vrije universiteit amsterdam institute for environmental studies (ivm) 1 (support for)...

Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 1vrije Universiteit amsterdam

(Support for)Decision-making

Marjan van HerwijnenInstituut voor Milieuvraagstukken

Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam


Program

Decision-making Planning processes:

– meadows of Rijnwaarden – water management in IJsselmeer

Evaluation and valuation: – Hondsbossche seawall


What can go wrong?

No decision Wrong decision Wrong decision strategy


No decision


Wrong decision

Ra

Rt-Ra

Rt

Assume a rope around the earth which is 10 meter longer than the circumference of the earth.

Can a mouse walk under it?

2Ra +10 = 2Rt

Rt = Ra + 10/2Rt-Ra = 10/2 1.6 m


Solution

Height= 1/8 * 10 meter= 1.25 meter

The height is independent of the radius!


1. House with bar (HB)2. House without bar (H)3. No house (NH)

1. Scrooge2. Drunkard3. Health freak

Scrooge NH > H > HB

Drunkard HB > NH > H

Health freak H > NH > HB^^

^^

^^


First x x x

Second xx x

Third x xx

No house House House with bar


Step by step or simultaneous Alternatives

1. Kamper island storage above ground level2. Lake Ketel storage under water level3. Lake Ketel storage above water level

Criteria1. Costs2. Landscape3. Nuisance

Performance

Costs Kamper island > LK under > LK above waterLandscape LK under > Kamper island > LK Above waterNuisance LK above > Kamper island > LK under water


Kamper island Lake Ketel Lake Ketelunder water above water

first x x x

second xx x

third x xx


ill-structured problems multiple

objectives alternatives actors

reduce complexity to manageable proportions facts (objectivity) and values (subjectivity) uncertainty need for transparency

Characteristics of problems


Information processing (I)

information

Input Output

decisionprocedure

decision


Information processing (II)

Input Output

decisionprocedure

decision

information

persons

organisation


SustainabilityA-TestAdvanced Techniques for Evaluation of Sustainability Assessment Tools


SustainabilityA-Test: Overview

EU project (DG research) in 6th Framework; Start: March 2004 End: August 2006 Budget: 1.3 million euro 18 European project partners Three phases:

– Design phase;– Case study on agriculture and land use;– Integration and synthesis


SustainabilityA-Test: goals Overall goal is:

– to give support to the definition and implementation of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy;

This will be done by: – recognizing the common and emerging tools that can be used

to measure or assess sustainable development;– examining the theoretical and conceptual basis of the tools;– developing an evaluation framework that includes aspects for:

• various stages of policy and• sustainable development

– applying the evaluation framework consistent and peer-reviewed.


The webbook: home page


The webbook: Overview


The webbook: Book of References


Webbook can be found on:– www.SustainabilityA-Test.net

Final conference:– Tuesday June 20, 2006

Royal AcademyBrussels, Belgium

Dissemination


Het gebruik van ICT instrumenten ter ondersteuning van de ruimtelijke planvorming

Instituut voor MilieuvraagstukkenVrije Universiteit De Boelelaan 11151081 HV Amsterdamhttp://www.vu.nl/ivm

M.van Herwijnen, M,S,G, Horrevoets, R.Janssen en A.Teunissen


Planning processes

meadows of Rijnwaarden water management in IJsselmeer


search screen

design

recognition

judgementevaluation/choice

negotationevaluation/choice

diagnose

analysis/evaluation

autorisation

identification development selection


Rijnwaarden: Screening

Goal: Screening the band width

By means of: Design by landscape architects of three extreme

scenario’s Supported by GIS


Rijnwaarden: Vision making

Goal: Formulating a compromise alternative; the draft

design

By means of: Presentation of the extreme alternatives Input of stakeholders through idea-evenings Supported by photographs, maps, oral explanation, a

puzzle and discussion


Rijnwaarden: Design

Goal: Expanding the draft design to an integral

design

By means of: Presentation evenings Interaction between stakeholders and

landscape architects


Rijnwaarden: screening

0.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1. participatie

2. draagvlak

3. aanpasbaarheid

4. legitimiteit

5. efficiency

6. doelgericht

7. verantwoording

8. datagebaseerd

1.001.005.00

2.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

Consensusperspectief

Politiek perspectief

Ratioperspectief

Empirisch perspectief


Rijnwaarden: vision making

0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

10. 1. participatie

2. draagvlak

3. aanpasbaarheid

4. legitimiteit

5. efficiency

6. doelgericht

7. verantwoording

8. datagebaseerd 8.00

7.00

5.00

5.00 3.00 3.00

3.00

3.00

Empirisch perspectief Consensusperspectief

Politiek perspectief Ratioperspectief


ICT instruments for Rijnwaarden

Smartmap can replace the drawings on flap-overs

Spatial evaluation methods can support the evaluation of the extreme alternatives and help translate them to draft design.

The map presentations are already very suitable to communicate the information to the stakeholders.


Planning processes

meadows of Rijnwaarden water management in IJsselmeer


zoek screen

ontwerp

erkenning

beoordelingevaluatie/keuze

onderhandelingevaluatie/keuze

diagnose

analyse/evaluatie

autorisatie


IJsselmeer: recognition phase

0.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1. participatie

2. draagvlak

3. aanpasbaarheid

4. legitimiteit

5. efficiency

6. doelgericht

7. verantwoording

8. datagebaseerd

5.00

3.00

3.00

2.00

4.00

8.00

8.00

9.00



Ratioperspectief



IJsselmeer: generating alternatives

0.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1. participatie

2. draagvlak

3. aanpasbaarheid

4. legitimiteit

5. efficiency

6. doelgericht

7. verantwoording

8. datagebaseerd9.00

8.00

6.00

7.00

3.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Consensusperspetief

Politiek perspectiefRatioperspectief



IJsselmeer: evaluation/prioritize

0.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

1. participatie

2. draagvlak

3. aanpasbaarheid

4. legitimiteit

5. efficiency

6. doelgericht

7. verantwoording

8. datagebaseerd

5.00

5.00

7.00

7.005.00

5.00

2.00

2.00



Ratioperspectief



The use of WINBOS output

The results of WINBOS have played a minor role in the evaluation and the design rounds. Part of this is due to the delayed availability of WINBOS in the various phases.

Limiting factor was not so much the reliability of the model, which was judged very highly, but the way the information was offered.


LegendaZeer diep water Diep water met waterplanten Diep water zonder waterplantenMatig diep water met waterplanten Matig diep water zonder waterplanten Ondiep water met waterplanten Ondiep water zonder waterplanten Ondiep water met helofyten Laag gelegen bos Laag gelegen grasland Laag gelegen kaal Laag gelegen ruigte Hoog gelegen bos Hoog gelegen grasland Hoog gelegen kaal Hoog gelegen ruigte

N

0 500 1000 Meters

Deep water with water plantsDeep water without water plantsModerately deep water with water plantsModerately deep water without water plantsShallow water with water plants

Shallow water with helophytesShallow water without water plants

Very deep water

Low situated forestLow situated grasslandLow situated bareLow situated shrubHigh situated forestHigh situated grasslandHigh situated bareHigh situated shrub

Ecotopes

Mosaic map Dominant map

1 1

2 2


0%11 %22 %33 %44 %56 %67 %78 %89 %100 %

011 %22 %33 %44 %56 %67 %78 %89 %100 %

0 %11 %22 %33 %44 %56 %67 %78 %89 %100 %

N N N

0 500 1000 Meters 0 500 1000 Meters0 500 1000 Meters

Probability Probability Probability

Low situated grassland Low situated shrubLow situated forest

2

1

2

1

2

1


L e g e n d aW a t e r m e t w a t e r p l .W a t e r z o n d e r w a t e r p l .L a a g g e l e g e n b o s L a a g g e l e g e n g r a s l .L a a g g e l e g e n k a a l L a a g g e l e g e n r u ig t e H o o g g e le g e n b o s H o o g g e le g e n g r a s l .H o o g g e le g e n k a a l H o o g g e le g e n r u i g t e

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 M e t e r s

N

EcotopesWater with water plantsWater without water plantsLow situated forestLow situated grasslandLow situated bareLow situated shrubHigh situated forestHigh situated grasslandHigh situated bareHigh situated shrub

Water directly transportedWater stored horizontallyWater stored vertically


E c o t o p e nZ e e r d ie p w a t e r D i e p w a t e r m e t w p l D i e p w a t e r - w p lM a t i g d i e p w t r + w p l M a t i g d i e p w t r - w p lO n d ie p w a t e r + w p lO n d ie p w a t e r - w p lO n d ie p w t r + h e l o f y t e n L a a g g e le g e n b o s L a a g g e le g e n g r a s la n d L a a g g e le g e n k a a l L a a g g e le g e n r u ig t e H o o g g e l e g e n b o s H o o g g e l e g e n g r a s la n d H o o g g e l e g e n k a a l H o o g g e l e g e n r u i g t e

N NN0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 M e t e r s

N

Water stored vertically Water stored horizontally Water directly transported

Deep water with wp.Deep water without wp.Moderately deep w. with wp.Moderately deep w. without wp.Shallow water with wp.

Shallow water with helophytesShallow water without wp.

Very deep water




Very deep water




Very deep water


Ecotopes


1234

N N

1234

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0

M e te r s

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0

M e te r s

4

3

2

1

Number of target types of breeding birds

4

3

2

1

Number of target types of breeding birds

1-78-1415-2122-28

1-23-67-1516-28

Number of target typesNumber of target types

Value map of breeding birds

Value map of breeding birds


1234

NN N N

0 600 1200Meters

(the least valuable)

(the most valuable)

Value

Value breeding birds Value non-breeding birds

Value birds (0.5-0.5)

Value birds (0.75-0.25)


Waardekaarten1234No Data

0 500 1000 Meters

N

Reclass of Map Calculation 1WVB << WHBWVB < WHBWVB = WHBWVB >> WHBWVB > WHB

Value map birds Water stored vertically

Value map birds Water stored horizontally

Difference map

Difference (WSV-WSH)WSV << WSHWSV < WSHWSV = WSHWSV > WSHWSV >> WSH

Value1 (the least valuable)234 (the most valuable)


WHBWVBWDAgeen

alternatief

0 500 1000 Meters

N

Best alternative map Worst alternative map

AlternativesNo alternatives best or worstWater directly transportedWater stored verticallyWater stored horizontally


Project ‘The Benefits of Water’Project ‘The Benefits of Water’

Goal : Show the social benefits of water management

Saline case-study : Management & policy of the North Sea and the Duthc coast.

. 1. Integral trade-off ‘Hondsbossche Seawall,

trigger: potential bottleneck in the coastal defence

2. Integral trade-off Sea-reserve Voordelta,

trigger: compensation/restoration of the biodiversity North sea

Done in 2001

Cooperation between IVM, RA, Alterra, RIKZ, RIZA en BD


Project ‘The Benefits of Water’

Goal: – Show the social benefits of water management

Saline case-study: – Management & policy of the North Sea and the Dutch coast.

Cooperation between IVM, RA, Alterra, RIKZ, RIZA en BD– Done in 2001

Integral trade-off ‘Hondsbossche Seawall– trigger: potential bottleneck in the coastal defence


BastionBastion DunesDunes SlufterSlufter


Process in the Saline case-studyProcess in the Saline case-study

3 perceptions: Geld (money) Economy

Groen (green) Ecology

Gevoel (emotion) Social Cultural

3 steps: Quantificaton of Effects

Evaluation with help of indicators

Trade-off within and between de 3 G’s

3 alternatives per case: Hondsbossche Bastion

Hondsbossche Dunes

Hondsbossche Slufter


Economic valuation (1)Economic valuation (1)case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’

Effect Valuation methodOmzet landbouw Verdrongen productie

Verandering productiviteitMarktprijzen

Opbrengst Recreanten Verandering aantal recreantenVerandering in beleving

Reiskostenbenadering

Perceptie gewaarb.Veiligheid

Verandering in beleving Contigent ValuationMethod

Perceptie van biodiversiteit Verandering in beleving Contigent ValuationMethod

Zoetwateropslag en –winning

Verworven productie Marktprijzen

Onroerendgoedwaarde Verandering huizenprijzenVerandering in aantal huizen

Hedonische prijzenMarktwaarde

Visserij opbrengst Onstaan kraamkamer Productiefunctiemethode

Economische bedrijvigheid Vermeden overstromingsschade Risico-analyse


Bastion(in miljoen guldens)

Duinen(in miljoen guldens)

Slufter(in miljoen guldens)

Kosten

Investering 138 227 145

Onderhoud 21 4 5

Baten

Landbouw 9,6 10,3 0

Recreatie 0 0,6 4,2

Perceptie van veiligheid 18,8 13,4 0

Perceptie van biodiversiteit 0 5,4 26,9

Zoetwateropslag en -winning 0,1 0,6 0

Onroerend goed 24,3 121,4 108,8

Visserij 0 0 22,5

Voorkomen schade 135,2 105,4 83,6

Netto Contante Waarde 30 26 97

Kosten Baten ratio 1,2 1,1 1,7

Noot: periode 2000-2050, de jaarlijkse opbrengsten zijn verdisconteerd tegen een discontovoet van 4 procent

Economic Valuation (2)Economic Valuation (2)case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’


Conclusions

Well-considered trade-off and decisions need integral information (such as geld, groen en gevoel);

Research and trade-off has to influence and inspire each other constantly;

‘Play with knowledge’ in stead of presenting knowledge improves well-considered decision-making with a larger public support.


Valuation and evaluation methodsEnvironment Economy Social/Culture Evaluation

Cost Effectivenessanalysis (CEA)

Social-Economicanalysis (SEA)

Extended cost-Benefit analysis

Integrated

Nature Efficiency analysis (NEA)

Environmental and / or natural values

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

Financial and/or economic

values

Separate

Local support analysis (DA)

Social and/or cultural values

Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

Graphic Evaluation Analysis (GEA)

vrije universiteit amsterdam institute for environmental studies (ivm) 1 (support for)...

Documents

amsterdam slide

environmental studies

water slide

bar slide

overview slide

synthesis slide

teunissen slide

hv amsterdam http