Washoe County TodayApril 20, 2012

Brian KaiserHousing and Real Estate Analyst

Center for Regional StudiesUniversity of Nevada, Reno

916-209-8578briank@unr.edu

Housing Market

• The Bubble’s Aftermath• Foreclosure Trends• Resale Trends• New Home Sales

1q01

2q01

3q01

4q01

1q02

2q02

3q02

4q02

1q03

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3q03

4q03

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1q12

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$350,000

$145,000$195,000

$248,300

Greater Reno-Sparks Median Price

1% Quarterly Appreciation Rate

Peak (4Q05): $155,000 "Bubble"

1990-2001 = 0.97% average appreciation rate perquarter (blue trendline)

Quarterly Change1Q11: -5.9%2Q11: -5.6%3Q11: -0.3%4Q11: -0.1%1Q12: -3.6%

Annual Change1Q11 to 1Q12: -9.4%

Jan

-09

Feb

-09

Mar

-09

Ap

r-09

May

-09

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Au

g-0

9

Sep

-09

Oct

-09

No

v-09

Dec

-09

Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Mar

-10

Ap

r-10

May

-10

Jun

-10

Jul-

10

Au

g-1

0

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-10

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-10

No

v-10

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-10

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar

-11

Ap

r-11

May

-11

Jun

-11

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11

Au

g-1

1

Sep

-11

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-11

No

v-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

New Monthly Home Foreclosures & Notice of Defaults - Washoe County

Notice of De-fault

Median Sales Price of Short-Sales, Bank-Owned Resales, & Non-

Distressed Sales

Washoe County (Single-Family Homes)

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

$250,000

$260,000

$270,000

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr-0

9

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-

09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-1

0

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-1

1

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Median Sale Price: Short Sale, MLS

Median Sale Price: Bank Owned, MLS

Median Sale Price: Non-Distressed, MLS

February 2012Short Sales: 29% of All Sales 23% are Cash Sales

Bank Owned: 42% of All Sales 33% are Cash SalesNon-Distressed: 29% of All Sales 21% are Cash SalesAll Single-Family Homes: ($145,000) 27% are Cash Sales

New Single-Family Home Sales & Median Values - Washoe County

91

81

114

128131

111

117112

67

54

25

32

40 40

64 6461

102

65

48

6966

73

47

27 28

49

6158

77

2723

4044

4944

22

3833

29

4542 43

3236

21

47

39

25

19

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nu

mb

er o

f N

ew H

om

e S

ales

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Med

ian N

ew H

om

e Sales P

rice

Number of New Home Sales

Median New Home Sales Price Peak: (Feb-06) $423,311

Peak: (Nov-05) 315 Sales

2008:

1,063 sales (89/month)

2009:

739 sales (62/month)

2010:

527 sales (44/month)

2011:

427 sales (36/month)

Factors Affecting the Housing Market

• Employment and Unemployment• Consumer Confidence and Taxable Sales• Population Trends (In/Out Migration)

Monthly Employment - Reno/Sparks MSA

180,000

185,000

190,000

195,000

200,000

205,000

210,000

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000

Jan

-06

Feb

-06

Mar-

06

Ap

r-06

May-0

6Ju

n-0

6Ju

l-06

Au

g-0

6S

ep

-06

Oct-

06

No

v-0

6D

ec-0

6Jan

-07

Feb

-07

Mar-

07

Ap

r-07

May-0

7Ju

n-0

7Ju

l-07

Au

g-0

7S

ep

-07

Oct-

07

No

v-0

7D

ec-0

7Jan

-08

Feb

-08

Mar-

08

Ap

r-08

May-0

8Ju

n-0

8Ju

l-08

Au

g-0

8S

ep

-08

Oct-

08

No

v-0

8D

ec-0

8Jan

-09

Feb

-09

Mar-

09

Ap

r-09

May-0

9Ju

n-0

9Ju

l-09

Au

g-0

9S

ep

-09

Oct-

09

No

v-0

9D

ec-0

9Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Mar-

10

Ap

r-10

May-1

0Ju

n-1

0Ju

l-10

Au

g-1

0S

ep

-10

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0D

ec-1

0Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar-

11

Ap

r-11

May-1

1Ju

n-1

1Ju

l-11

Au

g-1

1S

ep

-11

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1D

ec-1

1Jan

-12

Feb

-12

February 2012 Total - 186,200

Jan-Dec 2008:-7,000

Employees

Jan-Dec 2007:+7,100

Employees

Jan-Dec 2006:+13,300

Employees

Jan-Dec 2009:-4,700

Employees

Jan-Dec 2010:+5,900

Employees

Feb10-Feb11: -100

Feb11-Feb12:-400

Jan-12 Unemployment Rate: 13.0%

Feb-11 Unemployment Rate: 13.5%

**Peak = 228,100 Emp

Feb-12 Unemployment Rate: 12.2%**Start of Great Recession

**End of Great Recession

(Not Seasonally-Adjusted)

Jan-Dec 2011:+7,500

Employees

(Year 2000 Level)

Month Over Month Employment Change - Reno/Sparks MSA

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

Jan

-07

Feb

-07

Mar

-07

Ap

r-07

May

-07

Jun

-07

Jul-

07A

ug

-07

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

No

v-07

Dec

-07

Jan

-08

Feb

-08

Mar

-08

Ap

r-08

May

-08

Jun

-08

Jul-

08A

ug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

No

v-08

Dec

-08

Jan

-09

Feb

-09

Mar

-09

Ap

r-09

May

-09

Jun

-09

Jul-

09A

ug

-09

Sep

-09

Oct

-09

No

v-09

Dec

-09

Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Mar

-10

Ap

r-10

May

-10

Jun

-10

Jul-

10A

ug

-10

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

No

v-10

Dec

-10

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar

-11

Ap

r-11

May

-11

Jun

-11

Jul-

11A

ug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

No

v-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

Local Government -1,000 -6.3%Construction -600 -7.4%Retail -500 -2.4%State Government -300 -2.9%Manufacturing -300 -2.7%Financial Activites -200 -2.3%Wholesale -200 -2.3%Education and Health Services -100 -0.5%Information -100 -4.5%Federal Government -100 -2.9%

TOTAL -3,400

Between February 2011 & February 2012 - Reno MSA

Employment Decreases by Sector

Leisure & Hospitality 2,200 6.6%Professional & Business Services 600 2.6%Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 100 0.8%Other Services 100 1.7%

TOTAL 3,000

Between February 2011 & February 2012 - Reno MSA

Employment Increases by Sector

Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales(Year Over Year)

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

1Q -

199

8

1Q -

199

9

1Q -

200

0

1Q -

200

1

1Q -

200

2

1Q -

200

3

1Q -

200

4

1Q -

200

5

1Q -

200

6

1Q -

200

7

1Q -

200

8

1Q -

200

9

1Q -

201

0

1Q -

201

1

NEVADA

CLARK

WASHOE

Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales(Year Over Year)

-25.0%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

1Q -

199

8

1Q -

199

9

1Q -

200

0

1Q -

200

1

1Q -

200

2

1Q -

200

3

1Q -

200

4

1Q -

200

5

1Q -

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1Q -

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1Q -

200

8

1Q -

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9

1Q -

201

0

1Q -

201

1

NEVADA CLARK

WASHOE BALANCE

Washoe County Population Estimates (2000-2010)

421,593417,379

341,935

421,407

341,415

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

400,000

420,000

440,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Washoe County (State Demographer)

Washoe County (Census Bureau)

Washoe County In & Out-Migration - IRS Tax Return Exemptions

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010200920082007200620052004200320022001

In-Migration

Out-Migration

Net Migration

UNR’s Center for Regional Studies

Visit our website to download a copy of this presentation and to see all of the data that we provide for the Northern Nevada area

www.CenterForRegionalStudies.org

Brian Kaiser

Briank @ unr.edu