waste accumulation in greater cochin

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CLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITIES and RESPONSES IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY CITYLESSONS FROM COCHIN, INDIA

by Thomas J. Wilbanks, J. Timothy Ensminger, and C. K. Rajan

Many aspects of sustainability are focused on where people live, and increas-

ingly worldwide, people live in cities.1 Looking a half-century or more into

the future, one of the key issues for the world’s cities is coping with rapid

growth,2 especially when cities are in locations vulnerable to environmental

stress, and a very salient example of an emerging environmental stress is

climate change.3 How might a city—especially in the developing world—be

vulnerable to impacts of climate change, and what kinds of responses make

sense for them now in a larger context of sustainable development? Consider

the case of Cochin, India.

24 ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 49 NUMBER 5

The Challenge

Since the late 1990s, the knowledge base about implications of climate change for cities in industrialized countries has been growing, although the number of comprehensive case studies is still lim-ited.4 Equivalent information about possi-ble impacts on cities in developing coun-tries is much more limited, at least partly because of a perceived shortage of data to support sound assessments, including a lack of relatively small-scale regional climate change forecasts for developing countries and a lack of relatively detailed data about urban systems and projected changes in those systems.

Rather than accepting that judgment as an insurmountable obstacle—espe-cially given that vulnerabilities to cli-mate change impacts are probably more serious in developing countries than in industrialized countries—an assessment was undertaken with the support of the U.S. Agency for International Develop-ment (USAID) as an experiment, with three generic aims:

• to learn about potentials and limita-tions of climate change impact assess-ments in developing country cities, based on currently available data;

• to evaluate whether reductions in climate change impact vulnerability can be related to other, more current urban

development needs in developing coun-tries; and

• to take a first step toward establishing assessment approaches and tools that can be used by developing countries world-wide to assess their own vulnerabilities and response options.

The assessment, conducted from December 2001 to June 2003 through a partnership between the Cochin Univer-sity of Science and Technology (CUSAT) and the Oak Ridge National Labora-tory (ORNL) in Tennessee,5 was built on two underlying philosophies about how climate change might be of interest to a developing country city already strug-gling to cope with a host of sustainable development challenges. First, impacts of global climate change on develop-ing country cities are likely to focus not on climate changes in isolation but on interactions between climate change and other stresses on the city’s growth and development, such as waterlogging or waste disposal. Second, because climate change is a long-term issue surrounded by uncertainties, it is not generally appro-priate to take actions now to reduce pos-sible climate change impacts unless those actions also contribute to addressing cur-rent urban sustainability problems.

The Cochin Case

Cochin, which was officially renamed Kochi in 1996 but is still widely referred to by the former name, is a historic port city in the state of Kerala on the south-west coast of India (see Figure 1 on this page). It was selected for assessment partly because city leaders offered their cooperation—but also partly because Cochin would appear to be less vulner-able to impacts of climate change than many other developing country cities. In fact, if a person were to select an Indian city relatively unlikely to be nega-tively impacted by global climate change, that city might be Cochin. For instance, the immediate proximity of Cochin to the ocean would be expected to moder-

SOURCE: Adapted from MapArt, CD-ROM, Cartesia Software.

Figure 1. Cochin, Kerala, India

KeralaCochin

Arabian Sea

Bay of Bengal

JUNE 2007 ENVIRONMENT 25

ate temperature increases, and its west coast location—sheltered by the Western Ghat mountain range—protects it from impacts of damaging monsoonal storms that plague India’s east coast. Moreover, Cochin is recognized as a well-managed city, located in a state with a high level of social services, and its adaptive capaci-ties would be expected to be unusually high. As a result, if an assessment were to identify significant impact concerns in Cochin, one implication would be that many other Indian cities may have more serious possible impacts to consider. Another reason Cochin was chosen was that the metropolitan area is involved in a number of infrastructure improve-ment projects where investments might be negatively affected by climate change, and it has a reputation as a city that often serves as an innovator in pioneering new issues and responses.

To set the scene, Cochin is a charming coastal city that consists of a number of low-lying islands, peninsulas, and other parts of the mainland linked by water bodies, including a major international harbor, rivers, and canals (see Figure 2 on this page and the photos on pages 26 and 27). The average elevation of the city is about 1.5 meters. The city has a population of about 600,000 within a metropolitan area of about 2 million, growing at a relatively modest rate by the standards of most Indian cities, although a little faster than the state’s rate of growth of about 12 percent in the past decade. The canals of Cochin are a part of its distinctive character and are his-torically important for drainage, water supply, waste disposal, transportation, and commerce.

Cochin shares with the rest of its state remarkably high social indicators for a developing country city—a literacy rate reported to be virtually 100 percent and life spans comparable to the United States—and its long history of international trade makes it unusually cosmopolitan, often linked more strongly through family and friendship networks with other countries than with other parts of India.

It has a long history of enterprise, which is represented quite dramatically by an enormously ambitious project to construct the largest and most modern container port facility between the Mid-dle East and Singapore. Often referred to as “The Three Bridges Project,” it is locally self-financed and includes the construction of three bridges and a world-class shipping terminal. Most of the work on the bridges (except for connections to local roads) was completed by 2004. Development of the shipping terminal is under way and involves three major proj-ects: the Vallarpadam International Con-tainer Terminal, a liquefied natural gas terminal, and a “Smart City” information technology infrastructure center.

In addition, although the state of Ker-ala is not one of the more industrialized in India, the Cochin area is the site of the state’s largest concentration of

industrial activity, mostly located in the Cochin Special Economic Zone upriver to the north.

Toward the interior are “backwaters”—a place-specific term in this region that describes calm, quiet, largely freshwater areas lying between flat coastal lands and more mountainous areas in the inte-rior of the country. In many cases, these areas are relatively clean and unspoiled and a lure for tourism but are increas-ingly impacted by urban development. Farther inland, the land surface rises to the Western Ghat mountain range, which defines the eastern border between Ker-ala and Tamil Nadu. Exports of spices, nuts, and other products, such as rubber from hill plantations, have been a basis for Cochin’s growth as a port since the twelfth century, along with exports of fibers and other useful products from coconut farming.

SOURCE: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, 2002.

Figure 2. Corporation of Cochin


The area is warm and humid, with two monsoon periods annually, neither as intense as the major summer monsoon on India’s east coast and neither associ-ated historically with disastrous flood-ing or other storm damage. A southwest monsoon, which brings the heaviest rains to the area, occurs in the June–August period, and a northeast monsoon occurs in the September–December period. Total

precipitation is about 3,000 millimeters annually, about two-thirds of that from the southwest monsoon.

At the northern end of the Cochin coastline, the Periyar River opens to the Arabian Sea, one of six rivers discharging into Cochin’s backwaters. Midway in the metropolitan area lies the entrance channel to Cochin’s harbor, which is dredged con-tinuously. About 10 million cubic meters

of sediment are dredged annually from the Cochin port area and dumped offshore or deposited as landfill for shoreline develop-ments. The tidal flux in Cochin’s coastal waters is about one meter, with tidal flows complicated by the areas’s labyrinthine patterns of land and sea (see Figure 2).

The city of Cochin is democratically governed by the Corporation of Cochin: Residents of the city’s 71 wards elect the corporation’s council members, who in turn elect a mayor. The corporation is responsible for local governmental activi-ties including waste management, drainage and canal systems, and sewage treatment. Development in the larger metropolitan area is coordinated by the Greater Cochin

Development Authority (GCDA), which includes the city of Cochin, 10 municipali-ties, 15 blocks, and 6 other local govern-mental units. Also within the metropolitan area are the Cochin Port Trust, which operates the area’s commercial waterways and port facilities; the Goshree Islands Development Authority, which is respon-sible for development planning for 27 islands northwest of the city of Cochin, including development of the new ship-ping terminal; and the headquarters of the Indian Navy in South India.

A number of governmental functions important to urban area management are the responsibility of the state of Kerala rather than the city. Examples

include electric power supply, potable water supply, law and order, traffic, some aspects of taxation, agriculture, fisher-ies, and environmental protection and forest management.

As identified by local leaders, key issues for urban sustainability in the Cochin area related to potential climate change impacts are waste management, drainage, inland waterways and other assets for significant growth in tourism, and land use. Like most other cities, the physical infrastructures of Cochin—trans-portation, sanitation, water, and electric-ity—struggle with complications from urban growth, technological change, and jurisdictional boundaries. For instance, one of Cochin’s problems is potable water supply, a very serious city government concern but a responsibility of the state water authority, which has not kept pace with growning demand. Electricity sup-ply is also a state responsibility. Among municipal responsibilities, infrastructures are particularly inadequate for handling solid and liquid wastes, and environmen-tal pollution is endemic as a result. The city’s extensive network of canals is now largely polluted and encroached upon by urban development. This deterioration of a key historic foundation for the city’s infrastructures, combined with the city’s situation in a flat, low-lying coastal area, contributes to the city’s problems with drainage and waterlogging.

The Questions Asked

Based on available information that was in many cases quite limited, the assessment summarized climate change forecasts for the Cochin area; identified and evaluated vulnerabilities and possible impacts for the area, emphasizing interac-tions between possible climate changes and existing stresses on urban systems; and considered strategies for reducing vulnerabilities that concentrated on reduc-ing stresses on existing systems, therefore making sense for other reasons than cli-mate change alone.

A tugboat passes the low-lying coast in Cochin’s harbor area.

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Climate Change and Cochin

In carrying out an impact assessment of a city, an assessment of long-term (for example, over a 50-year period) impacts of climate change would ideally be asso-ciated with forecasts of economic, demo-graphic, and social change over that same period. Such forecasts are unavailable for Cochin (as for most of the world’s other cities), and a wide variety of other types

of contextual information for the city are also unavailable. Improving informa-tion about economic, environmental, and other conditions and trends would be of significant value to the city as it contem-plates its complex future.

Ideally, it would also be possible to work from relatively detailed projec-tions of climate change for the Cochin area over the next half-century or lon-ger. Some projections of global climate change were available at a large-regional scale;6 they showed expectations of an increase in global average surface tem-peratures of 1.4–5.8oC by 2100, with median projections in the range of an increase in the range of 3oC. Locations nearer the equator and nearer oceans are expected to have temperature increases

less than the global average, which sug-gests that effects of this global change on Cochin would be below the average. But a scenario that paints a picture that Cochin could be warmer in 2050 than at present by several degrees Centigrade is in line with projections by Indian experts of temperature changes in Kerala from climate change.7

Concerns about direct impacts of climate change on Cochin are related

mainly to possible changes in precipita-tion patterns and a rise in sea level, with impacts more likely to emerge gradually over the next half-century than to have major near-term effects. In many cases, they can be related to information about Cochin’s own recent climate history.8

Temperature Changes

Over the past 50 years, Cochin has seen an increase in its mean annual tem-perature of the order of 1oC.9 If this rate of increase were to continue for the next 50 years, the mean annual temperature would be another 1oC warmer than the present. Moreover, the proximity of the city to the sea causes the city’s climate to be affected by the sea surface temperature

(SST). An analysis of long-term time series (1856–2000) of SST anomalies off the Cochin coast shows an increasing temperature over the decades except for negative anomaly periods in the 1950–1959 and 1970–1979 decades. In the case of SST, if the present rate of increase continues, the sea surface off the Cochin coast will be warmer by another 0.5oC by the end of 2050. A small increase in SST is likely to affect the local climate more than the impact of air temperature. It is possible that some of these observed effects are related to observed climate change rather than climate variation from other causes,10 but if climate change were to add another degree or two to Cochin’s average temperature, the total would have a discernable effect on heat indexes in a climate that is already warm and humid.

Precipitation

For Cochin, long-term trends in total annual rainfall show a very slight decreas-ing trend of 8 millimeters per year, although total monsoon rainfall does not show a decreasing trend. More impor-tantly, the average annual number of rainy days in Cochin is 160 days, but over the past 50 years there has been a consider-able decrease in the number of rainy days as a part of the annual rainfall pattern.11 It can be inferred that Cochin is receiving more short spells of intense rainfall than in the past. Projecting changes in rainfall and its variability in the future as a result of global climate change is more complex. No regional models or modeling capa-bilities exist at the present for developing specific scenarios for Kerala or Cochin. Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been used to construct sce-narios for Asia and for South Asia. Also, the United Kingdom’s Hadley Centre, in association with the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi, has developed a first set of estimates of regional climate change within India using a regional cli-mate model (RCM).12 Different models give somewhat different results regarding patterns of total annual rainfall increase

Cochin’s scenic canals add charm to the city, but many are polluted. This young man seems happy enough, but the odor from this canal carries more than three blocks away.

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or decrease. For example, some GCMs show a decrease in annual rainfall in the Kerala region, but predictions of rainfall changes from the Hadley/IIT regional model show a significant increase in total annual rainfall by 2050.13 Most models agree, however, that annual and seasonal rainfall will become more variable and that, in most years, a larger percentage of the rainfall will fall in a smaller number of more intense events.

Sea Level Rise

Although some local informants believe that sea level at high tide is rising in the Cochin area, studies of the pattern of sea level over the period 1949 to 1998 do not

show a significant rise.14 The more seri-ous issue is global projections of climate change, which indicate that the globally averaged sea level is likely to rise sig-nificantly by 2100. Considering results of global and regional analyses, the likeli-hood of sea level rise in the Cochin area in coming decades is very high. Rates of change and the eventual stabilization level are difficult to estimate, but it appears possible that sea level in the Cochin area could rise by as much as 0.2–0.3 meters by 2050. Apparent sea level rise can also be affected by coastal land subsidence or uplifting. Unpublished geological studies indicate some coastal land subsidence in the Cochin area in the past half-century, which could cause the apparent sea level rise to be higher.

Storm Behavior

As indicated above, it is not expected that monsoonal storm behavior in the area of the subcontinent will change in ways that would affect Cochin’s climate sig-nificantly (for example, regarding hazards from severe weather events), apart from precipitation amounts and intensities.

The Cochin Region’s Climate Change Vulnerabilities

Generally, qualitative vulnerabilities to possible impacts (that is, risks of costs or damages) can be assessed with a relative-ly high level of confidence in situations such as these, in contrast to quantitative projections of impacts. In this particular case, each possible direct effect of climate change can be associated with vulner-abilities in Cochin and its surrounding areas (the box on this page outlines these vulnerabilities).

Based on the limited information avail-able about likely climate changes, the most serious types of impact concerns for the Cochin area appear to relate to precipitation amount and intensity and to sea level rise, although other possible impacts deserve attention as well, such

as temperature changes, local ecologi-cal changes, and implications of climate changes in other regions.

Possible Climate Change Impacts on the Cochin Area

Going beyond vulnerabilities to pro-jections of impacts is risky, because so many other driving forces besides climate change alone are likely to shape Cochin’s future.15 For instance, economic and/or demographic changes in the region might accelerate urban growth, and technologi-cal change might provide options for environmental management that are not now available. It is possible, however, to combine the limited available data, judg-ments of local experts, and observations by the assessment team in reviewing current stresses on city systems and pro-cesses and then consider what the impli-cations of forecasted climate changes for these stresses might be.

Related to interests and concerns on the part of local leaders and stakeholders, the assessment considered possible climate change impacts on water systems; drain-age, waterlogging, and flooding; coastal areas, within Cochin itself and in the larger metropolitan area; waste manage-ment; human health; energy supplies; tourism and cultural heritage; fisheries; and implications of climate change in other areas.

Water Systems, Flooding, Waterlogging, and Drainage

Cochin’s drainage problems during the monsoons are well known and are relat-ed to the reduced flow capacity of the increasingly constricted and clogged canal network along with the paving of land sur-faces as urban development proceeds. The canals are a particular concern: silted, pol-luted by solid wastes, seasonally clogged by water hyacinths, and in some cases nar-rowed by encroachments to increase space for buildings and roadways (for example, see the silted canal in the photo on page

Cochin’s vulnerabilities to climate change can be broken into the following five categories:

• vulnerability to precipitation chang-es: water system vulnerabilities if rain-fall becomes more variable, with more rain falling in relatively short, intense events—especially to increased prob-lems with drainage and waste disposal;

• vulnerability to sea-level rise: increased risks of coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion;

• vulnerability to temperature chang-es: likely increased demands for water and electric power;

• vulnerability to combined tem-perature and precipitation changes: increased risks of changes in local human and natural ecologies, with vul-nerabilities for human health and cul-tural heritage preservation and vulner-abilities of fish populations to changes in sea temperatures, chemistry, and/or currents; and

• vulnerability to effects of climate changes in other regions: possibly vul-nerable food supplies, changes in com-petitiveness in regional and international export markets, and possible risks of in-migration of environmental refugees from neighboring parts of India.

COCHIN’S CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES


30). Cochin’s canals receive approximate-ly 30 percent of the city’s liquid wastes, adding to problems of pollution, odor, and exposure of the population to disease from contaminated water and disease vectors such as mosquitoes.

More intensive precipitation events in the area threaten further flooding, waterlog-ging, and drainage and pollution problems associated with the canals. Moreover, sea level rise associated with climate change can be expected to raise the groundwater table within the city area and also to raise tide levels. In addition, the underlying causes of canal pollution and deteriora-tion, including population and economic growth in the absence of effective infra-structures to meet such needs as waste disposal, can be expected to put even more pressure on the canal system as climate change effects emerge. In the absence of improvements in drainage infrastructures, these changes would be likely to affect the habitability of areas of the city that are already subject to waterlogging and flood-ing, including a possible increase in the spread of waterborne diseases.

Coastal Areas within the City of Cochin

The principal projected impacts of cli-mate change on the coastal portions of Cochin are from sea level rise, accompa-nied by increased erosion of shorelines in some areas and the increased incidence of waterlogging and flooding. Because most developed areas along the shoreline are no more than 1 meter above sea level, even a modest rise in sea level could bring some areas under threat of inunda-tion at high tide or during monsoonal storms. Additionally, saltwater intrusion into ground and surface waters would be expected to advance further inland. If this were to result in population relocations, the resulting additional congestion in the higher portions of the central city area would increase stresses on the existing infrastructure.

Beach erosion is another concern, because it already occurs on some of

the sea margins of the mainland due to monsoonal wave action. Projections of more intense precipitation events as cli-mate change occurs would appear likely to be associated with more intense wave activity in some seasons, accelerating the coastal erosion rate, with all effects mag-nified by sea level rise.

Coastal Impacts Elsewhere in the Metropolitan Area

While the main Cochin city area aver-ages only 1.5 meters above mean sea level, some of the surrounding islands are even lower-lying: typically 1.2 to 2.1 meters above nominal sea level. High tide together with the area’s rather mod-est storm surges can exceed 1.2 meters. Even a marginal increase in the sea level, as predicted by climate change projec-tions, could make significant portions of these islands unsuitable for habitation. Moreover, a pattern of rice cultivation and prawn and shrimp farming, which has developed on some of islands over the past 10 years, would in many cases be affected by inundation and salt-water intrusion associated with projected sea level rise. On some of the islands, in fact, the population density is above the state average. If some or a considerable portion of that population were to be forced by sea level rise to leave islands that become uninhabitable or where their livelihoods are no longer viable, the city of Cochin could be faced with an influx of landless poor, increasing crowding and other prob-lems associated with urban growth and a lack of infrastructure within the area of the Cochin Corporation.

The Goshree Islands Development Authority (GIDA) coordinates develop-ment in the larger coastal area, including 27 islands, large and small. The center-piece of GIDA’s ambitious agenda is the Three Bridges Project. Sea level rise could be considered a threat to many of the islands under GIDA’s auspices, plus the major capital infrastructure project. The project was designed to accomodate sea level rise; that is, with bridges and con-

necting roads at a minimum level of 3.0 meters above average sea level (a strik-ingly forward-looking example of climate change adaptation). However, possible impacts on the low-lying islands, espe-cially smaller islands not served by the three bridges, are more problematic, sug-gesting that a significant response likely will be needed if an eventual threat of population displacement is to be reduced.

Waste Management

It is common in Cochin to distinguish between solid waste, such as garbage, and sanitary (liquid) waste. In a city without comprehensive waste disposal infrastruc-tures for either, the stresses of waste disposal on sustainable development are severe.

The city of Cochin generates 350,000–400,000 tons of solid waste per day, with per capita solid waste production of nearly 500 grams. Households and small shops contribute about 67 percent, markets (veg-etable, fruits, and meat) about 10 percent, hospitals and health care establishments another 10 percent, and hotels and restau-rants the remaining 13 percent. The lack of designated waste disposal sites and an inadequate collection and disposal system cause chronic challenges for health, sanita-tion, and environmental degradation.

Possible effects of climate change on rainfall patterns would be expected to cause more serious waterlogging, which promotes the accumulation of wastes in canals for longer durations. This situation already contributes to disease outbreaks, and such impacts might become more frequent and severe. The combination of water stagnation, waste accumulation, and warm temperatures provide an excel-lent breeding ground for disease organ-isms and the disease vectors (mosquitoes, flies, and rodents) that can transmit the diseases to humans. The accumulation of solid wastes in waterlogged areas can also lead to increased leaching of pollut-ants from the wastes into ground water, leading to further pollution of land and water systems.


At present, sanitary waste disposal in Cochin is limited to a small portion of the city (about 20 percent), with only one treatment plant. Many households have their own septic tanks, which are cleaned by the city government on demand. High-rise buildings, including apartments con-structed in recent years, also have their own tanks. Outlets of the septic tank and washing systems are connected directly to the public drains; therefore, perishable and non-perishable elements are being con-stantly introduced into the drains. During periods of waterlogging and flooding, this is of particularly serious concern. Many residents along the sides of the canals use the city’s canals as dumping sinks for sanitary waste. With the changing global climate, Cochin’s existing sanitary waste conditions in combination with saltwater intrusion would be likely to increase their contributions to the continuing degrada-tion of local water systems.

Human Health

Vulnerabilities to health from climate change in Cochin are most likely to be associated with two phenomena: health implications of water system and waste management challenges and possible dan-gers from flooding and other effects of more intense rainfall events. The econom-ically poorest portions of the population are expected to be the most vulnerable. If a greater variability in patterns of rainfall leads to occasional decreases in pota-ble water supplies, while stresses on the city’s water systems lead to an increased concentration of pathogenic organisms in raw water supplies, exposures to disease could increase in Cochin. Moreover, stag-nant wastewater in drains and poorly-draining canals act as breeding grounds for mosquitoes.

Energy Supplies

Electricity generation and distribution are under the management of the state of Kerala rather than the Corporation of Cochin, but Cochin is affected by possible

impacts on the power sector because of possible effects on electricity availabil-ity and cost in the metropolitan area. In Kerala, until 1996, virtually all electric power was generated from hydropower, the least expensive resource and technol-ogy for energy generation of all economi-cally feasible options, especially when compared with thermal power plants. Due to continued development in and around Cochin, the demand for power has been growing exponentially, with demand exceeding production, and the city began

experiencing power shortages. As thermo-electric facilities were added to respond to demand, the share of hydroelectric power decreased from 100 percent in 1976 to 55 percent in 2002, and electricity production costs have risen steadily (more rapidly than electricity prices, which threatens the economic viability of the state utility).

Since Cochin’s electricity costs are affected by the share of power produced from hydroelectric facilities, and the state has further potentials for hydroelectric power generation, climate change could have implications for the power sector. Any decrease in rainfall could affect hydro-power generation potential, and a sig-nificant increase in annual variability could

make hydropower supply less reliable. In addition, a temperature increase would widen the gap between supply and demand because of the increased demand for power for air conditioning and refrigeration in the working and living environments.

Tourism and Cultural Heritage

Cochin has a proud cultural heritage and a timeless tradition. Its many centuries of trade and cultural contacts with the rest of the world, its pre-colonial roots, and its

diverse colonial experiences have added to structures and artifacts rooted in Kerala’s own cultural history a unique range of architecture and historic sites. In addition, the backwater area is a world-class tourist attraction, and the water-based landscape of the harbor and port areas make Cochin a very special experience.

Cochin’s urban heritage was, until recently, environmentally friendly. Monu-ments and cultural environments, howev-er, are non-renewable resources, and their management must be based on long-term perspective to be conserved as the area’s cultural heritage. It is this realization that led Cochin Corporation to establish a Center for Studies in Culture and Heritage

Management of Cochin’s canal system, which is largely polluted and encroached upon by urban development, is a significant concern.

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of Cochin, charged with protecting and preserving the city’s cultural heritage. Among its interests is restoring Cochin’s canal system to a clean, attractive, multiple-use asset for the city.

Since many of the historic structures of Cochin are located in low-lying areas, any sea level rise related to global warm-ing could have a direct impact on cul-tural heritage protection. In addition, the degradation of historic structures would be accelerated by increased tempera-tures and precipitation (and possibly by poor surface drainage and waterlogging), proposed beach developments would be threatened by beach erosion, and canal restoration could be challenged by rainfall changes and sea level rise.

Fisheries

Fisheries are an important sector of the Kerala economy in general and Cochin’s economy in particular. Fish and fishery products account for one-fourth of total export earnings in Kerala, although its share of India’s commercial fishing has declined since the mid-1960s. Recent trends show a steady decrease in the percentage contribution of pelagic (shal-lower water rather than deep-sea) fishes, mainly because of improvements in ves-sels for deep-sea fishing. A combination of temperature and sea level increases, precipitation changes, and the associated changes in water chemistry could signifi-cantly affect the population dynamics of aquatic and marine species, and shifts in habitat availability and migration patterns could significantly affect the productiv-ity of commercial and sport fishery. It is possible that an increase in sea surface temperature would have an impact on the production and migration of fish popula-tions, especially pelagic fishes, which in turn would affect the area’s economy.

Climate Change in Other Regions

Climate change on a global scale is expected to bring about substantial chang-

es in the growing season and agricultural practices in many regions of India and the world. On a regional basis, these changes could be extensive, depending, for exam-ple, on the frequency and quantity of rainfall. On the Indian subcontinent, parts of the interior are expected to receive reduced rainfall, while some coastal areas are expected to experience more intense monsoon rains over shorter periods of time. Such changes may impact tradi-tional commercial practices by affecting the availability of foods and other agri-cultural products. As Cochin relies large-ly on imports of such materials from surrounding regions, it might be antici-pated that the availability of traditional foods, textiles, and rubber products could be affected.

Perhaps more significant, if increased drought events in the interior of India were to occur, a result might be increased migration of populations currently inhab-iting these areas toward the coast. Cochin would most likely be viewed as a prime migration destination. Such a sequence of events would place increasing stress on the already overloaded infrastructure of Cochin, including solid and liquid waste management, canal and drainage prob-lems, and potable water.

In addition, Cochin’s economy depends on its competitiveness in a number of global markets. Climate changes in other regions that are Cochin’s competitors or markets could affect its economy in either negative or positive ways.

Conclusions

Although many possible effects can be catalogued, the general finding of the assessment is that climate change alone is not necessarily a major threat to Cochin, depending on how the city responds. It is one of many factors in considering future development paths for the city and met-ropolitan area, and its main significance is in adding to stresses that already exist. On the other hand, some of these added pressures could become problematic for

the city in the longer run unless steps are taken to increase the city’s resilience in these regards. Two impact concerns are clearly significant for Cochin, along with several other possibly significant con-cerns that deserve further attention and a number of additional concerns that may call for attention in the long run, depend-ing on the area’s emerging experience with climate change and its impacts. In all cases, adaptive responses by Cochin, in collaboration with a variety of partners, can improve the area’s resilience and, in important ways, demonstrate leader-ship in climate change–related responses among cities in the developing world.

Significant Impact Concerns

The Cochin area’s most significant vul-nerabilities to climate change impacts in the long run are:

• Possible impacts of a combination of increased variability and intensity of rain-fall and sea level rise on Cochin’s water systems. This is particularly true in terms of impacts on drainage, waste disposal, and waterlogging. Unless action is taken to increase the effectiveness of Cochin’s water and waste disposal systems, espe-cially its canal network, climate change is likely in the longer run to significantly increase the city’s problems with envi-ronmental pollution, waterlogging, and flooding. This, in turn, has the potential to undermine the area’s attractiveness as a healthy place to live, a pleasant place to do business, and a desirable place for tourists to visit. It appears that such adaptation actions, which offer substan-tial co-benefits for the city’s sustainable development, can significantly reduce vulnerabilities of the water systems to long-term climate changes.

• Possible impacts of sea level rise on land uses at the coastal margin. Unless action is taken to respond to the likelihood that sea level rise may threaten land uses at or near the shore line, climate change is likely to threaten some coastal land uses and patterns of livelihoods. The challenge appears to be especially significant for


some low-lying backwater islands under the jurisdiction of the Goshree Islands Authority, where even a modest sea level rise—with associated flooding, waterlog-ging, and groundwater salination—could threaten current ways of life. If some of the currently inhabited islands were to become uninhabitable, the displaced population would be expected to move to other parts of the Cochin area, possibly without homes or jobs, which would present a different kind of urban management problem. This impact concern can be reduced through certain possible adaptation actions (which are listed the box on this page), but only if the sea level rise is moderate rather than massive. In other words, in this impact connection, climate change mitigation actions at a global scale are an essential part of an effective response, along with selected adaptation actions.

Possibly Significant Impact Concerns

Several other types of climate change impacts could also be significant for Cochin, although currently available information is insufficient to support an assessment of the appropriate level of concern. These concerns include:

• Possible impacts of climate change on human health. If temperatures increase, precipitation patterns change, and/or such secondary effects as increased waterlog-ging or waste disposal problems emerge, it is possible that the Cochin area could be exposed to more or different pests, disease vectors, and diseases. If this dan-ger is significant, actions to strengthen the city’s public health system would be desirable.

• Possible impacts of climate change on the Cochin area’s fisheries industry. If seawater in the Cochin area warms with global climate change, it is possible that fish populations in the shallower waters could be adversely affected and that this sector of the area’s economy would be impacted. If this danger is significant, as in the case of the Goshree Islands, global climate change mitigation and local

adaptations (from changing fishing pat-terns to fish species development) would be desirable.

• Possible impacts on Cochin’s cul-tural heritage. Any or all of the increased stresses that may be associated with climate change could have undesirable impacts on cultural heritage preserva-tion—from accelerated deterioration of historic structures; to accelerated loss of historic landscapes, including aspects of the backwater areas; to reduced touristic interest due to inadequate waste disposal systems. Combined with other types of economic, environmental, and technolog-ical change over the coming decades, cli-mate change could add to the substantial challenges of realizing Cochin’s visions as a special cultural heritage area.

• Possible impacts on Cochin from climate changes in other regions. It would be desirable for Cochin to become better informed about possible effects on its society and economy from climate chang-es elsewhere, from the agricultural areas inland in Kerala whose production might be impacted by changes in precipitation patterns to the potential for in-migration by environmental refugees from drought-stricken interior regions. This possible danger calls for long-term contingency planning based on improved sources of information.

Other Impact Concerns

A host of additional possible impacts might be of concern in the Cochin area and should at least be included in enhanc-ing public awareness of climate change and associated impact issues for the area. One example is increased variability in hydropower production and associated variabilities and possible increases in electricity costs for Cochin metropolitan governments and their citizens.

Potentials for Effective Responses

None of these possible impacts is an enormous threat to Cochin’s future

(barring improbable but possible abrupt changes in the global climate), but a num-ber of actions to reduce current stresses and improve systems for monitoring envi-ronmental change could help to meet current urban development needs and also strengthen Cochin’s ability to handle longer-term challenges. Many of these actions would be relatively expensive, involving substantial investments in capi-tal infrastructure, such as a major canal restoration project, but it is conceivable that a climate change adaptation connec-tion could improve prospects for finding development-oriented financing. The fol-lowing preliminary steps were identified as actions that would be likely to lead to further steps that could add up to a truly historic program of action for the Cochin area, making it a model of climate change response combined with contemporary sustainable development.

Developed in consultation with local leaders, the recommended actions involved climate change adaptation, cli-mate change mitigation, and information

Although it may not be financially feasible for every island, some islands could be protected by a combination of bund (sea-wall) construction, water pumping to reduce waterlogging, raising levels of roads, and possibly raising land property and/or reclaiming low-lying land areas by utilizing dredged materials from the harbor and port. Since the time horizon for dealing with this problem is relatively long—a matter of decades—it may be possible to undertake targeted technology developments and applica-tions as well. For instance, an affordable solar-powered water-pumping technol-ogy, combined with an affordable solar-powered water-purification technology, could link essential water pumping with a highly desirable source of potable water under local control.

ADAPTATION POTENTIALS

FOR LOW-LYING COASTAL ISLANDS


and capacity building to support local climate change responses.

In terms of adaptation, the following were recommended:

• identify and implement effective waste disposal infrastructures and poli-cies for solid and sanitary wastes;

• restore the city’s canal system to a level where major canals are clean and suitable for multiple uses and other canals are effective in assuring drainage of the metropolitan area;

• stabilize the coastal margin of the city so that erosion does not threaten land uses and historical, cultural, and aesthetic assets; and

• explore, test, and demonstrate approaches for protecting low-lying coastal islands from sea level rise.

In terms of mitigation, the following actions were recommended:

• take steps to implement a program of cost-saving energy efficiency improve-ments, emphasizing municipal facilities, vehicle fleets, and street lighting to reduce impacts of possible future energy price increases and make more electricity avail-able to other consumers in the metropoli-tan area; and

• become a member of the interna-tional Cities for Climate Change program to join with other cities around the world in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting other climate change mitiga-tion initiatives.

In terms of information and capacity building, the following actions were rec-ommended:

• build local capacities for monitor-ing and analyzing climate variation and change, including relevant expertise, pro-grams and training at the Cochin Univer-sity of Science and Technology (CUSAT); and

• improve information to inform deci-sionmaking and project development, emphasizing certain high-priority needs and certain types of impact concerns that could emerge as significant as they come to be better understood. High- priority needs include improved data on drainage problems, including flooding

and waterlogging and improved data on climate variation and change at a rela-tively detailed scale in the Cochin area to clarify impact issues, track changes over the coming decades, and provide early warning about any changes that might cause specific problems for the area.

Outcomes of the Assessment

Progress with development is seldom rapid, even in relatively progressive loca-tions. While the recommendations have had some effect in the years since the assessment was completed—for example, on efforts to develop a canal restoration effort and to expand local capacities—Cochin has not been changed dramati-cally by the fact that the assessment was done, although continued slow progress is likely.

At least as important globally is this demonstration that vulnerabilities to cli-mate change impacts in developing coun-try cities can be assessed right now, in partnership with local experts, even with only limited climate change projections and data on potentially impacted areas and sectors, and such assessments can produce recommendations for action that imbed local climate change responses in the mainstream of sustainable develop-ment pathways. This should encourage further assessments as scientists and poli-cymakers become more aware of poten-tial risks of climate change impacts in especially vulnerable parts of the devel-oping world.

Thomas J. Wilbanks is a corporate research fellow at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), where he conducts research on issues related to sustainable development, responses to climate change, clean energy futures, and the role of geographic scale in all of these regards. He is a coordinating lead author of Chapter 7, “Industry, Settlement, and Society,” of IPCC Working Group II’s Fourth Assessment Report and the chapter on human settlements of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s report on Analysis of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health, Welfare, and Human Systems, both being completed in 2007. Recent co-edited books include Global Change and Local Places (Cambridge University Press, 2003) and Bridging Scales and Knowledge Systems (Island Press, 2006). He is a contributing editor of Environment. He can be reached

at [email protected]. J. Timothy Ensminger is retired from the Environmental Sciences Division at ORNL after a distinguished career as a specialist in environmen-tal impact assessment. C. K. Rajan is a professor at and chair of the Department of Meteorology at the Cochin University of Science and Technology He can be reached at [email protected] or [email protected].

NOTES

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming), Table 7.1.

2. U.S. National Research Council, Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability (Washing-ton, DC: National Academy Press, 1999).

3. S. Huq, S. Kovats, H. Reid, and D. Satterthwaite, eds. “Reducing Risks to Cities from Disasters and Cli-mate Change,” Environment and Urbanization 19, no. 1, special issue (2007): 3–15.

4. IPCC, note 1 above, chapter 7.

5. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), “Possible Vulnerabilities of Cochin, India to Climate Change Impacts and Response Strategies to Increase Resilience,” (Oak Ridge, TN, and Cochin, India: ORNL and CUSAT, 2003). This report is the basis for all state-ments of fact for this article that are not otherwise refer-enced, and it acknowledges a host of local partners who made the assessment possible.

6. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univer-sity Press, 2001).

7. For example, M. Lal, Global Climate Change: India’s Monsoon and Its Variability (Boulder, CO: Stra-tus Consulting, Inc., for the U.S. Environmental Protec-tion Agency, 2002).

8. ORNL and CUSAT, note 5 above.

9. CUSAT, work in progress.


11. CUSAT, note 9 above.

12. M. Lal, note 7 above.

13. ORNL and CUSAT, note 5 above.

14. P. K. Dinesh Kumar, “Monthly Mean Sea Level Variations at Cochin, “ International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sources, 27 (2001): 209–14.


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