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Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario
Wendel Trio, CAN Europe and Patrick ten Brink, EEBLaunch event, 30 June 2020, 10:28 – 10:33 CEST
Building a civil society scenario compatible with Paris
•Paris Agreement: Make effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
• Impacts already happening while we are heading to 3°C or more.
• IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C and UNEP Emissions Gap reports made clear what is needed.
•Based on science and equity, EU must go to -65% in 2030 and net zero by 2040.
Building a civil society scenario compatible with Paris
We are not the first or only ones.
Scenario building processJanuary 2019 – June 2020
• Collective research of >150 members & experts• 5 scenario workshops, webinars, online survey, feedback loops• Scrutinise existing studies and models: available solutions only
Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario
Jonathan Bonadio, EEB and Jörg Mühlenhoff, CAN EuropeLaunch event, 30 June 2020, 10:35 – 10:50 CEST
How we built our scenario
üAnalysis of energy demand of each sectorüMatching the yearly demand with supplyüEmission reductions, energy efficiency
and renewable sharesiterativeapproach
üHourly modelling (Öko-Institut PowerFlex)
Energy demand: how much will we consume?
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Final energy demand EU28 [TWh] - TotalTRANSPORT
AGRICULTURE
TERTIARYRESIDENTIAL
INDUSTRY
Energy demand:where does the energy come from?
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Final energy demand EU28 [TWh] - Totalliquid synthetic fuels
synthetic methane
renewable ammonia
renewable hydrogen
municipal solid waste (renewable)
municipal solid waste (non-renewable)
industrial excess heat recovery
aero/geothermal heat captured by heat pumps
geothermal heat
solar thermal heat
biogas heat
biomethane heat
solid biomass
electricity
biogas
biomethane
liquid biofuels
solid biomass
steam
waste
fossil gas
fossil oil products
coal
electricityfossil oil products
coal
fossil gas
bioenergy
heat pumps
renewable hydrogen
Industry sector
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Industry Final energy demand EU28 [TWh] - Totalsynthetic methanerenewable hydrogenmunicipal solid waste (renewable)municipal solid waste (non-renewable)industrial excess heat recoveryambient heat captured by heat pumpsgeothermal heatsolar thermalbiogas heat (delivered energy)biomethane heat (delivered energy)solid biomass heat (delivered energy)electricitybiogasbiomethaneliquid biofuelssolid biomasssteamwastefossil gasfossil oil productscoal
electricity
fossil oil products
renewable hydrogensolid biomass
synthetic methane
coal
fossil gas
biomethane
heat pumps
Residential sector
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Residential Final energy demand EU28 [TWh] - Totalmunicipal solid waste (renewable)
municipal solid waste (non-renewable)
industrial excess heat recovery
ambient heat captured by heat pumps
geothermal heat
solar thermal
biogas heat (delivered energy)
biomethane heat (delivered energy)
solid biomass heat (delivered energy)
electricity
biomethane
solid biomass
fossil gas
fossil oil products
coal
electricity
fossil oil productscoal
fossil gas
solid biomass
heat pumpssolar thermal
Tertiary sector
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tertiary Final energy demand EU28 [TWh] - Totalmunicipal solid waste (renewable)
municipal solid waste (non-renewable)
industrial excess heat recovery
ambient heat captured by heat pumps
geothermal heat
solar thermal
biogas heat (delivered energy)
biomethane heat (delivered energy)
solid biomass heat (delivered energy)
electricity
biomethane
solid biomass
fossil gas
fossil oil products
coalelectricityfossil oil productscoal
fossil gas
solid biomassheat pumps
solar thermal
Agriculture sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Agriculture Final energy demand EU28 [TWh] - Totalmunicipal solid waste (renewable)
municipal solid waste (non-renewable)
industrial excess heat recovery
ambient heat captured by heat pumps
geothermal heat
solar thermal
biogas heat (delivered energy)
biomethane heat (delivered energy)
solid biomass heat (delivered energy)
electricity
biogas
biomethane
liquid biofuels
solid biomass
fossil gas
fossil oil products
coal
electricity
fossil oil products
coal
fossil gas
solid biomass
heat pumps
biogas
liquid biofuels
Transport sector
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Transport Final energy demand EU28 [TWh] - Totalliquid synthetic fuels
renewable ammonia
renewable hydrogen
electricity
biomethane
liquid biofuels
fossil gas
fossil oil products
liquid synthetic fuels
electricity
fossil oil productsrenewable hydrogen
liquid biofuels
renewable ammonia
Uptake of solar and wind is key
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity generation EU28 [TWh]solar thermal (CSP)
geothermal energy
ocean energy
hydro
solar PV
wind
municipal solid waste (renewable)
biomethane
biogas
solid biomass
municipal solid waste (non-renewable)nuclear
fossil gas
fossil oil products
coal
wind onshore and offshore
solar pv
hydrogeothermal
biogas
nuclear
fossil gas
coal
Flexibility options:How to keep the lights on
Illustration: AEE
Storagee.g. batteries,
pumped hydro, renewable hydrogen,synthetic methane…
Grid extensionand efficient use of existing infrastructure
v
Demand response following real-time and/or local price
signals
Dispatchable renewables e.g. flexible biogas, hydro power
Wind
v
Solar
Flexible fossil power plants reduce generation
PAC scenario in a nutshell
Civil society’s scenario for
èreaching net-zero emissions by 2040èinvesting into the Green Recoveryèguiding EU infrastructure planning
Illustration: AEE
Thank you!
[email protected] [email protected]
The PAC project is supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic
Affairs and Energy