3.6 WATER...........................................................................................................................3-21 3.6.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................3-21

3.7 GROUNDWATER .........................................................................................................3-27 3.7.1 GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND FLOWS ..........................................................3-27 3.7.2 GROUNDWATER QUALITY ...............................................................................3-27

3.8 SURFACE WATER QUANTITY ................................................................................3-29 3.8.1 FLOWS, WATER LEVELS AND OPEN WATER AREAS .................................3-29

3.8.1.1 Flows and Water Levels .................................................................................. 3-29 3.8.1.2 Open-Water Areas ........................................................................................... 3-31

3.8.2 SEDIMENT YIELDS, CONCENTRATIONS AND CHANNEL REGIMES........3-31 3.8.3 CLOSURE DRAINAGE SUSTAINABILITY........................................................3-32

3.9 SURFACE WATER QUALITY ...................................................................................3-33 3.9.1 WATER QUALITY SUBSTANCE CONCENTRATIONS...................................3-33

3.9.1.1 Athabasca and Firebag Rivers ......................................................................... 3-33


Section 3: EIA Summary

3.9.1.2 Muskeg River .................................................................................................. 3-33 3.9.1.3 Wapasu Creek and the Unnamed Tributary of the Muskeg River .................. 3-33 3.9.1.4 Kearl Lake ....................................................................................................... 3-34

3.9.2 THERMAL REGIME..............................................................................................3-34 3.9.3 DISSOLVED OXYGEN .........................................................................................3-34 3.9.4 PAH AND METALS LEVELS IN SEDIMENTS ..................................................3-34 3.9.5 ACIDIFICATION....................................................................................................3-34 3.9.6 PIT LAKES..............................................................................................................3-34

3.10 FISH AND FISH HABITAT .........................................................................................3-35 3.10.1 FISH HABITAT ......................................................................................................3-35 3.10.2 FISH ABUNDANCE...............................................................................................3-35 3.10.3 FISH AND FISH HABITAT DIVERSITY.............................................................3-36 3.10.4 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................3-36

3.11 LAND...............................................................................................................................3-37 3.11.1 LAND INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................3-37

3.12 SOILS AND TERRAIN .................................................................................................3-39 3.12.1 TOPOGRAPHIC DIVERSITY ...............................................................................3-39 3.12.2 SOIL SERIES DIVERSITY ....................................................................................3-39 3.12.3 EDAPHIC DIVERSITY ..........................................................................................3-39 3.12.4 LAND CAPABILITY..............................................................................................3-39 3.12.5 AIR EMISSIONS AND SOIL SERIES...................................................................3-39

3.13 VEGETATION...............................................................................................................3-41 3.13.1 LANDSCAPE DIVERSITY....................................................................................3-41 3.13.2 COMMUNITY DIVERSITY ..................................................................................3-41 3.13.3 SPECIES DIVERSITY............................................................................................3-42 3.13.4 AIR EMISSIONS AND LANDSCAPE DIVERSITY ............................................3-42 3.13.5 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................3-43

3.14 WILDLIFE .....................................................................................................................3-45 3.14.1 SPECIES DIVERSITY............................................................................................3-45 3.14.2 COMMUNITY DIVERSITY ..................................................................................3-45 3.14.3 LANDSCAPE FUNCTION.....................................................................................3-46 3.14.4 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................3-46

3.15 ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH ...................................................................................3-49 3.15.1 ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH INTRODUCTION...............................................3-49

3.16 HUMAN HEALTH ........................................................................................................3-51 3.16.1 LONG-TERM EFFECTS ........................................................................................3-51 3.16.2 SHORT-TERM EFFECTS ......................................................................................3-51 3.16.3 PARTICULATE MATTER.....................................................................................3-51 3.16.4 RECLAMATION WATERBODIES AND WATERCOURSES............................3-51 3.16.5 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................3-51

3.17 WILDLIFE HEALTH ...................................................................................................3-53 3.17.1 LONG-TERM EFFECTS ........................................................................................3-53 3.17.2 RECLAMATION WATERBODIES.......................................................................3-53 3.17.3 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................3-53

3.18 AQUATIC HEALTH.....................................................................................................3-55 3.18.1 AQUATIC HEALTH...............................................................................................3-55

Page 3-ii July 2005 VOLUME 4

Subsection 3.0: Table of Contents

3.18.2 PIT LAKES..............................................................................................................3-55 3.18.3 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................3-55

3.19 PEOPLE..........................................................................................................................3-57 3.19.1 PEOPLE INTRODUCTION....................................................................................3-57

3.20 RESOURCE USE...........................................................................................................3-59 3.20.1 AGGREGATE RESOURCES.................................................................................3-59 3.20.2 AGRICULTURE .....................................................................................................3-59 3.20.3 FORESTRY .............................................................................................................3-59 3.20.4 HUNTING AND TRAPPING .................................................................................3-59 3.20.5 FISHING..................................................................................................................3-59 3.20.6 DESIGNATED ECOLOGICAL AREAS................................................................3-60 3.20.7 RECREATION AND TOURISM............................................................................3-60 3.20.8 ACCESS ..................................................................................................................3-60 3.20.9 VISUAL AESTHETICS..........................................................................................3-60 3.20.10 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING........................................................3-61

3.21 HISTORICAL RESOURCES.......................................................................................3-63 3.22 SOCIO-ECONOMICS...................................................................................................3-65

3.22.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANS, POLICIES AND INITIATIVES ...........................3-65 3.22.2 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS .................................................................3-65 3.22.3 POPULATION IMPACTS ......................................................................................3-66 3.22.4 COMMUNITY IMPACTS ......................................................................................3-66

3.23 TRADITIONAL LAND USE ........................................................................................3-67 3.24 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..........................................................................................................3-69

3.24.1 LITERATURE CITED ............................................................................................3-69

Figure List

Figure 3-1: Kearl Project Location ..............................................................................................3-4 Figure 3-2: Kearl Project Lease Area and Project Development Area........................................3-5 Figure 3-3: Iterative Mitigation and Mine Planning Process.......................................................3-9 Figure 3-4: Oil Sands Developments.........................................................................................3-12 Figure 3-5: Muskeg River Watershed Boundaries – Kearl Project ...........................................3-22 Figure 3-6: Closure Drainage Plan – Kearl Project ...................................................................3-23 Figure 3-7: Integrated Closure Drainage Plan – Muskeg River Watershed ..............................3-24 Figure 3-8: Groundwater and Aquatics Study Areas.................................................................3-25 Figure 3-9: Aquatics Assessment Nodes ...................................................................................3-26 Figure 3-10: Land LSAs and RSAs ...........................................................................................3-38 Figure 3-11: People LSAs and RSAs.........................................................................................3-58 ♦

July 2005 Page 3-iii VOLUME 4

SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.1: Introduction 3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 OVERVIEW

This section of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) presents the summary of the EIA for the Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited (Imperial Oil) Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development (the Kearl project).

The objective of the EIA is to identify and assess potential effects associated with the construction, operation, reclamation and closure of the Kearl project. The EIA explains the environmental effects of the project and other existing and potential activities in the area related to the Kearl project. The EIA report has been prepared in accordance with the requirements prescribed under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (EPEA), and other federal legislation, which may apply to the Kearl project. It forms part of Imperial Oil’s application to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) for approval under the Oil Sands Conservation Act (OSCA).

The EIA and Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) were completed for the Kearl project, with consideration of the Terms of Reference (TOR) as issued by Alberta Environment (AENV 2004).

The following sections are included in the EIA Summary:

• Project Description and Public Consultation program: provides an overview of the Project and the public consultation program (see Section 3.2).

• Introduction and EIA Overview: outlines the approach and methods used for the EIA and SEIA (see Section 3.3).

• Summary of Air Quality and Noise assessment: provides a summary of the air quality and noise assessment (see Sections 3.4 and 3.5).

• Summary of Water assessments: provides a summary of the groundwater, surface water quantity, surface water quality and fish and fish habitat assessments (see Sections 3.6 to 3.10).

• Summary of Land assessments: provides a summary of the assessment for soil and terrain, vegetation and wetlands and wildlife (see Sections 3.11 to 3.14).

• Summary of Environmental Health assessments: provides a summary of the assessment for human health, wildlife health, and aquatic health (see Sections 3.15 to 3.18).

• Summary of People assessments: provides a summary of the assessment completed for resource use, historical resources, socio-economics and traditional land use (see Sections 3.19 to 3.23). ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.2: Project Description and Public Consultation 3.2 Project Description and Public Consultation

3.2.1

3.2.2

THE KEARL PROJECT DESCRIPTION

The Kearl project EIA is based on the project plans, designs and management systems described in Volumes 1 and 2 of this application. For the location of the project, see Figure 3-1.

The proposed Kearl project consists of an oil sands mine and processing facilities on Imperial Oil’s Leases 6, 87, 36, 31A, 88A and 88B. For the Kearl project development area (PDA), see Figure 3-2.

The proposed development consists of:

• four mine pits over the period 2010 to 2060

• ore preparation and bitumen separation facilities to provide an average of 24,000 tonnes per hour of mining capacity (about 300,000 barrels per calendar day of clean bitumen capacity) once all three trains are operational

For further details on the proposed development, see Purpose of the Project under Volume 1, Section 2.2.

PUBLIC CONSULTATION

Imperial Oil has developed and implemented a comprehensive consultation program for the Kearl project that:

• proactively solicits input from stakeholders

• provides ongoing feedback to stakeholders

• fosters trust, credibility and integrity

Furthermore, Imperial Oil will make every attempt to ensure stakeholders receive project information in a timely manner, i.e.:

• before filing the application

• during the regulatory review process

• during construction

• during operation

This will be done to ensure that public input is used to identify and resolve issues and concerns throughout the project life.



Figure 3-1: Kearl Project Location


Subsection 3.2: Project Description and Public Consultation

Figure 3-2: Kearl Project Lease Area and Project Development Area



Imperial Oil has consulted with and continues to consult with individuals and groups who are affected by or who demonstrate an interest in the project including:

• local trappers

• First Nations and Metis organizations

• local communities

• local schools and community colleges

• regional municipality of Wood Buffalo

• regulatory agencies (both provincial and federal)

• environmental non-government organizations

• adjacent lease holders and other industry members

• local business interests ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.3: EIA Overview 3.3 EIA Overview

3.3.1

3.3.2

INTRODUCTION

The Kearl project application and EIA employed techniques in accordance with regulatory requirements. The EIA addresses the requirements of the project TOR as well as additional information to address federal regulations or stakeholder concerns. The cumulative effects assessment completed as an integral component of the EIA meets the requirements of Section 16 of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA).

EIA PROCESS

A variety of information was used in completing the Kearl project application and EIA. The information included project design details and environmental and socio-economic information collected for the project and at project locations. In addition, information produced by other developers in support of applications and EIAs for oil sands operations was considered for the project.

This EIA also includes the most recent approaches and information from oil sands regional committees and working groups. This information is used for preparing EIAs as well as for the initial design work on project-specific monitoring programs, environmental management planning, reclamation and closure planning and in the design of research programs. Imperial Oil will continue to incorporate findings and recommendations of the regional efforts into the adaptive management of its oil sands operations.

3.3.2.1 Information Used in the EIA

Information used in developing the Kearl project EIA included:

• quantitative and qualitative information on the existing environmental conditions

• current, publicly available information about the past, existing and planned human activities and the nature, size, location and duration of their effects on the environment

• existing and proposed industrial development information, as well as activities associated with land use and infrastructure, to the extent information is known and available to the public at the time of this assessment

• regional monitoring, research, and other strategies or plans to minimize, mitigate and manage potential adverse effects



3.3.2.2 Issues and EIA Approach

Identifying and focusing on the issues that were of greatest concern to stakeholders and regulators was an important component of the assessment process. Issues and concerns were documented from Imperial Oil’s public consultation process, feedback from the Aboriginal communities, issues from recent oil sands EIAs, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) and the Regional Sustainable Development Strategy (RSDS) for the Athabasca oil sands region (AENV 1999).

The EIA is explicit in identifying the issues by addressing key questions. These key questions frame how the relationships between the project and the environmental effects are examined. This approach is designed to allow reviewers to understand the rationale and assumptions used to draw conclusions about the effects associated with the project.

Key questions are addressed in terms of spatial and temporal boundaries for the assessment. Spatial boundaries are classified into study areas that may include local study areas (LSAs) and regional study areas (RSAs), where relevant. The LSAs are used to evaluate areas directly impacted by the development. The RSA is used to evaluate the impacts of the project in terms of the larger regional geographic and ecologic contexts.

3.3.2.3 Mitigation

This EIA assumes that mitigation measures are in place for the Kearl project and is reflected in the assessment results. The assessment process is iterative with respect to mitigation. EIA practitioners work with mine planners in the conceptual design of the mine plan by adopting sound environmental management strategies; by using their past experience; and by applying professional judgement to arrive at a preliminary mine plan.

In addition to the application of management strategies to arrive at this preliminary mine plan, other factors considered at this stage of project conceptualization include, for example: optimizing the location of the external tailings area; determining the need for seepage control; assessing whether streams can be adequately protected from the influence of process-affected seepage or whether they should be diverted around affected areas; and ensuring the sustainability of the reclamation landscape.

Semi-quantitative and quantitative analyses are then carried out on selected environmental components of the preliminary mine plan to gauge whether the effects will be acceptable. This typically includes applying a more sophisticated level of modelling to determine, for example, whether receiving watercourse quality meets threshold values; whether pit lake water can achieve acceptable quality considering the contributing reclamation water volumes and rates and given the intended materials to be deposited within the pit lake.


Subsection 3.3: EIA Overview

Examples of the semi-quantitative and quantitative analyses carried out on selected environmental components at the conceptualization and the preliminary stages of mine planning are provided in the Kearl project application.

Practitioners apply several layers of conservatism in determining the mitigation measures that should be incorporated at this stage of assessment to maximize the likelihood that the final mine plan will be environmentally sustainable and to minimize the number of iterations that would otherwise be required when detailed assessments are undertaken.

Once all components have done these semi-quantitative and quantitative assessments, and a final mine plan has been tabled, detailed EIA modelling is carried out by all components (see Figure 3-3).

Even at this final stage of detailed modelling, projections may indicate that further mine plan adjustments are necessary to achieve environmental thresholds. As a result of these adjustments, the final mine plan must be restructured with another iteration of detailed analyses and this process must be repeated until the residual effects are judged to be acceptable by the practitioners and the proponent. This process continues until the environmental consequence to receptors is reduced to negligible or acceptably low levels. There are technical and economic limits to how far this process can proceed.

EIA Practitioners




Alternatives SelectionProcess

and AssumedMitigation Measures

PreliminaryMine Plan

EIA Practitioners

Semi-QuantitativeModelling &Assessment


QuantitativeModelling

Implementation ofAdditional Mitigation

Measures

Final MinePlan

EIA Resultsand

Conclusions

Acceptable Resultsand Conclusions?


EIA PractitionersDetailed EIAModelling &Assessment


Figure 3-3: Iterative Mitigation and Mine Planning Process

3.3.2.4 Effects Classification

Environmental and socio-economic effects on biological receptors are assessed in terms of effects classification criteria. These criteria are based on attributes such as direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration, reversibility and frequency. Effects classification criteria are applied only to those components that consider relevant biological receptors.



3.3.2.5 Prediction Confidence

The purpose of an EIA is to predict the future conditions of environmental or social components that are, by their nature, continuously changing and dynamic. As a result, there is a degree of confidence associated with the predictions.

The degree of confidence in predictions was addressed in various ways depending on the component. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis were used as tools for determining prediction confidence. In some cases quantitative uncertainty analyses were used as surrogates for assigning prediction confidence for different locations and at different times. Some components use semi-quantitative methods to assess prediction confidence. Other sources of information, such as the conservative nature of assumptions and experience gained from other projects, were included if available. Prediction confidence was addressed for most key questions based on the following criteria:

• quality and quantity of baseline information

• confidence in measurements, or analytical techniques (e.g., modelling) used to assess resource effects

• confidence in the success of mitigation and predicted residual effects after mitigation

The effect of potential climate change is also included under the prediction confidence discussion because of the uncertainty that climate change may have on predictions.

Guidance on how such evaluations should be done is provided both by the EIA TOR as well as federal guidance documents (FPTCCCEA 2003).

The contributions of the Kearl project to greenhouse gas emissions was quantified. The effect of climate change on the Kearl project predictions was discussed for the Project Case for each key question in relevant EIA components. A comprehensive review of climate change consideration in the oil sands region was used by EIA components in their individual analyses.

3.3.2.6 Assessment Cases

The assessment cases for the Kearl project EIA include an Existing and Approved Case (EAC), a Project Case and a Potential Development Case (PDC). The EAC includes all existing and approved developments. The Project Case includes the existing and approved developments and the Kearl project. The PDC includes the Project Case components and potential developments that have been publicly disclosed at least six months prior to submission of this EIA.



For the locations of the existing and approved oil sands developments included in the EAC, the Kearl project and the potential developments included in the PDC, see Figure 3-4.

The Project Case and PDC are both cumulative effects assessments as they consider the effects of existing and approved developments in combination with the project and then in combination with other potential developments. The cumulative effects assessments aspect of the project has been completed to comply with the requirements for cumulative effects assessments, as detailed in the document “Cumulative Effects Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment Reports under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act” (AENV 2000) as well as to meet the requirements of Section 16 of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA). The process for completing the cumulative effects assessment as an integral component of the Kearl project EIA included consideration of guideline information as provided in the Athabasca Oil Sands Cumulative Effects Framework Report (Golder 1999), as well as the Cumulative Effects Practitioners Guide (Hegmann et al. 1999).

The PDC assessment was not undertaken when the linkage analysis completed under the Project Case resulted in an invalid linkage between project activities and potential environmental effects. The PDC provides a very conservative assessment of social and environmental conditions because the developments included in the assessment may or may not proceed and because all developments assumed full build-out. The PDC is not included in this EIA Summary.



Figure 3-4: Oil Sands Developments



3.3.3 ORGANIZATION OF THE EIA

3.3.3.1 Volume and Section Organization

The Kearl project application and EIA have been organized into a number of volumes and sections:

• Volumes 1 – Project Description

• Volume 2 – Management Processes

• Volume 3 – Baseline Reports

• Volume 4 – EIA Overview and Summary

• Volume 5 – Air and Noise

• Volume 6 – Water

• Volume 7 – Land

• Volume 8 – Environmental Health

• Volume 9 – People

3.3.3.2 Assessment Format

The assessment format generally followed for each component of the EIA was to:

• describe the activities that could contribute to environmental change, specify which key questions would be assessed and identify the TOR that would be addressed (see Introduction sections)

• review the key issues that arose from regulatory meetings, the key concerns from public consultation and Aboriginal traditional knowledge feedback and the issues from regional committees activities (see Approach and Methods sections)

• identify the assessment cases, list the developments relevant to each component, describe the spatial and temporal bounds for the component assessment, the relevant key indicators used, the methods and models employed, the sources of data and the quality control associated with the data

• summarize the baseline activities undertaken for the project and the baseline information compiled from other relevant sources

• assess each key question for each assessment case, as described in more detail below

• provide a conclusion of all of the key question assessments for the cases



Although the format and organization used to address each key question varied for each component, the following approach was generally used for each key question:

• describe the activities that could contribute to environmental change

• review the methods used to carry out the assessment

• describe the basis for the Existing and Approved Case

• assess the Kearl project and Potential Development Case, including:

• analyze potential linkages between project activities and potential effects

• identify and describe mitigation measures that were applied prior to assessment of effects

• analyze the effects

• classify the effects where relevant

• review the confidence of the predictions, including:

• quantity and quality of baseline information

• confidence in predictions, measurements or analytical techniques

• confidence in the success of proposed mitigation measures

• assess potential climate change on project predictions

• identify and describe the management and monitoring activities proposed to confirm predictions, including:

• Imperial Oil’s involvement with regional committees

• Imperial Oil’s specific initiatives ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.4: Air Quality 3.4 Air Quality

3.4.1

3.4.2

AMBIENT AIR QUALITY

Predictions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were determined for both the RSA and the LSA. Predictions were made for selected regional community receptors, including six communities in Alberta, two communities in Saskatchewan and three locations of importance to First Nations groups in the area. The model was also used to predict air quality parameters at seven hunter-trapper cabin locations close to the project.

The project will contribute 0.67 t/d SO2 and 42.68 t/d NOX emissions to the airshed. The cumulative loading under the Project Case includes a total of 246.16 t/d of SO2 emissions and 440.79 t/d of oxides of nitrogen (NOX) emissions. Although the project will result in increased SO2 and NO2 concentrations within the RSA and LSA, the maximum predicted 1-hour, 24-hour and annual concentrations for both compounds, excluding developed areas, remain in compliance with the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objectives.

Predicted concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO, H2S, CS2, formaldehyde and benzene at the regional community receptors are below Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objectives in the Project Case. In the Project Case the 98th percentile 24-hour PM2.5 concentrations at regional community receptors were below the Canada Wide Standard of 30 µg/m3 PM2.5.

Predicted concentrations of selected TRS, VOC, PAH compounds and trace metals at community receptors are below available criteria in the Project Case. The possible effects of changes in ground-level concentrations of these compounds are evaluated in the Environmental Health assessment.

POTENTIAL ACID INPUT

Predictions of Potential Acid Input (PAI) included background PAI values determined by Alberta Environment (Cheng 2001). In the EAC, predicted PAI levels over the two Clean Air Strategic Alliance (CASA) 1° by 1° grid cells covering most of the open pit mining operations in the region exceeds the critical load for sensitive ecosystems of 0.25 keq/ha/yr. For the remaining 18 CASA grid cells in the modelling domain, PAI estimates are below the monitoring load of 0.17 keq/ha/year.

Emissions from the project are predicted to increase PAI levels. However, no additional CASA grid cells, beyond the two in the EAC, are predicted to be above 0.25 keq/ha/yr. Predicted PAI levels are below the 0.17 keq/ha/yr monitoring loads for the remaining 18 grid cells in the modelling domain.



3.4.3

3.4.4

3.4.5

3.4.6

3.4.7

OZONE

Ground-level ozone in the oil sands region appears to have a number of causes, including photochemical ozone formation. Modelling completed by WBEA suggested that increased anthropogenic NOX emissions could increase peak ozone levels. Based on the WBEA modelling, the project is likely to increase the NOX emissions by 11 percent over the EAC, which could mean an increase of 3 ppb in peak ozone levels. However, a review of the historic NOX emissions in the region and peak ozone concentrations in Fort McMurray shows that the WBEA modelling may have overstated the effect of increasing NOX emissions on peak ozone concentrations in the region.

ODOURS

The CALPUFF model predictions indicate that there is a potential for emissions from the project to increase the number of hours when peak odour levels might be detected at several of the community receptors. These peak odour levels occur only briefly. The effects of detectable odours are highly subjective. Therefore, individuals may have a higher or lower likelihood of detecting odours than predicted by the model.

COMPLIANCE WITH EMISSION GUIDELINES

The project has incorporated compliance with the relevant provincial and federal emissions guidelines into the design of the process and selection of equipment.

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

The construction, decommissioning and operation of the project will lead to an incremental increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions both nationally and in Alberta. For three train operations, the average annual GHG emissions from the project will contribute approximately 0.51 percent of the latest 2002 national GHG emissions and 1.7 percent of the Alberta emissions. The Kearl project GHG intensity is within the range of intensities specified in approvals for other oil sands developments.

MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING

Imperial Oil plans to undertake the following initiatives to manage and minimize air emissions from the Kearl project:

• select and use a low temperature bitumen extraction process to minimize energy consumption and reduce emissions

• design boilers and cogeneration units to minimize emissions such as NOX through compliance with current CCME guidelines “National Emissions Guideline for Stationary Combustion Turbines” and “National Emissions Guideline for Commercial/Industrial Boilers and Heaters”


Subsection 3.4: Air Quality

• install vapour recovery systems on appropriate tankage to comply with EUB Guide 60

• install a tailings solvent recovery system unit (TSRU) to increase recovery of residual solvent from the froth treatment tailings stream; once three train operation is achieved, solvent loss will be at or below 4 barrels per 1000 barrels of bitumen

• design and operate the plant emergency relief and flare system to comply with EUB Guide 60, to ensure there is no continuous flaring and to ensure that flares operate at high efficiency

• manage fugitive emissions through a program aligned with many of the objectives and strategies in the CCME “Environmental Code of practice for the Measurement and Control of Fugitive Emissions from Equipment Leaks”

• purchase mine fleet vehicles that meet regulatory requirements in effect at the time of purchase

• perform regular maintenance on mine fleet vehicles to retain performance

• use diesel fuel in the mine fleet vehicles that has a sulphur content meeting regulatory requirements

• optimize ore loading on haul trucks to maximize efficiency

• optimize mine haul routes to minimize fuel consumption

• apply water to mine haul routes during dry periods to manage dust ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.5: Noise 3.5 Noise

3.5.1

3.5.2

LOCAL NOISE LEVELS AND NOISE AT DWELLINGS

Negligible impacts from noise were predicted for Fort McKay. However, low magnitude effects were predicted for three hunter–trapper cabins. While changes in noise levels might be noticeable to the occupants of the cabins, the overall noise levels met EUB criteria. The amount of change expected (3 to 4 dBA) is considered to be small since most people will only just start to notice a change at a 3 dBA increment. Since EUB criteria are met and the amount of change is relatively small, the effects of noise from the project on receivers are considered to be of low consequence.

AIR TRAFFIC NOISE LEVELS

The effect that the airstrip associated with the project could have on noise levels locally and at nearby dwellings was assessed. Negligible consequences were predicted for the key receivers. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.6: Water 3.6 WATER

3.6.1 INTRODUCTION

The water components provide an integrated assessment of potential effects of the project on the aquatic environment. The TOR requires the assessment of water-related changes associated with the project in relation to groundwater flow, levels and quality, surface water flow and quality, and fish and fish habitat.

The project development area is located in the following watersheds (see Figure 3-5):

• upper reaches of the Muskeg River including lowland drainage areas of Kearl Lake, Wapasu Creek and unnamed tributaries

• a short reach of the Firebag River associated with headwater drainage areas of three unnamed tributaries just north of external tailings area (ETA)

The mining areas, plant site and the southern portion of the ETA fall within the Muskeg River watershed. The remaining northern portion of the ETA and the potential water storage area lie in the Firebag River watershed.

To facilitate mining and safeguard water quality of the watercourses passing through the PDA, a series of staged diversions are planned for the upper reaches of the Muskeg River and tributaries as described in the Water Management Plan. An extension of Kearl Lake is proposed to compensate for fish habitat lost during these staged watercourse diversions as described in the Conceptual Compensation Plan.

The closure landscape consists of engineered wetlands draining reclaimed pits into a series of pit lakes (see Figure 3-6). An integrated closure landscape for the Muskeg River basin illustrates how drainage is coordinated with adjacent developments (see Figure 3-7).

An Aquatics Study Area (ASA) was defined for assessing surface water quantity, water quality and fish and fish habitat (see Figure 3-8). A LSA and a RSA were defined for the groundwater assessment. For the locations or nodes at which model results are reported, see Figure 3-9.

The water section of the EIA has been subdivided into four components:

• Groundwater

• Surface Water Quantity

• Surface Water Quality

• Fish and Fish Habitat



Figure 3-5: Muskeg River Watershed Boundaries – Kearl Project


July 200

5 Page 3-23 VOLUME 4

Figure 3-6: Closure Drainage Plan – Kearl Project

Subsection 3.6: Water

EIA Summary

July 2005 VOLUME 4

Figure 3-7: Integrated Closure Drainage Plan – Muskeg River Watershed

Section 3:

Page 3-24

Subsection 3.6: Water

Figure 3-8: Groundwater and Aquatics Study Areas



Figure 3-9: Aquatics Assessment Nodes


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.7: Groundwater 3.7 Groundwater

3.7.1

3.7.2

GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND FLOWS

Basal Aquifer depressurization at the project will cause drawdown within that deep aquifer but will not affect the water balance of surface water resources.

Groundwater drawdown in surficial deposits from overburden dewatering is expected to spread about one to four kilometres from the mine pit limits. Pleistocene Channel Aquifer (PCA) dewatering will be required for mine pit development to reduce groundwater levels below the mine walls. Mine pit development will induce small groundwater inflows to the mine pits.

Far-future groundwater levels for surficial deposits and for the Basal Aquifer are expected to be similar to pre-development conditions.

GROUNDWATER QUALITY

Engineering controls and environmental protection measures will be designed to minimize the potential for changes to groundwater quality due to plant operation. A groundwater monitoring system will be used to detect changes to groundwater quality due to plant operation.

Substance transport modelling was undertaken to estimate the rate and extent of process-affected seepage migration from the ETA and reclaimed deposits. Seepage from the ETA is predicted to migrate north and northwest, in the directions of natural groundwater flow. Seepage would migrate upward from the mine-pit backfill into the reclaimed materials, where a component of upward flow exists.

The relevance of seepage migration on surface water resources is quantitatively evaluated in the Surface Water Quality and the Fish and Fish Habitat components.

After 20 years, only the most conservative substances in seepage waters from the ETA would have reached the groundwater near the Firebag River. After 100 years of migration from the ETA, the concentration of these most conservative substances in seepage is predicted to have only reached about 1/2 of its source concentration near the Firebag River.

Very little lateral migration of seepage is expected from the reclaimed pits. The majority of seepage expressed from backfilled material is predicted to reach engineered wetlands on the reclaimed surfaces and then through pit lakes. A smaller portion will reach the Basal Aquifer. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.8: Surface Water Quantity 3.8 Surface water quantity

3.8.1 FLOWS, WATER LEVELS AND OPEN WATER AREAS

The cumulative hydrologic assessment completed for the project included considerations of flows and levels in receiving watercourses and open-water areas.

3.8.1.1 Flows and Water Levels

The predicted changes in flows and water levels in the receiving watercourses and waterbodies for the EAC and the Project Case are summarized below.

Muskeg River and its Tributaries

Oil sands developments will have an effect on flows in the Muskeg River and some of its tributaries from activities such as muskeg drainage and overburden dewatering during construction, water recycling in closed-circuit areas during operations, and reclaiming of mined areas during closure. The effects on flows and water levels in the Muskeg River and its tributaries were assessed at four nodes (see Figure 3-9).

Flows on the upper reach of Muskeg River (Node M1) will not be affected by existing and approved mine developments. The mean annual flow at Node M1 will increase in 2007 due to dewatering flows from the project. A reduction in drainage area due to closed-circuit operations will reduce the mean annual flow to a minimum in 2044. In the far-future, when the development areas will have been reclaimed, the mean annual flow is expected to be about 22 percent less than the pre-development flows.

Under EAC conditions, the mean annual flow at the Muskeg River mouth (Node M3) is expected to increase slightly due to dewatering of muskeg and overburden in 2007, decrease slightly because of closed-circuit operations in 2044, and increase to close to pre-development flows in the far-future. The project would have an incremental influence on these flow changes for the same reasons during these same periods. In the far-future, when all development areas will have been reclaimed, the mean annual flow is predicted to be only about 1.5 percent less than pre-development flow.

After a slight reduction of the pre-development mean annual flows in Wapasu Creek at Node W1 in the EAC, the project will approximately double the flow due to muskeg drainage and overburden dewatering in year 2044. At closure, the mean annual flow will return to pre-development values.

Flows at the mouth of an unnamed creek (Node N1) draining a small pond into the Muskeg River will be affected by the project during mine operation. The flows in the unnamed creek will increase by between 100 and 300 percent for the 2044, 2065 and far-future time snapshots. Such flow increases are due to the



proposed plan to use the unnamed creek as a channel for conveying muskeg drainage and overburden dewatering flows from the PDA during operations and then from a pit lake at closure. To accommodate the increased flows, the width of the stream channel will be enlarged to increase its conveyance capacity.

The effects of the project on the flows in the Muskeg River and its tributaries will be reduced using the following design measures:

• scheduling and managing muskeg drainage and overburden dewatering operations throughout the mine life to avoid large increases in flows

• diverting the natural streams that will not be disturbed by the mining operations around the mining area and back to the receiving watercourses downstream of the development areas

• potentially using water from the Athabasca River to supplement flows in the Muskeg River as required

The continuation of the existing network of flow and water level monitoring stations will be continued throughout the life of the project including the reclamation management period. Mitigation measures may be modified and incorporated into the project’s adaptive management plan to manage future changes in flows and water levels.

Kearl Lake

The drainage area contributing runoff to Kearl Lake will be affected as a result of the Aurora South Mine and the Kearl project. The drainage areas will decrease in 2044 due to closed-circuit operations from both developments and increase in 2065 and far-future due to increased contributing drainage area primarily from the Aurora South development. In addition, an extension of the lake is being proposed for fish habitat compensation for the project.

Kearl Lake water levels will change by less than 0.04 m in the Project Case snapshots under any season compared to pre-development levels. The pre-development mean annual discharge from Kearl Lake decreases by 2044 in the EAC due to closed-circuit operations and then increases beyond pre-development flows in the far-future. The addition of the project will not appreciably affect these predicted changes.

A Kearl Lake extension is being proposed to compensate for the loss of stream habitat due to project activities. This extension would be filled during its development without negatively affecting the Kearl Lake water balance.

Firebag River Reach

Part of the ETA will be located within the Firebag River basin, but the percentage of the basin that will be affected by the project is less than 0.3 percent of the


Subsection 3.8: Surface Water Quantity

drainage area at Node F2. Therefore the change to the mean annual flow of the river is expected to be less than 0.2 percent.

Athabasca River

The net water allocation for existing and approved oil sands developments is about 65 percent of the total allocation for the Athabasca River basin and about 1.7 percent of the mean annual recorded river flows below Fort McMurray. In the EAC, a maximum reduction of 2.4 percent in the pre-development mean annual flow is predicted by 2020 at Node S24. The maximum reduction in the pre-development 7Q10 low flow is expected to be about 13.3 percent at the same time snapshot. In the far-future snapshot, the existing and approved oil sands development areas will have been reclaimed and the reduction in mean annual flow will be about one percent due primarily to other licensed water withdrawals. The reduction in the 7Q10 flow will be about 5.6 percent due to the non-oil sands water users.

In the Project Case, a cumulative maximum reduction of 2.8 percent in the pre-development mean annual flow is predicted by 2023 at Node S24. The cumulative maximum reduction in the pre-development 7Q10 low flow is expected to be about 15.7 percent at the same time snapshot. In the far-future snapshot, the oil sands developments will have been reclaimed and the mean annual and 7Q10 flows in the far-future will be nearly the same under the Project Case and the EAC.

To reduce the effects of the project on low flows in the Athabasca River the following measures are planned:

• recycling of water within the PDA

• provision of storage capacity for make-up water for a 30-day period

• provision of a contingency water storage area if the in-stream flow needs necessitate greater than a 30-day storage capacity

3.8.1.2 Open-Water Areas

During operation, in 2044 the project will cause an increase in the total open-water area within the Muskeg River basin by about 0.3 km2 over the EAC. At closure, the project will increase in the total open-water area within the Muskeg River basin by 29.1 km2 over the EAC. The total Project Case open-water area is projected to be 73.6 km2 (3.8 percent of the total area of the Muskeg River basin) compared to the pre-development open-water area of 13.9 km2 (2 percent of the total area of the Muskeg river basin).

3.8.2 SEDIMENT YIELDS, CONCENTRATIONS AND CHANNEL REGIMES

Existing and approved developments and the project will result in small effects on basin sediment yield and negligible increases in the TSS concentrations in the



receiving watercourses. Marginal changes in the channel regimes of receiving watercourses are expected since the developments will result in a reduction of flood flows.

Imperial Oil’s water management plan includes mitigation measures such as management of closed-circuit operations and routing of discharges with sediment through polishing ponds.

3.8.3 CLOSURE DRAINAGE SUSTAINABILITY

The closure landscape and drainage systems of the project have been designed to achieve surface sediment yield characteristics similar to natural landscapes and channel erosion rates similar to natural drainage channels. Shallow wetlands and the pit lakes will help attenuate flood peak discharges to the downstream channels and minimize flow velocities and channel erosion. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.9: Surface Water Quality 3.9 surface water quality

3.9.1 WATER QUALITY SUBSTANCE CONCENTRATIONS

The potential effects of the Kearl project activities on increases in substance concentrations or changes in the frequency of meeting guideline values for aquatic life were assessed. The assessment focused on evaluating the predicted changes in water quality relative to regulatory guidelines for receiving waters for existing and approved developments, the Kearl project and potential developments. The watercourses and waterbodies assessed included the Athabasca and Muskeg rivers, a portion of the Firebag River downstream of the ETA, Wapasu Creek, unnamed tributaries of the Muskeg and Firebag rivers, and Kearl Lake.

3.9.1.1 Athabasca and Firebag Rivers

Measured background water quality concentrations under pre-development conditions (i.e., prior to development) indicate that aquatic guideline values are exceeded for many substances in the Athabasca River and the Firebag River reach downstream of the external tailings area (ETA). The high background substance concentrations that typically occur during spring and summer are mainly due to natural watershed substance contributions upstream of the oil sands region. Existing and approved developments and the project will not increase the concentration of these substances or other key substances, such as acute and chronic toxicity, naphthenic acids, total dissolved solids and tainting potential. Seepage from the ETA will not result in appreciable changes in substance concentrations in the Firebag River reach downstream of the ETA or the associated Firebag River tributaries north of the ETA.

3.9.1.2 Muskeg River

The Kearl project does not appreciably increase concentrations of key parameters, such as naphthenic acids, TDS, acute and chronic toxicity and tainting potential above those predicted for the EAC. Project activities are predicted to result in increased concentrations for boron, molybdenum, sulphate, antimony, selenium and vanadium after closure, but these concentrations decrease in the far-future. The effects of the predicted substance concentrations on human, wildlife and aquatic health are assessed and result in negligible to low environmental consequences.

3.9.1.3 Wapasu Creek and the Unnamed Tributary of the Muskeg River

The Kearl project has negligible effects on acute and chronic toxicity, naphthenic acids and tainting potential. The effects of the predicted substance concentrations on human, wildlife and aquatic health are assessed and result in negligible to low environmental consequences.



3.9.1.4 Kearl Lake

A very small volume of seepage from the project’s reclaimed mine pits is predicted to marginally increase concentrations of some substances in the far-future. The effects of these small increases on human, wildlife and aquatic health were determined to be negligible.

3.9.2

3.9.3

3.9.4

3.9.5

3.9.6

THERMAL REGIME

Muskeg drainage and overburden dewatering flows to polishing ponds will typically attain thermal equilibrium and achieve temperatures similar to ambient receiving water temperatures. In rare cases, pond temperatures may exceed receiving water temperatures; however, the most extreme cases will not increase river temperatures by more than 1°C, with negligible effects on receiving waters. Releases from pit lakes will be from surface layers of the lakes and should have similar temperatures as receiving waters in the regional area.

DISSOLVED OXYGEN

Muskeg drainage and overburden dewatering flows from the project are not expected to affect dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in receiving waters. Data obtained from the Albian and Syncrude polishing ponds suggest that oxygen-consuming substances are reduced to background levels observed in the Muskeg River. These data also confirm that DO concentrations in pond waters are often higher than background levels for the small receiving watercourses, particularly during winter.

PAH AND METALS LEVELS IN SEDIMENTS

The project will not change PAH concentrations in sediment of receiving waters, since PAHs have limited pathways through which to travel and enter surface waters or bottom sediments. The predicted effects of the project on metal concentrations in sediments of receiving watercourses will be negligible.

ACIDIFICATION

The project is not predicted to have an effect on potential acidification of lakes or watercourses in the oil sands region.

PIT LAKES

Pit lake water quality will be non-toxic before the lakes start discharging to receiving waters. Substance concentrations in the pit lakes and their outflows are expected to decrease with time. Concentrations of substances in the far-future are predicted to reach equilibrium levels that are similar to or approach pre-development levels for watercourses and waterbodies within the ASA. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.10: Fish and Fish Habitat 3.10 fish and fish habitat

3.10.1

3.10.2

FISH HABITAT

Changes in the landscape and drainage patterns in the PDA will result in losses in habitat area in some aquatic resources. The existing habitats to be lost have limited suitability for use by fish and are used primarily by a small number of forage fish species, with a small amount of use by sucker species. There are no sensitive or otherwise listed species in the PDA.

The project includes a proposed Conceptual Compensation Plan (CCP) designed to provide new area to offset losses in habitat quantity in the PDA. The CCP proposes that compensation habitat be provided by extending Kearl Lake. The extension of Kearl Lake is designed to meet the requirement of no net loss of fish habitat by increasing the size of the lake, providing new area, providing deeper-water habitat not currently available in the PDA, and providing a greater amount of productive habitat than that which will be lost.

Based on the CCP objective to achieve no net loss of fish habitat, it was concluded that the Kearl project will not result in a net reduction in productive habitat and that there would be no adverse residual effects due to changes in habitat area.

Flow augmentation may be necessary to minimize changes in flows in the Muskeg River during project operations. Predicted reductions in open-water flows in the far-future due to the project were considered a low level residual effect on fish habitat with low environmental consequences. Appreciable increases in flows predicted during the winter period were expected to result in an improvement in overwintering habitat throughout the Muskeg River. Predicted short-term increases in flows in Wapasu Creek are expected to result in improved habitat conditions. Predicted flow increases in the unnamed tributary to the Muskeg River were considered to have no residual adverse effects on fish habitat.

Possible habitat changes in the Athabasca River due to cumulative water withdrawals were considered to be negligible during the open-water period. The results of the on-going CEMA in-stream flow needs study will identify if the predicted winter flow reductions will affect overwintering habitats. To mitigate potential effects, Imperial Oil will adhere to the Athabasca River Instream Flow Needs (IFN) requirements that will be established by Alberta Environment.

FISH ABUNDANCE

The assessment did not identify potential adverse effects on fish abundance resulting from the Kearl project. Fish habitat compensation for changes in area is predicted to result in a net increase in productive habitat and a potential increase in fish abundance. Potential fish losses from the Athabasca River at the intake site



will be mitigated by complying with all provincial and federal screening criteria and guidelines for fish exclusion and screen velocities.

3.10.3

3.10.4

FISH AND FISH HABITAT DIVERSITY

The overall conclusion regarding potential effects of the project on the diversity of fish species and fish habitats was that effects would be negligible. Although the project includes changes in habitat area that will result in losses of certain low-quality habitat types, an overall increase in fish abundance, fish species diversity and ecosystem diversity are expected as a result of habitat compensation provided by the CCP.

A residual effect on the diversity of benthic invertebrate communities was predicted, based on the expected differences in habitat types between existing conditions and the closure landscape. The magnitude and environmental consequence of this residual effect were classified as low.

MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING

Key management and monitoring activities related to fish and fish habitat are described below.

• Imperial Oil participates in RAMP, CEMA, CONRAD and other regional initiatives concerned with on-going research, development and aquatic monitoring in the oil sands region.

• Imperial Oil plans to develop a program to monitor and confirm the establishment of fish habitats and fish populations in the proposed compensation lake in conjunction with the detailed no net loss plan that will be developed. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.11: Land 3.11 LAND

3.11.1 LAND INTRODUCTION

The land components provide an integrated assessment of potential effects of the project to the terrestrial environment. The TOR requires the assessment of land-related changes associated with the Kearl project in relation to soils and terrain, vegetation and wildlife.

These three disciplines are intricately linked at the ecological level. Vegetation communities are dependent on specific nutrient and moisture regimes, and in turn, influence long-term soil development processes. Combinations of topographic position, soil and nutrient moisture regimes, and vegetation communities represent the ecological units that influence the distributions and diversity of wildlife species. Consequently, the EIAs for the three disciplines are also closely linked. For example, predicted effects of project development and closure on soils has been factored into and reflected in the assessment of effects on vegetation. Similarly, predicted changes in wildlife distributions and diversity were developed based on predicted changes in vegetation.

The land section of the EIA has been subdivided into three components:

• Soils and Terrain

• Vegetation

• Wildlife

For the delineation of the LSAs and RSAs for the Land components, see Figure 3-10. ♦



Figure 3-10: Land LSAs and RSAs


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.12: Soils and Terrain 3.12 Soils and Terrain

3.12.1 TOPOGRAPHIC DIVERS

he reclaimed landscape will have fewer level organic areas and fewer areas with steeper slopes (greater than nine percent). Instead, reclamation will introduce an additional 9056 ha of slopes in the 0.5 to 9 percent range. A total of 2055 ha of new open-water acreage will result in the permanent loss of terrain. This will be offset by the replacement of 9898 ha of Class 1 (0 to 0.5 percent) slopes with areas containing more topographic variation. These areas will increase overall topographic diversity in the LSA.

3.12.2 SOIL SERIES DIVERSITY

Natural soils will remain in about 24 percent of the LSA after reclamation. The majority of bogs and fens will be displaced and in some cases will be replaced by marshes. While the extent of most soil units in the LSA is reduced by at least 70 percent, they are all well represented in the RSA even if all potential developments occur. The landscape will be reconstructed with soils prescriptions that will provide a range of soil properties to support a range of vegetation communities. Soil diversity will therefore be maintained close to predisturbance conditions.

3.12.3 EDAPHIC DIVERSITY

After reclamation and closure, the LSA will support an additional 5190 ha of moist upland soils and 1203 ha of additional transitional Gleysols, relative to Existing and Approved Case conditions. Dry, sandy soils will be reduced by 147 ha, and wetter organic soils will be reduced by 9696 ha.

Because of the large area of reconstructed upland soils with peat–mineral cover soil, the area of soils with a medium nutrient regime will increase by 3893 ha. Soils with poor nutrient regimes, mainly sandy Brunisols and nutrient-poor bog soils, will be reduced by 7343 ha.

3.12.4 LAND CAPABILITY

In the LSA, the area of productive land for forestry will increase by 48 percent. As a result, there is a positive effect on land capability for forestry following reclamation of the project.

3.12.5 AIR EMISSIONS AND SOIL SERIES

PAI critical loads were exceeded in an additional 3036 ha, or 0.3 percent of the RSA for the Project Case. Therefore, a small negative effect on soils in the RSA will result from acidifying emissions under the Project Case. ♦

ITY

T


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.13: Vegetation 3.13 Vegetation

3.13.1

re

y

ociated with the project on landscape diversity ental consequence.

3.13.2 COMM

r

t, effects may persist into the far-future. To be conservative, project gional scale were assigned a moderate environmental

sa–this

ity in the RSA and is considered to be of high environmental consequence. Although there is no

e

), which is considered rare, is under review. not meant to imply environmental importance at a broader or geographic area. The rating is meant to identify to regional

versity and as such, follow-up work is al surveys in the spring and summer of 2005 that will

more thoroughly investigate the occurrence and distribution of the rare plant

nity complex, the project may indirectly affect a very small part (one percent) as a result of surficial

roundwater drawdown in the snapshot year 2041. Indirect effects on the special

LANDSCAPE DIVERSITY

The project will result in a slight increase in mean upland patch area and edge length variance. This is attributed to the re-establishment of relatively large upland patches with simplistic edges in the reclaimed landscape. In addition, thewill be a slight decrease in linear disturbance densities for the project at closure. When examined statistically, project effects associated with landscape diversitdisplay no measurable difference between the EAC and the Project Case at closure. For this reason, effects asswere assigned a low environm

UNITY DIVERSITY

Assessment results show that for upland ecosite phases, wetlands classes, nonvegetated land and structural stage distribution, the area and distribution ofthese community classes or features will be altered, but diversity will not be lost at the local and regional scale. Vegetation cover classes will also be altered at the regional scale; however, community diversity was not lost. As technology for there-establishment of specific ecosite phases and wetlands classes is currently undedevelopmeneffects at the reconsequence.

The project is predicted to directly affect the rare plant community Carex limoMenyanthes trifoliata–Cardamine pratensis. Based on available data, loss of rare plant community also represents a potential loss of divers

current documentation of this rare plant community elsewhere in the RSA, this type of open fen is likely more common in the area. In addition, two of the threspecies that make up the community are not considered rare, and the status of thethird species (Cardamine pratensisThe rating is jurisdictionalresource managers new community diversity issues that may need to be tracked and managed through existing cooperative resource management initiatives.

Imperial recognizes the importance of diunderway including addition

community.

For the special plant community, lenticular patterned fen commu

g



plant community are not expected to persist at closure. As a result, a low environmental consequence was assigned.

3.13.3 SPECIES DIVERSITY

Ninety-three species were recorded only within the project footprint in the LSA. Therefore, at the LSA level, the project will likely result in a loss of diversity, i.e., high-magnitude effect. Based on a review of species data available for the larger RSA, one rare vascular species and four rare bryophyte species of the 93 total species have been recorded only within the project footprint. Therefore, based on available information, the project is predicted to result in a loss of species diversity into the far-future in the RSA. By definition, this project effect is rated as a high environmental consequence.

The rating is not meant to imply environmental importance at a broader jurisdictional or geographic area. The rating is meant to identify to regional resource managers new species diversity issues that may need to be tracked and managed through existing cooperative resource management initiatives. Additional surveys in the spring and summer of 2005 will more thoroughly investigate the occurrence and distribution of the five species of concern. Imperial Oil recognizes the importance of biodiversity and when avoidance is not practical, alternate mitigation strategies will be developed.

The implementation of a weed-management program will result in an associated negligible project-related effect on native species diversity in the LSA from the introduction of non-native and invasive species, i.e., low environmental consequence.

3.13.4 AIR EMISSIONS AND LANDSCAPE DIVERSITY

The project will result in a slight increase in area (one percent) of sensitive cover classes that are exposed to critical levels for SO2 annual concentrations. However as all sensitive cover classes are well represented in the RSA and the area predicted to be affected is small (7 ha added from the project), project effects are considered to be of low environmental consequence.

No sensitive cover classes in the RSA will be entirely exposed to critical levels of NO2, and no loss of community diversity is expected in the RSA. In the RSA, project effects are considered to be of moderate environmental consequence.

Project contributions to cumulative nitrogen deposition are predicted to have a moderate effect on vegetation health and diversity, with effects predicted to persist into the far-future. However, no sensitive cover classes in the RSA will be entirely exposed to critical loads of nitrogen deposition, and no loss of community diversity is expected in the RSA. Therefore, project effects are considered to be of moderate environmental consequence.


Subsection 3.13: Vegetation

3.13.5 MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING

o participate in the development of reclamation technology

to conduct progressive reclamation and has included ongoing

Imperial Oil plans tthat facilitates increase in species, community and landscape diversity through regional committees focused on development of diversity and reclamation. Imperial Oil also participates in regional committees that manage and monitor the effects of air emissions of soils and vegetation, including:

• NOx–SO2 Management Working Group (NSMWG)

• Terrestrial Environment Effects Monitoring (TEEM) through the Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA)

Imperial Oil plans reclamation as part of the Closure, Conservation and Reclamation Plan. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.14: Wildlife 3.14 Wildlife

3.14.1 SPECI

t

e). These increases lakes, and from pecies range from a

red Change in habitat availability because of the project was predicted to be of moderate magnitude, and expected

The nine species predicted to experience habitat reductions at the local level were reassessed at the regional level, i.e., in the RSA, to better evaluate effects in a regional cumulative context. This regional assessment indicated that regional reductions in habitat availability because of the project would range from 0.2 percent (for pileated woodpecker) to 1.4 percent (for black bear). These habitat reductions attributable to the Kearl project represent 5.1 to 9.6 percent of the cumulative habitat reductions in the RSA from all existing, approved and potential projects.

The mortality assessment concluded that project-related mortalities, with appropriate mitigation in place, would not represent a threat to the local sustainability of any species or to regional wildlife diversity.

The wildlife health assessment concluded that the magnitude of project effects on wildlife health is negligible for all parameters in air, soil, water, and food and fish vectors for all mammal and bird receptors. Based on these findings, the project will have moderate-magnitude, far-future effects on species distributions that will be measurable at even the RSA level. However, no loss of species diversity in the RSA is anticipated. Therefore, by definition, these effects are considered to be of moderate environmental consequence.

3.14.2 COMMUNITY DIVERSITY

Most wildlife KIR communities were predicted to experience considerable reductions in areal extent in the LSA because of the project. Changes ranged from an increase of 376 percent for the g1 upland community (because of natural succession from wooded swamps and fens from water drawdown) during the 2041 snapshot to a reduction of 81 percent for the wooded swamp wetland community at 2041. Based on these reductions, the magnitude of change in abundance of communities with high wildlife diversity because of the project is predicted to be moderate, as the abundance and distribution of these communities

ES DIVERSITY

The project will reduce habitat availability for some species, and increase habitaavailability for others. Habitat availability is predicted to increase for beaver and waterfowl for the Project Case (2041) and for Canadian toad, beaver, moose, black bear and waterfowl for the Project Case (Post-Closurresult from the phased establishment of wetlands and pit reclamation of upland habitats. Habitat losses for other s15.6-percent reduction for snowshoe hare at post-closure to a 55.8-percent

uction for pileated woodpecker at post-closure.

to persist into the far-future.



will be altered, but overall community-level diversity will not be reduced at the LSA level.

Because of the predicted moderate-magnitude and far-future extent of change at the local level, these KIRs were reassessed at the regional level, i.e., in the RSA, to better evaluate effects in a regional cumulative context. The 11 communities assessed in the LSA were grouped into four broad vegetation cover classes for assessment in the RSA. The regional reduction in areal extent for each of these communities was less than 1.5 percent, ranging from 0.18 percent to 1.3 percent, in the RSA because of the project. The project’s contribution to cumulative reductions in these communities ranged from 6 percent to 11.5 percent.

Based on these findings, the project will have moderate-magnitude, far-future effects on community distributions that will be measurable even at the RSA level. However, no loss of community diversity in the RSA is anticipated. Therefore, by definition, these effects are considered to be of moderate environmental consequence.

3.14.3 LANDSCAPE FUNCTION

Based on Linkage Zone Hazard (LZH) modelling, areas of minimal, low, moderate and high hazard were identified for moose and black bear. These species are considered to be landscape-level species because of their movement requirements. The LZH model describes the functional connectivity of the landscape through the distribution of hazard classes.

Areas of minimum to low hazard were the focus of the assessment, as these areas provide the greatest potential for wildlife to move relatively unimpeded across the landscape. The extent of minimum to low hazard zones in the RSA are predicted to be reduced by 1.1 percent for moose and by 1.6 percent for black bear because of the project.

Based on these findings, the project will have moderate-magnitude, long-term effects on landscape function, i.e., connectivity, which will be measurable at the RSA level. However, no loss of landscape function in the RSA is expected. Therefore, by definition, these effects are considered to be of moderate environmental consequence.


All management and monitoring programs will be developed in consultation with regulators and local stakeholders, and will be consistent with regional initiatives such as CEMA and provincial programs such as the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program.

Imperial Oil plans to conduct progressive reclamation, and has included ongoing reclamation as part of the Closure, Conservation and Reclamation Plan. Within


Subsection 3.14: Wildlife

the first 10 years of operation, Imperial Oil will have the opportunity to examine arious reclamation technologies on tailings dikes and overburden

plans include observing wildlife use of these reclaimed

the success of vdisposal areas. Monitoring habitats, and assessment of structural diversity of reclaimed communities.

Integrated reclamation monitoring will document reclamation success and allow for adaptive management of procedures that are suitable to wildlife species andsite conditions. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.15: Environmental Health 3.15 Environmental Health

3.15.1 ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH INTRODUCTION

The Environmental Health component of the EIA presents an assessment of the potential effects of chemical emissions on the health of people, wildlife and aquatic life in the vicinity of the Kearl project. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.16: Human Health 3.16 Human Health

3.16.1

an ombined exposure to all

chemicals in air, water, soil, plants, fish and animals.

3.16.2 SHORT-TERM EFFECTS

Short-term effects to human health were predicted to be negligible for all chemicals in air at all locations for the Project Case.

Short-term combined exposure effects to human health from acrolein exposures were predicted to be negligible to low for Fort McKay, the hunter-trapper cabins and the worker camp for the Project Case, and negligible for all other locations. Many layers of safety have been included in the assessment and the actual risk posed by short-term exposure to acroleins is likely negligible for all locations.

Short-term effects to human health were predicted to be negligible for all other chemicals in air at all locations for the Project Case.

3.16.3 PARTICULATE MATTER

Human health effects as a result of particulate matter exposure were predicted to be negligible for the Project Case.

3.16.4 RECLAMATION WATERBODIES AND WATERCOURSES

Human health effects were predicted to be negligible for exposures to water from Wapasu Creek, the Muskeg River (and fish), Kearl Lake, the portion of the Firebag River associated with the three tributaries north of the ETA, the Athabasca River and the pit lakes - at closure and in the far-future for the Project Case.


Many regional committees are addressing human health issues in the oil sands region. Imperial Oil participates in the following regional monitoring programs, which collect air and water quality information that can be used to assess potential human health risks:

• Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA), which conducts ambient air monitoring in regional communities

• Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP), which monitors water quality and fish

LONG-TERM EFFECTS

Long-term effects to human health were predicted to be negligible for all chemicals in air at all locations for the Project Case. Long-term effects to humhealth were also predicted to be negligible for the c



The following regional committees also address human health issues in the oil sands region:

• Human Exposure Monitoring Committee (HEMC), which is a subcommittee of WBEA.

• Trace Metal and Air Contaminant Work Group (TMAC), which is a subcommittee of the CEMA.

Acroleins were conservatively identified as a group of substances that potentially could result in low magnitude long-term and short-term effects to human health in some locations for the EAC and Project Case. However, there is uncertainty in the air quality predictions for acroleins due to lack of measured data from oil sands emission sources for model validation. Imperial Oil is working with two of the oil sands operators to investigate ambient acrolein emissions by conducting monitoring at existing oil sands operations. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.17: Wildlife Health 3.17 Wildlife Health

3.17.1

3.17.2 RECLAMATION WATERBODIES

Wildlife health effects were predicted to be negligible for exposures to water from iver

Athabasca River and the pit lakes at closure and in the far-future for the Project Case.

3.17.3 MANA

s under existing ment systems. TMAC has identified a list of chemicals of

concern in the region and has completed air quality modelling studies to further

emical groups identified by TMAC have been r the project. Human health ever, protection of wildlife

LONG-TERM EFFECTS

Long-term effects to wildlife health are predicted to be negligible for all chemicals released by existing and approved developments and the Kearl project to air, water, soil and food.

Wapasu Creek, the Muskeg River, Kearl Lake, the portion of the Firebag Rreach and associated tributaries north of the ETA, the

GEMENT AND MONITORING

Imperial Oil participates in WBEA and RAMP, which collect air and water quality information that can be used to assess potential wildlife health risks.

Imperial Oil also participates in CEMA, including one of its subcommittees, TMAC, which was established in 2000 to assess the risks posed by trace metals and other chemicals in air to human health and ecosystemenvironmental manage

understand ambient concentrations of these chemicals within the oil sands region.The majority of the chemicals or chevaluated in the wildlife health risk assessment foprotection is the primary mandate for TMAC; howhealth is also inferred since people are typically more sensitive than wildlife. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.18: Aquatic Health 3.18 Aquatic Health

3.18.1

load

parisons of predicted chemical concentrations in water and fish tissue to chronic effects benchmarks and whole effluent toxicity

erall, there will be negligible environmental

3.18.2 PIT LA

ecosystem. This conclusion is based on the planned design of the project pit lakes, the assessment

trations and fish tissue quality and the results of field

3.18.3 MANA

ub-

stems.

AQUATIC HEALTH

Acidifying emissions from the project are not predicted to exceed criticalthresholds for acid sensitive lakes; therefore effects from acidification on aquatic health are not expected. Com

guidelines indicate that, ovconsequences to aquatic health in the ASA for Project Case.

KES

Pit lakes are expected to be able to support a viable aquatic

of predicted chemical concenand laboratory research studies.

GEMENT AND MONITORING

Imperial Oil participates in research conducted by the CEMA, End Pit Lake Sgroup. This group investigates reclamation strategies and supports regional monitoring programs to ensure that pit lakes will develop into viable ecosyImperial Oil is also a participant of RAMP.

Imperial Oil plans to monitor pit lakes during their development and to managing the lakes appropriately so that the requisite water quality is achieved by the time they begin to discharge to receiving waters. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.19: People 3.19 People

3.19.1 PEOPLE

• Historical Resources

Socio-Economics

INTRODUCTION

The people components of the EIA provide an integrated assessment of potential effects of the project on resource use, historical resources, socio-economics and traditional land use. The people section of the EIA has been subdivided into four components:

• Resource Use

•

• Traditional Land Use

For the delineation of the People components LSAs and RSAs, see Figure 3-11. ♦



Figure 3-11: People LSAs and RSAs


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.20: Resource Use 3.20 Resource USe

3.20.1

y

3.20.2 AGRICULTURE

ltural operations in the LSA or RSA.

3.20.3 FORESTRY

- ve been working together to develop an ILM strategy ng plans with the clearing requirements for the project.

umes in the mine footprint, but outside Al-Pac’s FMA area, are accounted for and harvested as per ASRD requirements.

Reclamation of the Kearl mine is expected to return the LSA to equivalent land capability for forestry.

3.20.4 HUNTING AND TRAPPING

Following reclamation and closure, there will be a decrease in habitat availability for species of trapping interest (fisher, Canada lynx and snowshoe hare), except for beaver, and an increase in habitat availability for species of hunting interest (moose, black bear and waterfowl).

Opportunities for hunting and trapping in the LSA will gradually return as reclamation of the PDA occurs.

Imperial Oil will compensate trappers for damage to their traplines and loss of fur revenue.

3.20.5 FISHING

Baseline data has not reported evidence of sport fish species in the PDA although habitat in some of these locations could support northern pike.

The proposed Kearl Lake extension, proposed as part of the fish habitat compensation, will result in an overall improvement in aquatic resources and waterfowl habitat in the Kearl Lake ESA.

The Kearl Lake extension is proposed to address the loss of stream habitat. For further details, see the Conceptual Compensation Plan.

AGGREGATE RESOURCES

The project aggregate management plan is to use as much of the required aggregate as possible from deposits in the PDA. The remaining portion will likelbe sourced from other commercial sources.

There are no agricu

Al Pac and Imperial Oil hathat will integrate harvesti

Imperial Oil plans to work with ASRD to ensure that merchantable timber vol



Tainting potential in all waterbodies is predicted to remain below the threshold throughout the life of the project and into the far-future. No fish tainting is predicted to result from the project combined with other existing, approved and potential developments.

3.20.6 DESIGNATED ECOLOGICAL AREAS

The project will result in increased land disturbance in the Kearl Lake Moose and Muskeg River ESAs. Following reclamation in the LSA, there will be an increase in available moose habitat, which is the ecological feature for which the Kearl Lake Moose Area regionally significant ESA was identified. The effects on fish habitat in the Muskeg River ESA will be compensated by the proposed Kearl Lake extension.

3.20.7 RECREATION AND TOURISM

Kearl project construction and mine operations will temporarily affect recreational opportunities in the LSA.

3.20.8 ACCESS

For public safety, Imperial Oil plans to manage access in the LSA during construction and operations. Following closure, all Kearl project access routes will be reclaimed.

Imperial Oil is continuing consultation with First Nations representatives regarding access issues, such as maintaining access to Kearl Lake during the project life.

3.20.9 VISUAL AESTHETICS

Viewshed assessments of steam plume visibility indicated that high visibility occurrences are relatively rare events (10 percent of the year) during which the plume rises to 108 m above the ground.

Emissions from the Kearl project will not cause ground-level fog on local roadways.

Receptor effects assessment scenarios show that project features at closure are not visible from Fort McKay, Clausen’s Landing Provincial Recreation Area or the viewpoint along the Muskeg River. From Kearl Lake, however, the tops of the overburden disposal areas are visible.

Emissions from the project are not expected to result in significant deterioration of visibility in the region as a resu f haze. lt o


Subsection 3.22: Resource Use


tes in regional initiatives, such as RIWG and CEMA. This

perators and stakeholders to develop land management plans for efficient use and conservation of resources.

n the LSA and will

ed portions of the project leases. ♦

Imperial Oil participainvolvement helps Imperial Oil to provide meaningful input into resource management decisions in the region.

Imperial Oil plans to consult with regional ointegrated

Imperial Oil plans to monitor the success of reclamation isupport the development of ecological benchmark areas as a reference for comparison with reclaim


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.21: Historical Resources 3.21 Historical Resources

haeological sites were recorded in the LSA.

cts.

our archaeological sites in the LSA have moderate to high interpretive value. dditional investigation and mitigation before development is recommended for

these sites, including staged excavation. ♦

Historical Resources

As a result of the Kearl project, 16 arcEleven of the 16 sites identified in the LSA are located in proposed mine pits. Theremaining five are outside the development area and will not be affected. These will be completely removed as the result of mining activities.

Of the sites identified in mine pits, seven have low interpretive value based onlimited site extent and sparse artifact assemblages lacking diagnostic artifa

FA


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.22: SEIA 3.22 Socio-Economics

3.22.1 SOCIO CIES AND INITIATIVES

The execution of the Kearl project will include a number of socio-economic

y plane between rotations

d

• overall reduction in potential traffic, especially on Highway 63

• a reduction in potential negative socio-economic effects on Fort McMurray infrastructure and services

• impacts on traditional lands is minimized by phased reclamation, consultation and cooperation with affected trappers, and compensation of affected trapline owners for related impacts

• Imperial Oil is party to the various agreements between oil sands developers and Aboriginal communities

• Imperial Oil is party to the industry initiatives to identify and address regional issues, including the Regional Issues Working Group

3.22.2 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS

The $5.5 billion construction cost of the Kearl project will create 9980 workyears of direct employment in the 2007 to 2018 period. The total direct, indirect and induced employment impacts of the construction of the Kearl project is estimated at 20,800 workyears over the same period. The GDP effect of the construction phase of the Kearl project is estimated at $4.3 billion.

Once fully operational, the Project will require 1200 operations workers. The total direct, indirect and induced employment effect is estimated at 2660 workyears annually. The GDP effect of the operations phase of the Kearl project is estimated at approximately $1 billion per year once all production trains are in operations.

Using an 8% discount rate and in constant 2005 dollars, the Kearl project is expected to pay $1.2 billion in royalties, $400 million in provincial corporate taxes, and $800 million in federal corporate taxes over the life of the project. The

-ECONOMIC PLANS, POLI

plans, policies, and initiatives. The key ones among them are:

• most construction workers will live outside the region, stay near the site in camps during rotations, and commute to and from the site b

• given the remote location of the Kearl site, a camp based operating plan hasbeen selected to allow Imperial Oil to develop a safe, healthy, productive anefficient work environment

• the above two plans provide, among others, the following additional benefits of:



project will also pay municipal property taxes, estimated at $14.5 million per year once all phases of the project are operational.

3.22.3 POPULATION IMPACTS

The population of the urban area of the Wood Buffalo region is expected to grow to 77,020 in 2013 if all projects in the Existing and Approved case proceed. The Kearl project will add an additional 420 people to this population estimate. If all projects assumed in the Potential Development Case proceed, the population of the urban area is expected to reach 93,740 in 2013.

3.22.4 COMMUNITY IMPACTS

The Kearl project will contribute to cumulative impacts of oil sands industry expansion on traditional lands, traffic, housing, social stresses, and infrastructure and service deficits. The use of on-site camps during construction and operations minimizes these impacts. ♦


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.23: Traditional Land Use 3.23 Traditional Land Use

Participants from each of the three Aboriginal communities consulted believe that ,

ies. s that participants

Concerns discussed by the discussion pagroups included:

•

sultation timing, information provision,

wisdom in the EIA, inclusion of youth in EIA consultation, relationships s with

s)

ilities

•

ronment and landcape integrity

• development effects on medicinal plants and trees

human health)

change in the taste of wild game)

existing developments have caused changes in environment and human healthand have precluded their practice of some traditional and resource-use activitIf future development planning occurs as it does now, the effectbelieve to be linked to these developments will be exacerbated.

rticipants from the three Aboriginal

development issues:

• consultation process (concommunication methods, communication of EIA results, use of traditional

between developers and the community, the nature of agreementdevelopers and the role of government in consultation)

• land access management (theft and vandalism, and trapline acces

• compensation (regional projects and trappers’ compensation)

• bulk fuel availability

• placement of project fac

• cumulative effects assessment

• reclamation

landscape-level effects

• alteration of the envi

• “power of place” and “spirit of the land”

• respect for animals (irresponsible hunting practices, noise and animal stress)

• ecosystem health

• water resources (water pollution, water quality, water quantity, and use of appropriate measures for assessing the effects of development)

• air quality (pollution, air-quality monitoring and air-quality effects on

• noise pollution

• pollution effects on wildlife (abundance and presence of wildlife, and



• pollution effects on vegetation (berry crop abundance, and effects on tree growth and vigour

• pollution effects on climate change

uality on human health)

dust near cabins

uring field visits and information shared during the traditional land use workshops, information about traditional uses of four specific areas of the PDA was obtained. These areas include:

• the jackpine ridge on which Canterra road is situated

• Kearl Lake

• the southern Kearl Lake wetlands

• Muskeg River

As a result of the meetings, workshops and field visits, a number of requests, recommendations, and expressions of interest and encouragement was offered by the Aboriginal participants on behalf of their respective communities.

Many of the Aboriginal participants in the traditional land use consultation expressed a wish for their communities to work with industry to ensure that negative development effects are limited to the utmost extent possible.

Imperial Oil has tried to address many of the concerns identified by the Aboriginal participants during the consultation meetings and has documented responses in the traditional use assessments. Imperial Oil has committed to ongoing consultation with the Aboriginal groups and to continue to discuss their concerns about the effects of the project on their traditional pursuits and territories. ♦

• human health and community well-being

• employment

• education

• human health (sickness, lifespan, and water q

• noise and

• cultural continuity(transmission of traditional knowledge, loss of traditional survival skills, and land for future generations)

• psychological and spiritual health

• cultural identity

D


SECTION 3: EIA Summary Subsection 3.24:Bibliography 3.24 Bibliography

3.24.1 LITER

AENV (AlbertAssessmEnviron

AENV (Alberta Environm pact AssessmEnhanc a Environment, Alberta Energy and Utilities Board and the Alberta Natural Resources Conservation Board. Edmonton, AB. 6 pp.

AENV (Alberta En irSustainable DeAppendices.

Cheng, L. 2001. BacRELAD Mode o. May 8, 2001.

FPTCCCEA (Federal- ronmental Assessmen nmental Assessmen G ractitioners. November 2003. 48 pp.

Golder (Golder As c il Sands Cumulative Effects Assessment Framework e Environmental Effects Management Initiative. 177 pp. + Appendices.

Hegmann, G. cts practitioner guide. Prepared by AXYS Environmental Ltd. And the CEA Working Group for the Canadian Environmental Assessmen g

ATURE CITED

a Environment). 2004. Final Terms of Reference Environmental Impact ent (EIA) Report for the Suncor Energy Voyageur Project. Issued by Alberta

ment. December 2004. Edmonton, AB.

ent). 2000. Cumulative Effects Assessment in Environmental Iment Reports Required Under the Alberta Environmental Protection and

ement Act. Albert

v onment). 1999. Technical Support Document for the Regional velopment Strategy for the Athabasca Oil Sands Area. Edmonton, AB. 5

kground PAI for the Oil Sands Region, Determined for 1995 Using the l and all Sources Within the Oil Sands Region Set to Zer

Provincial-Territorial Committee on Climate Change and Envit). 2003. Incorporating Climate Change Considerations in Envirot: eneral Guidance for P

so iates Ltd.). 1999. Athabasca O R port. Prepared for Cumulative

et al. 1999. Cumulative effe

t A ency, Hull, QB. ♦


EIA Glossary

% The symbol for percent. > The symbol for greater than. < The symbol for less than. a annum Aboriginal A person who has full, partial or mixed indigenous native heritage.

This can include people considered to be full status First Nations individuals, as well as those of mixed indigenous heritage or Métis.

A horizon A mineral soil layer formed at or near the soil surface. This horizon forms in the zone of leaching or eluviation of materials in solution or suspension, or of maximum in-situ accumulation of organic matter or both.

abiotic A modifier for nonliving elements, such as climate, geology and soil, that influence an ecosystem.

access corridor A linear area containing roads, power lines, buried pipelines and communication cables to connect a project’s development to existing operations.

access road A temporary or permanent route providing access to a pipeline right-of-way or to a facility that’s not open to the general public.

accident See incident. accidental (vagrant) Any species occurring infrequently and unpredictably in Alberta, i.e.,

outside its usual range. These species might be in Alberta because of unusual weather occurrences, an accident during migration or unusual breeding behaviour by a small number of individuals. If a species appears in Alberta with increasing predictability and more frequently, it might eventually be given a different rank. Changes in Accidental/Vagrant species can be a good indicator of general ecosystem or climatic changes.

ACFN Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation. acid anion Negatively charged ion that does not react with hydrogen ion in the

pH range of most natural waters. acid cation Hydrogen ion or metal ion that can hydrolyze water to produce

hydrogen ions, e.g., ionic forms of aluminum, manganese and iron. acid deposition The process whereby acids are deposited by:

wet deposition. Acids are transferred from the atmosphere by precipitation (rain, fog or snow). dry deposition. Acids are transferred directly to the earth’s surface by the flow of acid-containing air masses.

July 2005 Page 1

EIA Glossary

acid neutralizing capacity (ANC)

The equivalent capacity of a solution to neutralize strong acids. Acid Neutralizing Capacity can be calculated as the difference between non-marine base cations and strong anions. This is the principal variable used to quantify the acid-base status of surface waters. Acidification is often quantified by decreases in ANC, and susceptibility of surface waters to acidic deposition impacts is often evaluated on the basis of ANC.

acid pulse Acid pulse (or episodic acidification) refers to a rapid drop in pH in surface waters over a short period. It typically occurs in the spring, and can result from: (1) dilution of base cations in surface waters by large volumes of runoff from snowmelt; or (2) release of acids stored in the snowpack that originated from industrial emissions.

acidic A solution that has an excess of hydrogen ions (H+), i.e., a pH of less than 7.

acidification A natural or anthropogenic process that decreases the acid-neutralizing capacity in water or base saturation in soil. Acidification is indicated by the lowering of pH, which can adversely affect aquatic life.

activity area An area in which a specialized cultural function was done, such as hide scraping, tool manufacture, food preparation and other activities.

acute (in ecology)

A modifier for a stimulus that has a sudden onset and lasts a short time. It can be used to define either the exposure or the response to an exposure (effect). Acute exposure typically induces a rapid and short-lived biological response.

acute exposure limit A limit used to estimate the likelihood of potential health effects as a result of short-term exposures to relatively high doses of chemical emissions.

acute threshold The concentrations of a chemical or chemical group that people can be exposed to for one-hour or 24-hours without risk of adverse effects to health.

additivity Each substance contributes to the same toxic effect in the same organ by the same mechanism, with the observed toxicity equal to that expected by adding the toxicities of the individual agents.

admixing The dilution of topsoil with subsoil, spoil or waste material, with the result that topsoil quality is reduced. Admixing can result in adverse changes in topsoil texture, poor soil aggregation and structure, loss of organic matter and decrease in friability.

adsorption The surface retention of solid, liquid or gas particles by a solid or a liquid.

advection The process whereby a solute is transported by flowing groundwater. adverse effect An effect whereby there is an impairment of or damage to the

environment, human health or safety, or property.

Page 2 July 2005

EIA Glossary

Ae horizon A mineral soil layer formed at or near the surface characterized by the eluviation of clay, iron, aluminum or organic matter.

AENV Alberta Environment AEP See AENV. aeolian Sedimentary deposits arranged by wind, such as sand and other loose

substrates in dunes. aesthetic (in water quality)

A modifier for aspects of water that are detected by the senses (primarily sight and smell).

aesthetic objective A Canadian guideline for the taste and smell qualities of drinking water.

age-to-maturity A term that refers to the age when more than 50 percent of the individuals of a particular sex within a population reach sexual maturity. Age-to-maturity of individuals within the same population can vary considerably from the population median value. In fish species, males often reach sexual maturity at a younger age than females.

agglomeration A technique that combines small particles to form larger particles. agitation tank A vessel in which slurry material is maintained in suspension by

using an impeller or by recirculating the material with pumps. Ah horizon An organic soil layer containing less than 17 percent organic carbon.

This horizon is usually expressed morphologically by a darkening of the surface soil.

air cooler A device that lowers temperature using atmospheric air as the coolant. air quality A description of the type and amount of trace constituents in ambient

air that can be described as contaminants. A contaminant (or pollutant) has the connotation of being derived from human activities.

air quality risk assessment

A risk assessment that evaluates potential long-term effects on human health caused by chemicals or chemical groups in air (includes gaseous compounds, metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs]).

airshed A geographical area that shares one or more of the following: similar terrain, similar meteorology, similar sources or similar receptors.

Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objectives (AAAQO)

Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective levels are established for several air compounds under Section 14 of the Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (EPEA). The AAAQOs form an integral part of the management of air quality in the province, and are used for reporting the state of the environment, establishing approval conditions, evaluating proposed facilities with air emissions, assessing compliance near major air emission sources and guiding monitoring programs.

July 2005 Page 3

EIA Glossary

Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB)

The agency (formerly the ERCB) in Alberta that regulates most energy projects in Alberta. Equivalents in other provinces or territories are: • Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources (MEMPR)

[British Columbia] • National Energy Board (Northern Territories) • New Brunswick Government Department of Natural Resources

and Energy (New Brunswick) • Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board (Newfoundland) • Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board (Nova Scotia) • Ontario Government Ministry of Natural Resources (Ontario) • Saskatchewan Industry and Resources (SIR) [Saskatchewan]

Alberta Environment (AENV)

Provincial ministry that looks after the following: establishes policies, legislation, plans, guidelines and standards for environmental management and protection; allocates resources through approvals, dispositions and licenses, and enforces those decisions; ensure water infrastructure and equipment are maintained and operated effectively; and prevents, reduces and mitigates floods, droughts, emergency spills and other pollution-related incidents.

Alberta Surface Water Quality Guidelines (ASWQG)

Numerical concentrations or narrative statements established to support and protect the designated uses of water. These are minimum levels of quality, developed for Alberta watersheds, below which no waterbody is permitted to deteriorate. These guidelines were established as minimum levels that would allow for the most sensitive use. These concentrations represent a goal to be achieved or surpassed.

Alberta Sustainable Resource Development (ASRD)

Provincial ministry that looks after the following: forest protection; forest land and resource development; fish and wildlife management; range land management and land use disposition management.

Alberta Vegetation Inventory (AVI)

A GIS mapping system and digital forest inventory that’s similar to Phase 3 mapping at Cold Lake. It includes tree species, height, canopy closure, stand age, site conditions, and noncommercial vegetated and nonvegetated cover types. NOTE: Phase 3 mapping is a forest inventory system showing tree species, height, canopy closure, age and site rating.

Alberta Wetland Inventory (AWI)

A GIS mapping system and digital wetland inventory that’s similar to AVI. It is independent and includes: • wetland class • amount of vegetation cover • presence or absence of permafrost • presence or absence of internal lawns • internal lawn and vegetation cover type

Page 4 July 2005

EIA Glossary

aldehyde Hydrocarbon chain compound associated with a –C-H=O single carbon bond to other chain-like hydrocarbons, e.g., aldehyde H-CHO.

alkalinity r’s capacity to neutralize an acid. It indicates the ates and hydroxides and, less

ates and organic substances. It arbonate. The composition

position, temperature and lly interpreted as a

alkene

all-terrain vehicle (ATV) gos. alluvial unning water, as in a

alluvial deposit ing water. fan

alluvium vironments by streams.

ambient air t is the breathing zone for the earth’s are of concern because of

etation and materials. workplace or in

ns asurement) nt and transducer.

e

A measure of watepresence of carbonates, bicarbonsignificantly, borates, silicates, phosphis expressed as an equivalent of calcium cof alkalinity is affected by pH, mineral comionic strength. However, alkalinity is normafunction of carbonates, bicarbonates and hydroxides. The sum of these three components is called total alkalinity.

alkane Hydrocarbon chain compound with fully saturated carbon-to-carbonbonds, e.g., methane, ethane. Hydrocarbon chain compound with unsaturated (double) carbon-to-carbon bonds, e.g., ethylene. Motorized equipment meant for off-road work. All-terrain vehicles include, snowmobiles and four-wheeled ATVs, e.g., quads and ArSoil or earth material that has been deposited by rriverbed, floodplain or delta. Eroded soil deposited by flow

alluvial A fan-shaped deposit formed by a stream. Sediment deposited in land en

alpha diversity The diversity in a particular area or ecosystem expressed as the number of species in that system.

ambient The conditions surrounding an organism or area. The part of the atmosphere thainhabitants. Contaminants in ambient air their potential effects on human health, vegAmbient air does not usually include air quality in the residences.

ambient conditio(in fluid meambient n

The conditions, e.g., pressure, temperature and humidity, of the medium surrounding the case of a meter, instrumeA type of noise existing in an area that is not relatois ed to a facility covered by ID 99-8. Ambient noise includes sound from other industrial noise not subject to ID 99-8, transportation sources, animals and nature.

July 2005 Page 5

EIA Glossary

ambient sound level (ASL)

rom . The

sured without it. The ASL can be measured when the

amine cals.

amine regeneration unit

e

ia

ibian ertebrates such as frogs, toads, and d

anion

r sample. Waters with <2 mg/L nce anoxia.

m are antagonistic to the

anthropogenic ons resulting from human

antiscalant

y area

significant or usable quantities of groundwater under ordinary

The sound level that is a composite of different airborne sounds fmany sources far away from and near the point of measurementASL does not include any energy-related industrial component and must be measound level in an area is not felt to be represented by the basic sound levels presented in Table 2 of Guide 38. The ASL must be measured under representative conditions. As with comprehensive sound levels,representative conditions do not constitute absolute worst-case conditions, i.e., the most quiet day in this case, but conditions that portray typical conditions for the area. One of a class of organic compounds that can be derived from ammonia by replacing one or more hydrogens with organic radiEquipment that removes absorbed acid gases from amine to reusablcondition for acid gas absorption.

ammon A pungent, colourless, gaseous, alkaline compound of nitrogen and hydrogen that is soluble in water, lighter than air, and can easily be condensed to a liquid by cold and pressure. Any of the class of cold-blooded vamphsalamanders intermediate between fishes and reptiles; they have gilleaquatic larva and air-breathing adults. A negatively charged ion.

annulus The space around a pipe in a wellbore, the outer wall of which might be the wall of either the wellbore or the casing. Little to no dissolved oxygen in the wateanoxia of dissolved oxygen experie

antagonis Two substances interact such that the effect of one substance is counteracted by the other. For example, antidotes poisons they are used to treat. The modifier for environmental alteratipresence or activities. An additive used in water treatment that prevents the buildup of scale, such as from calcium or iron.

AOSERP Athabasca Oil Sands Environmental Research Defines the spatial exteaquatic stud

(ASA) nt directly or indirectly affected by the project.

An impermeable stratum or maaquiclude terial that acts as a barrier to the flow of groundwater.

aquifer A water-saturated geologic unit that is capable of transmitting

hydraulic gradients.

Page 6 July 2005

EIA Glossary

aquifer depressurization

quifer.

aquifer test g quantitative information on the hydraulic

controlled manner and measuring the groundwater surface or

aquitard smit it ng.

arboreal in arboreal lichens such as old man’s beard.

ology past human cultures by recovering,

Argos les, typically capable of moving across

armoured habitat ing

ng a ring structure composed of six h are

of a single ring with no branch chains. ell

artifact mans, including aterials,

aterials. ind

artifact scatter ontext.

he ground

ASRD t

such as ore. lage s from a sampling area or

association ials are said to be associated when they are found in close proximity in an undisturbed context.

The process of reducing the natural hydrostatic pressure in an a

A method of obtainincharacteristics of an aquifer by removing water from the aquifer in a

piezometric response. Often referred to as a “pumping test” or “drawdown test”. A porous formation that absorbs water slowly but will not tranfast enough to furnish an appreciable supply for a well or a spriLiving on trees, as

ARC Alberta Research Council A type of historical resource site that represents the evidence of pastarchaeological site human cultures or societies.

archae The discipline that inspectsanalyzing, describing and interpreting their remains. Amphibious all-terrain vehicdry land, wetlands and water. Cobble and boulder habitat.

armour Protecting a channel from erosion by covering with protective material.

aromatic Organic compounds containicarbon atoms. Benzene is the simplest of these molecules, whiccomposed

artesian w A well in which the water can rise to the surface by internal hydrostatic pressure. Any portable object made, modified or used by hutools, weapons, ceremonial items, art objects and industrial mand floral and faunal m

artifact f A type of archaeological site with five or fewer artifacts. Any location that contains a collection of artifacts. Such a site can be identified in a surface or buried c

aspect Compass orientation of a slope as an inclined element of tsurface. Alberta Sutainable Resource Developmen

assay A qualitative or quantitative determination of the components of a material

assemb A grouping of cultural materials and residueunit, such as a site, pit or level. Archaeological mater

July 2005 Page 7

EIA Glossary

At Risk Any species known to be “At Risk” after formal detailed status assessment and designation as “Endangered” or “Threatened” in

atlatl ft is placed. The y of

atmospheric boundary closest to the earth’s surface, where pollutants are released

atmospheric reby gases and small particles released into the

ressure

tion,

attenuation (noise)

n over nisms,

mits

d

available drawdown is is to the top of the aquifer; in

average depth e depth of pools, riffles and runs, based on measurements .

average linear groundwater velocity

wet width

Alberta. A hand-held wooden implement in which a spear sharesultant extension of the arm increases the velocity and accuracthe spear itself. The layer

layer and dispersed. This is also where the cycles of daytime heating and nighttime cooling influence atmospheric behaviour. The process whe

dispersion atmosphere become dispersed or separated by random eddy motions or turbulence. Turbulence results in diluting a plume as it’s mixed with the ambient air and carried downwind from the release point.

atmospheric distillation

Distillation conducted at atmospheric pressure. Distillation is theprocess of producing a gas or vapour from a liquid by heating the liquid in a vessel and collecting and condensing the vapours into liquids.

atmospheric p(Patm)

The pressure caused by weight of the atmosphere on the earth’s surface. Atmospheric pressure is usually defined in a processing agreement that covers activities at a specified location. The atmospheric pressure at sea level is defined as 101.325 kPaa.

attenuation The process of reducing concentration over time through degradadilution or sorption. A reduction in sound level that occurs with sound propagatiodistance by means of physical dissipation or absorption mechaor a reduction in sound level that occurs by means of noise control measures applied to a sound source.

Atterberg Li A geometric and decimal grade scale for classifying particles in sediments based on the unit value of 2 mm and involving a fixed ration of 10 for each successive grade. Subdivisions are geometric means of the limits of each grade.

auxiliary utilities Supplementary utilities, such as diesel fuel, nitrogen, plant air ansteam. The vertical distance that the equipotential surface of an aquifer canbe lowered; in confined aquifers, thunconfined aquifers, this is to the bottom of the aquifer. Averagtaken across one to three transects within the surveyed stream sectionThe measure of the rate of groundwater movement through porous media from one point to another.

average wetted Average width of the water surface based on measurements taken across three to six transects.

Page 8 July 2005

EIA Glossary

AVI awl

Alberta Vegetation Inventory A pointed tool for making holes as in wood or leather.

equency components similar to the

an ear. S

y a reduction of or oxidation.

und eased from the site under

background concentration

al) backwater alized area exhibiting reverse flow direction and,

r

The maximum depth of a channel within a rifle segment when

Bankfull Discharge creation of pools, riffles, and

val of

barb (tang)

barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)

, r heat content.

basal aquifer on of a

basal thinning longitudinal flakes from the base of tile point or knife to facilitate hafting (fitting to

basalt with variable textures.

A-weighted sound level

The sound level as measured on a sound-level meter using a settingthat emphasizes the middle frfrequency response of the hum

AXY AXYS Environmental Consulting Ltd. B horizon A mineral soil layer characterized by enrichment in organic matter,

sesquioxides or clay; or by the development of soil structure; or bchange of colour denoting hydrolysis,

backgro An area not influenced by chemicals relevaluation. The concentration of a chemical in a defined control area during a fixed period before, during or after data gathering.

(environmentDiscrete, locgenerally lower stream velocity than main current. Substrate similato adjacent channel with more fines.

bankfull depth flowing at a bank-full discharge. The discharge which is dominant in the channel-forming processes including erosion and deposition and meanders. The discharge has a return period or recurrence inter1.5 to 2 years in natural channels. Typically, the bankfull discharge completely fills the stream channel up to the top of the bank before overflowing onto the floodplain. A sharp projection on the lateral margins of an artifact, near the base. Commonly used in describing the shoulder of a projectile point. Gas and natural gas liquids converted to their equivalent oil quantityusually based on relative energy oNOTE: Conversion factors might look like this: 10,000 cubic feet of gas = 1 BOE 1.25 bbl of natural gas = 1 BOE 1 bbl of oil = 1 BOE A water-bearing strata located at the lowest portistratigraphical unit. The intentional removal of small a chipped stone projeca shaft or handle). A dark igneous rock

July 2005 Page 9

EIA Glossary

base cation The most prevalent, exchangeable and weak acid cations in the soil including such ions as calcium (Ca2+), magnesium (Mg2+), potassium (K+) and sodium (Na+).

e ce point to which later

baseline conditions ic ect.

ata Information accumulated

el

s set

bathymetry at various places in a body of water. River a

, it is named for the Beaver River Quarry site .

bed slope bedrock al

before present (BP) ut 1000 AD. ertebrate ciation with the bottom

tes include some aquatic insect species (such as caddisfly bottom portant

roles in the aquatic community. They are involved in the mineralization and recycling of organic matter produced in the water above, or brought in from external sources, and they are important second and third links in the trophic sequence of aquatic communities. Many benthic invertebrates are major food sources for fish.

baselin A surveyed condition that serves as a referensurveys are coordinated or correlated. Data representing existing environmental, social and economconditions at and surrounding a proj

baseline d A quantitative level or value from which other data and observationsof a comparable nature are referenced. concerning the state of a system, process or activity before the initiation of actions that might result in changes.

basic sound lev(BSL)

The A-weighted Leq sound level commonly observed to occur in the designated land-use categories with industrial presence. The BSL is assumed to be 5 dBA above the ambient sound level (ASL) and iout in Table 2 of Guide 38.

basin (in geology)

A low-lying area, wholly or largely surrounded by higher land, that varies from a small nearly enclosed valley to an extensive, mountain-rimmed depression. The measure of water depth

BeaverSandstone

A distinctive raw material used for many artifacts in the oil sands areof northeastern Alberta. Likely derived from the McMurray Formation(HgOv 29), initially identified as a primary source for the materialVariation in Beaver River Sandstone suggests that numerous quarry sources exist. Because of this variation, a number of names have been applied to the material, including Beaver River Quartzite, Beaver River Sandstone, Beaver River Silicified Sandstone and, most recently, Muskeg River Silicified Limestone. The inclination of the river channel bottom. The body of rock that underlies gravel, soil or other loose superficimaterial. 1000 BP = 1000 years before 2000 AD, or abo

benthic inv Invertebrate organisms living at, in or in asso(benthic) substrate of lakes, ponds and streams. Examples of benthic invertebralarvae) that spend at least part of their lifestages dwelling onsediments in the waterbody. These organisms play several im

Page 10 July 2005

EIA Glossary

benzene (C6) An aromatic ring-type hydrocarbon or cyclic compound (C6H6) where each carbon in the ring only leaves one free bond for hydrogenIt’s used to manufacture styrene and phenol. A mound or wall of earth. A systematic error that contributes to the difference between a population mean of measurements or test results and an accepted reference value. A stone artifact flaked on both surfaces. An alkaline secretion of the vertebrate liver. Bile, which is

.

berm bias (in measurements)

biface bile

s,

umulation ithin its body a higher concentration of a ily

ot ulative substances because tic organisms.

ailability / bioavailable

y

biochemical oxygen re

bioconcentration

biodegrade biodiversity oth the

Biodiversity Species ase

(BSOD)

information on wildlife species at risk

sion biological indicators

ental stress. For example,

temporarily stored in the gall bladder, is composed of organic saltexcretion products and bile pigments. It primarily functions to emulsify fats in the small intestine.

bioacc When an organism stores wsubstance than is found in the environment. This is not necessarharmful. For example, freshwater fish must bioaccumulate salt to survive in intertidal waters. Many toxicants, such as arsenic, are nincluded among the dangerous bioaccumthey can be handled and excreted by aqua

bioav The amount of chemical that enters the general circulation of the bodfollowing administration or exposure. An empirical test in which standardized laboratory procedures aused to determine the relative oxygedemand (BOD) n requirements of wastewaters, effluents and polluted waters. A process where there is a net accumulation of a chemical directly from an exposure medium into an organism. Capable of being decomposed by biological agents. The variety of organisms and ecosystems that comprise bcommunities of organisms within particular habitats and the physical conditions under which they live.

biodiversity ranking The relative contribution of an ecosite phase/wetlands type to the overall biological diversity of an area. A repository of known location

Observation Datab in Alberta, maintained by Alberta Sustainable Resource Development.

biogenic Essential to the maintenance of life. biogenic emis A type of emission resulting from biological activity.

Any biological parameter used to indicate the response of individuals, populations or ecosystems to environmgrowth is a biological indicator.

July 2005 Page 11

EIA Glossary

biomarker A chemical, physiological or pathological measurement of exposure or effect in an individual organism from the laboratory or the field. Examples include contaminants in liver enzymes, bile and sex

boreal forest or

environment

bioremediation nisms (e.g., bacteria) that break down the undesirable

biotic r living organisms in an ecosystem. nt o a

bipolar an anvil and of

is

bitumen cous, tarry, black hydrocarbon material having an API compounds.

s bitumen froth like appearance that is the product

bitumen grade blade (lamellar flake)

oblades

blank (in fluid

BMA

r t-enerator to produce steam.

steroids. biome A major community of plants and animals such as the

tundra biome. An environment that includes air, noise, aquatics (hydrogeology, hydrology, water quality and fisheries) and terrestrial (geology,

biophysical

permafrost, soils, vegetation and wildlife) conditions. A land unit with common vegetation communities and landforms. The treatment of contaminants or waste (e.g., an oil spill) usingmicroorga

biophysical unit

substances. The modifier fo

biotic gradie The scale or continuum moving from having little living material tvery productive site. The technique of resting a core, or lithic implement onstriking the core with a percussor. Contrary to popular belief, bulbsforce are not present on both ends of bi-polar flakes or blades. Thtechnique causes the cone of force to be shattered or severed. A highly visgravity of about 8. It is a complex mixture of organic

bitumen bottom The part of bitumen having a boiling point higher than 525°C. Air-entrained bitumen with a froth-of the primary extraction step in the extraction process. The amount of bitumen in oil sands usually expressed as a percentage.A flake with parallel edges and a length that is equal to or twice the width. The blade classification includes prismatic blades, micrand ridge flakes. A type of barrier in a pipe or flow channel that prevents fluid from

measurement) flowing within. blow down The act of emptying or depressurizing material in a vessel.

Bear Management Area bog A type of peatland that receives its surface moisture only from

precipitation. Bogs are generally acidic and relatively low-nutrient wetlands that support a ground cover of Sphagnum mosses and lichens.

boiler feed wate(BFW)

Water that meets required quality specifications and is used in a hearecovery steam g

Page 12 July 2005

EIA Glossary

Bonferroni confidence vals

d that adjusts for multiple comparisons ed.

Borden Blocks (Borden System)

gical site locations in Canada. Sites are referred to by a

,

. In

borehole

bottom sediments iver

bottom-feeding fish the

condition , groundwater

brine reater than 100,000 mg/L total dissolved solids.

g

brown water hich

rations in brown water lakes and streams usually range from

interA simple statistical methowhile assuring that an overall confidence coefficient is maintainA system of organization derived by Borden (1954) that uses units based on subdivisions of longitude and latitude to identify archaeoloBorden number, which consists of four letters accompanied by a number, e.g., FaPq 11. The uppercase letters represent major blocks 2° by 4° in size, e.g., F = 52° to 54° latitude, P = 112° to 116° longitude. Lowercase letters denote 10° units within the major blockse.g., a = 0° to 10° latitude; q = 40° to 50° longitude. The numbers refer to specific site locations within the units, and are assigned sequentially to all sites identified within the 10° by 10° unitAlberta, Borden numbers are assigned by the Heritage Resource Management Branch of Alberta Community Development. A hole drilled into the ground using a drilling rig, with the hole to beused to determine the surficial geological stratigraphy. Substrates that lie at the bottom of a body of water. For example, the soft mud, silt, sand, gravel, rock and organic litter that make up a rbottom. Fish that feed on the substrates and/or organisms associated with river bottom.

boundary A specified value of hydraulic head (specified head cell), specified groundwater inflow or outflow (zero hydraulic gradientrecharge or well), or a specified relationship between hydraulic head and groundwater flow (general head boundary, recharge-seepage face or river). Boundary conditions are required at the boundaries of the model domain. Water with total dissolved solids between 1000 and 10,000 mg/L. brackish water

braided A term for an active channel zone with diverging and converging channels separated by unvegetated sand or gravel bars. Many channels are dry at moderate and low flows, but fill with water during floods. Water that contains high concentrations of soluble salts with a mineralization g

broadcast seedin A method of sowing seed using a machine with a rotating fan-like distributor. Freshwaters containing elevated amounts of humic materials, wimpart a yellow-brown colour to the water. Dissolved organic carbon concent10 to 40 mg/L.

July 2005 Page 13

EIA Glossary

Brunisol A modifier for soils in which the horizons are developed sufficientlto exclude th

y e soils from the Regosolic order, but lack the degrees or

bryophyte mosses, liverworts and hornworts, which are

BSOD Bt horizon

s es. buffering capacity rotons or hydroxide ions

nel r deposits.

g s bottled gas aints.

g

g

stones.

salts are

bonate (CaCO3)

kinds of horizon development specified for soils of the other orders. These soils, which occur under a wide variety of climatic and vegetative conditions, all have Bm or Btj horizons. Plants, includingcharacterized by their lack of vascular tissues and some other terrestrial adaptations of vascular plants. Biodiversity Species Observation Database A mineral soil layer characterized by clay accumulation. A mineral soil layer enriched with silicate clay. Btj horizon

Buffer Zone A transition zone between areas managed for different objectivThe ability of a buffer solution to absorb pwithout a significant change in pH.

buried chan A type of old channel concealed by surficial deposits. buried valley A type of bedrock depression covered by youngebush economy Representing some of the value of a traditional life, considering

hunting, trapping, berry collection and other activities. A hydrocarbon that occurs in natural gas and is produced by crackinpetroleum. It’s sometimes added to p

butane (C4) ropane and sold a

but is mostly used to make synthetic rubber and latex p°C degrees Celsius C horizon A mineral soil layer comparatively unaffected by the soil-formin

processes operating in the A and B horizons. C14 age datin A method of dating items containing natural carbonaceous materials

based on the known half-life of the Carbon 14 isotope. A type of monument or landmark, represented by a mound of cairn

calcareous A science and technology term used to describe geological materials that have a significant component of calcium carbonate, e.g., limestone.

calcium (Ca) A soft greyish-white metallic element of the alkaline-earth group occurring naturally in limestone and chalk. Its ions and essential to life.

calcium car A white insoluble solid compound occurring naturally as chalk, limestone, marble and calcite and used in manufacturing lime and cement.

calendar day A measure of time consisting of 24 hours from 12:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m.

Page 14 July 2005

EIA Glossary

CALGRID An Eulerian photochemical transport and dispersion model that includes modules for horizontal and vertical advection/diffusion, drdepositio

y n and a detailed photochemical mechanism.

ntaining objective analysis and parameterized treatments ith a

l

dules

calibration form with a certified e

calibration tank Cambrian Formation rata deposited during the oldest period of the

campsite (in archaeology) lace or hearth and other

aterials such as lithics, faunal remains, ceramics e or

Water s

to

egetation

carbon f all life. All organic substances, g

ed in chains or rings and

carbonate istry)

ion in the carbonate buffer system. The carbonate ion

carbonate rock

carbon dioxide (CO2) A colourless, odourless, tasteless gas about 1.5 times as dense as air.

CALMET A meteorological model that includes a diagnostic wind field generator coof slope flow, kinematic terrain effects, terrain blocking effects wdivergence minimization procedure, and a micrometeorological modefor overland and overwater boundary layers.

CALPUFF A non-steady Lagrangian Gaussian Puff Model containing mofor complex terrain effects, overwater transport interaction effects, building downwash, wet and dry removal, and simple chemical transformation. The process of adjusting an instrument to conreference calibration standard, thus providing accurate values over thinstrument’s prescribed operating range. See calibrating tank. The system of stPaleozoic Era. A location containing artifacts that are more patterned in their distribution, including evidence of a firepculturally modified mand structural remains. Such a site can be identified in a surfacburied context.

CanadianQuality Guideline(CWQG)

Numerical concentrations or narrative statements recommendedsupport and maintain a designated water use in Canada. The guidelines contain recommendations for chemical, physical, radiological and biological parameters necessary to protect and enhance designated uses of water.

cancer

canopy

A disease characterized by the rapid and uncontrolled growth of aberrant cells into malignant tumours. An overhanging cover, shelter or shade. The tallest layer of vin an area. An element that is the foundation oby definition, contain carbon. The compounds that comprise livintissues are made of carbon atoms arrangassociated with many other elements. (See organic carbon.) The CO3-2

(in chem forms a solid precipitant when combined with dissolved ions of calcium of magnesium. A rock, such as limestone, composed of at least 50 percent carbonates.

July 2005 Page 15

EIA Glossary

carbon dioxequivalent (CO

ide 2E) f

ssions, e.g., methane emissions, are converted ivalent

(COS)

(vegetation) carrying capacity on size that can be supported by the available

CASA ir Strategic Alliance peak activation energy required for a

er

ge system, such as a river or its tributaries. er-unit effort time or distance) expended to capture

it

cation term for a positively charged atom or group of atoms, or .

cation exchange r on the s

cation exchange y

angeable cations that a soil can adsorb at a

centre reject

ceramics Clay artifacts, such as vessels, that have been intentionally fired.

A measure that allows the global warming potential of various greenhouse gases to be represented by a corresponding amount ocarbon dioxide. Gas emito the amount of carbon dioxide that would result in the equglobal warming potential.

carbonate The CO3 –2 ion in the carbonate buffer system. The carbonate ion forms a solid precipitant when combined with dissolved ions of

calcium or magnesium. A chemical compound of the aldehyde group containing a carbonyl group and sulphur. It is sometimes a contaminant in natural gas and NGL and might need to be removed to ensure the product meets

carbonyl sulphide

sulphur specifications. An agent that is reactive or toxic enough to act directly to cause cancer.

carcinogen

cardinal directions carpet

North, south, east and west. An area of loosely consolidated peat, extending only slightly above the water surface. The maximum populatiresources. Clean A

catalyst A substance that reduces the chemical reaction, such as by allowing the reaction to occur at a lowtemperature.

catchment area An area in which surface runoff collects and from which it is carried by a draina

catch-p A measure of the effort (over fish. This permits quantification (number of fish per hour or per undistance) of abundance. The chemical a radical that moves to the negative pole (cathode) during electrolysisThe interaction between a cation in solution and anothesurface of any surface-active material in the soil, such as clay colloidor organic matter. The total amount of exch

capacit given pH, expressed in centimols of positive charge per kilogram of soil (cmol(+) /kg).

CEMA Cumulative Environmental Management Association A non-bituminous baring material found within a central zone of the oil sands ore body.

Page 16 July 2005

EIA Glossary

cervid Cg horizo

Of the family Cervidae, which includes elk, deer, moose and caribouA mineral soil layer with C horizon characteristics and grey colours oprominent mottling

. n r

or both. ny inantly of

r us tints.

l cover

stumps, fallen trees) in the stream that

,

chemicals of potential concern (COPCs)

t are fully selected

ich g and

co ion of human health.

the

chi-square analysis

is

icator of algal concentration.

y

chalcedo A cryptocrystalline variety of quartz composed predomsilica and having the near luster of paraffin wax. Can be transparent otranslucent and vario

channel The bed of a stream or river. channe The vegetation that projects over the channel width of a stream and

material that is in the stream. It is recorded as the percent of the channel width covered within a 50 m section of the stream at each site. Channel cover is arbitrarily divided into three levels: • Crown: vegetation >1 m above the water surface • Overhanging: vegetation <1 m above the water surface • Instream: material (debris,

can provide cover for fish channel unit Distinct channel sections with specific characteristics of water depth

velocity and cover for fish. Chemicals or chemical groups emitted from the Project thaevaluated in the risk assessment. These chemicals arethrough a comprehensive chemical screening process in whProject Case chemical concentrations are compared to ExistinApproved Case concentrations, regulatory guidelines and risk-based

ncentrations for the protectchert A hard, sedimentary rock, consisting mainly of interlocking quartz

crystals. Chironomids A taxonomic family of invertebrates consisting of flies referred to as

non-biting midges. The larval stage is aquatic and is included inbenthic invertebrate community. A statistical test to determine if the patterns exhibited by data could have been produced by chance.

chloris Loss or reduction of green plant pigment (generally yellowing) or chlorophyll.

chlorophyll a One of the green pigments in plants. It is a photo-sensitive pigment that is essential for the conversion of inorganic carbon, e.g., carbon dioxide, and water into organic carbon, e.g., sugar. The concentrationof chlorophyll a in water is an ind

chopper A natural pebble or cobble with a crude, steep cutting edge formed bunifacial percussion flaking.

July 2005 Page 17

EIA Glossary

chronic (in ecology) e;

nic

chronic toxicity unit (TUc)

t

Ck horizon

Cladocera order.

s). This provides a direct summary of area for

bed land, or which changes patch types from

classification (soil) ses on the

clearcut modifier the stand. A clearcut modifier (CC) indicates a

Clearwater Formation Imperial Oil leases.

e

climax community e dition.

operation ater lost during the replaced

A modifier for a stimulus that’s lingering or continues for a long timoften signifies periods from several weeks to years, depending on thereproductive life cycle of an aquatic species. It can be used to define either the exposure or the response to an exposure (effect). Chroexposure typically induces a biological response of relatively slow progress and long continuance.

chronic toxicity The development of adverse effects after an extended exposure to relatively small quantities of a chemical. Measurement of long-duration toxicity that produces an adverse effecon organisms. A mineral soil layer with C horizon characteristics, as well as the presence of carbonate.

cladoceran A zoology term used to describe minute, chiefly freshwater branchiopod crustaceans (water fleas), of

class area (ca) The total area of each patch type, or of the total undisturbed landscape area (in hectarecomparison of losses due to disturbances, that either decreases thetotal amount of undisturone type to another. The systematic arrangement of soils into categories and clasbasis of their characteristics. Broad groupings are based on general characteristics, and subdivisions are based on detailed differences in specific properties. An AVI stand condition modifier presents additional information about the condition ofresult from timber harvesting, either clear or selective harvesting, depending on extent (AEP 1991). The location within the Mannville Group containing the largest bitumen resource on

climax The culminating stage in plant succession for a given site where thvegetation has reached a stable condition. The culminating stage in plant succession for a given site where thvegetation has reached a stable con

climax forest A community of plants that will eventually grow and remain dominant in an area.

cline A gradual change in a feature across the distributional range of a species or population.

closed-circuit A process in which potentially contaminated water is not discharged into a receiving stream but is reused. Any wprocess through evaporation or binding with some material is by make-up water.

Page 18 July 2005

EIA Glossary

closed-loop recycling

cm

nt of variation

rdam m-like structure constructed around an excavation to

tion nt.

slopes by rain or creep.

(in ecology) teracting as a unit. er

on (fisheries) of fish production by artificial means

here sures are not adequate to maintain

complex cts or traits that might be

complex stand

concentration e, of a chemical in

conceptual model eveloped at an early stage of the risk assessment process f

The model levant

Recycling or reusing wastewater for non-potable purposes in an enclosed process.

closure The point after shutdown of operations when regulatory certification is received and the area is returned to the Crown. centimetre carbon dioxide CO2

coarse (in soils) coefficie

The modifier for the texture exhibited by sands, loamy sands andsandy loams, except very fine sandy loam. Standardized index of the variability of a value relative to the mean value.

coffe A temporary daexclude water.

cogenera The process of simultaneous on-site generation of electrical powerand process steam or heat from the same pla

colluvium Any loose, heterogeneous and incoherent material deposited at the base of

community A term that pertains to plant or animal species living in close association or in

compaction The process of pore space reduction in soil or sediments from heavioverlying material weighing the soil down.

compensati The replacement of natural habitat, increase in the productivity of existing habitat or maintenance in circumstances dictated by social and economic conditions, wmitigation techniques and other meahabitat for Canada’s fisheries resources. A consistently recurring assemblage of artifaindicative of a specific set of activities, or a common cultural tradition. A stand (group of trees) composed of stems with a high variation in height. The canopy does not exhibit distinct layers. A quantifiable amount, as mass or volumenvironmental media such as air, water, soils, organisms or tissues (e.g., mg/L, mg/kg, mg/m3, ppm). A model dthat describes a series of working hypotheses of how the chemicals oconcern can affect potentially exposed populations. identifies the populations potentially at risk along with the reexposure pathways and scenarios.

July 2005 Page 19

EIA Glossary

condition factor A measure of the relative “fitness” of an individual or population of fishes by examining the mathematical relationship between growth in length relative to growth in weight. In populations where increaslength are matched by increases in weight, the growth is said to be isometric. Allometric growth, the m

es in

ost common situation in wild

conditioning drums it

conductivity ciprocal of resistance. This measurement provides

he alteration of total water quality due to

cone of depression

configuration

s of )

heric pressure and above the top of the

connate water e

connectivity

proach

s be

consolidation soil or semi-solid mass.

y) or

ting cultural activities and significance.

populations, occurs when increases in either length or weight are disproportionate. Large, inclined cylindrical tumblers that rotate slowly, used for preparing (conditioning) oil sands for primary extraction by mixingwith hot water and steam. The measure of a waterbody’s capacity to conduct an electrical current. It is the rethe limnologist with an estimate of the total concentration of dissolved ionic matter in the water. Measurement of conductivity provides a quick check of tadding pollutants to the water. A term used to describe the depression of the water table or potentiometric surface. It defines a well’s area of influence asgroundwater is pumped. The location and arrangement of landscape elements. A saturated geologic unit that isconfined aquifer constrained from above and below by deposits of significantly lower permeability, i.e., several ordermagnitude. This results in a groundwater level (hydraulic headusually exceeding atmospaquifer.

conifers White spruce, black spruce, balsam fir, jack pine and tamarack. Water entrapped in the opening or space of a sedimentary rock at thtime of its deposition. A measure of how connected or spatially continuous a corridor ormatrix is. Canadian Oil Sands Network for Research and Development. CONRAD

conservative ap A process whereby protective assumptions are incorporated to ensure that risk will not be underestimated. Assumptions or values that are selected to represent the worst possible ca

conservative assumption se. These assumptions are used when information is

uncertain or when there are a range of possible values that can used. The gradual reduction in volume of a

context (in archaeolog

A type of spatial, temporal and cultural relationship between archaeological items and samples within a site and the environment in which they are found. The context of cultural samples is the basis finterpre

Page 20 July 2005

EIA Glossary

contour (in mappcontrol

ing)

(in an experiment)

e l

hot summer afternoon.

ce alculations when calculating the hydraulic

ence

core reduction/rejuvenation (trimming flakes) sion or pressure techniques. They can be further separated into

or to

corrosion scale inhibitors .

or

Cretaceous est period of the

A line that connects points of equal values, e.g., elevation, withreference to a datum. The treatment in an experiment with the absence of the variable under study. A control provides a standard for comparison to determine the effect of the variable.

convectivmeteorologicaconditionconvergence toleran

A condition where turbulence is enhanced due to intense solar heating, e.g., during a

The permissible difference between computed hydraulic heads for successive computer cheads using a numerical groundwater flow model. The convergtolerance is set to a small value to give an acceptable mass balance error.

core A blocky nucleus of stone from which flakes or blades have been removed. Intentional flake wastage in the process of further flake removal. Flakes exhibit the remnants of past platforms and are removed by percustransverse or lateral trimming flakes depending on their point of impact.

corrid

corrosion

A travel route allowing animals to migrate from one faunal regionanother. The effect of metals deteriorating due to galvanic or chemical action. Substances that prevent the buildup of metal oxides produced by corrosion

cortex Fresh surface of a nodule that has been altered by weathering. CommitteCOSEWIC e on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada

cratering

craton

The act of creating depressions, or craters in the snow when foraging for food. Usually done by elk or other ungulates. A portion of a continent that has not been subjected to major deformation for a prolonged time, typically since Precambrian early Paleozic time.

creek A branch or small tributary of a river. The modifier for a geologic time that is the youngMesozoic Era.

July 2005 Page 21

EIA Glossary

critical load A quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge. For waterbody acidification, the critical load represents an estimate of the amount of acidic deposition below which significant adverse changes are not expected to occur in a lake’s ecosystem.

crop tree regeneration The renewal of a forest or stand of trees by natural or artificial means, usually white spruce, jack pine or aspen.

Crown land An area where mineral rights are owned by the federal or provincial governments in Canada.

crude oil Unrefined liquid hydrocarbon. CT consolidated tailings cubic decametres (dam3)

A metric measure of volume equal to 1000 m3 of liquid, usually water.

cubic metre A metric unit for reporting volume, expressed as m3 at 15°C and 101.325 kPaa.

cubic metres per day (m3/d)

A measure of oil production or processing rate.

cubic metres per second (m3/s)

The standard measure of water flow in rivers (i.e., the volume of water in cubic metres that passes a given point in one second).

culture The sum of man’s non-biological behavioural traits: learned, patterned and adaptive.

cumulative effects assessment (CEA)

The assessment of the effects of one project with consideration of current conditions, other existing projects, other approved projects and typically, other planned projects.

Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA)

An association of oil sands industry, other industry, regional community representatives, regulatory agencies and other stakeholders designed to develop systems to manage cumulative effects associated with developments in the Oil Sands Region.

cyclo- A prefix modifier describing a hydrocarbon ring or cyclic compound of saturated or unsaturated carbon to carbon bonds, e.g., cyclohexane (C6H12).

cyclofeeder A vertical, open-topped cylindrical vessel with a conical bottom. Cyclofeeders are used to mix oil sands with warm water, forming a slurry that can be pumped via a pipeline to Extraction. Warm water is introduced through horizontal ports at the bottom of the vessel’s vertical portion to produce a vortex inside the vessel, into which incoming oil sands falls. The energy imparted to the oil sands forms a slurry that is withdrawn at the bottom of the cone.

Page 22 July 2005

EIA Glossary

Darcy’s Law A law describing the rate of flow of water through porous media. (Named for Henry Darcy of Paris who formulated it in 1856 from extensive work on the flow of water through sand filter beds).

deaerator A device in which oxygen, carbon dioxide and other non-condensable gases are removed from boiler feed water, steam condensate or a process stream.

debitage Waste by-products from tool manufacture. decibel (dB) A unit of measure for sound pressure that compresses a large range of

numbers into a more meaningful scale. Hearing tests indicate that the lowest audible pressure is approximately 2 x 10-5 Pa (0 dB), while the sensation of pain is approximately 2 x 102 Pa (140 dB). Generally, an increase of 10 dB is perceived as twice as loud.

decibel adjusted (dBA) The decibel (dB) sound-pressure level filtered to approximate human hearing response.

decommissioning The act of taking a processing plant or facility out of service and isolating equipment to prepare for routine maintenance work, suspending or abandoning.

demineralizer Equipment in which mineral constituents are removed from water. dendritic drainage pattern

A stream system that branches irregularly in all directions with the tributaries joining with the main stream at all angles.

density The ratio of an object’s mass to its volume. Density varies as temperature changes and is therefore generally expressed as the mass per unit volume at a specified temperature.

Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) (now Fisheries and Oceans Canada)

Responsible for policies and programs in support of Canada's economic, ecological and scientific interests in oceans and inland waters; for the conservation and sustainable utilization of Canada's fisheries resources in marine and inland waters; for leading and facilitating federal policies and program on oceans; and for safe effective and environmentally sound marine services responsive to the needs of Canadians in a global economy.

deposit Material left in a new position by a natural transporting agent such as water, wind, ice or gravity, or by the activity of man.

deposition (in air quality)

The process whereby dispersed particles land on soil and plants, hosts and nonhosts.

deposition (in geology)

The product of the layering or accumulation of any material.

depositional Gentle slope with fines. depressurization The process of reducing the pressure in an aquifer, by withdrawing

water from it. depuration Loss of accumulated chemical residues from an organism placed in

clean water or clean solution.

July 2005 Page 23

EIA Glossary

desulphurization A process in which sulphur compounds are removed from a gas or liquid hydrocarbon stream. See also “Flue Gas Desulphurization”.

detection limit (dl) The lowest concentration at which individual measurement results for a specific analyte are statistically different from a blank (that might be zero) with a specified confidence level for a given method and representative matrix.

detoxification To decrease the toxicity of a compound. Bacteria decrease the toxicity of resin and fatty acids in mill effluent by metabolizing or breaking down these compounds; enzymes like the EROD or P4501A proteins begin the process of breaking down and metabolizing many “oily” compounds by adding an oxygen atom.

detrended correspondence analysis (dca)

An ordination technique used to visually determine species and site relationships.

development area Any area altered to an unnatural state. This represents all land and water areas included within activities associated with the development of oil sands leases.

Devonian A period of the Paleozoic era thought to have covered the span of time between 400 and 345 million years ago; also, the corresponding system of rocks.

dew point The temperature and pressure at which a liquid, e.g., water vapour, begins to condense out of a gas.

dewatering Removal of groundwater from a geological formation using wells or drainage ditch systems.

diagenesis Process involving physical and chemical changes in groundwater, e.g., includes solution of soluble minerals, cation exchange between groundwater and rock, ions diffusion.

diagnostic artifact A type of artifact that can be related to a specific period or cultural complex, identified by its form, style or material type. The diagnostic artifact is the basis for interpreting the relative cultural or temporal association of a cultural assemblage.

diameter at breast height (DBH)

The diameter of a tree 1.5 m above the ground on the uphill side of the tree.

diatom The common name for algae composing the class Bacillariophyceae. It is noted for the symmetry and sculpturing of the siliceous cell walls.

diatomaceous earth A yellow, white or light grey, siliceous, porous deposit made of the opaline shells of diatoms. It is used as a filter aid, paint filler, adsorbent, abrasive and thermal insulator.

Page 24 July 2005

EIA Glossary

diesel PM A complex mixture of airborne particles and gases released from diesel combustion. Individual particles are composed of elemental carbon with organic compounds, e.g., VOCs and PAHs, and small amounts of sulfate, nitrate, metals and other trace elements adsorbed to the surface.

digital elevation model (DEM)

A type of model whereby a three-dimensional grid represents the height of a landscape above a given datum.

diluent The diluting agent such as a light liquid hydrocarbon added to bitumen to lower viscosity and density.

direct economic impact

The financial effect of a project that results in such things as hiring staff and paying wages, generating business income and making payments to government, e.g., taxes and royalties.

direct employment A term describing employment created by a project. direct income A term describing business and personal income generated by a

project’s construction and operation. discharge In a stream or river, the volume of water that flows past a given point

in a unit of time, e.g., cubic meters per second. discharge zone An area in which subsurface water is discharged to the land surface, a

water body or the atmosphere. disclimax A type of climax community that is maintained by either continuous

or intermittent disturbance to a severity that the natural climax vegetation is altered.

dispersal routes The travel route of an animal from its birth site or breeding site. dispersion The process whereby solute spreads with the surrounding

groundwater along and perpendicular to a flow path due to diffusion and physical mixing.

dispersion model A set of mathematical relationships used to describe the rise and subsequent dispersion of a plume as it’s transported by the wind. These relationships are given coded names, e.g., SCREEN3 and CALPUFF and used by a computer model.

disposition A term to describe rights granted by the government to an individual, company or organization to undertake an activity on a particular tract of land.

dissolved organic carbon (DOC)

The dissolved portion of organic carbon water; made up of humic substances and partly degraded plant and animal materials.

dissolved oxygen (DO)

Measurement of the concentration of dissolved (gaseous) oxygen in the water, usually expressed in milligrams per litre (mg/L).

distillation The process of producing a gas or vapour from a liquid by heating the liquid in a vessel and collecting and condensing the vapours into liquids.

July 2005 Page 25

EIA Glossary

disturbance (in archaeology)

A cultural deposit is said to be disturbed when the original sequence of deposition has been altered. Examples of agents of disturbance include erosion, plant or animal activity, cultivation and excavation.

disturbance (terrestrial)

A force that causes significant change in structure and/or composition of a habitat.

disturbance area (DA) The area of disturbance (hectares) in a fragmentation and heterogeneity analysis.

disturbance coefficient The effectiveness of the habitat within the disturbance zone of influence in fulfilling the requirements of a species.

disturbance zone of influence

The maximum distance to which a disturbance, e.g., traffic noise, is felt by a species.

disturbed land A modifier for land on which excavation has occurred or on which overburden has been deposited, or both.

diversity (in ecology) The variety, distribution and abundance of different plant and animal communities and species within an area.

dose The amount of a substance that is ingested, inhaled, or applied to the skin (expressed in units of mg per kg body weight per day).

dose response The quantitative relationship between exposure of an organism to a chemical and the extent of the adverse effect resulting from that exposure.

dose response principle

The fundamental principle in toxicology, based on the assumption that the response of a specific organism to a chemical is directly related to the amount of chemical that is received by the organism.

drainage (in geology)

Water in a given surface area that flows off by stream or subsurface conduits.

drainage (in soils)

A term that refers to the frequency and duration of periods when the soil is not saturated. Terms used are: • rapidly drained • well drained • moderately drained • imperfectly drained • poorly drained very poorly drained

drainage basin The total area that contributes water to a stream. drake A male duck. drawdown Lowering of water level caused by pumping. It is measured for a

given quantity of water pumped during a specified period, or after the pumping level has become constant.

Page 26 July 2005

EIA Glossary

drawdown cone A conical groundwater surface created in an unconfined aquifer due to pumping, or an imaginary conical surface indicating pressure relief in a confined aquifer due to pumping.

drift density The number of organisms per m3 of stream water. drift deposits Any sediment laid down by, or in association with, the activity of

glaciers and ice sheets. drill / perforator A pointed, edge-retouched tool that is rotated on the long axis for the

purpose of drilling usually into wood or bone. drill stem tester (DST) A device used in a borehole to measure hydraulic properties of a

tested interval and/or to collect fluid samples. dry deposition The process whereby contaminants are removed from the atmosphere

by direct contact with surface features such as vegetation. This process is sometimes expressed as a flux in units of kg/ha/a (kilograms of contaminant per hectare of land-surface area per year).

dry landscape reclamation

A reclamation approach that involves dewatering or incorporation of fine tailings into a solid deposit capable of being reclaimed as a land surface or a wetlands.

dyke An embankment built to hold semi-solids or fluids. echolocation High frequency sounds (25 to 120 kHz) produced by bats that are

beyond the range of human hearing (20 Hz to 25 kHz). These sounds are produced with great intensity. Echoes resulting from sound returning from objects in the bat’s environment provide information to the bat.

ecodistricts Landscape units that represent similar geology, landform and vegetation characteristics that best reflect overall patterns of landscape features.

ecofact Nonartifactual evidence from the past that has cultural relevance; e.g., pollen.

ecological land classification (ELC)

A hierarchical classification system that classifies land units based on an analysis of the vegetation, soils, site conditions and site productivity. The three levels of classification are: ecosite ecosite phase plant community

ecology A branch of science concerned with the inter-relationship of organisms and their environments.

ecoregion An ecological area that has broad similarities in soil, relief and dominant vegetation.

ecosection Clearly recognizable landforms such as river valleys and wetlands at a broad level of generalization.

July 2005 Page 27

EIA Glossary

ecosites Ecological units that develop under similar environmental influences (climate, moisture and nutrient regime). Ecosites are groups of one or more ecosite phases that occur within the same portion of the moisture/nutrient grid. Ecosite is a functional unit defined by the moisture and nutrient regime. It is not tied to specific landforms or plant communities, but is based on the combined interaction of biophysical factors that together dictate the availability of moisture and nutrients for plant growth.

ecosite phase A subdivision of the ecosite based on the dominant tree species in the canopy. Where there is no tree canopy, i.e., in shrubby and graminoid phases, the tallest structural vegetation layer determines the ecosite phase.

ecosystem A single functional system that includes all living organisms and nonliving factors such as sunlight, temperature, moisture, soil, mineral elements, topography and all their interactions.

ecotone The transition of physical and biological characteristics, from one community to the next.

edaphic A modifier in ecology that pertains to soil, particularly with respect to its influence on plant growth and other organisms together with climate.

edaphic community A plant group that results from or is influenced by soil factors such as salinity and drainage.

edge Where different plant communities meet in space on a landscape, and where plant communities meet a disturbance. An outer band of a patch that usually has an environment significantly different from the interior of the patch.

edge effect An ecological effect associated with patch edges. An outer band of a plant community that usually has an environment significantly different from the interior of the plant community.

edge species A species found only or primarily near the perimeter of a patch. effective drainage area The part of a watershed area that contributes to surface runoff. effective porosity The ratio of the volume of void space through which water can travel

to the total volume. effluent Stream of water (often treated wastewater) discharging from a source. e.g. exempli gratia EIA environmental impact assessment Ekman dredge A grabbing device for collecting benthic invertebrates and vegetation

samples from the bottom substrates of lakes, ponds and streams.

Page 28 July 2005

EIA Glossary

Elder A person in an Aboriginal community who is considered to have reached a sufficient level of experience to act as an advisor to the Aboriginal band or community. Elders are generally people older than the age of 50 or 60, depending on the specific definition of the Aboriginal group concerned.

electrical conductivity A measure of how well a material accommodates the transport of electrical charge. In the case of soluble ions, electrical conductivity is measured in milliSiemens per centimeter (mS/cm).

electrofishing A live-fish capture technique in which negative (anode) and positive (cathode) electrodes are placed in the water and an electrical current is passed between the electrodes. Fish are attracted (galvano-taxis) to the anode and become stunned (galvano-narcosis) by the current, allowing fish to be collected, measured and released.

elevation Measurement of the height of the land above sea level. eluvial horizon A soil layer formed by transporting soil material in suspension or in

solution within the soil by the downward or lateral movement of water.

eluviation The process of transporting soil material in suspension or in solution within the soil by the downward or lateral movement of water.

end pit lake A man-made lake, used to fill a mine pit area into which the remaining fine tailings at the end of mine might be discharged and stored under a water cap. See Pit Lake.

endangered A species facing immediate extinction or extirpation. endemic species The term for a species restricted to a certain country or area. endogamy Marriage within one’s own tribe or similar unit. energy equivalent sound level (Leq)

The average A-weighted sound level over a specified period of time. It is a single-number representation of the cumulative acoustical energy measured over a time interval. The time interval used should be specified in parentheses following the Leq; e.g., Leq (9) is a 9-hour Leq. If a sound level is constant over the measurement period, the Leq will equal the constant sound level where f is the fraction of time the constant level L is present.

entrenchment ratio The ratio of the width of the flood-prone area to the surface width of the bankfull channel that is used to describe the degree of vertical containment of a river channel.

environment (biophysical)

The complex of physical, chemical and biotic factors, such as climate, soil and living things, that act on an organism or an ecological community and ultimately determine its form and survival.

environment (human) The aggregate of social and cultural conditions that influence the life of an individual or community.

July 2005 Page 29

EIA Glossary

environmental impact assessment (EIA)

A review of the effects that a proposed development will have on the local and regional environment.

environmental management plan

A plan developed by a decision-unit manager or designate that’s aligned with the company-wide environmental business plan to address: environmental aspects environmental goals, performance indicators and targets environmental projects and programs to achieve regulatory compliance and continuous improvement roles and responsibilities timeframes to achieve environmental goals and targets

environmental media One of the major categories of material found in the physical environment that surrounds or contacts organisms, e.g., surface water, groundwater, soil, food or air, and through which chemicals can move and reach the organism.

Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (EPEA) (Alberta)

The purpose of the act is to support and promote the protection, enhancement and wise use of the environment.

environmental setting A quantitative level or value from which other data and observations of a comparable nature are referenced. Information accumulated concerning the state of a system, process or activity before the initiation of actions that can result in changes.

eolian A designation of rocks and soils whose constituents have been carried and laid down by atmospheric currents.

ephemeral A phenomenon or feature that lasts only a short time (e.g., an ephemeral stream is only present for short periods during the year).

epilimnion A freshwater zone of relatively warm water in which mixing occurs as a result of wind action and convection currents.

epilyxic A plant that typically grows on decaying wood. epiphyseal plate The area where the metacarpal and phalange meet in an animal’s foot. epiphyte A plant, such as lichens or orchids, that grows on another plant but

depends on it only for physical support, not for nutrients. episodic acidification Also referred to as a spring acid pulse, this natural phenomena occurs

commonly in surface waters and is usually a response to snowmelt or rainfall. Industrial sources can contribute to this depression of pH and increase the recovery period.

equilibrium vapour pressure

The pressure at which a liquid and its vapour are in equilibrium at a given temperature.

era (in geology)

A division of geologic time, comprising one or more periods, e.g., Mesozoic Era.

Page 30 July 2005

EIA Glossary

EROD (7-ethoxyresorufin 0-de ethylase)

Used to measure fish exposure to chemicals, particularly polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). It is a biomarker that measures the activity of an enzyme that metabolizes PAHs.

erosion The process by which material, such as rock or soil, is worn away or removed by wind or water.

escarpment A cliff or steep slope at the edge of an upland area. The steep face of a river valley.

eskers Long, narrow bodies of sand and gravel deposited by a subglacial stream running between ice walls or in an ice tunnel, left behind after melting of the ice of a retreating glacier.

ethane (C2) A hydrocarbon gas that’s used as a fuel and refrigerant. eutrophic A modifier for a lake with high primary productivity based on

measures of nutrients, chlorophyll a and fauna. evaporation The process by which water is changed from a liquid to a vapour. evaporation (lake) Evaporation that occurs from a lake surface. evapotranspiration A measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from a

location through the processes of evaporation and water loss from plants (transpiration).

evapotranspiration, areal

Evapotranspiration that occurs over a given area.

evapotranspiration, potential

The maximum quantity of water capable of being evaporated from the soil and transpired from the vegetation of a specified region in a given time interval under existing climatic conditions.

evenness The relative abundance of species; measured using the Shannon Weiner Index.

exotic/alien Any species that has been introduced as a result of human activities. exposure The contact reaction between a chemical and a biological system, or

organism. Estimated dose of chemical that is received by a particular receptor via a specific exposure pathway, e.g., ingestion, inhalation, expressed as the amount of chemical received, per body weight, per unit time,i.e., mg/kg/day.

exposure assessment The second step in the risk assessment process. It estimates the amount of a chemical a person can take into his or her body (referred to as a dose) through all applicable exposure pathways. The dose of a chemical depends on the concentrations in air, water, soil, fish, plants and animals; the amount of time a person is in contact with these media, and the biological characteristics of the person, e.g., ingestion rate, body weight, food preferences.

exposure pathway or route

The route by which a receptor comes into contact with a chemical or physical agent. Examples of exposure pathways include: ingestion of water, food and soil, inhalation of air and dust, and dermal absorption.

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EIA Glossary

exposure ratio (ER) The ratio between the amount of a chemical or chemical group that is taken into the body (the exposure) and the amount of a chemical that can be taken in without it adversely affecting health (the toxicity reference value). No risk is predicted if the exposure ratio is less than or equal to one.

exposure limit A prescribed time where the dose of a chemical is expected to be without effect in sensitive receptors following exposure.

exposure pathway The route by which the chemicals of potential concern can reach receptors.

extinct A species that no longer exists. extirpated A species no longer existing in the wild in Canada, but exists

elsewhere in the world. fate In the context of the study of contaminants, fate refers to the chemical

form of a contaminant when it enters the environment and the compartment of the ecosystem in which that chemical is primarily concentrated, e.g., water or sediments. Fate also includes transport of the chemical within the ecosystem (via water, air or mobile biota) and the potential for food chain accumulation.

fauna An association of animals living in a particular place or at a particular time.

faunal remains Bones and other animal parts found in archaeological sites. feature (in archaeology)

A nonportable product of human workmanship, including structural remains, hearths, stone alignments or other associated objects.

fecundity The most common measure of reproductive potential in fishes determined by the number of eggs in the ovary of a female fish. It is most commonly measured in gravid fish. Fecundity increases with the size of the female.

fen A minerotropic peat-forming wetlands type that receives surface moisture from precipitation and groundwater. Fens are less acidic than bogs, deriving most of their water from groundwater rich in calcium and magnesium.

Fibric Terric Mesisol A soil with the general properties of the Organic order and Mesisol great group, with a terric layer (an unconsolidated mineral layer at least 30 cm thick) beneath the surface layer, as well as a fibric layer.

Fibrisol A great group of soils in the Organic order (according to the Canadian system of soil classification) that are saturated for most of the year. The soils have a dominantly fibric middle tier, or (if a terric, lithic, hydric or cryic contact occurs in the middle tier) middle and surface tiers.

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EIA Glossary

filterable residue Materials in water that pass through a standard-size filter (often 0.45 µm). This is a measure of the “total dissolved solids” (TDS), i.e., chemicals that are dissolved in the water or that are in a particulate form smaller than the filter size. These chemicals are usually salts, such as sodium ions and potassium ions.

filter-feeders Organisms that feed by straining small organisms or organic particles from the water column.

fine (in soils)

The texture modifier for materials consisting of, or containing, large quantities of the fine fractions, particularly silt and clay.

fines A term for silt and clay particles. fine tailings A suspension of fine silts, clays, residual bitumen and water that

forms in the course of bitumen extraction from oil sands using water extraction process.

fish health parameters Parameters used to indicate the health of an individual fish. Parameters can include, for example, short-term response indicators such as changes in liver mixed function oxidase activity and the levels of plasma glucose, protein and lactic acid. Longer-term indicators include internal and external examination of exposed fish, changes in organ characteristics, hematocrit and hemoglobin levels. Parameters can also include challenge tests such as disease resistance and swimming stamina.

fish tainting Abnormal odour and/or flavour detected in the edible fish tissue. Fisheries Act Federal legislation that protects fish habitat from being altered,

disrupted or destroyed by chemical, physical or biological means. R.S., 1985, c. F - 14.

flake A type of chip or spall removed from a piece of material by pressure or percussion. Flakes are removed to deliberately shape an object.

flarks Wet, elongate, depressions in patterned peatlands that develop perpendicular to the direction of dominant water flow.

flint A microcrystalline silicate rock similar to chert. flocculant A chemical that enhances solids removal rate by increasing the

particle size; used to aid in the settling of suspended material and the clarification of water or wastewater.

flocs Small masses formed in a fluid through coagulation, agglomeration or biochemical reaction of fine suspended particles.

floodplain An area of land near rivers or lakes that may be inundated during seasonally high water levels (i.e., floods).

floodplain fringe The portion of the floodplain outside the floodway that is covered by floodwaters during the 100-year recurrence interval flood. It is generally associated with shallow, standing or slowly moving water rather than deep, rapidly flowing water.

July 2005 Page 33

EIA Glossary

flue gas The gaseous combustion product from a furnace. fluid catalytic cracking An oil refining process in which the gas-oil is cracked by a catalyst

bed fluidized by steam and the oil vapours produced by cracking. fluvial deposits All material, past and present, deposited by flowing water. fluvial processes Natural processes involving the formation and evolution of stream

and river channels and their floodplains. FMFN Fort McKay First Nation food chain transfer A process by which materials accumulate in the tissues of lower

trophic level organisms and are passed on to higher trophic level organisms by dietary uptake.

footprint (in mining projects)

The area occupied by surface facilities, resulting in surface disturbance. This term can apply to a central plant, mine areas, associated tailings and water-management areas, and reclamation materials and overburden storage areas.

forage area The area used by animals for hunting or gathering food. forage fish A type of small fish, e.g., brook stickleback or fathead minnow, that

provide food for larger fish. forb Any herbaceous plant, other than a grass, i.e., a weed or a

broadleafed, nonwoody plant. forest A collection of tree stands that occupy a similar space. forest cover type Primary stand groupings based on the percent composition of

coniferous or deciduous species. Forest cover type can be deciduous, coniferous or mixedwood. Also, regenerating stands are included as a forest cover type.

forest fragmentation The process of decreasing the patch size and degree of connectivity of forest stands that make up the forest, thereby increasing the degree of isolation of remaining patches.

forest landscape Forested or formerly forested land not currently developed for non-forest use.

forest management agreement

An agreement with the province that grants a company the rights to manage, grow and harvest timber on a sustained-yield basis.

forest management unit

A defined land area to which a forest management agreement applies.

forest succession The orderly process of change in a forest as one plant community or stand condition is replaced by another, evolving toward the climax type of vegetation.

forested A stand of trees with more than 70 percent canopy cover. fork length The length of a fish measured from the fork of its tail to its snout. formation A geologic unit of distinct rock types that is large enough in scale to

be mappable over a region.

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EIA Glossary

fragmentation The process of breaking into pieces or sections. For example, dividing contiguous tracts of land into smaller and less connected sections through site clearing, e.g., for roads.

FRAGSTATS A spatial pattern analysis software program used to quantify the areal extent and spatial configuration of patches within a landscape. The analysis is done using categorical spatial data, e.g., plant communities.

frazil ice Small, needle-like or thin, flat ice crystals suspended in water and formed when sub-freezing air cools the surface of the water to below the freezing point (supercooling). In rivers with turbulent flow, the supercooled water mixes into a thicker layer and frazil ice forms, suspended in the supercooled layer.

freeze-out An increase in the concentrations of dissolved substances in surface waters during ice formation in the winter.

frequency analysis A statistical procedure involved in interpreting the past record of a hydrological event to occurrences of that event in the future.

fresh water Water with total dissolved solids concentration below 1,000 mg/L. froth A type of air-entrained bitumen with a froth-like appearance that is

the product of the primary extraction step in water extraction processes.

fugitive emission A contaminant substance emitted from any source except those from stacks. Typical sources include gaseous leaks from valves, flanges, drains, volatilization from ponds and lagoons, and open doors and windows. Typical particulate sources include bulk storage areas, open conveyers, construction areas or plant roads.

fur management area Geographic area to which a licence to trap animals applies. furbearer Mammals that have traditionally been trapped or hunted for their fur. game fish A type of large fish, e.g., northern pike or walleye, caught for sport.

Also called sport fish. general head boundary

A boundary condition used to define a relationship between groundwater flow into/out of the model domain and the hydraulic head in a grid cell.

generalist A type of organism that can survive under a wide variety of conditions, and does not specialize to live under any particular set of circumstances.

genetic diversity The range of possible genetic characteristics found within a species and among different species, e.g., variations in hair colour, eye colour and height in humans.

genotoxic Adverse effects that occur at the molecular level, when a chemical interacts directly with genetic material such as DNA.

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EIA Glossary

geographic information system (GIS)

An information system that uses an integrated network of computers to manage data and information concerning geographical locations, plant assets, engineering, maintenance and operational performance.

geomorphic The natural evolution of surface soils and landscape over long periods.

geomorphical processes

The origin and distribution of landforms, with the emphasis on the nature of erosional processes.

geomorphology The science of surface landforms and their interpretation on the basis of geology and climate. That branch of science that deals with the form of the earth, the general configurations of its surface and the changes that take place in the evolution of landforms. The term usually applies to the origins and dynamic morphology (changing structure and form) of the earth’s land surfaces, but it can also include the morphology of the sea floor and the analysis of extraterrestrial terrains. Sometimes included in the field of physical geography, geomorphology is really the geological aspect of the visible landscape.

geotextile A woven or nonwoven material manufactured from synthetic fibres or yarns that’s designed to serve as a continuous membrane between soil and aggregate in a variety of earth structures.

GIS geographic information system glacial outwash Sand and gravel material transported away from a glacier by streams

of meltwater and deposited along a pre-existing valley or plain in a form similar to an alluvial fan.

glacial lake A type of lake formed by ponded glacial meltwater or by damming of a drainage system by glacial activity.

glacial scour The product of erosion by a glacier. glacial till Unsorted and unstratified glacial drift (generally unconsolidated)

deposited directly by a glacier without subsequent reworking by water from the glacier, consisting of a heterogeneous mixture of clay, silt, sand, gravel and boulders (i.e., drift) varying widely in size and shape.

glaciofluvial deposits Material moved by glaciers and subsequently sorted and deposited by streams flowing from the melting ice.

glaciolacustrine The modifier for either lakes fed by melting glaciers or the deposits forming in the lakes.

glaciolacustrine deposits

Material deposited in lake water and later exposed either by lowering the water level or by uplift of the land. These deposits range in texture from sands to clays.

glauconitic Containing glauconite, a blue-green or yellow-green mineral, typically found in shallow marine sedimentary rocks.

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EIA Glossary

gleyed horizon A soil layer formed under poor drainage conditions that results in reducing iron and other elements and in grey colours and mottles.

Gleysol A great group of soils in the Gleysolic order. A Gleysol has a thin (less than eight centimetres) Ah horizon underlain by mottled grey or brownish grey material, or it has no Ah horizon.

Gleysolic The order for soils developed under wet conditions and in a permanent or periodic low-oxygen environment. These soils have low chromas or prominent mottling or both in some horizons. The great group Gleysol, Humic Gleysol and Luvic Gleysol are included in the order.

global positioning system (GPS)

A system of satellites, computers and receivers that is able to determine the latitude and longitude of a receiver on Earth by calculating the time difference for signals from different satellites to reach the receiver.

glycol A group of compounds, such as ethylene glycol and diethylene glycol, used to dehydrate gaseous or liquid hydrocarbons; to inhibit the formation of hydrates; or to cool fluids (liquid or gas), by acting as a heat-transfer medium.

gonads Organs responsible for producing haploid reproductive cells in multi-cellular cells in multi-cellular animals. In the male, these are the testes and in the female, the ovaries.

gonad-somatic index (GSI)

The proportion of reproductive tissue in the body of a fish. It is calculated by dividing the total gonad weight by the total body weight and multiplying the result by 100. It is used as an index of the proportion of growth allocated to reproductive tissues in relation to somatic growth.

graminoid A modifier for grasses or grass-like plants. gran alkalinity Alkalinity in a water sample measured by the gran method, which

does not rely on the presence of inflection points in the titration curve; therefore, it is particularly useful for waters with low alkalinity.

granivore/granivorous Animals that feed on seeds or grains. granular resources Material deposits that have a granulated surface or structure, e.g.,

gravel. graver A small pointed or chisel-like stone tool used for incising or

engraving. Generally made by pressure flaking. grid cell (cell) A small, regular-shaped subregion of a numerical groundwater flow

model domain within which groundwater flow and hydraulic head are represented by simple mathematical equations. The mathematical equations for all grid cells in a model domain are solved at once using a computer to calculate the hydraulic heads and groundwater flows for the entire model domain.

July 2005 Page 37

EIA Glossary

ground-level concentration (GLC)

The ambient concentration (mass per unit volume of air) of a substance predicted to occur at the ground surface. These concentrations are predicted using dispersion models, and are typically reported in micrograms per cubic metre [µg/m³].

ground truth Measures of various properties, such as temperature and land use, that are done on the ground to calibrate observations made from satellites or aircraft.

groundwater That part of the subsurface water that occurs beneath the water table, in soils and geologic formations that are fully saturated.

groundwater divide The term used for a groundwater ridge from which water moves away in both directions.

groundwater flow model

A simplified representation of one or more groundwater flow systems. Numerical groundwater flow models are used to represent the groundwater flow systems in the Regional Study Area.

groundwater level The level below which the rock and subsoil, to unknown depths, are saturated.

groundwater monitoring

The process of monitoring subsurface water quality, water level or both, through a well.

groundwater regime Water below the land surface in a zone of saturation. groundwater velocity The speed at which groundwater advances through the ground; the

average linear velocity of the groundwater. guild A set of co-existing species that share a common resource. H+ hydrogen ion ha hectare habitat The area where an animal or plant naturally or normally lives and

grows, e.g., stream habitat or forest habitat. habitat alienation The loss of habitat effectiveness as a result of sensory disturbances

from human activities at disturbed sites. habitat effectiveness The physical characteristics associated with the suitability of a habitat

and, the ability of a habitat to be used by wildlife. The effectiveness of a habitat can be decreased through visual, auditory, or olfactory disturbance even though the physical characteristics of the habitat remain unchanged.

habitat fragmentation Occurs when extensive, continuous tracts of habitat are reduced by habitat loss to dispersed and usually smaller patches of habitat. Generally reduces the total amount of available habitat and reduces remaining habitat into smaller, more isolated patches.

habitat generalist Wildlife species that can survive and reproduce in a variety of habitat types, e.g., red-backed vole.

habitat patches Isolated patches of habitat.

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EIA Glossary

habitat specialist Wildlife species that is dependent on a few habitat types for survival and reproduction, e.g., Cape May warbler.

habitat suitability index (HSI)

A method of evaluating habitat quality based on species-specific habitat parameters that describe food and cover characteristics.

habitat unit (HU) Generally, used in Habitat Suitability Index models. A habitat is ranked in regards to its suitability for a particular wildlife species. This ranking is then multiplied by the area (ha) of the particular habitat type to give the number of habitat units (HU) available to the wildlife species in question.

half life The time required for half of a given material to radioactively decay. hardness (for water) Calculated mainly from the calcium and magnesium concentrations in

water; originally developed as a measure of the capacity of water to precipitate soap. The hardness of water is environmentally important since it is inversely related to the toxicity of some metals, e.g., copper, nickel, lead, cadmium, chromium, silver and zinc.

hazard A condition that presents a source of danger or has the potential to create an unwanted and unintended effect on people’s safety or health, on property or the environment.

head The energy, either kinetic or potential, possessed by each unit weight of a liquid; expressed as the vertical height through which a unit weight would have to fall to release the average energy possessed. It is used in various compound terms such as pressure head, velocity head and loss of head.

headwater(s) The source and upper reaches of a stream; also the upper reaches of a reservoir. The water upstream from a structure or point on a stream. The small streams that come together to form a river. Also any and all parts of a river basin except the mainstrem river and main tributaries.

health effect endpoint A measurable biological response that could compromise the health of a human receptor, which is used as a point of reference for assessing exposure to a particular chemical.

hearth A fireplace. hepatotoxicity The quality or condition of being toxic or destructive to the liver. herb Tender plant, lacking woody stems, usually small or low; it can be

annual or perennial, broadleaf (forb) or graminoid (grass). herbaceous A modifier for a nonwoody plant or herb. herbivory The state or condition of feeding on plants. heritage resources Any tangible or intangible product of human or natural history that

might have scientific, educational, aesthetic, cultural, or social meaning or value for present or future generations.

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EIA Glossary

heterogeneity Consisting of parts that are unlike each other. For example, the variety and abundance of ecological units, e.g., ecosite phases and wetlands types, comprising a landscape mosiac.

hexane A water-insoluble, toxic, flammable, colourless liquid with a faint aroma. Forms include n-hexane, a straight-chain compound used as a solvent, paint diluent, alcohol denaturant and polymerization-reaction medium; isohexane, a mixture of hexame isomers used as a solvent and freezing-point depressant; and neohexane.

hibernacula A sheltered area in which hibernating animals spend the winter. It might be communal where several individuals of the same species share the site, e.g., Canadian toads, single where a lone individual uses the site, e.g., male bear, or family where a family unit shares the site, e.g., female bear with cubs.

HIS Habitat Suitability Index histology/histological The microscopic study of tissues. historic (in archaeology)

The period after time of contact between indigenous people and Europeans.

historic resource A legal designation specified in the Historical Resources Act (Alberta Legislature 2000) that is any work of nature or man that is primarily of value for its paleontological, archaeological, prehistoric, historic, cultural, natural, scientific or aesthetic interest including, but not limited to, a paleontological, archaeological, prehistoric, historic or natural site, structure or object.

Historical Resources Impact Assessment (HRIA)

A legal designation in the Province of Alberta for a type of assessment intended to determine the impact potential of a development project on the historic resource sites in the development footprint. Historical Resources Impact Assessments might be done for archaeological or paleontological resources, or both. The HRIA recommends mitigation measures to reduce or avoid anticipated impacts, and are done under an archaeological investigation permit issued by Heritage Resource Management Branch of Alberta Community Development.

historical/heritage resources

Works of nature or of man, valued for their palaeontological, archaeological, prehistoric, historic, cultural, natural, scientific or aesthetic interest.

home range The area within which an animal normally lives. horizon (in soils)

A soil layer that’s distinguishable from adjacent layers by either: • characteristic physical properties, e.g., structure, colour or texture • chemical composition, including content of organic matter or

degree of acidity or alkalinity Horizons are generally referred to by a capital letter, with or without a number, e.g., A horizon or A2 horizon.

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EIA Glossary

horizontal stand A stand with a structure that influences polygons by having two or more significant and observable strata, but one that is too small to stratify due to minimum polygon size restrictions.

HUs habitat units human health risk assessment

The process of defining and quantifying risks and determining the acceptability of those risks to human life.

humic layer A layer of highly decomposed organic soil material containing little fibre.

humification The process by which organic matter decomposes to form humus. In humus, the original structures or shapes can no longer be recognized.

Humisol A great group of soils in the Organic order that are saturated for most of the year. The soils have a dominantly humic middle tier, or (if a terric, lithic, hydric or cryic contact occurs in the middle tier) middle and surface tiers.

hummocky landscape A till deposit composed of knobs and depressions with high local relief.

hydraulic communication

The ability of a geological material to transmit groundwater flow.

hydraulic conductance A measure of the ability of a geological material to convey water. hydraulic conductivity The ability of a geological material to transmit groundwater flow,

usually expressed in units of metres per second (m/s). It is a function of the properties of the liquid transmitted, as well as the geological medium (in contrast to permeability, which is only a function of the geological material).

hydraulic effect The effect produced by water or other liquid in motion. hydraulic gradient The change in hydraulic head or water level over a distance, usually

expressed in metres. For example, a hydraulic gradient of 0.01 indicates a one-metre drop in water level over a distance of 100 m. The hydraulic gradient is the driving force that causes groundwater to flow.

hydraulic head A measure of the elevation and water pressure at a specific location in a porous medium. Hydraulic head is expressed in units of metres and is determined by measuring the elevation of the water level in a well.

hydraulic structure Any structure designed to handle water in any way. This includes retention, conveyance, control, regulation and dissipation of the energy of water.

hydraulics The scientific, technological discipline concerned with the mechanics of fluids, especially liquids.

hydric A modifier for soil conditions in which the water table is at or above the soil surface all year.

July 2005 Page 41

EIA Glossary

hydric layer A layer of water in the control section of organic soils, extending from a depth of not less than 40 cm to more than 160 cm.

hydrocarbon An organic compound of hydrogen and carbon where densities, boiling points and freezing points increase as molecular weights increase. Petroleum is a mixture of many different hydrocarbons.

hydrochemical type A groundwater classification determined according to the relative proportions of major dissolved ions (Ca+2, Na+, K+, Mg+2, Cl-, SO4-2 and HCO3-) within a given sample. Used conceptually to describe the chemical evolution of groundwater from young groundwater low in dissolved solids to older groundwater heavily influenced by mineral dissolution.

hydrogen sulphide (H2S)

A gaseous compound of sulphur and hydrogen commonly found in petroleum that accounts for the foul smell of some petroleum fractions. Hydrogen sulphide in sufficient quantities is extremely poisonous and corrosive. See also sour gas.

hydrocracking A catalytic, high-pressure petroleum refinery process that is flexible enough to produce either high-octane gasoline or aviation jet fuel. The two main reactions are adding hydrogen to petroleum-derived molecules too massive and complex for gasoline, and then cracking them to the required fuels. The catalyst is an acidic solid with a hydrogenating metallic component.

hydrocyclone A device for separating out sand from extraction tailings slurry by imparting a rotating (cyclone) action to the slurry. Water, fine tailings and residual bitumen report to the overflow of the device. Sand flows out the bottom of the device in a dense slurry.

hydrogen A colourless, odourless, tasteless gas, composed of diatomic molecules, used to manufacture ammonia and methanol, for hydrofining, for desulphurization of petroleum products and to reduce metallic oxide ores.

hydrogeological window

The erosional, sedimentional or structural break in geological strata, which allows hydraulic connection between different aquifers.

hydrogeology The scientific discipline dealing with the occurrence of groundwater, its use and its functions.

hydrograph A graphical representation of the stage, flow and characteristics of water with respect to time.

hydrolic gradient The scale from very dry to very wet. Exists along a shoreline from water to upland.

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EIA Glossary

Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF)

A comprehensive, conceptual, continuous watershed simulation model designed to simulate the water quantity and water quality processes that occur in a watershed. The model can reproduce spatial variability by dividing the basin in hydrologically homogeneous land segments and simulating runoff for each land segment independently, using segment-specific meteorologic input data and watershed parameters.

hydrology The scientific discipline that deals with the occurrence, circulation, distribution and properties of the earth’s waters and their reaction with the environment.

hydrometric station A station where measurement of hydrological parameters is performed.

hydrophytic vegetation

A term describing plant life that thrives in wet conditions.

hydrostatic head The force (pressure) exerted by a body of fluid at rest. hydrostratigraphic unit

A formation, part of a formation, or group of formations in which there are similar hydrologic characteristics allowing for grouping into aquifers or confining layers.

hydrotransport The transport of granular materials, e.g., oil sands ore or extraction tailings, by means of a water-based slurry in a pipeline.

hydrotreating A process in which a crude or synthetic oil or oil product is treated under pressure with the addition of hydrogen in the presence of a catalyst to reduce the sulphur and nitrogen content of the oil and otherwise improve the quality of the oil.

hygric A modifier for site condition or microenvironment where soil is wet and free water remains at or within 30 cm of the ground surface most of the year.

hyper-eutrophic Trophic state classification for lakes characterized by high primary productivity and high nutrient inputs (particularly total phosphorus). Hyper-eutrophic lakes are characterized by abundant plant growth, algal blooms and oxygen depletion.

hypolimnion The deep, cold layer of a lake lying below the metalimnion (thermocline) during the time a lake is normally stratified.

hypsometer A device using trigonomic principles to measure height of trees or slope of land. Often called a clinometer or Suunto™.

i.e. id est illuvial horizon A soil layer in which material carried from an overlying layer has

been precipitated from solution or deposited from suspension as a layer of accumulation.

Imperial Oil Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited

July 2005 Page 43

EIA Glossary

incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR)

The increased risk from chemical exposure, above and beyond background cancer risks caused by genetics, lifestyle and other non-chemical factors. Health Canada (2003a) consider cancer risks from chemical exposure to be essentially negligible if the ILCR is less than one in 100,000 (1 x 10-5), i.e., the risk of getting cancer is less than one chance in 100,000 chances.

indeterminate A species for which there is sufficient scientific information to support states designation.

indirect economic impact

Indirect project expenditures, e.g., purchasing materials and services, that result in an increased demand for labour and materials.

indirect employment A term describing employment created by suppliers to a project. indirect income A term describing business and personal income generated by

suppliers to a project. induced economic impact

The effect produced by spending labour income.

induced employment A term describing employment created in the general economy driven by expenditures of people who are directly and indirectly employed by a project.

induced income A term describing business and personal income generated in the general economy from personal expenditures.

induction Response to a biologically active compound — involves new or increased gene expression resulting in enhanced synthesis of a protein. Such induction is commonly determined by measuring increases in protein levels and/or increases in the corresponding enzyme activity. For example, induction of EROD (7-ethoxyresorufin 0-de ethylase) would be determined by measuring increases in cytochrome P4501A protein levels and/or increases in EROD activity.

inductively coupled plasma (atomic emission spectroscopy) (icp) (metals)

This analytical method is an U.S. EPA designated method (Method 6010). The method determines elements within samples of groundwater, aqueous samples, leachates, industrial wastes, soils, sludges, sediments and other solid wastes. Samples require chemical digestion before analysis.

Industry Relations Corporation (IRC)

An organization for several Aboriginal bands in northeastern Alberta that is responsible for liaison with the various industries operating in the region.

infiltration The movement of groundwater or hydrothermal water into rock or soil through joints and pores. Infiltration is the main factor in recharge of groundwater reserves.

influent An inflow, especially a tributary.

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EIA Glossary

infrastructure Basic facilities, such as transportation, communications, power supplies and buildings, which enable an organization, project or community to function.

inhibitor A chemical added to a corrosive environment in small amounts to reduce corrosion rate. The critical concentration of inhibitor must be met or exceeded for the inhibitor to be effective.

inorganics Chemical compounds that do not contain carbon. in situ Also known as “in place”. Refers to methods of extracting deep

deposits of oil sands without removing the groundcover. The in-situ technology in oil sands uses underground wells to recover the resources with less impact to the land, air and water than the traditional oil sands methods.

in-situ recovery A bitumen-recovery method that uses underground extraction wells versus open-pit mines to reach oil-sands reserves.

instream flow needs The riverine flows required for sustaining a desired level of protection of aquatic ecosystems.

integrated light intensity

Summation of solar radiation since sunrise to the clock hour.

integrated resource management (IRM)

A coordinated approach to land and resource management that encourages multiple-use practices.

interim maximum acceptable concentration (IMAC)

Interim maximum acceptable concentration of contaminants for drinking water quality.

interior species A species located only or primarily away from the perimeter of a landscape element.

internal lawn A type of vegetation pattern produced by thawing and collapsing of a small permafrost mound in a larger nonpermafrost peatland.

interspersion The percentage of map units containing categories different from the map unit surrounding it.

interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI)

A measure of the dispersion and interspersion of patches in the landscape. It is a true landscape-level index that is computed based on the probabilities of a patch belonging to a class and its neighbours belonging to another.

interstitial A modifier for rock pores filled by minerals. intra-orebody aquifers Isolated water-saturated sand bodies, typically a few metres thick and

up to a few tens of metres long, occurring within the oil sands. invasive species A term describing species that move into a habitat and reproduce so

aggressively that indigenous species are displaced or existing community structures are changed.

July 2005 Page 45

EIA Glossary

inversion An atmospheric condition where temperatures increase with height above the ground. During inversion conditions, the vertical mixing of emissions is restricted.

invertebrate drift Collectively, stream invertebrates (almost wholly the aquatic larval stages of insects) that voluntarily or accidentally leave the substrate to move or float with the current, as well as terrestrial invertebrates that drop into the stream. Also, any detrital material transported in the water current.

ion A chemical term for an isolated electron or positron or an atom or molecule that by loss or gain of one or more electrons has acquired a net electrical charge.

ion exchange A chemical process in which mobile-hydrated ions of a solid are exchanged for ions of like charge in a solution. The ion-exchange process is used to soften or demineralize water or purify chemicals.

ionic load The total mass of charged molecules (ions) dissolved in a volume of water.

irritant chemical A type of chemical that causes irritation at the site of contact, e.g., skin, nasal. Such chemicals produce local adverse effects, and do not produce effects in areas away from the site of contact. Examples of irritant chemicals include carbon disulphide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and carbonyl sulphide.

isolated (artifact) find A location that consists of one artifact only, either in a surface or buried context.

isopach map A geological document of subsurface strata showing the various thicknesses of a given formation underlying an area.

isopleth A line drawn on a map connecting points having the same numerical value of some variable.

kame A low, long, steep-sided landform (mound) of glacial drift, commonly stratified sand and gravel, deposited as an alluvial fan or delta at the terminal margin of a melting glacier.

karst topography The landscape layer that forms over limestone, dolomite or gypsum and is characterized by sinkholes, caves and underground drainage.

karstification The formation of karst features by the solutional, and sometimes mechanical, action of water in a region of limestone, gypsum or other bedrock.

keq kiloequivalent keq H+/ha/a kiloequivalent hydrogen ion per hectare per year kerogen Fossilized insoluble organic material found in sedimentary rocks,

usually in shales; converted to petroleum products by distillation.

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EIA Glossary

ketone Hydrocarbon chain compound associated with the > C=O two single carbon bonds to other chain-like hydrocarbons, e.g., acetone, CH3-CO-CH3.

kettle A small hollow or depression formed in glacial deposits when outwash was deposited around a residual block or ice that later melted.

key indicator resources (KIRs)

Environmental attributes or components identified as a result of a social scoping exercise as having legal, scientific, cultural, economic or aesthetic value.

keystone species A species that is of particular importance to community integrity and function, without which significant changes to the community would occur.

kick sampling Sampling of the streambed using a small mesh net with a long handle. The net is placed against the streambed and the substrate is disturbed (kicked) upstream of the net to dislodge fish eggs, which float down into the net.

kilopascal (kPa) A metric measure that equals one thousand times (kilo) the force of one newton acting on the area of one square metre (6.89 kPa equals 1 pound per square inch).

KIRs key indicator resources Kjeldahl method A quantitative analysis of organic compounds to determine nitrogen

content by interaction with concentrated sulphuric acid. Ammonia is distilled from the NH4SO4 formed.

km kilometre km2 square kilometre lacustrine Relating to a lake. lacustrine deposits Sedimentary material laid down in a lake environment. Land Status Automated System (LSAS)

The Alberta government’s database of all surface and mineral dispositions on provincial Crown land.

land capability The ability of land to support a given use, based on an evaluation of the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the land, including topography, drainage, hydrology, soils and vegetation.

landform A physical, recognizable, naturally formed feature of land, having a characteristic shape and produced by natural causes. Landforms include major forms such as plains, mountains or plateaus, and minor forms such as hills, valleys or alluvial fans.

Landsat A specific satellite or series of satellites used for earth resource remote sensing. Satellite data can be converted to visual images for resource analysis and planning.

landscape A heterogeneous land area with interacting ecosysems.

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EIA Glossary

landscape composition All the types of stands or patches present across a given area of land. landscape connectivity A measure of the probability that individuals are capable of moving

across a landscape and colonizing suitable habitat patches within their dispersal range.

landscape diversity The size, shape and connectivity of different ecosystems across a large area.

landscape ecology The study of the structure, function and change in a heterogeneous land area composed of interacting ecosystems.

landscape structure The spatial relations among a landscape’s component parts including composition; the presence and amount of each patch type without being spatially explicit; and landscape configuration, the physical distribution or spatial character of patches within a landscape.

LCU land capability unit leachate A product formed by leaching. leaching The process of dissolving out soluble constituents from rock by

percolating water. leakage The flow of water from one hydrogeological unit to another. It can be

natural or anthropogenic. leakance A property of a leaky layer. Expressed as ^K’ divided by b’, where K’

refers to the hydraulic conductivity of the leaky layer confirming an aquifer in units of length/time and b’ refers to the thickness of the leaky layer in units of length.

lean oil sands Oil bearing sands that do not have a high enough saturation of oil to make extraction of them economically feasible.

leave area An area of standing timber retained among areas of logging activity to satisfy management objectives, such as seed source, wildlife habitat or landscape management constraints.

lens (in geology) A deposit, thick in the middle and thinning out toward the edges. lentic A modifier in ecology for still water, such as lakes, reservoirs, ponds

and bogs. Lentic systems show pronounced vertical gradients in light, temperature and dissolved gases.

lenticular (fen)

A modifier for lense-shaped, and convex on both sides.

Lesions Pathological change in a body tissue. lethal Causing death by direct action. LFH Litter, funic, humic LFH layer The leaf litter layer, consisting of litter, fumic, humic (forest-floor

materials).

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EIA Glossary

LFH horizon Three types — L, F and H — of organic soil layers developed from partially decomposed leaves, twigs and woody materials, with or without the minor component of mosses.

linear corridor Roads, seismic lines, pipelines and electrical transmission lines, or other long, narrow disturbances.

limnetic A modifier in ecology for the pelagic region (open part) of a body of fresh water.

limnology A scientific discipline relating to the life and conditions for life in lakes, ponds and streams.

linkage (in impact assessments)

The term used for the relationship between a cause and effect in an impact model. Linkages are illustrated in pathway diagrams as arrows between boxes.

lipid One of a large variety of organic fats or fat-like compounds, including waxes, steroids, phospholipids and carotenes. Refers to substances that can be extracted from living matter using hydrocarbon solvents. They serve several functions in the body, such as energy storage and transport, cell membrane structure and chemical messengers.

lithic Of or pertaining to stone. lithic scatter A small concentration of lithic (stone) artifacts on the surface. This

term is usually used when there is insufficient information present to identify the function of the site.

lithology The discipline of studying the physical character (mineral structure and composition) of a rock.

litter layer The uppermost, slightly decayed layer of organic matter on the forest floor.

littoral The modifier for the part of a lake that is the maximum depth rooted aquatic plants can survive (typically 3 m in boreal lakes).

littoral zone The area in a lake that is closest to the shore. It includes the part of the lake bottom, and its overlying water, between the highest water level and the depth where there is enough light (about one percent of the surface light) for rooted aquatic plants and algae to colonize the bottom sediments.

liver somatic index (LSI)

Ratio of liver versus total body weight. Expressed as a percentage of total body weight.

loading rates The amount of deposition, determined by technical analysis, above which there is a specific deleterious ecological effect on a receptor.

loam A mixture of sand, silt and clay. See soil texture. local study area (LSA) The project-specific study area used in the context of impacts within

the development area. lognormal Of, relating to, or being a logarithmic function with a normal

distribution.

July 2005 Page 49

EIA Glossary

long range sustained yield average (LRSYA)

The sum of Mean Annual Increments (MAI) for all forest cover types in a study area. LRSYA is an estimate for the sustained yield or expected annual growth of the coniferous and deciduous fibre in a study area.

lotic An ecology modifier for flowing water, i.e., having a measurable current.

lowest observed adverse effect level (LOAEL)

In toxicity testing, it is the lowest concentration at which adverse effects on the measurement end point are observed.

lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC)

The lowest concentration in a medium that causes an effect that is a statistically significant difference in effect compared to controls.

lowest observed effect level (LOEL)

In toxicity testing, it is the lowest concentration at which effects on the measurement end point are observed.

LSA local study area Luvisolic A geological modifier for soils that have eluvial (Ae) horizons and

eluvial (Bt) horizons in which silicate clay is the main accumulation product. The soils developed under forest or forest-grassland transition in a moderate to cool climate.

LZH linkage zone hazard m metre m3/s (in water measurement)

The standard measure of water flow in rivers, i.e., the volume of water in cubic metres that passes a given point in one second.

macrophytes Plants large enough to be seen by the unaided eye. Aquatic macrophytes are plants that live in or in close proximity to water.

macroterrain A large area of the landscape. MAGIC Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments mainstem The main portion of a watercourse extending continuously upstream

from its mouth, but not including any tributary watercourses. major ions The classification of ions found in water that consist of Ca, Na, K,

Mg, Cl, SO4, HCO3 and CO3. make-up water The water required to supplement recycled produced water for steam

production. Mannville Group The location, about 400 m below the surface, of the Grand Rapids,

Clearwater and McMurray formations containing the major reservoirs for both the Cold Lake and Athabasca oil sands deposits.

marsh An open wetland area dominated by sedges and other monocots that has accumulated less than 40 cm of peat.

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EIA Glossary

mass balance error The difference between the groundwater flows into and out of a model domain. For a numerical groundwater flow model with a perfect solution, the mass balance error is zero (i.e., inflows equal outflows). In practice, small mass balance errors are acceptable.

mass loading The rate of atmospheric deposition (including wet and dry deposition) of a compound over a given area for a set time. Typically expressed in units of kilograms per hectare per year (kg/ha/yr).

matrix The most extensive and most connected landscape element type present, which plays the dominant role in landscape functioning.

mature fine tailings (MFT)

Fine tailings that have dewatered to a level of about 30% solids over a period of about three years after deposition. The rate of consolidation beyond this point is substantially reduced. Mature fine tailings behave like a viscous fluid.

mature forest A forest greater than rotation age with moderate to high canopy closure; a multilayered, multispecies canopy dominated by large overstorey trees; some with broken tops and other decay; numerous large snags and accumulations of downed woody debris.

mature stand A stand of trees for which the annual net rate of growth has peaked. maximum acceptable concentration (MAC)

Maximum acceptable concentration of contaminants for drinking water quality.

maximum depth The maximum depth of the surveyed section of the stream recorded for each pool, riffle and run.

May Be At Risk Any species that “May Be At Risk” of extinction or extirpation and is therefore a candidate for detailed risk assessment.

MCFN Mikisew Cree First Nation mean Centroid value of a data population when viewing its probability

distribution function (or histogram) as a mass distribution. mean annual increment (MAI)

The measure of cubic metres of fibre that accumulates per year from each hectare of forest. Calculated MAI for each stand is summed by forest cover type, and multiplied by its area to derive expected fibre accumulation for that forest cover type.

mean nearest neighbour (MNN)

The mean of the shortest distance, in metres, between each patch and each adjacent patch of the same type.

mean patch fractal dimension (MPFD)

A measure of the complexity of a patch’s shape. It also determines the amount of core area contained in the class.

mean patch size (MPS) The area of an ecosystem type divided by the number of patches of that type. For total undisturbed areas, it is the mean size of the undisturbed patches.

mean proximity index (MPI)

A measure of connectivity of patches within the landscape. The MPI is determined by whether the patch has neighbours of the same type within a specified radius.

July 2005 Page 51

EIA Glossary

media The physical form of the environmental sample under study, e.g., soil, water, air.

median Fifty percent of the data population values are greater than, and 50 percent are less than, the median value.

mercaptan A type of chemical added to natural gas to give it an odour. merchantable forest A forest area with potential to be harvested for production of

lumber/timber or wood pulp. Forests with a timber productivity rating of moderate to good.

merchantable timber The coniferous and deciduous products (trees) that can be sold when cut down.

mesic The modifier for a site condition or microenvironment where soil contains excess water for only short periods.

mesic layer A layer of organic material at a decomposition stage between fibric and humic layers.

Mesisol A great group of soils in the Organic order (according to the Canadian System Of Soil Classification) that are saturated for most of the year. The soils have a dominantly mesic middle tier, or (if a terric, lithic, hydric or cryic contact occurs in the middle tier) middle and surface tiers.

mesotrophic The modifier for lake productivity above oligotrophic (low) and below eutrophic (high), based on measures of nutrients, chlorophyll a and fauna.

metabolism The total of all enzymatic reactions occurring in the cell; a highly coordinated activity of interrelated enzyme systems exchanging matter and energy between the cell and the environment. Metabolism involves both the synthesis and breakdown (catabolism) of individual compounds.

metabolites Organisms alter or change compounds in various ways, such as removing parts of the original or parent compound, or in other cases adding new parts. Then, the parent compound has been metabolized and the newly converted compound is called a metabolite.

metacarpal The digits in an animal’s foot consist of many bone segments The longest segment in a digit is the metacarpal.

metastable A state of being in equilibrium (oscillating around a central position) but susceptible to being diverted to another equilibrium.

metal oxides Compounds of oxygen and metals, such as zinc, that produce toxic vapours.

metamorphic A geological modifier pertaining to the process of metamorphism or to its results.

meteoric water Water derived from the earth’s atmosphere.

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EIA Glossary

meteorological conditions

The atmospheric conditions and weather of a region.

methane (C1) A chief part of natural gas that’s used as a source of methanol, acetylene and carbon monoxide.

method detection limit (DL)

The lowest concentration at which individual measurement results for a specific analyte are statistically different from a blank (that might be zero) with a specified confidence level for a given method and representative matrix.

Métis The term for a person of mixed Aboriginal and European heritage who belongs to a group with identifiable customs and an identity distinct from their Aboriginal or European ancestors.

microbiological control

The method of keeping microorganisms within acceptable limits, such as by adding chlorine or other process chemicals to water to eliminate or control algae, fungi and bacteria.

microclimate The environment comprising temperature, precipitation and wind velocity that exists in a restricted or localized area, site or habitat.

microtine Small mammal species (voles) with the genus name Microtus. microtopographic The fine-scale topography of a site. Microtox™ A toxicity test that includes an assay of light production by a strain of

luminescent bacteria (Photobacterium phosphoreum). mineral soil Soils containing low levels of organic matter. Soils that have evolved

on fluvial, glaciofluvial, lacustrine and morainal parent material. mineralization of groundwater

Synonym of total dissolved solid concentration.

minerotrophic A modifier for the supply of water to vegetation derived from mineral soils or rocks via lakes or rivers as intermediates. It can be eutrophic, mesotrophic or oligotrophic.

mitigation The elimination, reduction, or control of a project’s adverse environmental effects, including restitution for any damage to the environment caused by such effects through replacement, restoration, compensation or other means.

mixed function oxidase (MFO)

A term for reactions catalyzed by the Cytochrome P450 family of enzymes, occurring primarily in the liver. These reactions transform organic chemicals, often altering toxicity of the chemicals.

mixedwood A stand containing both deciduous and coniferous trees. Defined in this report as stands where the primary species is deciduous and the secondary species totals ≥30% coniferous species, or vice-versa. Also, multistory stands of an “A” density with a deciduous primary overstorey species, and the dominant understorey species is coniferous, or vice-versa.

July 2005 Page 53

EIA Glossary

mixing height The height from the ground to the base of an elevated temperature inversion.

mobility (in groundwater quality)

The movement of dissolved compounds in groundwater.

model calibration The trial-and-error process of matching the hydraulic heads and groundwater flows in a numerical groundwater flow model with observed values. An acceptable model calibration depends on the intended use of the numerical model.

model domain The region of interest for a numerical groundwater flow model. modelling A simplified representation of a relationship or system of

relationships. Modelling involves calculation techniques used to make quantitative estimates of an output parameter based on its relationship to input parameters.

moisture regime The available moisture supply for plant growth on a relative scale, assessed through an integration of species composition and soil, and site characteristics.

mole A measure of mass numerically equal to the molecular weight of a substance. It’s often expressed in grams but might be in any mass unit.

mole percent The amount, expressed as a percentage, of pure substance that contains the same number of elementary units as there are atoms of carbon in 12 grams of isotope carbon 12.

monitoring Resolving specific outstanding environmental issues, observing the potential environmental effects of a project, assessing the effectiveness of mitigation measures undertaken, identifying unexpected environmental issues and determining the action required based on the result of these activities.

morainal A modifier for material deposited by glacial ice. moraine A deposit of rocks and debris carried and dropped by a glacier. mottling The formation or presence of mottles in a soil. movement corridor Travel way used by wildlife for daily, seasonal, annual and/or

dispersal movements from one area or habitat to another. multidirectional core A core bearing scars that show that flakes or blades were removed in

more than two directions. multilayered Forest stands where two or three storeys exist and each storey is

significant, clearly observable and evenly distributed. multilayered canopy Forest stands with two or more distinct tree layers in the canopy; also

called multistoreyed stands.

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EIA Glossary

multimedia risk assessment

A risk assessment that evaluates potential long-term effects on human health caused by chemicals or chemical groups in air or water that can also accumulate in soil, plants, animals or fish (includes metals and PAHs, since gaseous compounds would be unlikely to accumulate in media other than air). The combined exposure to chemicals in air, water, soil, plants, animals and fish is evaluated.

multistorey A forest canopy with two or more distinct tree layers. muskeg A thick deposit of partially decayed vegetable matter of wet boreal

regions. This is a North American term generally equivalent to the term peatland, though it can also refer to wooded swamps.

Muskeg Valley Silicified Limestone

A raw material used for many artifacts in the oil sands area of northeastern Alberta. Defined in 2004, it is a variant of the material identified as Beaver River Sandstone. See Beaver River Sandstone.

mycorrhizal Fungi that form symbiotic relationships with plants, resulting in improved nutrient uptake by the plant.

N/A not applicable naphthenic acids Generic name used for all the organic acids present in crude oils. native species Species that are known to be historically present in a given area. nearest neighbour coefficient of variation (NNCV)

A percentage measurement of the variability of mean nearest neighbour (MNN) distance to the actual MNN distance. The number of patches and patch density are required to provide a complete understanding of NNCV.

nearest neighbour standard deviation (NNSD)

A measurement of patch dispersion. A uniform or regular distribution of vegetation units will have a low standard deviation. Clustered or dispersed patches will have a large standard deviation compared to the mean.

nitrogen A colourless, odourless, unreactive gaseous element that forms four-fifths of the earth’s atmosphere and is an essential constituent of proteins, nucleic acids and other biological molecules.

nitrogen oxides (NOX) Oxides of nitrogen comprised of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2).

No Net Loss Plan A working principle that strives to balance unavoidable habitat losses with habitat replacement on a project by project basis so that reductions to fisheries resources due to habitat loss or damage can be prevented

no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL)

In toxicity testing, it is the highest concentration at which no adverse effects on the measurement end point are observed.

no observed effect concentration (NOEC)

The highest concentration in a medium that does not cause a statistically significant difference in effect as compared to controls.

no observed effect level (NOEL)

In toxicity testing, it is the highest concentration at which no effects on the measurement end point are observed.

July 2005 Page 55

EIA Glossary

node Location along a river channel, lake inlet or lake outlet where flows, sediment yield and water quality have been quantified.

noise receptor A dwelling unit that is exposed to noise emissions. nonbenzene aromatic Aromatic benzene ring type hydrocarbon other than benzene itself,

e.g., toluene C6H5CH3. noncarcinogen A chemical that does not cause cancer and has a threshold

concentration, below which adverse effects are unlikely. nonfilterable residue Material in a water sample that does not pass through a standard size

filter (often 0.45 mm). This is considered to represent “total suspended solids” (TSS), i.e., particulate matter suspended in the water column.

nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC)

A measure of the airborne hydrocarbons, less methane.

nonsoil The term for surficial materials that do not meet the definition of soil. It includes unconsolidated materials displaced by such processes as: • dumps of earth fill along a highway under construction • mineral or organic material thinner than 10 cm overlying bedrock • exposed bedrock • unconsolidated material covered by more than 60 cm of water all

year • organic material thinner than 40 cm overlying water

nonvascular plant Plants that do not possess conductive tissues, e.g., veins, for the transport of water and food.

Not at Risk A species that has been evaluated and found to be not at risk. NSMWG NOX–SO2 Management Working Group numerical groundwater flow model

A computer-based representation of one or more groundwater flow systems. The numerical model calculates the distribution of hydraulic head and the resulting groundwater flow by subdividing a region of interest (the model domain) into many grid cells, defining the mathematical representations for each cell and solving the resulting set of equations with the computer using specialized techniques. Numerical groundwater flow models are typically used for groundwater flow systems with complex boundary conditions, geometry, or hydrostratigraphy.

nutrients Environmental substances (elements or compounds) such as nitrogen or phosphorus, which are necessary for the growth and development of plants and animals.

observation well A constructed controlled point of access to an aquifer that allows groundwater observations. Small-diameter observation wells are often called piezometers.

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EIA Glossary

Obsidian Volcanic glass that is easily worked into tools and attains a very sharp edge.

ochre Iron oxide or hematite. The colour is generally reddish-brown to yellow. Used as a natural pigment.

odourant Material, usually a compound containing sulphur or mercaptan, that is added to odourless fuel gases to give them a distinctive odour for safety purposes.

oil sands A sand deposit containing a heavy hydrocarbon (bitumen) in the intergranular pore space of sands and fine grained particles. Typical oil sands comprise approximately 11 wt% bitumen, 85% coarse sand (>44 µm) and a fines (<44 µm) fraction, consisting of silts and clays.

old-growth forest An ecosystem distinguished by old trees and related structural attributes. Old growth encompasses the later stages of stand development that typically differ from earlier stages in a variety of characteristics, which can include tree size, accumulations of large dead woody material, number of canopy layers, species, composition and ecosystem function. Old-growth forests are those forested areas where the annual growth equals annual losses, or where the mean annual increment of timber volume equals zero. They can be defined as those stands that are self-regenerating, i.e., having a specific structure that is maintained.

0lfactory Relating to the sense of smell. oligotrophic A modifier for waters that are poor in dissolved nutrients, of low

photosynthetic productivity and rich in dissolved oxygen at all depths. ombrogenous A modifier for an area that receives surface water solely from

precipitation. open canopy Less than 6% tree cover. order (soil) A category in the Canadian System of Soil Classification. Soils in an

order have one or more common characteristics. Organic The order for soils (according to the Canadian System of Soil

Classification) that have developed chiefly from organic deposits. The majority of organic soils are saturated for most of the year, unless artificially drained. The great groups include Fibrisol, Mesisol, Humisol and Folisol.

organic carbon (soil) The amount (percentage by weight) of carbon in organic form in soil materials, determined by the difference between total carbon (determined by dry combustion) and inorganic carbon (determined by acid dissolution).

organic matter Decomposed residual plant material derived from: plant materials deposited on the soil’s surface roots that decay beneath the soil’s surface

July 2005 Page 57

EIA Glossary

organic soil Soils containing high percentages of carbon-containing matter. organics Chemical compounds, naturally occurring or otherwise, which contain

carbon, with the exception of carbon dioxide (CO2) and carbonates e.g., CaCO3.

Orthic Gray Luvisol A soil with the general properties of the Luvisolic order and the Gray Luvisol great group that has well-developed Ae and Bt horizons and usually an organic surface horizon.

OSERN Oil Sands Environmental Research Network outcrop An outcrop is a geologic unit that is exposed at the earth's surface. outlier A data point that falls outside of the statistical distribution defined by

the mean and standard deviation. outwash A glaciofluvial sediment that is deposited by meltwater streams

emanating from a glacier. overburden Loose or unconsolidated geologic material that lies over solid

bedrock. In mining, this includes all material that has to be removed to expose the ore.

overstorey The layer of foliage in a forest that forms the main canopy. overstripping The act of removing more top soil than necessary, e.g., clearing too

big an area, thereby increasing the amount of ground disturbance. overwintering habitat The particular environment or place an organism or species uses

during the winter for feeding and as a refuge. oxidants Chemical compounds that are capable of oxidizing other atmospheric

compounds. PAI potential acid input PVA Population Viability Analysis paleontological site A type of historical resource site that represents the evidence of

extinct and fossil plant and animal communities. paleosol A paleosol is a soil that was formed in the past. Paleosols are usually

buried beneath a layer of sediments and are thus no longer being actively created by soil formation processes like organic decay.

paleotopography Topography that existed during a previous period of the earth’s development.

paleo-valleys A valley of the geologic past, frequently buried under younger sediments.

Paleozoic An era of geologic time, from the end of the Precambrian to the beginning of the Mesozoic, or from about 570 to about 225 million years ago. Also, the rocks deposited during the Paleozoic.

paludification The succession or conversion of upland or mineral wetland ecosystems to peatland through the accumulation of peat.

palynology The study of living and fossil pollen grains and plant spores.

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EIA Glossary

paraconformity An uncertain or obscure unconformity in which no erosion surface is discernible or in which the contact is a simple bedding plane and in which the beds above and below the break are parallel.

parasitism The relation between two different kinds of organisms in which one receives benefits from the other by causing damage to it (usually not fatal damage).

parent material The unconsolidated and weathered mineral or organic material from which the upper horizons of a soil have developed.

particulate contaminants

Substances (dusts, fibres or mists) suspended in air that a person might inhale.

particulates Fine solid materials that remain individually dispersed in gases and stack emissions.

passerine Perching birds, mostly small and living near the ground with feet having four toes arranged to allow for gripping the perch; most are songbirds.

patch An area that is different from the area around it, e.g., vegetation types and nonforested areas. This term is used to recognize that most ecosystems are not homogeneous, but rather exist as a group of patches or ecological islands that are recognizably different from the parts of the ecosystem that surround them but nevertheless interact with them.

patch density (PD) The number of patches per 100 hectares divided by total landscape area. Patch density equals the number of patches of the corresponding patch types (NP) divided by total landscape area, multiplied by 10,000 and 100 (to convert to 100 hectares).

patch richness (PR) A measure of the number of different patch types that occur within a study area or landscape unit within a study area. The patch types used here are vegetation units.

patch size coefficient of variation (PSCV)

The patch size coefficient builds off the mean patch size (MPS) as the variability of patch size relative to the mean. The PSCV is calculated as the standard deviation of patch size divided by the MPS and is thus a relative measure.

pathology The science that deals with the cause and nature of disease or diseased tissues.

patterned fen A type of fen that’s composed of alternating strings (narrow, low peat ridges) and flarks (alternating wet hollows or shallow pools). The strings are oriented perpendicular to the water movement.

peat Unconsolidated soil that consists of undecomposed, or only slightly decomposed, material of which 85 percent or more is organic matter.

peatland An organic wetland with accumulations of more than 40 cm of peat.

July 2005 Page 59

EIA Glossary

pebble core So termed because of its size. These miniature objective pieces will display the full range of reduction processes such as bi-polar and multidirectional flake removal often associated with larger core artifacts.

pelagic A modifier in geology for the deeper part of a lake (10 to 20 m or more), characterized by deposits of mud or ooze and by the absence of aquatic vegetation.

Pelagial Zone Open water portion of a lake. performance assessment

Prediction of a reclaimed lease’s future performance, identifying potential adverse effects with respect to geotechnical, geomorphic and ecosystem sustainability.

permafrost Material that remains below 0°C for more than one year. permeability The ability of a porous medium to transmit a fluid. It is a measure of

the relative ease of fluid flow under unequal pressure and is a function only of the medium.

permissible sound level (PSL)

The maximum sound level that a facility should not exceed at a point 15 m from the nearest or most impacted dwelling unit. The PSL is the sum of the BSL, daytime adjustment, Class A adjustment and Class B adjustment.

permit holder The director of a Historical Resource Impact Assessment. Responsible for the satisfactory completion of all field and laboratory work and author of the technical report.

petrified wood Agatized wood used for the manufacture of stone artifacts. petroleum Crude oil and its products. pH The negative logarithm of hydrogen ion concentration. The pH scale

is generally presented from 1 (most acidic) to 14 (most alkaline). A difference of one pH unit represents a ten-fold change in hydrogen ion concentration.

pH measurement The method of determining the hydrogen-ion concentration in an ionized solution by means of an indicator solution, such as phenolphthalein or a pH meter.

pH (soil reaction) The term for the negative logarithm of the hydrogen-ion activity of a soil. The degree of acidity or alkalinity of a soil as determined by means of glass, quinhydrone or other suitable electrode or indicator at specified moisture content of soil-water ratio and expressed in terms of the pH scale.

pH value The degree of acidity (or alkalinity) of soil or solution. The pH scale is generally presented from 1 (most acidic) to 14 (most alkaline). A difference of one pH unit represents a ten-fold change in hydrogen ion concentration.

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EIA Glossary

phenology The relationship between a periodic biological phenomenon, i.e., flowering, and climatic conditions.

phosphorus The key nutrient influencing plant growth in lakes; total phosphorus includes the amount of phosphorus in solution (reactive) and in particulate form.

phreatic surface Synonym of unconfined groundwater surface. The planar surface between the zone of saturation and the zone of aeration. Also known as the water table.

physiographic The modifier used to describe or classify land areas, or natural processes, based on physiography (physical nature of features), as in physiographic region or province, or physiographic cycle.

physiography A part of physical geography, namely the description and origin of landforms.

physiological Related to function in cells, organs or entire organisms, in accordance with natural processes of life.

phytoplankton A type of small, often microscopic algae that floats passively in the sea or other bodies of water. These organisms photosynthesize and compose the base of the aquatic food chain.

pictograph Designs painted by Aboriginal peoples on natural rock surfaces. Red ochre is the most frequently used pigment.

piezometer An instrument that can be used to measure fluid pressure in the subsurface.

piezometric surface If water level elevations in wells completed in an aquifer are plotted on a map and contoured, the resulting surface described by the contours is known as a potentiometric or piezometric surface.

piscivorous diet Feeding on fish. pit lake A man-made lake used to fill a mine pit area into which tailings can

be discharged. Pit Lakes are typically filled with waters pumped from adjacent rivers.

pixel The basic unit of digital image data. Shortened from “picture element”. The intensity of each pixel corresponds to the average “brightness” measured electronically by the sensor.

plant community A distinct grouping of plant species often associated with a particular set of environment conditions, such as terrain, soil, permafrost and water. Also known as vegetation community.

PM10 Airborne particulate matter with a mean diameter less than 10 µm (microns) in diameter. This represents the fraction of airborne particles that can be inhaled into the upper respiratory tract.

PM2.5 Airborne particulate matter with a mean diameter less than 2.5 µm (microns) in diameter. This represents the fraction of airborne particles that can be inhaled deeply into the pulmonary tissue.

July 2005 Page 61

EIA Glossary

pneumatic piezometer A device used to measure hydrostatic and/or pore pressure in a borehole or engineered structure.

point source An emission source that’s a conventional stack, a flare stack or a process vent. Stacks and vents can range in height from a few metres to more than 100 m.

polishing pond A water pond where final sedimentation takes place before discharge. polyacrylamide A white polyamide related to acrylic acid used in geleiectrophoresis. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)

A hydrocarbon considered to be a highly toxic component of petroleum products. A PAH is composed of at least two fused benzene rings, many of which are potential carcinogens. Toxicity increases along with molecular size and degree of alkylation of the aromatic nucleus.

polygon The spatial area delineated on a map to define one feature unit, e.g., one type of ecosite phase.

pool:run:riffle ratio The ratio of pool: run: riffle based on the percentage of each stream type in the surveyed section of the stream. These habitat types are described as: • pool: a deep area of low current velocity • run: a moderately deep area within the main current • riffle: a shallow area where the water surface is broken into waves

by bed material poor fen A type of fen that supports a low number of indicator species. Poor

fens have a low pH (4.5 to 5.5) and a ground cover dominated by peat mosses.

population (in biology)

A collective word for individuals of the same species that potentially interbreed.

population viability analysis (PVA)

A modelling process that uses estimates of landscape changes, demographic rates and environmental variation to calculate the probability of species extinction within a given period of time and space.

pore (in geology)

The geology term for a small opening, passageway or void within the subsurface material.

porewater Water contained between grains within solid or rock. porosity (in geology)

The ratio of the volume of void space in a rock or sediment to the total volume of the rock or sediment. Usually expressed as a decimal fraction or percent.

postglacial deposits Organic material or sediments that have accumulated since the total disappearance of continental glaciers.

potable water Water that is suitable for drinking.

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potential (in hydrology and hydraulics) potential (in water quality)

Any of several scalar variables, each involving energy as a function of position or condition; of relevance here is the fluid potential of groundwater. A water quality issue or problem identified by a river authority as being a potential problem, or a problem without current supporting data.

potential acid input (PAI)

A composite measure of acidification determined from the relative quantities of deposition from background and industrial emissions of sulphur, nitrogen and base cations.

potential evaporation The maximum amount of water that can be evaporated from a surface, e.g., ground, vegetation.

potentiation An interaction that can be considered a special type of synergism. Potentiation occurs when a substance that is not toxic by itself increases the toxic potency of another substance.

potentiometric surface The level to which water will rise in a well situated in a confined aquifer.

Precambrian Shield Ancient (older than 600 million years) structural units of the earth’s crust that remain relatively unaffected by later mountain-building periods, e.g., the Canadian Shield.

prehistoric The time of human occupation before contact with European populations.

primary decortication flake

First series of flakes removed from a nodule. The dorsal surface of such flakes are covered by cortex and lack any real arris or flake scars on the dorsal side. Removed by percussion or pressure technique.

primary flakes The first series of flakes removed from a core or nucleus in the process of tool manufacture.

probable effects level Concentration of a chemical in sediment above which adverse effects on an aquatic organism are likely.

probable maximum flood (PMF)

The most severe flood that can be expected from a combination of the most critical meteorological and hydrological conditions that is reasonably possible in the drainage basin. It is used in designing high-risk flood protection works and siting of structures and facilities that must be subject to almost no risk of flooding. The probable maximum flood is much larger than the 100-year flood.

probable maximum precipitation (PMP)

The maximum amount of precipitation for a given period that can reasonably be expected to occur in a specific drainage basin.

problem formulation The initial step in a risk assessment that focuses the assessment on the chemicals, receptors and exposure pathways of greatest concern.

productive forest Forests on lands with a capability rating of equal to or greater than three, and stocked with enough trees to meet the standards of a merchantable forest.

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EIA Glossary

productivity (vegetation)

A term that expresses tree growth by site index, which is a measurement of tree growth expressed as height (m) at 50 years breast height.

profile (soil) A vertical section of the soil through all horizons, extending into the parent material.

projectile point An inclusive term for arrow, spear or dart points. Characterized by a symmetrical point, a relatively thin cross-section and some element to allow attachment to the projectile shaft. Flaked stone projectile points are usually classified by their outline form.

propagules Root fragments, seeds and other plant materials that can develop into a plant under the right conditions.

provenience The horizontal and/or vertical position of an artifact in relation to known coordinates.

QA quality assurance QC quality control qualitative analysis Analysis that’s based on best professional judgment. quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC)

A set of practices that ensure the quality of a product or a result. For example, “Good Laboratory Practice” is part of QA/QC in analytical laboratories and involves such things as proper instrument calibration, meticulous glassware cleaning and an accurate sample information system.

quarry site A location where raw stone is removed for use in tool manufacture. Quaternary The most recent geological time, encompassing the last two million

years. quartz crystal Pure silicate rock crystal. Usually perfectly clear. quartzite A granular metamorphic rock consisting essentially of quartz. radiocarbon dating A method of dating materials based on measurement of the

radioactive decay of Carbon 14 in organic materials. Also known as radiometric dating.

raptor A carnivorous (meat-eating) bird; includes eagles, hawks, falcons and owls.

rare plants Rare plants have restricted spatial, ecological and temporal distributions in a variable, or diverse environment.

raster A graphic structure where the data is divided into cells on a grid. An example would be a computer screen where an image is represented by horizontal lines of coloured pixels. Shapes are represented by cells of the same colour or content adjacent to each other.

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EIA Glossary

rating curve A curve showing the relation between the discharge of a guage, meter or other hydraulic structure or instrument and the pertinent hydraulic conditions affecting the discharge, such as pressure, hydrostatic head and velocity of approach.

rearing habitat (in aquatic resources)

The particular environment or place used by young fish for feeding or as a refuge from predators.

receptor The person or organism that receives exposure to a chemical or chemical group.

receptor locations The locations used for those disciplines where impacts must be assessed at a particular site, usually with reference to residences or recreation areas.

recharge–discharge area

Areas that either contribute (recharge) or take away (discharge) to/from the overall volume of groundwater in an aquifer.

recharge–seepage face A boundary condition used to define a relationship between groundwater flow into or out of the model domain and the hydraulic head in a grid cell. It differs from the general head boundary in that the maximum groundwater inflow rate and the maximum hydraulic head are both specified for the recharge-seepage face boundary.

reclamation The restoration of disturbed land to a state of useful capability. Reclamation is the initiation of the process that leads to a sustainable landscape (see definition), including the construction of stable landforms, drainage systems, wetlands, soil reconstruction, addition of nutrients and revegetation. This provides the basis for natural succession to mature ecosystems suitable for a variety of end uses.

reclamation certificate Alberta Environment requires operators to conserve and reclaim specified land and to obtain a reclamation certificate once their site has been successfully reclaimed.

reclamation unit A unique combination of reclamation conditions, namely surface shape, sub-base material, cover material and initial vegetation.

reconstructed soil A soil profile formed by selected placement of suitable overburden materials on reshaped spoils.

recovery test A method of obtaining quantitative information on the hydraulic characteristics of an aquifer, routinely used following a pump test. After pumping has been terminated, the water level will stop dropping and will begin to rise towards its original position. The rise of the water level can be measured as residual drawdowns (i.e., as the difference between the original water level before pumping and the actual water level measured at a given time after pumping is stopped).

redd A hollow in sand or gravel on a riverbed, scooped out as a spawing place by salmon, trout or other fish.

redox A chemistry term meaning a reversible chemical reaction; e.g., one reaction is oxidation and the reverse is reduction.

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EIA Glossary

reference concentration (RfC)

An estimate of a continuous inhalation exposure (in units of µg per m3) to the human population (including sensitive subgroups) that is likely to be without an appreciable risk of adverse effects to human health during a lifetime.

reference dose (RfD) An estimate of a daily oral exposure (in units of mg per kg of body weight per day) to the human population (including sensitive subgroups) that is likely to be without an appreciable risk of adverse effects to human health during a lifetime.

refugia Areas of natural ecosystems within, or next to, a development area from which plants or animals might move back into the development area, or to which animals might move from the development area.

regeneration The natural or artificial process of establishing young trees. Regional Aquatic Monitoring Program (RAMP)

RAMP was established to determine, evaluate and communicate the state of the aquatic environment in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region.

Regional Closure Drainage System

The integrated drainage system in the regionally reclaimed landscape.

Regional Issues Working Group (RIWG)

A group that works to promote the responsible, sustainable development of resources within the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo.

regional study area (RSA)

The cumulative-effects study area. Used in the context of impacts in the larger region, including other projects that might contribute to cumulative effects.

Regional Sustainable Development Strategy (RSDS)

A regulatory framework for balancing development of Alberta’s oil sands resources with protection of the environment.

Rego Gleysol A soil with the general properties of the Gleysolic order and the Gleysol great group that has a gleyed C horizon, with or without an organic surface horizon, and a thin Ah or B horizon.

Regosol Any soil of the azonal order without definite genetic horizons and developing from or on deep, unconsolidated, soft mineral deposits such as sands, loess or glacial drift.

Regosolic A classification in Canada for soils having no horizon development or insufficient development of the A and B horizons to meet the requirements of the other soil orders.

rejects Hard clusters of clays or lean oil sands that do not pass sizing screens in the extraction process and are rejected. Rejects contain residual bitumen and account for a portion of extraction recovery loss.

relative abundance The proportional representation of a species in a sample or a community.

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EIA Glossary

relative humidity The ratio of the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere to the amount necessary for saturation at the same temperature. Relative humidity is expressed in terms of percent and measures the percentage of saturation.

remote sensing Measurement of some property of an object or surface by means other than direct contact; usually refers to the gathering of scientific information about the earth’s surface from great heights and over broad areas, using instruments mounted on aircraft or satellites.

replicate Duplicate analyses of an individual sample. Replicate analyses are used for measuring precision in quality control.

representative sample A small part of a total volume having its physical or chemical characteristics identical to the average characteristics of the total volume.

reproductive success The accomplishment of producing healthy offspring that live to reproduce themselves.

reservoir A subsurface, porous, permeable rock formation in which oil and gas is stored.

residence time The average time for groundwater, or compounds contained in groundwater, to flow through or be contained within a given area or volume of porous media.

residual impacts Effects that remain significant after efforts to reduce the impacts. retouch/resharpening flakes

Varying in size from large to microscopic, these flakes are driven off the lateral edges of a flake by pressure to form a sharp edge (retouch) or to maintain the sharp edge of an existing tool (resharpening).

revegetation The process of providing denuded land with a new cover of plants. reverse osmosis A technique used to remove dissolved solids from water, such as in

desalination, wastewater treatment, or preparation of boiler feedwater. Pressure is applied to the surface of a saline or waste solution, forcing pure water to pass from the solution through a membrane (hollow fibres of cellulose acetate or nylon) that will not pass the ions of dissolved solids.

rich fen A type of fen that supports a high number of indicator species. Rich fens have a high pH (greater than 5.5) and a ground cover dominated by brown mosses. Shagnum can be present.

richness (of a habitat) A measure of the number of species in a biological community. riffle A reach of stream that is characterized by shallow, fast-moving water

broken by the presence of rocks and boulders. riffle habitat An area of shallow rapids where the water flows swiftly over

completely or partially submerged materials to produce surface agitation.

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EIA Glossary

riffle-run-pool A mixture of flows and depth and providing a variety of habitats. Pools are deep with slow water. Riffles are shallow with fast, turbulent water running over rocks. Runs are deep with fast water and little or no turbulence.

riparian Refers to terrain, vegetation or simply a position next to or associated with a stream, flood plain, or standing waterbody.

riparian habitat A vegetation area influenced by groundwater, subirrigation (areas where a high water table reaches or saturates the root zone) or surface water and that provides important habitat for fish and a majority of wildlife species. This vegetation is often a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial habitat.

riparian zones The terrain next to, or associated with a stream, floodplain or standing waterbody.

riprap Large rocks used for erosion control. risk The possibility of injury, loss or environmental incident created by a

hazard. The significance of the risk is determined by the probability of an unwanted incident and the severity of its consequences.

risk analysis Quantification of predictions of magnitudes and probabilities of potential impacts on the health of people, wildlife and/or aquatic biota that might arise from exposure to risk as stated above in “risk”.

risk assessment Process that evaluates the probability of adverse effects that might occur, or are occurring on target organism(s) as a result of exposure to one or more stressors.

risk characterization The process of evaluating the potential risk to a receptor based on comparison of the estimated exposure to the toxicity reference value.

risk management The managerial, decision-making and active hazard control process used to deal with those environmental agents for which risk evaluation has indicated the risk is too high.

risk-based concentration (RBC)

Chemical concentrations in air, soil, water or fish that are likely to be without an appreciable risk of adverse effects to human health during a lifetime. They are calculated from toxicity reference values and typical exposure rates for the various media, e.g., inhalation rates, ingestion rates, and they are compared to predicted concentrations in air, water, soil and/or fish in the chemical screening process of the risk assessment. The risk-based concentrations used in this assessment have been divided by 10 to increase the conservatism in the chemical screening process.

rock alignment Any artificial arrangement of rocks or boulders into rows or other patterns.

rough broken An area having steep slopes and many intermittent drainage channels, but usually covered with vegetation.

RSA regional study area

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EIA Glossary

RSDS Regional Sustainable Development Strategy run habitat The areas of swiftly flowing water, without surface waves, that

approximate uniform flow and in which the slope of water surface is roughly parallel to the overall gradient of the stream reach.

runoff The part of water from rain and snow that flows over land to streams, ponds or other surface water bodies and that does not infiltrate into the ground or evaporate.

runoff coefficient The part of precipitation that’s measured as runoff in streams. safety (or uncertainty) factors

One of several, generally 10-fold, default factors used by regulatory agencies to derive toxicity reference values from experimental toxicity data. The factors are intended to account for (1) variation in susceptibility among the members of the human population; (2) uncertainty in extrapolating animal data to humans (3) uncertainty in extrapolating from data obtained in a study with less-than-lifetime exposure; (4) uncertainty in extrapolating from a LOAEL rather than from a NOAEL; and (5) uncertainty associated with extrapolation when the toxicity information is incomplete.

saline water Water that contains moderate to high concentrations of soluble salts, i.e., mineralization in the range of 10,000 to 100,000 mg/L total dissolved solids.

sand A soil particle between 0.05 and 2 mm in diameter. SARA Species at Risk Act saturation percentage Percent water content where the soil is completely saturated with

water. scale Level of spatial resolution. scouring The process of erosion by water, air or ice. scraper A tool presumably used in scraping, scouring or planing functions.

Most frequently refers to flaked stone artifacts with one or more steep unifacially retouched edge(s).

screening The process of filtering and removal of implausible or unlikely exposure pathways, chemicals or substances, or populations from the risk assessment process to focus the analysis on the chemicals, pathways and populations of greatest concern.

secondary decortication flake

Second series of flakes removed from a nodule by percussion or pressure techniques. Are partially covered by cortex and most commonly exhibit an arris.

secondary extraction A stage in an extraction process to recover additional bitumen following a primary recovery step.

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EIA Glossary

secondary flake Lithic fragment intentionally removed from a core by percussion or pressure techniques. They vary in size and shape with core types and core preparation. All exhibit platforms and/or other definitive removal characteristics.

secure A species that is not “At Risk,” “May Be At Risk” or “Sensitive.” Secure (species) A classification that indicates a species that is not classified as At

Risk, May Be At Risk or Sensitive. Sensitive (species) A classification that indicates a species that is not at risk of extinction

or extirpation but might require special attention or protection to prevent it from becoming at risk.

sediment (1) Soil particles that have been transported from their natural location by wind or water action; particles of sand, soil and minerals that are washed from the land and settle on the bottoms of wetlands and other aquatic habitats. (2) The soil material, both mineral and organic, that is in suspension, is being transported, or has been moved from its site of origin by erosion (by air, water, gravity, or ice) and has come to rest on the earth’s surface. (3) Solid material that is transported by, suspended in, or deposited from water. It originates mostly from disintegrated rocks; it also includes chemical and biochemical precipitates and decomposed organic material, such as humus. The quantity, characteristics and cause of the occurrence of sediment in streams are influenced by environmental factors. Some major factors are degree of slope, length of slope, soil characteristics, land use, and quantity and intensity of precipitation. (4) In the singular, the word is usually applied to material in suspension in water or recently deposited from suspension. In the plural the word is applied to all kinds of deposits from the waters of streams, lakes or seas, and in a more general sense to deposits of wind and ice. Such deposits that have been consolidated are generally called sedimentary rocks. (5) Fragmental or clastic mineral particles derived from soil, alluvial and rock materials by processes of erosion, and transported by water, wind, ice and gravity. A special kind of sediment is generated by precipitation of solids from solution (i.e., calcium carbonate, iron oxides). Excluded from the definition are vegetation, wood, bacterial and algal slimes, extraneous light-weight artificially made substances such as trash, plastics, flue ash, dyes and semisolids.

sediment load (1) The soil particles transported through a channel by stream flow. (2) The total sediment, including bedload plus suspended sediment load, is the sediment being moved by flowing water in a stream at a specified cross-section.

sediment sampling A field procedure relating to a method for determining the configuration of sediments.

sediment transport Transport rate of soil particles through a channel by stream flow.

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EIA Glossary

sediment yield The amount of sediment transported by a stream system that might be measurable at a particular location. Usually expressed in volume or weight per unit of time.

sedimentary rock A rock composed of materials that were transported to their present position by water or wind.

sedimentation The process of deposition of suspended matter carried by water, waste water or other liquids and deposition by gravity. It’s usually accomplished by reducing the velocity of the liquid below the point at which it can transport the suspended material.

sediments Solid fragments of inorganic or organic material that fall out of suspension in water, wastewater, or other liquid.

seep (in geology)

An area, generally small, where water or another liquid, such as oil, percolates slowly to the land surface.

seepage Slow water movement in subsurface. Flow of water from man-made retaining structures. A spot or zone, where water oozes from the ground, often forming the source of a small spring.

semi-quantitative assessment

The weight of evidence approach used in assessing risks to particulate matter. It is only semi-quantitative because a numerical value cannot be calculated and used to calculate risk.

sensitive Any species that is not at risk of extinction or extirpation but might require special attention or protection to prevent it from becoming at risk.

sensory disturbance Visual, auditory, or olfactory stimulus that creates a negative response in wildlife species.

separation cells Large, cylindrical open-top vessels that are used as the primary extraction device in water extraction process. Bitumen is recovered from the top of the vessel. Tailings are removed from the bottom.

seral community One of a sequence of communities in the development stages towards a climax community.

seral stage A stage of plant community development during ecological succession ranging from bare ground to a stable state.

settlement area The main area where an Aboriginal group traditionally lived and pursued their livelihood. Rights and benefits defined by the final agreement, such as rights to hunt and fish, or economic benefits, such as consultation on exploration and development, that might extend to the whole settlement area.

seven-day 10-year low flow (7Q10)

The period of lowest average stream flow during a seven-day interval that is expected to occur once every 10 years.

SEWG Sustainable Ecosystems Working Group shale A laminated rock with greater than 67 percent clay minerals.

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EIA Glossary

shallow open water A type of nonpeat-accumulating wetland characterized by aquatic processes confined to less than 2 m deep at midsummer. These wetlands have submergent to floating vegetation, and are transitional to truly aquatic ecosystems.

Shannon’s Evenness Index (SHEI)

Distribution of area among or within patch types in the landscape.

Shannon-Wiener Index

A diversity measure based on information theory, a measure of order (or disorder) within a particular system. The Shannon-Wiener index provides a measure of the degree of complexity in a system from low (0) to high (5).

SHOVEL TEST A subsurface test approximately 40 to 50 cm on a side excavated by hand to determine the presence/absence of buried cultural materials.

silt A type of rock fragment with a diameter between 0.002 and 0.06 mm. silviculture The science and practice of controlling the establishment,

composition and growth of the vegetation in forest stands. It includes the control or production of stand structures such as snags and down logs, in addition to live vegetation.

sinkhole A closed surface landform (depression) in regions of karst topography produced by the subsurface limestone geology or the collapse of cavern roofs.

sinuosity The ratio of the thalweg length (i.e., the line connecting the deepest points along a stream) to valley length, for a specific reach of a river or stream system. This is, in essence, a ratio of the stream’s actual “running” length to its down-gradient length.

site (in archaeology))

The location of archaeological or paleontological remains.

slope factor (SF) An upper bound, approximating a 95% confidence limit, on the increased cancer risk from a lifetime exposure to a chemical. This estimate is usually expressed in units of proportion (of a population) affected per mg/kg/day.

slump Small, shallow slope failure involving relocation of surficial soil on a slope without risk to the overall stability of the facility.

slump area Slopes subject to regular mass-wasting events characterized by movement (slow or rapid) of a mass of soil and/or rock.

SMART Simulation Model for Acidification’s Regional Trends

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EIA Glossary

snag A naturally occurring, standing dead or dying tree that plays an important role in providing habitat for a variety of forest-dwelling species. Wildlife use snags for cavity nesting, communal nursery sites, roosting, foraging, hunting or perching. Small-diameter snags are adequate for some species, while large-diameter snags are required by other species and endure longer. Providing snags in managed forests is a very important stand management practice for maintaining biodiversity.

snag density The density level of snags (i.e., stems/ha) provides an index for biodiversity in a forested environment.

snye A side channel of a river on non-flowing water connected to a flowing river channel only at its downstream end, generally formed in a side channel of a river or behind a peninsula (bar).

SO2 sulphur dioxide sodic A modifier for soils with high concentrations of exchangeable

sodium. sodium adsorption ratio (SAR)

Concentrations of sodium, calcium and magnesium ions in a solution.

soil The unconsolidated material on the immediate surface of the earth that serves as a natural medium for the growth of land plants.

soil amendment A change to soil properties by adding substances, such as lime, gypsum or sawdust, to make the soil more suitable for plant growth or any substance used for this purpose. Fertilizers constitute a special group of soil amendments.

soil capability The nature and degree of limitations imposed by the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of a soil unit for forest productivity.

soil map A map showing the distribution of soil types or other soil mapping units relative to the prominent physical and cultural features of the earth’s surface.

soil moisture The amount of water contained in the soil. soil moisture regime A term describing the available moisture supply for plant growth on a

relative scale. It is assessed by integrating species composition, and soil and site characteristics. Moisture regime ranges from very dry to wet.

soil nutrient regime The amount of essential nutrients available for plant growth. Nutrient regime is determined by integrating several environmental and biotic parameters. Soil nutrient regime ranges from very poor to very rich.

soil profile A vertical section of the soil through all its horizons and extending into the parent material.

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EIA Glossary

soil series A conceptual class that has defined limits of soil properties, including: • horizon depth and expression • colour • texture • structure • consistence • stoniness • salinity • pH • soil drainage A soil series is a specified soil subgroup on a particular parent material. In soil mapping, the names of the dominant soil series are often used to name the map units.

soil structure The combination or arrangement of primary soil particles into secondary particles, units or peds. These secondary units can be, but usually are not, arranged in the profile in a distinctive and characteristic pattern. Secondary units are characterized and classified on the basis of size, shape and degree of distinctiveness into classes, types and grades. Common terms for structure are: single grain, amorphous, blocky, subangular blocky, granular, play, prismatic and columnar.

soil survey The systematic examination, description, classification and mapping of soils in an area. Soil surveys are ranked according to the type and intensity of field examination.

soil type A functional taxonomic unit used to stratify soils based on soil moisture regime, effective soil texture, organic matter, thickness and soil depth. In ecosite classification, soil type is more general than soil series.

soil unit A defined and named repetitive grouping of soil bodies occurring together in an individual and natural characteristic pattern over the soil landscape. The attributes of a soil unit vary within more or less narrow limits that are determined by the intensity of the soil survey and its objectives, such as land use planning and management requirements. A soil unit is conceptual and comprises all map delineations with the same name.

solar radiation The principal portion of the solar spectrum that spans from approximately 300 nanometres (nm) to 4,000 nm in the electromagnetic spectrum. It is measured in W/m2, which is radiation energy per second per unit area.

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EIA Glossary

Solonetzic An order of soils developed mainly under grass or grass-forest vegetative cover in semiarid to subhumid climates. The soils have a stained brownish solonetzic B (Bnt or Bn) horizon and a saline C horizon. The surface can be one or more of Ap, Ah, or Ae horizons.

solubility The degree to which a substance is soluble. songbird Perching birds, e.g., warblers, sparrows, swallows, chickadees,

thrushes, kinglets. sorbent material A material that can provide a sorbent function, such as adsorption,

absorption or desorption. sour water Water that has been in contact with oil in a processing operation. Sour

water might contain traces of hydrocarbons, hydrogen sulphide, ammonia and other compounds.

spatial Relates to definition and consideration of space in the EIA. The spatial boundaries define the area considered in the assessment.

spawning habitat A particular type of area where a fish species chooses to reproduce. Preferred habitat (substrate, water flow, temperature) varies from species to species.

Special Concern (Vulnerable)

A species of special concern because of characteristics that make it particularly sensitive to human activities or natural events.

species A group of organisms that actually or potentially interbreed and are reproductively isolated from all other such groups or a taxonomic grouping of genetically and morphologically similar individuals. Also the classification below genus.

species abundance The number of individuals of a particular species within a biological community, e.g., habitat.

species composition A term that refers to the species found in the sampling area. species distribution A location where the various species in an ecosystem are found at any

given time. Species distribution varies with season. species diversity A description of a biological community that includes both the

number of species and their relative abundance. Provides a measure of the variation in the number of species in a region, depending on the variety of habitats and resources within habitats, and in part, on the degree of specialization of species to particular habitats and resources.

species evenness A measure of equitability calculated to incorporate the sum of the proportional contributions of an individual species to the total population of a community.

species richness The number of different species occupying a given area. specified head cell A grid cell with a specified value of hydraulic head. sport/game fish Large fish caught for food or sport, e.g., northern pike, Arctic

grayling.

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EIA Glossary

spring A place where water flows from rock or soil upon the land or into a body of surface water.

spring breakup The time of year when the temperature rises sufficiently to thaw ice, causing it to break up in rivers and allowing them to become navigable.

stability (atmospheric)

A measure of the atmosphere’s ability to disperse emissions. Stable atmospheric conditions cause a poor dispersion of plumes, increasing emission concentrations. Unstable conditions promote plume dispersion, resulting in lower emission concentrations.

stability class (in wind measurement)

A method of classifying the level of turbulence in the atmosphere. Paquill-Gifford (PG) stability class ranges are: • unstable (Class A, B and C), which can occur during the daytime • neutral (Class D), which can occur day or night • stable (Class E and F), which can occur at night

stack emissions Substances discharged into the atmosphere through a flare stack. staging birds/areas Refers to key locations, often wetlands, along their migratory routes

where birds concentrate in huge numbers to replenish the body fat and energy reserves needed for their migration.

stagnation air flow condition

A meteorological condition characterized by low wind speeds that tend to be disorganized.

stand A group of trees occupying a specific area and sufficiently uniform in composition, age, arrangement and condition so that it is distinguishable from trees in adjoining areas.

stand age The number of years since a stand experienced a stand-replacing disturbance event, e.g., fire, logging.

stand density The number and size of trees on a forest site. standard deviation (Sd)

A measure of the variability or spread of the measurements about the mean.

standpipe A device consisting of a perforated/slotted pipe, often used in the past to measure depth to groundwater surface at shallow depths.

steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD)

An in-situ oil sands recovery technique that involves the use of two horizontal wells, one to inject steam and a second to produce the bitumen.

stem The base of a particularly old style of projectile point. These spear points do not have notches but, instead, have a tongue-like base that fits into a hole or slot at the end of a spear shaft. The stem can be narrower than the blade of the projectile point.

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EIA Glossary

stochastic A risk assessment approach that is typically the second phase in the risk assessment process. Also referred to as a probabilistic approach, it involves assessing risk using probability distributions to describe exposure parameters. Thus, rather than using a single point estimate value for exposure parameters, a range of values is used.

storage coefficient The storage coefficient and the specific yield are both defined as the volume of water released or stored per unit surface area of the aquifer per unit change in the component of head normal to that surface. Both are designated by the symbol S and are dimensionless. The storage coefficient refers only to the confined parts of an aquifer and depends on the elasticity of the aquifer material and the fluid. It typically has an order of magnitude of 10-4 to 10-6. The specific yield refers to the unconfined parts of an aquifer. In practice, it can be considered to equal the effective porosity or drainable pore space because in unconfined aquifers the effects of the elasticity of aquifer material and fluid are generally negligible. It should be kept in mind that small pores do not contribute to the effective pore space because in small pores the retention forces are greater than the weight of the water. For sands, the specific yield can be in the order of 0.1 to 0.2. In American Literature the terms storage coefficient and specific yield are often used synonymously.

storativity The volume of water an aquifer releases from or takes into storage due to pressure change.

strata (in geology)

A layer of sedimentary rock.

stratify Layering of lakes into two or more non-mixing layers; in summer, typically a layer of warmer, less dense water lies on a cooler, denser layer; in winter, typically a layer of very cold (<4°C), less dense water overlies warmer, denser water (approximately 4°C).

stratigraphy The succession and age of strata of rock and unconsolidated material. Also concerns the form, distribution, lithologic composition, fossil content and other properties of the strata.

stratosphere A layer in the atmosphere about 15 to 45 km above the earth. stream day A measure of time consisting of a 24-hour operating period of a flow-

processing unit in an industrial setting. stream day and calendar day rate

A measure typically used to distinguish between maximum sustainable daily rates (stream day) and average daily rates over a one-year period (calendar day). Forecasts are typically expressed in calendar day rates, while equipment and facilities are typically designed for stream day rates.

July 2005 Page 77

EIA Glossary

stream day rate A measure of a facility’s capacity at the maximum throughput. The equipment and piping is sized to handle this throughput.

stream diversion A change or alteration in the natural course of a watercourse or stream either by removal/redirection of the waterflow or physical alteration to the stream channel.

strings Dry, elongated ridges in patterned peatlands that develop perpendicular to the direction of dominant water flow.

strip mining Mining method in which overburden is first removed from a sedimentary ore such as oil sands, allowing ore to be removed.

strong acids Acids with a high tendency to donate protons or to completely dissociate in natural waters, e.g., H2SO4, HNO3, HCl.

structure (stand structure)

The various horizontal and vertical physical elements of the forest. The physical appearance of canopy and subcanopy trees and snags, shrub and herbaceous layers and downed woody material.

study area The geographic limits within which an impact to a valued social or ecosystem component is likely to be significant.

subcrop A geologic unit that is exposed beneath an overlying geologic layer, usually at an unconformity.

subhydric Water is removed slowly enough to keep the water table at or near the surface for most of the year; organic and gleyed mineral soils are present as well as permanent seepage less than 30 cm below the surface.

subhygric Areas in which the soil is wet for a significant part of the growing season, i.e., a moderate supply of water with less water than hygric, more water than mesic.

submesic Water is removed readily in relation to supply; water is available for moderately short periods following precipitation.

subsidence The process of sinking or settling of the earth’s surface with very little horizontal motion.

subsistence lifestyle The condition of producing a sufficient quantity of goods to sustain one’s own existence or to support one’s household without producing a sufficient surplus for trade.

subsoil The layer of weathered material that underlies the surface soil.

Page 78 July 2005

EIA Glossary

substrate Material in the stream bed. The assemblage of material sizes include: Organic/Silt: organic material and/or fine material <0.006 mm diameter • sand: material 0.06 m to 2.0 mm diameter • small gravel: material 2 to 8 mm diameter • large gravel: material 8 to 32 mm diameter • pebble: material 32 to 64 mm diameter • cobble: material 64 to 256 mm diameter • boulder: material >256 mm diameter.

subxeric Water is removed rapidly in relation to supply; soil is moist for short periods following precipitation.

succession A series of dynamic changes by which one group of organisms succeeds another through stages leading to a climax community.

successional The change in community composition over time following a major disturbance.

successional stage A stage or recognizable condition of a forest community that occurs during its development from bare ground to climax.

sulphur dioxide (SO2) A poisonous and irritating gas that is a product of burning H2S. supervised classification

The image analyst assigns the pixel categories by specifying the various land cover types present in a scene.

surface collection (in archaeology)

An archaeological technique that results in the collection and recording of artifacts from the surface of a site.

surface water All water on the earth’s surface, including fresh and salt water. surficial aquifer A surficial (at or near the surface of the earth) deposit containing

water considered an aquifer. surficial bed material The top 3 to 6 cm of the bed material that is sampled using US Series

Bed-Material Samplers. surficial deposits Uncompacted deposits and soil lying on bedrock or occurring on or

near the earth’s surface. surrogate Refers to the chemical selected to represent a group of related

chemicals. survey (in archaeology)

A system of ground reconnaissance used to determine the archaeological potential of an area and identify site locations.

suspended sediments Particles of matter suspended in the water often originating from a stream or lake bed, that are free to move within the water column of a lake or stream. Measured as the oven dry weight of the solids, in mg/L, after filtration through a standard filter paper.

sustainability The process of managing biological resources, e.g., timber or fish, to ensure replacement by regrowth or reproduction of the part harvested before another harvest occurs.

July 2005 Page 79

EIA Glossary

sustainable development

Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Sustainable Ecosystems Working Group (SEWG)

A task group under the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) that deals with most resource-related issues.

sustainable landscape Ability of landscape (including landforms, drainage, waterbodies and vegetation) to survive extreme events and natural cycles of change, without causing accelerated erosion and environmental impacts much more severe than that of the natural environment.

swamp A forested to shrubby wetland area that has accumulated less than 40 cm of peat.

synergism Two or more toxic substances interact such that the toxicity of the mixture is greater than would be expected if the substances were acting additively or independently. For example, people who use both tobacco and alcohol have a much higher risk of some cancers than would be expected if these two products were acting additively.

synthetic crude oil A mixture of hydrocarbons, similar to crude oil, derived from upgrading bitumen from oil sands.

systemic Refers to the fact that chemicals need to be absorbed and transported to their site of action (i.e., target organ) to produce adverse effects. This is in contrast to locally acting chemicals that produce effects at the site of contact.

tailings A stream resulting from the extraction of a bitumen from oil sands, comprised of water, sands and clays, with minor amounts of residual bitumen.

tailings ponds Man-made impoundment structures required to contain tailings. Tailings ponds are enclosed dykes made with tailings and/or overburden materials to stringent geotechnical standards.

tailings release water Water is expelled from consolidated tailings or non-segregated tails during the course of consolidation. The water is referred to as tailings release water.

tailings sand A sand material that results from removing hydrocarbon from oil sands.

tailings settling pond An artificial impoundment structure to contain tailings. Tailings settling ponds are enclosed by dykes made with tailings and overburden materials to stringent geotechnical standards.

tainting potential Hypothetical parameter that is modelled by converting the tainting threshold release water concentrations from percent release water to tainting potential units (TPUs) using the formula, TPU = 100/TC, where TC equals the threshold concentration for tainting as a percentage diluted in river water.

Page 80 July 2005

EIA Glossary

target organ The biological organ(s) most adversely affected by exposure to a chemical, physical, or biological agent.

taxa A group of organisms of any taxonomic rank, e.g., family, genus, or species.

TEEM Terrestrial Environmental Effects Monitoring Program temporal scale The response time of an exposed receptor or the travel time from the

source to the receptor. Typical temporal scales are: • instantaneous (seconds to minutes) • hourly (short term) • daily (short term) • seasonally (growing season) • annually (chronic low-level exposures) • hourly, daily and annually from the basis of ambient air quality

guidelines terminal moraine A sinuous ridge of unsorted glacial till deposited by a glacier at the

line of its farthest advance. terraced A single step-like form or assemblages of step-like forms where each

form consists of a scarp face and a horizontal or gently inclined surface above it.

Terric Humic Mesisol A soil with the general properties of the Organic order and Mesisol great group that has a fibric upper layer with dominantly mesic middle layers and subdominant humic layers thicker than 25 cm.

terric layer An unconsolidated mineral layer underlying organic soil material. terricolous Living in or on the ground. Tertiary The modifier for a geological time that is the oldest period (70 million

to 2 million years ago) of the Cenozoic Era, extending from the end of the Cretaceous to the beginning of the Quaternary.

July 2005 Page 81

EIA Glossary

texture (soil) • The relative proportions of sand, silt and clay (soil separates). Descriptive terms include:

• sand (S) • loamy sand (LS) • sandy loam (SL) • silt (Si) • silty loam (SiL) • loam (L) • silty clay loam (SiCL) • clay loam (CL) • sandy clay loam (SCL) • silty clay (SiC) • clay (C) • sandy clay (SC) • heavy clay (HC)

thalweg A line extending longitudinally along a watercourse following the deepest portion of the channel.

thermograph A type of thermometer that produces a continuous record of fluctuating temperature.

thermokarst Pock-marked topography in northern regions caused by the collapse of permafrost features.

thinning flake Removed by pressure to rejuvenate the lateral edge of an existing flake. They are characteristically longer than they are wide with a pronounced inward curve to them.

threatened species The term used to describe any indigenous classification (species) of fauna or flora likely to become endangered if the factors affecting its vulnerability aren’t reversed.

threshold concentration

A concentration above which some effect (or response) will be produced and below which it will not.

till Geological material transported and deposited by ice movement (glaciers). Till is characterized as a massive unlayered (unstratified) material, that is unsorted by particle size. It might contain a mixture of clay particles to boulder-sized rock fragments.

timber damage assessment (TDA)

A timber-damage compensation program managed by Alberta Sustainable Resource Development.

timber productivity rating (TPR)

A measure of the potential timber productivity of forest land and nonforested vegetated land based on the height and age of the dominant species. TPR reflects factors affecting tree growth such as soil, topography, climate, elevation and moisture.

Page 82 July 2005

EIA Glossary

topsoil The term for the organo-mineral surface A-horizon or organic surface O horizon. The dark-coloured surface soil materials, e.g., first lift, salvaged for reclamation. First lift materials are usually removed to the depth of the first easily identified colour change, or to a specified depth where colour change is poor, and that contains the soil Ah, Ap, O or Ahe horizon. Other horizons can be included in the first lift if specified.

total alkalinity A measure of the ability of water to resist changes in pH caused by the addition of acids or bases and therefore, the main indicator of susceptibility to acid rain; in natural waters it is due primarily to the presence of bicarbonates, carbonates and to a much lesser extent occasionally borates, silicates and phosphates; it is expressed in units of milligrams per litre (mg/L) of CaCO3 (calcium carbonate). Alkalinity is determined from a discernable inflection point in the measured titration curve.

total core area index (TCAI)

A core area is an interior of a patch type that is within a given distance from the patch edge. This is the distance from a disturbance edge used to represent isolation from disturbance. It is used to represent the central portion of the natural area that is not part of the ecotone.

total daily drift Represents the total number of drifting organisms during one day at a site in the entire stream.

total dissolved solids (TDS)

The total concentration of all dissolved solids found in a water sample.

total edge (TE) A measure of the total length of all patch boundaries. Total edge differs from the total perimeter of a patch because each edge represents the boundary of two patches, whereas perimeter refers to only one patch.

total hydrocarbon (THC)

A measure of all airborne compounds containing only carbon and hydrogen.

total metal The concentration of a metal in an unfiltered sample that is digested in strong nitric acid.

total organic carbon (TOC)

A measure of both dissolved and particulate carbon. TOC is often calculated as the difference between total carbon (TC) and total inorganic carbon (TIC). TOC has a direct relationship with both biochemical and chemical oxygen demands and varies with the composition of organic matter present in the water. Organic matter in soils, aquatic vegetation and aquatic organisms is the major source of organic carbon.

total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH)

Groups of hydrocarbon chemicals derived from a petroleum source.

July 2005 Page 83

EIA Glossary

total sediment load Also referred to as the total load, a term that refers to the total sediment (bed load plus suspended-sediment load) that is in transport. The term needs to be qualified, however, such as “annual suspended-sediment load” or “sand-size suspended-sediment load,” and so on. It is not synonymous with total sediment discharge.

total suspended particulate (TSP)

A measure of the total particulate matter suspended in the air. This represents all airborne particles with a mean diameter less than 30 µm (microns) in diameter.

total suspended solids (TSS)

The amount of suspended substances in a water sample. Solids, found in wastewater or in a stream, which can be removed by filtration. The origin of suspended matter can be artificial or anthropogenic wastes, or natural sources such as silt.

toxic A substance, dose or concentration that is harmful to a living organism.

toxic equivalency factor (TEF)

When assessing groups of chemicals, each chemical within the group is assigned a numerical value, which indicates the toxic potency of that chemical, relative to the surrogate. The TEF is applied to chemical concentrations such that they are adjusted to represent surrogate-equivalent concentrations.

toxicity The inherent potential or capacity of a material to cause adverse effects in a living organism.

toxicity assessment The process of determining the amount (concentration or dose) of a chemical to which a receptor might be exposed without the development of adverse effects.

toxicity reference value (TRV)

For a non-carcinogenic chemical, the maximum acceptable dose (per unit body weight and unit of time) of a chemical that a specified receptor can be exposed to, without the development of adverse effects. For a carcinogenic chemical, the maximum acceptable dose of a chemical to which a receptor can be exposed that would result in an essentially negligible increased cancer risk. Toxicity reference values can include reference concentrations, reference doses, unit risks or slope factors.

traditional environmental (or ecological) knowledge (TEK)

Knowledge and understanding of traditional resource and land use, harvesting and special places.

traditional harvest Activities involving the harvest of traditional resources, such as hunting and trapping, fishing, gathering medicinal plants and travelling to engage in these activities.

traditional knowledge Cultural understanding that’s based on direct observation or information passed on orally from other community members, developed from centuries of experience of living off the land.

Page 84 July 2005

EIA Glossary

traditional land use (TLU)

Activities involving the harvest of traditional resources such as hunting and trapping, fishing, gathering medicinal plants and travelling to engage in these activities. Land use maps document locations where the activities occur or are occuring.

traditional resources Plants, animals and mineral resources that are traditionally used by indigenous populations.

traditional wisdom Information provided by Aboriginal Elders based on their experience. training areas A representative sample site of known cover type used to compile an

interpretation key for image analysis. This can be groundtruthed field data.

trapline The area within which a trapper is registered for the trapping of animals, to harvest furs for sale.

trapper A person occupied in the trapping of furs for sale. transmissivity (in hydrogeology)

The ability of an aquifer to transmit groundwater flow. It is calculated as the product of hydraulic conductivity and aquifer thickness and is usually expressed in units of square metres per second.

transpiration Transpiration is the process by which water is transferred from soil and plant surfaces to the atmosphere.

treaty rights The rights to a continued livelihood granted to an Aboriginal group in the Athabasca region through the signing of one of the adhesions to Treaty 8, initiated in 1899. Treaty rights might include hunting, fishing and harvesting rights, as well as land-use compensation rights and the establishment of reserve lands for each Aboriginal band.

trophic Pertaining to part of a food chain, for example, the primary producers are a trophic level just as tertiary consumers are another trophic level.

trophic state Eutrophication is the process by which lakes are enriched with nutrients, increasing the production of rooted aquatic plants and algae. The extent to which this process has occurred is reflected in a lake’s trophic classification or state: oligotrophic (nutrient poor), mesotrophic (moderately productive) and eutrophic (very productive and fertile).

truck and shovel operation

The process of using large trucks and shovels to obtain ore from the ground.

turbidity A measure of water clarity that relates to the concentrations of suspended material including clay, sand, silt, fine organic and inorganic material and microorganisms. Turbidity limits light penetration and photosynthetic activity, thus reducing the amount of biological production.

TWINSPAN Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis. A technique used to classify bird species and vegetation communities.

July 2005 Page 85

EIA Glossary

Typic Humic Mesisol A soil with the general properties of the Organic order and Mesisol great group that has less than 160 cm of moderately decomposed fen peat with humic layers.

typology The classification of artifacts according to analytical criteria, to determine and define significant trends or variations in time and space.

uncertainty Imperfect knowledge concerning the present or future state of the system under consideration; a component of risk resulting from imperfect knowledge of the degree of hazard or of its spatial and temporal distribution.

unconfined aquifer A saturated geological unit that is not constrained from above and below. Unconfined aquifers occur at or near the ground surface. They are permeable intervals in which the water table forms the upper boundary.

unconformity The geological term for a contact between geological units where a significant gap in the geological time scale exists. The presence of an unconformity indicates a significant period where no deposition occurred between the time of deposition of the geological units above and below the contact. Unconformities are often indicated by an irregular erosion surface formed by erosion.

understorey A foliage layer occurring under and shaded by the main canopy of a forest.

Undetermined (species)

Any species for which insufficient information, knowledge or data is available to reliably evaluate its general status.

undulating Gently sloping hill and hollow with multidirectional slopes. Local relief is generally greater than 1 m.

ungulate Any hoofed, grazing mammal, which is usually also adapted for running.

uniface A stone artifact flaked only on one surface. unit risk (UR) The upper-bound excess lifetime cancer risk estimated to result from

continuous exposure to a chemical at a concentration of 1 µg/m3 in air.

United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)

The U.S. EPA is responsible for implementing the federal laws designed to protect the environment. The U.S. EPA endeavors to accomplish its mission systematically by proper integration of a variety of research, monitoring, standard-setting and enforcement activities. As a complement to its other activities, the U.S. EPA coordinates and supports research and anti-pollution activities of state and local governments, private and public groups, individuals and educational institutions. The U.S. EPA also monitors the operations of other federal agencies with respect to their impact on the environment.

Page 86 July 2005

EIA Glossary

universal transverse mercator (UTM)

A mapping method adopted by the U.S. National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) that comprises a special grid for military use throughout the world. In this grid, the world is divided into 60 north-south zones, each covering a strip six degrees wide in longitude.

upland Terrain with sufficient topographical relief that the communities and processes of the site are not influenced by a surface or near surface water table, and in which riparian vegetation or aquatic processes do not persist.

upgraded product (upgraded crude oil)

Often referred to as synthetic oil, upgraded product is bitumen that has undergone alteration to improve its hydrogen-carbon balance to a lighter specific gravity product. Upgraded crude oil productsinclude: • Oil Sands A, a blend of low sulphur (hydrotreated) naphtha,

kerosene and gas oil • Oil Sands Diesel, hydrotreated kerosene • Oil Sands E, a sour (higher sulpur) blend of coker distillate • Oil Sands Virgin, an uncracked vacuum tower product

upgrader A facility for processing heavy oil or bitumen to light oil products. uplands Areas where the soil is not saturated for extended periods as indicated

by vegetation and soils. uptake The process by which a chemical crosses an absorption barrier and is

absorbed into the body. utilized flake A stone flake used for a tool without deliberate retouch, but exhibiting

use-wear. vacuum tower A vessel used in the petroleum upgrading process that separates the

light high-value petroleum products from the heavy lower-value products. In upgrading facilities such as oil sands, vacuum towers are often used in combination with coking and cracking units.

valley slope An area of land that is lower than the land on either side of it. An elongated depression cut by stream erosion and associated water erosion on its sideslopes (stream valley).

valued ecosystem component (VEC)

Components of an ecosystem (either plant, animal or abiotic feature) considered valuable by various sectors of the public.

variety An individual or group usually fertile within the species to which it belongs, but differing from the species type in some qualities capable of perpetuation.

vascular plant A type of plant, such as grasses or trees, that has a vascular or conductive system.

vector A graphic structure where the data is partitioned into polygons. Shapes are created by drawing a line around data of the same content.

July 2005 Page 87

EIA Glossary

vegetation community A distinct grouping of plant species often associated with a particular set of environmental conditions such as terrain, soil, permafrost and water. Also known as plant community.

viscosity The characteristic of a liquid that determines its resistance to flow. volatile organic compound (VOC)

A compound that includes aldehydes and all of the hydrocarbons except for ethane and methane. VOCs represent the airborne organic compounds likely to undergo or have a role in the chemical transformation of pollutants in the atmosphere.

Vulnerable A species of special concern because of characteristics that make it particularly sensitive to human activities or natural events.

vulnerable species Any indigenous classification (species) of flora or fauna that is particularly at risk, e.g., because of low or declining numbers, occurrence at the fringe of its range or in restricted areas. Not a threatened species.

waste area The area where overburden materials are placed that are surplus to the need of the mine. Also referred to as a “waste dump”.

water balance A measure of water inflows and outflows from a specific location, e.g., aquifer or plant facility.

waterbody A natural geographical landform containing water, e.g., a lake or stream.

water equivalent As relating to snow; the depth of water that would result from melting.

waterfowl staging area Water bodies used by waterfowl to gather, rest and feed before or during migration.

watershed An area bounded peripherally by a divide, draining ultimately to a particular water course or water body.

water table Surface area of groundwater, below which the soil is saturated with water.

water yield Runoff, including groundwater outflow that appears in the stream, plus groundwater outflow that leaves the basin underground. Water yield is the precipitation minus the evapotranspiration.

waterbearing Containing water within the void spaces. WBI Wildlife Biodiversity Index wet deposition The process whereby contaminants are removed from the atmosphere

by precipitation. The precipitation chemistry is defined by the concentrations of various chemical species in the precipitation. These chemical species can result from naturally occurring particulate and gaseous compounds, as well as from pollutant emissions. Wet deposition is expressed in the same units as dry deposition.

Page 88 July 2005

EIA Glossary

wetlands Wetlands are land where the water table is at, near or above the surface or which is saturated for a long enough period to promote such features as wet-altered soils and water tolerant vegetation. Wetlands include organic wetlands or “peatlands,” and mineral wetlands or mineral soil areas that are influenced by excess water but produce little or no peat.

wetted perimeter The part of the perimeter of a stream-channel cross-section that contacts water.

wind direction The direction of the airflow over a given averaging period. The wind direction is expressed between 0 and 360° and gives the direction from which the wind is blowing. For example, 90°E means that the wind is blowing from east to west.

wind speed The measure of airflow expressed in either kilometres per hour (km/h) or metres per second (m/s). NOTE: 1 m/s = 3.6 km/h. Wind speeds generally increase with increasing height above the ground because of reduced frictional effects between the air motion and the surface of the earth.

windrose Graphic pie-type representation of frequencies of wind directions and speeds over a period of time, e.g., one year, for a meteorological station.

WMU wildlife management unit Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA)

The mission of the Wood Buffalo Environmental Association is to monitor and provide accurate, credible, transparent and understandable information on air quality and air related environmental impacts in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo.

wooded A stand of trees with a canopy cover between six percent and 70 percent.

worst case A semi-quantitative term referring to the maximum possible exposure, dose or risk that can conceivably occur, whether or not this exposure, dose, or risk actually occurs or is observed in a specific population. It should refer to a hypothetical situation in which everything that can plausibly happen to maximize exposure, dose, or risk does happen. The worst case can occur in a given population, but since it is usually a very unlikely set of circumstances in most cases, a worst-case estimate will be somewhat higher than what occurs in a specific population.

xeric The modifier for a site condition or microenvironment where soil is dry and precipitation is absorbed almost immediately.

young of the year (YOY)

Fish at age 0, within the first year after hatching.

ZOI zone of influence

July 2005 Page 89

EIA Glossary

zooplankton An ecology term for small, often microscopic animals that float passively in the sea or other bodies of water. This is a diverse group of organisms that includes three major subgroups: rotifers and two subclasses of crustacea — Cladocera and Copepoda.

Page 90 July 2005

Appendix 1:EIA Concordance Table – Cross-Reference of Final Terms of Reference

Table of Contents

Table List

EIA Concordance Table - Cross Reference of Final Terms of Reference.......................................1

July 2005 Page i VOLUME 4

Appendix 1: EIA Concordance Table – Cross-Reference of Final Terms of Reference

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page 1.1 The EIA Report

The purpose of these Terms of Reference is to identify for the public and Imperial Oil Resources (IOR), the information required by federal and provincial government agencies for an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report.

IOR will prepare and submit an EIA report to explain the environmental effects of its Kearl Oil Sands Project (the Project) and other existing and planned activities in the area related to the Project. The EIA report will be prepared in accordance with the requirements prescribed under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (EPEA), and any other federal legislation, which may apply to the Project. It will form part of IOR’s application to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) for approval under the Oil Sands Conservation Act (OSCA).

4 5-9

3 All

All All

1-69 All

1.2 Public Consultation

IOR’s public consultation program will facilitate communication with members of the public and industry who may be affected, directly or indirectly, by the Project and will provide them with an opportunity to participate in the Environmental Assessment process. The EIA report will document the results of the public consultation program (see Section 10) and will provide environmental information to address the issues raised.

1 2

2 2

9 1-5

31-34 1-47

The consultation requirement for the EIA report does not give any party additional rights or status with the EUB or during the EPEA and Water Act (WA) approval processes. Status and rights in those approval processes are determined by the applicable governing legislation.

1.3 Proponent’s Submission IOR is responsible for the preparation of the EIA report and

related applications. The EIA report will be based upon these Terms of Reference and issues raised during the public consultation process. The EIA report will include a glossary of terms and a list of abbreviations to assist the reader in understanding the material presented. The EIA report will include tables that cross-reference the report (subsections) to the EIA Terms of Reference and to any current applications submitted pursuant to the EPEA and WA.

1 1-2 3-9

Appendix A Glossary Glossary

All All All

All All All

2.0 Project Overview Provide a corporate profile clearly outlining the ownership structure of the corporation,

1 1

2 2

2 4

3 15-17

an overview of the Project, 1 2 1-12 1-41

the key environmental, resource management and economic issues that are important for a public interest decision,

1 1

2 2

10 11

35 37

and the results of the Environmental Assessment. 4 3 All 1-69

Identify those responsible for the development, management and operation of the Project.

1 1 1 1

2 2 12 12

2 4 4 5

3 15 11 15

July 2005 Page 1 VOLUME 4

EIA Concordance Table – Cross-Reference of Final Terms of Reference

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page Provide a brief history of IOR’s exploration in the oil sands area.

1 4 2 3-6

3.0 Regulatory and Planning Framework Identify the federal, provincial and municipal legislation, policies, approvals and

1 2 3 9-14

current multi-stakeholder planning initiatives applicable to the review of this Project.

1 2

2 Appendix C

9 All

31-34 1-35

List the major components of the Project that will be applied for and constructed under the EPEA, WA and the Public Lands Act (PLA).

1 2 3 9

Address other regulatory authorizations that exist or will be required for the Project under provincial, municipal and federal government requirements,

1 1

2 Appendix D

3 All

11 All

and describe the schedule and mechanisms IOR will engage to comply with these regulatory processes.

1 2 7 25-27

Discuss the primary focus of each regulatory requirement, such as resource allocation, environmental protection, land use development and the elements of the Project that are subject to that regulation.

1 2 3 9-14

Discuss any regulatory systems that apply to the Project, such as solid waste or air pollution classifications, land use zones, wildlife management areas and forest management areas.

2 2 9 9

7 7 11 11

4 5 10 8

7-10 11-12 45-51 33-37

Provide a summary of the regional, provincial or national objectives, standards or guidelines that have been used in the classification and evaluation of the significance of effects.

5 7 8

2 3 Appendix 3A

2 2 1

16-26 9-10 3-10

3.1 EIA Summary

Provide a summary of the results of the EIA report including: — — — —

the project components and development activities which have the potential to affect the environment;

4 3 2 3

existing conditions in the Study Area, including existing uses of lands, resources and other activities which have potential in combination with proposed development activities, to affect the environment;

4 3 4-23 15-68

the environmental effects which are anticipated; proposed environmental protection plan(s), mitigation measures and monitoring; and residual effects.

4 3 4-23 15-68

Identify the environmental, cultural, and socio-economic impacts of the Project including the regional, temporal, and cumulative effects. Impact significance should be explained in terms of magnitude, extent, duration, frequency and reversibility. Where possible predictions are to be quantified.

4 4

3 3

22 23

65-66 67-68

Include suitable maps, charts and other illustrations to identify the components of the Project, the existing conditions, and the environmental and the socio-economic implications of the development.

4 3 4-23 15-68

Discuss the key environmental issues important for the achievement of sustainable environmental and resource management. Differentiate between emerging issues with uncertainties, issues with important environmental consequences and issues that can be mitigated through available technology and with existing management approaches. Describe how ongoing uncertainties and emerging issues will be addressed.

4 3 1-23 1-69

Page 2 July 2005 VOLUME 4

Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page 4.0 Project Description and Management Plans The scope and detail of the project description information

shall be sufficient to allow quantitative assessment of the environmental consequences. If the scope of information varies among components or phases of the Project, IOR shall provide a rationale demonstrating that the information is sufficient for EIA purposes.

— — — —

Describe the project components, infrastructure and activities. 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 5 6 7 8 9

6 1-5 5-7 2-7 2-6 2-6

21-23 37 11-26 3-33 3-20 3-21

Discuss the alternatives considered, the alternative selection process, the potential effects that activities and infrastructures may have on the environment

1 11 2-13 11-110

and the natural resources to be used for the Project. 1 1 1 1 2 2

4 5 8 10 5 9

3 5 5 3-5 9 5

21 39-45 11-18 5-17 27-36 59-77

Outline the management plans to minimize the discharge of pollutants, manage wastes,

1 1 1 2 2 2 2

7 9 12 3 4 5 7

6 4 6 2-5 1-2 8 1-5

29-33 9-14 30-32 3-11 1-4 21-23 1-12

reclaim disturbed lands and waterbodies, optimize resource use,

1 2

5 9

5 3-6

45-63 7-81

manage and monitor environmental effects. 2 2 See also TOR 4.9f and 4.9g

8 9

6 6

11 79-81

Describe all of the activities and components of the Project that are proposed for approval. Provide outlines of the relevant management plans for these activities.

1 1

2 2

1-12 3

1-43 2-9

Technical information required in this Section may also be required for federal and provincial government approvals (see Appendix). Information required in this Section may be provided in other parts of IOR’s submission(s) provided that the location of the information is appropriately referenced in the EIA report.

— — — —

4.1 Project Need and Alternatives Considered

Discuss the need for oil sands development on the leases, the alternatives to the Project and the potential alternative of not proceeding with development. Include the following:

— — — —



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page

a) an analysis of the key project alternatives that were considered, including project need, alternative projects, project scope (major components included or excluded) and alternative mining methods. Include a comparison of their environmental and technical performance potential and other relevant variables;

1 1 1

2 11 12

2 1-13 2

6-7 1-110 3-9

b) provide the rationale for the decisions made by IOR about project alternatives and the status of any ongoing analyses, including a discussion of options not chosen and the rationale for their exclusion;

1 11 1-13 1-110

c) contingency plans if major project components or methods prove to not be feasible or do not perform as expected;

1 2 12 41-43

d) the implications of a delay in proceeding with the Project, or any phase of the Project; and

1 12 5 19

e) potential cooperative development opportunities for the Project (e.g., shared infrastructure and the implications of the Project for ongoing regional management and research initiatives).

1 1

5 12

6 4

67-69 11-13

4.2 Project Components and Site Selection Describe the nature, size, design capacity, location and

duration of the components of the Project including, but not limited to, the following:

— — — —

a) the oil sands mine area required to support the life of the Project;

1 1

5 5

2 5

3-15 39-65

b) the bitumen extraction, bitumen upgrading and associated facilities,

1 1

5 6

4-5 1-10

29-65 1-36

tailings management, 1 7 1-7 1-34 overburden storage areas and 1 8 1-6 1-20

any chemical storage locations and any off-site facilities; 1 9 4 11-13

c) dewatering and water control facilities, processing/treatment facilities and temporary structures;

1 2

8 5

5 5-8

11-18 9-23

d) buildings and infrastructure, transportation, utilities, access routes, storage areas and mining operations;

1 1 1

5 8 9

4-5 1-6 1-6

29-65 1-20 1-21

e) the type and amount of solid and liquid waste materials and the location of those waste storage and disposal sites;

1 1 1 2

5 7 9 7

5 3-5 4 3-4

39-45 9-28 14 5-9

f) the location of components on a site development plan and the proposed phasing and sequencing of components and development phases. Include a development schedule, explaining:

1 1

5 7

4-5 3-5

29-65 9-28

i) timing of key construction, operational, reclamation and decommissioning activities;

2 9 4-5 19-77

ii) expected duration of each development phase for the life of the Project;

iii) key factors controlling the schedule and uncertainties related to the Project; and


Appendix 1

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VOLUME Section Subject Page g) the total land area disturbed during each stage of the

Project, a projection of the maximum amount of disturbance at any given moment, and a stewardship target that minimizes the amount of land area to be disturbed at any one time during project development;

2 2

9 9

1-3 4

1-18 19-58

h) the environmental implications of alternative mining methods considered, including approaches to minimize the size and duration of disturbances;

1 1

11 11

2 4

3-14 33-44

i) potential cooperative ventures with other oil sands operators and other resource users to minimize the environmental impact of the Project or the environmental impact of regional oil sands development. Discuss how IOR will work to develop such cooperative opportunities and identify a timeframe for their implementation to minimize the environmental impact of the Project. Identify environmental implications of lease boundary agreements with adjacent operators and indicate plans to address any lease boundary issues that may arise;

1 2

5 9

6 4

67-69 37-38

j) the activities to date, but not limited to, resource delineation through seismic activity and core hole drilling programs; and

1 4 2 3-6

k) how IOR has incorporated both community information and elements of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) into project design.

1 2

2 2

9 5

31-34 11-48

Discuss the site selection process for the various components including:

— — — —

l) the process and factors that were considered in evaluating and delineating the oil sands ore body to determine the preferred locations for the mine, plant site and associated processing facilities and upgrader facility;

1 11 3 15-31

m) siting factors with respect to existing activities or other resources and the need to either adjust the development or relocate the existing activity;

1 1 1

11 11 11

4 8 13

33-44 57-67 107-110

n) the rationale for selecting the proposed sites and how stakeholder consultation input, and technical, geotechnical and environmental criteria were considered in decision-making, and the decision criteria used; and

1 1 1 1

2 11 11 11

9 4 8 13

25-28 33-44 57-67 107-110

o) prepare a Constraints Map appropriate for a surface mining project (with reference to or consistent with the CEMA document “Guidelines for the Implementation of Ecosystem Management Tools in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region”) to identify constraints, including traditional land use areas, to the siting of surface facilities.

1 1 1 1

11 11 11 11

1 8 12 13

1 57-67 97-105 107-110

Include a discussion of the following: — — — —

p) IOR’s efforts to use existing seismic lines and linear corridors and describe the types and spatial extent of any additional disturbance resulting from project development;

1 1

4 5

5 5

39 47-65

q) planned accommodations for the workforce during construction and operations, including plans to minimize disturbance and provide for site reclamation after construction is complete; and

1 9 6 19-21

r) how surface disturbance (extent and duration) will be minimized, including co-operation with other developments.

1 5 6 67-69

Provide the following maps showing: — — — —



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page s) the location of existing and proposed project facilities

and infrastructure; 1 5 2 10-11

t) all existing surface leases and clearings and illustrate how these areas will be used for project development;

1 2 2 5-6 19-20

u) all existing seismic lines and other linear corridors (e.g., pipeline, utility corridors and trap lines); and

3 3

11 Appendix 11

1 All

1 All

v) the locations of development components relative to all terrestrial components including, but not limited to, soils, topography, watercourses, waterbodies, vegetation, wildlife habitat, watersheds and wetlands.

3 3 3

7 8 9

9 6 5-13

62-64 33-41 27-105

4.3 Process Selection and Description Provide material balances, flow diagrams and descriptions of

the processes to be used for each production stage of development under normal operating conditions (annual average calendar day rates) and at maximum expected rates (stream day rates). Describe:

1 10 1-5 1-17

a) oil sands mining and bitumen extraction, bitumen upgrading and associated facilities; and

1 1 1 1

5 6 7 9

2 4-10 2 4-6

5-6 9-36 5-7 9-21

b) the alternative technologies considered. 1 1

11 11

5-7 9

45-55 69-88

Document and discuss the following:

c) rationale for selection of the technologies chosen; 1 1

11 11

5-7 9

45-55 69-88

d) the project inputs such as energy and water including the sources of these inputs, and the outputs such as emissions and chemical wastes; including the short- and long-term fate of these outputs (recycling, disposal), and efforts to minimize these inputs and outputs;

1 2 2 5

10 5 7 2

1-5 9 1-5 4

1-17 25-33 1-12 42

e) the energy and process efficiency of the technologies chosen, including greenhouse gas emissions;

1 2 5

10 4 2

4 3 9

11-13 5 165-168

f) the effect of technology selection on tailings characteristics including, but not limited to, quantity, quality, physical characteristics, generation and storage requirements, air and water discharges, toxicity, water and energy requirements, chemical and hydrocarbon waste streams, bitumen recovery and effects to reclamation programs; and

1 1

7 11

1-8 9

1-39 69-88

g) opportunities to reduce surface disturbance, emissions, chemical and hydrocarbon wastes and energy consumption through structural and process integration of mining and extraction facilities and processes, or through other means.

1 1

5 6

1-6 1-10

1-69 1-36

4.4 Materials Storage Identify the location and amount of all on-site and adjacent

storage associated with bitumen production, including storage of chemicals, products, by-products, intermediates and associated wastes. Explain containment and environmental protection measures with reference to relevant provincial and federal guidelines.

1 2

9 7

4 1-5

9-14 1-12


Appendix 1

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VOLUME Section Subject Page 4.5 Utilities and Transportation

Describe the project energy requirements, associated infrastructure and other infrastructure requirements. Discuss the following:

— — — —

a) the steps taken to integrate the needs of other resource users into the location and design of access infrastructure to reduce and manage overall environmental impacts from resource development;

1 5 6 67-69

b) reducing or mitigating visual impact during construction and operation of infrastructure;

9 3 13 67-75

c) how public access to, or within the Project Area or lease will be managed during the development phases of the Project;

9 3 12 61-65

d) the impact of increased vehicle traffic on Highway 63 and roads in the oil sands development area, considering other existing and planned developments and operations in the region including what measures will be taken to reduce traffic and enhance vehicle safety on Highway 63;

1 9 9

9 5 5

6 6 6

19-21 35-38 50

e) any expected change in traffic volume by Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) and any seasonal variability in traffic volume (include mitigation measures);

9 9

5 5

6 6

35-38 50

f) consultations with the local transportation authorities; 9 5 6 35-38

g) the sources, location and availability of road construction and reclamation materials, including an estimate of the volume of materials needed; and

9 3 5 25-28

h) the options considered for supplying the power required for the Project and the environmental implications, including opportunities to increase the energy efficiency of the Project with the use of waste heat and electrical power.

1 1

8 Appendix D

2-3 All

3-7 All

Identify the potential energy source, product pipeline, electrical power transmission and access routes to the Project.

1 9 5 15-18

If regional infrastructure is required, identify who will potentially be responsible for installation and approval of these facilities.

1 1 9

9 Appendix D 5

5 All 6

15-18 All 44-46

Identify and locate all projected and related linear right-of-ways and any potential river and stream crossings and discuss the adequacy of their design with respect to spill prevention.

1 11 12 97-105

Discuss contingency plans for spill response and any environmental risks associated with product releases or management practices.

2 8 2-7 3-13

4.6 Water Supply, Water Management and Wastewater Management (see Appendix) Provide the following information for the Project: — — — —

a) a water balance for each phase of the Project; 2 5 9 25-33

b) process and potable water requirements for both normal and emergency operating situations and any seasonal or annual variability throughout the life of the Project (e.g., start-up, operation, closure and reclamation, end pit lake filling);

1 2

8 5

5 9

15 25-33



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page c) how these requirements will be met, the various supply

options considered (including on-site storage) and the rationale for choosing the preferred option. Reference as appropriate, technical information required in a WA application;

1 2 2 2 2

11 5 5 5 Appendix F

11-12 4 10 11 All

93-105 7 35-36 37-38 All

d) the location of sources/intakes and associated infrastructure (e.g., pipelines for water supply);

1 1

8 9

5 5

12-15 18

e) proposed well locations, aquifer intervals including completion depth and estimated quantities for groundwater withdrawal;

2 6

5 3

9 4

25-33 36-43

f) raw water treatment requirements; 1 1

8 9

5 4

12-16 12-13

g) measures for ensuring efficient use of water, including alternatives to reduce freshwater consumption such as water minimization, use of brackish water, recycling and other conservation techniques; and

2 5 3 5

h) the impact of low flow conditions and instream flow needs (IFN) on water and wastewater management strategies including contingency plans for water sourcing or management alternatives to manage potential low flow withdrawal restrictions.

1 1 1 2

7 9 11 5

4 5 12 10

20 18 105 35-36

Provide a Water Management Plan, document and discuss the following:

— — — —

i) site runoff and containment, erosion control, groundwater protection, muskeg dewatering, mine pit dewatering and the discharge of aqueous contaminants;

1 2 2 2

7 5 5 5

6 6 7 8

29-33 11-18 19 21-33

j) factors used in the design of water management facilities, including expected flood levels and flood protection; and

1 2 2

8 5 9

5 3 6

11-18 17-18 31-32

k) permanent or temporary alterations or realignments to waterbodies and wetlands.

2 6

5 6

6 4

11-18 29-46

Provide a Wastewater Management Plan, describe and discuss:

— — — —

l) the source, quantity and composition of wastewater streams from each component of the proposed operations (e.g., oil sands mining, bitumen extraction, bitumen upgrading and associated facilities) for all project conditions, including normal, start-up, worst case and upset conditions;

1 2

10 5

3 8

5-10 21-23

m) the design of facilities that will handle, treat and store wastewater streams and the type and quantity of any chemicals used in wastewater treatment, including measures taken in the design to prevent potential impacts to the environment;

1 1 2 2

8 9 5 7

5 4 8 All

11-18 12-14 21-23 All

n) the options for wastewater treatment, including the rationale for selecting the preferred options, including a discussion of options not chosen and the rationale for their exclusion;

2 5 8 21-23

o) the options for the disposal of wastewater (e.g., zero liquid discharge and injection wells), including the rationale for choosing the preferred options;

2 5 8 21-23


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page p) the quantity, quality and timing of any proposed

wastewater releases and their potential environmental effects;

2 5 8 21-23

q) how produced water generation will be managed and how make-up water requirements and disposal volumes will be minimized;

2 5 5-9 9-33

r) discharges to the surrounding watershed from existing and reclaimed sites, including the tailings management areas and the management strategy for handling such releases; and

2 2 2 2 2 2

9 5 5 5 5 5

4 3 5 6 7 8

19-39 5 9-10 11-18 19 21-23

s) the potable water and sewage treatment systems for both the construction and operation stages.

1 1

8 9

5 4

15 14

4.7 Air Emissions Management Identify and describe emissions for the Project, including point

and area sources, fugitive emissions (including tailings management areas and mine faces), and emissions from mining vehicles. Estimate the range of emissions from all sources for normal and upset conditions. Discuss the following from a management perspective:

— — — —

a) potential odorous or visual emissions; 5 2 7 151

b) the amount and nature of any acidifying emissions, as well as, probable deposition areas and potential effects to soils, vegetation and waterbodies;

5 6 7 7 8

2 5 3 4 5

5 8 8 7 4

125 91-104 55 103 17

c) emissions associated with slash burning; 5 Appendix 2B 1 131

d) describe the expected annual and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the construction, operation and decommissioning phases of the Project;

2 5

4 2

3 9

5 165-167

e) discuss the Project’s marginal contribution to total provincial and national GHG emissions on an annual basis;

2 5

4 2

3 9

5 165-166

f) describe the intensity of GHG emissions per unit of product produced and discuss how it compares with similar projects and technology performance;

2 5

4 2

3 9

5 167-168

g) discuss how the project design and GHG management plans have taken into account the need for continuous improvement with respect to GHG emissions and their consistency with broader jurisdictional GHG management plans and objectives;

2 2

4 4

2 3

3-4 5-7

h) discuss IOR’s overall GHG management plans, any plans for the use of offsets, (nationally or internationally) and the expected results of implementing the plans;

2 4 3 5-7

i) the emission control technologies proposed for the Project in the context of available practicable technologies. Discuss the following:

— — — —



TOR SECTION EIA


i) use of low oxides of nitrogen (NOx) technology for turbines and boilers having regard for the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) National Emissions Guidelines for Stationary Combustion Turbines and CCME National Emissions Guideline for Commercial/Industrial Boilers and Heaters;

2 1 1

4 8 Appendix D

2 2 2

3 4 12

ii) fugitive emissions control program to detect, measure and control emissions and odours from equipment leaks having regard for the CCME Code of Practice for Measurement and Control of Fugitive VOC Emissions;

2 5

4 2

2 10

3 178

iii) use of technology to meet or do better than CCME Environmental Guidelines for Controlling Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds from Aboveground Storage Tanks and Alberta Environment Guidelines for Secondary Containment for Aboveground Storage Tanks;

1 2 5

9 4 2

4 2 10

9 3 177

iv) sulphur recovery or acid gas re-injection to reduce sulphur emissions having regard for current EUB sulphur recovery guidelines ID 2001-3;

5 2 2 25

v) emergency flaring scenarios and proposed measures to ensure flaring events are minimized having regard for EUB Guide 60 and design criteria to ensure that flares operate at high efficiency;

2 5

4 Appendix 2B

2 1

3 130

vi) gas collection, conservation and technology for vapour recovery for the Project’s air emissions;

1 9 4 9-10

vii) technology or management programs to minimize the direct emission of particulate matter and trace metals of concern having regard to the provisions of the Canada Wide Standard for particulate matter and ozone; and

2 5

4 2

4 4

3 65-77

viii) monitoring programs IOR will implement to assess air quality and the effectiveness of mitigation during project development and operation.

2 5

4 2

4 10

9 177-178

Discuss how these programs are compatible with regional multi-stakeholder air quality management initiatives and how IOR plans to incorporate air quality monitoring programs into the management of air emissions from their facility.

2 2 2

3 3 4

5 6 4

9-10 13-14 9

4.8 Hydrocarbon, Chemical and Waste Management

Characterize and estimate the volumes of hydrocarbon and chemical waste streams generated by the Project. Identify how each waste stream will be managed. Demonstrate that the selected options for waste management are consistent with best industry practice. Provide the following information:

— — — —

a) a classification of the wastes generated and a characterization of each stream under the EPEA Waste Management Regulations;

2 7 4 7-8

b) the location, nature and amount of on-site hydrocarbon storage. Discuss containment and other environmental protection measures;

1 1

9 9

2 4

5 9-11

c) a listing of chemical product consumption for the Project. Identify products containing substances that are Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) toxic chemicals, on the Priority Substances List (PSL 2), on the National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI), or Track 1 substances targeted under Environment Canada’s Toxic Substances Management Policy;

2

7 5 11


Appendix 1

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d) in general terms, how chemical products will be stored and managed to ensure safety and environmental protection;

1 2 2

9 3 7

4 3-5 5

11-13 5-10 11-12

e) the chemical make-up and quantity of drilling wastes produced by the Project;

2 7 4 8

f) the management plan for exploratory drilling wastes, produced tailings, overburden and other mining wastes, as well as any by-products. Include evaluations to minimize fine fluid tailings production, considering mining methods and the proposed extraction process;

1 1 1 2

5 7 11 7

4-5 3 11 1-4

29-65 9-28 69-88 1-9

g) the strategy for on-site waste disposal versus off-site waste disposal and an analysis of environmental implications of proposed options. Identify the location of on-site waste disposal locations, including industrial landfills. Identify on- and off-site waste treatment areas; and

1 2

9 7

4 2-4

14 3-9

h) how, using specific examples, the principles of pollution prevention, waste minimization and recycling have been incorporated into the project design.

1 1 1 2 2 2

7 7 11 4 5 7

2 3 9 2 3 4

3-7 9-10 69-88 3-4 5 9

4.9 Environmental Management System and Contingency Plans

Summarize key elements of IOR’s environment, health and safety management system and discuss how it will be integrated into the Project. Provide the following information:

— — — —

a) corporate policies and procedures, operator competency training, spill and air emission reporting and monitoring procedures and emergency response plans;

1 2 2

12 3 8

6 2-6 1-7

29-32 3-14 1-13

b) plans to prevent or minimize the production or release into the environment of substances that may have an adverse effect;

1 2

9 4

4 1-2

9-14 1-4

c) a conceptual contingency plan that considers environmental effects associated with operational upset conditions, such as serious malfunctions or accidents;

2 8 6-7 11-13

d) the procedures specified in the emergency response plan to deal with potential negative impacts and public communication procedures;

2 2

8 8

3 6

5-6 11

e) quality assurance and quality control (QA-QC) programs IOR plans to implement to ensure the ongoing operation of environmental management systems meet regulatory standards (such as the CCME leak detection and repair program) and how their QA-QC program compares to industry best management practices;

1 2 2 2 2

12 3 3 4 4

6 3 5 1 2

30-32 5 9-11 1-2 3-4



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VOLUME Section Subject Page f) environmental monitoring done independently by IOR in

addition to monitoring performed in conjunction with other stakeholders and publicly-available monitoring information. Provide a comprehensive summary of all proposed monitoring, research and other strategies or plans to minimize, mitigate and manage any potential adverse effects; and

2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

3 4 5 5 9 Appendix C 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5

6 4 6 7 6 All 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7

13-14 9 18 19 79-81 All 24-25 35 43 53 66-67 71 44-45 82-83 101-102 125 134 108-109 127 146 154

g) describe new monitoring initiatives that may be required as a result of the Project and outline IOR’s commitment to adaptive environmental management.

1 2 12 41-43

4.10 Adaptation Planning Describe the flexibility built into the plant design and layout to

accommodate future modifications required by any change in emission standards, limits and guidelines.

1 9 2 3-5

Comment on the adaptability of the Project in the event the region’s climate changes significantly. Identify any implications that those possible climate changes might have for the sustainability of the Project. Discuss any follow-up programs and adaptive management considerations.

1 5 to 9

2 Sections entitled Climate Change

12 41-43

4.11 Reclamation and Closure (see Appendix) Provide a conceptual, comprehensive, progressive

reclamation and closure plan for the Project (with regard to the selected tailings technology). Outline reclamation concepts and objectives, proposed end land use objectives and consultation process and other factors necessary for this plan to be implemented. Discuss the following:

2 9 1-6 1-81

a) the present uncertainties regarding mine reclamation techniques, the efforts to reduce the uncertainties, including contingency plans;

2 9 6 79-81

b) consideration of baseline information with respect to capability for vegetation, forest productivity, recreation, wildlife, birds, fisheries, aesthetics and land use resources;

2 3 3 3 3

9 6 8 9 11

3 All All All All

7-18 All All All All

c) reclamation sequencing for each phase of development; 2 1

9 5

4 5

19-29 47-64


Appendix 1

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VOLUME Section Subject Page d) re-establishment of topography, watercourse and

vegetation communities of natural function and appearance that are integrated with the surrounding landscape and adjacent land disturbances. Include in the discussion out-of-pit structure design, riparian areas and other developments; and the return to equivalent land capability that existed prior to the project development, including forest productivity and wildlife habitat;

2 9 4 19-58

e) document the return of land capability through the application of management strategies for reclamation. Discuss instances where capability cannot be achieved such as what existed prior to project development;

2 9

9 3

4 7

44-50 31-39

f) reforestation plans to the ecosite phase levels to achieve land use capabilities equivalent to those that existed prior to the project development;

2 9 4 50-58

g) a conceptual schedule for the return of the forest resource base, by area, species and productivity;

2 9 4 19-58

h) restoration of traditional land-based uses; 2 9 2 3

i) soil replacement and revegetation; and 2 9 4 44-58

j) end pit lakes, wetlands and other components of the reclaimed landscape.

2 9 4 29-39

Discuss the timeframe for completion of reclamation phases and release of all lands affected by the Project back to the Crown, including previously-disturbed lands and public access.

— — — —

Discuss how the IOR closure plan will: — — — —

k) return land to the equivalent capability for the range of users and uses that existed prior to the project development having regard for regulatory requirements and stakeholder end land use preferences. Describe what reclamation performance indicators will be used to ensure this requirement will be met;

2 2

9 9

4 6

44-50 79-81

l) incorporate the resources and values identified in the Fort McMurray/Athabasca Oil Sands Sub-regional Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) into the closure plan; and

2 9

9 3

2 4-12

6 23-65

m) address the issues raised by the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) and the Regional Sustainable Development Strategy for the Athabasca Oil Sands (RSDS).

2 9 2 4-5

Describe how the closure plan will achieve the desired final landforms through the integration of mine planning and development and reclamation and goals within the IRP for reclamation to natural landforms.

2 9 4 34-39

Describe the aquatic components of the closure landscape, including end pit lakes. Discuss issues related to the design of a self-sustaining and productive aquatic ecosystem, including implications of the selected tailings technology. Explain process and activities IOR will undertake to address issues of uncertainty surrounding the long-term ecological viability of end pit lakes. Include a hydrological analysis of the closure landscape, including an assessment of performance uncertainties and discussion of contingency plans should performance not match expectations. Contrast the pre-development aquatic ecosystem to the closure ecosystem.

2 2

9 9

4 6

29-39 79-81



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page Describe how the closure plan incorporates topographical

diversity, size and extent of vegetation and wetlands into the final design. Identify the closure plan goals for biodiversity. Explain how achieving biodiversity goals will promote end land use that has equivalent land capability. Discuss the compatibility of these two goals.

2 9 4 39-58

Discuss plans to monitor biodiversity in the reclaimed landscape, considering the use of control sites as benchmarks for comparison with reclaimed areas, and using Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program protocols. Using the biotic and abiotic pre-disturbance assessment factors, compare pre-disturbance to post-disturbance biodiversity.

2 9 6 79-81

4.12 Participation in Regional Cooperative Efforts Discuss IOR’s current and planned participation in regional

cooperative efforts to address environmental health and socio-economic issues associated with regional development including, but not limited to, CEMA, the Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA) and the Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP) and their working groups. Include IOR’s participation in regional air, water and other environmental monitoring programs, health studies, research, TEK and socio-economic studies.

2 2 3 to 9

3 Appendix C Sections entitled Imperial Oil Initiatives

6 All All

13-14 All All

Describe where IOR intends to rely upon CEMA, WBEA, RAMP, and Canadian Oil Sands Network for Research and Development (CONRAD) to design mitigation measures for cumulative effects, regional monitoring programs or research programs.

5 to 9

Sections entitled: Imperial Oil Initiatives

All All

Describe how IOR will contribute to the effective design and implementation of proposed mitigation measures, monitoring programs and research programs within these regional cooperative efforts.

2, 5 - 9 Sections entitled: Regional Initiatives and Imperial Oil Initiatives

All All

5.0 Environmental Assessment Define assessment scenarios including: — — — —

a) a Baseline Case, which includes existing environmental conditions, existing and approved projects or activities;

b) an Application Case, which includes the Baseline Case plus the Project; and

c) a Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) Case, which includes past studies, existing and anticipated future environmental conditions, existing projects or activities, plus other or planned projects or activities.

Note: For the purposes of defining assessment scenarios, “approved” means approved by any federal, provincial or municipal regulatory authority. “Planned” is considered any project or activity that has been publicly disclosed prior to the issuance of the terms of reference or up to six months prior to the submission of the Project Application and EIA report, whichever sooner.

4 2 2.2 5-11


Appendix 1

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VOLUME Section Subject Page 5.1 Basic Information Requirements for the Environmental Assessment The EIA report will include the following basic environmental

information requirements for the three assessment scenarios:

a) quantitative and qualitative information about the environment and ecological processes in the Study Areas, including TEK and relevant information presented in previous environmental assessments and an overview of trends or uncertainties arising from that review;

b) a description of any deficiencies or limitations in the existing environmental database, how these deficiencies and/or limitations were addressed, their impact on the analysis and any appropriate follow-up;

c) discussion of the reliability of data, including synthetic data, used in the EIA, including any modelling exercises. Include a discussion on the potential range of model results based on variability of the data used. Describe plans for ongoing model parameter updates and model validation;

d) information about the human activities in the Study Areas and the nature, size, location and duration of their potential interactions with the environment; e.g., land disturbance, discharges of substances, changes to access status and any significant effect the Project may have on the present and future capacity of renewable resources;

e) information about ecological processes and natural forces that are expected to produce changes in environmental conditions; e.g., forest fires, flood or drought conditions and predator-prey population cycles;

f) the demonstrated use of appropriate predictive tools and methods, consistent with CEMA, WBEA and RAMP and any other relevant initiatives, to enable quantitative estimates of future conditions with the highest possible degree of certainty;

g) definition of the system employed to classify and evaluate the effects associated with the Project. The classification system will include qualitative and quantitative descriptions of the effects, having regard for direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration, reversibility and frequency (CEAA Responsible Authority’s Guide). The evaluation system will rank the consequences of the effects measured quantitatively against management objectives or baseline conditions, and described qualitatively with respect to the views of the proponent and stakeholders;

5 to 9

Sections entitled: Traditional Knowledge; Sources of Data; Study Areas or Spatial Considerations; Assessment Methods; Methods; Linkage Analysis; Effects Analysis; Effects Classification; Prediction Confidence; Management and Monitoring

All All

h) management plans to prevent, minimize or mitigate adverse effects and to monitor and respond to expected or unanticipated conditions, including any follow-up plans to verify the accuracy of predictions or determine the effectiveness of mitigation plans. Provide a record of all assumptions, confidence in data to support conclusions regarding reclamation and mitigation success;

2 5 to 9

3 to 9 Sections entitled: Mitigation; Management and Monitoring

All

All

i) a discussion of residual effects and their environmental consequences, having regard for regional management initiatives;

5 to 9 Sections entitled: Effects Classification; Management and Monitoring

All All



TOR SECTION EIA


j) identify all stages or elements of the Project that are sensitive to changes or variability in climate parameters. Include, but not necessarily limit parameters to, temperature, precipitation and wind;

k) for those elements of the Project that are sensitive to climate parameters discuss changes in those parameters over the life of the Project (including decommissioning and reclamation) and the level of confidence associated with those changes. Discuss what impacts the changes to climate parameters may have on elements of the Project that are sensitive to climate parameters;

4 5 to 9

Appendix 2B Sections entitled: Prediction Confidence and Climate Change

All All

l) discuss what impacts of the Project, including environmental, human health and cumulative impacts may be altered by changes in climate parameters;

4 5 to 9

Appendix 2B Sections entitled: Prediction Confidence and Climate Change

All All

m) document any assumptions or transformations required to combine or manipulate data for interpretations in the EIA report. Describe rationale for disregarding relevant data;

n) identify assumptions behind statistical tests used in the EIA report that show the data meets statistical requirements (e.g., normality, independence, etc.); and

3, 5 to 9 Sections entitled: Sources of Data

All All

o) for each model used to predict future conditions, provide: — — — —

i) a pictorial representation for all model compartments and linkages including all subroutines and modules;

5 6

Appendix: 2A; 2B; 3A Appendix: 3; 4; 5A

All All

All All

ii) a list of all parameters incorporated in the model [(reference to pictorial representation in m)] above with a brief description of their purpose, known range of values, whether set from literature, calibrated, or measured (derived from local data) and the value(s) used in the EIA predictions;

5 6

Appendix: 2A; 2B; 3A Appendix: 3; 4; 5A

All All

All All

iii) a sensitivity analysis demonstrating which parameters have the largest influence on model output;

iv) and a discussion of error for the parameters to which the model is most sensitive and for the final model output.

5 6

Sections entitled: Prediction Confidence. Appendix: 2A; 2B; 3A Sections entitled: Prediction Confidence. Appendix: 3; 4; 5A

All All

All All

5.2 Study Areas Define and provide the rationale for the spatial and temporal

boundaries for the Study Areas used for the assessment. The spatial boundaries shall include all areas where measurable changes in the environment may be caused by the Project regardless of any political boundaries. The boundaries should take into consideration relevant CEMA, WBEA and RAMP initiatives. Temporal boundaries should extend through the exploration, construction, operation and reclamation and closure phases of the Project. Provide resource maps of suitable scale that include legal land descriptions, topographical and other natural features of the Project Area and EIA Study Areas.

3 - 9 Sections entitled: Study Areas or Spatial Considerations

All All

5.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects Assessment Assess and discuss the cumulative environmental effects that

are likely to result from the Project in combination with other existing, approved and planned projects in the region that could reasonably be considered to have a combined effect. Include industrial projects, as well as activities associated with land use and infrastructure.

5 - 9 Sections entitled Effects Analysis

All All


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Subject Page Explain the approach and methods used to identify and

assess cumulative impacts, including cooperative opportunities and initiatives undertaken to further the collective understanding of cumulative impacts. Provide a record of all assumptions, confidence in data and analysis to support conclusions. Describe deficiencies or limitations in the existing database on environmental components and propose measures to deal with resultant uncertainties.

4 5 - 9

2 Sections entitled: Assessment Methods; Models and Assumptions; Sources of Data; Quality and Quantity of Baseline Information; Prediction Confidence

2-11 All

5-29 All

5.4 Climate, Air Quality and Noise Describe air quality in the Study Areas and any anticipated

environmental changes for air quality. Review emission sources identified in Section 4.7 and model normal, worst case and upset conditions. Discuss the following:

5 5 5 5 5 5

2 Appendix 2A Appendix 2B Appendix 2C Appendix 2D Appendix 2E

All All All All All All

All All All All All All

a) the selection criteria used to determine the Study Areas, including information sources and assessment methods;

5 2 2 7

b) baseline climatic conditions, including the type and frequency of meteorological conditions, that may result in poor air quality;

5 5

2 Appendix 2A

3 All

31-33 All

c) fate and effects of appropriate air quality parameters including, but not limited to, sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), Total Reduced Sulphur Compounds (TRS), total hydrocarbons (THC), NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC), individual hydrocarbons of concern in the THC and VOC mixtures, particulates (PM10 and PM2.5), secondary particulate matter, trace metals, acid deposition and ground-level ozone;

5 5 5 5 5

2 2 Appendix 2C Appendix 2D Appendix 2E

4 7 All All All

35-124 151-162 All All All

d) estimates of ground-level concentrations of the appropriate air quality parameters, include frequency distributions for air quality predictions in communities and sensitive receptors; and include an indication of maximum and 99.9 percentile (98 percentile for any modelling predictions);

5 5 5 5 5


4 7 All All All

35-124 151-162 All All All

e) any expected changes to particulate deposition or acidic deposition patterns;

5 5 5 5 5


4 5 All All All

35-124 125-138 All All All

f) justification of models used, model assumptions, and any model shortcomings or constraints on findings. Discuss the meteorological data model input set used to run the model and provide a rationale for the choice of data set;

5 5 5

2 Appendix 2A Appendix 2B

2 All All

26-30 All All

g) the modelling in accordance with Alberta Environment’s Air Quality Modelling Guidelines;

5 5

2 Appendix 2B

2

15-17 2

h) for acid deposition modelling, provide deposition data from maximum levels to areas within the 0.25 keq/ha/yr and 0.17/keq/ha/yr Potential Acid Input (PAI) isopleth; include analysis of PAI deposition levels consistent with the CEMA acid deposition management framework;

5 5 5 5

2 Appendix 2C Appendix 2D Appendix 2E

5

125-138 21-26 21-26 19-24



TOR SECTION EIA


i) the regional, provincial and national objectives for air quality that were used to evaluate the significance of emission levels and ground-level concentrations, including the Canada Wide Standard for particulate matter and ozone;

5 2 2 16-25

j) predicted air quality concentrations compared with the appropriate air quality guidelines available;


4-7 All All All

35-162 All All All

k) any implications of the expected air quality for environmental protection and public health including:

8 3 All All

i) sensitive receptors in the receiving environment which are likely to be exposed to air quality and deposition changes;

ii) the likely exposure levels, either acute or chronic, experienced by the receptors, their effects on the receptors and the ability of the receptors to recover from those effects;

8 8 8 8

3 3 3 3

4 4 5 6

19-20 13-42 43-56 57-64

iii) the potential for decreased air quality, including odours; and

5 2 7 151-162

iv) the implications for sustaining regional air quality within emerging regional air quality objectives;

5 2 10 169-178

l) air quality impacts resulting from the Project and their implications for other environmental resources including, but not limited to, habitat diversity and quantity, vegetation resources, water quality and soil conservation;

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8

2 2 Appendix 2C Appendix 2D Appendix 2E 2 2 5 3 4 5

4 5 All All All 4 5 8 8 7 4

35-124 125-128 All All All 35-124 125-138 91-104 55-68 103-126 17

m) how air quality impacts resulting from the Project will be mitigated;

5 2 10 177-178

n) ambient air quality monitoring that will be conducted; 5 2

2 4

10 4

177-178 9

o) baseline noise levels. Identify components of the Project that will affect noise levels; and

5 5

3 Appendix 3B

3 All

19-20 All

p) the results of a noise assessment based on operations, as specified by EUB ID 99-08, Noise Control Directive, including potentially-affected people and wildlife. Provide an estimate of the noise resulting from the development, their implications and proposed mitigation measures.

5 5 5

3 3 3

4 5 6

21-34 35-44 45-46

5.5 Land Use, Access to Public Lands and Aggregate Resource Conservation Describe land use, access to public lands and the availability

of aggregate resources in the Study Areas. Explain the significance of land use changes for regional land management, aggregate resource conservation, other industrial uses in the region, the maintenance of traditional lifestyles, and recreational uses. Provide information on land uses and seasonal variations. Discuss the following:

9 1 1

3 4 5

5 4 5

25-28 37 46-47


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject a) the selection criteria used to determine the Study Areas,

including information sources and assessment methods; 9 3 2 6-10

b) unique sites or special features in the Study Areas, such as Natural Areas or Environmentally Significant Areas. Discuss any impacts of the Project on these features. Indicate the location and values of Wildland Parks, if present;

3 9

11 3

5 10

17-23 51-55

c) the existing land uses, including the metallic and industrial minerals development, oil sands development, tourism, forestry, fishing, hunting, cultural and traditional use and outdoor recreation;

3 9

11 3

1 3-12

1-6 13-65

d) the nature, location and duration of anticipated land use changes;

9 3 5-13 25-75

e) the land use, resource management, planning and applicable directives as they relate to the Project;

9 3 2-13 3-75

f) whether and to what extent, the development is consistent with the intent of the applicable land use and resource management and planning directives. Identify:

9 3 2-13 3-75

i) the relevant boundaries for the application of guidelines and objectives, including management areas, sub-areas and relevant ecosystem classifications with functional linkages mapping;

9 9

3 3

2 3

6 13

ii) mitigation or research requirements proposed to satisfy the applicable guidelines; and

9 9 9 9 9 9 9

3 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 7 8 9 10 11 12

26 32 42 46 52 58 103

iii) the proposed setbacks from waterbodies and watercourses with regard for applicable guidelines and management objectives. Discuss the rationale for the location of proposed facilities in the context of the proposed setbacks;

9 3

5 27

g) the existing recreational use including traffic counts, destination and activity analysis and the implications of the Project on those activities in all seasons, during and after, development activities;

3 9 9 9

11 3 3 3

6 11 12 13

25-29 57-59 61-65 61-64

h) the aggregate resources impacted by the mine development. Discuss the quantity and quality of aggregate resources and any mitigation necessary to conserve the resource;

9 3 5 25-28

i) the process for addressing other users such as trappers and holders of Forest Management Agreements (FMA) and Timber Quota holders. Determine the impact of development on these uses and identify possible mitigation strategies;

2 9 9

2 3 3

5 7 8

21 31-39 41-44

j) the use of the fish resources by existing and potential domestic, traditional and sport fisheries; and

3 11 12 59-60



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject k) how reclamation and closure planning processes,

completed or underway, will replace existing land use potential considering the recommendations of applicable guidelines.

2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

9 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

2-5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

1-77 38 43 46 54 58 64 75

5.6 Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems Describe ecosystem characteristics in the Study Areas.

Explain the significance of any anticipated environmental changes for ecosystem integrity. Include the sustainability of biodiversity, critical wildlife sites and fisheries habitat, wildlife corridors, habitat quality, and productivity and potential changes to fish and wildlife populations. Discuss the existing use of plants and animals in traditional lifestyles, recreational pursuits and industrial activities and, if appropriate, provide the locations of these sites.

3 6 7 7 7 9 9

2-11 6 3 4 5 3 6

All 4-5 3-7 3-7 3-6 3 3-5

All 29-91 13-53 17-127 27-147 13-19 11-75

5.6.1 Biodiversity Determine a suite of biotic and abiotic biodiversity indicators

for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that characterize naturally-functioning ecosystems in the Study Areas and represent broader taxonomic assemblages. In addition:

6 6 7 7 7

6 6 3 4 5

2 3 2 2 2

93 94 9 10 10

a) discuss the selection process and rationale used to select biotic and abiotic biodiversity indicators;

6 6 7 7

6 6 4 5

2 3 2 2

12-15 21-27 10-11 10-14

b) within selected taxonomic groups, discuss the regional presence and abundance of species in each ecosite phase or ecological type;

7 5 2 10

c) provide species lists and summaries of observed and estimated species richness and evenness. Baseline information collected in each terrestrial and aquatic vegetation community will be accompanied by sufficient plots in each ecosite phase to provide reliable data using a suitable proportional sampling method and to provide a measure of biodiversity on baseline sites that are representative of the proposed reclamation ecosites;

3 3 3 7

6 8 9 4

6-8 8-12 6-12 6

37-172 43-74 37-102 85-103

d) rank each ecological unit for biodiversity potential by combining measures of species richness, overlap in species lists, importance of individual species or associations, uniqueness and other appropriate measures. Describe the techniques used in the ranking process;

3 7

8 5

12 5

73 111

e) discuss the contribution of the Project to any anticipated changes in regional biodiversity, including measures to minimize such change;

7 7 7

3 4 5

4-7 4-6 4-6

19-55 29-103 33-146

f) discuss the implications of the Project’s incremental contribution to habitat fragmentation on biodiversity with regard to regional levels of habitat fragmentation;

7 7

4 5

4 5-6

29-47 111-146


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject

g) identify and describe IOR’s participation in regional biodiversity programs (e.g., Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program) to monitor and track changes to biodiversity on lease areas, and to measure cumulative effects in the region;

7 7

4 5

8 7

134 154

h) discuss pre- and post-topography, soil and parent material conditions and their contribution to biodiversity; and

7 3 4-6 19-43

i) discuss terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem diversity. 6 7 7

6 4 5

6 4-5 5-6

93-106 29-83 111-146

5.6.2 Geology, Soils, Terrain Describe the bedrock and surficial geology, soils and terrain in

the Study Areas. Where appropriate, use maps of suitable scale, cross-sections and figures to illustrate these features. Explain the significance of any changes for the regional landscape, biodiversity, productivity, ecological integrity, aesthetics and the future use of the regional landscape area. Discuss the following:

1 3 3 3 3 7 9

3 3 7 7 7 3; 4; 5 3

3 8 8 9 10 All 13

9-37 45-57 29-56 57-62 63-66 All 67-79


7, 9 Sections entitled: Study Area or Spatial Considerations

All All

b) the overburden geology and mineralogy; 1 3

3 3

3 6

12 23-36

c) the distribution of soil types in the proposed project areas using appropriate soil survey procedures as outlined in the Soil Survey Handbook, Vol. 1 (Agriculture Canada, 1987);

3 7

7 3

8 3

29-56 15-16

d) the soil survey maps should show approximate soil inspection and sampling locations corresponding to appropriate survey intensities in the footprint areas. The soil survey report should include necessary landscape and soil characteristics for land capability rating;

3 7 8 29-56

e) the sensitivity and buffering capacity of the local and regional soil types to potential acid deposition from the proposed development and the predicted deposition patterns;

7 3 8 55-67

f) the predicted acidifying impact to local and regional soils resulting from the Project with reference to local studies, current guidelines and management objectives for acidifying emissions consistent with the CEMA acid deposition management framework;

7 3 8 61-62

g) the implications of environmental effects on ecosystem sustainability and regional management, including:

— — — —

i) any constraints or limitations to achieving vegetation restoration based on anticipated soil conditions;

7 4 5 66-72, 73, 76

ii) an assessment of soil types for reclamation suitability and the approximate volume of suitable soil materials for reclamation;

2 9 5 62-63

iii) the potential for soil erosion and measures to minimize the effects of any such erosion; and

2 9 4 19-58



TOR SECTION EIA


iv) any other issues that will affect the soil capability of the Study Areas or the reclaimed landscape and the mitigation measures proposed;

7 7 7 7 7

3 3 3 3 3

4 5 6 7 8

19-25 27-35 37-43 45-53 55-67

h) an estimate of the effects of surface disturbance on geological features and soils, including:

— — — —

i) the type and extent of changes to the pre-disturbance topography;

7 3 4 19-25

ii) the overburden characteristics in relation to the needs of post-mining reclamation programs; and

2 9 4 17-56

iii) an assessment and maps of the pre- and post-disturbance land capability and resiliency of the Project Area and a description of the impacts to land capability resulting from the Project.

7

3 7 45-53

5.6.3 Vegetation Describe and map vegetation communities in the EIA Study

Areas, using, as appropriate, the Alberta Vegetation Inventory (AVI) Standard AVI 2.1, The Field Guide to Ecosites of Northern Alberta (Beckingham and Archibald, 1996) and the Alberta Wetland Inventory Standards Manual (AWI) Version 1.0. Map the project development footprint at a scale of 1:20,000. Discuss the following:

3 3 3 3 3 7

8 8 8 8 8 4

7 8 9 10 11 3

39-41 43-63 65-67 69-70 71-72 17-24


7 4 2 6-8

b) ecosite phases based on their potential to support rare plant species, old growth forests or other communities of restricted distribution, e.g., fens. Verify the presence of species of rare plants and the ecosites in which they are found using recommended survey methods;

3 3 7

8 8 4

9 10 6

65-67 69-70 85-102

c) the species associated with each ecosite phase and address:

7 4 6 85-102

i) special status plant species (rare, threatened or endangered);

3 3

8 8

9 10

65-67 69-70

ii) species which are important to wildlife as food or shelter or are indicator species for environmental effects. Include an estimation of the relative abundance of these species;

7 5 2 15-16

iii) the importance of the size, distribution and variety of vegetation units assessed in habitat suitability indices for wildlife and riparian habitat and for ecosystem function, in general;

7 7

5 5

2 4

15-16 33-109

iv) the importance of peatlands and wetlands species and landscape units for local and regional habitat, sustained forest growth, the hydrologic regime and water quality. Determine the rarity or abundance of peatlands and wetlands from a regional, provincial and national perspective; and

7 4 5 47-84

v) the vegetation used for food, medicinal and cultural purposes;

9 6 3 17


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA


d) the sensitivity to disturbance of each of the vegetation communities and their ability to be restored, as well as the techniques used to estimate sensitivity to disturbance and reclamation (e.g., sensitivity to air emissions), particularly for those communities for which a high degree of uncertainty currently exists around potential and methods for successful reclamation;

7

4

5

47-84

e) the nature, size, distribution and timing of changes to vegetation communities, including the effects of air emissions;

7 7

4 4

5 7

47-84 103-126

f) the significance of the changes to vegetation for: — — — —

i) the availability of plants for traditional and medicinal purposes;

9 6 3 17

ii) the sustainability of peatlands and wetlands in conjunction with other project-induced variations in air quality, hydrology, water quality and quantity, habitat quality and wildlife populations;

6 7 7 7

3; 4; 5 4 4 4

All 4 5 7

All 33-109 47-84 103-124

iii) the area of productive and non-productive forest land base that will be disturbed and taken out of production during the life of the Project. Discuss by species and productivity, ecosite phase and age class and include any other information needed to amend the appropriate FMA. Describe IOR’s plans for the return of pre-disturbance forest ecosites by area, species and productivity;

7 7

4 4

4 5

29-45 47-84

iv) ecosystem fragmentation; 7 4 4 29-45 v) introduction of non-native plant species on native

species composition and potential plant changes to communities;

7 4 6 87-95

vi) the area and distribution of all vegetation communities existing prior to the project development and expected at closure, including relative percent change in those communities; and

7 4 5 59-72

vii) habitat diversity and quantity, water quality, erosion potential, soil conservation, recreation and other uses, both at baseline and closure;

2 7

9 5

4-5 5

All 117-122

g) IOR’ s plans to mitigate the adverse effects of site clearing and other development activities and operations on vegetation, including rare plant species; and

2 2 7 7 7

9 9 4 4 4

4 5 4 5 6

50-58 59-61 29-45 59-72 87-93

h) discuss how environmental plans for the Project will address applicable provincial and federal policies for wetlands.

7 4 5 62

5.6.4 Wildlife Describe existing wildlife resources (amphibians, reptiles,

birds and terrestrial and aquatic mammals), their use and potential use of habitats in the Study Areas. Document the anticipated changes to wildlife in the Study Areas. Discuss the following:

3 7

9 5

5-13 3

27-105 27-30


7 5 2 6-7

b) the criteria and selection process for wildlife indicator species;

7 5 2 10-14



TOR SECTION EIA


c) wildlife species composition, distribution, relative abundance, key habitat areas, seasonal movements and movement corridors, and general life history requirements; and

3 7

9 5

5-13 3

27-105 27-30

d) current field data, using recognized sampling protocols, for all species of concern, including those listed by Alberta (at risk, may be at risk, and sensitive list species in the General Status of Alberta Wild Species 2000, or update) and federal Species at Risk Act (endangered, threatened, and special concern species).

7 5 3 27-30

Provide an impact assessment for wildlife indicators and listed wildlife species in the Study Area including:

— — — —

e) potential adverse impacts on wildlife populations, habitat use, availability and quality, and food supply during all phases of the Project. Model habitat supply over time within the Study Areas for the selected indicator species, population viability analysis may be necessary for some key species. Habitat models used to evaluate impacts should be modified/calibrated by comparing model predictions with wildlife data from the Study Areas;

7 7 7

5 5 5

2 4 5

3-26 59 117

f) habitat loss, abandonment, reduced effectiveness, fragmentation or alteration as it relates to reduced reproductive potential and recruitment for regional wildlife populations over the life of the Project and time required to recolinize;

7 7 7

5 5 5

4 5 6

59 117 134

g) the spatial and temporal changes to habitat (type, quality, quantity, diversity and distribution) and to wildlife indicator species distribution, relative abundance, movements, habitat availability and the potential to return the area to pre-disturbed wildlife habitat/population conditions, including:

7 7 7 7 7 7

5 5 5 5 5 5

4.4 4.5 5.4 5.5 6.4 6.5

59 103 117 122 134 141

i) anticipated effects on wildlife as a result of changes to air, water, including both acute and chronic effects on animal health; and

7 8

5 4; Appendix 3A

4 All

59-102 All

ii) anticipated effects on wildlife due to improved or altered access into the area, (e.g., vehicle collisions with wildlife, obstructions to daily or seasonal movements, noise effects and hunting pressure) during operations and after project closure; and

7 5 4 59-102

h) map the changes in habitat fragmentation, and the potential for habitat patch isolation, anticipated from the Project and other planned activities on a local and regional level; and

7 5 6 134-141

i) how IOR will ensure the protection and maintenance of riparian habitats, interconnectivity of such habitat and the unimpeded movement by wildlife species using the habitat.

7 5 6 134-141

Provide the following information: — — — —

j) identify residual impacts to wildlife and wildlife habitat and discuss their significance in the context of local and regional wildlife populations; and

7 7

5 5

4 5

33-109 111-127

k) a strategy and mitigation plan to minimize impacts on habitat and wildlife populations through the life of the Project and to return productive wildlife habitat to the area, considering:

7 7 7

5 5 5

4 5 6

62 119 136


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA


i) habitat enhancement measures in adjacent undisturbed lands within the leases, and a schedule for the return of habitat capability to areas impacted by the Project;

2 7 7

9 5 5

4 4 5

16-55 62 119

ii) consistency of the plan with applicable regional, provincial and federal wildlife habitat objectives and policies;

7 9

5 3

2 4

3-5 23

iii) the need for access controls or other management strategies to protect wildlife during and after project operations;

7 5 4 62-64

iv) monitoring programs to assess wildlife impacts from the Project and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies and habitat enhancement measures;

7 7 7

5 5 5

4 5 6

108 127 146

v) environmental management procedures that IOR will use should monitoring indicate that mitigation measures are unsuccessful;

7 7 7 7

5 5 5 5

4 5 6 7

108 127 146 154

vi) the deterrent systems that will be incorporated into the Project to reduce the impacts on birds and other wildlife attracted to open ponds or wastewater ponds; and

7 5 4 64

vii) an assessment of the timeframe required to develop habitat of suitable quality and quantity on reclaimed lands, and the effects on re-colonization for each species identified.

2 7 7

9 5 5

4 4 5

16-55 59-102 117-122

5.6.5 Groundwater (see Appendix) Describe baseline groundwater conditions and map the

groundwater regime in the Study Areas. Discuss the following:

— — — —


3 6

2 3

1 2

9-10 7-8

b) any new hydrogeological investigations, including methodology and results;

3 6 6 6

3 3 3 3

2 2 3 4

11-35 5-16 17-24 25-66

c) justification of hydrogeological models used for the assessment, including sensitivity analysis and any model shortcomings or constraints on findings and how any limitations were addressed;

6 6 6 6

3 3 3 3

2 4 5 5

12 26 68 81

d) the suitability of on-site waste disposal and supporting geotechnical information;

1 9 4 9-14

e) the potential for hydraulic connection between geological zones affected by the Project (e.g., disposal, bitumen production, groundwater production and the land surface);

6 3 6

3 3 3

2 7 5

13-14 37-43 67-91

f) surrogate parameters to be used as indicators of potential aquifer contamination including, but not limited to, total phenols, dissolved organic carbon, total extractable hydrocarbons, chlorides, sulphides, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) and trace elements, including arsenic;

6 6

3 3

2 5

10-11 67-68

g) the potential for changes in the groundwater regime and the effects of these changes, including:

— — — —



TOR SECTION EIA


i) potential or expected changes in groundwater quality for any aquifer resulting from project operations;

6 3 5 67-91

ii) the effects from the Project and cumulative effects on local and regional groundwater regimes, including vertical gradients and aquifer recharge rates and changes resulting from any proposed diversions;

6 3 4 25-66

iii) an inventory of all groundwater users. Identify water use conflicts and proposed resolutions;

3 6

3 3

11 4

79 33

iv) the potential impact of decreased recharge to aquifers under prolonged drought conditions and the potential impacts of groundwater withdrawal due to project activities under drought conditions;

6 3 4 25-66

v) the effect of groundwater withdrawal/dewatering and its implications for other environmental resources, including habitat diversity and quantity, surface water quality and quantity, vegetation, wetlands and soil saturation;

7 4 5 59

vi) a numerical model to obtain a long-term prediction of the effects due to groundwater withdrawal/dewatering; discuss model validation. Provide details (e.g., location, completion) on any observation well network used to calibrate the model;

6

3 4 26

vii) the inter-relationship of the groundwater to the surface water and the potential for impacts on water quality and quantity due to recharge from and discharge to local waterbodies and wetlands; and

6 6 6 6

3 3 4 Appendix 5G

3 4 4 All

17-24 25-66 55-57 All

viii) the probability of re-injecting mine depressurization water from the aquifer beneath the bituminous sands, the target aquifer segment, its location and capacity to absorb and release injected water, and the chemical compatibility of the injection and formation water; the potential for contaminant migration in groundwater from and its impact on receiving surface waters; and

n/a n/a n/a n/a

h) a conceptual plan and implementation program for the protection of groundwater resources, including the following:

— — — —

i) the early detection of potential contamination and remediation planning;

2 6

5 3

7 5

19 87

ii) groundwater remediation options in the event that adverse effects are detected; and 1 7 6 29-33

iii) monitoring the sustainability of groundwater production or dewatering effects.

2 6

5 3

7 6

19 93-95


i) major aquifers, aquitards and aquicludes, and groundwater flow direction and velocity. Include Quaternary deposits and bedrock formations down to the Devonian including the bitumen-producing zones and any disposal zones;

3 3 3 3 6

3 3 3 3 3

6 7 8 9 3

23-36 37-43 45-57 59-76 17-21


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject j) the lithology, stratigraphic and structural continuity,

thickness, hydraulic properties and groundwater quality of the geologic units in the Study Areas;

3 3 3 3 6

3 3 3 3 3

6 7 8 9 3

23-36 37-43 45-57 59-76 17-21

k) maps and cross-sections that include groundwater table and piezometric surfaces based on identifiable groundwater systems and accurate data sources, such as drill holes; and

3 3 3 3 6

3 3 3 3

6

8 9 3

23-36 37-43 45-57

17-21

7

59-76 3

l) potential aquifers for any deep disposal of wastewater. Characterize any formations chosen for deep well disposal, including water quality, chemical compatibility and containment potential within the disposal zone.

n/a n/a n/a n/a

5.6.6 Surface Water Discuss baseline hydrological conditions in the Study Areas.

Describe the regional hydrology of the Muskeg River basin prior to oil sands mining in the basin. Identify project activities that may affect surface water during all stages of the Project, including site preparation, construction, operation, reclamation and decommissioning. Provide an inventory of all surface water users in the Study Areas. Discuss the following:

— — — —


3 3 6 6 6 6

4 5 2

4 4

1 1 2 2

2

3 8 3-5 8-9 11-16 17-18

4 2

b) the impacts of water withdrawals. Include cumulative effects and consider emergency operating, low-flow conditions and in-stream flow needs; 6

5 4

10 4

35-36 109-113

2

c) the effect on vegetation, wildlife, fish and fish habitat of withdrawing water from any potential surface water source to meet the requirements for the Project during a range of seasonal flow regimes;

6 6 6 6 6 7

4 4 4 6

6 4

4 4 4 4 5 6 5

36-48

90-102 38-67 85-87 101-103 60-84

6 60-84

6

d) the potential impact of any alteration in flows, including all temporary and permanent stream realignments or other disturbances, their extent and duration; discuss proposed mitigation measures;

6 6 6 6

4

4 4

4 4 4 5

36-48 58-84 90-102 119-122

4

e) buffers for streams and waterbodies in the Local Study Area and their rationale;

1 11 11

2 3

10 15-20 1

f) the pre- and post-disturbance alignment and condition of all ephemeral and permanent streams and waterbodies, including those created by the Project. Consider:

— — — —



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject i) the 1:100 year flood level; including the potential for

flooding during heavy precipitation events and spring runoff. Address the effects of probable maximum flood and precipitation events on ponds, containment structures and infrastructure; and

3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4

7

9 10

26 38 44 52

8

ii) other activities in the watersheds affected by the Project that, together with the proposed development, have potential to influence water quantity (e.g., existing and approved oil sands activities, commercial timber harvesting programs); and

6 4 4 31-102

g) IOR’s planned mitigation to prevent or minimize potential impacts, addressing:

— — — —

i) how permanent stream realignments and other disturbances can enhance existing or rebuilt streams to increase habitat productivity for aquatic resources and recreation potential;

2 6 4

5 4

27-32 36-67 6

ii) measures to reduce impacts to waterbodies and wetlands;

2

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

6 4

5 5 5 5 5 5

5 4 5 4 4 5 6

8

27-32 58-60 119 36-38 38-39 69

87 95 108

6 4 6

79 7

9 iii) regional initiatives such as the CEMA Surface Water

Working Group; and 6 Appendix C Sections entitled: Management and Monitoring

All All

All All

2

iv) a monitoring program to identify hydrological impacts and to assess performance of water management systems and predictive modelling in the Local Study Area.

6 5 Sections entitled: Management and Monitoring

6 All

18 All

2

Describe the existing and anticipated water quality of waterbodies. Discuss the following:

— — — —

h) the selection criteria used to determine the Study Areas, including information sources and assessment methods;

3 6 6 6 6

2 5 5 5

1 2

2 2

8 3-5 8 15-16 20-21

5

2

i) baseline water quality data, its seasonal variation and relationship to flow and other controlling factors. Consider appropriate water quality parameters; e.g., temperature, pH, conductivity, cations and anions, metals, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediment, dissolved solids, nutrients and other oil sands water contaminants, such as naphthenic acids;

3 3 3 3 3

5 5 5

5

6 7 8 9 10

25-44 45-51 53-62 63-83 5 85-89


Appendix 1

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VOLUME Section Page Subject j) describe baseline sediment quality including, but not

limited to, particle size, carbon content, organics, metals, sediment toxicity, and oil sands sediment contaminants, such as PAHs;

3 3 3 3 3 6

5 5 5 5 5 5

6 7 8 9 3 7

25-44 45-59 53-62 63-83 23-24 83-90

k) project activities that may influence water quality. Place them in context with natural forces that affect water quality and how, where and when they will act to change water quality;

6 6 6 6 6

5 5 5 5 5 5

4 5 6 7 8 9

31-64 65-75

83-90 91-104 105-118

77-81

l) calculate probability distributions for concentrations in any surface water receiving site drainage, discharges, or groundwater influenced by proposed activities;

6 Appendix: 5A; 5B; 5C; 5D

All All

m) water quality conditions in reclaimed waterbodies and any other waterbodies potentially affected by the Project. Include:

6 6 6

5

Appendix: 5A; 5B; 5C; 5D; 5E

4 9 All

61-64 105-118 All

5

i) the impacts on sediments and compare data with the Canadian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines;

5 7 9

83-90 113

6

ii) the potential effects of project and cumulative acidic deposition on water quality, aquatic biota and habitat conditions of surface waterbodies consistent with the CEMA acid deposition management framework. Identify waterbodies that are sensitive to acid deposition;

6 6 8

5 Appendix 5F 5

10 All 4

122 All 16-17

3 6 6 6

5 5 5 Appendix 5F

10 10 3 All

85-89 122 24 All

iii) the potential for seasonal variations in acid input to waterbodies (spring acid pulse);

iv) any water quality implications of the tailings deposits, including the amount and quality of water or leachate released, their permeability and groundwater characteristics;

6 6 6

5 Appendix 5A Appendix 5E

4 3 All

27-64 17-23 All

v) any other activities in the watersheds affected by the Project that, together with the proposed development, have potential to influence water quality (e.g., existing and approved oil sands activities and commercial timber harvesting programs). Discuss the potential changes in water quality anticipated from these other activities during the life of the proposed development. Consider their magnitude, extent, timing, duration and significance; and

6 6 6 6 6 6 6

3 3 5 5 5 5 5

4 5 4 5 6 7 8

25-66 67-91 31-64 65-75 77-81 83-90 91-104

vi) water quality of the reclaimed site; 6 6 6

5 5 5

4 5 9

31-64 65-75 105-118



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject n) a comparison of existing and predicted water quality,

using as appropriate, the Surface Water Quality Guidelines for Use in Alberta, the Canadian Water Quality Guidelines and relevant United States Environmental Protection Agency Guidelines. Consider the recommended procedures described in the document entitled: “Protocol to Develop Alberta Water Quality Guidelines for Protection of Freshwater Aquatic Life”;

3 3 3 3 6 6

6

5 5 5 5 5

5

6 7 8 9 3 4

All

25-44 45-51 53-62 63-83 23-24 27-64 105-118

5 9 6

All Appendix 5B; 5C; 5D; 5E

o) proposed mitigation plans; 6 6 6 6 6

5 5 5 5 5 5

5 6 7 8 9

38 69 79 87 95 108

4

6

p) the residual effects for each stage of the Project, including post-reclamation. Predict and describe water and sediment quality conditions and suitability for aquatic biota in constructed waterbodies, such as end pit lakes; and

6 5 8

5 Appendix: 5B; 5C; 5D; 5E 5

4-10 All

All All All All

q) proposed water quality and sediment quality monitoring programs for metals and other relevant substances; e.g., polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Consider seasonality, sampling medium (water, sediment, biota) and other factors such as, waterbodies sampled, sample sites, precipitation and runoff levels, downstream and point-source discharges.

6 6 6 6

6

5 5 5 5 5

4 5 6 7 8 9

64 75 81 90

118 103 6

5

5.6.7 Aquatic Resources Describe existing aquatic resources, e.g., fish and benthic

invertebrates, their use and potential use of associated habitats in watercourses, wetlands and other waterbodies in the Study Areas. Document the anticipated changes to aquatic resources in the Study Areas. Discuss the following:

3 3

6 6 6

6 37-140 141-160 161-172

3 7 8

6

6 6

1 2


3 6-7 5-20

b) current field data, using recognized sampling protocols, for all sensitive species, including those listed by Alberta Environment (at risk, may be at risk, and sensitive list species in the General Status of Alberta Wild Species 2000, or update) and federal Species at Risk Act (endangered, threatened, and special concern species);

3 3

6 6 6 6

6

8 3

37-140 141-160 161-172 21-28

7 3 6

c) historical and current studies on fish and other aquatic resources in the Local Study Area;

3 3 6

6 6 6

2 6-8

11 37-172 21-28 3

d) the criteria and selection process for key indicator species;

6 6 2 12-18

e) the life stages and requirements for key species and what, if any, effects the Project will have on them;

6 6 4-6 29-106

f) the aquatic biological resources in waterbodies affected by the Project, including composition, distribution, relative abundance, critical or sensitive seasonal habitat use and movement patterns;

3 6

6 6 3

37-172 21-28

6-8


Appendix 1

TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject g) the implications of any construction, operation and

reclamation activities in the Study Areas for aquatic biological resources and habitat. Clarify how stream alterations, changes to substrate conditions, stream flow conditions and water quality may affect these resources and habitat;

6 6 4-6 29-106

h) the nature of the potential effects, their duration; whether they are site-specific, local or regional in spatial extent; and the mitigation measures and habitat enhancement techniques that will be implemented to prevent or minimize any anticipated adverse effects. Discuss:

6 6 4-6 29-106

i) the potential for tainting of flesh, survival of eggs and fry, chronic or acute health effects, changes in the invertebrate community and food base; and increased stress on fish populations from release of contaminants, sedimentation, flow variations and habitat changes;

6 8 9

6

3 5 9

29-80 74-87 45-49

4 5

ii) potential impacts on riparian areas in the Local Study Area that could impact aquatic biological resources and productivity; and

6 6 4 29-80

6 6 5 81-91 iii) potential for increased fishing pressure and the potential impacts that could result from increased use of the area and increased access in the area;

i) the implications of potential effects on fish productivity and the need for access controls or other management strategies to protect the resources. Discuss plans to offset any incremental loss in the productivity. Indicate how environmental protection and compensation plans for the Project will address applicable provincial and federal policies for fish habitat, including the ‘No Net Loss Guiding Principle’;

6 6

6 6 6

1-7

5 36-38 84-85

1-41 2 4

j) programs to monitor aquatic habitat quality and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies;

6

6 6

6 6 6 6

4 5 6 7

76 90 105 109

6

k) environmental management procedures should monitoring indicate that mitigation strategies are not effective;

6

6

6 6 6 6

4 5 6 7

76 90 105 109

6

6

l) how increased habitat productivity for aquatic resources can be incorporated into permanent stream realignments and any other associated developments;

2 6

6 2-7 4 4

3-41 36-38 39-46

6

m) any monitoring programs that have been, or will be, conducted in cooperation with other oil sands operators or multi-stakeholder initiatives to identify and manage effects from the Project and to confirm the effectiveness of mitigation strategies employed; and

6

6

6 6 6

4 5

76 90 105

6 6

n) residual impacts on aquatic resources and their significance in the context of local and regional aquatic resources, including fisheries.

6 6 6

6 6

4 5 6

29-77 81-90 93-106

6

6.0 Environmental Monitoring Describe monitoring activities that IOR will undertake to verify

and manage environmental impacts, confirm performance of mitigative measures and improve environmental protection strategies to further the understanding of the Project’s impact on the environment. Discuss the following:

— — — —



TOR SECTION EIA

VOLUME Section Page Subject a) all monitoring activities and initiatives that IOR is

proposing to conduct independently of other stakeholder activities in the region, including a discussion of how such monitoring activities are compatible with regional monitoring initiatives;

2 to 9 Sections entitled: Imperial Oil Initiatives

All All

b) all monitoring activities and initiatives that IOR is proposing to conduct collaboratively with other stakeholders. Include the role that IOR anticipates taking in each of the programs;

2 to 9 Sections entitled: Management and Monitoring

All All

5 2 10 177-188 c) any monitoring activities that may be conducted outside Alberta to confirm that the Project does not impact directly or indirectly on sensitive receptors outside Alberta; and

d) mechanisms for sharing results, reviewing findings and adjusting programs should monitoring identify unanticipated consequences of IOR’s operations or mitigation plans, including:

— — — —

i) corporate adaptive management strategies; 1 2

2 3

12 5

41-43 9-11

2 2 2 3 ii) steps that IOR will take to involve regulators and public stakeholders; and

2 5 48 iii) steps to communicate unanticipated conditions to regulators and regional management forums if regional environmental conditions may be affected.

2

7.0 Public Health and Safety — — — — Describe those aspects of the Project that may have

implications for public health including the delivery of regional health services. Determine whether there may be implications for public health arising from the Project. Discuss the following:

a) the data and methods IOR used to assess impacts of the Project on human health and safety;

8 8 8

9

3 3 3 5

2 4 5 6 2

3-10 13 43 57 8-9

3

8

b) the potential health implications of the compounds that will be released to the environment from the proposed operation in relation to exposure limits established to prevent acute or chronic adverse effects on human health;

8 8 8 8

3 3 3 3

4

6 7

26,31 45-50 59-61 69-79

5

c) cumulative health effects that are likely to result from the Project in combination with other existing, approved and planned projects;

8

3 8 83

d) the potential for contamination of fish by wastewater discharges relative to fish consumption guidelines; 8

8

3 3 3

4 5 7

26-30 45-49 69-77

8

e) the potential for changes to air, water and soil quality and the bio-accumulation of contaminants in natural food sources to increase human exposure to contaminants;

8 8 8

3 3 3

4 5

26-30 45-49 69-77 7

f) anticipated follow-up work, including regional cooperative studies. Identify how such work will be implemented and coordinated with ongoing air, soil and water quality initiatives;

8 8 8 8

3 3 3 3

4 5 6 7

40-41 54 63 81


Appendix 1

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g) potential health and safety impacts due to higher regional traffic volumes, such as accident rates and severity, and the increased risk of accidental leaks and spills;

9 5 6 35-38

h) impacts of the proposed Project on potential shortages of affordable housing and the quality of health care services. Identify and discuss the mitigation plans to address these issues. Provide a summary of any discussions that have taken place with the Municipality and the Regional Health Authority concerning potential housing shortages and health care services respectively; and

9 9

5 5

6 6

40 48

i) health and safety concerns raised by stakeholders during consultation on the Project.

8 9

9

3 6 6 6

2 3 4 5

3 23-28 50-60 75-81

9


j) existing agreements with area municipalities or industry groups such as safety co-operatives, emergency response associations and municipal emergency response agencies;

2 9 5

5 6

9 52

8

k) information on samples of selected species of vegetation known to be consumed by humans;

8 8

3 Appendix 3A

3 3A.1.7

11 120

l) a summary of IOR’s emergency response plan and mitigation plans to ensure workforce and public safety during construction, operation and reclamation of the Project. Include prevention and safety measures for wildfire occurrences, accidental release or spill of chemicals to the environment and failures of structures retaining water or fluid wastes; and

2 8 3 5-6

m) how local residents will be contacted during an emergency and the type of information that will be communicated to them.

2 8 3 5-6

8.0 Historical Resources and Traditional Land Use

Provide a general overview of the results of the Historical Resources Impact Assessment (HRIA) of the Project, including any previous heritage resource studies that have been conducted in the Study Area. Provide an outline of the historical resources program and schedule of field investigations that may be required to assess and mitigate the effects of the Project on historical resources.

3 9

10 4 6

1-31 53

1-10

Provide details of IOR’s consultation with Aboriginal groups to determine the effects of traditional use of the Local Study Areas. Document any stakeholder concerns regarding the impact of the Project on the historical significance of the Study Areas and its current use by traditional users. Identify the existing and historical land users including oil sands development, tourism, forestry, fishing, hunting, traditional plant harvesting, cultural use and outdoor recreation with specific regard given to the Aboriginal peoples. Determine the impact of development on these uses and identify possible mitigation strategies.

9 9

6 6 6

3 4 5

11-23 29-50 61-75

9

9.0 Socio-Economic Factors Provide information on the socio-economic effects of the

Project. Discuss the following: — — — —

a) the selection of the Study Areas, information sources and assessment methods;

9 5 2 6-7



TOR SECTION EIA


b) the number and distribution of people who may be affected by the proposal;

9 5 3 12-14

c) the social impacts of the Project on the Study Areas and on Alberta, including:

— — — —

i) local employment and training; 9 5 4 17, 20-24 ii) local procurement; 9 5 4 17-27 iii) population changes; 9 5 5 29-31 iv) demands on local services and infrastructure; 9 5 6 33-53 v) regional and provincial economic benefits; 9 5 4 17-27 vi) trapping, hunting and fishing; and 9 5 6 34-35 vii) effects on First Nations and Metis (e.g., traditional

land use and culture); 9 5 6 34-35

d) the economic impacts of the Project on the Study Areas and on Alberta, having regard for capital, labour and other operating costs and revenue from services. In addition, discuss IOR’s policies and programs respecting the use of local, Alberta and Canadian goods and services. Provide an estimated breakdown of Alberta, other Canadian and non-Canadian industrial benefits from project management/engineering; equipment and materials; construction labour and total overall project;

9 5 4 17-27

e) the employment and business development opportunities the Project may create for local communities and the region. Provide a breakdown of the type of employment and number of employees with respect for the construction and operational workforces. Identify the source of labour for the proposed Project; and

9 5 4 17-27

f) strategies to mitigate socio-economic concerns raised by the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and other stakeholders in the region. Include a discussion on the potential impacts to housing availability and the social ramifications of that impact. Document the work with other industry partners and the Regional Municipality to continue use and development of the urban population prediction model developed for baseline socio-economic purposes.

9 5 5,6 29, 38-44

10.0 Public Consultation Requirements

Undertake a consultation program during the preparation of the EIA report including, but not limited to, the following stakeholders:

— — — —

a) residents in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo; 1 2

2 2

9 1-5

25-28 1-47

b) recognized land users of the Local Study Areas; 2 2 5 21-24

c) local First Nations and Metis directly affected by the Project;

2 2 5 12-21

d) industrial, recreational, environmental groups and individuals expressing a formal interest in the Project;

2 2 5 21-26

e) Federal, Alberta and Saskatchewan governments, and Alberta local municipalities;

2 2 5 27-29

f) directly-affected communities outside of Alberta; and 8 3 4 15

g) other operating or potential oil sands developers in the region.

2 2 5 21


Appendix 1

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Describe and document the public consultation program implemented. Record any concerns or suggestions made by the public and demonstrate how these concerns have been addressed. Discuss:

2 2 5 11-47

h) how the concerns and issues identified by IOR and stakeholders influenced the project development, design, impact mitigation and monitoring, or how it was addressed or discounted:

2 2 5 11-47

i) the type of information provided and the issues discussed, including those that have been resolved and those that remain outstanding;

2 2 5 11-47

j) in consideration of unresolved issues, the key alternatives which have been identified by IOR and stakeholders for future consultations;

2 2 5 11-47

k) plans to maintain and support the public consultation process following completion of the EIA review; and

2 2 5 11-47

l) any agreements reached with stakeholders regarding IOR’s operations and activities.

2 2 5 11-47

APPENDIX

The following information is necessary to be submitted as part of the Application under the Water Act (WA) or the Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act (EPEA). It may not be necessary to be considered as part of the EIA report completeness decision-making process under Section 53 of EPEA. Upon review of the information submitted, a final determination will be made if it is necessary for the following information to be considered as part of the EIA report completeness decision.

— — — —

Water Supply, Water Management and Wastewater Management

— — — —

Provide the following information for the Project: — — — —

a) technical information on how the water requirements for the Project will be met;

2 5 9 25-33

b) the design of facilities that will handle, treat and store wastewater streams;

1 1 2

8 9 5

5 4 8

11-13 14 21-23

c) the type and quantity of any chemicals used in wastewater treatment; and

1 9 4 14

d) design details for the potable water and sewage treatment systems for both the construction and operation stages.

1 1 2

8 9 5

5 4 9

15 14 25-33

Groundwater

Provide a detailed plan and implementation program for the protection of groundwater resources, addressing:

— — — —

a) a groundwater monitoring program for early detection of potential contamination and assistance in remediation planning;

2 6

5 3

7 5

19 87-91

b) groundwater remediation options to be considered for implementation in the event that adverse effects are detected; and

2 6

5 3

7 5

19 87-91

c) a program to monitor the sustainability of groundwater production.

2 6

5 3

7 4

19 56-64



TOR SECTION EIA


Conservation and Reclamation Plan

Provide the following information for the Project within the context of a 10-year EPEA approval period:

— — — —

a) a plan for the integration of mining, reclamation activities and closure planning within the approval period, and within the Project life span. The plan should be consistent to that provided in the EUB application and demonstrate integration with the life of mine closure plan;

2 9 5 59-77

b) a detailed schedule for annual mine development plans, and related reclamation activities;

2 9 5 62-76

c) a detailed conservation and reclamation plan including, but not limited to, the following:

— — — —

i) a discussion of soil reclamation requirements and a table of pre-disturbance land capability classes and post-disturbance land capability classes, demonstrating a return of equivalent land capability for commercial forest production in the development areas;

2 2

9 9

4 5

44-50 62-63

ii) predicted landscape, soil horizon/layer sequences of reclaimed soils that are likely to achieve equivalent land capability for commercial forest production at the development areas and discuss the possible assumptions and limitations of such approaches;

2 9 4 44-50

iii) a description and tables for approximate calculation/rating for pre- and post-disturbance land capability classes at the development areas;

2 9 4 48-49

iv) a discussion and tables of approximate reclamation material balance to achieve post-disturbance land capability ratings as specified in c) i) and ii);

2 9 5 63

v) the criteria to be used in soil salvage for reclamation; 2 9 4 44 vi) an assessment of sources/availability of suitable

reclamation materials based on pre-disturbance soil information;

2 2

9 9

4 5

9-11 63

vii) soil salvage plans indicating salvage areas techniques, depths, types, quality and volumes of soils to be salvaged, and planned use of the materials with reference to reclamation material balance. Discuss whether organic soil materials (LFH and/or peat) will be salvaged or removed;

2 2

9 9

4 5

9-11 62-63

iix) the storage and handling of soils and potential locations for soils stockpiles; and

2 9 4 20-27

ix) methods to deal with potential soil compaction and contamination;

2 9 6 79-80

d) a detailed description of the reclamation topography for all development areas, identifying contouring objectives, water development (surface and near-surface flow) and erosion control;

2 2

9 9

4 4

34-36 39-41

e) a detailed reforestation plan that is integrated with soil and topography plans, that specify the ecosites and productivity proposed for the establishment of predevelopment capabilities for traditional land use, wildlife, commercial forestry, watershed and recreation; and

2 9 4 50-58


Appendix 1

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f) possible mitigation options to reduce the potential impact from disturbance to key soil characteristics, re-vegetation practices, surface and groundwater properties.

2 2 6 6 7 7 7 7 7

9 9 3 4 3 3 3 3 4

2 6 4 4 4 5 6 7 8

5-6 79-81 30-31 58-60 20 28-29 38-39 46-47 134


Appendix 2A: Developments in the Oil Sands Region

2A Developments in the Oil Sands Region

Table of Contents

2A.1.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................. 2A-1 2A.1.1.1 IMPERIAL OIL RESOURCES VENTURES LIMITED .............................. 2A-1 2A.1.1.2 SYNCRUDE CANADA LTD........................................................................ 2A-3 2A.1.1.3 ALBIAN SANDS ENERGY INC.................................................................. 2A-5 2A.1.1.4 SHELL CANADA LIMITED ........................................................................ 2A-6 2A.1.1.5 DEVON CANADA CORPORATION........................................................... 2A-8 2A.1.1.6 CONOCO PHILLIPS CANADA................................................................. 2A-10 2A.1.1.7 JAPAN CANADA OIL SANDS LIMITED ................................................ 2A-11 2A.1.1.8 PETRO-CANADA....................................................................................... 2A-12 2A.1.1.9 PETRO-CANADA – UTS ENERGY .......................................................... 2A-13 2A.1.1.10 CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED ................................... 2A-15 2A.1.1.11 OPTI CANADA INC. / NEXEN CANADA LTD....................................... 2A-17 2A.1.1.12 DEER CREEK ENERGY LIMITED........................................................... 2A-18 2A.1.1.13 SUNCOR ENERGY INC., OIL SANDS ..................................................... 2A-20 2A.1.1.14 ENCANA CORPORATION........................................................................ 2A-22 2A.1.1.15 ORION OIL CANADA LTD. / PETROBANK ENERGY AND RESOURCES

2A-24 2A.1.1.16 BLACKROCK VENTURES INC................................................................ 2A-25 2A.1.1.17 HUSKY ENERGY INC. .............................................................................. 2A-26 2A.1.1.18 SYNENCO ENERGY INC. ......................................................................... 2A-28 2A.1.1.19 MEG ENERGY CORP................................................................................. 2A-28 2A.1.1.20 GAS PLANTS.............................................................................................. 2A-29

2A.1.1.20.1 Devon Canada Corporation................................................................. 2A-29 2A.1.1.20.2 Canadian Natural Resources Limited ................................................. 2A-30 2A.1.1.20.3 EnCana Corporation............................................................................ 2A-31 2A.1.1.20.4 Husky Energy Inc. .............................................................................. 2A-32 2A.1.1.20.5 Paramount Resources Ltd. .................................................................. 2A-33 2A.1.1.20.6 Viking Energy Royalty Trust.............................................................. 2A-34

2A.1.1.21 COMMUNITIES.......................................................................................... 2A-34 2A.1.1.22 FORESTRY.................................................................................................. 2A-36 2A.1.1.23 AGGREGATE RESOURCES...................................................................... 2A-37

2A.1.1.23.1 Birch Mountain Resources Ltd. .......................................................... 2A-37 2A.1.1.24 PIPELINES, ROADWAYS AND OTHER LINEAR DEVELOPMENTS . 2A-38

2A.1.1.24.1 Pipelines.............................................................................................. 2A-38 2A.1.1.24.2 Roadways............................................................................................ 2A-40 2A.1.1.24.3 Power Lines ........................................................................................ 2A-40

2A.1.2 BIBLIOGRAPHY............................................................................................... 2A-41 2A.1.2.1 LITERATURE CITED................................................................................. 2A-41

July 2005 Page 2A-i VOLUME 4

Appendix 2A

Table List

Table 2A-1: Imperial Oil Existing, Approved and Planned Production................................... 2A-2 Table 2A-2: Imperial Oil Disturbance Area ............................................................................. 2A-2 Table 2A-3: Imperial Oil Air Emissions................................................................................... 2A-3 Table 2A-4: Imperial Oil Proposed Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River.................. 2A-3 Table 2A-5: Syncrude Production ............................................................................................ 2A-4 Table 2A-6: Syncrude Disturbance Areas ................................................................................ 2A-4 Table 2A-7: Syncrude Air Emissions ....................................................................................... 2A-5 Table 2A-8: Syncrude Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River ...................................... 2A-5 Table 2A-9: Albian Production................................................................................................. 2A-6 Table 2A-10: Albian Disturbance Areas................................................................................... 2A-6 Table 2A-11: Albian Air Emissions ......................................................................................... 2A-6 Table 2A-12: Albian Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River ........................................ 2A-6 Table 2A-13: Shell Production ................................................................................................. 2A-7 Table 2A-14: Shell Disturbance Areas ..................................................................................... 2A-7 Table 2A-15: Shell Air Emissions ............................................................................................ 2A-8 Table 2A-16: Shell Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River ........................................... 2A-8 Table 2A-17: Devon Production............................................................................................... 2A-9 Table 2A-18: Devon Disturbance Areas................................................................................... 2A-9 Table 2A-19: Devon Air Emissions.......................................................................................... 2A-9 Table 2A-20: ConocoPhillips Production............................................................................... 2A-10 Table 2A-21: ConocoPhillips Disturbance Areas................................................................... 2A-10 Table 2A-22: ConocoPhillips Air Emissions.......................................................................... 2A-10 Table 2A-23: JACOS Production ........................................................................................... 2A-11 Table 2A-24: JACOS Disturbance Areas ............................................................................... 2A-11 Table 2A-25: JACOS Air Emissions ...................................................................................... 2A-11 Table 2A-26: Petro-Canada Production.................................................................................. 2A-12 Table 2A-27: Petro-Canada Disturbance Areas...................................................................... 2A-13 Table 2A-28: Petro-Canada Air Emissions............................................................................. 2A-13 Table 2A-55: Fort Hills Production ........................................................................................ 2A-14 Table 2A-56: Fort Hills Disturbance Areas ............................................................................ 2A-14 Table 2A-57: Fort Hills Air Emissions................................................................................... 2A-14 Table 2A-58: Fort Hills Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River.................................. 2A-15 Table 2A-29: Canadian Natural Production ........................................................................... 2A-15 Table 2A-30: Canadian Natural Disturbance Areas ............................................................... 2A-16 Table 2A-31: Canadian Natural Air Emissions ...................................................................... 2A-16 Table 2A-32: Canadian Natural Water Withdrawal From the Athabasca River .................... 2A-17 Table 2A-33: OPTI/Nexen Production ................................................................................... 2A-17 Table 2A-34: OPTI/Nexen Disturbance Areas ....................................................................... 2A-18 Table 2A-35: OPTI/Nexen Air Emissions.............................................................................. 2A-18 Table 2A-36: Deer Creek Production ..................................................................................... 2A-19 Table 2A-37: Deer Creek Disturbance Areas ......................................................................... 2A-19 Table 2A-38: Deer Creek Air Emissions ................................................................................ 2A-19 Table 2A-39: Suncor Production ............................................................................................ 2A-21 Table 2A-40: Suncor Disturbance Areas ................................................................................ 2A-21 Table 2A-41: Suncor Air Emissions ....................................................................................... 2A-22

Page 2A-ii July 2005 VOLUME 4

Developments in the Oil Sands Region

Table 2A-42: Suncor Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River...................................... 2A-22 Table 2A-43: EnCana Production........................................................................................... 2A-23 Table 2A-44: EnCana Disturbance Areas............................................................................... 2A-23 Table 2A-45: EnCana Air Emissions...................................................................................... 2A-24 Table 2A-46: Orion (Petrobank) Production .......................................................................... 2A-25 Table 2A-47: Orion (Petrobank) Disturbance Areas .............................................................. 2A-25 Table 2A-48: Orion (Petrobank) Air Emissions ..................................................................... 2A-25 Table 2A-49: BlackRock Production...................................................................................... 2A-26 Table 2A-50: BlackRock Disturbance Areas.......................................................................... 2A-26 Table 2A-51: BlackRock Air Emissions................................................................................. 2A-26 Table 2A-52: Husky Production ............................................................................................. 2A-27 Table 2A-53: Husky Disturbance Areas ................................................................................. 2A-27 Table 2A-54: Husky Air Emissions........................................................................................ 2A-27 Table 2A-59: Synenco Production.......................................................................................... 2A-28 Table 2A-60: Synenco Disturbance Areas.............................................................................. 2A-28 Table 2A-61: Synenco Air Emissions..................................................................................... 2A-28 Table 2A-62: MEG Oil Sands Production for Planned Developments .................................. 2A-29 Table 2A-63: MEG Disturbance Areas................................................................................... 2A-29 Table 2A-64: MEG Air Emissions ......................................................................................... 2A-29 Table 2A-65: Summary of Devon Gas Plant Emissions......................................................... 2A-30 Table 2A-66: Summary of Canadian Natural Gas Plant Air Emissions................................. 2A-31 Table 2A-67: Summary of EnCana Gas Plant Emissions....................................................... 2A-32 Table 2A-68: Summary of Husky Gas Plant Emissions......................................................... 2A-33 Table 2A-69: Summary of Paramount Gas Plant Emissions .................................................. 2A-33 Table 2A-70: Summary of Viking Energy Gas Plant Emissions............................................ 2A-34 Table 2A-71: Summary of Environmental Information for Municipalities............................ 2A-36 Table 2A-72: Northland Forest Products Air Emissions ........................................................ 2A-37 Table 2A-73: Birch Mountain Production .............................................................................. 2A-38 Table 2A-74: Birch Mountain Disturbance Areas .................................................................. 2A-38 Table 2A-75: Birch Mountain Air Emissions......................................................................... 2A-38 ♦

July 2005 Page 2A-iii VOLUME 4

Appendix 2A: Developments in the Oil Sands Region

2A.1.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix provides information on the oil sands regional developments considered in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The information is taken from information provided directly by the developers, from applications and EIAs, from web sites and from press releases.

The developments considered in this appendix include open pit oil sands mining operations, extraction plants, upgraders, steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) and other in situ operations. In addition, information is provided on natural gas operations in the oil sands region, large private aggregate resource developments as well as linear developments such as pipelines and transmission lines.

The information on each of the oil sands developments described in this appendix includes:

• relevant information on the type of operation or operations

• the existing and approved as well as planned development production (in either barrels of bitumen or barrels of synthetic crude oil)

• disturbance footprint

• air emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), fine particulate matter with nominal diameters smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and total reduced sulphur (TRS)

• water withdrawal volumes from the Athabasca River (if applicable)

2A.1.1.1 Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited

Imperial Oil is the operator of the following developments:

• Cold Lake In-situ Project including the Nabiye and Mahihkan North Expansion

• Kearl Oil Sands Project–Mine Development

Imperial Oil was the first operator to develop heavy oil resources in the Cold Lake region. Initial approvals were for various pilot sites, including Leming which continues operation today. Imperial Oil received approval for its Cold Lake Production Project in 1983, with subsequent approvals for the Maskwa development area, the Mahihkan development area, the Mahkeses development area and the Nabiye development area. Imperial Oil’s Cold Lake facility currently operates with more than 3000 active wells.

July 2005 Page 2A-1 VOLUME 4

Appendix 2A

The Kearl project is described in Volume 1 of this application.

Information for the Imperial Oil Cold Lake projects was incorporated into the air component of the EIA.

For information on Imperial Oil production, disturbance areas, air emissions and water withdrawals for the Kearl project, see Tables 2A-1, 2A-2, 2A-3 and 2A-4.

Table 2A-1: Imperial Oil Existing, Approved and Planned Production

Component Status Production

(bpd) Cold Lake In-Situ Plants Existing 126,000 (b) Nabiye and Mahihkan North Expansion Approved 30,000 (b) Kearl project Project 345,000 (b) Total 501,000 (b)

NOTE: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity.

Table 2A-2: Imperial Oil Disturbance Area

Component Status Land Disturbance

(ha) Cold Lake In-Situ Project Existing 2,646 Nabiye and Mahihkan North Expansion Approved 1,602 Kearl project Project 18,622(a)

Total 22,870 NOTE: (a) Value represents footprint without consideration of reclamation.

Page 2A-2 July 2005 VOLUME 4


Table 2A-3: Imperial Oil Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendarday SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case

Cold Lake In-Situ Project 14.75 14.75 10.09 8.19 0.89 0.59 0.00

Nabiye and Mahihkan North Expansion 3.81 3.81 2.70 2.70 0.67 0.13 0.00

Total(c) 18.56 18.56 12.80 10.89 1.56 0.72 0.00

Potential Development Case

Cold Lake In-Situ Project 14.75 14.75 10.09 8.19 0.89 0.59 0.00

Nabiye and Mahihkan North Expansion 3.81 3.81 2.70 2.70 0.67 0.13 0.00

Kearl project 0.67 0.67 42.68 28.60 1.97 74.01(b) 0.36(b)

Total(c) 19.23 19.23 55.47 39.49 3.52 74.33 0.36 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These

designations are used for modeling purposes. (b) VOC and TRS emissions for the Kearl project include variable emission rates from the ETA (see Volume 5, Appendix 2A). The

daily emissions presented include ETA emissions that are based on the annual average emission rates. (c) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the

individual values.

Table 2A-4: Imperial Oil Proposed Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River

Proposed License Applications for Water Allocation (Million m3/yr)(a)

Temporary Diversion Licence

Interim Licences Licences

Total Withdrawals

ReturnFlows

Net Water Allocations

0 0 104 104 0 104 NOTE: (a) Water withdrawal only for the Kearl project.

2A.1.1.2 Syncrude Canada Ltd.

The Syncrude Canada Ltd. (Syncrude) operations include:

• Mildred Lake Mine

• Aurora North Mine

• Aurora South Mine

• Mildred Lake Upgrader (including Emissions Reduction Program [ERP])

The Syncrude operations include open pit mines, utilities plant, bitumen extraction plant and an upgrading facility that processes bitumen and produces light, sweet crude oil for domestic consumption and export. The Syncrude mining


Appendix 2A

operation includes draglines, bucketwheels, and truck and shovels. Production from the Syncrude operation began in 1978.

The assumptions made for the Syncrude operations are that it includes: land development in association with its open pit mining operations, upgrading operation and associated infrastructure, truck and shovel open pit mining operations, water withdrawal from the Athabasca River and air emissions associated with facility operations and the mining fleet. Detailed Closure and Conservation and Reclamation (C&R) Plans are available for the Syncrude operations.

For information on Syncrude production, disturbance areas, air emissions and water withdrawals, see Tables 2A-5, 2A-6, 2A-7 and 2A-8.

Table 2A-5: Syncrude Production

Component Status Capacity

(bpd) Syncrude Mildred Lake Mining and Extraction Existing/Approved 220,000 (b)

Aurora North, open pit mine Existing/Approved 195,000 (b) Aurora South, open pit mine Approved 195,000 (b) Mildred Lake Upgrader Existing/Approved 474,000 (s) Total 474,000 (s) NOTES: (s) = Synthetic crude oil. (b) = Bitumen production.

Table 2A-6: Syncrude Disturbance Areas

Component Status Disturbance

(ha) Mildred Lake Existing/Approved 18,411(a)

Aurora North Existing/Approved 7,781 Aurora South Approved 8,249 Total 34,441 NOTE: (a) Value represents original disturbance footprint without consideration of reclamation.



Table 2A-7: Syncrude Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Mildred Lake Upgrader/ERP 67.06 100.06 61.73 81.01 6.59 58.17 1.62

Aurora North 0.04 0.04 15.48 3.74 0.56 7.90 0.06 Aurora South 0.03 0.03 12.28 2.94 0.48 7.77 0.06 Total(b) 67.12 100.12 89.49 87.69 7.63 73.84 1.75 Potential Development Case Mildred Lake Upgrader/ERP 67.06 100.06 61.73 81.01 6.59 58.17 1.62

Aurora North 0.04 0.04 15.48 3.74 0.56 7.90 0.06 Aurora South 0.03 0.03 12.28 2.94 0.48 7.77 0.06 Total(b) 67.12 100.12 89.49 87.69 7.63 73.84 1.75 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These

designations are used for modeling purposes. (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the

individual values.

Table 2A-8: Syncrude Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River

Existing Licences and Licence Applications for Water Allocations (Million m3)


Interim Licence Licence

Total Withdrawals

Return Flows


0 0 61.7 61.7 0 61.7

2A.1.1.3 Albian Sands Energy Inc.

The Albian Sands Energy Inc. (Shell Canada Limited, Chevron Canada Resources and Western Oil Sands) (Albian) is the operator of the Muskeg River Mine Project, which is located on the western portion of Lease 13 about 75 km north of Fort McMurray. The project includes an open pit truck and shovel mining operation, extraction and utilities operations. Bitumen product is shipped via pipeline to an upgrading facility (Scotford) near Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. The Muskeg River Mine began production in 2002.

The assumptions made for the Albian operations are that it includes: land development in association with its open pit mining operations, bitumen extraction and associated infrastructure (e.g., utilities), truck and shovel open pit


Appendix 2A

mining operation, water withdrawal from the Athabasca River and air emissions associated with extraction facility operations and the mining fleet. Detailed Closure and C&R Plans are available for the Muskeg River Mine Project.

For information on Albian production, disturbance areas, air emissions and water withdrawals, see Tables 2A-9, 2A-10, 2A-11 and 2A-12.

Table 2A-9: Albian Production


(ha) Muskeg River Mine Existing/Approved 155,000 (b) Muskeg River Mine Expansion Potential 115,000 (b) Total 270,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity.

Table 2A-10: Albian Disturbance Areas


(ha) Muskeg River Mine Existing/Approved 4,383 Muskeg River Mine Expansion Potential 8,075 Total 12,458

Table 2A-11: Albian Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]


Muskeg River Mine 0.20 0.20 22.62 23.42 1.37 13.12 0.07


Muskeg River Mine Expansion 0.61 0.61 31.68 27.03 1.61 26.80 0.13

NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).

Table 2A-12: Albian Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River

Existing Licenses and License Applications for Water Allocations (Million m3) Temporary Diversion

License Interim License License

Total Withdrawals

Return Flows


0 0 55.1 55.1 0 55.1

2A.1.1.4 Shell Canada Limited

The Shell Canada Limited (Shell) project includes the Jackpine Mine – Phase 1 operation, which is located on the eastern portion of Lease 13. The truck and



shovel operation involves mining and processing of oil sands to produce a diluted bitumen product. Other infrastructures include tailings schemes and a 160 MW (megawatt) cogeneration plant and power distribution facilities. Commissioning and start up is planned for 2010, where a targeted production rate of 200,000 bpd is expected, while closure is planned in 2030.

The assumptions made for the Jackpine Mine – Phase 1 operations are that it includes: land development in association with its open pit mining operations and associated infrastructure, truck and shovel open pit mining operation, water withdrawal from the Muskeg River and air emissions associated with facility operations and the mining fleet. Detailed Closure and C&R Plans are available for Jackpine Mine – Phase 1.

A planned project, Jackpine Mine – Phase 2, includes additional resources located on Leases 88 and 89 that could be mined to extend the life of the overall development and allow for future production growth of about 100,000 bpd to sustain Shell production.

For information on Shell production, disturbance areas, air emissions and water withdrawals, see Tables 2A-13, 2A-14, 2A-15 and 2A-16.

Table 2A-13: Shell Production


(bpd) Jackpine Mine – Phase 1 Approved 200,000 (b) Jackpine Mine – Phase 2 Potential 100,000 (b) NOTES: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity. Planned production across the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) is to achieve 500,000 plus bpd.

Table 2A-14: Shell Disturbance Areas


(ha) Jackpine Mine – Phase 1 Approved 8,150 Jackpine Mine – Phase 2 Potential 9,230 Total 17,380


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-15: Shell Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Jackpine Mine – Phase 1 0.33 0.33 23.43 15.43 1.04 18.68 0.09 Potential Development Case Jackpine Mine – Phase 1 and Phase 2 0.50 0.50 26.14 18.34 1.29 26.77 0.13

NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These designations are used for modeling purposes.

Table 2A-16: Shell Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River

Existing Licenses and License Applications for Water Allocations (Million m3)

Year

Temporary Diversion License


Total Withdrawals

Return Flows

Net WaterAllocations

2010 – 2018 0 0 63.5 63.5 0 63.5 Jackpine Mine – Phase 1 2018 – 2031 0 0 35.3 35.3 0 35.3

Jackpine Mine – Phase 2 0 0 35.3 35.3 0 35.3

2A.1.1.5 Devon Canada Corporation

The Devon Canada Corporation (Devon) Dover development includes the operation of a steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operation formerly known as the AOSTRA Underground Test Facility, as well as a proposed in-situ development, the Jackfish SAGD Project.

The Devon developments are considered for contributions to air quality and terrestrial disturbance. All water is obtained from, and disposed to groundwater systems.

Devon (formerly Northstar Dover), together with Imperial Oil, Petro-Canada, Chevron Canada, Gibson Petroleum, and the federal and provincial governments, announced plans in June 2001 to establish a new pilot project at the Dover site. The new pilot project is designed to test systems that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with the in-situ operation by 85 percent (Edmonton Journal, June 5, 2001). The project will involve an eight-year test in which propane, rather than steam, is injected into the bitumen reservoir. Parallel wells will be used to remove the oil, then recycle the propane solvent.

The Devon Jackfish SAGD Project was approved by regulators in 2004. The Jackfish SAGD Project is planned to be located in an area about 15 km



(kilometre) east of Conklin and is planned as a 35,000 bpd SAGD project with a 20-year operational life. If a decision is made to proceed, construction could begin as early as 2005.

For information on Devon production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-17, 2A-18 and 2A-19.

Table 2A-17: Devon Production


(bpd) Dover SAGD In-Situ and Pilot Project Existing 2,000 (b) Jackfish SAGD Project Approved 35,000 (b) Total 37,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity.

Table 2A-18: Devon Disturbance Areas


(ha) Dover SAGD In-Situ and Pilot Project Existing 453 Jackfish SAGD Project Approved 238 Total 691

Table 2A-19: Devon Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Dover SAGD In-Situ Project 0.50 0.50 0.33 0.12 0.02 0.01 0.00

Jackfish SAGD Project 2.32 2.32 1.22 1.58 0.18 0.12 0.00 Total(b) 2.82 2.82 1.55 1.70 0.20 0.13 0.00 Potential Development Case Dover SAGD In-Situ Project 0.50 0.50 0.33 0.12 0.02 0.01 0.00

Jackfish SAGD Project 2.32 2.32 1.22 1.58 0.18 0.12 0.00 Total(b) 2.82 2.82 1.55 1.70 0.20 0.13 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These designations are used for modeling purposes. (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of

the individual values.


Appendix 2A

2A.1.1.6 Conoco Phillips Canada

The ConocoPhillips Canada (ConocoPhillips) Surmont Pilot and Commercial Oil Sands Project includes a currently operating SAGD pilot and a planned commercial SAGD operation located about 60 km southeast of Fort McMurray. The target production for the full ConocoPhillips Surmont development is 100,000 bpd of bitumen by 2012, with production to start in 2006.

This development is considered from the point of view of air quality and terrestrial disturbance. All water is obtained from, and disposed to groundwater systems.

For information on ConocoPhillips production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-20, 2A-21 and 2A-22.

Table 2A-20: ConocoPhillips Production


(bpd) Surmont Pilot Existing Surmont Commercial Approved

100,000 (b)

NOTE: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity.

Table 2A-21: ConocoPhillips Disturbance Areas


(ha) Surmont Pilot Existing 7 Surmont Commercial Approved 1,794 Total 1,801

Table 2A-22: ConocoPhillips Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Surmont Pilot and Commercial 2.85 2.85 4.71 1.97 0.26 0.07 0.00 Planned Development Case Surmont Pilot and Commercial 2.85 2.85 4.71 1.97 0.26 0.07 0.00 NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These designations are used for modeling purposes.



2A.1.1.7 Japan Canada Oil Sands Limited

The Japan Canada Oil Sands Limited (JACOS) Hangingstone In-Situ development is located southwest of Fort McMurray. A SAGD pilot development is currently operational, with production up to 6000 bpd. JACOS has disclosed plans to develop a commercial facility on its Hangingstone site.

For information on JACOS production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-23, 2A-24 and 2A-25.

Table 2A-23: JACOS Production


(bpd) Hangingstone In-Situ Pilot Existing 11,000 (b) Hangingstone SAGD Project Potential 35,000 (b) Total 46,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity.

Table 2A-24: JACOS Disturbance Areas


(ha) Hangingstone In-Situ Pilot Existing 210 Hangingstone SAGD Project Potential 532 Total 742

Table 2A-25: JACOS Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Hangingstone In-Situ Pilot 0.94 0.94 0.70 0.53 0.04 0.04 0.00 Potential Development Case Hangingstone In-Situ Pilot 0.94 0.94 0.70 0.53 0.04 0.04 0.00 Hangingstone SAGD Project 3.12 3.12 3.89 4.22 0.26 0.96 0.00 Total(b) 4.06 4.06 4.59 4.75 0.30 1.00 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These designations are used for modeling purposes. (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.


Appendix 2A

2A.1.1.8 Petro-Canada

The Petro-Canada oil sands developments include the:

• MacKay River In-Situ Project

• Meadow Creek In-Situ Project

• Lewis SAGD Project

• MacKay River Expansion SAGD Project

• Meadow Creek Expansion SAGD Project

Petro-Canada has two approved SAGD developments, one of which is currently operational. The MacKay River Project has a planned production of up to 30,000 bpd. The Meadow Creek Project is planned to be similar to the MacKay River In-Situ Project, with production planned for up to 80,000 bpd of bitumen.

Information for the MacKay River and Meadow Creek developments was incorporated into the air and terrestrial components of the EIA. Water requirements for the projects will be met using groundwater.

Petro-Canada disclosed plans for its Lewis SAGD project in February 2001. The Lewis SAGD Project will be developed in the Steepbank River area, 30 km northeast of Fort McMurray. The proposed Lewis SAGD Project would be similar to the MacKay River In-Situ Project, with production planned for up to 60,000 bpd of bitumen. Petro-Canada is currently planning expansions for its MacKay River and Meadow Creek projects.

For Information on Petro-Canada production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-26, 2A-27 and 2A-28.

Table 2A-26: Petro-Canada Production


(bpd) MacKay River In-Situ Existing 30,000 (b) Meadow Creek In-Situ Approved 80,000 (b) Lewis SAGD Project Potential 60,000 (b) MacKay River Expansion SAGD Project Potential 10,000 (b) Meadow Creek Expansion SAGD Project Potential Replacement bitumen Total 180,000 (b) NOTES: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity.



Table 2A-27: Petro-Canada Disturbance Areas


(ha) MacKay River In-Situ Existing 152 Meadow Creek In-Situ Approved 1,630 Lewis SAGD Project Potential 21,489(a)

MacKay River Expansion SAGD Project Potential 3,617(a)

Meadow Creek Expansion SAGD Project Potential 10,986(a)

Total 37,874 NOTE: (a) Represents lease area, as exact footprint not determined at this time.

Table 2A-28: Petro-Canada Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case MacKay River In-Situ 1.00 1.00 3.60 2.38 0.20 0.09 0.00 Meadow Creek In-Situ 1.51 1.51 7.20 5.61 0.48 0.25 0.00 Total(b) 2.51 2.51 10.80 7.99 0.67 0.34 0.00 Potential Development Case MacKay River In-Situ 1.00 1.00 3.60 2.38 0.20 0.09 0.00 Meadow Creek In-Situ 1.51 1.51 7.20 5.61 0.48 0.25 0.00 Lewis SAGD Project 2.03 2.03 6.82 5.30 0.45 0.23 0.00 MacKay River Expansion SAGD Project 1.21 1.21 4.36 2.88 0.24 0.11 0.00

Meadow Creek Expansion SAGD Project 1.51 1.51 7.20 5.61 0.48 0.25 0.00

Total(b) 7.25 7.25 29.20 21.79 1.84 0.93 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These

designations are used for modeling purposes. (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the

individual values.

2A.1.1.9 Petro-Canada – UTS Energy

UTS Energy Corporation (UTS) completed the acquisition of the TrueNorth Energy L.P. and TrueNorth Energy Corporation share of the Fort Hills Oil Sands Project in July 2004. Petro-Canada acquired 60 percent of the Fort Hills operation in May 2005. The Fort Hills Oil Sands Project, which is located about 90 km north of Fort McMurray just north of the Syncrude Aurora North Mine, was approved in October 2002.


Appendix 2A

Petro-Canada and UTS are in the process of re-scoping the project.

The project, as considered within this EIA, is based on the original approval conditions issued in October 2002. The approval of the project means that it is included in the Existing and Approved Case although full development progress and timing is undetermined. For the purposes of this EIA, the project has been assessed as approved, with production up to 190,000 bpd of bitumen. The assumptions made for the Fort Hills operation are that it includes: land development in association with its open pit mining operations and associated infrastructure, truck and shovel open pit mining operation, water withdrawal from the Athabasca River and air emissions associated with facility operations and the mining fleet. Detailed Closure and C&R Plans are available for the approved project.

For information on Fort Hills production, disturbance areas, air emissions and water withdrawals, see Tables 2A-55, 2A-56, 2A-57 and 2A-58.

Table 2A-55: Fort Hills Production


(bpd) Fort Hills Oil Sands Project Existing and Approved 190,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-56: Fort Hills Disturbance Areas

Component Status Disturbance (ha)

Fort Hills Oil Sands Project Existing and Approved 12,584

Table 2A-57: Fort Hills Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Fort Hills Oil Sands Project 1.73 1.73 26.74 5.24 0.72 15.14 0.00 Potential Development Case Fort Hills Oil Sands Project 1.73 1.73 26.74 5.24 0.72 15.14 0.00 NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).



Table 2A-58: Fort Hills Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River

Existing Licences and Licence Applications for Water Allocations (Million m3) Planned Fort Hills Project Withdrawals


Interim Licences Licences

Total Withdrawals

Return Flows


0 0 39 39 0 39

2A.1.1.10 Canadian Natural Resources Limited

The Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural) oil sands operations include:

• Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ Project

• Burnt Lake Project

• Kirby Pilot

• Horizon Oil Sands Project

The Canadian Natural Burnt Lake Project, and Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ projects are located in the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range. The Kirby Pilot Project is located immediately north of the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range. The Canadian Natural Horizon Oil Sands Project is located on oil sands leases 6, 7, 10 and 18, which are located in an area about 15 km north of the community of Fort McKay, on the west side of the Athabasca River. Canadian Natural began construction of the Horizon Project in 2004, with commissioning and initial production scheduled for 2008. Full target production is targeted for 2011.

For information on Canadian Natural production, disturbance areas, air emissions and water withdrawals, see Tables 2A-29, 2A-30, 2A-31 and 2A-32.

Table 2A-29: Canadian Natural Production


(bpd) Kirby Pilot Existing 1,600 (b) Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ Project Existing 90,000 (b) Burnt Lake Project Existing 900 (b) Horizon Oil Sands Project Approved 270,000 (b) Horizon In-Situ Project Potential replacement (b) Primrose East In-Situ Oil Sands Project Potential 30,000 (b) Total 392,500 (b) NOTE: (b) Annual average bitumen production approximate facility capacity.


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-30: Canadian Natural Disturbance Areas


(ha) Kirby Pilot Existing 4 Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ Project Existing 1,288 Burnt Lake Project Existing 456 Horizon Oil Sands Project Approved 17,318 Horizon In-Situ Project Potential na Primrose East In-Situ Oil Sands Project Potential 7,218(a)

Total 26,284 NOTES: (a) Represents lease area, as exact footprint not determined at this time. na Not available.

Table 2A-31: Canadian Natural Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Horizon Oil Sands Project 7.63 12.70 48.67 33.44 2.31 73.75(b) 1.33(b)

Kirby Pilot 0.15 0.15 0.23 0.18 0.02 0.02 0.00 Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ Project 8.50 8.50 12.25 10.88 0.92 0.80 0.02

Burnt Lake Project 0.30 0.30 1.20 1.01 0.09 0.07 0.00 Total(c) 16.58 21.66 62.35 45.51 3.34 74.64 1.35 Potential Development Case Horizon Oil Sands Project 7.63 12.70 48.67 33.44 2.31 73.75(b) 1.33(b)

Primrose and Wolf Lake In-Situ Project 8.50 8.50 12.25 10.88 0.92 0.80 0.02

Burnt Lake Project 0.30 0.30 1.20 1.01 0.09 0.07 0.00 Horizon In-Situ Project 0.39 0.39 2.10 2.04 0.18 0.13 0.00 Primrose East In-Situ Oil Sands Project 2.33 2.33 2.85 2.17 0.20 0.14 0.00

Total(c) 19.15 24.22 67.07 49.54 3.70 74.90 1.35 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). These designations are used for modeling purposes. (b) VOC and TRS emissions for the Horizon Oil Sands Project include variable emission rates from the tailings pond. The daily emissions presented include pond emissions that are based on the annual average emission rates. (c) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.



Table 2A-32: Canadian Natural Water Withdrawal From the Athabasca River

Existing Licenses and License Applications for Water Allocations (Million m3)(a)



Total Withdrawals

ReturnFlows


0 0 89.6 89.6 0 89.6

NOTE: (a) Water withdrawal only for Horizon Oil Sands Project.

2A.1.1.11 OPTI Canada Inc. / Nexen Canada Ltd.

The OPTI Canada Inc. / Nexen Canada Ltd. (OPTI/Nexen) oil sands operations include a pilot upgrader operation at Burnt Lake, a SAGD pilot on the Long Lake Project site and the approved Long Lake Project, a commercial operation designed as a 70,000 bpd SAGD facility coupled with a 140,000 bpd upgrading facility. An upgrader pilot project at Burnt Lake has recently been decommissioned. The Long Lake Project includes an in situ bitumen recovery operation, on-site upgrading operation including gasification facilities to convert upgrader by-products to syngas, and cogeneration facilities to use the syngas to produce steam and power. The Long Lake Project, which was approved in 2003, is targeted to begin production in 2005.

The OPTI/Nexen developments are considered from the point of view of air quality and terrestrial disturbance. All water is obtained from, and disposed to groundwater systems.

For information on OPTI/Nexen production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-33, 2A-34 and 2A-35.

Table 2A-33: OPTI/Nexen Production


(bpd)

Long Lake Pilot and Commercial Project Approved 73,000 (b) 140,000 (s)

Burnt Lake Pilot Decommissioned 0 NOTES: (b) Bitumen production. (s) Synthetic crude oil.


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-34: OPTI/Nexen Disturbance Areas

Component Status Land Disturbance (ha) Long Lake Pilot and Commercial Project Existing/Approved 887 Burnt Lake Pilot Decommissioned 1(reclaimed) Total 888

Table 2A-35: OPTI/Nexen Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Long Lake Commercial Project 13.68 18.42 9.88 16.43 1.39 2.65 0.11 Potential Development Case Long Lake Commercial Project 13.68 18.42 9.88 16.43 1.39 2.65 0.11 NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).

2A.1.1.12 Deer Creek Energy Limited

Deer Creek Energy Limited (Deer Creek) operates the Joslyn Project on its lease holdings, located 65 km north of Fort McMurray, near Fort McKay. The pilot plant is targeted to produce 2000 bpd. Deer Creek recently received regulatory approval for its planned SAGD Phase II operation to increase production. Deer Creek disclosed plans to expand its SAGD operation (Phase III) as well as to initiate mine development in 2004. Applications for those projects are expected to be filed with regulatory agencies in 2005 and 2006.

This development is considered from the point of view of air quality and terrestrial disturbance. All water for SAGD operations is obtained from, and disposed to groundwater systems. Definition of water supply sources for mining have not been disclosed.

For information on Deer Creek production, disturbance and air emissions, see Tables 2A-36, 2A-37 and 2A-38.



Table 2A-36: Deer Creek Production


(bpd)

Joslyn SAGD – Pilot Existing 2,000 (b)

Joslyn SAGD Commercial – Phase II Approved 10,000 (b)

Joslyn SAGD Commercial – Phase III Potential 30,000 (b)

Joslyn North Mine Phases I and II Potential 100,000 (b)

Total 142,000 (b)

NOTE: (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-37: Deer Creek Disturbance Areas


(ha) Joslyn SAGD – Pilot Existing 10 Joslyn SAGD Commercial – Phase II Approved 78 Joslyn SAGD Commercial – Phase III Potential 2,587(a)

Joslyn North Mine Phases I and II Potential 5,986 Total 8,661 NOTE: (a) Represents lease area, as exact footprint not determined at this time.

Table 2A-38: Deer Creek Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Joslyn SAGD Project - Pilot and Phase II 2.00 2.00 0.73 0.42 0.07 0.04 0.00

Potential Development Case Joslyn SAGD Project - Pilot and Phase II 2.00 2.00 0.73 0.42 0.07 0.04 0.00

Joslyn SAGD Project - Phase III and North Mine Phases I and II 8.17 8.17 14.65 9.39 0.80 9.49 0.05

Total(b) 10.17 10.17 15.39 9.81 0.87 9.53 0.05 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual

values.


Appendix 2A

2A.1.1.13 Suncor Energy Inc., Oil Sands

The Suncor Energy Inc., Oil Sands (Suncor) oil sands developments include a combination of open pit mining, in-situ operations, upgrading operations and support infrastructure. The Suncor oil sands developments include the:

• Lease 86/17 mining operation

• Fee Lot 2 developments

• Lease 86/17 Upgrading operations – including the original upgrader, Millennium Upgrader and the Millennium Coker Unit

• Steepbank Mine

• Millennium Mine

• South Tailings Pond Project

• Firebag Enhanced Thermal Solvent (ETS) Pilot

• Firebag Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) Project

• Voyageur Project

• Project Voyageur Growth Plans

Suncor also co-operates a utilities plant with TransAlta on Lease 86/17. Suncor oil sands operations began in 1967. The Suncor oil sands base operation is located on opposite sides of the Athabasca River. Those areas are connected by a bridge across the Athabasca River from the Lease 86/17 west-side operations to the Steepbank and Millennium mining operations on the east side of the Athabasca River.

The assumptions associated with the Suncor operations are that it includes: land development in association with its open pit mining operations, upgrading operation and associated infrastructure, truck and shovel open pit mining operations, in-situ operations, water withdrawal from the Athabasca River and air emissions associated with facility operations and the mining fleet. Detailed Closure and C&R Plans are available for all of the Suncor operations.

For information on Suncor production, disturbance areas, air emissions and water withdrawals, see Tables 2A-39, 2A-40, 2A-41 and 2A-42.



Table 2A-39: Suncor Production


(bpd) Suncor Lease 86/17 and Upgrading Complex, Steepbank and Millennium mines, and South Tailings Pond Project Existing/Approved 260,000 (s) Firebag Operations (ETS and SAGD) Existing/Approved 35,000 (b) Voyageur Project (North Steepbank Extension and Voyageur Upgrader) Potential 290,000 (s) Project Voyageur Growth Plans Potential Replacement bitumen Total 550,000 (s) NOTES: (s) Synthetic crude oil. (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-40: Suncor Disturbance Areas


(ha) Suncor Lease 86/17 and Upgrading Complex, Steepbank and Millennium mines, and South Tailings Pond

Existing/Approved 14,995

Fee Lot 2 Existing/Approved 745 Firebag Operations (ETS and SAGD) Existing/Approved 570 Voyageur Project - North Steepbank Extension Potential 2,753 Voyageur Project - Voyageur Upgrader Potential 1,793 Future Project Voyageur Growth Plans Potential 21,035 Total 41,891


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-41: Suncor Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Suncor Lease 86/17 and Upgrading Complex, Steepbank and Millennium mines, and South Tailings Pond

34.52 53.49 82.35 51.17 7.30 105.54(b) 0.52(b)

Firebag SAGD Project 4.42 4.42 6.35 2.54 1.01 0.16 0.04 Firebag ETS Project 0.17 0.17 0.21 0.12 0.01 0.03 0.00 Total(c) 39.11 58.08 88.91 53.83 8.31 105.73 0.95 Potential Development Case Suncor Lease 86/17 and Upgrading Complex, Steepbank and Millennium mines, and South Tailings Pond

46.74 74.58 90.08 54.08 7.54 106.99(b) 0.91(b)

Firebag SAGD Project 10.65 10.65 15.93 11.36 0.99 0.65 0.10 Firebag ETS Project 0.17 0.17 0.21 0.12 0.01 0.03 0.00 Total(c) 57.55 85.40 106.22 65.57 8.53 107.67 1.01 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) VOC and TRS emissions for the Suncor mining and upgrading operations include variable emission rates from the tailings

pond. The daily emissions presented include pond emissions that are based on the annual average emission rates. (c) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the

individual values.

Table 2A-42: Suncor Water Withdrawal from the Athabasca River

Existing Licences and Licence Applications for Water Allocations (Million m3)



Total Withdrawals

ReturnFlows


0 0 59.8 59.8 38.7 21.1 0.6 0 0 0.6 0.00 21.7

2A.1.1.14 EnCana Corporation

The EnCana Corporation (EnCana) oil sands operations include the:

• Foster Creek Pilot, Phase I, IC and II SAGD Project

• Christina Lake Project-Phases 1, 2 and 3



The EnCana Christina Lake and Foster Creek projects are SAGD developments located south of Fort McMurray in areas near Conklin, Alberta as well as in the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range. Information for the EnCana developments was incorporated into the air components of the EIA.

For information on EnCana production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-43, 2A-44 and 2A-45.

Table 2A-43: EnCana Production


(bpd) Foster Creek Pilot Existing 3,000 (b) Foster Creek Phase I Existing 30,000 (b) Foster Creek Phases IC and II Approved 80,000 (b) Christina Lake – Phase 1 Existing 10,000 (b) Christina Lake – Phases 2 and 3 Approved 60,000 (b) Total 183,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-44: EnCana Disturbance Areas

Component Status

Land Disturbance

(ha) Foster Creek Pilot and Phases I and II Existing and Approved 16,000 Christina Lake – All Phases Existing and Approved 10,000 Total 26,000


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-45: EnCana Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Foster Creek Pilot 0.24 0.24 0.39 0.18 0.02 0.72 0.00 Foster Creek Phase I and IC 2.00 2.00 3.63 2.69 0.24 0.18 0.00 Foster Creek Phase II 1.59 1.59 1.56 4.86 0.15 0.13 0.00 Christina Lake - Phase 1 1.50 1.50 0.28 0.28 0.03 0.02 0.00 Christina Lake - Phases 2 and 3 4.84 4.84 1.64 1.60 0.14 0.10 0.00 Total(b) 10.17 10.17 7.49 9.61 0.57 1.15 0.00 Potential Development Case Foster Creek Pilot 0.24 0.24 0.39 0.18 0.02 0.72 0.00 Foster Creek Phase I and IC 2.00 2.00 3.63 2.69 0.24 0.18 0.00 Foster Creek Phase II 1.59 1.59 1.56 4.86 0.15 0.13 0.00 Christina Lake - Phase 1 1.50 1.50 0.28 0.28 0.03 0.02 0.00 Christina Lake - Phases 2 and 3 4.84 4.84 1.64 1.60 0.14 0.10 0.00 Total(b) 10.17 10.17 7.49 9.61 0.57 1.15 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.

2A.1.1.15 Orion Oil Canada Ltd. / Petrobank Energy and Resources

Orion Oil Canada Ltd. (Orion), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Petrobank Energy and Resources (Petrobank), received approval for the Whitesands Pilot Project in early 2004. The Whitesands project is located on 42 sections of Orion’s oil sands leases near Conklin, Alberta.

The Whitesands Pilot Project will be the first in the region to develop a field scale test of the patented THAI (Toe-to-Heel-Air-Injection) heavy oil recovery technology. The in situ technology combines a vertical air injection well with a horizontal production well.

For information on Orion (Petrobank) production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-46, 2A-47 and 2A-48.



Table 2A-46: Orion (Petrobank) Production


(bpd) Whitesands Pilot Project Approved 1,886 (b) NOTE: (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-47: Orion (Petrobank) Disturbance Areas


(ha) Whitesands Pilot Project Approved 20.0

Table 2A-48: Orion (Petrobank) Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Whitesands Pilot Project 0.08 0.08 0.26 9.37 0.01 0.09 0.07 Potential Development Case Whitesands Pilot Project 0.08 0.08 0.26 9.37 0.01 0.09 0.07 NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).

2A.1.1.16 BlackRock Ventures Inc.

BlackRock Ventures Inc. (BlackRock) currently operates a pilot facility on its lease located to the south of the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range. The pilot facility uses two small steam generators to extract 400 bpd of bitumen. This pilot facility is a temporary facility that will be decommissioned following the construction of the recently applied for Orion EOR Project. The Orion EOR project will be developed in two phases over a 25 year project life. Information for the BlackRock operation was incorporated into the air component of the EIA.

For information on BlackRock production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-49, 2A-50 and 2A-51.


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-49: BlackRock Production


(bpd) Hilda Lake Pilot (to be decommissioned) Existing 500 (b)

Orion EOR Project Planned 20,000 (b) Total 20,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-50: BlackRock Disturbance Areas


(ha) Hilda Lake Pilot Existing 5 (will be part of commercial) Orion EOR Project Planned 3,124 Total 3,124

Table 2A-51: BlackRock Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Orion EOR Project 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.41 0.10 0.09 0.00 Potential Development Case Orion EOR Project 0.90 0.90 1.16 0.41 0.10 0.09 0.00 NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).

2A.1.1.17 Husky Energy Inc.

The Husky Energy Inc. (Husky) oil sands operations include the:

• Tucker Thermal Project

• Sunrise Thermal Project

The Tucker Thermal commercial SAGD Project is located in the Cold Lake area south of the Imperial Oil Cold Lake Project. The Tucker Thermal Project is expected to start with four wellpads, with up to 12 well pairs per wellpad. Husky expects that up to eight additional wellpads may be required over the 35-year project life.



The Husky Sunrise Thermal Project is planned for its leases located about 5 km east of Kearl Lake, which is about 60 km northeast of Fort McMurray. The Sunrise Thermal Project will use SAGD technology to develop the resource, with planned production to begin in 2008. Information from this development was incorporated into the air, groundwater and terrestrial components of the EIA.

For information on Husky production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-52, 2A-53 and 2A-54.

Table 2A-52: Husky Production


(bpd) Tucker Thermal Project Approved 30,000 (b) Sunrise Thermal Project Potential 200,000 (b) Total 230,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-53: Husky Disturbance Areas

Component Status Disturbance (ha) Tucker Thermal Project Approved 193 Sunrise Thermal Project Potential 895 Total 1,088

Table 2A-54: Husky Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Tucker Thermal Project 1.16 1.16 1.41 0.43 0.14 0.12 0.00 Potential Development Case Tucker Thermal Project 1.16 1.16 1.41 0.43 0.14 0.12 0.00 Sunrise Terminal Project 1.18 1.18 6.61 20.56 0.00 0.19 0.00 Total(b) 2.34 2.34 8.02 20.99 0.14 0.31 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.


Appendix 2A

2A.1.1.18 Synenco Energy Inc.

Synenco Energy Inc. (Synenco) disclosed its Northern Lights Project in September 2002. The Northern Lights Project area will be located about 100 km northeast of Fort McMurray (east of the Athabasca River, south of the Marguerite River, and north and east of the Firebag River). The planned project is an integrated oil sands mining, bitumen extraction and upgrading facility capable of producing 100,000 bpd of synthetic crude oil. An application and EIA for the project is planned for submission to regulators sometime in 2006, with initial production possible by 2009.

For information on Synenco production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-59, 2A-60 and 2A-61.

Table 2A-59: Synenco Production


(bpd) Northern Lights Project Potential 100,000 (s) NOTE: (s) Synthetic Crude oil.

Table 2A-60: Synenco Disturbance Areas


(ha) Northern Lights Project Potential 15,000

Table 2A-61: Synenco Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Potential Development Case Northern Lights Project 3.92 3.92 15.04 10.33 0.71 53.82 0.79NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).

2A.1.1.19 MEG Energy Corp.

MEG Energy Corp. (MEG) plans to develop a SAGD pilot and commercial operation on its oil sands leases located between Conklin and Janvier, south of Fort McMurray. The planned MEG oil sands projects include the:

• Christina Lake Regional Pilot Project

• Christina Lake Regional Commercial Project



MEG is currently targeting on submission of applications for these projects in 2005.

For information on MEG production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-62, 2A-63 and 2A-64.

Table 2A-62: MEG Oil Sands Production for Planned Developments


(bpd) Christina Lake Regional Pilot Potential 3,000 (b) Christina Lake Regional Commercial Potential 22,000 (b) Total 25,000 (b) NOTE: (b) Bitumen production.

Table 2A-63: MEG Disturbance Areas


(ha) Christina Lake Regional Pilot Potential 106 Christina Lake Regional Commercial Potential 77 Total 183

Table 2A-64: MEG Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Potential Development Case Christina Lake Regional Pilot and Commercial 0.41 0.41 0.84 0.94 0.09 0.07 0.01


2A.1.1.20 Gas Plants

Information is provided below on gas plants that were considered within the air quality section of the EIA.

2A.1.1.20.1 Devon Canada Corporation

Information on the Devon gas plant operations in the oil sands region is provided (see Table 2A-65).


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-65: Summary of Devon Gas Plant Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Hangingstone 0.00 0.00 1.09 0.08 0.00 0.03 0.00 Surmont 0.00 0.00 4.36 0.34 0.01 0.13 0.00 Surmont West 0.00 0.00 1.74 0.14 0.00 0.05 0.00 Pony Creek 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Kirby North 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 Kirby South 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.00 Chard 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 Leismer East 0.00 0.00 3.01 0.23 0.01 0.09 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 12.27 0.95 0.03 0.36 0.00 Potential Development Case Hangingstone 0.00 0.00 1.09 0.08 0.00 0.03 0.00 Surmont 0.00 0.00 4.36 0.34 0.01 0.13 0.00 Surmont West 0.00 0.00 1.74 0.14 0.00 0.05 0.00 Pony Creek 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Kirby North 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 Kirby South 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.00 Chard 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 Leismer East 0.00 0.00 3.01 0.23 0.01 0.09 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 12.27 0.95 0.03 0.36 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.

2A.1.1.20.2 Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Information on the Canadian Natural gas plant operations in the oil sands region is provided (see Table 2A-66).



Table 2A-66: Summary of Canadian Natural Gas Plant Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Chard 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cowpar 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 Kettle River 0.60 0.60 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Newby 1.08 1.08 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wiau Lake 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Kirby West 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total(b) 2.18 2.18 0.76 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.00 Potential Development Case Chard 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cowpar 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 Kettle River 0.60 0.60 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Newby 1.08 1.08 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wiau Lake 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Kirby West 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total(b) 2.18 2.18 0.76 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.

2A.1.1.20.3 EnCana Corporation

Information on the EnCana gas plant operations in the oil sands region is provided (see Table 2A-67).


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-67: Summary of EnCana Gas Plant Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case North Caribou 0.00 0.00 0.86 2.31 0.13 0.02 0.00 South Caribou 0.00 0.00 0.66 1.45 0.07 0.02 0.00 Primrose North 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.19 0.02 0.02 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 2.35 3.95 0.22 0.07 0.00 Potential Development Case North Caribou 0.00 0.00 0.86 2.31 0.13 0.02 0.00 South Caribou 0.00 0.00 0.66 1.45 0.07 0.02 0.00 Primrose North 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.19 0.02 0.02 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 2.35 3.95 0.22 0.07 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.

2A.1.1.20.4 Husky Energy Inc.

Information on the Husky gas plant operations in the oil sands region is provided (see Table 2A-68).



Table 2A-68: Summary of Husky Gas Plant Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Agnes Lake 0.00 0.00 0.71 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.00 Thornbury 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 1.15 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.00 Potential Development Case Agnes Lake 0.00 0.00 0.71 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.00 Thornbury 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 1.15 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.

2A.1.1.20.5 Paramount Resources Ltd.

Information on the Paramount Resources Ltd. (Paramount) gas plant operations in the oil sands region is provided (see Table 2A-69).

Table 2A-69: Summary of Paramount Gas Plant Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Quigley 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Hangingstone 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 Kettle River 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.00 Potential Development Case Quigley 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Hangingstone 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 Kettle River 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 Total(b) 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.08 0.00 0.02 0.00 NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum of the individual values.


Appendix 2A

2A.1.1.20.6 Viking Energy Royalty Trust

Information on the Viking Energy Royalty Trust (Viking Energy) gas plant operations in the oil sands region is provided (see Table 2A-70).

Table 2A-70: Summary of Viking Energy Gas Plant Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Existing and Approved Case Wappau 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Potential Development Case Wappau 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).

2A.1.1.21 Communities

The communities included in the baseline assessment consist of Conklin, Janvier/Chard, Anzac/Gregoire Lake, Fort McMurray, Fort McKay, Fort Fitzgerald and Fort Chipewyan, as described below. The municipalities are considered from the point of view of:

• residents (human health)

• surface disturbance (terrestrial)

• some air emissions

• resource use

Municipal development, planned in association with the planned oil sands developments in the Regional Study Area (RSA), is available for Fort McMurray. Projected developments for communities within the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB) were made based on this municipal development plan (RMWB 2000a). Environmental information for the communities is provided (see Table 2A-71).

• Anzac: Anzac is located 45 km southeast of Fort McMurray on Highway 881. The population of Anzac in 2004 was 647.

• Conklin: Conklin is located about 140 km southeast of Fort McMurray at the convergence of the Jackfish River and Christina Lake. Conklin has seen a slight decrease in population since 2000 to 210 residents in 2004.

• Fort Chipewyan: Fort Chipewyan is located about 225 km north of Fort McMurray. The population of Fort Chipewyan in 2004 was 1146.



• Fort Fitzgerald: The population of Fort Fitzgerald in 2004 was four people, and is located 200 km north of Fort Chipewyan. Fort Fitzgerald borders the Northwest Territories and Alberta.

• Fort McMurray: Located 450 km from Edmonton, Fort McMurray has a population of roughly 56,000 residents. Fort McMurray is governed by the municipality of Wood Buffalo and is the principal shopping centre in the oil sands region.

• Fort McKay: Fort McKay is located 55 km north of Fort McMurray on the west side of the Athabasca River. Fort McKay has a population of roughly 400 residents. It is located near the oil sands plants which is the economy base for the community.

• Gregoire Lake Estates: Located 32 km southeast of Fort McMurray next to Gregoire Lake Provincial Park, on the shores of Gregoire (Willow) Lake. The local population in 2004 was 206.

• Janvier: Janvier is situated about 100 km southeast of Fort McMurray. The current population in this area is 112, with an expected stable growth. Most of the population is employed in the oil, gas and forestry industry.

• Mariana Lake: Mariana Lake is located along Highway 63, 100 km south of Fort McMurray. With a population of eight residents, Mariana Lake primarily services travellers of Highway 63.


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-71: Summary of Environmental Information for Municipalities

Emissions(a)

Component Stream-day SO2 [t/sd](b)

Calendar-day SO2 [t/cd] (b)

NOX [t/d] (b)

VOC [t/d]


Anzac 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.20

Conklin 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09

Fort Chipewyan 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.48

Fort Fitzgerald n/d n/d n/d n/d

Fort McMurray 0.16 0.16 1.02 2.83

Fort McKay 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Gregoire Lake Estates n/d n/d n/d n/d

Janvier 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05

Marianna Lake n/d n/d n/d n/d

La Loche n/d n/d n/d 0.70

Traffic(c) 0.06 0.06 4.17 0.50

Total(d) 0.25 0.25 5.26 4.85


Anzac 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.20

Conklin 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09

Fort Chipewyan 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.48

Fort Fitzgerald n/d n/d n/d n/d

Fort McMurray 0.25 0.25 1.57 4.37

Fort McKay 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Gregoire Lake Estates n/d n/d n/d n/d

Janvier 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05

Marianna Lake n/d n/d n/d n/d

La Loche n/d n/d n/d 0.70

Traffic(c) 0.12 0.12 7.98 0.95

Total(d) 0.39 0.39 9.62 6.85

NOTES: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d). (b) Community emissions for SO2 and NOX were used for regional predictions only. Predictions of exposure levels within

communities used background concentrations to represent local sources of SO2 and NOX emissions. (c) Includes traffic on major roadways north of Fort McMurray. (d) Some numbers are rounded for presentation purposes. Therefore, it may appear that the totals do not equal the sum

of the individual values. n/d No data.

2A.1.1.22 Forestry

Timber rights within much of the oil sands region have been granted to Alberta Pacific Forest Industries Inc. (Al-Pac) under a Forest Management Agreement (FMA) (AEP 1998). Al-Pac defines its development plans in detailed and annual operating plans (e.g., Al-Pac 2004). Some coniferous timber rights in the development area north of Fort McMurray belong to Northland Forest Products Ltd. (Northland). Al-Pac is actively harvesting forest resource throughout the RSA. Forestry activities for the RSA are based on the forest management plans



for Al-Pac. Forestry considerations involve no reclassification of existing soils or terrain since these considerations centre on the harvesting of timber resources. Forest cutblocks for the baseline conditions are allocated into three groups:

• existing cutblocks (revegetated)

• recent cutblocks (not revegeted)

• future cutblocks

One air emission source is considered in the EIA with respect to forestry activities, that being the operation of the Northland mill north of Fort McMurray. For the Northland air emissions considered in the EIA, see Table 2A-72.

Table 2A-72: Northland Forest Products Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Northland Forest Products 0.02 0.02 0.19 25.00 0.19 2.12 0.00


2A.1.1.23 Aggregate Resources

2A.1.1.23.1 Birch Mountain Resources Ltd.

Birch Mountain Resources Ltd. (Birch Mountain) holds metallic and industrial mineral rights over an extensive portion of the Athabasca Valley. Birch Mountain submitted an application and EIA for development of the Muskeg Valley Quarry in March 2004. The quarry will be located on the east side of the Athabasca River in an area east of Fort McKay.

The Muskeg Valley Quarry will include a truck and shovel waste rock and overburden operation, shovel and remote crushing operations for the limestone, sorting and washing operations as well as load weighing facilities. The operation is scheduled to begin in 2005 and operate through three phases to closure in 2035.

This development is considered from the point of view of air quality and terrestrial disturbance. All water is obtained from, and disposed to groundwater systems.

For information on Birch Mountain production, disturbance areas and air emissions, see Tables 2A-73, 2A-74 and 2A-75.


Appendix 2A

Table 2A-73: Birch Mountain Production

Component Status Peak Capacity

(tonnes per year of limestone) Muskeg Valley Quarry Potential 6,900,000

Table 2A-74: Birch Mountain Disturbance Areas

Component Status Disturbance (ha)

Muskeg Valley Quarry Potential 255

Table 2A-75: Birch Mountain Air Emissions

Emissions(a)

Component

Stream-day SO2

[t/sd]

Calendar-day SO2

[t/cd] NOX [t/d]

CO [t/d]

PM2.5 [t/d]

VOC [t/d]

TRS [t/d]

Potential Development Case Muskeg Valley Quarry 0.02 0.02 0.18 0.23 0.09 0.00 0.00 NOTE: (a) Emissions are expressed as tonnes per stream-day (t/sd), tonnes per calendar-day (t/cd) or tonnes per day (t/d).

2A.1.1.24 Pipelines, Roadways and Other Linear Developments

Pipelines, roadways and other linear developments such as power lines primarily involve impacts to vegetative cover, although roadways may impact terrain units Other environmental impacts considered involve the influence of these developments on wildlife (e.g., barriers to movement, areas of increased wildlife and vehicle collisions).

It has been assumed for the EIA that no reclassification of the existing soils or terrain is required. It is also assumed that during the operational life of pipeline corridors, herbaceous vegetation is established, although establishment of woody species is discouraged. Following abandonment of the linear corridors, invasion of woody species from nearby vegetation communities ensures compatible vegetative cover.

2A.1.1.24.1 Pipelines

The major pipelines in the oil sands development area, the product within the pipeline and the disturbance footprint in the oil sands region include:

• Alberta Oil Sands Pipeline Ltd. – Crude Oil (3436 ha)

• Albian Sands Energy Inc. – Fresh Water – Potable Water, Surface Water (102 ha)



• AltaGas Ltd. – Natural Gas (793 ha)

• ATCO Gas And Pipelines Ltd. – Natural Gas (1378 ha)

• BP Canada Energy Company – Natural Gas (1797 ha)

• Canadian Natural Resources Limited – Crude Oil (5999 ha)

• Chevron Canada Limited – High Vapour Pressure (HVP) Products – Butane, Ethylene, Propane, Pentanes, Liquid Ethane (314 ha)

• Cold Lake Pipeline Ltd. – Crude Oil (3090 ha)

• Deer Creek Energy Limited – Fresh Water – Potable Water, Surface Water (348 ha)

• Devon AOG Corporation – Fuel Gas (395 ha)

• Devon Canada Corporation – Natural Gas (591 ha)

• Enbridge Pipelines (Athabasca) Inc. – Crude Oil (2327 ha)

• Encana Oil & Gas Co. Ltd. – Fuel Gas (3377 ha)

• Husky Oil Operations Limited – Crude Oil (3038 ha)

• Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited – Crude Oil (2686 ha)

• Northstar Energy Corporation – Fuel Gas (402 ha)

• Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. – Natural Gas (17,816 ha)

• Paramount Energy Operating Corp. – Natural Gas (2359 ha)

• Pelican Pipelines Ltd. – Natural Gas (1487 ha)

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation – HVP Products – Butane, Ethylene, Propane, Pentanes, Liquid Ethane (201 ha)

• Petro-Canada – Miscellaneous Gases – Air, Ammonia, Carbon Dioxide, Ethane, Helium, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Steam (32 ha)

• Simmons Group Inc. – Natural Gas (298 ha)

• Suncor Energy Inc. – Crude Oil (5281 ha)

• Syncrude Canada Ltd. – Crude Oil (4338 ha)

• Talisman Energy Inc. – Natural Gas (628 ha)

• Terasen Pipelines (Corridor) Inc. – Crude Oil (4338 ha)

• Transcanada Pipeline Ventures Ltd. – Natural Gas (681 ha)

• Petro-Canada – UTS – Natural Gas (96 ha)


Appendix 2A

2A.1.1.24.2 Roadways

The primary roadways in the oil sands development area, their general locations and their disturbance footprint in the oil sands region include:

• Highway 881, runs from Highway 63 south through the oil sands development area (721 ha)

• Highway 63/963, which runs through the oil sands development area south of Fort McMurray to the Lougheed Bridge near Fort McKay and then to its northern point at Bitumont (2470 ha)

• the winter road to Fort Chipewyan (area within the oil sands development area) (647 ha) to Suncor’s Firebag Development

• the Canterra Road runs northeast from Highway 63 turning south near Kearl Lake to Suncor’s Firebag development (194 ha)

• gravel road from Highway 63 to the Petro-Canada and Devon’s Dover SAGD developments (199 ha)

• gravel road from Highway 63 to the Canadian Natural Horizon Project site (143 ha)

2A.1.1.24.3 Power Lines

The primary power lines and their disturbance footprint in the oil sands region include:

• ATCO Dover – constructed a 240 kv transmission line between the Dover and McMillan power substations (1314 ha).

• ATCO Dover – is constructing a 240 kv transmission line between the McMillian and Charron substations. Once these facilities are completed, the plan is to connect these to the AltaLink Management Ltd. Electric system (595 ha).

• Dover-Muskeg River – constructed a 260 kv transmission line to provide further transmission to the mining areas of northern Alberta and the population centers of the central and southern areas of the province. The Transmission Line is about 53 kilometres long (275 ha).

• Firebag Transmission Line – is constructing a two-kilometer double-circuit 260-KV transmission line that crosses the Athabasca River from Suncor’s Millennium substation to the new substation east of the Athabasca River (246 ha).

Linear disturbances less than 10 metres in width (e.g., seismic lines) were not included in the EIA assessment. ♦



2A.1.2 BIBLIOGRAPHY

2A.1.2.1 Literature Cited

AEP. (Alberta Environmental Protection) 1998. Forest Management Units. 1:1,000,000. Dated June 1, 1998. Edmonton, AB. 1 Map.

Al-Pac. (Alberta-Pacific Forestry Industries Inc.). 2004. General Development Plan for the 2004 Operating Year. Map of Al-Pac Forest Management Agreement Area. 11 June 2004. 1 Map.


Golder Associates Ltd. 1000, 940 6th Avenue S.W. Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 3T1 Telephone (403) 299-5600 Fax (403) 299-5606

REPORT ON

CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS IN THE OIL SANDS REGION

Prepared for: Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Ltd.

Prepared by:

Golder Associates Ltd.

July 2005 03-1323-043

OFFICES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, SOUTH AMERICA, EUROPE, ASIA, AUSTRALIA

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE

1.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Guidance for Incorporating Climate Change............................................................... 2 1.1.2 Approach to Assessing Climate Change .................................................................... 2

1.2 HISTORIC CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................4 1.3 FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................6

1.3.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2 Climate Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Baseline ............................................. 9 1.3.3 Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life ............................................................. 18 1.3.4 Climate Change Forecasts Used in the Environmental Assessment ....................... 27

1.4 BIBLIOGRAPHY...................................................................................................34 1.4.1 Literature Cited.......................................................................................................... 34

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Observed Climate Normals for Fort McMurray ...............................................................................5 Table 2: Observed Climate Change for Fort McMurray................................................................................6 Table 3: Global Climate Models (GCMs) Included in the Assessment.........................................................7 Table 4: Summary of Available Climate Forecasts.......................................................................................9 Table 5: CCSR/NIES Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990 ............................................................10 Table 6: CGCM2 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990...................................................................11 Table 7: CSIRO Mk2b Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990 ..........................................................11 Table 8: ECHAME4/OPYC3 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990 .................................................12 Table 9: GFDL R30 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990...............................................................12 Table 10: HadCM3 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990................................................................12 Table 11: Comparison of Climate Change Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990.........................................17 Table 12: Summary of Ranked Climate Scenarios.....................................................................................18 Table 13: CCSR/NIES Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life.......................................................20 Table 14: CGCM2 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life..............................................................20 Table 15: CSIRO Mk2b Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life .....................................................21 Table 16: ECHAM4/OPYC3 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life ..............................................21 Table 17: GFDL R30 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life .........................................................21 Table 18: HadCM3 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life ............................................................22 Table 19: Comparison of Climate Change Values Over the Kearl Project Life ..........................................26 Table 20: Ranked Forecast Scenarios for Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life............................27 Table 21: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Annual Temperature................................................28 Table 22: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Summer Temperature .............................................28 Table 23: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Winter Temperature ................................................29 Table 24: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Annual Precipitation ................................................29 Table 25: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Summer Precipitation ..............................................30 Table 26: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Winter Precipitation .................................................30 Table 27: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Lower Annual Precipitation ................................................30 Table 28: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Lower Summer Precipitation ..............................................31 Table 29: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Lower Winter Precipitation .................................................31 Table 30: Results of Climate Change Scenario Analysis for Mouth of Muskeg River ................................33

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios...................................8 Figure 2: Determining Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period ..........................................................10 Figure 3: Forecast Annual Climate Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period......................................14 Figure 4: Forecast Summer Climate Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period....................................15 Figure 5: Forecast Winter Climate Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period.......................................16 Figure 6: Determining Change Over the Kearl Project Life ........................................................................19 Figure 7: Forecast Annual Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life ....................................................23 Figure 8: Forecast Summer Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life..................................................24 Figure 9: Forecast Winter Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life .....................................................25

LIST OF ATTACHMENTS

Attachment A: Historic Climate Trends in Fort McMurray Attachment B: Temperature, Precipitation and Streamflow Trend Analysis

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1.1 Introduction

Evaluations of climate change is required as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for new developments in Alberta. Guidance on the evaluation is provided in the Kearl Oil Sands Project – Mine Development (the Kearl project) Terms of Reference (TOR) (AENV 2004) and in federal guidance (FPTCCCEA 2003). This appendix summarizes the findings with regards to potential climate change and demonstrates that potential climate change issues have been addressed.

This appendix is organized as follows:

• an overview of short-term historic climate change in the Fort McMurray area (see Section 1.2)

• a brief description of the climate forecast models and forecast scenarios used in this assessment (see Sections 1.3.3.1 and 1.3.3.2)

• a description of climate change (temperature and precipitation) in the Fort McMurray area relative to a baseline of 1961 to 1990, including a summary of ranked climate scenarios (see Section 1.3.4)

• an evaluation of the potential climate change (temperature and precipitation) in the Fort McMurray area over the life of the Kearl project (see Section 1.3.5)

• a description of the climate forecasts used for the Air, Land and Environmental Health components (see Section 1.3.6.1)

• a description of the climate forecasts used for the Aquatic Resources components (see Section 1.3.6.2)

• a detailed summary of short-term historic climate trends in Fort McMurray (see Attachment A)

• a detailed analysis of short-term temperature, precipitation and streamflow trends in the Fort McMurray area (see Attachment B)

The air quality, aquatic resources, terrestrial resources and human health assessments included a consideration of whether potential climate change will have an effect on their predictions. A Climate Change Considerations subsection is presented in most of the above components assessments sections, and potential climate change effects are also addressed in most of the Prediction Confidence subsection of each component.

Also included in the Kearl project EIA is a Climate Baseline (see Volume 3, Section 2). The purpose of this baseline is to provide climatic context for the EIA. Baseline information on climatic conditions, including air temperature,

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precipitation, evaporation and evapotranspiration, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed and direction are provided.

1.1.1 GUIDANCE FOR INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE

The Kearl project TOR includes sections dealing with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and potential climate change (see Volume 1, Appendix A).

The Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Assessment issued a general guidance document in November 2003 for practitioners to use when incorporating climate change issues into environmental assessments (FPTCCCEA 2003). The guidance document sets out the following two approaches for incorporating climate change considerations:

• greenhouse gas considerations where the proposed project may contribute to GHG emissions

• impact considerations where changing climates may have an impact on the proposed project

The federal guidance document indicates that developments are typically more closely aligned with one type of consideration or the other, but provides for cases where both considerations could be addressed. A review of oil sands developments suggests that they would be more aligned with the first approach, which is consistent with past oil sands EIAs that have incorporated and documented the climate change issue through considerations of the GHG emissions associated with the project. While climate change impact considerations have been addressed through previous EIAs in the region, these have not always been explicity identified or documented.

1.1.2 APPROACH TO ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change considerations for the Kearl project included evaluations of the contribution of the project to GHG emissions and an evaluation of the effects of potential climate change on the Kearl project and EIA predictions. Potential climate change was evaluated with consideration of the guidance on how such evaluations should be made, as provided both by the EIA Terms of Reference as well as in federal guidance (FPTCCCEA 2003).

The consideration of climate change for the Kearl project included both GHG and impact considerations. For the GHG considerations, an industry and project-specific evaluation is presented, see Volume 2, Section 4 and Volume 5, Section 2. The GHG emissions are detailed in the EIA, with management plans discussed in the Application (see Volume 2). Evaluations of how potential climate change could affect the EIA predictions are presented as part of the prediction confidence sections of the EIA.

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This appendix details short-term recent climate trends and extrapolates these to the future. Establishing historic climate trends relied on climate records available for the community of Fort McMurray (1916 to 2000). Climate forecasts were then applied for the Fort McMurray area.

Climate forecast data was obtained from the Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project web site (Canadian Institute for Climate Studies [CICS]). The forecast data was analyzed using a ranking method developed through multi-stakeholder consultation (Burn 2003). Climate scenarios were ranked based on forecasts over the Kearl project life. The results were then used to evaluate the effects of climate change on the air quality, aquatic resources, terrestrial resources and human health components.

Two scenarios were considered for the aquatic resources component of the EIA based on the results of the climate forecasts predictions. The scenarios represent increases in air temperature and changes (upper and lower bounds) in precipitation, as suggested by the climate change models over the life of the Kearl project and taking into consideration the results of an analysis of regional climate data. The input files of the Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) model for surface quantity were modified to incorporate these changes in climate parameters. The two scenarios used to assess potential climate change effects at closure were:

• Scenario 1: Mean annual air temperature increased by 3°C (degrees Celcius), potential evapotranspiration increased by three percent, and precipitation increased by five percent.

• Scenario 2: Mean annual temperature increased by 3°C, potential evapotranspiration increased by three percent, and precipitation decreased by three percent.

The 3°C increase in mean annual air temperature assumed in both scenarios is consistent with trends in measured data. Since potential evapotranspiration is mostly affected by air temperature, an increase in potential evapotranspiration is considered along with increased temperature. There is a considerable degree of uncertainty in the potential changes (magnitude and direction) in annual precipitation. A five percent increase was chosen for Scenario 1 to reflect an average increase predicted by some climate models. A three percent decrease was selected for Scenario 2 to reflect an average decrease predicted by other climate models.

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1.2 Historic Climate Change

Climate normals for Fort McMurray during the 20th century are summarized for the World Meteorological Organization recommended 30-year period (e.g., 1961 to 1990; 1971 to 2000), see Table 1.

The wealth of climate data coming from different sources has forced climate scientists to select a reference year against which changes in climate can be measured. In North America, the standard reference is the climate normals for the period from 1961 to 1990. The observed changes in climate relative to the 1961 to 1990 climate normals were determined, see Table 2.

Possible trends for the most recent years, along with trends since 1916 are explored (see Attachment A). A detailed review of historic trends in streamflows associated with changes in temperature and precipitation is also provided (see Attachment B).

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Table 1: Observed Climate Normals for Fort McMurray

Observed Normals

Climate Data Season Temperature

[°C] Precipitation

[mm] Annual -0.8 415.9 Spring 0.4 75.3 Summer 14.7 189.7 Fall 13.2 92.4

Fort McMurray (1921 to 1950)

Winter -19.2 58.6 Annual -0.5 428.3 Spring 0.5 73.9 Summer 14.7 194.7 Fall 13.3 98.7






Winter -18.0 67.3 Annual 0.3 464.3 Spring 1.6 80.6 Summer 15.5 214.8 Fall 13.6 109.4


Winter -17.3 60.6 Annual 0.8 454.9 Spring 2.4 74.6 Summer 15.6 228.7 Fall 13.8 98.1


Winter -16.4 53.8

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Table 2: Observed Climate Change for Fort McMurray

Observed Climate Change(a)


[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual -1.1 -11.6 Spring -1.2 -7.1 Summer -0.7 -13.2 Fall -0.5 -18.3

1921 to 1950 Normals (40 years)

Winter -1.9 -3.4 Annual -0.8 -8.4 Spring -1.2 -9.1 Summer -0.7 -10.3 Fall -0.3 -10.8


Winter -1.3 -1.6 Annual -0.6 -8.0 Spring -1.3 -13.6 Summer -0.5 -9.1 Fall -0.3 -8.8


Winter -0.9 +1.4 Annual -0.4 +1.8 Spring -0.8 -3.7 Summer -0.4 +0.7 Fall -0.3 +2.4


Winter -0.7 +9.9 Annual +0.5 -2.1 Spring +0.8 -8.0 Summer +0.1 +6.1 Fall +0.2 -11.5


Winter +0.9 -12.6 NOTE: (a) Observed climate change was determined as the change relative to the 1961 to 1990 normals.

1.3 Future Climate Change

1.3.1 INTRODUCTION

This section reviews the climate forecast models, future climate change forecasts, forecasts for the life of the project and forecasts used for aquatic resources.

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1.3.1.1 Climate Forecast Models

Forecasts of future climate require the use of mathematical computer programs called global climate models (GCMs). These models simulate the interactions of emissions, the atmosphere, land surfaces and oceans and can take several months to run. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses several GCMs. Seven models are presented in Table 3. Canadian forecast data from these models is provided by CICS as part of the Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios Project.

Table 3: Global Climate Models (GCMs) Included in the Assessment

Model Name Abbreviation Country

Model Resolution(a)

[km²] Centre for Climate System Research / National Institute for Environmental Studies

CCSR/NIES Japan 168,000

Canadian Global Coupled Model (Version 2) CGCM2 Canada 74,000

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Mark 2 CSIRO MK2 Australia 95,000

— ECHAM4/OPYC3 Germany 41,000

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GFDL R30 United States 44,000 Hadley Centre Coupled Model HadCM3 United Kingdom 50,000

National Centre for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model(b) NCAR-PCM United States 41,000

NOTES: (a) The model resolution represents the size of the grid cells used in the respective models. (b) Canadian climate forecasts from the NCAR-PCM model were not available from the CICS web site. — No data.

1.3.1.2 Forecast Scenarios

Given the wide range of the inputs possible to GCMs, the IPCC have established a series of socio-economic scenarios that help define the future levels of global GHG emissions. The Third Assessment Report (IPCC 2001) identifies four general scenarios, namely A1, B1, A2 and B2. The A1 and A2 scenarios represent a focus on economic growth while the B1 and B2 scenarios represent a shift towards more environmentally conscious solutions to growth. Both scenarios A1 and B1 include a shift towards global solutions while the A2 and B2 scenarios include growth based on regional models. An illustration relating the four emission scenarios is provided (see Figure 1).

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These four socio-economic scenarios have been described more fully by the IPCC (2000). Although the IPCC has not stated which of these scenarios are most likely to occur, the A2 scenario most closely reflects the current global socio-economic situation, and is closely related to the IS92a scenario that was used by IPCC in its earlier climate assessments. In relation to the A2 scenario, scenarios A1, B1 and B2 result in lower long-term GHG emissions over the next century. Of the A1 scenario family, scenario A1FI yields high emissions in the first half of the 21st century due to increasing population and high dependence on fossil fuels for energy. Details for each of these scenarios can be found in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC 2000).

A1 A2

B1 B2

MoreRegional

MoreGlobal

MoreEconomic

MoreEnvironmental

B: balanced FI: fossil intensive T: non-fossil

Figure 1: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios

While the IPCC supports all of these scenarios, forecast data from each of them are not available for all of the seven GCMs listed (see Table 3). A summary of the forecast data available from the CICS web site is provided (see Table 4). All the available models and emissions scenarios were considered in this assessment for the evaluation of the potential effects of climate change on oil sands developments.

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Table 4: Summary of Available Climate Forecasts

SRES Scenario(a)

Climate Model Forecast Period A1FI A1T A1 A2 B1 B2 CCSR/NIES 2010 to 2069 — A1T A1(1) A2(1) B1(1) B2(1)

CGCM2 2010 to 2069 — — —

A2(1) A2(2) A2(3) A2(x)

— B2(1)

CSIRO MK2 2010 to 2069 — — A1(1) A2(1) B1(1) B2(1) ECHAM4/OPYC3 2010 to 2069 — — — A2(1) — B2(1) GFDL R30 2010 to 2069 — — — A2(1) — B2(1)

HadCM3 2010 to 2069 A1FI — —

A2(1) A2(2) A2(3) A2(x)

B1(1) B2(1) B2(2)

NCAR-PCM(b) 2010 to 2069 — — — — — — NOTES: SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. — No data. (a) The numbers in parenthesis beside the SRES scenarios represent the model ensemble number. (b) Canadian climate forecasts from the NCAR-PCM model were not available from the CICS web site.

1.3.1.3 Future Climate Change Forecasts

Climate forecast data from various models and emissions scenarios were analyzed to determine potential climate change for the oil sands region. Since the models are susceptible to interdecadal variability, the analysis uses the average of 30 years of data, centred on the decade of interest. The future conditions have been represented by the 30-year period between 2040 and 2069, which would be representative of the mid-2050s. This is near the end of the life of the Kearl project and incorporates the post operations management and closure period of the project.

Two separate forecasts of climate change have been presented. The first forecast provides the change between the mid-2050s (i.e., the 30-year period from 2040 to 2069) and the period from 1961 to 1990. The 1961 to 1990 period corresponds with the baseline typically used for climate models and recent analyses of climate change in Canada. The second forecast represents the climate change expected over the life of the Kearl project. This acknowledges that some of the changes in climate since the 1961 to 1990 period will have already occurred. Nominally this change is calculated as the change relative to a 30-year average centred on the current conditions.

1.3.2 CLIMATE CHANGE RELATIVE TO THE 1961 TO 1990 BASELINE

The forecast change in climate relative to the 1961 to 1990 baseline represents the total change forecast between the modelled 30-year average for 1961 to 1990 and the modelled future conditions, as represented by the 30-year period between

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2040 and 2069. This 30-year average would be representative of the mid-2050s, or near the end of the Kearl project life (see Figure 2).

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Figure 2: Determining Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period

The forecast changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2040 to the 2069 period relative to the 1961 to 1990 baseline (see Tables 5 through 10) were determined for each of the models and scenarios available for the Fort McMurray area on the CICS web site. Summer values represent data from June, July and August, and winter values represent data from December, January and February.

Table 5: CCSR/NIES Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990 Change from 1961 to 1990 Baseline

Model SRES Scenario Season Temperature

[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +5.3 +13.8 Summer +3.0 -11.2 CCSR/NIES A1T Winter +6.6 +21.0 Annual +6.3 —(a)

Summer +3.6 —(a)CCSR/NIES A1(1) Winter +8.1 —(a)

Annual +4.8 +12.0 Summer +2.3 -17.6 CCSR/NIES A2(1) Winter +6.2 +21.6 Annual +4.0 +9.6 Summer +2.4 -19.0 CCSR/NIES B1(1) Winter +4.9 +19.4 Annual +5.0 +14.4 Summer +3.0 -9.2 CCSR/NIES B2(1) Winter +6.1 +27.2

NOTE: (a) Precipitation data are not available for the A1(1) scenario.

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Table 6: CGCM2 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990

Change from 1961 to 1990 Baseline


[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +2.8 +4.9

Summer +2.4 +11.2 CGCM2 A2(1)

Winter +4.2 -4.6

Annual +2.6 +3.9

Summer +2.2 +2.2 CGCM2 A2(2)

Winter +4.3 -9.7

Annual +2.6 +5.7

Summer +2.4 +7.6 CGCM2 A2(3)

Winter +3.6 +2.9

Annual +2.7 +4.3

Summer +2.3 +6.7 CGCM2 A2(x)

Winter +4.0 -4.1

Annual +2.0 +3.4

Summer +1.9 +2.8 CGCM2 B2(1)

Winter +2.8 +1.7

Table 7: CSIRO Mk2b Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +3.7 +14.1

Summer +1.8 +6.2 CSIRO Mk2b A1(1)

Winter +4.2 +24.3

Annual +3.3 +14.0


Winter +4.1 +24.0

Annual +3.2 +10.8

Summer +1.7 +6.7 CSIRO Mk2b B1(1)

Winter +3.6 +22.7

Annual +3.4 +11.9


Winter +3.8 +22.2

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Table 8: ECHAME4/OPYC3 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +3.4 -5.4

Summer +2.8 -21.1 ECHAM4/OPYC3 A2(1)

Winter +5.5 +7.9

Annual +3.6 -5.1

Summer +2.9 -8.7 ECHAM4/OPYC3 B2(1)

Winter +5.9 +5.0

Table 9: GFDL R30 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +3.0 +11.6

Summer +2.7 +8.3 GFDL R30 A2(1)

Winter +3.3 +12.3

Annual +2.6 +6.7

Summer +2.9 -10.1 GFDL R30 B2(1)

Winter +3.1 +12.9

Table 10: HadCM3 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +3.2 +18.4

Summer +3.4 +16.4 HadCM3 A1FI

Winter +3.6 +30.6

Annual +1.9 +13.5

Summer +2.9 +15.8 HadCM3 A2(1)

Winter +0.9 +21.8

Annual +2.7 +9.4


Winter +2.5 +16.3

Annual +2.0 +17.3


Winter +2.5 +28.7

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Table 10: HadCM3 Climate Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990 (cont’d)



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +2.2 +13.1

Summer +2.9 +7.6 HadCM3 A2(x)

Winter +2.0 +22.4

Annual +2.0 +14.3

Summer +2.3 +9.4 HadCM3 B1(1)

Winter +1.8 +23.0

Annual +1.6 +16.1


Winter +0.8 +29.7

Annual +2.3 +16.1


Winter +2.8 +29.7

For the annual climate change forecasts relative to the 1961 to 1990 baseline period, see Figure 3. For the summer and winter changes, see Figures 4 and 5.

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Figure 3: Forecast Annual Climate Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period

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Figure 4: Forecast Summer Climate Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period

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Figure 5: Forecast Winter Climate Change Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Period

The range of changes in temperature and precipitation forecasts relative to the 1961 to 1990 baseline for each of the 26 model and climate forecast scenario combinations available on the CICS website are summarized (see Table 11).

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Table 11: Comparison of Climate Change Forecasts Relative to 1961 to 1990


Climate Model Period Temperature

[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +4.0 to +6.3 +9.6 to +14.4

Summer +2.3 to +3.6 -19.0 to -9.2 CCSR/NIES

Winter +4.9 to +8.1 +19.4 to +27.2

Annual +2.0 to +2.8 +3.4 to +5.7

Summer +1.9 to +2.4 +2.2 to +11.2 CGCM2

Winter +2.8 to +4.3 -9.7 to +2.9

Annual +3.2 to +3.7 +10.8 to +14.1

Summer +1.6 to +1.8 +0.9 to +6.7 CSIRO MK2

Winter +3.6 to +4.2 +22.2 to +24.3

Annual +3.4 to +3.6 -5.4 to -5.1

Summer +2.8 to +2.9 -21.1 to -8.7 ECHAM4/OPYC3

Winter +5.5 to +5.9 +5.0 to +7.9

Annual +2.6 to +3.0 +6.7 to +11.6

Summer +2.7 to +2.9 -10.1 to +8.3 GFDL R30

Winter +3.1 to +3.3 +12.3 to +12.9

Annual +1.6 to +3.2 +9.4 to +18.4

Summer +2.3 to +3.4 +1.6 to +16.4 HadCM3

Winter +0.8 to +3.6 +16.3 to +30.6

While all of the forecast information is valuable, it is not practical to evaluate the potential effects for every possible scenario. The challenge of selecting the appropriate scenarios to be evaluated was addressed by using the approach derived through multi-stakeholder consultation for evaluating climate change in environmental assessments in northern Canada (Burn 2003). Specifically, model forecasts have been ranked by annual average temperature, summer (i.e., June, July and August) average temperature, winter (i.e., December, January and February) average temperature, annual precipitation, summer precipitation and winter precipitation.

For each of the six ranking methods, the combinations of models and scenarios have been ranked and the temperature and precipitation changes for the 3rd highest (88th percentile), 12th highest (approximately the median) and 23rd highest (12th percentile) scenarios determined. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (INAC) recommended using the 86th percentile forecasts in environmental assessments in the Mackenzie Valley (Burn 2003), which are approximated by the 3rd highest ranked values (see Table 12).

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Table 12: Summary of Ranked Climate Scenarios


Ranking Method Rank

Model and SRES Scenario

Temperature [°C]

Precipitation [%]

3rd highest CCSR/NIES-B2(1) +5.0 +14.4 12th highest HadCM3-A1FI +3.2 +18.4 Annual

Temperature 23rd highest CGCM2-B2(1) +2.0 +3.4 3rd highest CCSR/NIES-A1T +3.0 -11.2 12th highest GFDL R30-A2(1) +2.7 +8.3 Summer

Temperature 23rd highest CSIRO Mk2-B2(1) +1.8 +0.9 3rd highest CCSR/NIES-A2(1) +6.2 +21.6 12th highest CGCM2-A2(x) +4.0 -4.1 Winter

Temperature 23rd highest HadCM3-A2(x) +2.0 +22.4 3rd highest HadCM3-B2(1) +1.6 +16.1 12th highest CCSR/NIES-A2(1) +4.8 +12.0 Annual

Precipitation 23rd highest CGCM2-B2(1) +2.0 +3.4 3rd highest CGCM2-A2(1) +2.4 +11.2 12th highest CSIRO Mk2-A1(1) +1.8 +6.2 Summer

Precipitation 23rd highest CCSR/NIES-A2(1) +2.3 -17.6 3rd highest HadCM3-B2(1) +0.8 +29.7 12th highest HadCM3-A2(1) +0.9 +21.8 Winter

Precipitation 23rd highest CGCM2-A2(x) +4.0 -4.1

1.3.3 CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE KEARL PROJECT LIFE

While the forecast climate change relative to the 1961 to 1990 baseline (see Section 1.3.4) is interesting in an academic sense or for comparison to historic observations, this data does not tell us how the climate might change over the life of the project. To determine how climate might change over the life of the project it is necessary to determine the difference between the climate near the end of the project life, represented by the 30-year average for 2040 to 2069, and the 30-year average centred on the current conditions. This acknowledges that some of the changes in climate since the 1961 to 1990 period will have already occurred. Nominally the current period is represented by the 30-year period from 1990 to 2019, which was scaled for each model and scenario combination using the 1961 to 1990 baseline and 2010 to 2039 forecasts (see Figure 6).

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Step 2 – determine the change from the 1990 to 2019 average

Figure 6: Determining Change Over the Kearl Project Life

Future changes in temperature and precipitation have been determined for each of the models and scenarios available on the CICS web site. The forecast change over the life of the Kearl project for the Fort McMurray area is summarized (see Tables 13 to 18). The change compares the 2040 to 2069 average with the 1990 to 2019 average.

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Table 13: CCSR/NIES Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life

Change Over Project Life


[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +4.5 +0.5

Summer +2.5 -5.3 CCSR/NIES A1T

Winter +6.5 +0.6

Annual +5.0 —(a)

Summer +3.0 —(a)CCSR/NIES A1(1)

Winter +6.9 —(a)

Annual +4.1 +0.4

Summer +1.8 -4.1 CCSR/NIES A2(1)

Winter +5.5 -0.4

Annual +3.1 +2.1

Summer +1.7 -1.7 CCSR/NIES B1(1)

Winter +4.2 +1.0

Annual +3.7 +2.2

Summer +2.1 -3.8 CCSR/NIES B2(1)

Winter +5.1 +2.0

NOTE: (a) Precipitation data are not available for the A1(1) scenario.

Table 14: CGCM2 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +2.2 +0.6

Summer +1.7 +2.9 CGCM2 A2(1)

Winter +3.7 +1.1

Annual +1.7 +2.9

Summer +1.5 +2.9 CGCM2 A2(2)

Winter +3.0 +0.2

Annual +1.7 +1.1

Summer +1.7 +3.9 CGCM2 A2(3)

Winter +2.1 -2.0

Annual +1.9 +1.4

Summer +1.6 +3.2 CGCM2 A2(x)

Winter +2.9 -0.3

Annual +1.3 -1.4

Summer +0.9 -2.4 CGCM2 B2(1)

Winter +1.8 -1.3

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Table 15: CSIRO Mk2b Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +2.6 +1.2

Summer +1.0 -3.2 CSIRO Mk2b A1(1)

Winter +3.0 +5.0

Annual +2.3 +2.4


Winter +2.7 +7.2

Annual +1.9 +1.3


Winter +2.1 +3.3

Annual +1.9 +0.9

Summer +1.1 -0.1 CSIRO Mk2b B2(1)

Winter +2.0 +3.1

Table 16: ECHAM4/OPYC3 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +2.1 -2.8

Summer +1.8 -6.7 ECHAM4/OPYC3 A2(1)

Winter +3.5 +0.5

Annual +2.4 -1.5

Summer +2.1 -2.8 ECHAM4/OPYC3 B2(1)

Winter +4.0 +1.5

Table 17: GFDL R30 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +2.1 +1.2

Summer +2.0 +1.8 GFDL R30 A2(1)

Winter +2.2 +2.4

Annual +1.8 +0.4

Summer +1.6 -4.9 GFDL R30 B2(1)

Winter +2.6 +1.3

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Table 18: HadCM3 Climate Forecasts Over the Kearl Project Life



[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +2.4 +3.5

Summer +2.7 +2.6 HadCM3 A1FI

Winter +2.7 +6.5

Annual +1.4 +3.5


Winter +0.8 +5.4

Annual +1.9 +3.4


Winter +1.3 +7.1

Annual +1.4 +2.6


Winter +1.8 +2.3

Annual +1.6 +3.0

Summer +2.1 +3.5 HadCM3 A2(x)

Winter +1.3 +4.9

Annual +1.2 +2.9


Winter +1.0 +5.9

Annual +1.0 +2.4


Winter +0.6 +6.8

Annual +1.7 +3.1


Winter +2.3 +4.0

The forecast changes in annual precipitation and temperature over the life of the Kearl project are shown (see Figure 7). The changes in the summer and winter temperature and precipitation are also shown (see Figures 8 and 9). The change compares the 2040 to 2069 average with the 1990 to 2019 average.

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Figure 7: Forecast Annual Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life

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Figure 8: Forecast Summer Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life

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Figure 9: Forecast Winter Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life

The forecast changes in temperature and precipitation over the life of the Kearl project are summarized (see Table 19).

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Table 19: Comparison of Climate Change Values Over the Kearl Project Life

Change Over Life of Project

Climate Model Period Temperature

[°C] Precipitation

[%] Annual +3.1 to +5.0 +0.4 to +2.2

Summer +1.7 to +3.0 -5.3 to -1.7 CCSR/NIES

Winter +4.2 to +6.9 -0.4 to +2.0

Annual +1.3 to +2.2 -1.4 to +2.9

Summer +0.9 to +1.7 -2.4 to +3.9 CGCM2

Winter +1.8 to +3.7 -2.0 to +1.1

Annual +1.9 to +2.6 +0.9 to +2.4

Summer +1.0 to +1.1 -3.2 to +1.2 CSIRO MK2

Winter +2.0 to +3.0 +3.1 to +7.2

Annual +2.1 to +2.4 -2.8 to -1.5

Summer +1.8 to +2.1 -6.7 to -2.8 ECHAM4/OPYC3

Winter +3.5 to +4.0 +0.5 to +1.5

Annual +1.8 to +2.1 +0.4 to +1.2

Summer +1.6 to +2.0 -4.9 to +1.8 GFDL R30

Winter +2.2 to +2.6 +1.3 to +2.4

Annual +1.0 to +2.4 +2.4 to +3.5

Summer +1.5 to +2.7 +1.4 to +5.5 HadCM3

Winter +0.6 to +2.7 +2.3 to +7.1

As discussed in the previous section, the approach used to select the climate forecasts was derived from the results of a multi-stakeholder process employed by Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (INAC) for choosing scenarios to evaluate climate change in northern Canada (Burn 2003). The model forecasts were ranked by annual, summer and winter average temperature, as well as the annual, summer and winter precipitation. For each of the six ranking methods, the combinations of models and scenarios have been ranked and the temperature and precipitation changes for the 3rd highest (88th percentile), 12th highest (approximately the median) and 23rd highest (12th percentile) scenarios determined. The ranked model scenarios are provided (see Table 20).

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Table 20: Ranked Forecast Scenarios for Climate Change Over the Kearl Project Life

Change Over Life of Project Ranking Method Rank

Model and SRES Scenario

Temperature [°C]

Precipitation [%]

3rd highest CCSR/NIES-A2(1) +4.1 +0.4 12th highest GFDL R30-A2(1) +2.1 +1.2 Annual

Temperature 23rd highest HadCM3-A2(1) +1.4 +3.5 3rd highest CCSR/NIES-A1T +2.5 -5.3 12th highest ECHAM4/OPYC3-A2(1) +1.8 -6.7 Summer

Temperature 23rd highest CSIRO Mk2-B2(1) +1.1 -0.1 3rd highest CCSR/NIES-A2(1) +5.5 -0.4 12th highest HadCM3-A1FI +2.7 +6.5 Winter

Temperature 23rd highest HadCM3-A2(x) +1.3 +4.9 3rd highest HadCM3-A2(2) +1.9 +3.4 12th highest CCSR/NIES-B1(1) +3.1 +2.1 Annual

Precipitation 23rd highest CGCM2-B2(1) +1.3 -1.4 3rd highest CGCM2-A2(3) +1.7 +3.9 12th highest GFDL R30-A2(1) +2.0 +1.8 Summer

Precipitation 23rd highest GFDL R30-B2(1) +1.6 -4.9 3rd highest HadCM3-B2(1) +0.6 +6.8 12th highest GFDL R30-A2(1) +2.2 +2.4 Winter

Precipitation 23rd highest CCSR/NIES-A2(1) +5.5 -0.4

1.3.4 CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTS USED IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

This section provides a description of the climate change scenarios used in the EIA, as well as the two scenarios used in the aquatic resources assessment.

1.3.4.1 Climate Forecasts Used for Air, Land and Environmental Health

The climate models and scenarios were ranked by annual, summer and winter average temperature, as well as the annual, summer and winter precipitation (see Sections 1.3.2 and 1.3.3). For each ranking method, the 3rd highest (88th percentile), 12th highest (approximately the median) and 23rd highest (12th percentile) scenarios were determined. For the purposes of the environmental assessment, the combinations of models and scenarios that yielded the 3rd highest changes in annual, summer and winter temperatures along with the 3rd and 23rd highest changes in annual, summer and winter precipitation over the Kearl project life will be carried forward into the assessment. These nine combinations of models and scenarios are consistent with the INAC recommendations for

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representing the upper bounds for changes in temperature and upper and lower bounds for changes in precipitation.

The climate change for the upper annual temperature scenario, corresponding with the CCSR/NIES–A2(1) model forecast are provided (see Table 21). This scenario and model combination yielded the 3rd highest forecast of annual temperature change. The 3rd highest forecast corresponds with the 88th percentile prediction and is consistent with the approach suggested by INAC for selecting climate forecast scenarios.

Table 21: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Annual Temperature

Change from 1961 to 1990 Baseline Change Over Project Life Model

Scenario Season Temperature

[°C] Precipitation [%] Temperature [°C] Precipitation [%] Annual +4.8 +12.0 +4.1 +0.4

Spring +6.6 +25.0 +5.7 +5.5

Summer +2.3 -17.6 +1.8 -4.1

Fall +4.3 +19.0 +3.6 +0.6

CCSR/NIES A2(1)

Winter +6.2 +21.6 +5.5 -0.4

The climate change for the upper summer temperature scenario, corresponding with the CCSR/NIES–A1T model forecast is provided (see Table 22). This scenario and model combination yielded the 3rd highest forecast of summer temperature change, which corresponds with the 88th percentile prediction.

Table 22: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Summer Temperature



[°C] Precipitation [%] Temperature

[°C] Precipitation [%] Annual +5.3 +13.8 +4.5 +0.5

Spring +6.8 +28.8 +4.9 +5.7

Summer +3.0 -11.2 +2.5 -5.3

Fall +4.8 +16.6 +4.1 +1.1

CCSR/NIES A1T

Winter +6.6 +21.0 +6.5 +0.6

The climate change for the upper winter temperature scenario, corresponding with the CCSR/NIES–A2(1) model forecast is provided (see Table 23). This scenario and model combination yields the 3rd highest forecast (i.e., 88th percentile prediction) of winter temperature change.

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Table 23: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Winter Temperature

Change from 1961 to 1990 Baseline Change Over Project Life

Model Scenario Season

Temperature [°C]

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Temperature [°C]

Precipitation [%]

Annual +4.8 +12.0 +4.1 +0.4

Spring +6.6 +25.0 +5.7 +5.5

Summer +2.3 -17.6 +1.8 -4.1

Fall +4.3 +19.0 +3.6 +0.6

CCSR/NIES A2(1)

Winter +6.2 +21.6 +5.5 -0.4

The climate change for the upper annual precipitation scenario that corresponds with the HadCM3–A2(2) model forecast is provided (see Table 24). This scenario and model combination yielded the 3rd highest forecast of annual precipitation change (i.e., 88th percentile prediction).

Table 24: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Annual Precipitation



Temperature [°C]

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Temperature [°C]

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Annual +2.7 +9.4 +1.9 +3.4

Spring +2.1 +6.4 +1.7 +0.8

Summer +3.0 +5.8 +2.2 +2.6

Fall +3.2 +9.0 +2.3 +3.2

HadCM3 A2(2)

Winter +2.5 +16.3 +1.3 +7.1

The climate change for the upper summer precipitation scenario that corresponds with the CGCM2–A2(3) model forecast is provided (see Table 25). This scenario and model combination yielded the 3rd highest (i.e., 88th percentile) forecast of summer precipitation change.

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Table 25: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Summer Precipitation



Temperature [°C]

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Temperature [°C]

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Annual +2.6 +5.7 +1.7 +1.1

Spring +2.6 +2.7 +1.7 -3.1

Summer +2.4 +7.6 +1.7 +3.9

Fall +1.6 +9.5 +1.2 +5.5

CGCM2 A2(3)

Winter +3.6 +2.9 +2.1 -2.0

The climate change for the upper winter precipitation scenario that corresponds with the HadCM3–B2(1) model forecast is provided (see Table 26). This scenario and model combination yielded the 3rd highest forecast of winter precipitation change (i.e., 88th percentile prediction).

Table 26: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Upper Winter Precipitation



Temperature [°C]

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Temperature [°C]

Precipitation [%]

Annual +1.6 +16.1 +1.0 +2.4

Spring +0.6 +6.3 +0.3 -0.9

Summer +2.5 +8.1 +1.5 +1.4

Fall +2.5 +20.4 +1.6 +2.3

HadCM3 B2(1)

Winter +0.8 +29.7 +0.6 +6.8

The climate change for the lower annual precipitation scenario that corresponds with the CGCM2-B2(1) model forecast is provided (see Table 27). This scenario and model combination yielded the 23rd highest (12th percentile) forecast of annual precipitation change.

Table 27: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Lower Annual Precipitation



[°C] Precipitation [%] Temperature [°C] Precipitation [%] Annual +2.0 +3.4 +1.3 -1.4

Spring +2.4 +0.1 +1.7 -0.1

Summer +1.9 +2.8 +0.9 -2.4

Fall +1.0 +9.1 +0.7 -2.0

CGCM2 B2(1)

Winter +2.8 +1.7 +1.8 -1.3

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The climate change for the lower summer precipitation scenarios that corresponds with the GFDL R30–B2(1) model forecast is provided (see Table 28). This scenario and model combination yielded the 23rd highest forecast (12th percentile) change for annual precipitation.

Table 28: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Lower Summer Precipitation



Temperature [°C]

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Temperature [°C]

Precipitation [%]

Annual +2.6 +6.7 +1.8 +0.4

Spring +2.5 +11.5 +1.7 +3.9

Summer +2.9 -10.1 +1.6 -4.9

Fall +1.9 +12.4 +1.3 +1.4

GFDL R30 B2(1)

Winter +3.1 +12.9 +2.6 +1.3

Finally, the climate change for the lower winter precipitation scenario that corresponds with the CCSR/NIES–A2(1) model forecast is provided (see Table 29). This scenario and model combination yielded the 23rd highest (i.e., 12th percentile) forecast of winter precipitation change.

Table 29: Future Climate Trend Forecasts — Lower Winter Precipitation



Temperature [°C]

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Temperature [°C]

Precipitation [%]

Annual +4.8 +12.0 +4.1 +0.4

Spring +6.6 +25.0 +5.7 +5.5

Summer +2.3 -17.6 +1.8 -4.1

Fall +4.3 +19.0 +3.6 +0.6

CCSR/NIES A2(1)

Winter +6.2 +21.6 +5.5 -0.4

1.3.4.2 Climate Forecasts Used for Aquatic Resources

1.3.4.2.1 Regional Trends in Precipitation and Air Temperature

An analysis of the available climatic and hydrologic data in the oil sands region and in Alberta indicates a general warming trend in the past three to four decades. The available precipitation data at Fort McMurray and Whitecourt (see Attachment B) show that there is an increasing trend in total annual precipitation. On a seasonal basis, there is a decreasing trend in winter and fall precipitation,

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and there is an increasing trend in spring and summer precipitation. However, the annual and seasonal trends are not statistically significant.

1.3.4.2.2 Athabasca River

The effect of potential climate change on Athabasca River flows is discussed in detail (see Attachment B). The flow data at Environment Canada Stations 07DA001 (Athabasca River below Fort McMurray), 07BE001 (Athabasca River at Athabasca) and 07AD002 (Athabasca River at Hinton) were analyzed. The analysis of the available flow data at Athabasca River below Fort McMurray for the period from 1957 to 2004 suggests a statistically significant negative trend at the five percent level for the mean annual, spring, fall and winter flows. The summer maximum daily flows, annual maximum daily flows and 7-day low flows (lowest 7-day consecutive flow that occurs, on average, once every 10 years) show negative trends that are not statistically significant at the five percent level.

For the Athabasca River at Athabasca, based on the available flow data for the period 1952 to 2003, there appears to be a negative trend for mean annual, spring and fall flows, and a positive trend for annual maximum daily flows, mean summer and winter flows, and 7-day low flows. Seasonal trends appear to be increasing mean monthly flows in winter and summer, and decreasing mean monthly flows in the fall. However, neither the positive or negative trends are statistically significant at the five percent level.

An extrapolation of the trends in the mean annual flows of the Athabasca River to 2065 would suggest a decrease of between 26 and 32 percent in the mean annual flow. An analysis of the flow data at other Alberta stations with a longer period of record than those available for the Athabasca River suggests that the trends observed for the Athabasca River may be exaggerated because of the relatively short period of flow records. The analysis of a much longer period of flow record (1909 to 2003) on the Bow River at Banff shows a smaller rate of decrease in mean annual flows. Wet and dry cycles present in the hydrologic series tend to exaggerate trends when only partial segments of the cycles (due to short periods of record) are analyzed.

Based on trends estimated using the longer period of flow record on the Bow River, the mean annual flow of the Athabasca River would decrease by about eight percent by 2065. The analysis using the longer period of record on the Bow River suggests that the 7-day low flow of the Athabasca River would increase by about 11 percent by 2065.

1.3.4.2.3 Muskeg River

The potential effects of climate change on flows in the Muskeg River were assessed by analyzing two scenarios that reflect the likely changes in the key meteorological inputs to the HSPF hydrologic model. The two scenarios used to

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assess potential climate change effects at closure are listed in Attachment B, Section B.1.4.

Comparisons were made between the Project Case far-future snapshot without consideration of the potential climate change effects and two climate change scenarios for this snapshot. In this analysis, no adjustments were made for potential seasonal differences in the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation. The results for the two scenarios are presented (see Table 30).

Table 30: Results of Climate Change Scenario Analysis for Mouth of Muskeg River

Project Case Far-Future (Test Case) Scenario 1(a) Scenario 2(b)

Flow Parameter Flow (m3/s)

Flow (m3/s)

% Change From Test

Case Flow (m3/s)

% Change From Test

Case Mean Annual Flow 3.95 4.15 5 3.34 -15

7Q10 0.08 0.089 11 0.061 -24

10-Year Flood 39.4 40.7 3 34.1 -13 NOTES: (a) Mean annual air temperature: +3°C; potential evapotranspiration: +3%; precipitation: +5%. (b) Mean annual air temperature: +3°C; potential evapotranspiration: +3%; precipitation: -3%.

1.3.4.2.4 Climate Change Scenario 1 (Increases in Precipitation and Air Temperature)

The 7Q10 low flow at the mouth of Muskeg River is expected to increase by 11 percent, which is probably due to potential increased melt during the early part of winter and a shorter winter period. The changes in the mean annual flow and the 10-year flood peak discharge are expected to increase by five and three percent, respectively.

1.3.4.2.5 Climate Change Scenario 2 (Decrease in Precipitation, Increase in Air Temperature)

The mean annual and 10-year flood peak flows for this climate change scenario are 15 to 13 percent lower than those for the test case. Such potential decreases would likely be due to a potential increase in air temperature and potential decrease in precipitation, which would result in less water available for runoff. The 7Q10 low flow would potentially decrease by 24 percent.

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1.4 Bibliography


AENV. (Alberta Environment) 2004. Final Terms of Reference: Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the Proposed Imperial Oil Resources Kearl Oil Sands Project. Issued by Alberta Environment, April 22, 2004.

Burn, C.R. 2003. Climate Change Scenarios for the Mackenzie Gas Kearl project. Internal paper, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada. 11 pp.

FPTCCCEA (Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Assessment). 2003. Incorporating Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Assessment: General Guidance for Practitioners. Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency. www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. N.Nakicenovic and R. Swart (ed.). Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom. 612 pp.

IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. R.T. Watson (ed.). Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom. 397 pp.

Golder Associates

http://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/

ATTACHMENT A

HISTORIC CLIMATE TRENDS IN FORT MCMURRAY

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A.1.1 HISTORIC CLIMATE TRENDS IN FORT MCMURRAY

The observed climatic trends for Fort McMurray were not consistent during the 20th century. A summary of the observed climate trends over the last 87 years shows a warming trend during the pre-war period (1916 to 1940), cooling during the middle part of the century (1941 to 1970) and more warming during the last 30 years (1971 to 2000) (see Table A-1).

Table A-1: Historic Climate Trends at Fort McMurray

Observed 30-Year Trend(a)


[°C] Precipitation(b)

[%] Annual +1.2 +3.1

Summer +0.6 +13.2 Fort McMurray (1916 to 2000)

Winter +2.1 -11.1

Annual +0.6 -29.5

Summer -0.1 +12.2 Fort McMurray (1916 to 1940)

Winter -2.8 -20.0

Annual -0.5 +45.3

Summer +0.4 +15.2 Fort McMurray (1941 to 1970)

Winter -0.6 +64.4

Annual +1.5 -27.5

Summer +0.7 -3.6 Fort McMurray (1971 to 2000)

Winter +5.4 -67.4 NOTES: (a) The observed trends were calculated as a linear regression fitted to the observed data.These

were then projected over a 30-year period (i.e., the annual change times 30 years) to provide a common reference between trends.

(b) Precipitation trends represent change relative to the observed 1971 to 2000 climate normals.

These historic climate trends are presented graphically, along with the respective 95th percentile confidence bands (see Figures A-1 to A-7).

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Figure A-1: Historic Climate Trends for Fort McMurray – 1916 to 2000 Data

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Figure A-3: Historic Climate Trends for Fort McMurray – 1916 to 2000 – Based on 1916 to 1940 Data


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ATTACHMENT B

TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION AND

STREAMFLOW TREND ANALYSIS

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B.1.1 INTRODUCTION

Considerations of potential effects of climate change is required under the Terms of References (TOR) for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of the Kearl Oil Sands Project (Kearl project).

Hydrologic issues associated with potential climate change that have been raised in the past include the potential effects on the Athabasca River flows, particularly the winter low flows, as well as effects on flows in the tributaries to the Athabasca River in the oil sands region. An analysis of apparent or significant trends in climatic parameters and streamflows is necessary to assist in defining scenarios of potential future climatic and hydrologic regimes for consideration in the EIAs.

The objective of the analyses presented herein is to generate information for a discussion of relevant hydrologic issues associated with climate change. The analysis involved the following tasks:

• A review of the literature on trends in climate parameters and streamflows, specifically as they pertain to effects on hydrology in Alberta and the oil sands region. The purpose of the literature review was to document the existing information on climate change or variability and its effects on hydrology at regional and local scales, particularly in the oil sands region. This review provided a basis for summarizing the main findings from the existing literature, identifying the gaps in the current understanding of the hydrologic processes that may be affected by climate change, and assessing potential implications to environmental assessments of proposed mining developments in the oil sands region.

• Statistical and trend analyses of recorded precipitation, temperature and streamflow data at regional and local scales, particularly in the oil sands region. The trend analyses were conducted to determine the presence or absence of statistically significant trends in pertinent climate and streamflow variables and to establish any linkages or correlations between trends in climate and trends in streamflow variables, if trends were detected from the recorded data. The analysis included an assessment of trends in the Athabasca River flow regime based on the recorded flow data currently available.

• A sensitivity analysis of potential changes from changes in air temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration associated with climate change, on the hydrology of tributary streams to the Athabasca River in the oil sands region. The analysis involved varying the recorded daily precipitation at Fort McMurray by a small percentage, increasing the recorded air temperatures at Fort McMurray by a small increment, and assessing the sensitivity of the simulated flows to these potential changes in the climatic variables using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model calibrated and implemented for the oil sands region.

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B.1.2 LITERATURE REVIEW

B.1.2.1 General

There is a general agreement in the existing literature on the evidence showing that global surface air temperatures have been increasing during the past decades. The increase in air temperature is postulated to be the result of either an increase in greenhouse gases emission (GHG) or climate variability (i.e., due to variations in sun or volcanic activity or El Niño and La Niña events) during past decades. Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations suggest that air temperature may continue to increase in the future.

The GCM simulations for the Kearl project predict warming of 1.5 to 4.5°C by the mid 2050s, with the most pronounced changes taking place in northern latitudes (Nicholls et al. 1996). However, predictions of changes in climate at a watershed scale or even a larger regional scale using GCMs are less reliable than global predictions (Arnell et al. 1996; Georgievskii et al. 1996; Zhang et al. 2000a). Therefore, the assessment of climate change effects on surface water quantity in the local watersheds used a combination of temperature predictions from GCMs and observed trends in the Fort McMurray area.

The predicted rise in the Earth’s surface air temperature could cause an increase in average global evaporation and an increase or decrease in precipitation (Bloomfield 1992; Mann et al. 1998; Vinnikov et al. 1990; Gan 1995; Zhang et al. 2000a). Detection of historic trends, changes and variability in climatic variables is essential for understanding or estimating potential future hydrologic changes associated with climate change.

B.1.2.2 Change and Variability in Air Temperature

Global Climate Models, such as the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) model, predict warming trends of 1.0 to 1.5°C from 2001 to 2050 over the Canadian Prairies under a 2×CO2 (doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration) level scenario, with the largest seasonal increase in temperature occurring in winter. The 2×CO2 scenario used previously by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been replaced by the new emissions scenarios (IPCC 2000). Increases in the near surface air temperature could change precipitation amounts and storm patterns. In turn, changes in air temperature and precipitation could affect the hydrology of Canadian rivers, including changes to the volume and timing of streamflow and river ice conditions.

Using proxy data, Mann et al. (1998) and McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) showed that the air temperature index (i.e., mean annual air temperature) in the late 20th century was higher than from 1500 to 1980 for the northern hemisphere. Many researchers have also shown that the 1980s and 1990s were the warmest years on record. These findings corroborate reports by many northern residents that winters

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are getting warmer in the Northwest Territories. However, the increase in surface air temperatures has not been continuous. In fact, the recorded data indicate a cooling period from the 1940s to 1970s in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere (Moran and Morgan 1997).

Using rehabilitated historical air temperature data from the Canadian Historical Temperature Database (CHTD), Chaikowsky (2000) investigated trends of mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures based on the data from 25 stations in Alberta including the Fort McMurray Airport climate station. In addition, trends based on historical data were compared to those estimated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCMI). Air temperature trends within Alberta were summarized for two periods, 1938-1995 and 1960-1995, for investigating the effect of time period on the magnitude of air temperature trends in the province.

The trend in annual mean air temperature for the Fort McMurray area was found to be an approximately 0.09°C increase per decade for the period of 1938-1995 and an 0.46°C increase per decade for the time period of 1960-1995 (Chaikowsky 2000). The rate of mean temperature increase over the shorter, more recent time period was about four times the rate of increase over the longer time period. Warming generally occurred during the period of January to June, with the greatest warming occurring in March. Typically, the months from July to December show a general cooling trend, with the greatest monthly cooling taking place in November. Although the trend in annual mean air temperature over the last 58 years was generally upward, some months actually exhibited decreasing trends. The monthly air temperature trends were similar at the Alberta stations included in the study.

The CGCMI outputs show a warming trend of about 0.3oC per decade for Alberta over the 1900-2001 period, with greater increases in the minimum air temperature than in the maximum air temperature (Chaikowsky 2000). The amount of warming estimated using the CGCMI outputs over the 1938-1995 and 1960-1995 periods were less than the warming observed in Alberta over these periods. The most rapid warming was estimated for the period following the year 2000. Over the 2000-2100 period, the CGCMI run, which included only greenhouse gas forcing, estimated a mean increase of 5oC. Chaikowsky (2000) concluded that the CGCMI results differed greatly from observations (i.e., about 0.5oC to 1.0oC) and hence were not likely useful in estimating temperature variations at the provincial scale (Alberta).

Van Wijngaarden and Vincent (2003) analyzed the historical average hourly winter air temperatures for the period 1954-2003 and found an increasing air temperature trend of about 4°C for 50 years (or 0.8°C per decade) for the oil sands region. Similar trends were reported for spring air temperatures. Summer and fall air temperatures showed relatively smaller rates of increase.

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Using combined land-surface and sea-surface temperature data, Jones et al. (2001) determined that the annual surface air temperature trends for the period 1976-2000 for the oil sands region is about 0.2°C increase per decade (IPCC 2001). In addition, seasonal surface air temperatures for spring, summer, and winter indicated warming or increasing trends for the period 1976-2000, while a cooling trend or decreasing air temperature was observed for the fall season.

Shen (1999) performed a trend analysis of annual maximum and minimum air temperature using data at 38 long-term climate stations (1884 to 1996) in Alberta. The weighted average of individual station values was used to obtain an Alberta average of climate variables for each month. The Alberta averages were smoothed using an eleven-year running mean to identify the pattern of variation in time. Based on the running means, it was observed that maximum temperatures did not have an upward trend, whereas minimum temperatures had a clear upward trend of about 0.8oC since about 1920.

Gan (1998) applied Kendall’s trend analysis method to the maximum, minimum, and average air temperature data from 37 weather stations (14 in Alberta, 14 in Saskatchewan, eight in Manitoba, and one in Ontario). The results indicate that between 1949 and 1989 the Canadian prairies have experienced warming, especially in January, March, April and June. In March and June more than 60 percent of the stations exhibited statistically significant warming at the five percent level of significance. Zhang et al. (2000a) and Hengeveld (1991) observed similar trends for the prairies in winter and spring.

B.1.2.3 Change and Variability in Precipitation

Predictions of changes in precipitation using GCMs are less definite than predictions in air temperature (Schlesinger and Mitchell 1985; Hennessy et al. 1997; Gregory et al. 1997). Cohen (1991) found no consensus in the projected changes in the net water supply of the Saskatchewan River basin under global warming from five GCMs. GCMs are based on simple land phase hydrology processes and coarse grid resolutions. Their simulations of possible changes in hydrologic processes are not expected to be reliable, particularly at regional and local scales.

Results reported in IPCC (2001) suggest that winter, spring, summer and fall average precipitation amounts have increased by about 30 percent, 0 percent, 15 to 20 percent, and 20 percent, respectively, in the oil sands region over the time period of 1900-1999 (100 years) compared to 1961-1990 normal. The study concluded that an increase in mean annual precipitation had occurred over the last century, with an approximately 20 percent rise for the period 1900-1999. The segment of that time period with the largest rising precipitation trend appeared to be from 1946 to 1975 (IPCC 2001).

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Studies of trends in precipitation based on recorded historical long-term data show a range in the magnitude of change, and sometimes differing directions of change. Zhang et al. (2000a) analyzed precipitation totals and the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation using climate data from 1900-1998 across Canada. Their analysis shows that annual precipitation totals have changed by -10 percent to +35 percent, with the strongest increases occurring in the northern regions of the country. The ratio of snowfall to total precipitation has also increased as a result of an increased winter precipitation, which generally falls as snow. Negative trends were identified in some southern regions during spring. However, there was no evidence of changes in the frequency of heavy precipitation events across Canada (Zhang et al. 2000b).

An analysis of daily precipitation time series based on rehabilitation time series (1938 to 1996) from 69 locations across Canada by Mekis and Hogg (1999) indicated an increase of about 1.9 percent per decade for the oil sands region. Analysis of annual total snow and rain data indicates an increase of about 0.8 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, for the oil sands region. The seasonal precipitation (spring, summer and fall) increased by about 0.6 percent, 3.0 percent, and 3.5 percent, respectively, for the period from 1938 to 1996. Winter total precipitation decreased by about 2.7 percent. These values are comparable to those reported by IPCC (2001), assuming an even distribution of the changes for the period of 1900-1999 for each decade in this century. For example, the reported 20 percent increase in precipitation over a century is assumed to be equivalent to a 2 percent rise per decade. A notable exception is for the winter season which is different in the direction of trend.

Gan (1998) analyzed monthly precipitation data at 37 stations in the Canadian prairies from 1949-1989 and showed that, between November and February, 8 to 18 percent of the stations experienced decreases in precipitation. The remaining stations showed no trend at the five percent level of significance. Other studies indicate less confidence in precipitation trends in Canada for climate warming scenarios. There is no consensus on whether precipitation will increase or decrease or how climate change may affect severe weather events in the Canadian prairies (Gan 1995).

Van Wijngaarden and Vincent (2003) examined daily precipitation data for the time period 1953 to 2003 for 75 stations across Canada including the Fort McMurray Airport Station. The total precipitation for each season was computed along with the percentage change compared to the average seasonal amount received during 1961-1990. The results indicate that precipitation appears to increase slightly for the spring, summer and fall but decrease significantly in winter (more than 50 percent for the oil sands region).

Differing opinions also exist concerning the historical trends in extreme rainfall events. Frich et al. (2001) showed that the maximum annual five-day total

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precipitation data for the oil sands region show a positive trend of greater than 15 percent for the period of 1961 to 1990. Other researchers have also reported increases in heavy precipitation, and snowfall amounts north of 55°N (IPCC 2001; Zhang et al. 2000a,b). However, Hogg and Carr (1985) found that there is a slight but insignificant increase in extreme rainfall across Canada.

Snow cover is considered to be a useful indicator of climate change because of its sensitivity to air temperature (Karl et al. 1993). Myeni et al. (1997) reported an earlier disappearance of spring snow cover in response to the recent trend toward warmer spring air temperatures. Other researchers have reported similar findings over much of North America (Foster 1989; Stuart et al. 1991; Robinson et al. 1991; Brown and Goodison 1996). Linear regression analysis has been used to assess Canadian monthly snow depth and seasonal snow cover duration changes between 1946 and 1995 (Brown and Braaten 1998). The trends over this time period in the average inter-annual change in mean monthly snow depth were determined to be decreasing in nature in nearly all months for the oil sands region. This study approximated maximum snow depth changes in the Mackenzie Basin to be 1.0 to 1.5 cm/y (centimetres per year). Decreases in the average inter-annual change in spring snow cover duration over the period of 1946 to 1995 were observed for the Fort McMurray region.

B.1.2.4 Change and Variability in Relative Humidity

Relatively little work has been undertaken to quantify long-term changes in relative humidity in Canada and the oil sands region. Van Wijngaarden and Vincent (2003) assessed changes in relative humidity over the period 1953-2003 based on hourly data recorded at 75 airport stations located throughout Canada. Linear trends were computed and statistical t-tests were performed to determine whether the linear trends were significant at the five percent level. The results of analysis showed a decrease of about 10 to 12 percent over the time period of 1953 to 2003 for the winter and spring seasons, and a decrease of about 2 to 4 percent over the same period for the summer and fall seasons in the oil sands region.

B.1.2.5 Change and Variability in Streamflows

The Canadian prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) have experienced about 20 serious droughts in the nineteenth century and over 10 serious droughts in the twentieth century (Godwin 1986). While it is certain that droughts will continue to occur in the prairies, it is not certain if future droughts will be more severe, more frequent, or both.

Based on an analysis of 50 sets of natural streamflow data, Gan (1998) showed that negative trends are much more prevalent than positive trends. Most of the positive trends occur in March and might be attributed to an earlier onset of spring melt caused by climatic warming. Higher flows in March could result in lower flows later in May and June. It seems that the Canadian prairies have experienced

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a warmer and somewhat drier climate in the last four to five decades. However, it is not clear that the drier climate has increased the frequency and severity of prairie droughts.

Yue et al. (2001) performed a trend analysis on annual mean, maximum and minimum Streamflow data for 213 stations in the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN) using data from 1957-1997. The results of their analysis show a band of downward trends stretching from the Pacific to the Atlantic between about 50o and 58o latitudes, specifically for mean and maximum flows. However, a band of upward trend occurs in northerly latitudes above 58o latitude for mean, maximum and minimum flows. For the annual minimum flow, a complex pattern with clustering of direction was noted.

Zhang et al. (2001) also presented trends computed using RHBN data from 1947 to 1996. Systematic analysis of 30-, 40- and 50-year study periods provided a significant trend of decreasing annual mean streamflow at the 10 percent level of significance across southern Canada. The monthly mean streamflow has decreased for most calendar months (except March and April) with the strongest decrease in summer and autumn months. However, significant increasing trends have been observed for the months of March and April. This might be attributed to an earlier snowmelt due to warmer spring air temperatures. The minimum annual flow and various percentiles of daily flows (below 40th percentile and above 90th percentile) indicate significant decreasing trends (i.e., at the 10 percent level of significance) in southern Canada and increasing trends in northern British Columbia and Yukon Territory.

B.1.3 TREND ANALYSES OF AIR TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION AND STREAMFLOW

B.1.3.1 General

Trend analyses of recorded near surface air temperature, precipitation, and Streamflows in the oil sands region and in Alberta were conducted to determine:

• the presence of statistically significant trends in pertinent climate and streamflow variables, and

• any linkages or correlations between trends in climate and trends in streamflow variables, if such trends were detected from the previous analyses

The following sections present the methodology and results of the analyses.

B.1.3.2 Air Temperature

The analysis of trends in air temperature in Alberta generally and in the oil sands region specifically, as a result of climate change, climate variability, or both, was based on the air temperature data recorded at the Fort McMurray Airport (1919-2003) and Whitecourt Airport stations (1942-2003). Air temperature trends were

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computed for eight statistical parameters at each station, including monthly mean, seasonal average (spring, summer, fall, winter), annual mean, and annual maximum and minimum air temperatures. The results indicate an increasing trend in air temperature at both stations for all seasons (see Table B-1).

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Mann-Kendall Test Spearman Rank Order Correlation

Coefficient Test for Trend

No Data

Test Stat

Std. Dev.

MK- Stat

p- value

Sen- slope rs t t(α=0.05) t(α=0.01) Trend

Jan 60 329 156.79 2.098 0.0179 0.074 -0.2701 -2.1365 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Feb 60 490 156.79 3.125 0.0009 0.108 -0.3844 -3.1710 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Mar 60 372 156.79 2.373 0.0088 0.070 -0.2862 -2.2752 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Apr 60 302 156.79 1.926 0.0270 0.041 -0.2458 -1.9311 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS May 60 210 156.79 1.339 0.0902 0.021 -0.1904 -1.4774 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Jun 60 487 156.79 3.106 0.0009 0.034 -0.4145 -3.4683 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Jul 60 461 156.79 2.940 0.0016 0.022 -0.3726 -3.0582 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Aug 60 346 156.79 2.207 0.0137 0.029 -0.2750 -2.1785 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Sep 60 176 156.79 1.123 0.1308 0.014 -0.1597 -1.2321 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Oct 60 -182 156.79 -1.161 0.1229 -0.016 0.1485 1.1435 2.0017 2.6633 (+) NS Nov 60 28 156.79 0.179 0.4291 0.007 -0.0237 -0.1803 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Dec 60 182 156.79 1.161 0.1229 0.034 -0.1550 -1.1952 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Annual 60 656 156.79 4.184 0.00001 0.035 -0.5111 -4.5291 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Spring 60 480 156.79 3.061 0.0011 0.051 -0.4027 -3.3508 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Summer 60 600 156.79 3.827 0.0001 0.027 -0.5006 -4.4038 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Fall 60 12 156.79 0.077 0.4695 0.001 -0.0116 -0.0880 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Winter 60 430 156.79 2.743 0.0030 0.066 -0.3596 -2.9350 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Annual Maximum 60 546 156.58 3.487 0.0002 0.037 -0.4463 -3.7978 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S

Air

Tem

pera

ture

at F

ort M

cMur

ray

Airp

ort S

tatio

n (1

944

to 2

003)

Annual Minimum 60 353 156.69 2.253 0.012 0.052 -0.2849 -2.2638 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Jan 61 312 160.70 1.942 0.0261 0.091 -0.2562 -2.0360 -2.0010 -2.6618 (+) S Feb 61 476 160.70 2.962 0.0015 0.094 -0.3859 -3.2128 -2.0010 -2.6618 (+) S Mar 61 481 160.69 2.993 0.0014 0.081 -0.3613 -2.9767 -2.0010 -2.6618 (+) S Apr 60 400 156.79 2.551 0.0054 0.047 -0.3444 -2.7941 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S May 60 342 156.79 2.181 0.0146 0.024 -0.2583 -2.0362 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Jun 60 596 156.78 3.801 0.0001 0.035 -0.4899 -4.2800 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Jul 59 431 152.92 2.819 0.0024 0.022 -0.3676 -2.9845 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) S Aug 59 417 152.92 2.727 0.0032 0.034 -0.3727 -3.0324 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) S Sep 59 217 152.92 1.419 0.0779 0.018 -0.2316 -1.7976 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Oct 59 70 152.91 0.458 0.3236 0.006 -0.0571 -0.4320 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Nov 59 57 152.92 0.373 0.3547 0.014 -0.0532 -0.4021 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Dec 62 321 164.63 1.950 0.0256 0.060 -0.2372 -1.8912 -2.0003 -2.6603 (+) NS Annual 58 721 149.08 4.836 0.00000 0.045 -0.6177 -5.8780 -2.0032 -2.6665 (+) S Spring 60 598 156.79 3.814 0.0001 0.056 -0.4647 -3.9973 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) S Summer 59 745 152.92 4.872 0.0000 0.030 -0.6057 -5.7475 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) S Fall 59 175 152.92 1.144 0.1262 0.016 -0.1575 -1.2042 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Winter 61 502 160.70 3.124 0.0009 0.075 -0.4147 -3.5006 -2.0010 -2.6618 (+) S Annual Maximum 60 218 156.59 1.392 0.0819 0.014 -0.1848 -1.4318 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS

Air

Tem

pera

ture

at

Whi

tcou

rt A

irpor

t S

tatio

n (1

943

to 2

003)

Annual Minimum 61 391 160.65 2.434 0.007 0.079 -0.3077 -2.4843 -2.0010 -2.6618 (+) S

Table B-1: Statistical Test for Trend Analysis of Oil Sands Region Temperatures

NOTES: S Significant NS Not Significant

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B.1.3.2.1 Fort McMurray Airport Station

An analysis of mean annual, minimum and maximum daily air temperatures at the Fort McMurray Airport station indicates an increasing trend (i.e., significant at the five percent level) in mean annual, maximum and minimum daily air temperature since the 1970s (see Figures B-1 (a) to (c)). Average daily air temperatures in spring, summer and winter also have increasing trends that are significant at the five percent level (see Figures B-2 (a), (b) and (d)). However, the apparent increasing trend in average fall daily air temperature is not statistically significant at the five percent level (see Figure B-2 (c)).

Two-sample statistical t-tests of annual and seasonal mean air temperature corresponding to the periods 1944-1973 and 1974-2003 indicate the two samples have different mean spring, summer, winter and annual air temperatures (see Table B-2). For the fall season, the mean air temperatures for the two samples are statistically similar based on the t-test. The results of the t-test suggest that there has been a significant change (increase) in seasonal and annual mean air temperatures during the period 1974-2003 compared to the period 1944-1973. However, the variances in daily temperature for both periods are statistically similar based on the F-test.

B.1.3.2.2 Whitecourt Airport Station

The annual mean and minimum air temperatures based on the data recorded at the Whitecourt Airport Station show an increasing trend, similar to the Fort McMurray station data, that is significant at the five percent level (see Table B-1 and Figures B-3 (a) and (c)). However, the apparent increasing trend in maximum daily air temperature (see Figure B-3 (b)) is not statistically significant at the five percent level. The monthly and seasonal surface air temperatures have trends similar to those for the Fort McMurray Airport Station (see Table B-2 and Figures B-4 (a) to (d)).

Based on a trend line fitted to recorded data, the forecasted mean annual air temperature at the Fort McMurray Airport and Whitecourt Airport stations will increase by 3.5oC and 4.5oC, respectively, by the year 2065, compared to the 1961-1990 temperature normal (see Table B-3).

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Note: Data from Dec. 1 1942 to Jul. 26 1978 are at Whitecourt Station Data from Jul. 27, 1978 to Dec. 31, 2003 are at Whitecourt Airport Station

(b) Maximum Daily Temperature

1516171819202122232425

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)(a) Annual Mean Temperature

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Figure B-1: Annual Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures at Fort McMurray or Fort McMurray Airport Station

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Figure B-2: Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter Temperatures at Fort McMurray or Fort McMurray Airport Station

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(a) Spring (March, April and May)

-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Mea

n T

empe

ratu

re (o C

)

(b) Summer (June, July and August)

11.0

12.0

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ean

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(o C)

10.01943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

M

(c) Fall (September, October and November)

-4.0

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1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

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-20.0

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0.0

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)

-25.01943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

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Table B-2: Statistical T-test and F-test for Two Samples (1944 to 1973 Verses 1974 to 2003) of Temperature Measured at Fort McMurray Airport Station

Spring Summer Fall Winter Annual

1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003 Annual Mean (oC) 0.532 2.147 14.909 15.581 1.043 1.383 -18.458 -15.838 -0.435 0.890 Variance 3.428 4.652 0.755 0.777 3.025 2.787 9.920 8.519 1.025 1.301 Observations 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 0 0 0 0 df 57 58 58 58 57 t Stat -3.113 -2.973 -0.771 -3.342 -4.760 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.001 0.002 0.222 0.001 0.000 t Critical one-tail 1.672 1.672 1.672 1.672 1.672 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.003 0.004 0.444 0.001 0.000 t Critical two-tail 2.002 2.002 2.002 2.002 2.002

t-test

Remark Rejected Rejected Accepted Rejected Rejected df 29 29 29 29 29 F 0.737 0.971 1.085 1.164 0.788 P(F<=f) one-tail 0.208 0.468 0.414 0.342 0.262 F Critical one-tail 0.537 0.537 1.861 1.861 0.537

F-test

Remark Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted

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Note: Data from 1922 to 1943 are at Fort McMurray StationData from 1944 to 2003 are at Fort McMurray Airport Station

(b) Maximum Daily Temperature

202122232425262728

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Tem

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(°C

)(a) Annual MeanTemperature

-4

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1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

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(°C

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(c) Minimum Daily Temperature

-50

-45

-40

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-25

-20

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

Figure B-3: Annual Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures at Whitecourt or Whitecourt Airport Station

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(a) Spring (March, April and May)

-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

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mpe

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o C)

(b) Summe r (June , July and Augus t)

10.0

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1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

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o C)

(c) Fall (Se pte mbe r, Octobe r and Nove mbe r)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

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(d) W inter (D ecember , J anuary, and Febr uary)

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Mea

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reo C

)

Figure B-4: Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter Temperatures at Whitecourt or Whitecourt Airport Station

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Table B-3: Forecasted Mean Annual Temperature and Annual Total Precipitation to Year 2065 based on Observed Trend Lines

Mean Annual Temperature (oC) Annual Total Precipitation (mm)

Period Average

(1961-1990) Forecasted

to 2065 Difference Average


to 2065 Difference

(%) Fort McMurray Airport Station

1944-2003 0.27 3.82 3.55 464 466 0.4%

Whitecourt Airport Station

1945-2003 1.88 6.43 4.55 578 656 13.4%

B.1.3.3 Precipitation

An analysis of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation based on the data recorded at the Fort McMurray and Whitecourt Airport stations (see Table B-4, Figures B-5 (a) to (e) and B-6 (a) to (e)) does not suggest any significant trend over the last 50 to 60 years.

The analysis of the monthly precipitation data and seasonal total precipitation at the Fort McMurray station shows that there has been an apparent decrease in precipitation in winter (i.e., November to February) and the beginning of autumn (i.e., August and September). Monthly precipitation apparently has increased in the spring and the beginning of summer (i.e., from April to July). However, the increasing and decreasing trends in monthly precipitation are not statistically significant at the five percent level. Similar results were obtained using the data recorded at the Whitecourt Airport Station, with the exception that winter precipitation has a decreasing trend that is significant at the five percent level (see Table B-4).

For the results of the t-tests and F-tests on annual and seasonal totals and variances of precipitation values recorded at the Fort McMurray Airport Station for two samples corresponding to the periods 1944-1973 and 1974-2003, (see Table B5). The t-test indicates that the two samples have comparable total precipitation in spring, summer, fall and annually. For the winter season, the two samples have different total precipitation.

The recorded data at the two stations indicate an apparent, though not statistically significant, increase in annual total precipitation. The forecast of total precipitation to the year 2065, based on the apparent annual trend, suggests an increase of about 0.4 percent and 13 percent at the Fort McMurray Airport and Whitecourt Airport stations, respectively, relative to the 1961-1990 precipitation normal.

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Table B-4: Statistical Test for Trend Analysis of Oil Sands Region Precipitation

Mann-Kendall Test Spearman Rank Order Correlation Coefficient Test for

Trend

No. Data Test Stat Std.Dev.

MK- Stat

p- value

Sen-slope rs t t(α=0.05) t(α=0.01) Trend

Jan 60 -126 156.77 -0.804 0.2108 -0.053 0.1129 0.8654 2.0017 2.6633 (-) NS Feb 60 -66 156.77 -0.421 0.3369 -0.031 0.0406 0.3094 2.0017 2.6633 (-) NS Mar 60 45 156.77 0.287 0.3870 0.019 -0.0456 -0.3476 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Apr 60 6 156.79 0.038 0.4847 0.004 -0.0099 -0.0753 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS May 60 163 156.79 1.040 0.1493 0.159 -0.1354 -1.0405 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Jun 60 295 156.78 1.882 0.0299 0.423 -0.2528 -1.9899 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Jul 60 116 156.78 0.740 0.2297 0.172 -0.1091 -0.8356 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Aug 60 -65 156.79 -0.415 0.3392 -0.068 0.0611 0.4662 2.0017 2.6633 (-) NS Sep 60 -74 156.78 -0.472 0.3185 -0.065 0.0747 0.5708 2.0017 2.6633 (-) NS Oct 60 159 156.78 1.014 0.1553 0.107 -0.1601 -1.2348 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Nov 60 -156 156.77 -0.995 0.1598 -0.067 0.1165 0.8937 2.0017 2.6633 (-) NS Dec 60 -301 156.77 -1.920 0.0274 -0.143 0.2142 1.6704 2.0017 2.6633 (-) NS Annual 60 130 156.79 0.829 0.2035 0.630 -0.1013 -0.7751 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Spring 60 146 156.78 0.931 0.1759 0.180 -0.1443 -1.1105 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Summer 60 228 156.78 1.454 0.0729 0.543 -0.1929 -1.4971 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Fall 60 7 156.79 0.045 0.4822 0.013 -0.0017 -0.0129 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS

Precipitation at Fort McMurray Airport Station (1944 to 2003)

Winter 60 -268 156.78 -1.709 0.044 -0.249 0.2003 1.5571 2.0017 2.6633 (-) NS Jan 61 -136 160.69 -0.846 0.1987 -0.100 0.0916 0.7065 2.0010 2.6618 (-) NS Feb 61 -536 160.68 -3.336 0.0004 -0.294 0.4071 3.4231 2.0010 2.6618 (-) S Mar 61 -36 160.68 -0.224 0.4114 -0.031 0.0382 0.2935 2.0010 2.6618 (-) NS Apr 61 103 160.69 0.641 0.2608 0.068 -0.0879 -0.6775 -2.0010 -2.6618 (+) NS May 59 137 152.91 0.896 0.1851 0.173 -0.1195 -0.9087 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Jun 60 191 156.79 1.218 0.1116 0.468 -0.1794 -1.3885 -2.0017 -2.6633 (+) NS Aug 59 -122 152.91 -0.798 0.2125 -0.269 0.1008 0.7648 2.0025 2.6649 (-) NS Sep 59 183 152.90 1.197 0.1157 0.206 -0.1600 -1.2238 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Oct 59 122 152.90 0.798 0.2125 0.078 -0.1099 -0.8345 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Nov 59 67 152.90 0.438 0.3306 0.048 -0.0438 -0.3306 -2.0025 -2.6649 (-) NS Dec 62 -299 164.63 -1.816 0.0347 -0.171 0.2318 1.8456 2.0003 2.6603 (-) NS Annual 58 31 149.08 0.208 0.4176 0.134 -0.0313 -0.2342 -2.0032 -2.6665 (+) NS Spring 59 145 152.92 0.948 0.1715 0.214 -0.1178 -0.8958 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Summer 59 91 152.92 0.595 0.2759 0.396 -0.0780 -0.5909 -2.0025 -2.6649 (+) NS Fall 58 194 149.07 1.301 0.0966 0.350 -0.1642 -1.2455 -2.0032 -2.6665 (+) NS

Precipitation at Whitecourt Airport Station (1943 to 2003)

Winter 61 -404 160.68 -2.514 0.006 -0.533 0.3299 2.6845 2.0010 2.6618 (-) S NOTES: S = Significant N = Not significant

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(a) Annual Precipitation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

(b) Spring Precipitation (March, April and May)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Tot

al P

reci

pita

tion

(mm

)

Figure B-5: Precipitation at Fort McMurray or Fort McMurray Airport Station

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(c) Summer Precipitation (June, July and August)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Tota

l Pre

cipi

tatio

n (m

m)

(d) Fall Precipitation (September, October and November)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

Figure B-5: Precipitation at Fort McMurray or Fort McMurray Airport Station (cont’d)

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(e) Winter Precipitation (December, January and February)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

NOTES: Data from 1922 to 1943 are at Fort McMurray Station. Data from 1944 to 2003 are at Fort McMurray Airport Station. Annual total precipitation is not calculated for 1922 due to insufficient data.

Figure B-5: Precipitation at Fort McMurray or Fort McMurray Airport Station (cont’d)

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(a) Annual Precipitation

0100200

300400500600

700800

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)

(b) Spring Precipitation (March, April and May)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Tot

al P

reci

pita

tion

(mm

)

Figure B-6: Precipitation at Whitecourt or Whitecourt Airport Station

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(c) Summer Precipitation (June, July and August)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Tot

al P

reci

pita

tion

(mm

)

(d) Fall Precipitation (September, October and November)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003

Tota

l Pre

cipi

tatio

n (m

m)

Figure B-6: Precipitation at Whitecourt or Whitecourt Airport Station (cont’d)

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(e) Winter Precipitation (December, January and February)

40

60

80

100

120

140

1973 1983 1993 20030

20

1943 1953 1963

Tot

al P

reci

pita

tion

(mm

)

NOTES:

Annual total precipitation is not calculated for years 1942, 1944, 1978 and 1997 due to insufficient data. Data from Jul. 27, 1978 to Dec. 31, 2003 are at Whitecourt Airport Station. Data from Dec. 1 1942 to Jul. 26 1978 are at Whitecourt Station.

Figure B-6: Precipitation at Whitecourt or Whitecourt Airport Station (cont’d)

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Table B-5: Statistical T-test and F-test for Two Samples (1944 to 1973 Verses 1974 to 2003) of Precipitation Measured at Fort McMurray Airport Station

Spring Summer Fall Winter Annual 1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003 1944-1973 1974-2003

Total Precipitation (mm) 71.523 75.480 203.223 225.313 105.953 94.340 64.857 49.003 445.817 444.090

Variance (mm2) 1027.434 671.295 3253.091 3881.145 1557.932 1279.085 707.407 182.913 9549.196 6926.442

Observations 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Hypothesized Total Difference 0 0 0 0 0

df 56 58 57 43 57

t Stat -0.526 -1.432 1.194 2.910 0.074

P(T<=t) one-tail 0.301 0.079 0.119 0.003 0.471

t Critical one-tail 1.673 1.672 1.672 1.681 1.672

P(T<=t) two-tail 0.601 0.157 0.237 0.006 0.942

t Critical two-tail 2.003 2.002 2.002 2.017 2.002

t-test

Remark Accepted Accepted Accepted Rejected Accepted

df 29 29 29 29 29

F 1.531 0.838 1.218 3.867 1.379

P(F<=f) one-tail 0.129 0.319 0.299 0.000 0.196

F Critical one-tail 1.861 0.537 1.861 1.861 1.861

F-test

Remark Accepted Accepted Accepted Rejected Accepted

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B.1.3.4 Streamflows

The recorded flow data at Environment Canada Stations 07DA001 (Athabasca River below Fort McMurray), 07BE001 (Athabasca River at Athabasca), 07AD002 (Athabasca River at Hinton), 07CD001 (Clearwater River at Draper) and 05BB001 (Bow River at Banff) were analyzed using Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests for trend to identify possible trends in maximum, mean, minimum, monthly mean and seasonal mean flows. The location, drainage area and number of years of records at each station are given in Table B-6.

B.1.3.4.1 Athabasca River Below Fort McMurray (07DA001)

The results of the analysis suggest a statistically significant negative trend at the five percent level for annual mean flow, and the mean flow in the spring, fall and winter seasons for the Athabasca River below Fort McMurray. The results also indicate a negative trend in the summer and 7-day low flows. However, these trends are not statistically significant at the five percent level (see Table B-7 and Figures B-7 and B-8).

Based on the trend line fitted to the recorded data, (see Figures B-7 (a) and B-8 (a)), the forecasted annual mean flow would decrease by about 32 percent and the 7-day low flow would decrease by 19 percent by the year 2065 compared to the 1961-1990 statistics (see Table B-8).

B.1.3.4.2 Athabasca River at Athabasca (07BE001)

The recorded flows in Athabasca River at Athabasca (Station 07DE001) from 1952 to 2003 were analyzed for trend. The results indicate an apparent negative trend for annual mean, spring and fall flows and a positive trend for annual maximum flow, mean summer and winter flows and 7-day minimum flows (see Table B-7). The mean monthly flows in winter (January to May) and summer (July and August) indicate an apparent positive trend while the mean monthly flows in spring (June) and fall (September to November) indicate negative trend. However, none of either the positive or negative trends is statistically significant at the five percent level.

Based on the trend line fitted to the recorded data (see Figures B-7 (c) and B-8 (c)), the forecasted annual mean flow will decrease by about 26 percent and the 7-day low flow will increase by about 18 percent by the year 2065 compared to the 1961-1990 statistics (see Table B-8).

B.1.3.4.3 Athabasca River at Hinton (07AD002)

The Athabasca River at Hinton represents a high altitude watershed with glacial melt runoff. Recorded annual mean and maximum runoff and summer and fall flows at this station indicate decreasing trends that are not significant at the five percent level. Spring and winter flows show increasing trends that are not

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significant at the five percent level. However, the 7-day low flows indicate an increasing trend that is significant at the five percent level.

The forecasted annual mean flow at this station would decrease by about 36 percent by the year 2065 and the 7-day low flow would increase by about 66 percent by the year 2065 compared to 1961-1990 statistics (see Table B-8).

B.1.3.4.4 Clearwater River at Draper (07CD001)

The Clearwater River is a tributary to the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray. An analysis of the flow data recorded at this station indicates trends similar to those at the Athabasca River below Fort McMurray station (see Table B-7). An analysis of annual mean, maximum and spring flows indicates a decreasing trend that is significant at the five percent level. Summer, winter and 7-day low flows have decreasing trends that are not significant. Forecasts for 2065, based on the trend line fitted to recorded data, indicate that the annual mean flow would decrease by about 56 percent and the 7-day low flow would decrease by about 8 percent compared to the 1961-1990 statistics.

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Table B-6: Location, Drainage Areas and Flow Statistics of Streamflow Stations

Flow (m3/s)

No. Station Name Station Number Latitude Longitude

Drainage Area (km2) Period

No. of Complete Year’s of

Data

Mean Annual Flow

2-year Peak

10-year Peak

100-year Peak

7-day, 10-year

Low 1 Athabasca River below

Fort McMurray 07DA001 56°46'50¨N 111°24'0¨W 133000(G),

131000(E) 1957~2004 43 628.0 2354 3723 5575 102.5

2 Athabasca River at Athabasca

07BE001 54°43'20¨N 113°17'10¨W 74600(G), 73500(E)

1913~2003 69 420.0 1839 3200 5478 52.6

3 Athabasca River at Hinton

07AD002 53°25'23¨N 117°34'14¨W 9780(G), 9780(E)

1961~2003 42 172.3 796 1031 1259 18.6

5 Athabasca River near Windfall

07AE001 54°12'25¨N 116°3'45¨W 19600(G), 19600(E)

1960~2003 17 239.5 1111 1702 2567 28.6

4 Clearwater River at Draper

07CD001 56°41'7¨N 111°15'15¨W 30800(G), 30800(E)

1930~2004 46 118.2 365 603 882 33.6

6 Bow River at Banff 05BB001 51°10'30¨N 115°34'10¨W 2210(G), 2210(E)

1909~2003 93 39.4 205 286 373 5.5

7 Bow River at Calgary 05BH004 51°03'00¨N 114°03'00¨W 7860(G), 7820(E)

1911~2003 89 91.2 334 573 928 17.6

NOTE: G Gross area. E Effective area (contributing to runoff).

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Table B-7: Statistical Test for Trend Analysis of Streamflows


Trend No. Data Test Stat Std.Dev. MK-Stat p-value Senslope rs t t(α=0.05) t(α=0.01) Trend

Jan 46 -221 105.62 -2.092 0.0182 -1.389 0.3222 2.2579 2.0154 2.6923 (-) S Feb 46 -266 105.61 -2.519 0.0059 -1.055 0.3494 2.4739 2.0154 2.6923 (-) S Mar 47 -89 109.05 -0.816 0.2072 -0.411 0.1543 1.0473 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Apr 45 -96 102.23 -0.939 0.1738 -2.602 0.1443 0.9560 2.0167 2.6951 (-) NS May 47 -317 109.05 -2.907 0.0018 -11.140 0.4269 3.1670 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S Jun 47 -162 109.04 -1.486 0.0687 -6.577 0.2410 1.6661 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Jul 47 -75 109.05 -0.688 0.2458 -2.239 0.0897 0.6044 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Aug 47 -37 109.05 -0.339 0.3672 -1.172 0.0642 0.4314 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Sep 47 -233 109.05 -2.137 0.0163 -5.622 0.3037 2.1379 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S Oct 48 -252 112.51 -2.240 0.0126 -4.340 0.3587 2.6059 2.0129 2.6870 (-) S Nov 47 -267 109.05 -2.449 0.0072 -2.433 0.4151 3.0609 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S Dec 46 -199 105.62 -1.884 0.0298 -1.292 0.2851 1.9731 2.0154 2.6923 (-) NS Annual 43 -319 95.55 -3.338 0.0004 -5.545 0.4754 3.4599 2.0195 2.7012 (-) S Spring 47 -295 109.05 -2.705 0.0034 -5.373 0.3773 2.7331 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S Summer 47 -111 109.05 -1.018 0.1544 -2.804 0.1767 1.2042 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Fall 47 -265 109.05 -2.430 0.0075 -4.677 0.3433 2.4521 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S Winter 46 -245 105.62 -2.320 0.0102 -1.261 0.3274 2.2985 2.0154 2.6923 (-) S Annual Max 47 -137 109.02 -1.257 0.1044 -10.000 0.1728 1.1772 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS

Athabasca River below Fort McMurray (1958 to 2004)

7Q 46 -188 105.60 -1.780 0.0375 -0.730 0.2766 1.9095 2.0154 2.6923 (-) NS Jan 70 209 197.25 1.060 0.1447 0.111 -0.1412 -1.1763 -1.9955 -2.6501 (+) NS Feb 70 181 197.25 0.918 0.1794 0.081 -0.1150 -0.9550 -1.9955 -2.6501 (+) NS Mar 70 265 197.25 1.343 0.0896 0.170 -0.1400 -1.1656 -1.9955 -2.6501 (+) NS Apr 69 186 193.07 0.963 0.1677 0.564 -0.1355 -1.1192 -1.9960 -2.6512 (+) NS May 83 23 254.28 0.090 0.4640 0.071 -0.0218 -0.1965 -1.9897 -2.6379 (+) NS Jun 83 -263 254.28 -1.034 0.1505 -1.179 0.1187 1.0759 1.9897 2.6379 (-) NS Jul 84 288 258.86 1.113 0.1329 1.354 -0.1165 -1.0621 -1.9893 -2.6371 (+) NS Sep 84 -276 258.86 -1.066 0.1432 -0.581 0.1072 0.9762 1.9893 2.6371 (-) NS Oct 84 -184 258.86 -0.711 0.2386 -0.216 0.0906 0.8238 1.9893 2.6371 (-) NS Nov 70 -251 197.25 -1.272 0.1016 -0.290 0.1616 1.3501 1.9955 2.6501 (-) NS Dec 70 18 197.25 0.091 0.4636 0.009 -0.0069 -0.0571 -1.9955 -2.6501 (+) NS Annual 69 -190 193.07 -0.984 0.1625 -0.397 0.1009 0.8299 1.9960 2.6512 (-) NS Spring 69 -70 193.07 -0.363 0.3585 -0.128 0.0426 0.3487 1.9960 2.6512 (-) NS Summer 84 70 258.86 0.270 0.3934 0.281 -0.0320 -0.2902 -1.9893 -2.6371 (+) NS Fall 70 -329 197.25 -1.668 0.0477 -0.500 0.2084 1.7571 1.9955 2.6501 (-) NS Winter 69 120 193.07 0.622 0.2671 0.084 -0.0793 -0.6510 -1.9960 -2.6512 (+) NS Annual Max 84 117 258.83 0.452 0.3256 1.304 -0.0518 -0.4694 -1.9893 -2.6371 (+) NS

Athabasca River at Athabasca (1913 to 2003)

7Q 68 174 188.91 0.921 0.1785 0.103 -0.1154 -0.9435 -1.9966 -2.6524 (+) NS

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Table B-7: Statistical Test for Trend Analysis of Streamflows (cont’d)


Trend No. Data Test Stat Std.Dev. MK-Stat p-value Senslope rs t t(α=0.05) t(α=0.01) Trend

Jan 42 123 92.27 1.333 0.0913 0.130 -0.2194 -1.4219 -2.0211 -2.7045 (+) NS Feb 42 77 92.27 0.834 0.2020 0.048 -0.1508 -0.9648 -2.0211 -2.7045 (+) NS Mar 42 193 92.27 2.092 0.0182 0.171 -0.3184 -2.1241 -2.0211 -2.7045 (+) S Apr 43 63 95.55 0.659 0.2548 0.078 -0.1199 -0.7733 -2.0195 -2.7012 (+) NS May 43 7 95.55 0.073 0.4708 0.055 -0.0220 -0.1412 -2.0195 -2.7012 (+) NS Jun 43 -131 95.55 -1.371 0.0852 -1.750 0.2221 1.4588 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS Jul 43 -49 95.55 -0.513 0.3040 -0.537 0.0918 0.5904 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS Aug 43 -123 95.55 -1.287 0.0990 -0.809 0.2031 1.3282 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS Sep 43 -145 95.55 -1.517 0.0646 -0.872 0.2434 1.6071 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS Oct 43 -135 95.55 -1.413 0.0789 -0.390 0.2217 1.4557 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS Nov 43 -17 95.55 -0.178 0.4294 -0.030 0.0208 0.1335 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS Dec 43 49 95.55 0.513 0.3040 0.054 -0.1068 -0.6876 -2.0195 -2.7012 (+) NS Annual 42 -133 92.27 -1.441 0.0747 -0.418 0.2250 1.4606 2.0211 2.7045 (-) NS Spring 42 49 92.27 0.531 0.2977 0.143 -0.0798 -0.5064 -2.0211 -2.7045 (+) NS Summer 43 -147 95.55 -1.538 0.0620 -1.281 0.2378 1.5679 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS Fall 43 -183 95.55 -1.915 0.0277 -0.490 0.2945 1.9730 2.0195 2.7012 (-) S Winter 42 77 92.27 0.834 0.2020 0.089 -0.1187 -0.7561 -2.0211 -2.7045 (+) NS Annual Max 43 -151 95.53 -1.581 0.0570 -3.529 0.2692 1.7899 2.0195 2.7012 (-) NS

Athabasca River at Hinton (1961 to 2003)

7Q 42 287 92.27 3.110 0.0009 0.188 -0.4772 -3.4342 -2.0211 -2.7045 (+) S Jan 47 -183 109.05 -1.678 0.0467 -0.271 0.2398 1.6572 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Feb 47 -143 109.05 -1.311 0.0949 -0.214 0.1700 1.1571 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Mar 47 -111 109.05 -1.018 0.1544 -0.116 0.1271 0.8595 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Apr 46 -99 105.62 -0.937 0.1743 -0.554 0.1312 0.8777 2.0154 2.6923 (-) NS May 47 -407 109.05 -3.732 0.0001 -3.242 0.5372 4.2729 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S Jun 47 -191 109.05 -1.752 0.0399 -1.277 0.2660 1.8508 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Jul 47 -35 109.05 -0.321 0.3741 -0.302 0.0570 0.3830 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Aug 47 -88 109.04 -0.807 0.2098 -0.498 0.1055 0.7114 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Sep 48 -162 112.51 -1.440 0.0750 -0.851 0.2060 1.4280 2.0129 2.6870 (-) NS Oct 48 -206 112.51 -1.831 0.0336 -0.996 0.2736 1.9289 2.0129 2.6870 (-) NS Nov 48 -208 112.51 -1.849 0.0322 -0.533 0.2599 1.8253 2.0129 2.6870 (-) NS Dec 48 -202 112.51 -1.795 0.0363 -0.338 0.2718 1.9157 2.0129 2.6870 (-) NS Annual 46 -309 105.62 -2.926 0.0017 -0.867 0.4194 3.0648 2.0154 2.6923 (-) S Spring 47 -397 109.05 -3.641 0.0001 -1.418 0.5023 3.8969 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S Summer 47 -89 109.05 -0.816 0.2072 -0.580 0.1259 0.8515 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Fall 48 -204 112.51 -1.813 0.0349 -0.809 0.2677 1.8844 2.0129 2.6870 (-) NS Winter 47 -179 109.05 -1.642 0.0503 -0.254 0.2463 1.7047 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS Annual Max 47 -356 109.02 -3.265 0.0005 -5.071 0.4876 3.7463 2.0141 2.6896 (-) S

Clear Water River at Draper (1930 to 2004)

7Q 47 -135 109.05 -1.238 0.1079 -0.155 0.1600 1.0876 2.0141 2.6896 (-) NS

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Table B-7: Statistical Test for Trend Analysis of Streamflows (cont’d)

Mann-Kendall Test Spearman Rank Order Correlation Coefficient Test

for Trend No. Data Test Stat Std.Dev. MK-Stat p-value Senslope rs t t(α=0.05) t(α=0.01) Trend

Jan 93 532 301.31 1.766 0.0387 0.008 -0.1841 -1.7866 -1.9864 -2.6309 (+) S Feb 93 358 301.31 1.188 0.1174 0.005 -0.1363 -1.3126 -1.9864 -2.6309 (+) NS Mar 93 730 301.31 2.423 0.0077 0.009 -0.2555 -2.5213 -1.9864 -2.6309 (+) S Apr 93 -44 301.31 -0.146 0.4419 -0.001 0.0092 0.0874 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS May 93 -220 301.31 -0.730 0.2327 -0.058 0.0776 0.7429 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS Jun 93 -178 301.31 -0.591 0.2773 -0.078 0.0623 0.5954 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS Jul 93 -484 301.31 -1.606 0.0541 -0.158 0.1733 1.6789 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS Aug 93 -1034 301.31 -3.432 0.0003 -0.161 0.3347 3.3879 1.9864 2.6309 (-) S Sep 93 -998 301.31 -3.312 0.0005 -0.088 0.3424 3.4769 1.9864 2.6309 (-) S Oct 93 -382 301.31 -1.268 0.1024 -0.021 0.1310 1.2602 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS Nov 93 -20 301.31 -0.066 0.4735 -0.001 0.0043 0.0413 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS Dec 93 486 301.31 1.613 0.0534 0.010 -0.1627 -1.5732 -1.9864 -2.6309 (+) NS Annual 93 -658 301.31 -2.184 0.0145 -0.046 0.2370 2.3266 1.9864 2.6309 (-) S Spring 93 -190 301.31 -0.631 0.2642 -0.017 0.0678 0.6478 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS Summer 93 -554 301.31 -1.839 0.0330 -0.135 0.1952 1.8985 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS Fall 93 -660 301.31 -2.190 0.0142 -0.032 0.2326 2.2815 1.9864 2.6309 (-) S Winter 93 392 301.31 1.301 0.0966 0.005 -0.1308 -1.2588 -1.9864 -2.6309 (+) NS Annual Max 93 -555 301.28 -1.842 0.0327 -0.412 0.1940 1.8865 1.9864 2.6309 (-) NS

Bow River at Banff (1909 to 2003)

7Q 93 564 301.31 1.872 0.0306 0.007 -0.2018 -1.9656 -1.9864 -2.6309 (+) S

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(a) Athabasca River Flow below Fort McMurray

y = -3.6958x + 7987.4R2 = 0.5808

y = 5E+40x-11.475

R2 = 0.5944

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual M

ean

Flow

s (m

3 /s)

(b) Bow River at Banff

y = -0.0284x + 95.145R2 = 0.1401 y = -0.125x + 287.04

R2 = 0.5975

y = 2E+22x-6.2666

R2 = 0.5968

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual M

ean

Flow

s(m

3 /s)

Figure B-7: Trends of Mean Annual Flows for Various Streamflow Stations

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(c) Athabasca River at Athabasca

y = -0.6345x + 1690.4R2 = 0.0886

y = 2E+12x-2.9523

R2 = 0.0935

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual M

ean

Flow

s (m

3 /s)

(d) Athabasca River at Hinton

y = -0.2665x + 702.46R2 = 0.1709

y = 1E+12x-3.0031

R2 = 0.1666

0

50

100

150

200

250

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual M

ean

Flow

s (m

3 /s)

Figure B-7: Trends of Mean Annual Flows for Various Streamflow Stations (cont’d)

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(e) Clearwater River at Draper

y = -1.0314x + 2165.5R2 = 0.5357

y = 3E+59x-17.42

R2 = 0.5509

0

50

100

150

200

250

1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004

Ann

ual M

ean

Flow

s (m

3 /s)

(f) Bow River at Calgary

y = -0.0824x + 251.26R2 = 0.0722

y = -0.3607x + 804.76R2 = 0.4102

y = 7E+27x-7.8587

R2 = 0.3975

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual M

ean

Flow

s (m

3 /s)

Figure B-7: Trends of Mean Annual Flows for Various Streamflow Stations (cont’d)

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(a) Athabasca River below Fort McMurray

y = -0.3113x + 763.4R2 = 0.1993

y = 4E+16x-4.39

R2 = 0.2074

0

50

100

150

200

250

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

7Q F

low

s (m

3 /s)

(b) Bow River at Banff

y = 0.0093x - 11.535R2 = 0.2671

y = -0.0103x + 27.328R2 = 0.0934

y = 1E+10x-2.8

R2 = 0.0846

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

7Q F

low

s (m

3 /s)

Figure B-8: Trends of 7-Day Lowflows for Various Streamflow Stations

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(c) Athabasca River Flow at Athabasca

y = 0.2223x - 359.76R2 = 0.1376

y = 5E-18x5.8219

R2 = 0.1512

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

7Q F

low

(m3 /s

)

(d) Athabasca River at Hinton

y = 0.1744x - 321.26R2 = 0.5563

y = 4E-46x14.177

R2 = 0.5484

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

7Q F

low

s (m

3 /s)

Figure B-8: Trends of 7-Day Lowflows for Various Streamflow Stations (cont’d)

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(e) Clearwater River at Draper

y = 9E+09x-2.5098

R2 = 0.105430

40

50

60

70

80

1974 1984 1994 2004

Flo

w (m

3 /s)

y = -0.0585x + 162.21R2 = 0.1055

0

10

20

1934 1944 1954 1964

7Q

Figure B-8: Trends of 7-Day Lowflows for Various Streamflow Stations (cont’d)

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Table B-8: Forecasted Flow Parameters to Year 2065 Based on Observed Trend Lines

Annual Mean Flow (m3/s) 7-day Lowflow (m3/s)

Station Name Station Number Latitude Longitude

Drainage Area (km2) Period

Average (1961-1990)

Forecasted to 2065

Percent change

(%) Average


to 2065

Percent change

(%) Athabasca River below Fort McMurray

07DA001 56°46'50¨N 111°24'0¨W 133,000 1957~2004 667.8 457.4 -31.5% 149.2 120.6 -19.2%

Athabasca River at Athabasca

07BE001 54°43'20¨N 113°17'10¨W 74,600 1952~2003 444.1 326.9 -26.4% 83.9 99.3 18.3%

Athabasca River at Hinton 07AD002 53°25'23¨N 117°34'14¨W 9,780 1961~2003 172.7 110.9 -35.8% 23.5 38.9 65.6% Clearwater River at Draper 07CD001 56°41'7¨N 111°15'15¨W 30,800 1930~2004 121.6 53.9 -55.7% 46.8 43.1 -7.8% Bow River at Banff 05BB001 51°10'30¨N 115°34'10¨W 2,210 1909~2003 39.5 36.5 -7.5% 6.9 7.7 11.2% Bow River at Calgary 05BH004 51°03'00¨N 114°03'00¨W 7,860 1911~2003 89.6 81.1 -9.5%

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B.1.3.4.5 Bow River at Banff (05BB001)

The Bow River at Banff station is not located in the oil sands region. This station has been included in the trend analysis because its record of natural flows goes back to 1909. In addition, the flows at this station may be more directly affected by climate change because the main source of runoff is glacial melt from the Rocky Mountains. The station also exhibits trends similar to the Athabasca River below Fort McMurray for the concurrent periods of record (see Figures B-7 (b) and B-8 (b)).

An analysis of the 93 years of data indicates that the annual mean and fall mean flows have decreasing trends that are significant at the five percent level (see Table B-7). The mean flows in winter indicates an increasing trend that is not significant, while the 7-day low flows indicates an increasing trend that is significant at the five percent level.

The relatively long series of data on the Bow River indicates that there are distinct cycles of wet and dry years, that is, the data exhibit cyclic patterns. These cycles appear to also be present in the flow series for the Athabasca River, however, the relative shortness of the latter series prevents more detailed analysis. Cycles in hydrologic series will tend to magnify trends when only partial segments of the cycles are analyzed. It appears that the long series of flow data on the Bow River provides a more realistic assessment of possible trends in flows.

Based on the trend line fitted to the recorded data, the forecast by the year 2065 suggests a decrease of about 8 percent for mean annual flows and an increase of about 11 percent in 7-day low flows compared to the 1961-1990 statistics (see Table B-8).

B.1.3.5 Findings

The results of an analysis of regional and local climatic and hydrologic variables in the oil sands region and in Alberta indicate a warming trend in the past three to four decades. The increasing trend of near surface air temperature is significant. The analysis shows that though there is a decrease in monthly precipitation in winter and at the beginning of fall, there is an increasing trend in spring and beginning of the summer season. The annual total precipitation indicates an increasing trend based on the analysis using recorded data at two stations. However, the increasing and decreasing trends in monthly and annual total precipitation are not significant at the five percent level.

The Athabasca River flow records at various stations including tributary rivers show a decreasing trend in recent years due to climate change or variability. Similar trends are also observed at the Bow River at Banff and at Calgary stations using data over the same period as the recorded Athabasca River flows (i.e., 1958-2003). However, using a longer period of record (i.e., 1909-2003), the

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analysis of the recorded flows for the Bow River shows trends that are less exaggerated compared to the 40 to 50-year flow series for the Athabasca River. It appears that cycles present in the hydrologic series tend to exaggerate trends when only partial segments of the cycles (due to short periods of record) are analyzed. Based on trends established using longer period of record on the Bow River, the mean annual flows would likely decrease by about 8 percent compared to about 30 percent using the shorter period (1958-2003). In addition, the analysis using the longer period of record indicates that the 7-day low flow would increase instead of the decreasing trend that is observed based on the shorter period of record. Hence, the recent 40 to 50 year period of records may not properly reflect the long-term trend due to climate variability, climate change or both.

Based on the trend analysis using recorded climate and hydrologic data in the oil sands region, it is difficult to establish a definite link between change in near surface air temperature, precipitation and flows in the Athabasca River. Therefore, there is a large degree of uncertainty in carrying the hydrologic effects of climate change or variability forward in time for any impact assessment. The GCMs suggest that an increase in near surface air temperature would result in increased precipitation. For the oil sands region, there is a clear increasing trend in near surface air temperature over the last three to four decades. However, the increase in air temperature did not result in corresponding increases or decreases in precipitation and streamflow.

There is a statistically insignificant increase in recorded precipitation in the last three to four decades. Recorded streamflows appear to follow a significant decreasing trend for the same period. This suggests that there may be an increase in the magnitude of actual evapotranspiration from a watershed. The only link that can be established between near surface air temperature and streamflows is the winter runoff for the Athabasca River at Hinton and the Bow River at Banff stations. An increase in near surface air temperature resulted in increased winter runoff as a result of early glacial melt in March and snow melt runoff in the months of October and November.

B.1.4 SENSITIVITY OF FLOWS IN THE ATHABASCA RIVER TRIBUTARY STREAMS TO POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CLIMATE PARAMETERS

B.1.4.1 General

The following sections present the results of a sensitivity analysis of imposed changes in air temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on flows in the Athabasca River tributary streams.

The calibrated HSPF model was used to carry out the sensitivity analysis. Fourteen combinations of precipitation and air temperature scenarios and two precipitation, air temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios were simulated. The simulation runs were done for the Beaver, Steepbank and Muskeg

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rivers in the oil sands region. Flow statistics (annual mean flow, winter mean flow, 10-year flood peak flow, 100-year flood peak flow, and 7-day, 10-year return period low flow or 7Q10) were derived from the simulated series and compared with the baseline statistics without accounting for the potential effects of climate change.

The sensitivity analysis was conducted by changing the HSPF model input (i.e., air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration) as follows:

• develop four daily precipitation series for the Fort McMurray Airport Station based on a constant change of ± 5 percent and ± 10 percent to the recorded daily amounts

• develop four daily mean air temperatures series for Fort McMurray based on a constant change of +1oC and +3oC to the recorded daily mean air temperatures

• develop two scenarios of combinations of changes in precipitation (i.e., increase by five percent and decrease by five percent), air temperature (i.e., increase by 3oC), and potential evapotranspiration (i.e., increase by 3 percent)

The results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in the following sections.

B.1.4.2 Beaver River

The Beaver River has a drainage area of about 165 km2 (square kilometres) at the Environment Canada (EC) Station 07DA018. The basin is well vegetated and consists mainly of upland areas (ground slopes greater than 0.5 percent) covered by peat soils that vary in thickness from 0.3 to 1 m (metre).

The results of the sensitivity analysis for the 14 combinations of changes in air temperature and precipitation are provided (see Table B-9). The maximum decrease of about 29 percent in annual mean flow occurs as a result of the combination of a 10 percent decrease in precipitation and a 3oC rise in daily air temperature. This combination also results in a decrease of about 35 percent in the 10-year peak flow. However, the mean winter flow increases by more than three times the baseline condition. A decrease in mean winter flow will occur only when precipitation is decreased by 5 percent and 10 percent.

B.1.4.3 Steepbank River

The Steepbank River has a drainage area of about 1320 km2 at the Environment Canada (EC) Station 07DA006. The basin is well vegetated and consists of 44 percent upland areas (ground slopes greater than 0.5 percent) and 56 percent lowlands (ground slopes less than 0.5 percent and extensive muskeg terrain).

The results of model simulations due to imposed changes in precipitation and air temperature for the Steepbank River are provided (see Table B-10). The

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sensitivity of the modelling results due to changes in model input parameters (i.e., precipitation and air temperature) for the Steepbank River is similar to that of the Beaver River. The maximum decrease in mean annual flow due to a 10 percent decrease in precipitation and a 3oC rise in air temperature is about 28 percent. The 7Q10 low flow will increase for most combinations of changes in precipitation and air temperature but will decrease marginally for the case when only precipitation is allowed to decrease (see Table B-10).

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Table B-9: Relative Sensitivity Analysis for Beaver River at EC Station 07DA018

Discharge Change to Discharge

Scenario Parameter Description Parameter

Change

Winter Mean (m³/s)

Annual Mean (m³/s)

10 year peak (m³/s)


Winter Mean (%)

Annual Mean (%)

10 year peak (%)

100 year peak (%)

0 Baseline Condition none 0.056 0.560 17.9 48.7

1 PAF Precipitation multiplication factor 5% 0.059 0.636 21.1 56.6 4.4 13.5 17.3 16.4

2 PAF Precipitation multiplication factor -5% 0.055 0.489 15.1 39.5 -2.7 -12.7 -15.9 -18.8

3 ATMP Air temperature +1°C 0.074 0.543 16.3 43.7 31.9 -3.2 -9.0 -10.2

4 ATMP Air temperature +3°C 0.167 0.528 15.9 44.0 197.1 -5.7 -11.2 -9.7

5 PAF, ATMP Precipitation multiplication factor, Air temperature

+5%, +1°C 0.078 0.618 18.6 46.9 39.0 10.3 3.8 -3.6


-5%, +1°C 0.072 0.473 14.3 38.0 28.5 -15.5 -20.0 -21.9


+5%, +3°C 0.179 0.601 18.4 50.7 219.3 7.3 2.4 4.2


-5%, +3°C 0.156 0.462 13.3 35.1 178.6 -17.5 -26.0 -27.9

9 PAF Precipitation multiplication factor +10% 0.063 0.716 23.5 60.1 12.6 27.7 30.8 23.6

10 PAF Precipitation multiplication factor -10% 0.051 0.421 12.5 33.2 -8.9 -24.8 -30.6 -31.8


+10%, +1°C 0.083 0.699 21.4 52.9 48.5 24.6 19.5 8.8


-10%,+1°C 0.067 0.407 12.1 31.8 19.6 -27.4 -32.5 -34.7


+10%, +3°C 0.191 0.678 20.5 56.4 240.7 21.0 14.0 16.0


-10%,+3°C 0.144 0.399 11.7 31.7 155.9 -28.9 -35.0 -34.9

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Table B-10: Relative Sensitivity Analysis for Steepbank River at EC Station 07DA006



Change

Winter Mean (m³/s)

Annual Mean (m³/s)

10 yearpeak (m³/s)


7Q10 (L/s)

Winter Mean (%)

Annual Mean (%)

10 year peak (%)

100 year peak (%)

7Q10 (%)

0 Baseline Condition none 0.540 4.957 57.0 81.2 0.095

1 PAF Precipitation multiplication factor

5% 0.559 5.579 62.5 87.3 0.101 3.5 12.5 9.5 7.4 5.8%


-5% 0.502 4.356 52.2 84.0 0.089 -7.0 -12.1 -8.4 3.4 -7.0%

3 ATMP Air temperature +1°C 0.604 4.830 53.2 86.6 0.105 11.7 -2.6 -6.6 6.6 9.6%

4 ATMP Air temperature +3°C 0.948 4.666 48.5 67.4 0.127 75.6 -5.9 -14.9 -17.1 33.4%


+5%, +1°C 0.618 5.440 58.1 89.1 0.109 14.3 9.7 1.9 9.7 14.5%


-5%, +1°C 0.561 4.242 48.5 78.1 0.098 3.8 -14.4 -15.0 -3.8 3.0%


+5%, +3°C 1.016 5.256 53.2 72.7 0.132 88.0 6.0 -6.7 -10.5 38.7%


-5%, +3°C 0.859 4.095 44.6 71.1 0.119 59.1 -17.4 -21.7 -12.5 24.6%


+10% 0.577 6.231 67.5 88.2 0.107 6.8 25.7 18.3 8.6 11.9%


-10% 0.489 3.796 46.6 75.5 0.082 -9.4 -23.4 -18.2 -7.1 -14.0%


+10%, +1°C 0.636 6.076 63.6 96.0 0.114 17.7 22.6 11.6 18.2 19.3%


-10%,+1°C 0.541 3.694 43.6 71.9 0.091 0.1 -25.5 -23.5 -11.5 -5.1%


+10%, +3°C 1.068 5.872 57.7 87.6 0.138 97.7 18.5 1.3 7.8 44.7%


-10%,+3°C 0.794 3.566 40.0 63.2 0.113 47.0 -28.1 -29.9 -22.2 17.9%

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B.1.4.4 Muskeg River

The Muskeg River has a drainage area of about 1460 km2 at the Environment Canada (EC) Station 07DA008. The basin is well vegetated and consists of about 53 percent upland areas (ground slopes greater than 0.5 percent) and 47 percent lowland areas (ground slopes less than 0.5 percent and extensive muskeg terrain).

The results of the sensitivity analysis of the model’s output to changes in precipitation and air temperature is provided (see Table B-11). In addition to the fourteen combinations of precipitation and air temperature, a sensitivity analysis of two combinations of precipitation, air temperature and potential evaporation was performed for the Muskeg River watershed (see Table B-11). Theoretically, an increase in air temperature could result in an increase in potential evapotranspiration if all other parameters that govern potential evapotranspiration remain constant. This theoretical case is considered in the sensitivity analysis by increasing the potential evapotranspiration by three percent for the two scenarios (see Table B-11). The combination of a decrease in precipitation by three percent, an increase air temperature by 3oC and an increase potential evapotranspiration by 3 percent, results in a decrease of annual mean runoff and 10-year peak flow by about 13 percent and 18 percent, respectively. However, the 7Q10 low flow will increase by 21 percent.

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Table B-11: Relative Sensitivity Analysis for Muskeg River at EC Station 07DA008



Change

Winter Mean (m³/s)

Annual Mean (m³/s)



7Q10 (L/s)

Winter Mean (%)

Annual Mean (%)

10 year peak (%)

100 year peak (%)

7Q10 (%)

0 Baseline Condition none 0.443 3.871 51.9 86.2 20.0


5% 0.474 4.389 57.3 91.8 24.5 7.1 13.4 10.4 6.5 20.2


-5% 0.431 3.388 46.1 79.4 18.6 -2.5 -12.5 -11.1 -7.9 -9.1

3 ATMP Air temperature +1°C 0.535 3.776 48.3 78.8 21.8 20.8 -2.5 -6.9 -8.7 6.8

4 ATMP Air temperature +3°C 1.088 3.753 46.4 77.6 28.3 145.7 -3.0 -10.6 -10.1 38.7


+5%, +1°C 0.568 4.288 52.8 79.7 26.0 28.3 10.8 1.8 -7.5 27.5


-5%, +1°C 0.518 3.303 43.7 75.5 19.5 16.9 -14.7 -15.7 -12.5 -4.4


+5%, +3°C 1.183 4.247 51.1 83.9 31.3 167.3 9.7 -1.5 -2.7 53.2


-5%, +3°C 1.011 3.298 41.8 71.3 26.2 128.4 -14.8 -19.3 -17.3 28.3


+10% 0.492 4.935 62.4 94.9 28.1 11.1 27.5 20.4 10.0 37.5


-10% 0.405 2.931 40.2 70.7 17.3 -8.4 -24.3 -22.6 -18.0 -15.1


+10%, +1°C 0.600 4.828 57.1 80.7 30.0 35.6 24.7 10.1 -6.4 47.1


-10%,+1°C 0.484 2.855 38.1 64.5 17.1 9.3 -26.3 -26.6 -25.2 -16.2


+10%, +3°C 1.273 4.768 55.5 88.0 37.2 187.5 23.2 7.0 2.0 82.1


-10%,+3°C 0.929 2.871 37.3 62.8 21.9 109.7 -25.8 -28.2 -27.2 7.0

15 PAF, ATMP, EVAP

Precipitation multiplication factor, Air temperature, Potential Evapotranspiration

+5%,+3°C, 3% 4.111 50.20 83.3 29.0 6.2% -3.2% -3.5% 41.9%

16 PAF, ATMP, EVAP

Precipitation multiplication factor, Air temperature, Potential Evapotranspiration

-3%,+3°C, 3% 3.356 42.68 72.6 24.8 -13.3% -17.7% -15.8% 21.2%

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B.1.4.5 Findings

The sensitivity of the HSPF model outputs, which are used in impact assessments was performed using imposed changes on parameters that may represent potential climate change or variability such as precipitation, air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. The results of the modelled sensitivity analysis indicate the following:

• An increase in precipitation by 5 percent or 10 percent will result in an increase in all model output flow parameters.

• A decrease in precipitation by five percent will result in decreased model output flow parameters. A larger decrease in precipitation by 10 percent will result in larger decreases in annual mean flows (i.e. about 24 percent), 10-year peak (i.e., about 18 to 31 percent), and 7Q10 low flow (i.e., about 14 to 15 percent).

• An increase in air temperature by 1oC or 3oC will have relatively small effects on mean annual and 10-year peak flows, but will result in a large increase in mean winter flow and 7Q10 low flow.

• A combination of changes in precipitation, air temperature and potential evapotranspiration will result in an increase in annual mean runoff (i.e., by about six percent) if precipitation increases by five percent and a decrease in annual mean runoff (i.e., by about 13 percent) if precipitation decreases by three percent.

• An increase in air temperature (i.e., by 3oC) and potential evapotranspiration (i.e., by three percent) for both scenarios of precipitation (increase by five percent and decrease by three percent) will result in increases in the 7Q10 low flows.

B.1.5 CONCLUSIONS

The results of the literature review on climate change, climate variability or both, and the analysis of local and regional climatic and hydrologic variables in the oil sands region support the following conclusions:

• There has been a warming trend (increasing trend in near surface air temperature) in the past three to four decades in the oil sands region.

• The recorded annual total precipitation, and precipitation in spring and at the beginning of summer show increasing trends while precipitation in winter and beginning of fall shows a decreasing trend. However, the increasing and decreasing trends in precipitation are not significant.

• The analysis of recorded annual mean flows in the oil sands region and other parts of Alberta indicates a significant decreasing trend in recent years as a

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result of climate change or variability, or both. However, the results of an analysis of longer period of flow record (about 90 years) for the Bow River at Banff show less exaggerated trends compared to the 40 to 50 years of records available for the Athabasca River. Hence, data in the last 40 to 50-year period may not properly reflect the longer term trend.

• Based on the longer (about 90 years) period of record data for the Bow River at Banff, 7-day low flows show an increasing trend. Warmer winter temperatures have resulted in snowmelt runoff in October and November and early snowmelt in March.

• It is not possible to reliably predict any future hydrologic effects due to climate change or variability forward in time for any environmental impact assessment, since the linkage between changes in air temperature and precipitation, and changes in streamflows in the oil sands region can not be established on the basis of available data.

The results of the streamflow analysis and the sensitivity analysis of the Athabasca River tributary streams in the oil sands region due to potential climate change or variability, support the following conclusions, which are used for assessing the effects of climate change on impact assessment sections:

• The mean annual flow for the Athabasca River could potentially decrease by about 10 percent over the next 60 years.

• The 7-day low flow for the Athabasca River would remain unchanged. This is a conservative prediction, because model simulation as well as an analysis of both regional and local data indicates an increasing trend.

• The sensitivity of flows in small tributary streams to Athabasca River to potential climate change can be analyzed for effect assessment by assuming an increase of 3oC in air temperature, an increase of five percent and a decrease of three percent in annual precipitation (i.e., two scenarios), and an increase of three percent in potential evapotranspiration over the next 60 years.

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B.1.6 BIBLIOGRAPHY

B.1.6.1 Literatrue Cited

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