+

Renewable

Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin America: the market, technologies and outlook

Gilberto M Jannuzzi

+Report

“Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin

America: the market, technologies and outlook - 2010”

Team:Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi University of Campinas – UNICAMP and International Energy Initiative – IEI, BrazilOdón de Buen Rodríguez Energía, Tecnología y Educación, S.C. –ENTE, S.C., MexicoJoão Gorenstein Dedecca International Energy Initiative – IEI, BrazilLarissa Gonçalves Nogueira International Energy Initiative – IEI, BrazilRodolfo Dourado Maia Gomes International Energy Initiative –IEI, BrazilJudith Navarro Energía, Tecnología y Educación, S.C. – ENTE, S.C., Mexico

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3

+Objective and Characteristics of the study

Objective: provide a picture of the current status and near future development of renewable energy technologies in LA countries

Markets up to 2020 (official projections), regulations, stakeholders

Countries: Argentina, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and Mexico

Sources/technologies: SHP (<20 MW), wind, biomass, solar PV, geothermal

Information: Survey the existing public available literature, official documents and reports

Personal contacts

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+Structure of presentation

Current picture

Trends & Drivers

Policies & Regulation

Stakeholders

Most promissing technologies/countries

Conclusions

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+Current

situation:

Renewable

Electricity

(RE)

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+RE: good

potential

in LA

Table 3: Estimated potential of alternative sources for electricity generation 

Solar PV (kWh/m2.year) Wind energy (MW) SHP (MW) Geothermal (MW) Biomass (MW)

Argentina 1800 5000 425-480 150-2000 430

Brazil 1095-2372.5 >250000 25913 360-3000 265401

Chile 663.5-2555 6000-10,000 2600 3500-7000 1000

Peru 1900-2500; 1800 2500 1000 1000-2990 1782

Colombia 1800 21000 25000 552 47

Venezuela 1606-2445.5 45195 15000 910 340

Mexico 1640-2370 40000 32503 6500-8000 800

Central America 1725-2175 400 – 600 W/m2(4) 180003 24400-31500 635

But today represents 2-5% of the existing capacity

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+Renewable electricity: installed capacity (2009)

Note: Large Hydro plants not included!

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+RE installed capacity: contribution by country

5%7%

71%

2% 4%

9%

2%0%

Central America

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Venezuela

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+Summary: RE in Latin America

The energy sources considered represent 2,5% to 5% of total installed capacity in the examined countries.

Biomass represents 50% of the total energy generated by RE.

All researched countries have plans to expand production of electricity from alternative sources considered.

Brazil and Peru have about 5% of its capacity attended by RE, Argentina and Colombia have about 4%, Mexico and Chile are 2.5%.

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+Drivers

for expansion: RE in

Latin

America

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+Driving forces for RE expansion in LA

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The analysis shows that in most countries the issues below have been important factors to support the policies of RE :

Local Policies drivers13

+Policies, Stakeholders, Funding

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+

Main

countries

: Brazil, Mexico

,Chile and

ArgentinaOther

countries

: Peru, Colombia

(Andean

Region)

Main

Technologies : Wind and

Biomass

Policies Trends Stakeholders Finance

• Several legal iniciatives

• Lack of financial incentives

• Specific mechanisms technological regulation

• Biomass• Wind• Small Hydro

Plants

• Research Centers

• Government• Regulators• Manufactures• Project

Developers

• BID• BNDES• GTZ• Government

Policies, trends, stakeholders, finance

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+P

oli

cie

s &

re

gul

ato

in

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+

• All countries have some sort of policy to promote RE

• Brazil has a development of laws, regulations and incentives that favored, over time, specific technologies such as biomass, and more recently wind and solar PV.

• Chile has shown interest in putting incentives and rules for the sources in a more general way and this has been the trend of the other analyzed countries.

Policies and

regulation: current scenario

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• Wind energy is the most promising technology by 2020, considering the plans of energy.

• Wind and biomass are the most important technologies for the next 5-10 years.

• It is expected significant expansion of wind energy in Argentina, Brazil and Chile, and biomass in Brazil, Argentina, Central America, Colombia and Peru.

Market/technology trends18

+Stakeholder

analysis: current

situation

Project Developers,

Manufacturers,

Environmental Ministries / Agencies

Trade Associations,

Chambers of Commerce and Industry,

International Banks,

Multilateral Organizations and national agencies

Note: project developers are essential in consolidating the market for these technologies, but in general there are sufficient critical mass.

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+Stakeholder

analysis: matrix

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+

Multicriteria

analysisWhich

are the

best

country+technology

?

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+Criteria

selection

and

analysis

There are three axes of evaluation or criteria used for thisanalysis: market, regulation and actors.

Projected installed capacity (High and Low) a quantitativecriterion.

Regulation and stakeholders: qualitative and represent, respectively, the degree of development and the importanceof the legal framework and existing players.

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+Energy projection

data

Table 71: Additional installed capacity per source and country (MW) 

Brazil (2020)1 Argentine (2020)2 Chile (2020)3 Peru

(2020)4 Colombia (2020)5

Venezuela (2013)6

Mexico

(2020)7

Central America

(2015)8

Wind energy 6000 - 7800 200 – 8000 1000 – 6122 0 - 403 9 – 100 172 1724 115

SHP( <20 MW) 6966 1004 616 - 676 0 – 509 512 – 601 0 465 0

Biomass 8521 300 - 1000 380 – 1742 101 180 0 100 110

Geothermal energy 0 100 – 200 0 – 488 125 – 400 55 0 126 25.5

Solar photovoltaic 0 250 - 500 4 80 0 0 0 0

Ocean energy (waves and tides)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CSP 195 300 0 - 970 0 0 0 0 0

+Results

Brazil-wind

Brazil-biomass

Brazil-SHP

Argentina-wind

Mexico-wind

Chile-SHP

Brazil-wind

Argentina-wind

Brazil-biomass

Brazil-SHP

Chile-wind

Mexico-wind and Argentina-PV

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Low

market

projections High

market

projections

These pairs represent the most promising markets for the future,

considering the information gathered using the official projections of electricity (by 2020, and considering the lowest and highest projection of demand for copper), the existing regulations and local stakeholders

+

ConclusionsOPORTUNITIES

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+Conclusions

Speed: the expansion of RE in the countries analyzed is moving fast.

Technology: The greatest opportunities are in wind and biomass

Countries:Large potential w/zero growth: Venezuela, Colombia, Central AmericaLarge potential, fast growth: Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico

Policies: there are several legal and regulatory initiatives, but not enough financial incentives and other market mechanisms

Regulation: while Brazil has opted to create specific regulation for different RE technologies, Chile has introduced broader RE regulation. It is still early to recommend best model for stimulating RE markets.

Stakeholders: Project developers are key to consolidate the market for these technologies and there is not enough critical mass of them.

Impacts: Still to see.

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+

The

Endgilberto@iei-la.orgjannuzzi@fem.unicamp.br

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+MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

-

Regulatory

mechanisms-

Economic

incentives-

Market

creation

-

Local partners/Government -

Manufacturers -

Class Associations -

Installation & Maintenance -

Environment Agencies -

NGOs Research -

Consulting & Engineering -

Funders

+MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

•

Scenario 1: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 1

•

Scenario 2: copper = 2; regulation = 1; actors = 1

•

Scenario 3: copper = 1; regulation = 2; actors = 1

•

Scenario 4: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 2

Weights for different scenarios

+MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

Ranking of evaluated countries-technologies pairsscenario 1: lower limit amount of additional copper