WBCSD EEB PROJECT

Challenges Towards Achieving a Zero Net Energy Building Sector

William Sisson, UTC, WBCSD EEB Co-chair

Lafarge Briefing

November, 2008

WBCSD EEB Project

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Energy efficiency first

From the business voice

Launch and lead sector transformation

“Sustainable” buildings (TBL)

Communicate openly with markets

A world where buildings consume zero net energy

Challenge 1

3

91%Amount of energy wasted from source to useful work?

Challenge 2

4

94%Amount of energy reduction needed in new buildings to maintain 2002 current carbon levels?

Challenge 3

5

54%Amount of energy reduction needed in all buildings to maintain 2002 current carbon levels?

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Policy as a supportive framework

EEB’s Three Levers

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CEO Expectations

The goal is the first quantitative look ever at what may be accomplished economically to reduce energy demand and CO2 …

We expect a persuasive result.

Global Scenarios

Stakeholders & Behavior

Diverse Participants

Know-how & Commitment

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Policy and Sector Complexities

Source: McKinsey, Dec. 2007; Reducing US Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How much and at what cost?

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

30

0

-30

-60

-90

$ / ton CO2

PotentialGigatons C02

Residential Electronics

Residential Lighting

Commercial CHP

Residential Hot Water

Commercial Building Controls

Residential Envelope Retrofits

Industry CHP

Biofuels

Residential Envelope New Construction

Commercial CFL Lighting

Commercial LED Lighting

Commercial Electronics

Commercial Envelope New Construction

Net Negative Cost

Abatement Options• Will they be adopted?• At what cost?• Over what time horizon?• How do they interact?• Resulting impact?• How to incentivize?

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We Need a Model!

That gives us the ability to assess …

What solutions will key stakeholders (i.e. decision makers) adopt?

What is the submarket energy and emission impact of adopted technologies?

How will various policy actions affect stakeholder selections?

How will potential scenarios and exogenous factors affect stakeholder decisions?

The WBCSD model evaluates energy and CO2 emissions in the context of adoption characteristics and building system interactions

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Model Characteristics

INPUT OUTPUTCALCULATION

Decision,Diffusion

AndStock Model

eQuest/DOE2(Energy Balance)

CO2 Generation

Stock Energy Usage

Cost to Owners

Cost to Gov’t

Construction Options

User Behaviors

Decision Variables

Exogenous Variables

Strategies (Policies)

Data on energy usage and decision criteria, combined with policy actions that may affect stakeholder decisions

Calculations determine preferred options and how

they would be adopted

Output allows comparison of overall impact and cost incurred

by critical stakeholders from 2005 to 2050 time horizon

Policies and Submarkets

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Homes, Europe, Cold, Low CO2 Grid

Homes, US, Warm, High CO2 Grid

Office, Japan, Warm, Modest CO2 Grid

Low Growth High Growth No Growth

Coming soon: Developing markets, retail sectors, …

Heating

Lighting

Cooking

Hot Water

Appliances

Plug Loads

CoolingVentilation

Initial Findings …

-20%-10%

0%10%20%

30%40%

50%60%70%

80%90%

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000

Total Implementation Cost

Increased Policy/Technology Aggressiveness

Low Cost, Marginal or Negative Impact

High Cost, High Impact

INCREASING COSTS

Per

bui

ldin

g C

O2

Red

uctio

n fr

om

2005

bas

elin

e

14Ref: Residential Home, Cold climate in low carbon grid (EU)

Policy Strategy and Technology Interactions

Policies and Time Horizons

Don’t bring about market adoption of more effective options

Heating

Lighting

Cooking

Hot Water

Appliances

Plug Loads

No incentives

Unaided adoption

< 5yr payback horizon

Incentives

< 5yr payback horizon

CO2

15Ref: Residential, Cold climate in low carbon grid (FR)

Financial Considerations

5 year investment horizon 4x Energy Price

Heating

Lighting

Cooking

Hot Water

Appliances

Plug Loads

CO2

Seg

men

t Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n, k

Wh/

yrS

egm

ent C

O2

emis

sion

s, tC

O2/

yr

Ref: Residential, Cold climate in low carbon grid (FR)

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Labeling, Fees, and Incentives

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Heating

Cooling

Cooking

Hot Water

Appliances

Plug Loads

CO2

Ventilation

Lighting

Utility Rate “Carbon” Fees Could Offset Incentive Costs

Effect of incentives on A & B and disincentives on E-G

Adoption Policies

Label Based Policies

WBCSD EEB Project

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Stakeholder perceptions

Differing scenarios playing out

Submarket decision modeling – more action is needed

Is the good news real?

Manifesto coming

A world where buildings consume zero net energy

Project Timeline

2006 2007 2008

Formally Announce Project (Beijing)

2009

“Setting Direction” Report

“Facts & Trends” Report

Assurance Group

Assurance Group

Assurance Group

Manifesto

Final Report (Action Plan)

Qualitative & Quantitative Assessments Recommendations to

Transform Building Sector

Setting DirectionSetting Direction

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http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/energy/cwp/view.asp?a=1532&q=539829&energyNav=|

Public comment until November 10!