weather & climate: volatility or change in the air?weather & climate volatility or change in...

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WEATHER & CLIMATEVOLATILITY OR CHANGE IN THE AIR?July 19, 2019

Joshua Darr, MS CCRA

Senior Vice President & Meteorologist

MASC Annual Meeting, Greenville, SC

© 2019 Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC Weather & Climate: Volatility or Change in the Air?

Volatility or Change in the Air?Agenda

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What are the latest scientific views on changing weather patterns?

How does the changing weather patterns impact the frequency and severity of North American catastrophe events, specifically in South Carolina?

What the future resemble the past? What can we do about it?


Weather VolatilityWhy is it Important to Stay in Tune with the Latest Science?

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Source: 2018 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report

Increasing acknowledgement by many policy groups that we are witnessing an

increase in cat events and extreme weather globally

The information provided here is for informational and educational purposes and current as of the date of publication. The information is not a substitute for legal advice and does not necessarily reflect the opinion or policy position of the Municipal Association of South Carolina. Consult your attorney for advice concerning specific situations.

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Global Insured Catastrophe Losses1970 - 2018

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Source: Guy Carpenter, Swiss Re, includes NFIP insured losses

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© 2019 Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC Weather & Climate: Volatility or Change in the Air? 5

Global Temperatures Since 1980Natural Cycles being Disrupted? The Disputed Pause of the 2000s

Source: NASA GISS

Baseline temperatures: 1951-1980

Year

Glo

ba

l Te

mp

era

ture

An

om

aly

Global Ocean-Land Surface Temperature (C)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Annual Mean 5 Year Running Average

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The 2016 Mega El NiñoRecord Intensity

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El Niño Events Naturally Warm the GlobeWarmth Released from Ocean to Atmosphere

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Comparing Most Recent Mega El Niño Events

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Meaningful Shift in Region of most Prominent Warming

El Niño events

tend to propel

natural warming of

the globe

Most of the mega

2016 El Niño

warming was

focused in the

Arctic

Winter

temperatures were

8-15C (15-28F)

warmer than

average at peak

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The Acceleration of Arctic Sea Ice LossOutsized Impact on Temperatures as Ice Shifts to Open Waters

• Impact on arctic temperatures due to more ocean

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Less Ice = Dramatic Warming Across the Arctic

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Autumn Arctic Temperatures since 1950


The Jet StreamMeasuring the Strength of Temperature Contrast

NASA

Video link

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3864

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Tale of Two Springs!Comparing April 2017 to April 2018

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Tale of Two WintersComparing February 2015 to 2017

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The January 4-5, 2018 SuperbombSevere cold outbreak, intense nor’easter storm

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- Seeing extremes shifts in the weather

pattern, from extreme cold/snow to

extreme warm within seasons.

- Can stress aging infrastructure

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Current Climate Change UnderstandingStacking Weather Perils Side by Side

• Is there a way to link a

changing climate to any

individual catastrophe peril

event?

• Science evolving rapidly in

this field

• Highest confidence in link to

precipitation events

• Least confidence in

thunderstorm and winter

events

2014 National Academy of SciencesClimate Change: Evidence & Causes



Atmospheric RiversThe Moisture Freeway from the Tropics to Mid-latitudes

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As the atmosphere warms, the ability to transport higher amounts of moisture from the

tropics to the mid-latitudes increases roughly 7% for 1 degree C.

• Narrow, moisture laden corridors in the atmosphere

• A ‘freeway’ of moisture rich air that connects the tropics to the mid-latitudes

• Advances in satellite technology over the past 20 years have brought AR detection from research to operations

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Atmospheric Rivers in South Carolina2015, Joaquin, and an autumn cutoff low pressure system

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October 3-8, 2015

– 26” max rainfall total

– 23” falling in

Charleston,

– 4-10 inch range

occurring over much of

the mid-Atlantic

Impacts– Long lived power

outages, in part due to

flooded infrastructure and

downed trees

- PCS estimated damages

in excess of $352M, with

70% of losses occurring

in South CarolinaTop: Water Vapor & Radar Loop (CIMSS)

Bottom: Total Radar Rainfall (NWS)

L


Extreme Rainfall EventsA Double Whammy: More Frequent and Severe

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Extreme One-Day Precipitation Events in the Contiguous 48 States (NOAA)

Change in amount of precipitation falling in heaviest 1% of all daily events

(NCDC / Climate Central)

2016 featured 19 separate floods the US, the most since records began in 18802017 continued the deluge with Hurricane Harvey in Houston; 2018 brought Lane to Hawaii, Florence to Carolinas, record setting Mid-Atlantic2019 off to fast start with record floods in central US


South Carolina PrecipitationOn average 6-7” higher since early 20th century

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5” wetter per year now than

average of late 1800s

Above average years in early 1900s

comparable to

below average years

in 2000s

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

1895

1905

1915

1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

Avera

ge P

recip

itati

on

(in

ch

es)

South Carolina Annual Precipitation (inches)

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South Carolina TemperaturesOn average 3°F warmer than early 20th century

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1.8°rise in

temperatures equates to

7% more vapor being able

to be held in atmosphere

Last 10 years average

~2.0°F warmer

than turn of the 20th

century

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

1895

1905

1915

1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

Av

era

ge

Te

mp

era

ture

(°

F)

South Carolina Annual Tempeartures (°F)


Last 12 months record wettest across eastern USSouth Carolina registered wettest year on record

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2018 and FlorenceVery warm oceans, low wind shear, Arctic influence

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Collapse from category 4 to 1 just before landfall resulted in major storm surge into coastal Carolinas

Category 1 Hurricane Florence of 2018The Harvey of the Carolinas, 3rd wettest hurricane on record

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All-time North Carolina rainfall record for a tropical cyclone with 35 inches of rain in North Carolina and 23 inches in South Carolina, becoming the third and fourth states to break all-time hurricane rainfall records since 2017 for the contiguous U.S.


Joaquin, Florence, Harvey, Stalling HurricanesWhat is influencing extreme rain events from hurricanes?

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Stalled jet stream patterns • Increase in ‘blocking high pressure

systems’ over northern latitudes

• Increased potential to stall tropical

systems or steer further west

• Possible link due to summer

warming of mid-latitudes and Arctic

• Indication that Sandy-like systems

could be higher likelihood in the

future

Mann et. al, Nature 2017

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Source: Climate Reanalyzer

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Repeat seasons of intense US landfalling hurricanesVerifying climate research or just filling in the gaps?

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Emanuel et. al PNAS 2017

Future Climate Expectations

Climate and hurricane research expects increasing frequency of more

rapid intensification of

hurricanes

Harvey, Irma, Maria, Jose, Florence and

Michael all underwent 45-65

mph increase in 24 hours

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

70 90 110 130 150 170 190

Ce

ntr

al p

res

su

re a

t la

nd

fall

(m

illi

ba

rs)

Maximum sustained speed at landfall (mph)

1851-2016 US landfalls

Labor Day

1935

Andrew

Camille

Cat 5Cat 4

Maria

Harvey

Irma

Katrina

Rita

Wilma

Michael

Florence


Warming trend in October oceansExtends Late Season Hurricane Potential

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20

21

22

23

24

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Sea Surface Temperature (°C)

30-42N

27.4

27.9

28.4

28.9

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Sea Surface Temperature (°C)

15-30N

SST source data: NOAA/ESRL

Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesOctober 31, 2018


EXERCISING RESILIENCY: WAYS TO STRETCH, FLEX & BOUNCE(BACK) WHEN ADVERSITY STRIKES!

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Increasing Company StrengthLeveraging Analytics to Make Objective Assessment

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Outsized loss to expectations

Risk differentiation

Exercising ResiliencyLeveraging cat experience to

propel financial stability via analytical solutions

Efficient claims response


Risk DifferentiationObjective Analytics Driven by Insurtech Solutions

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In addition to all exposure and cat model solutions, a host of companies and

insurance providers can provide hazard risk scores for a whole host of perils


Exercising ResiliencyLoss Mitigation and Resiliency Defined

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LOSS MITIGATION

“the act of making a condition or

consequence less severe.”

RESILIENCY

“the power or ability to return to the

original form; ability to recover

readily from adversity or the

like, buoyancy.”

ACCEPT

TRANSFER

MITIGATE

AVOID

YES

NO

RISK

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Exercising ResiliencyFour Main Focal Areas

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COASTAL RESILIENCY /

FLOOD

NEIGHBORHOODS

BUILDING

INFRASTRUCTURE


Where will mitigation be best served?Different costs for different flood defenses

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Risk level differentiationHow much mitigation is necessary?

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Outsized Loss to ExpectationsExtreme Power Outages more Prevalent

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Million customer-hours impacted; largest blackouts in US history

483

515

568

592

681

683

700

753

775

850

1,050

3,228

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Irene (2011)

Wilma (2005)

Florence (2018)

Northeast Blackout (2003)

Katrina (2005)

Ike (2008)

Hugo (1989)

Irma (2017)

Sandy (2012)

Michael (2018)

Georges (1998)

Maria (2017)

Millions of hours of customer power outages

US Total 2012-2016

3,400M hours


Flood Barrier ControlAutomated Equipment to Protect Critical Assets

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Loss Mitigation Improving ResiliencyPre/During Event Strategies

• Data and Functionality

• Allows claims manager to identify policyholders impacted by events

Claims

• Dashboard view

• Provides loss estimates based on event and nearby locations

Peril Impact• Automated email

• Issues notification up to 3x per day if there is loss potential over specified thresholdLoss

Notification

Cost vs. Investment

Protect, Elevate, Move out of harm’s way

$1 of investment save $6 of loss, $105 in hurricane regions

$Applying resiliency efforts in underwriting & engineering

Research & Development, Education, Implementation

CATography Predictive Analytics

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Weather & Climate PatternsIncreasing Volatility or Fundamental Changes?

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Man made or natural climate variability?

Is the weather getting worse?

No. However, it’s getting more

volatile

Why is weather getting more volatile?

Warmer Arctic as well as mid-latitudes linked

to stickier weather patterns, causing longer

regimes with embedded extremes

Can we say anything about the future?

Arctic ice loss expected to continue, no sign of

going back to historical normals

What can be done to manage the volatility?

Insurance protection, real time monitoring &

catastrophe modeling, resiliency efforts

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% O

hio

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y U

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tre

me

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Southeast USClimate Extremes Index

CEI 5 per. Mov. Avg. (CEI)

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