welcome! si/y2 climate and streamflow forecasting workshop noaa/nws colorado basin river forecast...
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome!
SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting WorkshopNOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, UT – March 21-22, 2011
Organized by Sponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board USBR NIDIS
Where are we now? 15 years of applied climate and flow forecasting research pertaining to western US
Variable use of findings within operational water prediction and management One of the biggest usage gaps: the upper Colorado River Basin Motivation: Increasing scrutiny of Colorado River water management
1970 1980 1990 2000
ESP first used at California-Nevada River Forecast Center
NWS/HRL begins ESP development
ESP first presented at the Western Snow Conference
ESP used for drought assessment
ESP used for water supply forecasts
ESP released with NWSRFS
ESP Analysis and Display Program (ESPADP) development started
ESPADP deployed to the field
Water Resources Forecasting Services (WARFS) quantifies
value of ESP
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast pre-adjustment developed for use in ESP
No lack of capacity, interest, or wille.g., NWS ESP
Medium to long-range ESP short-medium-long range ESP
Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) work begins
Western Snow Conference paper, 1977
Work to incorporate climate forecasts
Where are we going? *Goals
Development and Researcher to Operations Discussion of State of Practice versus State of Science Education of External Researchers and Partners Education of Internal Researchers and Forecasters Design and Establishment of Testbed for Evaluation and Intercomparison Next Steps toward Operational Advances
Stakeholder Interaction Disc…
*…and how can we get out of this hand-basket? (from Pulwarty)
AgendaToday (Monday)- Introductions- Current and future USBR and CBRFC practices- Ongoing research efforts on seasonal / 2 year prediction in
the Colorado Basin
Tomorrow (Tuesday)- Continue discussion on ongoing research efforts- Forecast testbed design and supporting datasets- Discussion: where do we go next?
Ample time built in for discussion through-out agendaInteraction with researchers and forecasters important
LogisticsLunches: - Today: catered in; use sign up sheets and pay with cash- Tomorrow: same thing?
Dinner:- Group dinner tonight at Squatters Brew Pub (147 W 300 South)
Wireless passcode: NWS$lc-1nternet
Teleconference / gotomeeting:- Slides online here: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/2011/s1y2/agenda.htm- Room is bad for audio… when presenting please be near microphone
Office Orientation / tour:- Building is shared with Weather Forecast Office and River Forecast
Center; you’re welcome to interact with either staff
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Sponsors
And now a word from today’s sponsors..
CWCB
NIDIS
Thank-you!!
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