wicked solutions to climate smart agriculture
DESCRIPTION
Presentation made by Andy Jarvis, CCAFS Theme Leader, in the Davis meeting on Climate Smart Agriculture on March 21st 2013.TRANSCRIPT
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Evaluation approaches and tools for assessing agricultural vulnerability/resilience to climate change in regional contexts (assessments, multi-scale models, place-based analysis with stakeholders)
Andy Jarvis
Theme Leader, Adapting to Progressive Climate Change
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Landscape-scale research on food security, natural resources, policy and governance to achieve agricultural resilience to climate change.
Talk about a wicked scale!
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Evaluation approaches and tools for assessing agricultural vulnerability/resilience to climate change in regional contexts (assessments, multi-scale models, place-based analysis with stakeholders)
…a particularly malicious title
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Let’s talk about Wicked Solutions
wick·ed (w k d)adj. wick·ed·er, wick·ed·est1. Evil by nature and in practice: "this wicked man Hitler, the repository and embodiment of many forms of soul-destroying hatred"(Winston S. Churchill).2. Playfully malicious or mischievous: a wicked prank; a critic's wicked wit.3. Severe and distressing: a wicked cough; a wicked gash; wicked driving conditions.4. Highly offensive; obnoxious: a wicked stench.5. Slang Strikingly good, effective, or skillful
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1 January 2013
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maize beans tomato Chicken/hens
dairy0
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Lushoto (Tanzania)
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Weather reasons for adapting
a) More erratic rainfallb) ↘ overall rainfall (88%)c) ↗ amount of rainfall (39%)d) more frequent droughts
(71%)e) earlier start of the rains
77%)f) Later start of rains (65%)
Drivers• Availability of high yielding varieties more resistant to pest and diseases• More profitable market prices. • Less productive land
Lushoto (Tanzania)
Changes in land use and crop management- introduction of new, higher yielding crop varieties of
maize, beans and tomatoes
- switching to disease resistant varieties of cassava, bananas and maize
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1 January 2013
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Weather related reasons for Δ Crop/ mngt change
↘ overall rainfall (88%)↗ erratic rainfall (75%)↗ frequent droughts (71%)
Adoption of shorter cycle and drought tolerant crop varieties
Earlier start of the rains (77%) Planting earlier (maize) Switching to disease resistant varieties (maize cassava,
bananas)
Later start of rains (65%) Planting crops later (beans and cassava)
↗ overall rain (39%) Maize, beans and tree based crops (peaches, apples and coffee) planted years to utilize the increased moisture
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Gender Division of Labor
Examples:
Spraying was reported as a men’s task, and
Weeding mainly as a women’s task
Women’s Reporting Men’s Reporting
MenWomenBoysGirls
Overall, men and women tend to report that they themselves do most of the tasks
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Decision-Making
Across all 4 sites:
Women report that men make most decisions
Men report more decisions are taken jointly
Example: Nyando, Kenya
Women’s Reporting Men’s Reporting
MenWomenTogether
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Let’s ask the scientist?
What happens to staples in Africa?
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Impacts on staples in SSA
Crops affected differently.
Regional differences in impacts.
We have uncertainty.
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Cassava’s role as a substitution cropCassava as a fallback crop under an uncertain climate (risk management)
Cassava as the substitution crop for other staples more sensitive to heat and drought
What are the socio-cultural constraints to a shift in staple, and how can this shift be most effectively made?
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If I were a policy maker or decision maker…………I’d be confused
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Wicked solutions across scales and disciplines
• Global and regional scale problem diagnosis feeding into local and
national lead solutions
• Some examples:
• Vulnerability assessment identifying entry points
• Local learning processes
• Towards better national level plans and strategies
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Led byAdaptation entry points in maize-bean systems
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Led byFarms of the futureThe Concept
Three ongoing pilots
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Led byYamba analogue map + Study Tour Itinerary + Activities - Zoom
-Weather sttin visit - Bean trial visit- Tree nursery visit
LushotoCCAFS site
Farms of the futureJourney to Yamba’s plausible futures
Tanzania
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Njombe
Nyombo
Mbinga
Farms of the futureTaking the analogue concept to the field
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Lushoto Mbuzii Yamba
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Nyombo
Njombe
Mbinga
Kinole
FOTF in Tanzania
Analogue study Tour Villages visited Starting point
Sepukila Village: -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and water conservation technique-Coffee nursery-StovesMasasi Village:-Water source-Fish pond-BiogasMtama Village: - Bee keeping
-Weather station visit
- Avocado trial
-Banana varieties trial
- Maize fertility mngt
-Market value chain social enterprise visit- Input supply Stockists
-Weather station visit - Bean trial visit- Tree nursery visit
- SACCOS
visit
- Market
visit
Farms of the futureJourney to Yamba’s plausible futures
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Persons and items distribution
Rash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made
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Led byDeterminants of the degree of adaptation – Poisson regression model
Variable Coefficient P-value
Lnage -0.259 0.034**
Help 0.281 0.019**
Years of schooling 0.025 0.014**
Ln total asset value 0.060 0.096*
Government influence 0.364 0.002***
Less land productivity 0.164 0.060*
Ability to hire farm labour 0.231 0.031**
Constant 2.135 0.002***
Wald chi2(20)=104.63; p=0.000Alpha = 0.12N=131
Dependent variable = number of adaptation strategies undertaken
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A MAC style prioritisation framework for CSA?
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Time
Upt
ake
of s
usta
inab
le a
gric
ultu
ral p
racti
ces
Innovation / Identification of practices
Pre-investment (eg, development funds, climate finance)
Implementation at scale / Establishment of institutions
Demonstration of agro-economic and sustainability potential
Policy shifts and large-scale changes in practices, livelihoods and environmental impacts
Demonstration of financial / commercial viability and sustainability outcomes
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Wicked solutions across scales and disciplines
• Local, landscape, national, regional and global scale – make sense of the trade-offs and drivers between these
• Science stitching pieces together, without getting lost in the complexity –hopping between disciplines and scales
• Plug scientific insights into the policy environment to achieve wide-scale climate smart agricultural adoption