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WHISPERS IN CHAOS J. PAUL REED RELEASE ENGINEERING APPROACHES MONITORAMA, 2017

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Page 1: Whispers in Chaos

WHISPERS IN CHAOSJ. PAUL REED RELEASE ENGINEERING APPROACHES MONITORAMA, 2017

Page 2: Whispers in Chaos

Greetings, Pacific Power!

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 3: Whispers in Chaos

“CHAOS?!”

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 4: Whispers in Chaos

“CHAOS?!”(INCIDENTS)

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 5: Whispers in Chaos

HOW DO YOU KNOW AN INCIDENT

IS OCCURRING?@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 6: Whispers in Chaos

MONITORING!

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 7: Whispers in Chaos

MONITORING!(Not a trick question.)

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 8: Whispers in Chaos

HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO

WHEN AN INCIDENT IS OCCURRING?

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 9: Whispers in Chaos

J. PAUL REED• @JPAULREED ON • @SHIPSHOWPODCAST ALUM • 15+ YEARS IN BUILD/RELEASE

ENGINEERING • NOW, A DEVOPS CONSULTANT™ • MASTERS OF SCIENCE

CANDIDATE IN HUMAN FACTORS AND SYSTEMS SAFETY

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 10: Whispers in Chaos

HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO

WHEN AN INCIDENT IS OCCURRING?

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 11: Whispers in Chaos

Two Brain Systems

“Automatic” / Quick

Little to no effort

No sense of voluntary control

“System One”

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 12: Whispers in Chaos

Two Brain Systems

“Automatic” / Quick

Little to no effort

No sense of voluntary control

“Effortful”

Complex computations

“Associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration”

“System One” “System Two”

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Two Problem Types

Orient to the source of a sudden sound

Complete: “bread and…”

2 + 2 = ?

Find a strong move in chess(but only if you’re a chess master!)

Focus on a particular voice in a crowded room

Count the occurrence of the letter ‘a’ on this slide

Fill out a tax form

Check the validity of a complex logical argument

“System One” “System Two”

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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@jpaulreed #monitorama

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TRADE-OFFS UNDER PRESSURE: HEURISTICS AND OBSERVATIONS OF TEAMS RESOLVING INTERNET SERVICE OUTAGES

John Allspaw

LUND UNIVERSITY SWEDEN

Date of submission: 2015-09-07 @jpaulreed #monitorama

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“THE INCIDENT”On December 4th, 2014, during the busy holiday shopping season, it was reported at 1:06 PM EST that the personalized homepage for logged-in users was experiencing loading issues.

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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“Timelines, yadda, yadda”

The Field Guide to Understanding Human Error Dekker@jpaulreed #monitorama

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71

APPENDIX C – PARTICIPANT TIMELINES

Figure 19 - Infrastructure Engineer 1 timeline

Figure 20 - Infrastructure Engineer 2 timeline

Diagnostic Activity

Taking Action/Response

HOLD is placed on the push queue

ProdEng1 re-enables the sidebar,

with blog turned off

13:06:44 13:15:00 13:30:00 13:45:00 14:00:00 14:15:00 14:30:00

ProdEng2 turns off homepage

sidebar module

HOLD is removed on the push queue

Dashboard Access

Staff DirectoryAccess

PrincessRequests

ProductionSite Requests

Diagnostic Activity

Taking Action/Response

HOLD is placed on the push queue

ProdEng1 re-enables the sidebar,

with blog turned off

13:06:44 13:15:00 13:30:00 13:45:00 14:00:00 14:15:00 14:30:00

ProdEng2 turns off homepage

sidebar module

HOLD is removed on the push queue

Dashboard Access

Staff DirectoryAccess

Production SiteRequests

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Software: A Team Sport

38

Figure 8 - Timeline view of utterances in IRC, by participant

Combined IRC utterances@jpaulreed #monitorama

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ALLSPAW IDENTIFIED THREE “MONITORS” (HEURISTICS) ENGINEERS USE TO WORK

INCIDENTS@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Heuristic #1: Change

“What has changed since the system was in a known-good state?”@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Heuristic #2: “Go Wide”

Widen the search to any potential contributors imagined@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Heuristic #3: Convergent Searching

Confirm/disqualify diagnoses by matching signals/symptoms@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 25: Whispers in Chaos

Heuristic #3: Convergent SearchingConfirm / Disqualify…

…that comes to mind by matching signals or symptoms that appear similar

A specific and past diagnosis A general and recent diagnosis

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 26: Whispers in Chaos

Heuristic #3: Convergent SearchingConfirm / Disqualify…

…that comes to mind by matching signals or symptoms that appear similar

A really painful incident-memory An incident still in your L1 cache

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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“THE INCIDENT”The page load time increase was caused by:

33

Figure 5 - Signed-in homepage with sidebar components

A suggestion was put to the group to make a change that allowed the homepage to load without the sidebar, effectively turning off the code that appeared to be experiencing the errors, while leaving the rest of the page intact. This was a configuration feature the team had specifically built for this scenario. Once there was agreement, ProdEng2 began working on making this configuration change. Members of the team then generated more hypotheses about what could be happening when InfraEng2 posted a line from the application log of a Member_Homepage_Sidebar request:

[01:21:01 PM] <InfraEng2>: 10.101.152.3, 10.101.152.3, 10.101.160.45 - - - [04/Dec/2014:18:19:24 +0000] "GET /v3/public/shops/7887355/cards HTTP/1.1" 400 61 "/v3/member/23636811/homepage/sidebar" "Api_Client_V3/Member_Homepage_...”

which shows a 400 status code response 1(highlighted). InfraEng2 then posted the possible definitions of the 400 status code found in the application code:

[01:21:25 PM] <InfraEng2> 400 == Input_MissingError or DataType_Exception_InvalidInput or EtsyORM_RecordValidationException

InfraEng2 then investigated further examples of the 400 status code.

1 A 400 status code response in the HTTP protocol signifies a “Bad Request” which is intended to instruct the code making the request to treat it as an error.

CDN cache misses… Due to an HTTP 400status in an API… From a “closed store”… Referenced by a blog postin the sidebar

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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47

IE2

PE2IE5

IE1IE1

PE3

IE3

PE3

PE3

ProdEng1 re-enables the sidebar,

with blog turned off

13:06:44 13:15:00 13:30:00 13:45:00 14:00:00 14:15:00 14:30:00

ProdEng2 turns off homepage

sidebar module

disable aCDN?

Load balancerchanges?

Networkchanges?

Wordpressissue?

Frozen shop?

Featured shop?

PE1PE1

Varnish queuing?

Featuredstaff shop?

Sidebar loadingstaff shop?

IE1IE1IE1IE1IE1IE1IE1

Varnish not caching?

IE3

Databaseschema change?

IE2 IE2

IE1Errors from Homepage

sidebar

IE2400 response code

IE2

PublicShops_GetShopCardsAPI method

PE3

Featured shop loading

OK

IE2

“Shop 1234567does not exist”

Varnish queuing, not caching

400 responses?

Stated hypothesis

Critical relayed observation

Figure 16 - Diagnostic map of hypotheses

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Bonus Heuristic: Testing the Fix

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 30: Whispers in Chaos

61

b. 5 = I ALWAYS wait for tests to finish, I don't care how much time pressure there is.

The results of question one were: 29 Yes, 3 No. (n=32) The results of question two can be seen in Figure 18.

Figure 18 - Survey results: waiting for automated tests to finish

Some follow-up discussion with one of the respondents about the questions helped to provide more context on how they viewed the choice to wait or not:

“I think the two factors that affect my decision are the scope of the change and the scope of the outage. If I'm pushing a revert (vs a new patch), I have much more confidence that the tests will pass, since the reverted code has already been live (not 100%confidence, but high.) A new patch introduces more risk, especially unintended failures outside of where the patch is. I'm more likely to wait for the tests in that case. (EngS)

This context and the survey results help validate that the rule-of-thumb of not waiting for automated tests to finish and instead relying on peer review for gaining confidence on code changes (at least CONFIG changes) is not limited to this particular event, but is more prevalent. This finding would align well with Hollnagel’s examples of “Work-Related ETTO Rules” (Hollnagel, 2009) such as:

• `It has been checked earlier by someone else' - meaning that the correctness of the code change has been validated by a peer review

• `(Doing it) this way is much quicker' - meaning that a saving of time will happen by not waiting for the tests to finish

Abductive Reasoning Given the heuristics that have been identified, an interpretation of the diagnostic activity is that it demonstrates that abduction is the primary mode of reasoning in events such as these. Using a frame proposed by Woods, we can place the observations engineers made (via the process trace) as D, and the hypotheses generated (CDN, network, Wordpress, database schema changes, frozen shops, etc.) during the event as H (Woods, 1995a):

• Step 1: D=collection of observations, givens, facts • Step 2: H explains D, that is, H, if true, would account for D

Bonus Heuristic: Testing the Fix

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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61

b. 5 = I ALWAYS wait for tests to finish, I don't care how much time pressure there is.

The results of question one were: 29 Yes, 3 No. (n=32) The results of question two can be seen in Figure 18.

Figure 18 - Survey results: waiting for automated tests to finish

Some follow-up discussion with one of the respondents about the questions helped to provide more context on how they viewed the choice to wait or not:

“I think the two factors that affect my decision are the scope of the change and the scope of the outage. If I'm pushing a revert (vs a new patch), I have much more confidence that the tests will pass, since the reverted code has already been live (not 100%confidence, but high.) A new patch introduces more risk, especially unintended failures outside of where the patch is. I'm more likely to wait for the tests in that case. (EngS)

This context and the survey results help validate that the rule-of-thumb of not waiting for automated tests to finish and instead relying on peer review for gaining confidence on code changes (at least CONFIG changes) is not limited to this particular event, but is more prevalent. This finding would align well with Hollnagel’s examples of “Work-Related ETTO Rules” (Hollnagel, 2009) such as:

• `It has been checked earlier by someone else' - meaning that the correctness of the code change has been validated by a peer review

• `(Doing it) this way is much quicker' - meaning that a saving of time will happen by not waiting for the tests to finish

Abductive Reasoning Given the heuristics that have been identified, an interpretation of the diagnostic activity is that it demonstrates that abduction is the primary mode of reasoning in events such as these. Using a frame proposed by Woods, we can place the observations engineers made (via the process trace) as D, and the hypotheses generated (CDN, network, Wordpress, database schema changes, frozen shops, etc.) during the event as H (Woods, 1995a):

• Step 1: D=collection of observations, givens, facts • Step 2: H explains D, that is, H, if true, would account for D

Bonus Heuristic: Testing the Fix

YOLO, Every Day, Twice on Sundays?

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 32: Whispers in Chaos

HOW DO YOU GET BETTER AT DETECTING AN INCIDENT

IS OCCURRING?@jpaulreed #monitorama

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MONITOR THINGS

BETTER!@jpaulreed #monitorama

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MONITOR THINGS

BETTER!(Still not a trick question.)

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 35: Whispers in Chaos

HOW DO YOU GET BETTER AT

KNOWING WHAT TO DO WHEN AN INCIDENT

IS OCCURRING?@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 36: Whispers in Chaos

Elements of “Expertise”Experts use their knowledge base to

Recognize typicality

Make fine discriminations

Use mental simulation

Knowledge base also used to apply higher level rules

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 37: Whispers in Chaos

“Seeing the Invisible”

With experience, a person gains the ability to visualize how a

situation developed and how to imagine how it’s going to turn out. Experts can see what is not there.

Seeing the Invisible: Perceptual-Cognitive Aspects of Expertise Klein & Hoffman@jpaulreed #monitorama

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10,000 HOUR RULE

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 39: Whispers in Chaos

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 40: Whispers in Chaos

“Yeah, but Malcolm Gladwell…”Psychological Review1993, Vol. 100. No. 3, 363-406

Copyright 1993 by the American Psychological Association, Inc.0033-295X/93/S3.00

The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance

K. Anders Ericsson, Ralf Th. Krampe, and Clemens Tesch-Romer

The theoretical framework presented in this article explains expert performance as the end result ofindividuals' prolonged efforts to improve performance while negotiating motivational and externalconstraints. In most domains of expertise, individuals begin in their childhood a regimen ofeffortful activities (deliberate practice) designed to optimize improvement. Individual differences,even among elite performers, are closely related to assessed amounts of deliberate practice. Manycharacteristics once believed to reflect innate talent are actually the result of intense practiceextended for a minimum of 10 years. Analysis of expert performance provides unique evidence onthe potential and limits of extreme environmental adaptation and learning.

Our civilization has always recognized exceptional individ-uals, whose performance in sports, the arts, and science isvastly superior to that of the rest of the population. Specula-tions on the causes of these individuals' extraordinary abilitiesand performance are as old as the first records of their achieve-ments. Early accounts commonly attribute these individuals'outstanding performance to divine intervention, such as theinfluence of the stars or organs in their bodies, or to specialgifts (Murray, 1989). As science progressed, these explanationsbecame less acceptable. Contemporary accounts assert that thecharacteristics responsible for exceptional performance are in-nate and are genetically transmitted.

The simplicity of these accounts is attractive, but more isneeded. A truly scientific account of exceptional performancemust completely describe both the development leading to ex-ceptional performance and the genetic and acquired character-istics that mediate it. This account must specify the criticaldifferences between exceptional and ordinary performers. Itmust also show that any postulated genetic differences can behereditary and are plausible from an evolutionary perspective.Theoreticians in behavioral genetics (Plomin, DeFries, &McClearn, 1990) now argue that this is a very challenging task

K. Anders Ericsson, Institute of Cognitive Science, University ofColorado at Boulder; Ralf Th. Krampe and Clemens Tesch-Romer,Max Planck Institute for Human Development and Education, Berlin,Federal Republic of Germany.

The empirical research for this article was conducted at the MaxPlanck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. Research supportby the Max Planck Society and support and encouragement from PaulBaltes are gratefully acknowledged.

We thank Peter Usinger and Stefanie Heizmann for their help in thedata collection and Catherine Ashworth, Gregory Carey, RobertCrutcher, Janet Grassia, Reid Hastie, Stefanie Heizmann, CharlesJudd, Ronald Kellogg, Robert Levin, Clayton Lewis, William Oliver,Peter Poison, Robert Rehder, Kurt Schlesinger, Vivian Schneider, andJames Wilson for their valuable comments on earlier drafts of thisarticle. Helpful suggestions and valuable criticism by Richard Shiffrinon previously submitted versions of this article are gratefully acknowl-edged.

Correspondence concerning this article should be sent to K. AndersEricsson, who is now at the Department of Psychology R-54, FloridaState University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306-1051.

because observed behavior is the result of interactions betweenenvironmental factors and genes during the extended period ofdevelopment. Therefore, to better understand expert and ex-ceptional performance, we must require that the account spec-ify the different environmental factors that could selectivelypromote and facilitate the achievement of such performance. Inaddition, recent research on expert performance and expertise(Chi, Glaser, & Farr, 1988; Ericsson & Smith, 199la) has shownthat important characteristics of experts' superior performanceare acquired through experience and that the effect of practiceon performance is larger than earlier believed possible. For thisreason, an account of exceptional performance must specifythe environmental circumstances, such as the duration andstructure of activities, and necessary minimal biological attrib-utes that lead to the acquisition of such characteristics and acorresponding level of performance.

An account that explains how a majority of individuals canattain a given level of expert performance might seem inher-ently unable to explain the exceptional performance of only asmall number of individuals. However, if such an empiricalaccount could be empirically supported, then the extremecharacteristics of experts could be viewed as having been ac-quired through learning and adaptation, and studies of expertperformance could provide unique insights into the possibili-ties and limits of change in cognitive capacities and bodilyfunctions. In this article we propose a theoretical frameworkthat explains expert performance in terms of acquired charac-teristics resulting from extended deliberate practice and thatlimits the role of innate (inherited) characteristics to generallevels of activity and emotionality. We provide empirical sup-port from two new studies and from already published evi-dence on expert performance in many different domains.

Brief Historical BackgroundSir Francis Gallon was the first scientist to investigate the

possibility that excellence in diverse fields and domains has acommon set of causes. He found that eminent individuals inthe British Isles were more likely to have close relatives whowere also eminent—although not necessarily in the same do-main—than to have distant relatives who were eminent. Heconcluded that eminence, that is, exceptional performance in a

363

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 41: Whispers in Chaos

“Yeah, but Malcolm Gladwell…”

Why expert performance is special and cannot be extrapolatedfrom studies of performance in the general population:A response to criticisms☆

K. Anders EricssonDepartment of Psychology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-1270, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history:Received 1 December 2013Accepted 1 December 2013Available online 23 December 2013

Many misunderstandings about the expert-performance approach can be attributed to itsunique methodology and theoretical concepts. This approach was established with casestudies of the acquisition of expert memory with detailed experimental analysis of themediating mechanisms. In contrast the traditional individual difference approach starts withthe assumption of underlying general latent factors of cognitive ability and personality thatcorrelate with performance across levels of acquired skill. My review rejects the assumptionthat data on large samples of beginners can be extrapolated to samples of elite and expertperformers. Once we can agree on the criteria for reproducible objective expert performanceand acceptable methodologies for collecting valid data. I believe that scientists will recognizethe need for expert-performance approach to the study of expert performance, especially atthe very highest levels of achievement.

© 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Keywords:Expert performanceDeliberate practiceLong-term working memoryInnate talentIQ

1. Introduction

Contributors to the special issue on “Development ofExpertise” criticized Ericsson, Krampe, and Tesch-Römer's(1993) theoretical framework for studying expert perfor-mance. In this response I will propose that many of theseunflattering descriptions are due to the fact that the Expert-Performance framework is qualitatively different from thetraditional theoretical frameworks for relating individualdifferences in ability. The fundamental controversy concernsthe relation between normal and beginning levels of perfor-mance and the attainable expert levels of performance. Theresearchers working within the individual differences frame-work argue that the structure of expert performance can beextrapolated from the performance–ability relations observed

in the general adult population. The structure of expertperformance merely corresponds to extreme cases on theunderlying ability distributions, and thus ability differences ingeneral cognitive ability remain predictive of performance atthe highest level. In contrast, the expert-performance frame-work hypothesizes that new cognitive mechanisms are gradu-ally acquired during the extended period and they mediate thesuperior performance, thus leading to qualitative differencesin structure compared to untrained performance.

1.1. The study of the acquisition of expert performance throughdeliberate practice

During the last 20 years since our article in 1993 (Ericssonet al., 1993) peoples' conceptions about expertise and expertperformance have changed. In the early 1990s, when ourpaper was written, the contemporary theories of skill acquisi-tion (Anderson, 1982; Fitts & Posner, 1967) at that timeproposed accounts for the acquisition of everyday skills such asdriving a car, typing, and navigating in an unfamiliar environ-ment. For these skills most individuals had the primary goal of

Intelligence 45 (2014) 81–103

☆ Author notes: I am grateful for the financial support provided by the FSCW/Conradi Endowment Fund of Florida State University Foundation. The authorwants to thank Walter Boot, Edward Cokely, Len Hill, Colleen Kelley, andJerad Moxley for their valuable comments and suggestions on earlier drafts ofthis article.

E-mail address: [email protected].

0160-2896/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2013.12.001

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Intelligence

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Expert PerformancePsychological Review1993, Vol. 100. No. 3, 363-406

Copyright 1993 by the American Psychological Association, Inc.0033-295X/93/S3.00

The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance

K. Anders Ericsson, Ralf Th. Krampe, and Clemens Tesch-Romer

The theoretical framework presented in this article explains expert performance as the end result ofindividuals' prolonged efforts to improve performance while negotiating motivational and externalconstraints. In most domains of expertise, individuals begin in their childhood a regimen ofeffortful activities (deliberate practice) designed to optimize improvement. Individual differences,even among elite performers, are closely related to assessed amounts of deliberate practice. Manycharacteristics once believed to reflect innate talent are actually the result of intense practiceextended for a minimum of 10 years. Analysis of expert performance provides unique evidence onthe potential and limits of extreme environmental adaptation and learning.

Our civilization has always recognized exceptional individ-uals, whose performance in sports, the arts, and science isvastly superior to that of the rest of the population. Specula-tions on the causes of these individuals' extraordinary abilitiesand performance are as old as the first records of their achieve-ments. Early accounts commonly attribute these individuals'outstanding performance to divine intervention, such as theinfluence of the stars or organs in their bodies, or to specialgifts (Murray, 1989). As science progressed, these explanationsbecame less acceptable. Contemporary accounts assert that thecharacteristics responsible for exceptional performance are in-nate and are genetically transmitted.

The simplicity of these accounts is attractive, but more isneeded. A truly scientific account of exceptional performancemust completely describe both the development leading to ex-ceptional performance and the genetic and acquired character-istics that mediate it. This account must specify the criticaldifferences between exceptional and ordinary performers. Itmust also show that any postulated genetic differences can behereditary and are plausible from an evolutionary perspective.Theoreticians in behavioral genetics (Plomin, DeFries, &McClearn, 1990) now argue that this is a very challenging task

K. Anders Ericsson, Institute of Cognitive Science, University ofColorado at Boulder; Ralf Th. Krampe and Clemens Tesch-Romer,Max Planck Institute for Human Development and Education, Berlin,Federal Republic of Germany.

The empirical research for this article was conducted at the MaxPlanck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. Research supportby the Max Planck Society and support and encouragement from PaulBaltes are gratefully acknowledged.

We thank Peter Usinger and Stefanie Heizmann for their help in thedata collection and Catherine Ashworth, Gregory Carey, RobertCrutcher, Janet Grassia, Reid Hastie, Stefanie Heizmann, CharlesJudd, Ronald Kellogg, Robert Levin, Clayton Lewis, William Oliver,Peter Poison, Robert Rehder, Kurt Schlesinger, Vivian Schneider, andJames Wilson for their valuable comments on earlier drafts of thisarticle. Helpful suggestions and valuable criticism by Richard Shiffrinon previously submitted versions of this article are gratefully acknowl-edged.

Correspondence concerning this article should be sent to K. AndersEricsson, who is now at the Department of Psychology R-54, FloridaState University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306-1051.

because observed behavior is the result of interactions betweenenvironmental factors and genes during the extended period ofdevelopment. Therefore, to better understand expert and ex-ceptional performance, we must require that the account spec-ify the different environmental factors that could selectivelypromote and facilitate the achievement of such performance. Inaddition, recent research on expert performance and expertise(Chi, Glaser, & Farr, 1988; Ericsson & Smith, 199la) has shownthat important characteristics of experts' superior performanceare acquired through experience and that the effect of practiceon performance is larger than earlier believed possible. For thisreason, an account of exceptional performance must specifythe environmental circumstances, such as the duration andstructure of activities, and necessary minimal biological attrib-utes that lead to the acquisition of such characteristics and acorresponding level of performance.

An account that explains how a majority of individuals canattain a given level of expert performance might seem inher-ently unable to explain the exceptional performance of only asmall number of individuals. However, if such an empiricalaccount could be empirically supported, then the extremecharacteristics of experts could be viewed as having been ac-quired through learning and adaptation, and studies of expertperformance could provide unique insights into the possibili-ties and limits of change in cognitive capacities and bodilyfunctions. In this article we propose a theoretical frameworkthat explains expert performance in terms of acquired charac-teristics resulting from extended deliberate practice and thatlimits the role of innate (inherited) characteristics to generallevels of activity and emotionality. We provide empirical sup-port from two new studies and from already published evi-dence on expert performance in many different domains.

Brief Historical BackgroundSir Francis Gallon was the first scientist to investigate the

possibility that excellence in diverse fields and domains has acommon set of causes. He found that eminent individuals inthe British Isles were more likely to have close relatives whowere also eminent—although not necessarily in the same do-main—than to have distant relatives who were eminent. Heconcluded that eminence, that is, exceptional performance in a

363

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 43: Whispers in Chaos

Expertise in Other CraftsImmediately starting the APU

Taking control of the airplane

Not attempting to land at La Guardia Airport

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Expertise in Ops:

A Haiku

@jpaulreed #monitorama

Page 45: Whispers in Chaos

Transforming Experience into Expertise

Personal Experiences: “the opportunity to be continually challenged”

Directed Experiences: Receiving tutoring so as to be able to tutor

Manufactured Experiences: training / simulation

Vicarious Experiences: painful / memorable events we craft into stories we tell others

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Transforming Experience into Expertise

Personal Experiences: “On-call”

Directed Experiences: Training / Code Review / Pair Programming / Wikis+Runbooks

Manufactured Experiences: Chaos Engineering / Game Days

Vicarious Experiences: “I remember this one incident… where it was DNS.”

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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EXPLORE DISCRETIONARY

SPACES@jpaulreed #monitorama

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The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Boundary of

Economic Failure

Boundary of

Unacceptable Workload

Boun

dary

of Fu

nctio

nally

Acce

ptable

Perfo

rman

ce /

Acce

ptable

Risk

The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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“Cheaper, Better, Faster”

The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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“Cheaper, Better, Faster”

Maximum Work for the Least Effort

The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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“Cheaper, Better, Faster”

Maximum Work for the Least Effort

The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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“Cheaper, Better, Faster”

Maximum Work for the Least Effort

The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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“Cheaper, Better, Faster”

Maximum Work for the Least Effort

The Rasmussen Triangle

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Maslow’s SRE Hierarchy

Figure III-1. Service Reliability Hierarchy

MonitoringWithout monitoring, you have no way to tell whether the service is even working;absent a thoughtfully designed monitoring infrastructure, you’re flying blind. Maybeeveryone who tries to use the website gets an error, maybe not—but you want to beaware of problems before your users notice them. We discuss tools and philosophy inChapter 10, Practical Alerting from Time-Series Data.

Incident ResponseSREs don’t go on-call merely for the sake of it: rather, on-call support is a tool we useto achieve our larger mission and remain in touch with how distributed computingsystems actually work (and fail!). If we could find a way to relieve ourselves of carry‐ing a pager, we would. In Chapter 11, Being On-Call, we explain how we balance on-call duties with our other responsibilities.

Once you’re aware that there is a problem, how do you make it go away? That doesn’tnecessarily mean fixing it once and for all—maybe you can stop the bleeding byreducing the system’s precision or turning off some features temporarily, allowing itto gracefully degrade, or maybe you can direct traffic to another instance of the ser‐vice that’s working properly. The details of the solution you choose to implement arenecessarily specific to your service and your organization. Responding effectively toincidents, however, is something applicable to all teams.

Site Reliability Engineering: How Google Runs Production Systems@jpaulreed #monitorama

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Just Two QuestionsDid at least one person learn one thing that will affect how they work in the future?

Did at least half of the attendees say they would attend another debrief in the future?

Debriefing Facilitation GuideLeading Groups at Etsy to Learn From Accidents Authors: John Allspaw, Morgan Evans, Daniel Schauenberg

@jpaulreed #monitorama

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HOW DO YOU GET BETTER AT

KNOWING WHAT TO DO WHEN AN INCIDENT

IS OCCURRING?@jpaulreed #monitorama

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CREATE SPACE & EXPERIENCES TO FACILITATE THE CULTIVATION OF

OURSELVES AND OUR TEAMS SO AS TO IMPROVE OUR HEURISTICS AT DETECTING

WEAK SIGNALS AND AMBIGUITY IN THE COMPLEX SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS WE

OPERATE AND IN WHICH WE EXIST@jpaulreed #monitorama

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PRACTICE MAKES… BETTER

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EXPERTISE TAKES TIME. AND SPACE.

MAKE TIME AND SPACE.@jpaulreed #monitorama

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IT’S JUST US OUT HERE @jpaulreed #monitorama

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BE GOOD TO EACH OTHER ON OUR JOURNEY TO EXPERTISE@jpaulreed #monitorama

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J. Paul Reed [email protected]

@jpaulreed http://jpaulreed.com

Anonymous Feedback http://sayat.me/jpaulreed

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BibliographyAllspaw, J. (2015). Trade-offs under pressure: heuristics and observations of teams resolving Internet service outages (Unpublished master’s thesis). Lund University, Lund, Sweden.

Allspaw, J., Evans, M., & Shauenberg, D. (2016). Debriefing facilitation guide: leading groups at Etsy to learn from accidents. Retrieved January 23, 2017, from https://extfiles.etsy.com/DebriefingFacilitationGuide.pdf

Beyer, B., Jones, C., Petoff, J., & Murphy, N. R. (Eds). (2016). Site reliability engineering: how Google runs production systems. Sebastopol, California: O’Reilly Media.

Ericsson, K. A., Trampe, R. T., & Tesch-Römer, C. (1993). The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. Psychological Review, 100(3), pp. 363-406.

Ericsson, K. A. (2013). Why expert performance is special and cannot be extrapolated from studies of performance in the general population: a response to criticisms. Intelligence, 45, pp. 81-103.

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BibliographyGladwell, M. (2008). Outliers: the story of success. New York, New York: Little, Brown and Company.

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Klein, G. A., & Hoffman, R. R. (1992). Seeing the invisible: perceptual-cognitive aspects of expertise. In M. Rabinowitz (Ed.), Cognitive science foundations of instruction (pp. 203-226). Mahwah, New Jersey: Erlbaum.

Rasmussen, J. (1997). Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem. Safety Science, 27(2-3), pp. 183-213.

Sullenberger, C. & Zaslow, J. (2009). Highest duty: my search for what really matters. New York, New York: Harper Collins.

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