waterfowl and climate change: issues and implications sonja m. smith
TRANSCRIPT
Waterfowl and Climate Change:Issues and Implications
Sonja M. Smith
The Nature of the Problem• Increasing atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (CO2)…
The Nature of the Problem
• Rising global temperatures…
The Nature of the Problem
• Changing precipitation patterns…
The Nature of the Problem
• Rising sea levels,• Mounting climactic variability,• And, more (often) extreme climactic events…
The Nature of the Problem
• Anthropogenic land cover change further confounds the issue…
Morenci Mine, Morenci, AZ
Johannesburg, South Africa
Climate Change and Wetlands…• Important breeding grounds• Congregation sites throughout the year/migration• Important winter habitat• Biodiversity hotspots in arid regions
Basque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, NM
Waterfowl• Provide important ecosystem goods, annually:
– 12 million hunting days– 46 million birders
• Integral component of natural ecosystems• Critical role in wildlife policy development
– National Wildlife Refuge System
Waterfowl and Climate Change• Coastal/Inland wetland habitat loss
– Breeding grounds– Migration corridors (flyways)– Stopover sites
• Timing/distance travelled during migration
Strong relationship between waterfowl & water conditions
The Migratory Flyways
• 1) Pacific• 2) Central• 3) Mississippi• 4) Atlantic
12
3
4
Pacific Flyway• Habitat loss from rising sea
levels/encroaching development
• ↓ snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt = ↓ summer water– 10-30 days earlier– 11% decrease in snowpack– Cascades: 30-60% decline in
snowmelt-derived water
Central Flyway• Water regulation/diversion (dams)
– Reduction in open channels/marshes– Sandhill Cranes, Whooping Cranes
• ↓ snowpack/higher temperatures– Limited water availability for humans/other species
• The Prairie Pothole Region
Mississippi Flyway
• Water/shoreline habitat loss in Great Lakes…– 19-39% decline in duck numbers
• Drop in water levels (up to 2.4’)– Decline in SAV
• Increasing contaminant levels• Gulf Coast sea-level rise 45%
coastal habitat loss• Canvasbacks, Redheads, Lesser
Scaup
Atlantic Flyway
• Sea-level rise (up to 15”) confounded by development
• Canvasback, American Black
Duck, Northern Pintail, American Wigeon, Greater & Lesser Scaup, Ring-necked Duck, Green-winged Teal, Mottled Duck, Wood Duck, Fulvous Whistling Duck, Tundra Swan
Chesapeake Bay• One of the top wintering waterfowl areas in
N. America– >1 million waterfowl
• Exacerbation of pollution effects
• Decline in SAV– Degradation in water quality– Warming temperatures– Increasing human population
• Area already abandoned by Northern Pintail, Redhead, American Wigeon
North America’s duck factory
Prairie Pothole Region
PacificFlyway
CentralFlyway
MississippiFlyway
• 10% breeding habitat• Produces 50-80% N.
America’s ducks• >75% harvested ducks
Climate Projections
• Palmer draught severity index (PDSI)– GCMs and sensitivity simulations to predict
habitat conditions/project future duck numbers
• Correlation between:– pond numbers and PDSI– breeding duck numbers and PDSI
• 2020s: mild drought, PDSI = -1.41– May pond numbers decline by 23%– Duck population decline by 26%
Climate Change and the PPR
Climate Change and the PPR
• 2050s: moderate drought, PDSI = -2.59– May Pond numbers decrease by 38%– Duck population decline by 46%
Northern forest/tundra (CAN and AK)• 20% N. American breeding waterfowl• Wintering habitat for 50% Pacific Flyway birds• Arctic region is the fastest warming• Loss of important tundra habitat• Lesser Scaup, Surf Scoter, White-winged Scoter
Migration
• Species expected to skirt their ranges northwards and eastwards
• Shift in wintering areas– i.e., Lithuania Mallards
• Shortening migration routes
• Take-off/Arrival times noticeably earlier
Effects on waterfowl
• Decrease breeding frequency• Reduce clutch sizes• Shorten breeding season• Decrease re-nesting frequency• Decrease nest success• Lower brood survival• Lower recruitment + constant mortality =
declining populations
Management Implications• Climate change is detracting
for many waterfowl species, but…
• Habitat loss/other related anthropogenic effects on the environment confound this!
• Repercussions of habitat loss and climate change may be mitigated by the distribution of remaining habitat …
Management Implications
• YOU as future managers:• Predict areas important
for waterfowl in the future
• Set aside larger areas, buffering zones
• YOU as citizens, hunters, bird-watchers…
Ducks Unlimited• Grassroots, volunteer-based organization• Conserves, restores, and manages wetlands and
associated habitats for N. America’s waterfowl• 792,638 members (as of 1 January 2008)• 12,283,871 acres since 1937• $2.70 billion since 1937• http://www.ducks.org/conservation/
Ducks Unlimited
Acknowledgements
• Dr. Bill Mannan• Geoffrey Palmer• Clay Bowers
Questions?