WMO FORUM: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC WMO FORUM: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER

SERVICES SERVICES

Dr. George Kordzakhia Dr. George Kordzakhia

WMO HEADQUARTERS, WMO HEADQUARTERS,

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND GENEVA, SWITZERLAND

8-11 APRIL 20138-11 APRIL 2013

THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY GEORGIAGEORGIA

HYSTORY AND PRESENT CONDITIONS OF NATIONAL MONITORING SYSTEM IN GEORGIA

2006

3

Geospatial resources: geographySOURCE: GeoGraphic

BRIEF HYSTORY

In May 14, 1844 the Tbilisi magnetic-metorological observatory was founded;

The Agency and its hydrometeorological department are heir-at-law . Therefore the Agency is the oldest organization in Georgia.

STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCYENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION MONITORING

DEPARTMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGICAL

DISASTERS

BRANCHES OF THE AGENCY

ADJARA KOLCHKHETI KARTLISAMTSKHE-JAVAKHETI KAKHETI

STATIONSGAUGES

LABORATORIES

STATIONSGAUGES

LABORATORIES

STATIONSGAUGES

LABORATORIES

STATIONSGAUGES

LABORATORIES

STATIONSGAUGES

LABORATORIES

FUNCTIONS OF THE AGENCY On the territory of Georgia and Black Sea in the fields of meteorology,

hydrology, operational oceanography, environmental monitoring and geodynamics carrying out observations, analysis, forecasting, research and provision with products population, governmental bodies and various sectors of economy;

Monitoring over hydro and morpho dynamic processes, Monitoring over hydro and morpho dynamic processes, permanent mapping works, identification of risk zones and permanent mapping works, identification of risk zones and forecasting of coastline development in the coastline zone of forecasting of coastline development in the coastline zone of the sea;the sea;

Issuing warnings in case of disasters of meteorological, hydrological and geodynamic origin and in occasion of high and extreme pollution of the

environment; Fulfillment of international commitments under various conventions

and bilateral and multilateral agreements in the spheres of meteorology, hydrology and environmental pollution monitoring in frames its competence.

REMARK Functioning of the Agency is not possible without daily connections with the NMHSs and other similar services and international organizations (i.e. interchange of operational information, including forecasts and warnings etc.).

SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY

IN GEORGIA (1)IN GEORGIA (1)

1832 Creation of episodic meteorological observations;1844 Magnetic-meteorological observatory was established

and regular meteorological observations started ; 1850 Creation of glaciological observations ( Devdoraki);

1883 Specialized agrometeorological observations started;

1904 Actinometrical observations started;

1914 The weather service was established;1905 Hydrological observations started;1930 Hydrometeorological Service was established;

1931 Air meteorological observations started ;

SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY

IN GEORGIA (2)IN GEORGIA (2)

1932 Snow height field work measurements started;

1937 Upper air sounding started;

1964 Marine hydro meteorological observations started;

1967 Works on hail active influence were Works on hail active influence were started; started; 1979 Works on precipitation artificial stimulation Works on precipitation artificial stimulation were started; were started;1988 Works on avalanches artificial descending were started.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (1)(1)

This slide represents the basic results of pilot research This slide represents the basic results of pilot research according to economic efficiency, of various branches of according to economic efficiency, of various branches of economy, of Hydrometeorological Provision (HMP) in economy, of Hydrometeorological Provision (HMP) in Georgia, carried out by joint efforts of experts of National Georgia, carried out by joint efforts of experts of National Hydrometeorological Service (NHMS) and IBRD. The aim Hydrometeorological Service (NHMS) and IBRD. The aim of a pilot phase of the research is definition of direct of a pilot phase of the research is definition of direct influence of quality and early warning improvement of influence of quality and early warning improvement of hydrometeorological forecasts and preventions about the hydrometeorological forecasts and preventions about the dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena (HP) in the dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena (HP) in the frame of economic losses.frame of economic losses.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (2)(2)

The national economy is characterized on dependence of The national economy is characterized on dependence of weather condition which is defined by specific weight of weather condition which is defined by specific weight of the most significant sensitive branches of industry the most significant sensitive branches of industry determinant gross national product (GDP), these branches determinant gross national product (GDP), these branches are the industry (heavy, light), an agriculture, transport are the industry (heavy, light), an agriculture, transport and construction. The percentage of GDP from industry is and construction. The percentage of GDP from industry is 28 %, from agriculture - 25 %, from transport and 28 %, from agriculture - 25 %, from transport and communication - 10 %, from constructions - 5 %. As a communication - 10 %, from constructions - 5 %. As a whole the depending on weather condition branches of whole the depending on weather condition branches of economy of Georgia is 68 % of GDP.economy of Georgia is 68 % of GDP.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (3)(3)

The peculiarity of a physiographic position, a The peculiarity of a physiographic position, a development of economy and its dependence on weather development of economy and its dependence on weather conditions of Georgia define the basic risks combined with conditions of Georgia define the basic risks combined with adverse conditions of weather.adverse conditions of weather.

In the territory of Georgia the most dangerous adverse In the territory of Georgia the most dangerous adverse conditions of weather, caused risks of economy are: conditions of weather, caused risks of economy are: heavy shower, drought, frost, hailstone, strong wind, ice, heavy shower, drought, frost, hailstone, strong wind, ice, fog, thunder-storms. All these phenomena bring fog, thunder-storms. All these phenomena bring significant material and human losses. significant material and human losses.

In territory of Georgia within a year the number of days In territory of Georgia within a year the number of days reach: abundant precipitation (more than 30 mm per day) reach: abundant precipitation (more than 30 mm per day) - 30; hailstone - 5, thunder-storm - 50, fog - 120, strong - 30; hailstone - 5, thunder-storm - 50, fog - 120, strong wind - 40, frost - 60. The probability of strong droughts in wind - 40, frost - 60. The probability of strong droughts in steppe areas of east Georgia reach 40 % in this steppe areas of east Georgia reach 40 % in this connection its desertification probability makes 30 %.connection its desertification probability makes 30 %.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (4)(4)

The base of used branch investigation consists in The base of used branch investigation consists in definition of two key parameters, which are necessary for definition of two key parameters, which are necessary for integrated estimation of economic feasibility of integrated estimation of economic feasibility of modernization of NHMS: (i) a share potentially modernization of NHMS: (i) a share potentially preventable losses from the total losses which will be preventable losses from the total losses which will be possible to avoid as a result of realization of possible to avoid as a result of realization of modernization (according to the developed methodology modernization (according to the developed methodology they represent two factors - Ri·Si); (ii) a share of level of they represent two factors - Ri·Si); (ii) a share of level of expenses for preventive (protective) actions as a result of expenses for preventive (protective) actions as a result of improvement of reliability hydrometeorological improvement of reliability hydrometeorological informationinformation and its early warning (Δi).and its early warning (Δi).

The influence of dangerous hydrometeorological The influence of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (DHP) and adverse conditions of weather phenomena (DHP) and adverse conditions of weather (ACW) on economy cause damages both direct and (ACW) on economy cause damages both direct and indirect economic losses. indirect economic losses.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (5)(5)

Taking into account that the indirect economic losses from Taking into account that the indirect economic losses from influence of DHP can be estimated only on the basis of influence of DHP can be estimated only on the basis of meteorology-economic modeling and in this presented meteorology-economic modeling and in this presented assessment these losses were not estimated. In this assessment these losses were not estimated. In this connection the share potentially preventable losses was connection the share potentially preventable losses was estimated from a level of direct economic losses caused estimated from a level of direct economic losses caused by DHP and ACW (Ri·Si for DHP) and from a level of by DHP and ACW (Ri·Si for DHP) and from a level of indirect economic losses caused by ACW (Ri·Si for ACW) indirect economic losses caused by ACW (Ri·Si for ACW) separately.separately.

Assessment was carried out accordingly with specially Assessment was carried out accordingly with specially developed questionnaire which purpose was not only developed questionnaire which purpose was not only expert definition of the key parameters necessary for expert definition of the key parameters necessary for calculation of economic efficiency of modernization, but calculation of economic efficiency of modernization, but also receive the information about quality and timeliness also receive the information about quality and timeliness of meteorological services given on today.of meteorological services given on today.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (6)(6)

The estimation of key parameters was carried out in two The estimation of key parameters was carried out in two stages. At the first stage was lead the expert estimation stages. At the first stage was lead the expert estimation of parameters on separate branches of economy. At the of parameters on separate branches of economy. At the second stage, using an average estimation, was second stage, using an average estimation, was calculated average values of basic factors Ri·Si for DHP,calculated average values of basic factors Ri·Si for DHP,

Ri·Si for ACW andRi·Si for ACW and Δi, necessary for an integrated Δi, necessary for an integrated estimation of economic efficiency of modernization of estimation of economic efficiency of modernization of NHMS.NHMS.

According to presented report of NHMS the annual direct According to presented report of NHMS the annual direct economic losses on the country for 1995-2004 are Veconomic losses on the country for 1995-2004 are VDHPDHP = = 95,23 million GEL ($47,6 million), annual indirect 95,23 million GEL ($47,6 million), annual indirect economic losses –economic losses – VVACWACW = 42,49 million Lari ($21,25 = 42,49 million Lari ($21,25 million). This statistics is confirmed by the economy million). This statistics is confirmed by the economy branches experts independent estimations who branches experts independent estimations who participated in the present assessment.participated in the present assessment.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (7)(7)

Improvement of quality and preliminary of Improvement of quality and preliminary of hydrometeorological forecasts will allow to reduce the hydrometeorological forecasts will allow to reduce the losses, caused by DHP and ACW, approximately to 15,1 % losses, caused by DHP and ACW, approximately to 15,1 % for direct and 12,9 % for indirect economic losses. The for direct and 12,9 % for indirect economic losses. The most sensitive to modernization in both cases fined out a most sensitive to modernization in both cases fined out a municipal services where the losses will reduce up to 22,1 municipal services where the losses will reduce up to 22,1 % and 19,9 % accordingly;% and 19,9 % accordingly;

As a result of improvement of quality and preliminary of As a result of improvement of quality and preliminary of hydrometeorological information, the users for protective hydrometeorological information, the users for protective actions and liquidation of negative impacts of DHP and actions and liquidation of negative impacts of DHP and ACW will spend on economy 12,8 % less;ACW will spend on economy 12,8 % less;

The Integrated results have shown, that for average The Integrated results have shown, that for average losses - $28,25-47,6 and $21,25 million annual economic losses - $28,25-47,6 and $21,25 million annual economic benefit of modernization can make 14,92 - 20,77 million benefit of modernization can make 14,92 - 20,77 million Lari ($7,45 - $10,38 million) accordingly.Lari ($7,45 - $10,38 million) accordingly.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (8)(8)

Assuming, that this mean annual economic benefit will Assuming, that this mean annual economic benefit will be provided within 7 years after modernization, total be provided within 7 years after modernization, total potential benefits can achieve from 52,15 up to 72,66 potential benefits can achieve from 52,15 up to 72,66 million USD. It means, that economic feasibility (economic million USD. It means, that economic feasibility (economic efficiency) of modernization (at cost $7 million) efficiency) of modernization (at cost $7 million) approximately makes 1:7,5 - 1:10,4. Another words, each approximately makes 1:7,5 - 1:10,4. Another words, each dollar directed on modernization of NHMS of Georgia, can dollar directed on modernization of NHMS of Georgia, can bring 7,5-10,4 USD of benefit to economy.bring 7,5-10,4 USD of benefit to economy.

The used methodology supposes an estimation only for The used methodology supposes an estimation only for the direct effect, basically expressed, in reduction of the direct effect, basically expressed, in reduction of losses from the dangerous hydrometeorological losses from the dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena and adverse conditions of weather. The given phenomena and adverse conditions of weather. The given assessment does not consist the additional social and assessment does not consist the additional social and economic effect connected with Private sector of economic effect connected with Private sector of economic. In this connection, the received results is economic. In this connection, the received results is possible to consider as “estimation from below”; The real possible to consider as “estimation from below”; The real economic benefit can be much more significant.economic benefit can be much more significant.

Thank you for your Thank you for your AAtttteention!ntion!