working group on nephrops stocks - data appendix (wgneph). … reports/expert group... · 2013. 2....

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Advisory Committee on Fishery Management ICES CM 2003/ACFM:18 DRAFT Report of the Working Group on Nephrops Stocks Galway, Ireland 19–27 March 2003 Data Appendix This report is not to be quoted without prior consultation with the General Secretary. The document is a report of an expert group under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of the Council. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer Palægade 2–4 DK–1261 Copenhagen K Denmark

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Page 1: Working Group on Nephrops Stocks - Data Appendix (WGNEPH). … Reports/Expert Group... · 2013. 2. 4. · Advisory Committee on Fishery Management ICES CM 2003/ACFM:18 DRAFT Report

Advisory Committee on Fishery Management ICES CM 2003/ACFM:18

DRAFT

Report of the

Working Group on Nephrops Stocks

Galway, Ireland 19–27 March 2003

Data Appendix

This report is not to be quoted without prior consultation with the General Secretary. The document is a report of an expert group under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of the Council.

International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer

Palægade 2–4 DK–1261 Copenhagen K Denmark

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Management Area E Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Run title : IIIA COM Input INDEX FILE

At 22/03/2003 16:53

Table 1 Catch numbers at age Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 40697 80963 70346 259864 70914 408425 47498 226196 26005 126267 15389 78348 8568 6008

+gp 15337 136810 TOTAL 294754 137692 TONSLA 9432 5435 SOPCO 98 98 Table 1 Catch numbers at age Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 78264 85730 68579 4513 2640 2119 5274 28864 9295 68293 141047 112276 107742 31562 24420 21228 34934 125162 35784 342254 120680 98472 65202 40429 61568 43977 63544 60983 51119 655165 58104 51647 41435 31232 41158 37343 53876 38740 36587 460016 21318 17620 19203 18282 25929 27277 34820 24197 27111 248587 10465 6086 9931 11980 16128 17307 18455 18037 18247 159248 6671 2297 4877 5420 7949 8694 9390 12229 11489 10990

+gp 11741 5322 6871 10798 13023 13138 11420 23969 17506 160310 TOTAL 448290 379450 323840 154216 192815 171083 231713 332181 207138 220374 TONSLA 11702 9324 7891 6127 7675 6988 9051 10367 7822 8752 SOPCO 94 91 88 95 92 84 91 91 97 96

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Table 2 Catch weights at age (kg) YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0.011 0.0113 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.0315 0.04 0.0436 0.048 0.0517 0.055 0.0588 0.06 0.064

+gp 0.077 0.0850 SOPCO 0.9824 0.9847

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 2 Catch weights at age (kg) YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.0133 0.02 0.019 0.019 0.02 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.02 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.031 0.029 0.031 0.031 0.032 0.031 0.029 0.029 0.0325 0.039 0.04 0.04 0.044 0.041 0.044 0.04 0.038 0.038 0.0426 0.047 0.054 0.052 0.055 0.054 0.057 0.051 0.05 0.044 0.0497 0.052 0.061 0.06 0.067 0.068 0.071 0.068 0.058 0.052 0.0578 0.058 0.069 0.068 0.074 0.08 0.084 0.083 0.067 0.06 0.064

+gp 0.082 0.087 0.086 0.084 0.085 0.1 0.106 0.091 0.088 0.0880 SOPCO 0.9421 0.9119 0.8831 0.9523 0.9158 0.8367 0.9099 0.9113 0.968 0.9643

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Table 3 Stock weights at age (kg) YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0.011 0.0113 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.0315 0.04 0.0436 0.048 0.0517 0.055 0.0588 0.06 0.064

+gp 0.077 0.085

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 3 Stock weights at age (kg) YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.0133 0.02 0.019 0.019 0.02 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.02 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.031 0.029 0.031 0.031 0.032 0.031 0.029 0.029 0.0325 0.039 0.04 0.04 0.044 0.041 0.044 0.04 0.038 0.038 0.0426 0.047 0.054 0.052 0.055 0.054 0.057 0.051 0.05 0.044 0.0497 0.052 0.061 0.06 0.067 0.068 0.071 0.068 0.058 0.052 0.0578 0.058 0.069 0.068 0.074 0.08 0.084 0.083 0.067 0.06 0.064

+gp 0.082 0.087 0.086 0.084 0.085 0.1 0.106 0.091 0.088 0.0881

Run title : IIIA COM Input INDEX FILE

At 22/03/2003 16:53

Table 4 Natural Mortality (M) at age YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0.3 0.33 0.25 0.254 0.25 0.255 0.25 0.256 0.25 0.257 0.25 0.258 0.25 0.25

+gp 0.25 0.25

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 4 Natural Mortality (M) at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.33 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.254 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.255 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.256 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.257 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.258 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

+gp 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.251

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Table 5 Proportion mature at age YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0.5 0.53 1 14 1 15 1 16 1 17 1 18 1 1

+gp 1 1

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 5 Proportion mature at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.53 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 18 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

+gp 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE

At 22/03/2003 16:53

Table 6 Proportion of M before Spawning YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 0

+gp 0 0

0.5

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 6 Proportion of M before Spawning YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+gp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01

Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE

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Table 7 Proportion of F before Spawning YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 0

+gp 0 0

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 7 Proportion of F before Spawning YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+gp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01

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Table 8 Fishing mortality (F) at age YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0.0629 0.01083 0.2034 0.05624 0.4291 0.18415 0.5942 0.24786 0.4644 0.32447 0.414 0.25958 0.4223 0.2971

+gp 0.4223 0.29710 FBAR 3- 8 0.4212 0.2282 Table 8 Fishing mortality (F) at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 FBAR **-**

AGE2 0.1128 0.1228 0.1077 0.0082 0.0051 0.0042 0.0082 0.048 0.0173 0.0119 0.02573 0.2869 0.2555 0.2435 0.0714 0.0605 0.0556 0.0957 0.2992 0.0837 0.0886 0.15714 0.4223 0.3536 0.2447 0.1425 0.205 0.1558 0.2481 0.2551 0.202 0.2296 0.22895 0.4607 0.3408 0.2603 0.1869 0.2235 0.1951 0.3081 0.249 0.2535 0.2993 0.26726 0.4159 0.2586 0.2155 0.1845 0.2473 0.2397 0.2983 0.2333 0.2931 0.2899 0.27217 0.524 0.2096 0.2402 0.214 0.2607 0.2751 0.2682 0.2629 0.2936 0.2968 0.28448 0.3916 0.2158 0.2743 0.2111 0.2272 0.2308 0.2492 0.3035 0.2823 0.3064 0.2974

+gp 0.3916 0.2158 0.2743 0.2111 0.2272 0.2308 0.2492 0.3035 0.2823 0.30640 FBAR 3- 8 0.4169 0.2723 0.2464 0.1684 0.204 0.192 0.2446 0.2672 0.2347 0.2518

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE

At 22/03/2003 16:53

Table 9 Relative F at age YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 0.1494 0.04743 0.4828 0.24614 1.0187 0.80665 1.4108 1.08596 1.1024 1.42177 0.9828 1.13758 1.0025 1.3022

+gp 1.0025 1.30220 REFMEAN 0.4212 0.2282 Table 9 Relative F at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 MEAN **-**

AGE2 0.2705 0.4509 0.4372 0.0487 0.025 0.0219 0.0337 0.1797 0.0739 0.0471 0.10023 0.6881 0.9382 0.9883 0.424 0.2966 0.2895 0.3914 1.1199 0.3565 0.3518 0.60944 1.013 1.2986 0.993 0.8465 1.0049 0.8113 1.0141 0.955 0.8608 0.912 0.90935 1.105 1.2515 1.0563 1.1101 1.0953 1.0161 1.2595 0.9319 1.08 1.1888 1.06696 0.9976 0.9496 0.8744 1.0954 1.2122 1.2482 1.2195 0.8732 1.2488 1.1515 1.09127 1.2568 0.7696 0.9749 1.2705 1.2775 1.4328 1.0966 0.984 1.251 1.179 1.1388 0.9393 0.7925 1.1131 1.2534 1.1136 1.2022 1.0189 1.136 1.2028 1.2169 1.1852

+gp 0.9393 0.7925 1.1131 1.2534 1.1136 1.2022 1.0189 1.136 1.2028 1.21690 REFMEAN 0.4169 0.2723 0.2464 0.1684 0.204 0.192 0.2446 0.2672 0.2347 0.2518

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Table 10 Stock number at age (start of year) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 775085 8744983 433201 5391694 230317 2752975 120133 1167906 79329 516437 51444 388328 28187 26484

+gp 49887 597800 TOTAL 1767584 1982493

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 10 Stock number at age (start of year) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 GMST 91-** AMST 91-**

AGE2 852662 862084 780202 641407 603627 587782 746467 715460 628440 673194 0 736947 7439283 640876 564305 564859 518962 471281 444905 433616 548457 505182 457559 492875 511867 5159634 396973 374641 340398 344831 376314 345484 327759 306871 316684 361857 326172 328140 3318895 178359 202663 204869 207562 232876 238740 230253 199182 185174 201521 224021 187943 1931436 70995 87629 112256 122986 134087 145042 152976 131776 120935 111926 116367 103270 1088727 29077 36478 52696 70478 79648 81545 88887 88409 81274 70259 65243 57595 617498 23329 13410 23038 32276 44316 47797 48234 52939 52936 47193 40673 31425 34001

+gp 40622 30851 32189 63854 72075 71696 58207 102842 79980 68226 661750 TOTAL 2232892 2172061 2110508 2002355 2014224 1962992 2086400 2145936 1970604 1991735 1331526

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Table 11 Spawning stock number at age (spawning time) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 387543 4372493 433201 5391694 230317 2752975 120133 1167906 79329 516437 51444 388328 28187 26484

+gp 49887 59780

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 11 Spawning stock number at age (spawning time) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 426331 431042 390101 320703 301813 293891 373234 357730 314220 3365973 640876 564305 564859 518962 471281 444905 433616 548457 505182 4575594 396973 374641 340398 344831 376314 345484 327759 306871 316684 3618575 178359 202663 204869 207562 232876 238740 230253 199182 185174 2015216 70995 87629 112256 122986 134087 145042 152976 131776 120935 1119267 29077 36478 52696 70478 79648 81545 88887 88409 81274 702598 23329 13410 23038 32276 44316 47797 48234 52939 52936 47193

+gp 40622 30851 32189 63854 72075 71696 58207 102842 79980 682261

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Table 12 Stock biomass at age (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 8526 96193 8664 113234 6679 85345 4805 50226 3808 26347 2829 22528 1691 1695

+gp 3841 50810 TOTALBIO 40844 46161

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 12 Stock biomass at age (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 10232 10345 9362 8338 7244 7641 9704 9301 8170 87523 12818 10722 10732 10379 9897 9343 9106 10969 10104 96094 11512 11614 9872 10690 11666 11055 10161 8899 9184 115795 6956 8107 8195 9133 9548 10505 9210 7569 7037 84646 3337 4732 5837 6764 7241 8267 7802 6589 5321 54847 1512 2225 3162 4722 5416 5790 6044 5128 4226 40058 1353 925 1567 2388 3545 4015 4003 3547 3176 3020

+gp 3331 2684 2768 5364 6126 7170 6170 9359 7038 60040 TOTALBIO 51051 51354 51495 57778 60682 63786 62200 61360 54256 56917

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Table 13 Spawning stock biomass at age (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 4263 48103 8664 113234 6679 85345 4805 50226 3808 26347 2829 22528 1691 1695

+gp 3841 50810 TOTSPBIO 36581 41351 Table 13 Spawning stock biomass at age (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 5116 5173 4681 4169 3622 3821 4852 4650 4085 43763 12818 10722 10732 10379 9897 9343 9106 10969 10104 96094 11512 11614 9872 10690 11666 11055 10161 8899 9184 115795 6956 8107 8195 9133 9548 10505 9210 7569 7037 84646 3337 4732 5837 6764 7241 8267 7802 6589 5321 54847 1512 2225 3162 4722 5416 5790 6044 5128 4226 40058 1353 925 1567 2388 3545 4015 4003 3547 3176 3020

+gp 3331 2684 2768 5364 6126 7170 6170 9359 7038 60040 TOTSPBIO 45935 46181 46814 53609 57061 59965 57348 56710 50171 52541

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE

At 22/03/2003 16:53

Table 14 Stock biomass at age with SOP (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 8376 94733 8512 111504 6562 84045 4721 49456 3741 25947 2780 22188 1662 1669

+gp 3774 50040 TOTALBIO 40127 45457 Table 14 Stock biomass at age with SOP (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 9639 9434 8268 7941 6634 6394 8829 8476 7908 84393 12075 9777 9478 9884 9064 7818 8285 9997 9780 92664 10845 10591 8718 10180 10684 9251 9245 8110 8890 111665 6553 7392 7237 8697 8744 8790 8380 6898 6811 81626 3143 4315 5155 6442 6631 6918 7098 6005 5151 52897 1424 2029 2792 4497 4960 4845 5499 4673 4091 38628 1275 844 1383 2275 3247 3359 3643 3232 3074 2913

+gp 3138 2448 2445 5108 5611 5999 5614 8529 6813 57900 TOTALBIO 48093 46830 45477 55024 55575 53373 56593 55920 52517 54886

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE

At 22/03/2003 16:53

Table 15 Spawning stock biomass with SOP (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992

AGE2 4188 47363 8512 111504 6562 84045 4721 49456 3741 25947 2780 22188 1662 1669

+gp 3774 50040 TOTSPBIO 35939 40720 Table 15 Spawning stock biomass with SOP (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

AGE2 4820 4717 4134 3970 3317 3197 4415 4238 3954 42203 12075 9777 9478 9884 9064 7818 8285 9997 9780 92664 10845 10591 8718 10180 10684 9251 9245 8110 8890 111665 6553 7392 7237 8697 8744 8790 8380 6898 6811 81626 3143 4315 5155 6442 6631 6918 7098 6005 5151 52897 1424 2029 2792 4497 4960 4845 5499 4673 4091 38628 1275 844 1383 2275 3247 3359 3643 3232 3074 2913

+gp 3138 2448 2445 5108 5611 5999 5614 8529 6813 57900 TOTSPBIO 43273 42113 41343 51054 52258 50176 52178 51682 48563 50666

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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE At 22/03/2003 16:53

Table 16 Summary (without SOP correction)

REC TOTALB TOTSPB LANDING YIELD/SS FBAR 3- 8 Age 2

1991 775085 40844 36581 9432 0.2578 0.42121992 874498 46161 41351 5435 0.1314 0.22821993 852662 51051 45935 11702 0.2548 0.41691994 862084 51354 46181 9324 0.2019 0.27231995 780202 51495 46814 7891 0.1686 0.24641996 641407 57778 53609 6127 0.1143 0.16841997 603627 60682 57061 7675 0.1345 0.2041998 587782 63786 59965 6988 0.1165 0.1921999 746467 62200 57348 9051 0.1578 0.24462000 715460 61360 56710 10367 0.1828 0.26722001 628440 54256 50171 7822 0.1559 0.23472002 673194 56917 52541 8752 0.1666 0.2518

Arith. Mean 728409 54824 50356 8381 0.1702 0.26230 Units (Thousan (Tonnes (Tonnes (Tonnes)

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Table 17 Summary (with SOP correction)

REC TOTALB TOTSPB LANDING YIELD/SS SOPCOF FBAR 3- 8 Age 2

1991 775085 40127 35939 9432 0.2624 0.9824 0.42121992 874498 45457 40720 5435 0.1335 0.9847 0.22821993 852662 48093 43273 11702 0.2704 0.9421 0.41691994 862084 46830 42113 9324 0.2214 0.9119 0.27231995 780202 45477 41343 7891 0.1909 0.8831 0.24641996 641407 55024 51054 6127 0.12 0.9523 0.16841997 603627 55575 52258 7675 0.1469 0.9158 0.2041998 587782 53373 50176 6988 0.1393 0.8367 0.1921999 746467 56593 52178 9051 0.1735 0.9099 0.24462000 715460 55920 51682 10367 0.2006 0.9113 0.26722001 628440 52517 48563 7822 0.1611 0.968 0.23472002 673194 54886 50666 8752 0.1727 0.9643 0.2518

Arith. Mean 728409 50823 46664 8381 .1827 .26230 Units (Thousan (Tonnes (Tonnes (Tonnes)

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Management Area F Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 14:24

Extended Survivors Analysis

males INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 25 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0 0.005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.021 0.018 0.204 0.027 0.049 0.034 0.019 0.016 0.018 0.0553 0.31 0.144 0.292 0.349 0.313 0.149 0.159 0.225 0.256 0.144 0.717 0.43 0.455 0.672 0.533 0.327 0.311 0.508 0.658 0.3185 1.026 0.721 0.585 0.672 0.78 0.375 0.373 0.622 0.666 0.4296 0.881 0.766 0.619 0.619 0.844 0.378 0.328 0.55 0.59 0.5017 0.799 0.738 0.632 0.63 0.87 0.387 0.343 0.474 0.52 0.5998 0.698 0.799 0.476 0.577 0.627 0.467 0.352 0.627 0.443 0.6759 0.703 0.728 0.421 0.526 0.64 0.524 0.506 0.904 0.801 0.815

002

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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 1.34E+05 7.32E+04 4.07E+04 2.87E+04 1.75E+04 6.54E+03 2.39E+03 8.81E+02 2.64E+021994 1.47E+05 9.90E+04 5.31E+04 2.21E+04 1.04E+04 4.65E+03 2.01E+03 7.95E+02 3.25E+021995 1.23E+05 1.09E+05 7.21E+04 3.41E+04 1.07E+04 3.74E+03 1.60E+03 7.10E+02 2.65E+021996 1.25E+05 9.08E+04 6.58E+04 3.99E+04 1.60E+04 4.40E+03 1.49E+03 6.30E+02 3.27E+021997 1.13E+05 9.24E+04 6.54E+04 3.44E+04 1.51E+04 6.05E+03 1.75E+03 5.89E+02 2.62E+021998 1.08E+05 8.35E+04 6.52E+04 3.54E+04 1.50E+04 5.13E+03 1.93E+03 5.44E+02 2.33E+021999 9.38E+04 8.02E+04 5.98E+04 4.16E+04 1.89E+04 7.61E+03 2.60E+03 9.70E+02 2.53E+022000 9.46E+04 6.95E+04 5.83E+04 3.78E+04 2.26E+04 9.66E+03 4.06E+03 1.37E+03 5.05E+022001 1.26E+05 7.00E+04 5.07E+04 3.45E+04 1.68E+04 8.98E+03 4.13E+03 1.87E+03 5.42E+022002 1.27E+05 9.30E+04 5.10E+04 2.91E+04 1.32E+04 6.41E+03 3.69E+03 1.82E+03 8.91E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 9.38E+04 6.52E+04 3.28E+04 1.57E+04 6.38E+03 2.88E+03 1.50E+03 6.85E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.18E+05 8.80E+04 6.29E+04 3.66E+04 1.62E+04 6.25E+03 2.40E+03 8.85E+02 3.26E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.2096 0.2345 0.2406 0.2302 0.2376 0.2926 0.3907 0.5054 0.53041

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.47 -0.54 -0.49 -0.54 -0.46 -0.33 -0.28 0.08 0.43 0.152 -0.12 -0.33 -0.36 -0.33 -0.44 -0.34 -0.24 -0.26 0.14 0.43 0.34 0.63 0.44 0.59 0 -0.03 0.18 -0.22 0.26 0.514 0.29 0.46 0.23 0.03 -0.26 -0.06 0.08 -0.02 -0.03 0.275 0.28 0.46 0.15 -0.24 -0.43 -0.44 0.05 0.05 -0.06 0.396 0.56 0.52 0.03 -0.21 -0.58 -0.47 0.41 0.02 -0.25 0.237 0.63 0.91 -0.08 -0.23 -0.44 -0.84 0.6 0.13 -0.08 0.158 0.24 0.73 0.29 -0.5 0.26 -1.16 0.56 0.21 -0.27 -0.019 0 -0.02 -0.12 -0.08 0.17 -0.03 0.68 0 -0.07 0.1

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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 -0.24 -0.2 0.05 -0.09 -0.02 0.1 0.22 0.14 -0.06 02 0.04 -0.24 0.15 -0.06 -0.02 0.05 0 0.05 0.07 0.063 0.13 -0.69 0.49 0.45 0.09 -0.35 -0.24 -0.14 0.01 -0.324 0.25 -0.31 0.22 0.39 -0.09 -0.28 -0.28 -0.04 0.24 -0.215 0.39 -0.02 0.26 0.18 0.07 -0.35 -0.31 -0.05 0.03 -0.136 0.24 0.04 0.32 0.1 0.15 -0.35 -0.44 -0.17 -0.08 0.037 0.15 0.01 0.34 0.12 0.18 -0.32 -0.39 -0.32 -0.21 0.28 0.01 0.09 0.06 0.03 -0.14 -0.14 -0.36 -0.05 -0.37 0.329 0.02 -0.01 -0.07 -0.06 -0.12 -0.02 -0.01 0.31 0.22 0.51

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -5.3791 -4.6725 -4.459 -4.459 -4.459 -4.459 -4.459 S.E(Log q) 0.3577 0.2414 0.2423 0.2659 0.3041 0.3066 0.2353

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.03 -35.671 11.7 0.08 20 0.21 -12.732 0.16 -13.926 10.71 0.42 20 0.19 -7.26

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 0.35 -5.873 9.06 0.5 20 0.18 -5.384 0.48 -4.176 7.7 0.6 20 0.15 -4.675 0.49 -2.963 7.13 0.44 20 0.19 -4.466 0.58 -1.874 6.28 0.4 20 0.24 -4.497 0.68 -1.525 5.54 0.51 20 0.29 -4.498 0.73 -2.03 5.13 0.75 20 0.27 -4.529 0.73 -6.633 4.75 0.97 20 0.1 -4.371

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 93841 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.002

P shrinka 88050 0.23 0 0.002

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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

93841 0.3 0 1 0 0.002

1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 65239 0.212 0.056 0.26 2 1 0.055

P shrinkage me 62879 0.24 0 0.057

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

65239 0.21 0.06 2 0.263 0.055

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 32815 0.184 0.132 0.72 3 1 0.14

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

32815 0.18 0.13 3 0.715 0.14

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15670 0.159 0.096 0.61 4 1 0.318

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

15670 0.16 0.1 4 0.608 0.318

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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6377 0.152 0.072 0.48 5 1 0.429

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

6377 0.15 0.07 5 0.478 0.429

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2878 0.149 0.031 0.21 6 1 0.501

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2878 0.15 0.03 6 0.21 0.501

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1501 0.148 0.071 0.48 7 1 0.599

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1501 0.15 0.07 7 0.482 0.599

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 685 0.147 0.097 0.66 8 1 0.675

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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

685 0.15 0.1 8 0.66 0.675

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 292 0.144 0.147 1.02 9 1 0.815

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

292 0.14 0.15 9 1.019 0.815

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

21/03/2003 18:02

Extended Survivors Analysis

females INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4

Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00518

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 29 0.0023 0.0614 0.0404 0.061 0.0856 0.1059 0.1402 0.1736 0.2148 0.2306 Iteration 30 0.0023 0.0614 0.0404 0.061 0.0855 0.1058 0.14 0.1734 0.2145 0.2301

Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.2505 0.3986 0.3704 Iteration 30 0.2498 0.3971 0.369

10

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0.001 0.005 0 0 0.001 0 0 0 0.2 0.014 0.023 0.211 0.027 0.053 0.04 0.023 0.026 0.017 0.0613 0.06 0.055 0.085 0.101 0.104 0.058 0.046 0.07 0.048 0.044 0.109 0.089 0.078 0.151 0.139 0.069 0.062 0.104 0.074 0.0615 0.183 0.157 0.104 0.176 0.158 0.098 0.079 0.135 0.109 0.0866 0.221 0.294 0.118 0.202 0.161 0.121 0.096 0.166 0.151 0.1067 0.283 0.414 0.157 0.191 0.171 0.134 0.106 0.219 0.195 0.148 0.283 0.528 0.219 0.219 0.148 0.135 0.123 0.226 0.156 0.1739 0.313 0.551 0.323 0.249 0.219 0.152 0.169 0.262 0.177 0.214

10 0.295 0.492 0.372 0.315 0.234 0.211 0.18 0.32 0.22 0.2311 0.323 0.436 0.379 0.316 0.358 0.204 0.173 0.344 0.221 0.2512 0.62 0.489 0.493 0.376 0.464 0.357 0.136 0.699 0.23 0.39713 0.627 0.579 0.361 0.332 0.373 0.268 0.246 0.497 0.353 0.369

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 1.62E+05 1.16E+05 7.57E+04 5.90E+04 4.34E+04 3.86E+04 3.03E+04 2.37E+04 1.70E+04 1.11E+041994 1.79E+05 1.20E+05 8.47E+04 5.84E+04 4.33E+04 2.96E+04 2.54E+04 1.87E+04 1.46E+04 1.02E+041995 1.42E+05 1.33E+05 8.70E+04 6.56E+04 4.37E+04 3.03E+04 1.81E+04 1.37E+04 9.03E+03 6.90E+031996 1.36E+05 1.05E+05 7.96E+04 6.55E+04 4.97E+04 3.23E+04 2.20E+04 1.26E+04 9.04E+03 5.35E+031997 1.30E+05 1.01E+05 7.55E+04 5.89E+04 4.61E+04 3.41E+04 2.16E+04 1.49E+04 8.32E+03 5.77E+031998 1.23E+05 9.65E+04 7.09E+04 5.57E+04 4.20E+04 3.22E+04 2.38E+04 1.49E+04 1.05E+04 5.47E+031999 1.29E+05 9.11E+04 6.87E+04 5.47E+04 4.26E+04 3.12E+04 2.34E+04 1.70E+04 1.07E+04 7.40E+032000 1.38E+05 9.59E+04 6.60E+04 5.37E+04 4.21E+04 3.22E+04 2.32E+04 1.72E+04 1.23E+04 7.37E+032001 1.52E+05 1.02E+05 6.92E+04 5.03E+04 3.96E+04 3.01E+04 2.24E+04 1.53E+04 1.12E+04 7.76E+032002 1.53E+05 1.13E+05 7.43E+04 5.40E+04 3.83E+04 2.91E+04 2.12E+04 1.51E+04 1.07E+04 7.71E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.13E+05 7.86E+04 5.85E+04 4.17E+04 2.88E+04 2.14E+04 1.51E+04 1.04E+04 7.07E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.48E+05 1.11E+05 7.91E+04 6.11E+04 4.63E+04 3.42E+04 2.44E+04 1.68E+04 1.14E+04 7.35E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1415 0.1613 0.1639 0.168 0.1664 0.1624 0.178 0.1962 0.2181 0.2318

002

10

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13

1993 7.65E+03 3.94E+03 1.75E+031994 6.76E+03 4.53E+03 1.73E+031995 5.10E+03 3.58E+03 2.28E+031996 3.89E+03 2.86E+03 1.79E+031997 3.20E+03 2.32E+03 1.61E+031998 3.74E+03 1.83E+03 1.20E+031999 3.63E+03 2.49E+03 1.05E+032000 5.07E+03 2.50E+03 1.78E+032001 4.38E+03 2.94E+03 1.02E+032002 5.10E+03 2.88E+03 1.91E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

5.02E+03 3.26E+03 1.59E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

4.58E+03 2.77E+03 1.46E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.2453 0.2526 0.30611

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99

Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.37 -0.45 -0.45 -0.45 -0.38 -0.27 -0.07 -0.02 0.05 -0.072 -0.14 -0.31 -0.36 -0.35 -0.4 -0.33 -0.24 -0.05 0.04 0.023 0.03 -0.12 -0.22 -0.16 -0.34 -0.38 -0.31 -0.14 0.13 0.054 0.25 0.03 0.31 0.47 -0.34 -0.37 -0.32 0.11 0.4 0.025 0.27 0.06 0.32 0.39 -0.48 -0.38 -0.45 -0.06 0.22 -0.226 0.31 0.04 0.36 0.31 -0.44 -0.37 -0.59 -0.13 -0.02 -0.257 0.46 -0.14 0.25 0.12 -0.34 -0.25 -0.78 -0.16 -0.44 -0.238 0.6 0.06 0.18 0.01 -0.26 -0.07 -0.78 -0.28 -0.53 -0.279 0.67 0.05 0.21 -0.11 -0.35 0.03 -0.71 -0.11 -0.67 -0.28

10 0.28 -0.02 0.07 0 -0.62 -0.1 -0.75 0.09 -0.76 -0.4211 0.56 -0.18 0.25 0.13 -0.5 -0.3 -0.53 0.48 -0.64 -0.412 0.62 0.06 -0.05 0.46 -0.48 -0.11 -0.64 0.67 -0.39 -0.3113 0 -0.02 -0.02 0.02 -0.07 0.07 0.1 0.28 0.01 0.09

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 -0.13 -0.18 0.09 0.06 0.1 0.2 0.13 0.04 -0.05 02 -0.15 -0.14 0.04 0.02 0.1 0.14 0.14 0.08 -0.01 0.053 -0.03 -0.15 0.04 0.1 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.12 0 -0.034 0.04 -0.22 0.13 0.57 0.24 -0.17 -0.22 0.05 -0.27 -0.25 0.29 0.08 0.14 0.46 0.1 -0.09 -0.25 0.04 -0.16 -0.136 0.28 0.51 0.08 0.4 -0.08 -0.07 -0.25 0.05 -0.03 -0.117 0.38 0.7 0.21 0.19 -0.17 -0.12 -0.3 0.17 0.08 0.028 0.32 0.88 0.48 0.26 -0.37 -0.18 -0.21 0.14 -0.21 0.9 0.22 0.72 0.67 0.19 -0.19 -0.26 -0.1 0.09 -0.28 0.18

10 0.05 0.5 0.7 0.32 -0.23 -0.04 -0.15 0.18 -0.17 0.1411 0.05 0.29 0.63 0.23 0.11 -0.16 -0.27 0.16 -0.26 0.1412 0.37 0.07 0.56 0.08 0.04 0.07 -0.84 0.54 -0.55 0.2713 0.38 0.24 0.25 -0.05 -0.18 -0.21 -0.25 0.2 -0.12 0.2

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mean Log q -6.3293 -6.0609 -5.867 -5.7134 -5.6507 -5.449 -5.3439 -5.2544 -4.9256 -4.9256 S.E(Log q) 0.2753 0.2429 0.2679 0.3276 0.4002 0.3869 0.3847 0.3467 0.4617 0.2114

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.02 -39.262 11.91 0.03 20 0.15 -12.152 0.1 -18.185 11.17 0.29 20 0.14 -7.223 0.23 -8.179 10.2 0.37 20 0.14 -6.61

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

4 0.31 -6.172 9.55 0.44 20 0.13 -6.335 0.31 -4.465 9.29 0.28 20 0.15 -6.066 0.16 -4.391 9.7 0.07 20 0.16 -5.877 0.14 -5.121 9.51 0.06 20 0.18 -5.718 0.15 -6.077 9.1 0.11 20 0.19 -5.659 0.23 -5.509 8.44 0.22 20 0.2 -5.45

10 0.26 -5.232 7.96 0.26 20 0.21 -5.3411 0.36 -5.333 7.28 0.48 20 0.19 -5.2512 0.27 -6.586 7.12 0.37 20 0.21 -4.9313 0.62 -5.253 5.8 0.88 20 0.11 -4.88

17

13

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 113233 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.002

P shrinkage m 110683 0.16 0 0.002

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

113233 0.3 0 1 0 0.002

1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 78576 0.212 0.053 0.25 2 1 0.061

P shrinkage m 79083 0.16 0 0.061

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

78576 0.21 0.05 2 0.251 0.061

Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 58453 0.173 0.022 0.13 3 1 0.04

P shrinkage m 61064 0.17 0 0.039

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

58453 0.17 0.02 3 0.128 0.04

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 41663 0.15 0.073 0.49 4 1 0.061

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

41663 0.15 0.07 4 0.486 0.061

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 28796 0.135 0.091 0.67 5 1 0.085

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

28796 0.13 0.09 5 0.673 0.086

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 21440 0.124 0.049 0.4 6 1 0.106

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

21440 0.12 0.05 6 0.399 0.106

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15112 0.118 0.04 0.34 7 1 0.14

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

15112 0.12 0.04 7 0.336 0.14

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 10382 0.116 0.052 0.45 8 1 0.173

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

10382 0.12 0.05 8 0.445 0.173

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7069 0.116 0.064 0.55 9 1 0.214

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

7069 0.12 0.06 9 0.548 0.214

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5024 0.115 0.08 0.7 10 1 0.23

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

5024 0.12 0.08 10 0.698 0.23

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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1991

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3261 0.116 0.059 0.51 11 1 0.249

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

3261 0.12 0.06 11 0.507 0.25

1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1990

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1589 0.121 0.066 0.54 12 1 0.396

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1589 0.12 0.07 12 0.544 0.397

Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12

Year class = 1989

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1087 0.124 0.069 0.56 13 1 0.368

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1087 0.12 0.07 13 0.562 0.369

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Management Area I Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 12:23

Extended Survivors Analysis

FU6 FARN DEEPS MALESINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 18 years. 1985 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1985 2002 1 7 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 22 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001 0 0.003 0.005 0.004 0.018 0.0022 0.064 0.137 0.273 0.174 0.111 0.117 0.162 0.175 0.28 0.1223 0.387 0.504 0.54 0.656 0.481 0.386 0.548 0.544 0.628 0.3444 0.615 0.7 0.599 0.668 0.496 0.487 0.525 0.456 0.576 0.3845 0.768 0.859 0.652 0.689 0.438 0.518 0.655 0.464 0.63 0.4066 0.766 1.003 0.501 0.623 0.43 0.437 0.75 0.45 0.763 0.4477 0.626 0.826 0.529 0.559 0.456 0.474 0.518 0.396 0.579 0.399

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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1993 3.28E+05 2.13E+05 1.28E+05 7.90E+04 3.89E+04 1.17E+04 2.20E+031994 3.56E+05 2.42E+05 1.48E+05 6.44E+04 3.16E+04 1.34E+04 4.02E+031995 2.94E+05 2.63E+05 1.57E+05 6.61E+04 2.37E+04 9.93E+03 3.64E+031996 2.82E+05 2.17E+05 1.49E+05 6.76E+04 2.69E+04 9.16E+03 4.46E+031997 3.20E+05 2.09E+05 1.35E+05 5.71E+04 2.57E+04 1.00E+04 3.64E+031998 3.28E+05 2.37E+05 1.38E+05 6.20E+04 2.58E+04 1.23E+04 4.83E+031999 3.68E+05 2.42E+05 1.56E+05 6.96E+04 2.82E+04 1.14E+04 5.87E+032000 3.69E+05 2.71E+05 1.53E+05 6.69E+04 3.05E+04 1.09E+04 3.98E+032001 3.13E+05 2.72E+05 1.69E+05 6.56E+04 3.14E+04 1.42E+04 5.13E+032002 3.15E+05 2.28E+05 1.52E+05 6.68E+04 2.73E+04 1.24E+04 4.91E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 2.33E+05 1.49E+05 7.99E+04 3.37E+04 1.35E+04 5.87E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

3.16E+05 2.31E+05 1.44E+05 6.36E+04 2.59E+04 9.87E+03 3.73E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1198 0.1327 0.116 0.1582 0.2437 0.3349 0.36051

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.38 -0.34 0.24 0.15 0.19 0.36 0.27 -0.072 0.38 -0.08 0.02 0.15 0.17 0 -0.03 -0.113 0.36 -0.52 0.07 0.29 0.17 -0.41 -0.67 -0.044 0.34 -0.15 0.04 0.12 0.23 -0.05 -0.2 0.115 0.18 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.16 -0.14 0.39 -0.046 -0.02 0.01 -0.04 0.21 -0.02 0.01 0.26 -0.087 0 0.01 -0.02 0 -0.08 -0.01 -0.03 -0.09

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.14 -0.12 -0.14 -0.1 -1.1 0.13 0.2 0.12 0.57 0.082 -0.23 -0.17 0.09 0.11 0.03 -0.02 0.03 -0.03 0.06 0.033 -0.37 -0.36 0.1 0.36 0.12 -0.01 0.23 0.2 0.19 -0.094 -0.05 -0.18 0.06 0.24 0.01 0.07 0.04 -0.12 -0.04 -0.125 0.16 0.03 0.15 0.27 -0.12 0.13 0.26 -0.1 0.05 -0.076 0.16 0.18 -0.11 0.17 -0.14 -0.03 0.4 -0.13 0.23 0.037 -0.04 -0.01 -0.06 0.06 -0.08 0.05 0.03 -0.26 -0.04 -0.08

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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -5.3121 -5.1681 -5.1681 -5.1681 -5.1681 S.E(Log q) 0.2854 0.1305 0.1768 0.187 0.0945

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.25 0.712 12.23 0.08 18 0.42 -10.932 0.3 2.742 10.59 0.61 18 0.11 -6.5

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 0.5 1.423 8.61 0.44 18 0.14 -5.314 0.94 0.228 5.5 0.62 18 0.13 -5.175 1.06 -0.304 4.76 0.69 18 0.17 -5.096 0.9 0.662 5.49 0.83 18 0.16 -5.17 0.96 0.646 5.34 0.96 18 0.08 -5.211

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 250901 0.438 0 0 1 0.084 0.002

P shrinkage mean 231044 0.13 0.916 0.002

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

232651 0.13 0.08 2 0.621 0.002

1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 180005 0.253 0.244 0.97 2 0.156 0.103

P shrinkage mean 144425 0.12 0.844 0.126

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

149489 0.11 0.16 3 1.501 0.122

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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 79937 0.193 0.06 0.31 3 1 0.344

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

79937 0.19 0.06 3 0.313 0.344

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 33703 0.173 0.08 0.46 4 1 0.384

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

33703 0.17 0.08 4 0.464 0.384

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 13478 0.162 0.048 0.29 5 1 0.406

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

13478 0.16 0.05 5 0.293 0.406

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5865 0.16 0.082 0.52 6 1 0.447

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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

5865 0.16 0.08 6 0.516 0.447

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2442 0.16 0.053 0.33 7 1 0.399

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2442 0.16 0.05 7 0.329 0.399

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 16:38

Extended Survivors Analysis

FU6 FARN DEEPS FEMALINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 18 years. 1985 to 2002. Ages 1 to 15.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1985 2002 1 14 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 2

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 7

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00087

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2

109 0.0015 0.0466 0.0412 0.0461 0.068 0.0851 0.0907 0.0817 0.0758 0.0684

Iteration 30 0.0015 0.0465 0.0412 0.0461 0.0679 0.085 0.0906 0.0817 0.0758 0.0683

Age 11 12 13 14 Iteration 29 0.0832 0.0671 0.0728 0.0989 Iteration 30 0.0831 0.067 0.0727 0.0988

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0 0.002 0.005 0.003 0.008 0.0012 0.041 0.126 0.191 0.105 0.051 0.055 0.066 0.081 0.135 0.0473 0.026 0.135 0.115 0.107 0.061 0.048 0.066 0.078 0.07 0.0414 0.034 0.181 0.131 0.122 0.082 0.054 0.067 0.064 0.081 0.0465 0.057 0.171 0.175 0.127 0.098 0.06 0.065 0.091 0.112 0.0686 0.073 0.148 0.212 0.168 0.122 0.091 0.081 0.105 0.156 0.0857 0.087 0.163 0.186 0.155 0.162 0.085 0.095 0.146 0.191 0.0918 0.092 0.205 0.159 0.116 0.173 0.1 0.11 0.143 0.18 0.0829 0.135 0.19 0.157 0.126 0.154 0.113 0.111 0.142 0.193 0.076

10 0.13 0.12 0.144 0.127 0.117 0.135 0.083 0.162 0.218 0.06811 0.145 0.146 0.126 0.128 0.094 0.151 0.072 0.145 0.204 0.08312 0.107 0.147 0.114 0.141 0.108 0.155 0.092 0.143 0.177 0.06713 0.099 0.25 0.112 0.156 0.111 0.163 0.126 0.13 0.177 0.07314 0.113 0.228 0.113 0.151 0.137 0.148 0.13 0.139 0.196 0.099

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 3.87E+05 2.67E+05 2.28E+05 1.90E+05 1.37E+05 8.83E+04 5.33E+04 3.30E+04 1.95E+04 1.28E+041994 3.79E+05 2.87E+05 2.10E+05 1.82E+05 1.50E+05 1.06E+05 6.72E+04 4.00E+04 2.46E+04 1.39E+041995 3.22E+05 2.80E+05 2.07E+05 1.50E+05 1.24E+05 1.04E+05 7.51E+04 4.67E+04 2.67E+04 1.67E+041996 3.23E+05 2.38E+05 1.90E+05 1.51E+05 1.08E+05 8.53E+04 6.87E+04 5.10E+04 3.26E+04 1.87E+041997 4.05E+05 2.39E+05 1.75E+05 1.39E+05 1.09E+05 7.78E+04 5.90E+04 4.82E+04 3.72E+04 2.35E+041998 5.03E+05 3.00E+05 1.86E+05 1.35E+05 1.05E+05 8.12E+04 5.64E+04 4.11E+04 3.32E+04 2.61E+041999 5.61E+05 3.72E+05 2.33E+05 1.45E+05 1.05E+05 8.10E+04 6.07E+04 4.24E+04 3.04E+04 2.43E+042000 5.18E+05 4.14E+05 2.85E+05 1.78E+05 1.11E+05 8.04E+04 6.12E+04 4.52E+04 3.11E+04 2.23E+042001 6.40E+05 3.83E+05 3.13E+05 2.16E+05 1.37E+05 8.30E+04 5.93E+04 4.33E+04 3.21E+04 2.21E+042002 4.09E+05 4.70E+05 2.74E+05 2.39E+05 1.63E+05 1.00E+05 5.81E+04 4.01E+04 2.96E+04 2.17E+04

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 3.02E+05 3.68E+05 2.15E+05 1.87E+05 1.25E+05 7.54E+04 4.35E+04 3.03E+04 2.25E+04

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

4.23E+05 3.08E+05 2.18E+05 1.60E+05 1.14E+05 8.03E+04 5.61E+04 3.89E+04 2.68E+04 1.84E+04

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.225 0.2358 0.2116 0.2273 0.2168 0.201 0.2004 0.2262 0.2625 0.2948

10

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13 14

1993 7.65E+03 4.89E+03 3.87E+03 2.97E+031994 9.17E+03 5.42E+03 3.60E+03 2.87E+031995 1.01E+04 6.49E+03 3.83E+03 2.29E+031996 1.18E+04 7.31E+03 4.74E+03 2.80E+031997 1.35E+04 8.51E+03 5.20E+03 3.32E+031998 1.71E+04 1.00E+04 6.26E+03 3.81E+031999 1.87E+04 1.21E+04 7.04E+03 4.35E+032000 1.83E+04 1.42E+04 9.02E+03 5.08E+032001 1.55E+04 1.29E+04 1.01E+04 6.48E+032002 1.45E+04 1.04E+04 8.87E+03 6.93E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

1.66E+04 1.10E+04 7.94E+03 6.76E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.25E+04 8.55E+03 5.92E+03 4.02E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.3273 0.3516 0.3501 0.3321

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.14 -0.53 0.54 0.2 0.14 0.19 0.12 -0.452 -0.23 -0.76 0.63 0.51 -0.26 0.29 0.13 -1.063 0.36 -0.71 0.54 0.73 0.3 -0.16 -0.74 -0.624 0.41 -0.17 0.67 0.55 0.24 -0.16 -0.84 -0.585 0.2 0.06 0.65 0.24 0.24 0.01 -1.08 -0.536 0.12 -0.1 0.4 -0.03 0.01 0.29 -0.55 -0.537 0.02 -0.16 0.15 0.18 0.24 0.52 -0.15 -0.268 -0.17 -0.07 0.06 0.11 0.24 0.74 0.04 -0.079 -0.14 -0.12 -0.18 0.2 0.3 0.65 0.18 -0.17

10 -0.13 -0.01 -0.01 0.08 0.35 0.7 0.53 0.1111 -0.14 0.37 -0.18 0.18 0.27 0.67 0.56 -0.0512 -0.28 0.22 -0.17 0.07 0.12 0.2 0.32 -0.1713 -0.23 0.14 -0.03 0.11 -0.03 0 0.08 -0.1214 0 0.11 -0.01 -0.04 -0.05 0.04 -0.07 -0.2

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.27 -0.1 0.19 0.12 99.99 -0.07 0.07 -0.07 0.09 -0.032 -0.78 0.08 0.89 0.36 -0.3 -0.15 -0.05 0.12 0.48 -0.273 -1.06 0.32 0.55 0.55 0.05 -0.1 0.11 0.25 -0.01 -0.224 -0.92 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.23 -0.11 0.01 -0.06 0.01 -0.225 -0.61 0.24 0.65 0.4 0.2 -0.19 -0.22 0.09 0.14 -0.036 -0.6 -0.14 0.61 0.44 0.18 -0.02 -0.24 -0.01 0.23 -0.057 -0.6 -0.22 0.3 0.19 0.3 -0.26 -0.26 0.16 0.26 -0.168 -0.54 0.01 0.15 -0.1 0.36 -0.1 -0.1 0.13 0.21 -0.269 -0.16 -0.06 0.14 -0.01 0.25 0.02 -0.1 0.13 0.27 -0.34

10 -0.19 -0.52 0.05 -0.01 -0.03 0.2 -0.38 0.26 0.4 -0.4411 -0.09 -0.33 -0.09 0 -0.25 0.31 -0.53 0.15 0.33 -0.2412 -0.39 -0.32 -0.19 0.1 -0.11 0.34 -0.29 0.13 0.19 -0.4613 -0.47 0.21 -0.2 0.2 -0.08 0.39 0.03 0.04 0.19 -0.3814 -0.33 0.12 -0.19 0.17 0.13 0.29 0.06 0.11 0.29 -0.07

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -7.1218 -7.2933 -7.1753 -6.9775 -6.737 -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 S.E(Log q) 0.4983 0.4764 0.4639 0.4242 0.3525 0.2985 0.2721 0.2344 0.3447 0.3282

Age 12 13 14 Mean Log q -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 S.E(Log q) 0.2732 0.2394 0.1885

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.31 2.451 12.24 0.58 17 0.21 -10.65 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

2 0.91 0.144 7.6 0.21 18 0.48 -7.123 2.08 -0.75 1.91 0.05 18 1.01 -7.294 2.28 -0.906 1.04 0.05 18 1.06 -7.185 0.83 0.334 7.77 0.28 18 0.37 -6.986 0.74 0.663 7.94 0.39 18 0.27 -6.747 0.87 0.321 7.14 0.38 18 0.27 -6.578 1.01 -0.015 6.52 0.41 18 0.29 -6.549 1.02 -0.089 6.43 0.56 18 0.25 -6.52

10 1.17 -0.403 5.97 0.35 18 0.42 -6.5411 1.07 -0.195 6.37 0.47 18 0.37 -6.5612 0.81 1.052 7.09 0.75 18 0.22 -6.6213 0.91 0.461 6.76 0.72 18 0.23 -6.5714 0.88 0.84 6.75 0.82 18 0.16 -6.531

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet

11

E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 292847 0.3 0 0 1 0.382 0.002

P shrinkage mean 308317 0.24 0.618 0.001

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

302320 0.19 0.04 2 0.218 0.001

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 367955 0.26 0.156 0.6 2 1 0.047

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

367955 0.26 0.16 2 0.602 0.047

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 215130 0.231 0.17 0.74 3 1 0.041

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

215130 0.23 0.17 3 0.736 0.041

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 186669 0.209 0.07 0.33 4 1 0.046

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

186669 0.21 0.07 4 0.334 0.046

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 124757 0.19 0.053 0.28 5 1 0.068

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

124757 0.19 0.05 5 0.281 0.068

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 75387 0.203 0.051 0.25 5 1 0.085

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

75387 0.2 0.05 5 0.253 0.085

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 43490 0.151 0.067 0.44 7 1 0.091

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

43490 0.15 0.07 7 0.444 0.091

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 30272 0.138 0.083 0.61 8 1 0.082

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

30272 0.14 0.08 8 0.605 0.082

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 22467 0.128 0.106 0.83 9 1 0.076

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

22467 0.13 0.11 9 0.825 0.076

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 16575 0.123 0.1 0.81 10 1 0.068

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

16575 0.12 0.1 10 0.813 0.068

Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1991

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 10962 0.12 0.095 0.79 11 1 0.083

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

10962 0.12 0.09 11 0.792 0.083

1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1990

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7942 0.116 0.115 0.99 12 1 0.067

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

7942 0.12 0.11 12 0.986 0.067

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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1989

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6763 0.112 0.093 0.83 13 1 0.073

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

6763 0.11 0.09 13 0.835 0.073

1 Age 14 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1988

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5148 0.107 0.074 0.69 14 1 0.099

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

5148 0.11 0.07 14 0.693 0.099

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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 15:13

Extended Survivors Analysis

males INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 17 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0.016 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.001 0 0.002 0.002 0.0052 0.08 0.417 0.137 0.121 0.159 0.188 0.263 0.149 0.115 0.1413 0.762 0.846 0.762 0.731 0.62 0.685 0.668 0.847 0.538 0.4354 1.163 0.946 0.923 0.967 0.967 0.965 1.203 1.322 1.243 0.6765 1.411 0.911 0.91 0.925 0.938 1.096 1.263 1.346 1.233 0.7256 1.648 1.084 0.956 0.879 1.004 1.097 0.997 1.209 1.041 0.7287 1.67 1.087 0.733 0.719 0.974 1.177 0.957 1.173 0.976 0.7488 1.549 1.251 0.686 0.796 0.782 1.45 0.806 1.262 0.874 0.7649 1.812 1.211 1.023 1.144 1.086 1.072 0.786 0.972 0.814 0.799

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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 2.33E+05 1.33E+05 8.04E+04 3.89E+04 1.55E+04 5.55E+03 1.61E+03 3.63E+02 6.64E+011994 1.79E+05 1.72E+05 9.06E+04 2.78E+04 9.00E+03 2.80E+03 7.92E+02 2.25E+02 5.71E+011995 1.92E+05 1.30E+05 8.42E+04 2.88E+04 8.00E+03 2.68E+03 7.02E+02 1.98E+02 4.77E+011996 2.14E+05 1.42E+05 8.42E+04 2.91E+04 8.47E+03 2.39E+03 7.64E+02 2.50E+02 7.38E+011997 2.14E+05 1.58E+05 9.31E+04 3.00E+04 8.20E+03 2.49E+03 7.33E+02 2.76E+02 8.35E+011998 2.08E+05 1.58E+05 9.98E+04 3.71E+04 8.46E+03 2.38E+03 6.76E+02 2.05E+02 9.35E+011999 1.43E+05 1.54E+05 9.68E+04 3.73E+04 1.05E+04 2.09E+03 5.88E+02 1.54E+02 3.56E+012000 1.62E+05 1.06E+05 8.77E+04 3.68E+04 8.30E+03 2.19E+03 5.72E+02 1.67E+02 5.10E+012001 1.90E+05 1.20E+05 6.77E+04 2.79E+04 7.26E+03 1.60E+03 4.85E+02 1.31E+02 3.51E+012002 1.92E+05 1.41E+05 7.92E+04 2.93E+04 5.95E+03 1.57E+03 4.19E+02 1.35E+02 4.05E+01

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.41E+05 9.05E+04 3.80E+04 1.10E+04 2.14E+03 5.61E+02 1.47E+02 4.67E+01

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.86E+05 1.37E+05 8.63E+04 3.30E+04 9.01E+03 2.45E+03 6.82E+02 1.96E+02 5.43E+01

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1344 0.1381 0.1067 0.1554 0.2642 0.343 0.3659 0.3971 0.49421

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.15 0.06 0.17 0.08 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02 0.03 0.13 0.012 0.05 0.09 -0.05 0.13 0.03 0.03 -0.06 -0.08 -0.07 03 -0.58 -0.51 -0.38 -0.02 -0.02 -0.08 -0.17 -0.14 -0.44 -0.144 -0.42 -0.32 -0.17 -0.16 -0.16 -0.1 -0.1 -0.04 -0.42 -0.185 -0.29 -0.09 -0.05 -0.12 -0.09 0.1 0.08 0 -0.39 -0.316 -0.02 0 0.13 -0.11 -0.08 0.15 0.08 0.04 -0.27 -0.647 0.14 0.02 0.1 -0.27 -0.26 0.2 0.1 0.26 -0.22 -0.78 0.49 -0.04 0.21 -0.2 -0.04 -0.05 0.28 0.04 0.31 -0.539 0 -0.02 0 -0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 -0.06 -0.02 -0.09

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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 -0.26 0.08 -0.02 -0.14 -0.11 -0.11 0.25 0.15 -0.01 02 -0.12 -0.03 0.03 -0.05 -0.09 -0.06 0.03 0.22 0.09 0.013 -0.11 0.12 0.11 0.18 0 0.13 0.15 0.28 -0.08 -0.214 -0.12 -0.18 -0.11 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.31 0.3 0.33 -0.195 0.07 -0.22 -0.13 0 0 0.17 0.36 0.32 0.32 -0.126 0.22 -0.05 -0.08 -0.05 0.06 0.17 0.13 0.21 0.15 -0.127 0.24 -0.05 -0.34 -0.25 0.03 0.24 0.09 0.18 0.09 -0.098 0.16 0.09 -0.41 -0.15 -0.18 0.44 -0.08 0.25 -0.02 -0.079 0.31 0.06 -0.01 0.2 0.14 0.15 -0.1 0 -0.09 -0.03

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -4.7943 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 S.E(Log q) 0.1889 0.2179 0.232 0.2147 0.2588 0.2648 0.128

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.01 -36.931 12.12 0.03 20 0.14 -11.242 0.17 -16.966 10.87 0.56 20 0.1 -6.29

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 0.29 -6.776 9.45 0.44 20 0.08 -4.794 0.33 -4.351 8.4 0.32 20 0.13 -4.385 0.58 -2.423 6.36 0.52 20 0.19 -4.356 0.74 -1.704 5.27 0.7 20 0.2 -4.377 0.66 -2.321 5.12 0.68 20 0.22 -4.48 0.7 -1.983 4.65 0.68 20 0.24 -4.389 0.84 -3.697 4.29 0.97 20 0.08 -4.341

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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 141219 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.005

P shrinkage mean 137143 0.14 0 0.005

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

141220 0.3 0 1 0 0.005

1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 90481 0.212 0.008 0.04 2 1 0.141

P shrinkage mean 86338 0.11 0 0.148

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

90481 0.21 0.01 2 0.039 0.141

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 37991 0.174 0.112 0.65 3 1 0.435

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

37991 0.17 0.11 3 0.648 0.435

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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 11031 0.158 0.111 0.71 4 1 0.676

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

11031 0.16 0.11 4 0.706 0.676

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2136 0.198 0.094 0.47 5 1 0.725

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2136 0.2 0.09 5 0.473 0.725

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 561 0.213 0.084 0.39 6 1 0.728

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

561 0.21 0.08 6 0.392 0.728

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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 147 0.212 0.057 0.27 7 1 0.748

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

147 0.21 0.06 7 0.267 0.748

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 47 0.208 0.04 0.19 8 1 0.764

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

47 0.21 0.04 8 0.19 0.764

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 14 0.202 0.022 0.11 9 1 0.799

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

14 0.2 0.02 9 0.111 0.799

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

21/03/2003 16:48

Extended Survivors Analysis

females INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 6

Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00232

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2

109 0.004 0.18 0.133 0.1496 0.1978 0.2369 0.2353 0.2153 0.2251 0.254

Iteration 30 0.004 0.18 0.133 0.1496 0.1977 0.2368 0.2352 0.2152 0.225 0.2537

Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.2088 0.3211 0.3048 Iteration 30 0.2085 0.3205 0.3041

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0.015 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.0042 0.086 0.445 0.161 0.143 0.211 0.239 0.273 0.162 0.143 0.183 0.173 0.295 0.193 0.225 0.284 0.25 0.262 0.337 0.161 0.1334 0.212 0.265 0.216 0.273 0.325 0.223 0.29 0.317 0.191 0.155 0.262 0.262 0.273 0.284 0.396 0.234 0.321 0.262 0.229 0.1986 0.299 0.268 0.303 0.26 0.388 0.264 0.35 0.283 0.231 0.2377 0.236 0.249 0.259 0.233 0.362 0.238 0.34 0.226 0.249 0.2358 0.286 0.293 0.246 0.267 0.397 0.236 0.429 0.24 0.277 0.2159 0.372 0.351 0.262 0.307 0.469 0.263 0.543 0.295 0.339 0.225

10 0.534 0.329 0.249 0.376 0.452 0.287 0.635 0.378 0.329 0.25411 0.414 0.303 0.198 0.35 0.46 0.234 0.442 0.388 0.284 0.20912 0.571 0.532 0.324 0.482 0.732 0.358 0.498 0.501 0.439 0.3213 0.819 0.587 0.507 0.674 0.594 0.38 0.448 0.438 0.344 0.304

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 2.30E+05 1.25E+05 7.49E+04 4.97E+04 3.22E+04 2.18E+04 1.32E+04 8.25E+03 5.34E+03 3.22E+031994 1.80E+05 1.70E+05 8.49E+04 5.15E+04 3.29E+04 2.03E+04 1.32E+04 8.54E+03 5.07E+03 3.01E+031995 1.76E+05 1.31E+05 8.08E+04 5.18E+04 3.24E+04 2.07E+04 1.27E+04 8.45E+03 5.22E+03 2.92E+031996 1.87E+05 1.30E+05 8.28E+04 5.46E+04 3.42E+04 2.02E+04 1.25E+04 8.03E+03 5.41E+03 3.29E+031997 1.97E+05 1.39E+05 8.36E+04 5.41E+04 3.40E+04 2.11E+04 1.27E+04 8.13E+03 5.03E+03 3.26E+031998 1.97E+05 1.45E+05 8.32E+04 5.15E+04 3.20E+04 1.87E+04 1.17E+04 7.26E+03 4.48E+03 2.58E+031999 1.63E+05 1.45E+05 8.48E+04 5.30E+04 3.38E+04 2.07E+04 1.18E+04 7.54E+03 4.70E+03 2.82E+032000 1.67E+05 1.21E+05 8.20E+04 5.34E+04 3.25E+04 2.00E+04 1.20E+04 6.86E+03 4.02E+03 2.23E+032001 1.82E+05 1.24E+05 7.60E+04 4.79E+04 3.19E+04 2.05E+04 1.24E+04 7.82E+03 4.42E+03 2.45E+032002 1.84E+05 1.35E+05 7.93E+04 5.30E+04 3.24E+04 2.07E+04 1.33E+04 7.89E+03 4.85E+03 2.58E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.36E+05 8.34E+04 5.69E+04 3.73E+04 2.18E+04 1.34E+04 8.61E+03 5.21E+03 3.17E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.76E+05 1.28E+05 7.80E+04 5.05E+04 3.22E+04 2.03E+04 1.26E+04 7.90E+03 4.90E+03 2.88E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1285 0.1384 0.0884 0.0724 0.0597 0.0671 0.086 0.1186 0.1683 0.2269

10

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13

1993 1.45E+03 8.94E+02 5.61E+021994 1.55E+03 7.87E+02 4.14E+021995 1.78E+03 9.35E+02 3.79E+021996 1.87E+03 1.19E+03 5.54E+021997 1.85E+03 1.08E+03 6.03E+021998 1.70E+03 9.55E+02 4.24E+021999 1.58E+03 1.10E+03 5.47E+022000 1.22E+03 8.33E+02 5.47E+022001 1.25E+03 6.79E+02 4.14E+022002 1.44E+03 7.72E+02 3.58E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

1.64E+03 9.61E+02 4.60E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.63E+03 9.77E+02 5.13E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.2659 0.304 0.31771

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

1 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.2 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.16 0.04 02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.16 0.11 0.13 0.09 0.12 0.08 -0.033 -0.04 -0.07 -0.05 0.11 0.11 0.1 0.12 0.08 0.08 0.014 -0.09 -0.16 -0.16 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.12 0.11 0.02 0.025 -0.15 -0.2 -0.24 -0.13 -0.01 0.01 0.09 0.1 0.07 -0.046 -0.44 -0.57 -0.6 0.06 -0.09 0 -0.03 -0.1 -0.15 -0.47 -0.13 -0.6 -0.55 0.09 -0.04 0.2 0.38 0.1 -0.13 -0.58 -0.07 -0.63 -0.9 -0.16 -0.24 0.03 0.35 0.28 -0.16 -0.659 0.02 -0.35 -1 -0.39 -0.39 0 0.33 0.32 0.01 -0.69

10 0.24 -0.28 -0.64 -0.35 -0.58 -0.04 0.61 0.38 -0.04 -0.4611 0.66 -0.24 -0.52 0.01 -0.84 0.05 0.51 0.48 -0.07 -0.412 0.29 0.26 -0.54 0.14 -0.41 0.02 0.19 0.15 0.15 -0.5113 0 -0.02 -0.05 0.22 0.02 0.27 0.22 0 -0.11 -0.19

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.33 0.05 0.01 -0.06 -0.07 -0.09 0.09 0.07 -0.01 02 -0.17 -0.06 -0.04 -0.04 -0.01 -0.02 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.013 -0.06 -0.04 -0.06 -0.03 0 -0.01 -0.01 0.05 -0.01 -0.074 -0.05 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 -0.085 -0.04 -0.04 0 -0.03 0.03 0 0.01 0 0.01 -0.026 -0.2 -0.17 0.04 0 0.38 0.02 0.36 0.04 -0.08 0.037 -0.38 -0.19 -0.05 -0.05 0.37 -0.02 0.39 -0.13 0.06 0.088 -0.24 -0.09 -0.16 0.02 0.4 -0.09 0.56 -0.13 0.1 -0.079 -0.14 -0.07 -0.26 0 0.41 -0.14 0.63 -0.08 0.14 -0.19

10 0.09 -0.25 -0.44 0.08 0.25 -0.18 0.66 0.04 -0.01 -0.1911 -0.02 -0.19 -0.52 0.15 0.41 -0.24 0.45 0.21 -0.02 -0.2412 -0.06 0 -0.4 0.11 0.51 -0.18 0.2 0.1 0.06 -0.1813 0.3 0.1 0.05 0.44 0.3 -0.12 0.1 -0.03 -0.19 -0.23

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Mean Log -5.6295 -5.6897 -5.6293 -5.469 -5.3462 -5.4885 -5.1249 -5.1249 S.E(Log q) 0.2089 0.2552 0.3048 0.334 0.3369 0.3401 0.2653 0.2183

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.03 -46.405 12.05 0.17 20 0.12 -11.142 0.2 -21.044 10.62 0.74 20 0.07 -6.113 0.19 -17.142 10.27 0.6 20 0.06 -5.894 0.17 -16.19 10 0.51 20 0.05 -5.815 0.15 -16.006 9.68 0.44 20 0.05 -5.7

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

6 0.13 -10.615 9.35 0.2 20 0.06 -5.637 0.09 -9.302 9.09 0.08 20 0.09 -5.698 0.1 -7.854 8.63 0.07 20 0.12 -5.639 0.17 -5.949 7.98 0.13 20 0.16 -5.47

10 0.33 -5.12 7.1 0.39 20 0.19 -5.3511 0.38 -4.116 6.67 0.39 20 0.22 -5.4912 0.56 -3.49 5.91 0.66 20 0.19 -5.1213 0.63 -4.323 5.51 0.84 20 0.13 -5.081

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 135597 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.004

P shrinka 128223 0.14 0 0.004

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

135597 0.3 0 1 0 0.004

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 83387 0.212 0.008 0.04 2 1 0.18

P shrinkage mean 77958 0.09 0 0.191

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

83387 0.21 0.01 2 0.035 0.18

Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 56880 0.174 0.04 0.23 3 1 0.133

P shrinkage mean 50501 0.07 0 0.149

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

56880 0.17 0.04 3 0.228 0.133

1 Age 4 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 37348 0.152 0.037 0.25 4 1 0.15

P shrinkage mean 32230 0.06 0 0.171

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

37348 0.15 0.04 4 0.246 0.15

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1997

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 21794 0.142 0.021 0.15 5 1 0.198

P shrinkage mean 20260 0.07 0 0.211

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

21794 0.14 0.02 5 0.15 0.198

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 13410 0.133 0.013 0.09 6 1 0.237

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

13410 0.13 0.01 6 0.094 0.237

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 8612 0.126 0.023 0.18 7 1 0.235

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

8612 0.13 0.02 7 0.184 0.235

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1994

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5211 0.124 0.018 0.14 8 1 0.215

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

5211 0.12 0.02 8 0.142 0.215

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1993

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3173 0.124 0.059 0.48 9 1 0.225

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

3173 0.12 0.06 9 0.478 0.225

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1992

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1640 0.13 0.064 0.49 10 1 0.253

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1640 0.13 0.06 10 0.494 0.254

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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1991

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 961 0.134 0.078 0.58 11 1 0.208

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

961 0.13 0.08 11 0.579 0.209

1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1990

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 460 0.139 0.067 0.49 12 1 0.32

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

460 0.14 0.07 12 0.486 0.32

Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12

Year class = 1989

Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 217 0.146 0.072 0.49 13 1 0.304

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

217 0.15 0.07 13 0.492 0.304

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Management Area H Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 18:56

Extended Survivors Analysis

Botney-Mal-Removals INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 11.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 10 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 2

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 21 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.0033 0.044 0.038 0.031 0.015 0.033 0.045 0.041 0.04 0.083 0.0584 0.155 0.14 0.2 0.122 0.22 0.241 0.268 0.241 0.413 0.3185 0.265 0.23 0.365 0.231 0.435 0.423 0.467 0.373 0.668 0.5196 0.305 0.217 0.378 0.243 0.523 0.485 0.544 0.526 0.695 0.5487 0.367 0.183 0.397 0.258 0.567 0.516 0.577 0.589 0.789 0.5688 0.403 0.189 0.344 0.28 0.48 0.499 0.588 0.633 0.842 0.529 0.354 0.193 0.272 0.288 0.46 0.382 0.599 0.51 0.913 0.476

10 0.315 0.182 0.246 0.26 0.384 0.368 0.46 0.422 0.587 0.439

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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 9.51E+04 7.49E+04 5.45E+04 3.74E+04 2.00E+04 9.89E+03 5.06E+03 2.23E+03 1.04E+03 4.83E+021994 9.90E+04 7.05E+04 5.53E+04 3.86E+04 2.37E+04 1.14E+04 5.40E+03 2.60E+03 1.10E+03 5.38E+021995 1.04E+05 7.34E+04 5.20E+04 3.94E+04 2.49E+04 1.40E+04 6.79E+03 3.33E+03 1.59E+03 6.75E+021996 1.05E+05 7.69E+04 5.43E+04 3.74E+04 2.39E+04 1.28E+04 7.08E+03 3.38E+03 1.75E+03 8.98E+021997 1.17E+05 7.81E+04 5.69E+04 3.96E+04 2.45E+04 1.41E+04 7.43E+03 4.05E+03 1.89E+03 9.72E+021998 1.49E+05 8.66E+04 5.77E+04 4.08E+04 2.35E+04 1.17E+04 6.18E+03 3.12E+03 1.86E+03 8.85E+021999 1.83E+05 1.10E+05 6.40E+04 4.08E+04 2.38E+04 1.14E+04 5.36E+03 2.73E+03 1.41E+03 9.39E+022000 2.57E+05 1.36E+05 8.16E+04 4.55E+04 2.31E+04 1.10E+04 4.91E+03 2.23E+03 1.12E+03 5.72E+022001 3.56E+05 1.91E+05 1.00E+05 5.80E+04 2.65E+04 1.18E+04 4.83E+03 2.02E+03 8.77E+02 5.00E+022002 2.66E+05 2.64E+05 1.41E+05 6.83E+04 2.85E+04 1.01E+04 4.36E+03 1.63E+03 6.44E+02 2.61E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.97E+05 1.95E+05 9.83E+04 3.68E+04 1.25E+04 4.31E+03 1.83E+03 7.16E+02 2.97E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.41E+05 9.56E+04 6.26E+04 4.02E+04 2.23E+04 1.10E+04 5.33E+03 2.55E+03 1.25E+03 6.38E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.4871 0.4636 0.3555 0.2644 0.191 0.1728 0.1985 0.2646 0.34 0.3963

1

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.27 -0.36 0.44 0.86 0.75 0.8 -0.612 0.29 0.16 0.5 0.58 0.6 0.48 -0.283 0.25 0.19 0.49 0.44 0.41 0.49 -0.44 -0.08 0.07 0.15 0.07 -0.01 0.15 -0.55 -0.16 0.02 -0.01 -0.07 -0.04 -0.13 -0.356 0.06 0.02 0.22 0.08 0.06 -0.1 -0.27 -0.14 0.02 0.23 0.26 0.19 -0.16 -0.138 -0.11 -0.1 0.31 0.19 0.38 -0.09 -0.019 -0.02 -0.15 0.2 0.21 0.16 -0.02 -0.01

10 -0.05 -0.02 0.18 0.07 0.01 -0.13 -0.13

10

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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.88 1.22 0.15 -1.86 -0.51 -0.21 -0.87 -0.88 0.54 1.052 0.43 0.83 0.18 -0.84 -0.14 0.04 -0.42 -0.51 0.04 -0.23 0.24 0.58 0.17 -0.86 -0.26 -0.03 -0.23 -0.35 0.27 -0.024 -0.13 0.25 0.4 -0.4 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.2 0.23 0.045 -0.12 0.22 0.48 -0.29 0.16 0.04 0.03 -0.29 0.19 0.016 0.02 0.16 0.51 -0.24 0.34 0.18 0.18 0.05 0.23 0.067 0.21 -0.01 0.56 -0.18 0.42 0.24 0.24 0.16 0.35 0.18 0.3 0.03 0.42 -0.1 0.26 0.2 0.26 0.24 0.41 0.019 0.17 0.04 0.19 -0.07 0.21 -0.06 0.28 0.02 0.49 -0.08

10 0.06 -0.01 0.09 -0.18 0.03 -0.1 0.02 -0.17 0.06 -0.16

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log -10.2609 -7.4622 -5.8321 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 S.E(Log q) 0.4724 0.4066 0.2417 0.2279 0.2316 0.2809 0.2613 0.2085 0.1122

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 2.09 -1.801 15.86 0.22 17 0.97 -13.78 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

2 1.62 -1.283 9.51 0.3 17 0.74 -10.263 1.18 -0.431 6.81 0.36 17 0.5 -7.464 0.85 0.62 6.55 0.63 17 0.21 -5.835 0.69 1.264 6.75 0.63 17 0.15 -5.316 0.64 1.721 6.66 0.7 17 0.12 -5.27 0.73 1.098 6.06 0.63 17 0.16 -5.148 0.92 0.376 5.34 0.71 17 0.18 -5.139 1.01 -0.043 5.19 0.79 17 0.19 -5.2

10 0.92 1.039 5.43 0.95 17 0.1 -5.35

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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 562204 1.117 0 0 1 0.085 0

P shrinkage me 95598 0.46 0.492 0

F shrinkage me 371407 0.5 0.423 0

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

197266 0.33 0.9 3 2.765 0

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 180640 0.448 0.277 0.62 2 0.553 0.003

F shrinkage me 213958 0.5 0.447 0.003

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

194823 0.33 0.17 3 0.498 0.003

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 91513 0.306 0.181 0.59 3 0.715 0.063

F shrinkage me 117856 0.5 0.285 0.049

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

98343 0.26 0.15 4 0.564 0.058

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 35429 0.215 0.18 0.84 4 0.792 0.328

F shrinkage me 42756 0.5 0.208 0.279

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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

36843 0.2 0.14 5 0.727 0.318

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12215 0.179 0.114 0.64 5 0.789 0.53

F shrinkage me 13877 0.5 0.211 0.479

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

12547 0.18 0.09 6 0.535 0.519

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4346 0.165 0.07 0.43 6 0.785 0.545

F shrinkage me 4172 0.5 0.215 0.562

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

4308 0.17 0.06 7 0.341 0.548

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1885 0.157 0.09 0.57 7 0.786 0.555

F shrinkage me 1645 0.5 0.214 0.616

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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1831 0.16 0.08 8 0.477 0.568

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 764 0.163 0.075 0.46 8 0.779 0.494

F shrinkage me 572 0.5 0.221 0.617

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

716 0.17 0.08 9 0.464 0.52

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 319 0.167 0.083 0.5 9 0.778 0.449

F shrinkage me 230 0.5 0.222 0.581

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

297 0.17 0.09 10 0.506 0.476

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 134 0.173 0.094 0.54 10 0.775 0.414

F shrinkage me 97 0.5 0.225 0.533

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

125 0.18 0.09 11 0.524 0.439

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 22:57

Extended Survivors Analysis

Botney-FeINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 16.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 15 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 7

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00017

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0001 0.0074 0.0681 0.1459 0.2336 0.2701 0.2975 0.311 0.2821 0.2967 Iteration 30 0.0001 0.0074 0.0681 0.1459 0.2336 0.2701 0.2975 0.311 0.2821 0.2967

Age 11 12 13 14 15 Iteration 29 0.2643 0.3017 0.2884 0.3044 0.2957 Iteration 30 0.2642 0.3017 0.2883 0.3044 0.2957

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.003 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.005 0.0073 0.019 0.035 0.021 0.014 0.028 0.05 0.046 0.038 0.042 0.0684 0.056 0.055 0.058 0.038 0.071 0.108 0.13 0.118 0.117 0.1465 0.12 0.076 0.115 0.089 0.131 0.212 0.253 0.228 0.23 0.2346 0.206 0.099 0.152 0.135 0.177 0.275 0.365 0.368 0.323 0.277 0.295 0.118 0.17 0.183 0.23 0.304 0.362 0.401 0.353 0.2988 0.315 0.116 0.175 0.184 0.236 0.303 0.386 0.542 0.413 0.3119 0.324 0.098 0.171 0.161 0.291 0.31 0.345 0.579 0.384 0.282

10 0.403 0.127 0.205 0.18 0.275 0.263 0.374 0.636 0.482 0.29711 0.462 0.161 0.259 0.166 0.23 0.251 0.357 0.72 0.398 0.26412 0.425 0.186 0.309 0.181 0.2 0.277 0.405 0.619 0.527 0.30213 0.443 0.154 0.306 0.3 0.154 0.302 0.362 0.568 0.538 0.28814 0.392 0.224 0.198 0.281 0.207 0.26 0.324 0.7 0.418 0.30415 0.344 0.136 0.148 0.177 0.176 0.221 0.319 0.433 0.362 0.296

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 4.65E+04 3.63E+04 2.76E+04 2.04E+04 1.46E+04 9.58E+03 6.40E+03 3.66E+03 2.36E+03 1.39E+031994 4.52E+04 3.44E+04 2.68E+04 2.22E+04 1.58E+04 1.06E+04 6.39E+03 3.90E+03 2.19E+03 1.39E+031995 4.48E+04 3.34E+04 2.54E+04 2.12E+04 1.72E+04 1.20E+04 7.88E+03 4.65E+03 2.84E+03 1.62E+031996 4.50E+04 3.32E+04 2.47E+04 2.03E+04 1.64E+04 1.26E+04 8.41E+03 5.45E+03 3.20E+03 1.96E+031997 5.57E+04 3.33E+04 2.45E+04 1.99E+04 1.60E+04 1.23E+04 8.98E+03 5.74E+03 3.71E+03 2.23E+031998 7.70E+04 4.13E+04 2.46E+04 1.95E+04 1.52E+04 1.15E+04 8.42E+03 5.84E+03 3.71E+03 2.27E+031999 1.01E+05 5.70E+04 3.04E+04 1.91E+04 1.44E+04 1.01E+04 7.15E+03 5.09E+03 3.53E+03 2.23E+032000 1.36E+05 7.49E+04 4.20E+04 2.38E+04 1.38E+04 9.12E+03 5.72E+03 4.08E+03 2.83E+03 2.05E+032001 1.88E+05 1.01E+05 5.53E+04 3.31E+04 1.73E+04 8.98E+03 5.17E+03 3.14E+03 1.94E+03 1.30E+032002 3.01E+05 1.40E+05 7.43E+04 4.34E+04 2.41E+04 1.12E+04 5.32E+03 2.97E+03 1.70E+03 1.08E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 2.23E+05 1.03E+05 5.68E+04 3.07E+04 1.56E+04 7.03E+03 3.24E+03 1.78E+03 1.05E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

7.46E+04 4.71E+04 3.07E+04 2.20E+04 1.54E+04 1.04E+04 6.78E+03 4.45E+03 2.88E+03 1.88E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.6628 0.5111 0.391 0.2804 0.1832 0.1397 0.2089 0.2585 0.3148 0.3427

AGE YEAR 11 12 13 14 15

1993 9.64E+02 8.89E+02 6.52E+02 6.42E+02 4.90E+021994 7.63E+02 4.97E+02 4.76E+02 3.42E+02 3.55E+021995 1.01E+03 5.32E+02 3.38E+02 3.34E+02 2.24E+021996 1.08E+03 6.36E+02 3.20E+02 2.04E+02 2.25E+021997 1.34E+03 7.51E+02 4.34E+02 1.94E+02 1.26E+021998 1.39E+03 8.72E+02 5.03E+02 3.05E+02 1.29E+021999 1.43E+03 8.82E+02 5.41E+02 3.04E+02 1.93E+022000 1.25E+03 8.19E+02 4.82E+02 3.08E+02 1.80E+022001 8.87E+02 4.99E+02 3.61E+02 2.23E+02 1.25E+022002 6.57E+02 4.88E+02 2.41E+02 1.73E+02 1.20E+02

10

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

6.59E+02 4.13E+02 2.96E+02 1.48E+02 1.04E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.22E+03 7.96E+02 5.16E+02 3.46E+02 2.31E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.3933 0.4324 0.5026 0.5544 0.58741

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.04 0.32 0.64 0.46 0.33 0.53 -0.352 -0.09 0.24 0.37 0.39 0.31 0.46 -0.453 -0.22 0.14 0.35 0.3 0.29 0.4 -0.54 -0.38 -0.03 0.17 0.17 0.09 0.25 -0.675 -0.52 -0.06 -0.02 -0.06 -0.03 0.04 -0.86 -0.71 -0.26 -0.25 0.09 -0.03 0.12 -0.677 -0.78 -0.35 -0.36 0.07 0.05 0.03 -0.598 -0.89 -0.54 -0.42 0.21 0.2 0.22 -0.269 -0.71 -0.64 -0.43 0.17 0.33 0.47 0.01

10 -0.7 -0.45 -0.61 -0.09 0.32 0.12 0.1311 -0.78 -0.69 -0.7 -0.12 0.3 0.52 -0.2112 -0.84 -0.79 -0.75 -0.09 0.04 0.24 -0.3813 -0.53 -0.75 -0.56 -0.55 0.18 0.1 -0.7514 -0.45 -0.57 -0.37 -0.33 0.08 0.63 -0.7615 -0.51 -0.41 -0.28 0.01 0.26 0.31 -0.17

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0.04 1.04 0.35 -0.4 -0.08 0.02 -0.21 -0.49 -0.54 -0.182 -0.21 0.88 0.16 -0.59 -0.06 0.18 -0.1 -0.34 -0.37 0.143 -0.38 0.7 0 -0.76 -0.19 0.28 0.1 -0.19 -0.2 0.354 -0.18 0.28 0.14 -0.61 -0.15 0.18 0.25 0.06 -0.05 0.245 0 0.01 0.23 -0.34 -0.13 0.26 0.33 0.12 0.03 0.126 0.19 -0.06 0.17 -0.27 -0.17 0.18 0.35 0.26 0.03 -0.087 0.4 -0.03 0.13 -0.11 -0.06 0.13 0.2 0.2 -0.03 -0.138 0.47 -0.04 0.16 -0.11 -0.03 0.13 0.26 0.5 0.13 -0.099 0.5 -0.22 0.14 -0.24 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.56 0.05 -0.18

10 0.72 0.04 0.32 -0.13 0.12 -0.02 0.23 0.66 0.28 -0.1311 0.85 0.28 0.55 -0.21 -0.06 -0.06 0.18 0.78 0.09 -0.2512 0.77 0.42 0.73 -0.13 -0.2 0.04 0.31 0.63 0.37 -0.1213 0.81 0.23 0.72 0.38 -0.46 0.12 0.2 0.55 0.39 -0.1614 0.69 0.61 0.28 0.32 -0.16 -0.03 0.09 0.75 0.14 -0.1115 0.56 0.11 -0.01 -0.14 -0.33 -0.19 0.07 0.28 0 -0.14

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log q -13.2669 -9.672 -7.6743 -6.8013 -6.2076 -5.8677 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 S.E(Log q) 0.4548 0.3996 0.397 0.3026 0.2762 0.2672 0.2405 0.2808 0.3168 0.3521

Age 11 12 13 14 15 Mean Log q -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 S.E(Log q) 0.4437 0.4518 0.4858 0.4506 0.2499

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 1.61 -2.088 14.51 0.54 17 0.64 -13.272 1.24 -0.81 9.41 0.53 17 0.5 -9.673 0.94 0.188 7.83 0.52 17 0.39 -7.674 0.85 0.539 7.29 0.55 17 0.26 -6.85 0.74 0.757 7.1 0.46 17 0.21 -6.216 1.48 -0.546 4.23 0.11 17 0.41 -5.877 0.94 0.182 5.91 0.46 17 0.24 -5.728 1.26 -0.642 4.92 0.38 17 0.34 -5.639 0.96 0.151 5.72 0.55 17 0.3 -5.62

10 1.28 -0.783 5.01 0.43 17 0.41 -5.5711 1.18 -0.457 5.31 0.39 17 0.51 -5.5812 1.51 -1.172 4.99 0.34 17 0.63 -5.5613 1.48 -1.179 5.28 0.37 17 0.68 -5.5914 1.04 -0.158 5.56 0.61 17 0.46 -5.5815 0.82 1.928 5.67 0.92 17 0.18 -5.721

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2001

Fleet

10

E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 186365 0.473 0 0 1 0.527 0

F shrinkage m 272988 0.5 0.473 0

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

223216 0.34 0.26 2 0.763 0

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 87736 0.312 0.334 1.07 2 0.718 0.009

F shrinkage m 152916 0.5 0.282 0.005

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

102640 0.26 0.29 3 1.091 0.007

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 49450 0.249 0.266 1.07 3 0.789 0.078

F shrinkage m 95500 0.5 0.211 0.041

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

56808 0.22 0.26 4 1.165 0.068

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 29008 0.196 0.143 0.73 4 0.846 0.154

F shrinkage m 41851 0.5 0.154 0.109

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

30694 0.18 0.13 5 0.737 0.146

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15390 0.165 0.055 0.33 5 0.87 0.237

F shrinkage m 17433 0.5 0.13 0.212

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

15642 0.16 0.05 6 0.318 0.234

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7160 0.146 0.038 0.26 6 0.878 0.266

F shrinkage m 6149 0.5 0.122 0.303

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

7028 0.14 0.04 7 0.274 0.27

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3296 0.136 0.071 0.52 7 0.876 0.293

F shrinkage m 2849 0.5 0.124 0.332

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

3237 0.13 0.06 8 0.48 0.298

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1847 0.132 0.084 0.63 8 0.87 0.302

F shrinkage m 1413 0.5 0.13 0.379

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1784 0.13 0.08 9 0.612 0.311

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1113 0.133 0.103 0.78 9 0.861 0.268

F shrinkage m 730 0.5 0.139 0.384

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1049 0.13 0.1 10 0.78 0.282

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 706 0.136 0.099 0.73 10 0.845 0.279

F shrinkage m 450 0.5 0.155 0.409

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

659 0.14 0.1 11 0.742 0.297

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1991

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 460 0.143 0.099 0.69 11 0.811 0.24

F shrinkage m 259 0.5 0.189 0.394

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

413 0.15 0.11 12 0.759 0.264

1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1990

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 325 0.147 0.084 0.57 12 0.793 0.278

F shrinkage m 206 0.5 0.207 0.409

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

296 0.16 0.09 13 0.595 0.302

Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1989

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 167 0.167 0.085 0.51 13 0.745 0.26

F shrinkage m 105 0.5 0.255 0.387

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

148 0.18 0.1 14 0.54 0.288

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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Age 14 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1988

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 115 0.17 0.076 0.45 14 0.745 0.281

F shrinkage m 79 0.5 0.255 0.384

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

104 0.18 0.08 15 0.449 0.304

Age 15 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1987

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 73 0.163 0.064 0.39 15 0.813 0.296

F shrinkage m 74 0.5 0.187 0.293

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

73 0.16 0.06 16 0.345 0.296

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Management Area C Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data. Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 18:04

Extended Survivors Analysis

males INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2

Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 17 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0.002 0.005 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001 0.0012 0.089 0.288 0.256 0.071 0.097 0.041 0.123 0.054 0.063 0.0953 0.369 0.744 0.52 0.351 0.439 0.225 0.396 0.337 0.371 0.3884 0.693 0.937 0.773 0.684 0.767 0.533 0.677 0.689 0.661 0.6535 0.608 0.904 0.756 0.894 0.962 0.681 0.753 0.71 0.749 0.5996 0.382 0.786 0.779 0.869 0.791 0.604 0.644 0.552 0.64 0.5767 0.461 0.804 0.768 1.058 0.562 0.723 0.715 0.521 0.565 0.6288 0.639 0.718 1.107 1.137 0.614 0.531 0.874 0.578 0.564 0.7049 0.766 0.924 0.915 0.576 0.583 0.637 0.861 0.632 0.7 0.721

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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 2.35E+05 1.93E+05 1.16E+05 6.32E+04 1.88E+04 6.27E+03 2.06E+03 6.13E+02 1.55E+021994 1.89E+05 1.74E+05 1.30E+05 5.92E+04 2.34E+04 7.57E+03 3.17E+03 9.64E+02 2.40E+021995 1.77E+05 1.40E+05 9.68E+04 4.59E+04 1.72E+04 7.02E+03 2.56E+03 1.05E+03 3.48E+021996 1.81E+05 1.30E+05 8.03E+04 4.26E+04 1.57E+04 5.98E+03 2.39E+03 8.79E+02 2.57E+021997 1.91E+05 1.34E+05 8.99E+04 4.19E+04 1.59E+04 4.76E+03 1.86E+03 6.14E+02 2.09E+021998 1.91E+05 1.41E+05 8.99E+04 4.29E+04 1.44E+04 4.51E+03 1.60E+03 7.83E+02 2.46E+021999 2.03E+05 1.42E+05 1.00E+05 5.32E+04 1.87E+04 5.40E+03 1.83E+03 5.75E+02 3.41E+022000 2.31E+05 1.50E+05 9.29E+04 5.01E+04 2.00E+04 6.51E+03 2.10E+03 6.62E+02 1.78E+022001 2.15E+05 1.71E+05 1.05E+05 4.92E+04 1.86E+04 7.29E+03 2.78E+03 9.24E+02 2.75E+022002 2.04E+05 1.59E+05 1.19E+05 5.38E+04 1.88E+04 6.53E+03 2.85E+03 1.17E+03 3.90E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.51E+05 1.07E+05 6.00E+04 2.08E+04 7.65E+03 2.72E+03 1.13E+03 4.29E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

2.07E+05 1.54E+05 1.03E+05 4.91E+04 1.74E+04 5.78E+03 2.10E+03 7.32E+02 2.36E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1152 0.1236 0.149 0.1439 0.1668 0.2134 0.2676 0.299 0.33981

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.35 -0.4 -0.39 -0.11 0.13 0.01 -0.05 -0.1 -0.07 -0.242 0.51 0.9 0.71 -0.08 -0.09 0.12 0.07 -0.18 -0.86 03 0.53 0.65 0.2 0.26 0.12 0.47 0.15 -0.04 -0.04 -0.164 0.24 0.33 -0.11 0.13 0.07 0.37 -0.07 -0.17 -0.01 -0.055 0.37 0.35 0.1 0.04 0.13 0.17 0.06 -0.18 0.1 06 0.48 0.29 0.1 -0.21 0.11 0.03 0.12 -0.35 0.03 -0.087 0.58 0.37 0.36 -0.33 0.14 -0.13 0.27 -0.4 -0.02 0.118 0.97 -0.33 0.96 -0.21 0.06 -0.01 0.23 -0.21 -0.24 0.339 0 -0.04 0.06 -0.07 0.05 0.01 0 -0.06 0.06 0.2

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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 -0.08 0.06 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.09 0 -0.05 -0.06 02 -0.17 0.99 1 -0.11 0.08 -0.73 0.25 -0.52 -0.26 0.23 -0.24 0.45 0.22 0 0.09 -0.5 -0.07 -0.18 0.04 0.114 -0.17 0.12 0.06 0.11 0.09 -0.2 -0.09 -0.03 0.05 0.075 -0.3 0.08 0.03 0.37 0.31 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.17 -0.016 -0.76 -0.05 0.06 0.34 0.12 -0.08 -0.14 -0.24 0.02 -0.057 -0.57 -0.03 0.05 0.54 -0.22 0.1 -0.04 -0.3 -0.1 0.048 -0.25 -0.14 0.41 0.61 -0.13 -0.21 0.16 -0.2 -0.1 0.159 -0.07 0.11 0.22 -0.06 -0.18 -0.03 0.14 -0.11 0.11 0.17

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -6.9402 -5.4583 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 S.E(Log q) 0.5347 0.2458 0.1256 0.1811 0.2564 0.2716 0.2868 0.1337

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 -0.05 -27.746 12.26 0.13 20 0.11 -11.96 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

2 0.04 -13.599 11.74 0.03 20 0.13 -6.943 0.32 -6.754 9.58 0.51 20 0.11 -5.464 0.56 -3.008 7.48 0.6 20 0.1 -4.95 0.5 -2.698 7.3 0.42 20 0.13 -4.846 0.42 -3.612 7.09 0.41 20 0.17 -4.977 0.5 -3.735 6.3 0.58 20 0.18 -4.948 0.52 -4.298 5.7 0.68 20 0.18 -4.879 0.76 -4.178 5.01 0.95 20 0.08 -4.871

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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 151017 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.001

P shrinkage m 154431 0.12 0 0.001

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

151017 0.3 0 1 0 0.001

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 107341 0.264 0.106 0.4 2 1 0.095

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

107341 0.26 0.11 2 0.403 0.095

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 59965 0.198 0.086 0.44 3 1 0.388

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

59965 0.2 0.09 3 0.436 0.388

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 20757 0.169 0.087 0.51 4 1 0.653

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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

20757 0.17 0.09 4 0.515 0.653

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7653 0.162 0.048 0.3 5 1 0.599

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

7653 0.16 0.05 5 0.297 0.599

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2719 0.168 0.064 0.38 6 1 0.576

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2719 0.17 0.06 6 0.38 0.576

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1125 0.165 0.05 0.3 7 1 0.628

Weighted prediction :

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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1125 0.17 0.05 7 0.3 0.628

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 429 0.161 0.057 0.35 8 1 0.704

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

429 0.16 0.06 8 0.355 0.704

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 140 0.161 0.065 0.4 9 1 0.721

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

140 0.16 0.06 9 0.401 0.721

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

21/03/2003 17:39

Extended Survivors Analysis

females INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4

Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .03227

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0023 0.1229 0.1307 0.1607 0.1828 0.2036 0.22 0.2427 0.1968 0.2344 Iteration 30 0.0023 0.1226 0.1303 0.1601 0.182 0.2026 0.2186 0.2407 0.1948 0.2312

Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.2286 0.2427 0.342 Iteration 30 0.2247 0.2373 0.3306

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Functional Units 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0.002 0.002 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0 0.001 0.0022 0.147 0.286 0.234 0.048 0.142 0.074 0.168 0.112 0.131 0.1233 0.128 0.215 0.201 0.076 0.173 0.089 0.178 0.13 0.115 0.134 0.131 0.186 0.197 0.117 0.185 0.117 0.189 0.147 0.133 0.165 0.141 0.176 0.224 0.15 0.195 0.139 0.227 0.167 0.149 0.1826 0.168 0.194 0.261 0.17 0.214 0.164 0.25 0.202 0.158 0.2037 0.2 0.214 0.321 0.194 0.221 0.201 0.263 0.24 0.179 0.2198 0.191 0.209 0.378 0.233 0.218 0.226 0.231 0.301 0.2 0.2419 0.206 0.172 0.32 0.211 0.211 0.245 0.157 0.262 0.171 0.195

10 0.259 0.238 0.32 0.243 0.252 0.328 0.165 0.278 0.207 0.23111 0.279 0.234 0.28 0.247 0.23 0.342 0.132 0.254 0.212 0.22512 0.254 0.209 0.28 0.209 0.189 0.296 0.157 0.246 0.198 0.23713 0.251 0.268 0.332 0.208 0.261 0.334 0.194 0.318 0.283 0.331

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 2.47E+05 1.58E+05 9.40E+04 6.34E+04 4.23E+04 2.90E+04 1.92E+04 1.25E+04 7.02E+03 4.61E+031994 2.22E+05 1.83E+05 1.01E+05 6.77E+04 4.55E+04 3.01E+04 2.01E+04 1.29E+04 8.46E+03 4.68E+031995 1.94E+05 1.64E+05 1.02E+05 6.67E+04 4.60E+04 3.12E+04 2.03E+04 1.33E+04 8.57E+03 5.83E+031996 2.06E+05 1.43E+05 9.64E+04 6.82E+04 4.49E+04 3.01E+04 1.97E+04 1.21E+04 7.45E+03 5.10E+031997 2.07E+05 1.53E+05 1.01E+05 7.31E+04 4.96E+04 3.16E+04 2.08E+04 1.33E+04 7.82E+03 4.93E+031998 2.26E+05 1.53E+05 9.81E+04 6.96E+04 4.97E+04 3.34E+04 2.09E+04 1.37E+04 8.75E+03 5.18E+031999 2.19E+05 1.67E+05 1.05E+05 7.35E+04 5.07E+04 3.54E+04 2.32E+04 1.40E+04 8.93E+03 5.61E+032000 2.09E+05 1.62E+05 1.05E+05 7.20E+04 4.98E+04 3.31E+04 2.26E+04 1.46E+04 9.09E+03 6.25E+032001 2.09E+05 1.55E+05 1.07E+05 7.54E+04 5.09E+04 3.45E+04 2.21E+04 1.45E+04 8.87E+03 5.73E+032002 2.07E+05 1.54E+05 1.00E+05 7.84E+04 5.41E+04 3.59E+04 2.41E+04 1.51E+04 9.75E+03 6.12E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.53E+05 1.01E+05 7.24E+04 5.49E+04 3.71E+04 2.42E+04 1.60E+04 9.84E+03 6.65E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

2.08E+05 1.53E+05 9.79E+04 6.92E+04 4.77E+04 3.23E+04 2.13E+04 1.36E+04 8.59E+03 5.56E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.088 0.0975 0.0818 0.087 0.0909 0.0976 0.1095 0.1156 0.1323 0.1494

10

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13

1993 3.19E+03 1.98E+03 1.50E+031994 2.91E+03 1.98E+03 1.26E+031995 3.02E+03 1.89E+03 1.31E+031996 3.47E+03 1.87E+03 1.17E+031997 3.27E+03 2.22E+03 1.24E+031998 3.14E+03 2.13E+03 1.50E+031999 3.06E+03 1.83E+03 1.30E+032000 3.89E+03 2.19E+03 1.28E+032001 3.87E+03 2.47E+03 1.40E+032002 3.81E+03 2.56E+03 1.66E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

4.04E+03 2.54E+03 1.70E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

3.49E+03 2.19E+03 1.40E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1645 0.184 0.2011

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

1 -0.24 -0.17 0.08 0.14 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.01 -0.032 -0.13 -0.15 -0.05 0.07 0.07 0.13 0.17 0.16 0.03 0.043 -0.12 -0.17 -0.11 -0.07 0 0.05 0.16 0.13 0.07 0.074 0.35 0.27 0.27 -0.3 -0.22 0.03 0.36 -0.06 -0.24 0.055 0.15 0.29 0.06 -0.31 -0.32 0.18 0.53 0.06 -0.32 0.036 -0.09 0.19 -0.13 -0.43 -0.29 0.12 0.64 0.23 -0.38 0.057 -0.31 0.03 -0.36 -0.57 -0.27 0.07 0.62 0.35 -0.33 0.078 -0.81 -0.19 -0.68 -0.61 -0.35 -0.03 0.63 0.42 -0.41 0.199 -0.65 -0.14 -0.69 -0.83 -0.37 -0.11 0.58 0.5 -0.47 0.2

10 -0.51 0.04 -0.46 -0.73 -0.5 -0.17 0.56 0.4 -0.43 0.1511 -0.34 0.07 -0.41 -0.47 -0.65 -0.23 0.64 0.34 -0.37 0.2912 -0.37 0 -0.28 -0.17 -0.29 -0.15 0.42 0.19 -0.37 0.1313 0.03 0.1 0.06 0.22 0.3 0.57 0.75 0.1 -0.19 0.23

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.17 -0.07 0.07 0.02 0.01 -0.09 -0.05 0 0 02 -0.03 -0.06 0.02 -0.06 0.02 -0.06 -0.04 -0.07 0.01 0.013 0 0.02 0.03 -0.06 0.02 -0.06 -0.02 -0.06 -0.08 04 -0.32 0.02 0.21 -0.14 0.19 -0.21 0.14 -0.06 -0.04 0.185 -0.37 -0.16 0.2 -0.02 0.11 -0.16 0.2 -0.05 -0.05 0.186 -0.33 -0.19 0.23 -0.03 0.07 -0.13 0.17 0 -0.12 0.167 -0.29 -0.22 0.3 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 0.08 0.04 -0.13 0.18 -0.41 -0.32 0.39 0.09 -0.11 -0.01 -0.11 0.2 -0.09 0.139 -0.2 -0.38 0.36 0.12 -0.01 0.2 -0.36 0.19 -0.11 0.05

10 -0.12 -0.21 0.21 0.11 0.01 0.34 -0.47 0.1 -0.07 0.0711 -0.01 -0.2 0.11 0.16 -0.05 0.42 -0.65 0.05 -0.02 0.0712 -0.04 -0.24 0.18 0.06 -0.17 0.34 -0.41 0.08 -0.02 0.213 -0.05 0.01 0.35 0.06 0.15 0.46 -0.21 0.34 0.34 0.53

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Mean Log q -6.4023 -6.2752 -6.1445 -6.0137 -5.9427 -6.0749 -5.9245 -5.9567 -6.0273 -6.0273 S.E(Log q) 0.1847 0.2106 0.2245 0.224 0.284 0.3071 0.2852 0.3219 0.2409 0.3404

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0 -45.758 12.25 0 20 0.09 -11.892 0.14 -20.472 11.19 0.53 20 0.07 -6.63 0.16 -12.588 10.69 0.37 20 0.07 -6.55

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

4 0.24 -8.057 10 0.39 20 0.07 -6.45 0.21 -8.383 9.83 0.33 20 0.08 -6.286 0.19 -7.863 9.57 0.26 20 0.09 -6.147 0.23 -7.276 9.04 0.33 20 0.09 -6.018 0.18 -8.552 8.86 0.27 20 0.1 -5.949 0.17 -7.614 8.54 0.2 20 0.12 -6.07

10 0.25 -6.764 7.94 0.34 20 0.13 -5.9211 0.26 -7.298 7.59 0.39 20 0.13 -5.9612 0.4 -5.712 7.02 0.6 20 0.12 -6.0313 0.4 -4.816 6.68 0.5 20 0.15 -5.811

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 153173 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.002

P shrinkage m 153323 0.1 0 0.002

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

153173 0.3 0 1 0 0.002

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 101469 0.212 0.007 0.03 2 1 0.122

P shrinkage m 97927 0.08 0 0.126

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

101469 0.21 0.01 2 0.034 0.123

Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 72443 0.174 0.005 0.03 3 1 0.13

P shrinkage m 69222 0.09 0 0.136

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

72443 0.17 0 3 0.028 0.13

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 54902 0.151 0.066 0.43 4 1 0.16

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

54902 0.15 0.07 4 0.434 0.16

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 37077 0.137 0.053 0.38 5 1 0.181

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

37077 0.14 0.05 5 0.385 0.182

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 24160 0.126 0.039 0.31 6 1 0.202

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

24160 0.13 0.04 6 0.306 0.203

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15980 0.119 0.038 0.32 7 1 0.217

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

15980 0.12 0.04 7 0.32 0.219

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 9835 0.115 0.048 0.42 8 1 0.239

Weighted prediction :

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

9835 0.11 0.05 8 0.42 0.241

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6645 0.114 0.037 0.33 9 1 0.193

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

6645 0.11 0.04 9 0.325 0.195

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4038 0.114 0.04 0.35 10 1 0.228

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

4038 0.11 0.04 10 0.351 0.231

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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1991

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2543 0.113 0.033 0.29 11 1 0.221

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2543 0.11 0.03 11 0.295 0.225

1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1990

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1698 0.111 0.049 0.44 12 1 0.232

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1698 0.11 0.05 12 0.436 0.237

Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12

Year class = 1989

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1017 0.112 0.084 0.76 13 1 0.32

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1017 0.11 0.08 13 0.756 0.331

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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 15:52

Extended Survivors Analysis

males INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2

Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 21 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.0012 0.093 0.069 0.079 0.078 0.078 0.094 0.1 0.066 0.117 0.0563 0.347 0.432 0.43 0.309 0.336 0.262 0.382 0.27 0.317 0.1864 0.571 0.788 0.788 0.593 0.69 0.648 0.68 0.609 0.568 0.4665 0.608 0.908 0.905 0.678 0.792 0.725 0.76 0.747 0.692 0.4816 0.634 0.789 0.747 0.669 0.86 0.589 0.663 0.659 0.629 0.4487 0.676 0.732 0.57 0.672 1.047 0.49 0.627 0.614 0.559 0.4998 0.61 0.654 0.622 0.54 1.064 0.489 0.505 0.663 0.523 0.5449 0.903 1.123 0.815 0.756 0.904 0.57 0.763 0.873 0.703 0.589

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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 2.60E+05 2.28E+05 1.77E+05 8.78E+04 3.09E+04 1.06E+04 4.04E+03 1.57E+03 4.85E+021994 2.61E+05 1.93E+05 1.54E+05 9.26E+04 3.68E+04 1.25E+04 4.15E+03 1.52E+03 6.33E+021995 2.45E+05 1.93E+05 1.33E+05 7.39E+04 3.12E+04 1.10E+04 4.20E+03 1.48E+03 5.86E+021996 2.24E+05 1.82E+05 1.32E+05 6.43E+04 2.49E+04 9.35E+03 3.86E+03 1.76E+03 5.88E+021997 2.40E+05 1.66E+05 1.24E+05 7.19E+04 2.63E+04 9.37E+03 3.55E+03 1.46E+03 7.59E+021998 2.37E+05 1.78E+05 1.14E+05 6.59E+04 2.67E+04 8.83E+03 2.94E+03 9.22E+02 3.73E+021999 2.42E+05 1.75E+05 1.20E+05 6.48E+04 2.55E+04 9.58E+03 3.63E+03 1.33E+03 4.19E+022000 3.26E+05 1.79E+05 1.18E+05 6.06E+04 2.43E+04 8.84E+03 3.66E+03 1.44E+03 5.96E+022001 2.51E+05 2.41E+05 1.24E+05 6.65E+04 2.44E+04 8.54E+03 3.39E+03 1.47E+03 5.48E+022002 2.59E+05 1.86E+05 1.59E+05 6.69E+04 2.79E+04 9.04E+03 3.37E+03 1.43E+03 6.44E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.92E+05 1.30E+05 9.79E+04 3.11E+04 1.28E+04 4.28E+03 1.52E+03 6.17E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

2.68E+05 2.01E+05 1.39E+05 7.20E+04 2.77E+04 9.71E+03 3.64E+03 1.38E+03 5.26E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1422 0.1515 0.1504 0.1322 0.1248 0.1127 0.1126 0.1841 0.26091

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.15 -0.15 -0.29 -0.22 -0.19 -0.25 -0.22 -0.15 -0.15 -0.092 0.53 1.18 0.33 0.06 0.31 0 -0.03 0.31 -0.35 -0.573 0.66 0.83 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.31 -0.07 -0.02 -0.2 -0.244 0.32 0.12 -0.14 -0.08 -0.23 0.14 -0.07 -0.39 -0.14 -0.045 0.31 -0.05 -0.08 -0.03 -0.17 -0.05 -0.01 -0.49 -0.14 -0.116 0.45 -0.01 -0.04 -0.23 -0.14 0.06 -0.11 -0.46 -0.46 -0.167 0.08 0.15 0.11 -0.4 -0.11 0.05 0.01 -0.34 -0.55 -0.118 0.06 -0.14 0.18 -0.3 -0.23 0.17 -0.25 -0.14 -0.77 0.019 0 -0.01 0.03 -0.04 0.1 0.13 -0.03 0.1 0.05 0.5

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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020.14 0.1 0.12 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.04 -0.2 0.020.04 -0.41 0.04 0 -0.08 0.24 0.22 -0.16 0.42 -0.02

-0.02 0.05 0.37 0.01 0.01 -0.1 0.18 -0.12 0.04 -0.19-0.19 -0.02 0.29 -0.02 0.05 0.12 0.08 0.01 -0.05 0.05-0.25 0 0.32 0 0.07 0.12 0.08 0.1 0.03 -0.03

-0.2 -0.14 0.13 -0.01 0.15 -0.08 -0.06 -0.02 -0.06 -0.1-0.14 -0.21 -0.14 -0.01 0.34 -0.27 -0.11 -0.09 -0.18 0-0.24 -0.32 -0.05 -0.22 0.36 -0.27 -0.33 -0.02 -0.25 0.090.14 0.21 0.21 0.11 0.2 -0.12 0.08 0.25 0.05 0.17

0

catchability and standard error of ages with catchabilityent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-7.3098 -5.9454 -5.2765 -5.1626 -5.1626 -5.1626 -5.1626 -5.16260.2747 0.1727 0.1461 0.1683 0.1814 0.2252 0.2931 0.1984

n statistics :

q dependent on year class strength

Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

-0.05 -26.301 12.54 0.13 20 0.14 -11.74

q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

0.24 -5.797 11.05 0.24 20 0.14 -7.310.42 -3.14 9.38 0.33 20 0.13 -5.950.42 -2.536 8.69 0.25 20 0.12 -5.280.34 -4.029 8.5 0.3 20 0.11 -5.160.32 -4.22 7.91 0.29 20 0.1 -5.250.26 -5.571 7.45 0.27 20 0.1 -5.270.37 -4.803 6.53 0.43 20 0.15 -5.310.68 -5.13 5.42 0.92 20 0.08 -5.03

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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 191589 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.001

P shrinka 201226 0.15 0 0.001

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

191589 0.3 0 1 0 0.001

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 129998 0.212 0.021 0.1 2 1 0.056

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

129998 0.21 0.02 2 0.101 0.056

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 97864 0.174 0.202 1.17 3 1 0.186

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

97864 0.17 0.2 3 1.165 0.186

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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 31070 0.152 0.048 0.32 4 1 0.466

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

31070 0.15 0.05 4 0.317 0.466

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12769 0.146 0.052 0.36 5 1 0.481

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

12769 0.15 0.05 5 0.357 0.481

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4280 0.156 0.049 0.32 6 1 0.448

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

4280 0.16 0.05 6 0.316 0.448

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1515 0.162 0.026 0.16 7 1 0.499

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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

1515 0.16 0.03 7 0.161 0.499

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 617 0.164 0.043 0.26 8 1 0.544

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

617 0.16 0.04 8 0.264 0.544

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 265 0.162 0.061 0.37 9 1 0.589

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

265 0.16 0.06 9 0.375 0.589

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 17:46

Extended Survivors Analysis

females INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00100

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2

109 0.0016 0.0612 0.0667 0.0809 0.1043 0.1161 0.1079 0.1068 0.1048 0.1006

Iteration 30 0.0016 0.0612 0.0667 0.0809 0.1042 0.116 0.1078 0.1067 0.1047 0.1005

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.1226 0.1013 0.1105 Iteration 30 0.1225 0.1012 0.1103

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.0022 0.094 0.044 0.069 0.067 0.07 0.112 0.073 0.063 0.162 0.0613 0.087 0.066 0.094 0.075 0.07 0.072 0.06 0.056 0.089 0.0674 0.125 0.091 0.144 0.106 0.117 0.107 0.076 0.091 0.143 0.0815 0.186 0.104 0.154 0.138 0.17 0.121 0.099 0.126 0.188 0.1046 0.186 0.1 0.139 0.15 0.187 0.113 0.118 0.153 0.183 0.1167 0.203 0.108 0.126 0.164 0.171 0.126 0.129 0.173 0.181 0.1088 0.223 0.129 0.1 0.185 0.166 0.127 0.161 0.18 0.169 0.1079 0.19 0.123 0.084 0.164 0.161 0.127 0.186 0.189 0.128 0.105

10 0.148 0.125 0.089 0.156 0.12 0.109 0.181 0.184 0.116 0.111 0.195 0.146 0.11 0.222 0.152 0.112 0.232 0.223 0.122 0.12312 0.183 0.141 0.094 0.21 0.139 0.111 0.18 0.226 0.1 0.10113 0.158 0.134 0.119 0.2 0.152 0.145 0.218 0.212 0.117 0.11

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 3.45E+05 2.75E+05 2.11E+05 1.50E+05 9.89E+04 6.69E+04 3.98E+04 2.25E+04 1.37E+04 8.77E+031994 3.12E+05 2.55E+05 2.05E+05 1.58E+05 1.08E+05 6.73E+04 4.55E+04 2.66E+04 1.47E+04 9.26E+031995 2.85E+05 2.31E+05 2.00E+05 1.57E+05 1.18E+05 7.99E+04 4.98E+04 3.34E+04 1.91E+04 1.07E+041996 2.66E+05 2.11E+05 1.76E+05 1.49E+05 1.11E+05 8.31E+04 5.69E+04 3.60E+04 2.48E+04 1.44E+041997 2.60E+05 1.97E+05 1.61E+05 1.34E+05 1.10E+05 7.93E+04 5.86E+04 3.96E+04 2.45E+04 1.72E+041998 2.93E+05 1.92E+05 1.50E+05 1.23E+05 9.75E+04 7.58E+04 5.38E+04 4.04E+04 2.74E+04 1.71E+041999 3.04E+05 2.16E+05 1.41E+05 1.14E+05 9.07E+04 7.07E+04 5.54E+04 3.89E+04 2.91E+04 1.98E+042000 2.54E+05 2.25E+05 1.65E+05 1.09E+05 8.68E+04 6.73E+04 5.14E+04 3.99E+04 2.71E+04 1.98E+042001 2.77E+05 1.88E+05 1.73E+05 1.28E+05 8.12E+04 6.27E+04 4.73E+04 3.54E+04 2.73E+04 1.84E+042002 2.87E+05 2.05E+05 1.31E+05 1.29E+05 9.05E+04 5.51E+04 4.27E+04 3.23E+04 2.45E+04 1.96E+04

10

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 2.12E+05 1.58E+05 1.00E+05 9.78E+04 6.68E+04 4.02E+04 3.14E+04 2.38E+04 1.81E+04

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

2.98E+05 2.22E+05 1.69E+05 1.30E+05 9.42E+04 6.57E+04 4.55E+04 3.08E+04 2.04E+04 1.35E+04

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1206 0.1268 0.1491 0.1317 0.1438 0.1748 0.2122 0.2692 0.3308 0.3666

AGE YEAR 11 12 13

1993 5.18E+03 3.40E+03 2.79E+031994 6.19E+03 3.49E+03 2.32E+031995 6.69E+03 4.38E+03 2.48E+031996 7.98E+03 4.91E+03 3.26E+031997 1.01E+04 5.23E+03 3.25E+031998 1.25E+04 7.10E+03 3.73E+031999 1.25E+04 9.15E+03 5.20E+032000 1.35E+04 8.13E+03 6.26E+032001 1.35E+04 8.85E+03 5.31E+032002 1.34E+04 9.77E+03 6.56E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

1.46E+04 9.71E+03 7.23E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

8.96E+03 5.76E+03 3.70E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.3769 0.3894 0.38631

Log catchability residuals.

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99

Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.04 0.04 0 0.02 -0.09 -0.16 -0.17 -0.31 0.17 -0.012 -0.35 -0.68 0.12 0.05 -0.02 0.11 -0.15 -0.52 0.06 0.153 0.23 0.75 0.24 0.32 -0.05 -0.17 0.14 0.23 -0.23 -0.34 0.29 0.4 0.24 0.48 -0.31 -0.31 0.3 0.2 -0.23 -0.075 -0.15 0.06 0.16 0.43 -0.4 -0.13 0.38 0.3 -0.35 0.076 0 -0.18 0.04 0.33 -0.48 0.01 0.38 0.49 -0.4 0.267 0.04 -0.05 -0.07 0.32 -0.47 0.22 0.58 0.56 -0.43 0.438 0.02 -0.11 0.03 0.2 -0.52 0.34 0.66 0.62 -0.39 0.489 -0.19 -0.47 -0.08 -0.17 -0.66 0.2 0.29 0.36 -0.14 0.35

10 0.07 -0.24 -0.35 -0.43 -0.89 0.04 0.02 0.07 -0.02 0.1711 -0.02 0.18 0.24 -0.38 -0.85 0.36 0.07 0.07 0.16 0.2812 -0.53 -0.07 0.22 -0.33 -1.07 0.28 0.24 -0.13 0.37 -0.0313 -0.1 -0.11 0.04 -0.17 -0.5 0.43 0.27 0.12 0.09 -0.02

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0.24 0.32 0.23 0.02 0.11 -0.1 -0.28 0.02 -0.15 -0.092 -0.51 0.49 -0.05 0.19 0.35 -0.17 0.09 0.12 -0.42 0.043 0.07 -0.35 0.32 0.07 -0.09 0.07 -0.19 -0.23 0.24 0.254 0.05 -0.42 0.36 0.02 0.04 0.08 -0.35 -0.13 0.33 0.055 0.18 -0.54 0.16 0.02 0.15 -0.05 -0.34 -0.07 0.34 0.046 0.12 -0.65 0 0.04 0.18 -0.19 -0.24 0.06 0.25 0.097 0.2 -0.58 -0.1 0.13 0.09 -0.08 -0.14 0.19 0.23 0.018 0.3 -0.4 -0.33 0.25 0.06 -0.07 0.08 0.22 0.17 09 0.13 -0.44 -0.51 0.13 0.03 -0.08 0.22 0.27 -0.11 -0.02

10 -0.11 -0.43 -0.45 0.07 -0.27 -0.23 0.19 0.25 -0.21 -0.0611 0.16 -0.27 -0.24 0.43 -0.03 -0.2 0.44 0.44 -0.16 0.1412 0.1 -0.31 -0.39 0.38 -0.12 -0.21 0.19 0.45 -0.35 -0.0513 -0.05 -0.36 -0.16 0.32 -0.03 0.06 0.38 0.39 -0.2 0.04

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Mean Log q -7.4068 -7.0194 -6.759 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 S.E(Log q) 0.2278 0.2476 0.2663 0.2887 0.3054 0.3181 0.2764 0.2708 0.3061 0.3218

Age 13 Mean Log q -6.6937 S.E(Log q) 0.252

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 -0.24 -2.558 12.89 0.3 20 0.2 -11.462 -0.93 -2.672 16.93 0.16 20 0.31 -7.37

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 1.26 -0.436 6.19 0.22 20 0.3 -7.414 0.82 0.361 7.85 0.3 20 0.21 -7.025 1.21 -0.303 5.76 0.17 20 0.34 -6.766 1.19 -0.305 5.87 0.21 20 0.36 -6.697 1.27 -0.483 5.54 0.24 20 0.4 -6.658 1.19 -0.445 5.91 0.36 20 0.38 -6.629 0.92 0.316 6.94 0.63 20 0.27 -6.69

10 0.86 0.803 7.18 0.75 20 0.22 -6.7911 0.91 0.424 6.85 0.67 20 0.28 -6.6112 0.9 0.411 6.9 0.65 20 0.3 -6.7113 0.76 1.842 7.02 0.85 20 0.17 -6.641

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet

12

E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 193542 0.3 0 0 1 0.144 0.002

P shrinkage m 222225 0.13 0.805 0.002

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. F shrinkage m 131256 0.5 0.052 0.003

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

212002 0.11 0.11 3 0.946 0.002

1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 148842 0.218 0.095 0.44 2 0.287 0.065

P shrinkage m 168621 0.15 0.655 0.057

F shrinkage m 98362 0.5 0.058 0.096

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

157662 0.12 0.09 4 0.729 0.061

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 100782 0.184 0.184 1 3 0.863 0.066

F shrinkage m 95587 0.5 0.137 0.07

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

100057 0.17 0.14 4 0.812 0.067

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 101060 0.153 0.109 0.71 4 0.9 0.078

F shrinkage m 72641 0.5 0.1 0.107

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

97779 0.15 0.1 5 0.709 0.081

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 68941 0.137 0.094 0.69 5 0.911 0.101

F shrinkage m 48218 0.5 0.089 0.142

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

66784 0.13 0.09 6 0.707 0.104

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 41228 0.127 0.086 0.67 6 0.916 0.113

F shrinkage m 30187 0.5 0.084 0.151

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

40161 0.12 0.08 7 0.675 0.116

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 32494 0.119 0.082 0.69 7 0.922 0.104

F shrinkage m 21092 0.5 0.078 0.157

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

31422 0.12 0.09 8 0.74 0.108

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 24669 0.114 0.069 0.6 8 0.924 0.103

F shrinkage m 15283 0.5 0.076 0.161

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

23786 0.11 0.08 9 0.691 0.107

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 18715 0.11 0.052 0.48 9 0.927 0.101

F shrinkage m 11563 0.5 0.073 0.159

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

18069 0.11 0.06 10 0.594 0.105

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 14972 0.107 0.062 0.57 10 0.93 0.098

F shrinkage m 10035 0.5 0.07 0.143

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

14561 0.11 0.07 11 0.619 0.1

Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1991

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 9971 0.106 0.068 0.65 11 0.928 0.119

F shrinkage m 6864 0.5 0.072 0.169

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

9708 0.1 0.07 12 0.665 0.123

1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1990

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7479 0.105 0.052 0.5 12 0.928 0.098

F shrinkage m 4696 0.5 0.072 0.152

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

7233 0.1 0.06 13 0.58 0.101

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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1989

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4802 0.104 0.074 0.71 13 0.929 0.11

F shrinkage m 4942 0.5 0.071 0.107

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

4811 0.1 0.07 14 0.665 0.11

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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 12:53

Extended Survivors Analysis

males INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 4

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 8

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .800

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 23 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0.01 0.025 0.003 0.003 0.034 0.031 0.006 0.008 0.0222 0.124 0.149 0.344 0.287 0.235 0.567 0.439 0.317 0.311 0.3843 0.524 0.314 0.693 0.882 0.687 1.032 0.896 1.026 0.822 0.9374 1.019 0.649 0.807 1.17 1.127 1.363 0.941 1.207 0.958 0.7735 0.982 0.841 0.849 0.8 1.242 1.24 0.812 0.873 0.784 0.666 0.765 0.64 0.964 0.382 1.204 0.847 0.826 0.739 0.65 0.5577 0.561 0.749 0.815 0.415 1.015 0.517 0.797 0.615 0.5 0.4798 0.548 0.392 1.059 0.29 1.391 0.333 0.766 0.537 0.428 0.4979 0.864 0.629 0.742 0.582 0.769 0.67 0.628 0.562 0.47 0.431

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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 2.17E+05 8.47E+04 5.45E+04 3.05E+04 1.23E+04 4.27E+03 2.18E+03 9.37E+02 4.04E+021994 2.51E+05 1.61E+05 5.54E+04 2.39E+04 8.16E+03 3.43E+03 1.47E+03 9.21E+02 4.02E+021995 1.95E+05 1.84E+05 1.03E+05 3.00E+04 9.24E+03 2.61E+03 1.34E+03 5.16E+02 4.61E+021996 2.31E+05 1.41E+05 9.65E+04 3.80E+04 9.92E+03 2.93E+03 7.37E+02 4.39E+02 1.32E+021997 3.24E+05 1.70E+05 7.84E+04 2.96E+04 8.73E+03 3.30E+03 1.48E+03 3.60E+02 2.43E+021998 2.91E+05 2.39E+05 9.98E+04 2.92E+04 7.10E+03 1.87E+03 7.34E+02 3.98E+02 6.64E+011999 2.38E+05 2.08E+05 1.01E+05 2.63E+04 5.54E+03 1.52E+03 5.93E+02 3.24E+02 2.11E+022000 2.60E+05 1.71E+05 9.94E+04 3.04E+04 7.61E+03 1.82E+03 4.94E+02 1.98E+02 1.12E+022001 2.47E+05 1.92E+05 9.22E+04 2.64E+04 6.74E+03 2.35E+03 6.45E+02 1.98E+02 8.58E+012002 2.42E+05 1.82E+05 1.04E+05 3.00E+04 7.51E+03 2.28E+03 9.10E+02 2.90E+02 9.56E+01

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.75E+05 9.16E+04 3.02E+04 1.03E+04 2.87E+03 9.68E+02 4.18E+02 1.31E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

2.20E+05 1.57E+05 8.49E+04 3.00E+04 8.67E+03 2.81E+03 1.07E+03 4.50E+02 1.94E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.2885 0.3031 0.233 0.1279 0.2579 0.3877 0.5323 0.5879 0.71731

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

1 0.21 0.32 0.4 0.58 0.49 0.34 -0.09 0.37 0.4 -0.632 0.08 -0.03 0 -0.04 0.15 0.26 -0.19 -0.14 0.01 0.093 0.01 -0.05 -0.06 -0.15 -0.09 0.07 -0.1 -0.08 -0.14 -0.054 -0.14 -0.43 -0.3 -0.37 -0.55 -0.1 -0.27 -0.38 -0.39 -0.355 0.04 -0.43 -0.59 -0.5 -0.82 0.19 -0.01 -0.37 -0.72 -0.36 -0.05 -0.16 -0.67 -0.52 -1.16 0.18 0.24 -0.28 -0.91 -0.377 0.09 -0.3 -0.14 -0.2 -1.21 0.11 0.4 -0.05 -0.76 -0.498 -0.02 -0.02 -0.38 0.38 -1.14 -0.01 0.38 0.15 0.04 -0.699 0.25 -0.01 -0.12 0.04 -0.36 0.31 0.31 0.03 -0.1 -0.05

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -2.67 0.18 0.73 -0.57 -0.68 0.66 0.84 -0.16 0.08 0.752 -0.06 -0.22 0 0.03 -0.11 0 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.173 0.08 -0.01 -0.13 -0.04 0.04 -0.01 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.14 -0.09 -0.22 -0.14 0.12 0.21 0.25 0.11 0.32 0.22 0.125 -0.02 0.13 0.02 -0.14 0.41 0.26 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.076 -0.05 0.08 0.35 -0.66 0.59 0.1 0.3 0.16 0.15 0.117 -0.23 0.36 0.32 -0.45 0.56 -0.26 0.4 0.11 0.02 0.098 -0.19 -0.21 0.64 -0.74 0.93 -0.63 0.42 0.04 -0.06 0.199 0.26 0.25 0.29 -0.05 0.35 0.06 0.23 0.09 0.03 0.05

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -5.0289 -5.1345 -5.3444 -5.4747 -5.5402 -5.5402 S.E(Log q) 0.2533 0.288 0.4223 0.4039 0.5225 0.2046

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.58 0.43 10.85 0.09 20 0.94 -9.792 0.42 4.875 9.54 0.88 20 0.12 -6.223 0.39 5.712 8.97 0.9 20 0.08 -5.29

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

4 1.47 -0.517 2.56 0.11 20 0.38 -5.035 2.07 -1.654 0.94 0.19 20 0.55 -5.136 1.77 -1.378 3.35 0.24 20 0.72 -5.347 1.11 -0.417 5.31 0.59 20 0.47 -5.478 1.24 -0.704 5.4 0.46 20 0.66 -5.549 0.89 2.197 5.4 0.97 20 0.12 -5.42

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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 369715 1.008 0 0 1 0.072 0.011

P shrinka 157007 0.3 0.812 0.025

F shrinka 237896 0.8 0.117 0.017

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

175238 0.27 0.56 3 2.037 0.022

1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 108164 0.287 0.026 0.09 2 0.293 0.334

P shrinka 84915 0.23 0.652 0.409

F shrinka 93456 0.8 0.055 0.378

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

91636 0.18 0.11 4 0.641 0.384

Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 31795 0.21 0.042 0.2 3 0.111 0.906

P shrinka 29967 0.13 0.867 0.942

F shrinka 31713 0.8 0.022 0.908

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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

30203 0.11 0.03 5 0.256 0.937

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 11366 0.192 0.055 0.29 4 0.854 0.72

F shrinka 5630 0.8 0.146 1.14

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

10259 0.2 0.14 5 0.702 0.773

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3191 0.201 0.037 0.18 5 0.856 0.611

F shrinka 1544 0.8 0.144 1.008

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

2874 0.21 0.13 6 0.613 0.66

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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1104 0.218 0.038 0.17 6 0.824 0.503

F shrinka 522 0.8 0.176 0.867

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

968 0.23 0.13 7 0.578 0.557

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 462 0.225 0.021 0.09 7 0.83 0.442

F shrinka 254 0.8 0.17 0.699

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

418 0.23 0.1 8 0.412 0.479

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 146 0.237 0.03 0.13 8 0.802 0.454

F shrinka 83 0.8 0.198 0.701

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

131 0.25 0.09 9 0.376 0.497

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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 49 0.217 0.028 0.13 9 0.875 0.41

F shrinkage mean 30 0.8 0.125 0.602

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

46 0.21 0.06 10 0.292 0.431

11

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data. Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 16:20

Extended Survivors Analysis

females INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00239

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2

109 0.0265 0.4565 0.152 0.1293 0.1122 0.0804 0.0834 0.0924 0.104 0.1087

Iteration 30 0.0264 0.4564 0.1519 0.1293 0.1122 0.0803 0.0833 0.0923 0.1038 0.1085

Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.1432 0.2331 0.2437 Iteration 30 0.1429 0.2327 0.2431

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0.005 0.04 0.003 0.004 0.042 0.036 0.002 0.009 0.0262 0.084 0.191 0.466 0.286 0.247 0.587 0.394 0.166 0.269 0.4563 0.087 0.078 0.224 0.223 0.112 0.256 0.213 0.152 0.149 0.1524 0.134 0.102 0.224 0.285 0.153 0.281 0.207 0.176 0.165 0.1295 0.199 0.139 0.187 0.308 0.216 0.322 0.187 0.181 0.212 0.1126 0.239 0.201 0.191 0.27 0.252 0.323 0.185 0.179 0.174 0.087 0.229 0.262 0.234 0.217 0.28 0.379 0.202 0.194 0.157 0.0838 0.257 0.275 0.292 0.246 0.26 0.602 0.256 0.23 0.151 0.0929 0.272 0.319 0.314 0.326 0.291 0.897 0.378 0.266 0.186 0.104

10 0.281 0.26 0.303 0.349 0.22 0.643 0.34 0.319 0.23 0.10911 0.372 0.284 0.296 0.461 0.264 0.714 0.3 0.404 0.329 0.14312 0.501 0.377 0.39 0.507 0.441 0.678 0.376 0.391 0.386 0.23313 0.769 0.465 0.475 0.551 0.449 0.453 0.33 0.345 0.306 0.243

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 1.76E+05 1.03E+05 7.17E+04 5.79E+04 4.32E+04 3.15E+04 2.37E+04 1.62E+04 1.19E+04 7.64E+031994 2.29E+05 1.30E+05 7.75E+04 5.38E+04 4.14E+04 2.90E+04 2.03E+04 1.55E+04 1.02E+04 7.44E+031995 1.83E+05 1.69E+05 8.81E+04 5.87E+04 3.98E+04 2.95E+04 1.94E+04 1.28E+04 9.61E+03 6.09E+031996 1.94E+05 1.30E+05 8.68E+04 5.77E+04 3.84E+04 2.70E+04 2.00E+04 1.26E+04 7.83E+03 5.75E+031997 2.77E+05 1.43E+05 7.99E+04 5.68E+04 3.55E+04 2.31E+04 1.69E+04 1.32E+04 8.04E+03 4.62E+031998 2.79E+05 2.04E+05 9.16E+04 5.85E+04 3.99E+04 2.34E+04 1.47E+04 1.04E+04 8.30E+03 4.92E+031999 2.45E+05 1.98E+05 9.29E+04 5.81E+04 3.62E+04 2.37E+04 1.39E+04 8.24E+03 4.68E+03 2.77E+032000 2.42E+05 1.75E+05 1.09E+05 6.15E+04 3.87E+04 2.46E+04 1.61E+04 9.28E+03 5.22E+03 2.63E+032001 2.43E+05 1.79E+05 1.21E+05 7.70E+04 4.22E+04 2.64E+04 1.68E+04 1.09E+04 6.04E+03 3.28E+032002 2.20E+05 1.78E+05 1.12E+05 8.56E+04 5.34E+04 2.79E+04 1.82E+04 1.18E+04 7.65E+03 4.11E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.59E+05 9.26E+04 7.89E+04 6.16E+04 3.91E+04 2.11E+04 1.37E+04 8.80E+03 5.66E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

2.08E+05 1.49E+05 9.01E+04 6.20E+04 4.14E+04 2.75E+04 1.85E+04 1.24E+04 8.04E+03 4.88E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.2289 0.2379 0.1612 0.1344 0.1111 0.1255 0.1717 0.2191 0.2879 0.3683

10

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13

1993 4.58E+03 2.85E+03 1.36E+031994 4.73E+03 2.59E+03 1.41E+031995 4.70E+03 2.91E+03 1.45E+031996 3.68E+03 2.86E+03 1.61E+031997 3.32E+03 1.90E+03 1.41E+031998 3.04E+03 2.09E+03 1.00E+031999 2.12E+03 1.22E+03 8.68E+022000 1.62E+03 1.29E+03 6.85E+022001 1.57E+03 8.83E+02 7.12E+022002 2.13E+03 9.22E+02 4.92E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

3.02E+03 1.52E+03 6.00E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

3.06E+03 1.84E+03 1.04E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.416 0.4564 0.39611

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99

10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

1 0.2 0.21 0.34 0.54 0.34 0.49 0.32 0.56 0.5 -0.52 -0.02 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.06 -0.02 0.07 0.08 -0.053 0.38 0.22 0.39 0.12 -0.15 -0.13 -1.13 -0.42 -0.27 -0.784 0.33 -0.01 0.2 -0.2 -0.41 -0.01 -0.88 -0.16 -0.38 -0.565 0.1 -0.09 0.06 -0.4 -0.59 -0.05 -0.6 -0.28 -0.46 -0.546 0.02 -0.53 -0.13 -0.35 -0.59 -0.01 0 -0.22 -0.53 -0.757 0.23 -0.97 -0.37 -0.35 -0.56 -0.27 0.11 0.05 -0.71 -0.768 0.35 -1.06 -0.53 -0.53 -0.64 -0.34 0.14 0.15 -0.65 -0.959 0.35 -0.85 -0.53 -0.62 -0.97 -0.27 0.21 0.12 -0.51 -1.08

10 0.52 -0.88 -0.25 -0.66 -0.96 -0.3 0.17 0.26 -0.43 -0.8611 0.56 -0.77 -0.15 -0.38 -0.84 -0.33 -0.09 0.53 -0.31 -0.812 0.72 -0.64 -0.04 -0.17 -0.55 -0.16 -0.14 0.48 -0.06 -0.5413 0 -0.04 0.18 0.05 0.1 0.37 0.28 0.25 -0.12 -0.02

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -1.52 -0.18 0.64 -0.29 -0.38 0.33 0.44 -0.52 0.02 0.472 -0.16 0.03 0.1 0.09 0.02 0 -0.03 -0.23 -0.06 0.143 -0.67 -0.46 0.46 0.35 -0.21 0.46 0.51 0.14 0.24 0.374 -0.39 -0.36 0.3 0.44 -0.06 0.4 0.33 0.13 0.19 0.055 -0.09 -0.14 0.02 0.42 0.19 0.44 0.13 0.06 0.34 -0.196 0.09 0.22 0.05 0.29 0.34 0.44 0.12 0.05 0.14 -0.527 -0.01 0.43 0.2 0.02 0.4 0.55 0.15 0.07 -0.01 -0.548 -0.02 0.36 0.29 0.01 0.2 0.88 0.26 0.12 -0.18 -0.579 -0.15 0.31 0.17 0.1 0.12 1.08 0.45 0.07 -0.17 -0.64

10 -0.11 0.12 0.15 0.18 -0.15 0.76 0.36 0.26 0.06 -0.5811 -0.02 0.02 -0.06 0.27 -0.15 0.68 0.05 0.31 0.23 -0.4912 0.02 0.04 -0.05 0.1 0.09 0.37 0.01 0.01 0.12 -0.2713 0.44 0.25 0.14 0.18 0.11 -0.03 -0.12 -0.11 -0.11 -0.23

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Mean Log -6.8881 -6.7321 -6.6356 -6.6345 -6.581 -6.4544 -6.2622 -6.2756 -6.0887 -5.823 S.E(Log q

12

) 0.4819 0.3601 0.3241 0.355 0.3979 0.4695 0.5347 0.4383 0.3989 0.2399

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 13 Mean Log -5.823 S.E(Log q) 0.2035

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

1 0.34 0.827 11.42 0.13 20 0.61 -9.782 0.32 4.848 10.14 0.83 20 0.11 -6.27

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 0.34 2.64 9.86 0.62 20 0.13 -6.894 0.71 0.485 7.97 0.22 20 0.27 -6.735 -1.85 -1.974 18.02 0.05 20 0.53 -6.646 -1.5 -2.31 15.61 0.08 20 0.45 -6.637 -22.91 -1.6 84.23 0 20 8.54 -6.588 3.86 -1.17 -2.06 0.02 20 1.78 -6.459 1.74 -0.747 4.24 0.09 20 0.95 -6.26

10 1.46 -0.878 5.25 0.26 20 0.65 -6.2811 1.26 -0.689 5.59 0.42 20 0.51 -6.0912 0.92 0.542 5.96 0.82 20 0.23 -5.8213 0.72 4.02 6.1 0.95 20 0.09 -5.771

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 254482 0.654 0 0 1 0.114 0.017

P shrinka 149274 0.24 0.886 0.028

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

158634 0.22 0.5 2 2.246 0.026

1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 104601 0.271 0.048 0.18 2 0.182 0.413

P shrinka 90146 0.16 0.818 0.466

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

92624 0.14 0.1 3 0.683 0.456

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 78883 0.241 0.192 0.8 3 1 0.152

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

78883 0.24 0.19 3 0.798 0.152

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 61603 0.204 0.125 0.61 4 1 0.129

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

61603 0.2 0.13 4 0.613 0.129

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 39118 0.181 0.085 0.47 5 1 0.112

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

39118 0.18 0.09 5 0.47 0.112

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 21126 0.17 0.168 0.99 6 1 0.08

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

21126 0.17 0.17 6 0.985 0.08

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 13693 0.158 0.126 0.8 7 1 0.083

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

13693 0.16 0.13 7 0.801 0.083

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 8796 0.154 0.108 0.7 8 1 0.092

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

8796 0.15 0.11 8 0.7 0.092

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5656 0.157 0.11 0.7 9 1 0.104

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

5656 0.16 0.11 9 0.701 0.104

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3022 0.161 0.128 0.79 10 1 0.108

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

3022 0.16 0.13 10 0.794 0.109

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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1991

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1516 0.167 0.116 0.69 11 1 0.143

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1516 0.17 0.12 11 0.692 0.143

1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1990

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 600 0.173 0.098 0.57 12 1 0.232

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

600 0.17 0.1 12 0.567 0.233

Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12

Year class = 1989

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 316 0.166 0.077 0.46 13 1 0.243

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

316 0.17 0.08 13 0.461 0.243

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Management Area J Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 17:52

Extended Survivors Analysis

FU14 IRISH SEA MALESINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 11 years. 1992 to 2002. Ages 2 to 10.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1992 2002 2 9 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 22 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0.069 0.01 0.064 0.052 0.041 0.085 0.102 0.173 0.056 0.0633 0.346 0.224 0.39 0.283 0.392 0.36 0.349 0.367 0.31 0.3914 0.575 0.4 0.609 0.454 0.656 0.413 0.693 0.545 0.465 0.5685 0.96 0.604 0.545 0.619 0.613 0.48 0.822 0.599 0.494 0.6986 1.045 0.611 0.595 0.465 0.488 0.278 0.808 0.616 0.563 0.7267 0.801 0.74 0.85 0.553 0.701 0.187 1.098 0.658 0.564 0.6458 1.198 0.532 1.649 0.577 1.443 0.137 1.002 0.78 0.531 0.5789 0.789 0.553 0.855 0.503 0.517 0.438 0.949 0.705 0.587 0.639

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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 2.93E+04 2.03E+04 1.01E+04 4.68E+03 1.52E+03 6.00E+02 1.50E+02 4.75E+011994 3.15E+04 2.03E+04 1.07E+04 4.19E+03 1.33E+03 3.97E+02 2.00E+02 3.36E+011995 3.35E+04 2.31E+04 1.20E+04 5.29E+03 1.70E+03 5.33E+02 1.40E+02 8.69E+011996 3.07E+04 2.33E+04 1.16E+04 4.83E+03 2.27E+03 6.94E+02 1.69E+02 2.00E+011997 3.53E+04 2.16E+04 1.30E+04 5.45E+03 1.93E+03 1.06E+03 2.96E+02 7.02E+011998 3.46E+04 2.51E+04 1.08E+04 4.99E+03 2.18E+03 8.76E+02 3.89E+02 5.18E+011999 4.29E+04 2.35E+04 1.30E+04 5.30E+03 2.29E+03 1.23E+03 5.39E+02 2.51E+022000 4.45E+04 2.87E+04 1.23E+04 4.80E+03 1.73E+03 7.56E+02 3.03E+02 1.46E+022001 3.64E+04 2.77E+04 1.47E+04 5.28E+03 1.95E+03 6.91E+02 2.90E+02 1.03E+022002 3.41E+04 2.55E+04 1.51E+04 6.86E+03 2.39E+03 8.25E+02 2.91E+02 1.26E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 2.37E+04 1.28E+04 6.32E+03 2.53E+03 8.56E+02 3.20E+02 1.21E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

3.48E+04 2.37E+04 1.21E+04 4.97E+03 1.85E+03 6.98E+02 2.43E+02 6.90E+01

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1396 0.1206 0.1428 0.1904 0.2336 0.4012 0.5 0.83271

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 19922 0.133 0.244 -0.145 -0.426 -0.67 -0.518 -0.59 0

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 0.11 -0.38 -0.02 0.09 -0.08 0.17 -0.06 0.1 -0.04 03 -0.18 -0.32 -0.14 -0.06 0.24 0.32 -0.16 0.05 -0.08 0.044 -0.1 -0.16 -0.11 -0.01 0.34 0.05 0.1 0.03 -0.09 05 0.26 0.11 -0.36 0.16 0.13 0.05 0.13 -0.02 -0.17 0.066 0.35 0.12 -0.28 -0.12 -0.1 -0.49 0.11 0.01 -0.04 0.097 0.09 0.31 0.07 0.05 0.26 -0.89 0.41 0.07 -0.04 -0.028 0.48 -0.02 0.72 0.09 0.96 -1.19 0.32 0.24 -0.1 -0.139 0.07 0.02 0.08 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 0.27 0.14 0 -0.03

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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -4.3549 -3.9387 -3.7968 -3.7968 -3.7968 -3.7968 -3.7968 S.E(Log q) 0.2001 0.1421 0.2073 0.2783 0.3766 0.6037 0.1092

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

2 0.27 1.951 9.29 0.47 11 0.16 -6.09 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 0.76 0.558 5.75 0.4 11 0.16 -4.354 0.76 0.969 5.27 0.66 11 0.11 -3.945 0.73 1.017 5.07 0.64 11 0.15 -3.86 0.85 0.433 4.41 0.52 11 0.24 -3.887 0.84 0.586 4.25 0.63 11 0.33 -3.818 1.16 -0.334 3.43 0.34 11 0.73 -3.729 0.93 2.311 3.79 0.99 11 0.08 -3.761

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 23779 0.3 0 0 1 0.132 0.063

P shrinka 23703 0.12 0.868 0.063

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

23713 0.11 0 2 0.027 0.063

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12778 0.212 0.042 0.2 2 1 0.391

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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

12778 0.21 0.04 2 0.199 0.391

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6322 0.177 0.046 0.26 3 1 0.568

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

6322 0.18 0.05 3 0.261 0.568

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2529 0.161 0.038 0.24 4 1 0.698

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2529 0.16 0.04 4 0.237 0.698

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 856 0.156 0.064 0.41 5 1 0.726

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

856 0.16 0.06 5 0.408 0.726

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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 320 0.169 0.04 0.24 6 1 0.645

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

320 0.17 0.04 6 0.239 0.645

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 121 0.185 0.038 0.21 7 1 0.578

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

121 0.18 0.04 7 0.208 0.578

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 49 0.199 0.029 0.15 8 1 0.639

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

49 0.2 0.03 8 0.148 0.639

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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 17:49

Extended Survivors Analysis

FU14 IRISH SEA FEMALINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 11 years. 1992 to 2002. Ages 2 to 11.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1992 2002 2 10 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 7

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00063

Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0233 0.1883 0.3405 0.3365 0.4247 0.543 0.4104 0.3821 0.5504 Iteration 30 0.0233 0.1883 0.3405 0.3365 0.4247 0.5429 0.4103 0.3819 0.5503

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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0.047 0.003 0.019 0.027 0.021 0.028 0.075 0.195 0.053 0.0233 0.248 0.061 0.175 0.2 0.146 0.151 0.252 0.374 0.24 0.1884 0.359 0.181 0.302 0.298 0.307 0.21 0.302 0.379 0.406 0.345 0.371 0.384 0.379 0.407 0.537 0.265 0.332 0.557 0.413 0.3366 0.355 0.441 0.498 0.499 0.45 0.338 0.53 0.582 0.433 0.4257 0.457 0.424 0.624 0.896 0.515 0.269 0.704 0.706 0.643 0.5438 0.513 0.544 0.779 1.633 0.724 0.089 0.286 0.59 0.477 0.419 0.485 0.48 0.775 0.771 2.229 0.123 0.316 0.531 0.855 0.382

10 0.653 0.505 0.748 0.497 0.492 0.4 0.685 0.707 0.639 0.55

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1993 3.14E+04 2.85E+04 1.84E+04 1.13E+04 7.35E+03 4.31E+03 2.73E+03 2.07E+03 1.01E+031994 3.93E+04 2.22E+04 1.82E+04 1.05E+04 6.38E+03 4.22E+03 2.24E+03 1.34E+03 1.04E+031995 4.04E+04 2.90E+04 1.71E+04 1.24E+04 5.86E+03 3.36E+03 2.26E+03 1.06E+03 6.77E+021996 4.04E+04 2.93E+04 2.00E+04 1.03E+04 6.98E+03 2.92E+03 1.47E+03 8.50E+02 4.01E+021997 3.99E+04 2.91E+04 1.97E+04 1.21E+04 5.64E+03 3.47E+03 9.74E+02 2.36E+02 3.22E+021998 3.89E+04 2.89E+04 2.06E+04 1.18E+04 5.80E+03 2.94E+03 1.70E+03 3.87E+02 2.08E+011999 4.08E+04 2.80E+04 2.04E+04 1.37E+04 7.44E+03 3.39E+03 1.84E+03 1.27E+03 2.80E+022000 2.99E+04 2.80E+04 1.78E+04 1.23E+04 8.03E+03 3.59E+03 1.37E+03 1.13E+03 7.58E+022001 3.18E+04 1.82E+04 1.58E+04 9.99E+03 5.77E+03 3.67E+03 1.45E+03 6.23E+02 5.45E+022002 3.70E+04 2.23E+04 1.18E+04 8.61E+03 5.41E+03 3.07E+03 1.58E+03 7.37E+02 2.17E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 2.68E+04 1.52E+04 6.84E+03 5.04E+03 2.90E+03 1.46E+03 8.58E+02 4.12E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

3.69E+04 2.61E+04 1.78E+04 1.13E+04 6.47E+03 3.53E+03 1.76E+03 8.60E+02 3.87E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1178 0.162 0.1685 0.137 0.1438 0.1595 0.3569 0.6648 1.169

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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 19922 -0.053 0.074 0.165 -0.056 -0.137 -0.248 -0.189 0.14

10 0

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 0.15 0.52 0.08 -0.11 -0.03 -0.11 -0.3 -0.19 0.05 0.093 0.08 -1.02 -0.34 0.19 -0.15 0.05 0.11 0.67 0.26 -0.094 -0.03 -0.41 -0.27 0.11 0.12 -0.09 -0.18 0.21 0.31 0.025 -0.23 0.1 -0.28 0.18 0.44 -0.1 -0.33 0.35 0.09 -0.236 -0.42 0.1 -0.15 0.25 0.12 0 0 0.25 0 -0.147 -0.36 -0.14 -0.12 0.63 0.06 -0.42 0.08 0.25 0.19 -0.098 -0.25 0.11 0.09 1.22 0.4 -1.53 -0.82 0.07 -0.1 -0.379 -0.31 -0.02 0.09 0.48 1.5 -1.2 -0.71 -0.03 0.48 -0.44

10 -0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.01 -0.03 0.05 0.25 0.19 -0.07

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -4.9435 -4.469 -4.2304 -4.0902 -3.8941 -3.8941 -3.8941 -3.8941 S.E(Log q) 0.4155 0.2185 0.2659 0.1899 0.3025 0.7237 0.7307 0.1119

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

2 -0.25 -1.954 11.45 0.24 11 0.23 -6.74 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 0.71 0.452 6.45 0.24 11 0.31 -4.944 1.25 -0.442 3.13 0.28 11 0.29 -4.475 1.04 -0.05 4.05 0.2 11 0.29 -4.236 0.83 0.434 4.87 0.46 11 0.17 -4.097 2.66 -0.982 -3.19 0.04 11 0.81 -3.898 1.77 -0.63 1.39 0.08 11 1.3 -4.039 1.54 -0.949 2.36 0.28 11 1.13 -3.9

10 0.97 1.134 3.91 0.99 11 0.09 -3.84

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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 29342 0.3 0 0 1 0.222 0.021

P shrinkage me 26078 0.16 0.778 0.024

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

26769 0.14 0.1 2 0.73 0.023

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15153 0.247 0.065 0.26 2 1 0.188

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

15153 0.25 0.06 2 0.262 0.188

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6844 0.194 0.111 0.57 3 1 0.34

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

6844 0.19 0.11 3 0.57 0.34

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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5037 0.171 0.19 1.11 4 1 0.336

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

5037 0.17 0.19 4 1.114 0.336

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2898 0.155 0.068 0.44 5 1 0.425

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2898 0.15 0.07 5 0.441 0.425

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1459 0.151 0.07 0.46 6 1 0.543

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1459 0.15 0.07 6 0.465 0.543

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 858 0.154 0.097 0.63 7 1 0.41

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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

858 0.15 0.1 7 0.629 0.41

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 412 0.174 0.084 0.48 8 1 0.382

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

412 0.17 0.08 8 0.482 0.382

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 102 0.22 0.059 0.27 9 1 0.55

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

102 0.22 0.06 9 0.266 0.55

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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 20:56

Extended Survivors Analysis

Combined Males INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 7 0 1 ROI MAL 1995 2002 1 7 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 3

Terminal population estimation :

Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 23 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.006 0 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0012 0.268 0.209 0.146 0.1 0.157 0.068 0.147 0.084 0.138 0.0973 0.739 0.632 0.626 0.441 0.588 0.514 0.691 0.496 0.489 0.3824 0.779 0.678 0.739 0.648 0.713 0.698 1.087 0.723 0.522 0.4745 0.648 0.481 0.617 0.64 0.736 0.61 0.877 1.117 0.544 0.4186 0.403 0.53 0.414 0.625 0.675 0.654 0.763 0.769 0.817 0.3417 0.326 0.339 0.273 0.239 0.647 0.597 0.589 0.527 0.432 0.42

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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1993 1.28E+06 9.20E+05 4.67E+05 1.50E+05 4.19E+04 1.46E+04 4.87E+031994 1.18E+06 9.39E+05 5.21E+05 1.65E+05 5.10E+04 1.62E+04 7.23E+031995 1.35E+06 8.71E+05 5.64E+05 2.05E+05 6.21E+04 2.34E+04 7.08E+031996 1.31E+06 9.99E+05 5.58E+05 2.24E+05 7.27E+04 2.48E+04 1.14E+041997 1.24E+06 9.69E+05 6.70E+05 2.66E+05 8.66E+04 2.84E+04 9.84E+031998 1.07E+06 9.12E+05 6.13E+05 2.76E+05 9.65E+04 3.07E+04 1.07E+041999 1.30E+06 7.93E+05 6.32E+05 2.72E+05 1.02E+05 3.88E+04 1.18E+042000 1.39E+06 9.60E+05 5.07E+05 2.34E+05 6.79E+04 3.13E+04 1.34E+042001 9.55E+05 1.03E+06 6.54E+05 2.29E+05 8.43E+04 1.65E+04 1.07E+042002 4.53E+05 7.07E+05 6.65E+05 2.97E+05 1.01E+05 3.62E+04 5.39E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 3.35E+05 4.75E+05 3.36E+05 1.37E+05 4.91E+04 1.91E+04

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.10E+06 8.81E+05 5.60E+05 2.13E+05 6.70E+04 2.20E+04 8.04E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.3031 0.1182 0.1474 0.2459 0.3454 0.4139 0.40331

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.09 0.58 -0.43 -0.36 1 0.6 0.382 0.16 0.25 -0.3 -0.12 -0.28 0.31 -0.313 0.32 0.39 0.16 0.09 0.03 0.17 -0.124 0.61 0.46 0.85 0.61 0.69 0.72 0.655 0.34 0.34 1.05 0.58 0.53 0.76 0.546 0.58 -0.35 1.04 0.27 0.07 0.43 0.57 0 -0.09 0.06 -0.17 -0.09 -0.07 -0.14

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0.08 -1.6 -0.57 -1.14 2.08 0.01 0.3 -0.34 0.01 -0.092 0.36 0.21 -0.42 -0.71 0.56 -0.14 0.08 -0.33 0.4 0.263 0.27 0.16 0.05 -0.31 0.08 -0.11 -0.05 -0.14 -0.06 -0.034 0.53 0.36 0.55 0.46 0.17 0.1 0.41 0.21 -0.13 0.025 0.42 0.2 0.53 0.59 0.09 0.14 0.37 0.63 0.01 -0.226 0.01 0.19 0.2 0.65 0.14 0.22 0.42 0.35 0.43 -0.37 -0.18 -0.07 -0.02 0.1 0.04 0.24 0.14 0.03 -0.2 -0.54

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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -12.3301 -7.8058 -6.2182 -6.2182 -6.2182 -6.2182 -6.2182 S.E(Log q) 0.899 0.384 0.1617 0.4571 0.4754 0.4016 0.2103

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 1.15 -0.136 12.1 0.08 17 1.08 -12.332 1.26 -0.203 6.26 0.06 17 0.51 -7.813 1.27 -0.631 4.3 0.35 17 0.21 -6.224 5.01 -3.22 -19.82 0.06 17 1.02 -5.875 2.19 -2.442 -0.36 0.3 17 0.56 -5.876 1.22 -0.836 5.07 0.6 17 0.36 -5.957 0.76 2.509 6.92 0.92 17 0.13 -6.271

Fleet : ROI MALES

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 99.99 99.99 1.52 1.03 -0.59 -0.81 -0.24 -0.56 -0.21 0.072 99.99 99.99 0.54 0.48 -0.29 -0.14 0.01 -0.36 0.02 -0.173 99.99 99.99 0.05 0.12 -0.3 -0.04 0.17 -0.04 0.14 -0.094 99.99 99.99 -0.48 -0.25 0 0.23 0.6 0.37 0.42 0.425 99.99 99.99 -0.92 -1.14 -0.1 -0.28 0.2 0.79 0.32 0.446 99.99 99.99 -0.42 -0.56 -0.19 -0.25 -0.28 0.28 0.67 0.087 99.99 99.99 -0.3 -0.32 -0.33 -0.76 -0.49 -0.2 0.06 0.7

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -11.7683 -7.4236 -5.9801 -5.9801 -5.9801 -5.9801 -5.9801 S.E(Log q) 0.8091 0.329 0.1551 0.4143 0.666 0.414 0.4895

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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 0.83 0.226 12.12 0.24 8 0.73 -11.772 0.8 0.235 8.67 0.2 8 0.28 -7.423 1.58 -0.589 1.72 0.15 8 0.26 -5.984 0.35 1.913 10.08 0.61 8 0.11 -5.85 0.44 0.92 9.01 0.32 8 0.29 -6.046 2.29 -0.997 0.64 0.09 8 0.93 -6.057 40.27 -2.175 ****** 0 8 14.24 -6.181

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 307653 0.936 0 0 1 0.458 0.001 ROI MALES 360158 0.86 0 0 1 0.542 0.001

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

335089 0.63 0.08 2 0.124 0.001

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 595134 0.368 0.092 0.25 2 0.437 0.078 ROI MALES 398604 0.324 0.015 0.05 2 0.563 0.115

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

474925 0.24 0.12 4 0.495 0.097

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 367409 0.233 0.156 0.67 3 0.475 0.355 ROI MALES 310546 0.221 0.094 0.43 3 0.525 0.408

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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

336361 0.16 0.09 6 0.555 0.382

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 126091 0.215 0.088 0.41 4 0.47 0.506 ROI MALES 147518 0.203 0.175 0.86 4 0.53 0.447

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

137019 0.15 0.1 8 0.656 0.474

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 43084 0.215 0.05 0.23 5 0.52 0.464 ROI MALES 56464 0.207 0.142 0.68 5 0.48 0.372

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

49058 0.15 0.08 10 0.555 0.418

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 17050 0.236 0.133 0.56 6 0.529 0.375 ROI MALES 21652 0.244 0.075 0.31 6 0.471 0.306

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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

19082 0.17 0.08 12 0.485 0.341

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1945 0.235 0.176 0.75 7 0.679 0.533 ROI MALES 4934 0.31 0.09 0.29 7 0.321 0.245

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2622 0.19 0.16 14 0.848 0.42

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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 20:48

Extended Survivors Analysis

Combined Females INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 7 0 1 ROI MAL 1995 2002 1 7 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 3

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 21 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.006 0 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0022 0.268 0.21 0.147 0.1 0.157 0.07 0.162 0.094 0.154 0.113 0.739 0.631 0.632 0.446 0.594 0.516 0.735 0.569 0.573 0.4424 0.824 0.679 0.738 0.66 0.727 0.711 1.095 0.824 0.665 0.625 0.71 0.535 0.618 0.64 0.763 0.634 0.913 1.142 0.704 0.6376 0.471 0.629 0.491 0.626 0.673 0.703 0.825 0.843 0.867 0.5267 0.459 0.429 0.356 0.305 0.65 0.595 0.677 0.614 0.513 0.469

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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1993 1.27E+06 9.20E+05 4.67E+05 1.45E+05 3.93E+04 1.29E+04 3.68E+031994 1.17E+06 9.34E+05 5.22E+05 1.65E+05 4.70E+04 1.43E+04 5.97E+031995 1.35E+06 8.65E+05 5.61E+05 2.05E+05 6.21E+04 2.04E+04 5.65E+031996 1.31E+06 9.93E+05 5.53E+05 2.21E+05 7.28E+04 2.48E+04 9.26E+031997 1.19E+06 9.67E+05 6.65E+05 2.62E+05 8.45E+04 2.84E+04 9.82E+031998 9.79E+05 8.77E+05 6.12E+05 2.72E+05 9.39E+04 2.92E+04 1.07E+041999 1.16E+06 7.25E+05 6.06E+05 2.71E+05 9.91E+04 3.69E+04 1.07E+042000 1.26E+06 8.61E+05 4.57E+05 2.15E+05 6.71E+04 2.95E+04 1.20E+042001 8.49E+05 9.30E+05 5.81E+05 1.91E+05 7.00E+04 1.59E+04 9.39E+032002 2.69E+05 6.28E+05 5.91E+05 2.43E+05 7.29E+04 2.56E+04 4.94E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.99E+05 4.17E+05 2.81E+05 9.67E+04 2.86E+04 1.12E+04

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.01E+06 8.46E+05 5.40E+05 2.03E+05 6.24E+04 1.99E+04 6.86E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.4388 0.1337 0.1366 0.2285 0.3304 0.4198 0.44861

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : Northern Ireland

Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.18 0.5 -0.5 -0.44 0.93 0.52 0.32 0.12 0.21 -0.34 -0.16 -0.32 0.29 -0.353 0.28 0.35 0.12 0.05 -0.01 0.13 -0.144 0.57 0.44 0.84 0.58 0.68 0.71 0.645 0.54 0.32 1.07 0.64 0.52 0.8 0.576 0.67 0.05 1.07 0.39 0.28 0.46 0.657 0.59 0.12 0.77 -0.06 0.19 0.36 -0.04

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0 -1.68 -0.64 -1.23 2.03 0.01 0.32 -0.32 0.04 0.352 0.32 0.17 -0.46 -0.74 0.52 -0.15 0.13 -0.26 0.47 0.343 0.22 0.11 0.01 -0.35 0.04 -0.16 -0.03 -0.06 0.05 0.074 0.54 0.32 0.51 0.43 0.14 0.07 0.37 0.29 0.06 0.245 0.47 0.26 0.49 0.55 0.08 0.13 0.36 0.6 0.21 0.146 0.12 0.31 0.32 0.61 0.09 0.24 0.45 0.4 0.44 0.087 0.11 0.11 0.2 0.3 -0.01 0.19 0.23 0.14 -0.08 -0.48

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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log -12.2463 -7.7624 -6.1709 -6.1709 -6.1709 -6.1709 -6.1709 S.E(Log q) 0.9131 0.396 0.1531 0.446 0.4798 0.4285 0.2667

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 1.64 -0.601 11.24 0.08 17 1.54 -12.252 2.08 -0.563 1.41 0.03 17 0.85 -7.763 1.1 -0.26 5.46 0.4 17 0.18 -6.174 2.75 -2.705 -5.42 0.19 17 0.49 -5.85 1.68 -2.135 2.18 0.49 17 0.35 -5.776 1.13 -0.719 5.29 0.76 17 0.25 -5.827 0.92 0.508 6.3 0.8 17 0.24 -6.071

Fleet : ROI MALES

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 99.99 99.99 1.4 0.91 -0.68 -0.85 -0.25 -0.58 -0.22 0.472 99.99 99.99 0.48 0.43 -0.36 -0.16 0.04 -0.31 0.07 -0.113 99.99 99.99 -0.01 0.06 -0.36 -0.1 0.16 0.03 0.23 -0.024 99.99 99.99 -0.55 -0.3 -0.05 0.18 0.54 0.42 0.59 0.625 99.99 99.99 -0.99 -1.21 -0.13 -0.31 0.17 0.75 0.51 0.786 99.99 99.99 -0.32 -0.63 -0.26 -0.24 -0.27 0.3 0.66 0.447 99.99 99.99 -0.1 -0.14 -0.4 -0.83 -0.42 -0.11 0.16 0.74

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log -11.6411 -7.3592 -5.912 -5.912 -5.912 -5.912 -5.912 S.E(Log q) 0.7988 0.3062 0.1795 0.4849 0.7485 0.4516 0.4908

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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 1.15 -0.211 11.33 0.26 8 0.99 -11.642 0.77 0.364 8.79 0.31 8 0.25 -7.363 2.96 -1.071 -8.48 0.05 8 0.53 -5.914 0.72 0.294 7.59 0.16 8 0.34 -5.715 0.88 0.071 6.56 0.06 8 0.72 -5.946 4.23 -1.174 -7.68 0.02 8 1.86 -5.947 -40.56 -2.363 131.93 0 8 14.67 -6.051

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 282839 0.95 0 0 1 0.17 0.001 ROI MAL 317012 0.849 0 0 1 0.213 0.001

F shrinka 153270 0.5 0.616 0.002

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

198667 0.39 0.38 3 0.959 0.002

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 561269 0.378 0.11 0.29 2 0.314 0.083 ROI MAL 368166 0.304 0.038 0.12 2 0.486 0.124

F shrinka 354428 0.5 0.2 0.128

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio

417050 0.21 0.11 5 0.504 0.11

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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 332122 0.236 0.151 0.64 3 0.391 0.386 ROI MALES 276581 0.214 0.103 0.48 3 0.466 0.448

F shrinkage m 187863 0.5 0.142 0.606

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

281189 0.15 0.11 7 0.685 0.442

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 102272 0.218 0.106 0.49 4 0.386 0.595 ROI MALES 110352 0.205 0.207 1.01 4 0.415 0.561

F shrinkage m 65725 0.5 0.198 0.817

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

96687 0.16 0.12 9 0.766 0.62

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 30500 0.227 0.042 0.18 5 0.401 0.607 ROI MALES 36461 0.217 0.189 0.87 5 0.332 0.529

F shrinkage m 19168 0.5 0.267 0.845

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

28583 0.18 0.12 11 0.658 0.637

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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12689 0.258 0.1 0.39 6 0.398 0.477 ROI MALES 15476 0.279 0.107 0.38 6 0.328 0.407

F shrinkage m 6396 0.5 0.274 0.795

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

11225 0.19 0.13 13 0.682 0.526

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1732 0.241 0.159 0.66 7 0.53 0.582 ROI MALES 4342 0.331 0.103 0.31 7 0.235 0.274

F shrinkage m 2264 0.5 0.235 0.473

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2290 0.19 0.13 15 0.678 0.469

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Management Area L Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 10:56

Extended Survivors Analysis

FU17_mal INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 8 years. 1995 to 2002. Ages 2 to 11.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1995 2002 2 10 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting not applied

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 4

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 2.500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00014

Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2

109 0.0032 0.17 0.4676 0.9596 1.0447 1.1524 1.0636 1.8086 1.06

Iteration 30 0.0032 0.17 0.4676 0.9596 1.0448 1.1524 1.0636 1.8087 1.06

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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.007 0.0033 0.015 0.046 0.019 0.059 0.055 0.026 0.201 0.174 0.381 0.283 0.241 0.665 0.479 0.5 0.523 0.4685 0.82 0.644 0.623 1.025 1.019 1.227 0.678 0.966 1.062 0.7 0.693 1.031 0.912 0.869 0.638 1.0457 1.108 0.626 0.487 0.997 0.686 0.986 0.793 1.1528 1.738 0.547 0.722 0.794 0.715 0.939 0.578 1.0649 5.863 0.19 0.516 1.51 0.295 2.102 0.352 1.809

10 0.834 0.542 0.795 1.087 0.974 1.049 0.947 1.06

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1995 6.46E+04 4.43E+04 2.76E+04 1.46E+04 4.71E+03 1.66E+03 4.38E+02 1.32E+02 1.17E+021996 6.77E+04 4.79E+04 3.24E+04 1.40E+04 4.77E+03 1.21E+03 4.06E+02 5.70E+01 2.78E-011997 6.62E+04 5.01E+04 3.39E+04 1.81E+04 5.43E+03 1.75E+03 4.78E+02 1.74E+02 3.49E+011998 5.82E+04 4.90E+04 3.64E+04 1.97E+04 7.18E+03 2.01E+03 7.98E+02 1.72E+02 7.69E+011999 6.56E+04 4.31E+04 3.43E+04 1.39E+04 5.24E+03 1.90E+03 5.50E+02 2.67E+02 2.82E+012000 8.03E+04 4.86E+04 3.02E+04 1.57E+04 3.71E+03 1.56E+03 7.08E+02 1.99E+02 1.47E+022001 7.27E+04 5.95E+04 3.51E+04 1.36E+04 3.42E+03 1.15E+03 4.31E+02 2.05E+02 1.80E+012002 6.73E+04 5.35E+04 3.61E+04 1.54E+04 5.11E+03 1.34E+03 3.86E+02 1.79E+02 1.07E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 4.97E+04 3.34E+04 1.67E+04 4.37E+03 1.33E+03 3.13E+02 9.88E+01 2.18E+01

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

6.76E+04 4.93E+04 3.31E+04 1.55E+04 4.83E+03 1.54E+03 5.07E+02 1.61E+02 3.02E+01

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.0933 0.102 0.0955 0.1343 0.2303 0.2072 0.2666 0.4627 2.03911

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 99.99 -0.03 -0.05 0.01 -0.01 99.99 0.01 0.063 -0.07 0.1 -0.14 -0.01 0.11 -0.09 0.02 0.094 -0.02 0.2 -0.51 0.17 -0.04 0.13 0.09 -0.015 0.04 0.32 -0.26 -0.1 0.01 0.32 -0.35 06 0.29 0.41 -0.15 -0.09 -0.1 -0.01 -0.4 0.097 0.34 0.3 -0.5 -0.13 -0.38 0.11 -0.19 0.188 0.77 0.16 -0.11 -0.35 -0.34 0.06 -0.5 0.19 1.93 -0.89 -0.44 0.28 -1.21 0.84 -0.99 0.62

10 0.06 99.99 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 0.17 -0.02 0.1

10

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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -10.5907 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 S.E(Log q) 0.2253 0.241 0.2576 0.3139 0.4029 1.0913 0.0876

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

2 0.04 3.847 11.37 0.8 6 0.04 -17.213 0.14 2.294 11.08 0.54 8 0.1 -12.72

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

4 1.09 -0.087 10.61 0.13 8 0.27 -10.595 1.67 -0.563 10.07 0.1 8 0.42 -9.96 0.83 0.44 9.66 0.54 8 0.23 -9.97 2.76 -1.147 14.5 0.07 8 0.84 -9.938 2.04 -0.881 13.78 0.11 8 0.83 -9.939 1.07 -0.064 10.2 0.14 8 1.25 -9.88

10 0.93 2.632 9.46 1 7 0.05 -9.871

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 52533 0.3 0 0 1 0.103 0.003

P shrinkage me 49279 0.1 0.895 0.003

F shrinkage me 106783 2.5 0.001 0.001

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

49662 0.1 0.05 3 0.487 0.003

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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 35185 0.212 0.037 0.17 2 0.145 0.162

P shrinkage me 33103 0.1 0.853 0.172

F shrinkage me 82575 2.5 0.001 0.072

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

33435 0.09 0.04 4 0.433 0.17

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 16751 0.213 0.016 0.07 2 0.988 0.467

F shrinkage me 15885 2.5 0.012 0.488

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

16740 0.21 0.01 3 0.056 0.468

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4367 0.155 0.034 0.22 4 0.987 0.96

F shrinkage me 4586 2.5 0.013 0.93

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

4370 0.16 0.03 5 0.185 0.96

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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1324 0.154 0.089 0.58 5 0.983 1.048

F shrinkage me 1857 2.5 0.017 0.842

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1332 0.16 0.08 6 0.519 1.045

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 308 0.181 0.121 0.67 6 0.975 1.162

F shrinkage me 550 2.5 0.025 0.803

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

313 0.19 0.12 7 0.616 1.152

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 97 0.206 0.052 0.25 7 0.967 1.075

F shrinkage me 164 2.5 0.033 0.761

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

99 0.22 0.06 8 0.278 1.064

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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 19 0.23 0.149 0.65 7 0.885 1.934

F shrinkage me 68 2.5 0.115 0.972

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

22 0.35 0.21 8 0.594 1.809

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 28 0.222 0.088 0.4 8 0.971 1.055

F shrinkage me 21 2.5 0.029 1.229

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

27 0.23 0.08 9 0.362 1.06

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Management Area M Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

22/03/2003 10:46

Extended Survivors Analysis

Celtic sea males INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 12 years. 1991 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1991 2002 1 7 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 1.500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 25 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.026 0.026 0.033 0.033 0.029 0.03 0.015 0.027 0.035 0.023 0.243 0.253 0.289 0.281 0.258 0.253 0.197 0.186 0.317 0.2994 0.367 0.406 0.39 0.463 0.368 0.365 0.306 0.252 0.433 0.3495 0.595 0.535 0.614 0.583 0.576 0.52 0.437 0.544 0.384 0.8046 0.547 0.49 0.64 0.523 0.575 0.539 0.467 0.819 0.531 0.7777 0.594 0.559 0.561 0.476 0.486 0.411 0.448 0.558 0.497 0.498

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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1993 4.94E+05 3.55E+05 2.54E+05 1.41E+05 7.65E+04 3.00E+04 1.15E+041994 4.45E+05 3.66E+05 2.56E+05 1.48E+05 7.24E+04 3.13E+04 1.28E+041995 4.03E+05 3.30E+05 2.64E+05 1.47E+05 7.29E+04 3.14E+04 1.42E+041996 3.72E+05 2.98E+05 2.36E+05 1.46E+05 7.38E+04 2.92E+04 1.23E+041997 3.33E+05 2.76E+05 2.14E+05 1.32E+05 6.83E+04 3.05E+04 1.28E+041998 4.58E+05 2.47E+05 1.98E+05 1.22E+05 6.78E+04 2.84E+04 1.27E+041999 3.78E+05 3.39E+05 1.77E+05 1.14E+05 6.30E+04 2.99E+04 1.23E+042000 3.34E+05 2.80E+05 2.48E+05 1.08E+05 6.22E+04 3.01E+04 1.39E+042001 5.54E+05 2.47E+05 2.02E+05 1.52E+05 6.21E+04 2.67E+04 9.84E+032002 5.40E+05 4.10E+05 1.77E+05 1.09E+05 7.32E+04 3.13E+04 1.17E+04

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 3.99E+05 2.98E+05 9.72E+04 5.70E+04 2.43E+04 1.07E+04

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

4.30E+05 3.14E+05 2.23E+05 1.32E+05 6.70E+04 2.89E+04 1.21E+04

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.1814 0.1691 0.1571 0.141 0.113 0.1065 0.12091

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1991 19921 -0.09 -0.022 -0.03 -0.043 0.02 0.134 0.2 0.165 -0.11 -0.226 0.12 -0.227 -0.04 -0.11

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.31 0.23 0.13 0.3 0.14 -0.07 -0.05 -0.46 0.16 02 -0.03 -0.1 0.19 0.25 0.16 0.3 -0.6 -0.12 0.17 -0.153 -0.05 -0.09 0.07 0.13 0.06 0.15 -0.27 -0.46 0.1 0.274 -0.01 0.01 0 0.26 0.04 0.14 -0.2 -0.52 0.04 0.055 0.11 -0.08 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.13 -0.21 -0.12 -0.44 0.526 0.02 -0.16 0.13 0.02 0.12 0.17 -0.14 0.28 -0.12 0.487 0.1 -0.03 0 -0.07 -0.04 -0.1 -0.18 -0.1 -0.18 0.04

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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -26.6161 -16.3948 -14.1274 -13.7587 -13.4008 -13.4008 -13.4008 S.E(Log q) 0.2252 0.2567 0.2121 0.2153 0.2554 0.2209 0.1083

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 0.87 0.342 24.89 0.46 12 0.21 -26.622 5.79 -1.899 34.3 0.02 12 1.32 -16.393 1.34 -0.564 14.75 0.24 12 0.3 -14.134 0.54 1.959 12.85 0.68 12 0.1 -13.765 0.43 2.071 12.1 0.61 12 0.1 -13.46 0.62 0.948 12.18 0.43 12 0.13 -13.337 0.86 0.715 12.88 0.74 12 0.08 -13.461

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 401220 0.3 0 0 1 0.962 0

F shrinkage me 348428 1.5 0.038 0

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

399048 0.29 0.03 2 0.094 0

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 299673 0.212 0.153 0.72 2 0.98 0.02

F shrinkage me 220908 1.5 0.02 0.027

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

297850 0.21 0.11 3 0.53 0.02

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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 96769 0.173 0.228 1.31 3 0.982 0.3

F shrinkage mean 122485 1.5 0.018 0.244

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

97182 0.17 0.19 4 1.075 0.299

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 56982 0.152 0.049 0.32 4 0.982 0.349

F shrinkage mean 57134 1.5 0.018 0.348

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

56985 0.15 0.04 5 0.277 0.349

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 23826 0.14 0.21 1.5 5 0.973 0.814

F shrinkage mean 46362 1.5 0.027 0.498

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

24258 0.14 0.19 6 1.351 0.804

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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 10577 0.131 0.184 1.4 6 0.975 0.782

F shrinkage mean 15447 1.5 0.025 0.594

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

10676 0.13 0.17 7 1.26 0.777

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5232 0.141 0.055 0.39 7 0.976 0.499

F shrinkage mean 5874 1.5 0.024 0.455

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

5246 0.14 0.05 8 0.359 0.498

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Management Area N Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 9:05

Extended Survivors Analysis

bay of biscay M+F WG 2002 t0=0 9+

CPUE data from file tuneff3.dat

Catch data for 16 years. 1987 to 2002. Ages 1 to 9.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age COMMER 1987 2002 0 8 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 1.500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 30 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.024 0.018 0.016 0.017 0.023 0.021 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.0182 0.415 0.32 0.339 0.283 0.44 0.387 0.311 0.282 0.327 0.3663 0.712 0.611 0.669 0.606 0.743 0.646 0.566 0.566 0.647 0.6914 0.849 0.668 0.649 0.711 0.657 0.656 0.659 0.62 0.703 0.6335 0.85 0.557 0.639 0.621 0.449 0.561 0.625 0.613 0.673 0.4686 0.845 0.469 0.615 0.539 0.343 0.566 0.415 0.481 0.728 0.3897 0.883 0.586 0.575 0.67 0.263 0.591 0.446 0.333 0.57 0.3488 0.951 0.615 0.594 0.531 0.399 0.642 0.414 0.389 0.513 0.392

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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1993 6.13E+05 4.79E+05 2.68E+05 1.03E+05 3.94E+04 1.63E+04 7.68E+03 3.54E+031994 5.84E+05 4.43E+05 2.46E+05 1.03E+05 3.44E+04 1.31E+04 5.44E+03 2.47E+031995 5.87E+05 4.25E+05 2.50E+05 1.04E+05 4.10E+04 1.54E+04 6.40E+03 2.36E+031996 5.65E+05 4.28E+05 2.36E+05 9.99E+04 4.24E+04 1.68E+04 6.46E+03 2.80E+031997 5.06E+05 4.12E+05 2.51E+05 1.00E+05 3.82E+04 1.78E+04 7.65E+03 2.58E+031998 4.63E+05 3.66E+05 2.07E+05 9.31E+04 4.04E+04 1.90E+04 9.81E+03 4.58E+031999 5.30E+05 3.36E+05 1.94E+05 8.43E+04 3.76E+04 1.80E+04 8.40E+03 4.23E+032000 6.37E+05 3.87E+05 1.92E+05 8.57E+04 3.40E+04 1.57E+04 9.23E+03 4.19E+032001 6.07E+05 4.67E+05 2.28E+05 8.48E+04 3.59E+04 1.43E+04 7.56E+03 5.15E+032002 6.46E+05 4.43E+05 2.62E+05 9.28E+04 3.27E+04 1.43E+04 5.39E+03 3.33E+03

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 4.70E+05 2.39E+05 1.02E+05 3.84E+04 1.60E+04 7.53E+03 2.96E+03

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

6.03E+05 4.43E+05 2.38E+05 9.72E+04 3.84E+04 1.63E+04 7.32E+03 3.34E+03

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.154 0.1694 0.1296 0.0985 0.0959 0.1146 0.1914 0.26421

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas

Age 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.52 0.82 0.58 0.25 -0.44 -0.052 0.35 0.47 0.33 -0.04 -0.34 -0.163 -0.05 -0.07 -0.32 -0.41 -0.35 -0.184 -0.23 -0.16 -0.38 -0.13 -0.28 -0.25 -0.33 -0.32 -0.31 -0.08 -0.24 -0.186 -0.36 -0.45 -0.09 0.14 -0.11 -0.287 -0.19 -0.48 0.04 0.11 -0.07 -0.418 -0.03 0.02 0.21 0.09 -0.01 0.01

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.09 -0.18 -0.27 -0.03 0.34 0.29 -0.19 -0.27 -0.06 02 -0.22 -0.28 -0.17 -0.15 0.33 0.24 0.04 -0.03 0.07 0.063 -0.24 -0.19 -0.05 0.05 0.3 0.19 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.134 -0.12 -0.16 -0.13 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.14 0.22 -0.015 0.01 -0.21 -0.02 0.14 -0.13 0.12 0.25 0.26 0.3 -0.186 0.13 -0.26 0.06 0.13 -0.27 0.26 -0.03 0.14 0.5 -0.247 0.17 -0.04 0 0.34 -0.54 0.3 0.04 -0.22 0.26 -0.358 0.24 0.01 0.03 0.11 -0.12 0.38 -0.03 -0.07 0.16 -0.23

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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mean Log q -17.0641 -14.1092 -13.5594 -13.5014 -13.628 -13.7512 -13.7512 -13.7512 S.E(Log q) 0.2904 0.2211 0.2122 0.1807 0.2109 0.2546 0.2922 0.1706

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 0.95 0.097 16.86 0.24 16 0.29 -17.062 1.04 -0.095 14.15 0.35 16 0.24 -14.113 3.52 -1.528 16.53 0.04 16 0.7 -13.564 -2.17 -4.133 7.11 0.15 16 0.25 -13.55 1.45 -0.451 15.02 0.09 16 0.32 -13.636 0.96 0.051 13.61 0.18 16 0.26 -13.757 0.76 0.665 12.63 0.44 16 0.23 -13.798 0.8 1.338 12.61 0.83 16 0.13 -13.711

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 468951 0.302 0 0 1 0.96 0.018

F shrinkage mean 503961 1.5 0.04 0.017

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

470294 0.3 0.01 2 0.048 0.018

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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 238816 0.213 0.057 0.27 2 0.972 0.367

F shrinkage mean 250678 1.5 0.028 0.352

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

239146 0.21 0.04 3 0.191 0.366

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 101922 0.176 0.122 0.7 3 0.968 0.693

F shrinkage mean 113430 1.5 0.032 0.641

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

102271 0.18 0.1 4 0.559 0.691

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 38485 0.164 0.07 0.43 4 0.968 0.632

F shrinkage mean 35767 1.5 0.032 0.667

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

38396 0.17 0.06 5 0.362 0.633

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 16102 0.164 0.094 0.57 5 0.971 0.465

F shrinkage mean 11832 1.5 0.029 0.59

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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

15961 0.16 0.09 6 0.522 0.468

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 7603 0.165 0.11 0.67 6 0.973 0.386

F shrinkage mean 5355 1.5 0.027 0.512

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

7532 0.17 0.1 7 0.616 0.389

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 2990 0.171 0.15 0.88 7 0.972 0.346

F shrinkage mean 2206 1.5 0.028 0.445

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2965 0.17 0.14 8 0.81 0.348

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 1766 0.16 0.087 0.54 8 0.975 0.39

F shrinkage mean 1261 1.5 0.025 0.511

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1751 0.16 0.08 9 0.513 0.392

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Management Area O Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

10/03/2003 17:43

Extended Survivors Analysis

North Galicia Males�INDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF2.DAT

Catch data for 20 years. 1983 to 2002. Ages 2 to 10.

Fleet First Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 2 9 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 16 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0.048 0.015 0.014 0.018 0.012 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.004 0.0053 0.134 0.249 0.253 0.219 0.383 0.074 0.14 0.071 0.161 0.1474 0.669 0.616 0.717 0.635 0.942 0.329 0.466 0.287 0.598 0.4645 1.054 0.841 1.08 0.907 0.986 0.606 0.565 0.333 0.575 0.5036 1.335 1.052 1.281 0.856 0.666 0.68 0.552 0.275 0.569 0.5027 1.08 0.838 1.015 1.221 0.522 0.541 0.477 0.241 0.281 0.4248 0.88 0.887 0.455 1.371 0.783 0.446 0.421 0.283 0.441 0.5549 0.866 0.718 0.77 0.812 0.574 0.574 0.471 0.367 0.469 0.436

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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1993 6.19E+03 5.05E+03 3.83E+03 1.66E+03 7.72E+02 2.04E+02 1.13E+02 4.29E+011994 5.64E+03 4.83E+03 3.62E+03 1.60E+03 4.74E+02 1.66E+02 5.68E+01 3.84E+011995 4.88E+03 4.55E+03 3.08E+03 1.60E+03 5.67E+02 1.35E+02 5.89E+01 1.91E+011996 3.39E+03 3.94E+03 2.89E+03 1.23E+03 4.45E+02 1.29E+02 4.01E+01 3.06E+011997 3.17E+03 2.72E+03 2.59E+03 1.25E+03 4.07E+02 1.55E+02 3.11E+01 8.35E+001998 4.22E+03 2.57E+03 1.52E+03 8.27E+02 3.83E+02 1.71E+02 7.52E+01 1.16E+011999 4.22E+03 3.45E+03 1.95E+03 8.96E+02 3.70E+02 1.59E+02 8.17E+01 3.94E+012000 4.64E+03 3.43E+03 2.45E+03 1.00E+03 4.17E+02 1.74E+02 8.08E+01 4.39E+012001 3.57E+03 3.79E+03 2.62E+03 1.51E+03 5.89E+02 2.59E+02 1.12E+02 4.98E+012002 1.13E+03 2.91E+03 2.64E+03 1.18E+03 6.95E+02 2.73E+02 1.60E+02 5.91E+01

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 9.19E+02 2.06E+03 1.36E+03 5.84E+02 3.45E+02 1.46E+02 7.54E+01

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

4.47E+03 4.25E+03 3.05E+03 1.44E+03 5.69E+02 2.03E+02 7.80E+01 2.94E+01

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.5674 0.4034 0.4013 0.3875 0.3668 0.3563 0.4971 0.69961

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19962 1.5 1.41 -0.04 -4.41 -2.31 0.59 -0.28 1.86 0.81 0.71 1.123 0.06 0.27 0.33 -1.33 -0.92 0.76 0.48 -0.45 0.29 0.26 0.264 -0.04 -0.08 0.34 -0.33 -0.65 -0.06 0.42 -0.03 0.01 0.11 0.135 0.1 0.2 0.52 0.35 -0.42 0.11 0.52 0.42 0.31 0.51 0.486 -0.01 0.67 0.35 0.75 -0.27 0.14 0.75 0.65 0.54 0.68 0.427 0.37 0.64 0 0.98 0.01 -0.03 0.3 0.45 0.31 0.46 0.788 0.86 0.6 -0.55 0.5 0.43 -0.53 0.33 0.25 0.36 -0.37 0.899 0.47 0.42 0.21 0.45 -0.09 0 0.37 0.23 0.18 0.15 0.33

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log q -13.75 -10.4162 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 S.E(Log q) 1.3146 0.6184 0.3782 0.3921 0.4643 0.4423 0.4523 0.2294

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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

2 2.51 -0.842 21.82 0.03 17 3.34 -13.753 0.88 0.286 10.16 0.35 17 0.57 -10.424 0.8 0.842 8.99 0.65 17 0.31 -9.235 0.79 1.162 8.63 0.75 17 0.23 -8.996 0.7 1.571 8.16 0.73 17 0.23 -8.957 1.01 -0.026 9.17 0.4 17 0.45 -9.138 1.21 -0.622 10.12 0.48 17 0.55 -9.149 0.96 0.526 8.86 0.94 17 0.18 -9.11

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1042 1.368 0 0 1 0.117 0.004

F shrinkage mea 904 0.5 0.883 0.005

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

919 0.47 0.13 2 0.284 0.005

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2539 0.582 0.125 0.21 2 0.389 0.121

F shrinkage mea 1797 0.5 0.611 0.166

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2056 0.38 0.2 3 0.523 0.147

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1527 0.327 0.2 0.61 3 0.585 0.423

F shrinkage mea 1154 0.5 0.415 0.528

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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1359 0.28 0.16 4 0.577 0.464

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1997

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 687 0.267 0.17 0.63 4 0.626 0.442

F shrinkage mea 446 0.5 0.374 0.618

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

584 0.25 0.18 5 0.701 0.503

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1996

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 370 0.243 0.179 0.74 5 0.634 0.474

F shrinkage mea 304 0.5 0.366 0.553

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

345 0.24 0.14 6 0.578 0.502

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1995

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 144 0.233 0.137 0.59 6 0.66 0.429

F shrinkage mea 150 0.5 0.34 0.415

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

146 0.23 0.1 7 0.445 0.424

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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1994

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 69 0.216 0.179 0.83 7 0.674 0.594

F shrinkage mea 91 0.5 0.326 0.479

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

75 0.22 0.15 8 0.68 0.554

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1993

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 33 0.201 0.104 0.52 8 0.755 0.419

F shrinkage mea 27 0.5 0.245 0.493

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

31 0.2 0.09 9 0.471 0.436

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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. FLEET 1

CPUE adjusted to start of year

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1986 0.05356506 0.3089084 0.5504405 0.2853355 0.09578566 0.02764353 0.01161805 0.000692641987 0.03067372 0.3495096 0.5928667 0.3250307 0.2115143 0.08348729 0.01206671 0.001458891988 0.00742596 0.2351302 0.8385972 0.5782103 0.1787763 0.03710106 0.00892855 0.002870251989 0.00013425 0.04671237 0.2513409 0.2977726 0.216911 0.1161246 0.02743707 0.014057531990 0.0012952 0.1005507 0.23416 0.1167123 0.05030307 0.02021434 0.00882351 0.004110741991 0.01513701 0.6411536 0.5747407 0.2688738 0.09780633 0.02811569 0.00425823 0.001379451992 0.00498306 0.3068188 0.7807977 0.4441393 0.1943876 0.04231853 0.01698995 0.00578131993 0.04251757 0.09675505 0.3621898 0.2460597 0.1445676 0.03117823 0.01425234 0.00530031994 0.01352917 0.1932185 0.3569205 0.2151642 0.07917494 0.02209094 0.00798654 0.004482171995 0.01061137 0.1764889 0.3366168 0.2613742 0.1098283 0.02090364 0.00398748 0.002172181996 0.01103846 0.1523202 0.3226267 0.1950472 0.06652367 0.02742309 0.00956906 0.004176591997 0.0065555 0.1815289 0.4220355 0.2137724 0.04713101 0.0141631 0.00417181 0.000975891998 0.00121093 0.02692685 0.07059298 0.07026808 0.03630061 0.01269659 0.00458516 0.000944951999 0.00541486 0.1134611 0.2117874 0.1174102 0.04738001 0.01795779 0.00806132 0.004435992000 0.00163388 0.05346867 0.1531049 0.07243989 0.0254984 0.00906197 0.00524684 0.003696012001 0.00360589 0.1415436 0.3593941 0.1989944 0.07646625 0.01699573 0.01150572 0.005439642002 0.00136537 0.1140405 0.3061126 0.1444061 0.09011209 0.02808891 0.02153517 0.00684205

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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

10/03/2003 18:47

Extended Survivors Analysis

North Galicia FemaleINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF2.DAT

Catch data for 20 years. 1983 to 2002. Ages 2 to 11.

Fleet First Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 2 10 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00015

Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0103 0.0359 0.0814 0.1388 0.2052 0.1919 0.2001 0.2464 0.1877 Iteration 30 0.0103 0.0359 0.0814 0.1388 0.2052 0.1919 0.2 0.2463 0.1877

1

Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0.01 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.017 0.003 0.008 0.006 0.023 0.013 0.037 0.08 0.077 0.096 0.102 0.025 0.031 0.016 0.068 0.0364 0.042 0.111 0.131 0.15 0.226 0.053 0.095 0.034 0.076 0.0815 0.131 0.166 0.193 0.214 0.294 0.082 0.116 0.083 0.152 0.1396 0.269 0.262 0.305 0.229 0.359 0.158 0.239 0.152 0.179 0.2057 0.294 0.288 0.327 0.191 0.309 0.183 0.238 0.13 0.169 0.1928 0.273 0.232 0.331 0.217 0.327 0.209 0.238 0.116 0.16 0.29 0.231 0.201 0.467 0.239 0.303 0.226 0.344 0.162 0.233 0.246

10 0.25 0.248 0.318 0.198 0.22 0.211 0.189 0.138 0.163 0.188

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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1993 6.61E+03 5.09E+03 4.82E+03 3.37E+03 2.57E+03 2.05E+03 1.53E+03 7.01E+02 4.18E+021994 5.16E+03 5.36E+03 4.02E+03 3.79E+03 2.42E+03 1.61E+03 1.25E+03 9.53E+02 4.56E+021995 4.37E+03 4.14E+03 4.05E+03 2.94E+03 2.63E+03 1.53E+03 9.86E+02 8.10E+02 6.38E+021996 3.67E+03 3.50E+03 3.14E+03 2.91E+03 1.99E+03 1.58E+03 9.02E+02 5.80E+02 4.16E+021997 3.25E+03 2.95E+03 2.60E+03 2.22E+03 1.92E+03 1.29E+03 1.07E+03 5.94E+02 3.74E+021998 3.34E+03 2.62E+03 2.18E+03 1.70E+03 1.35E+03 1.10E+03 7.78E+02 6.32E+02 3.59E+021999 2.63E+03 2.72E+03 2.09E+03 1.69E+03 1.28E+03 9.45E+02 7.49E+02 5.17E+02 4.13E+022000 1.65E+03 2.13E+03 2.16E+03 1.55E+03 1.23E+03 8.26E+02 6.10E+02 4.84E+02 3.00E+022001 9.68E+02 1.34E+03 1.72E+03 1.71E+03 1.17E+03 8.68E+02 5.94E+02 4.44E+02 3.37E+022002 6.92E+02 7.74E+02 1.03E+03 1.31E+03 1.20E+03 8.02E+02 6.00E+02 4.14E+02 2.88E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 5.61E+02 6.12E+02 7.75E+02 9.30E+02 8.02E+02 5.42E+02 4.03E+02 2.65E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

3.33E+03 3.29E+03 3.03E+03 2.56E+03 1.96E+03 1.37E+03 9.61E+02 6.64E+02 4.51E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.8299 0.7082 0.5713 0.4816 0.4415 0.4252 0.3916 0.3653 0.381

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : FLEET 1

Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 1.31 1.12 -2.52 0 -0.82 0.54 -1.11 -0.28 0.51 0.63 0.59 0.45 -1.57 -0.04 -0.37 1.01 0.353 0.8 0.99 -0.45 -3.18 -0.58 1.22 -0.06 -0.46 0.44 0.36 0.72 0.77 -0.86 -0.12 -0.88 0.65 0.114 0.15 0.51 0.12 -1.66 -0.67 0.79 0.6 -0.99 0.1 0.22 0.49 0.89 -0.78 0.32 -0.78 0.09 0.245 0.01 0.36 0.09 -0.54 -0.58 0.26 0.5 -0.38 -0.02 0.09 0.33 0.63 -0.84 -0.01 -0.41 0.25 0.226 -0.34 0.33 -0.43 -0.05 -0.55 -0.18 0.16 -0.05 0.05 0.15 0.01 0.44 -0.58 0.33 -0.19 0.03 0.217 -0.22 0.29 -0.44 0.11 -0.2 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.14 0.22 -0.17 0.3 -0.44 0.33 -0.35 -0.03 0.148 -0.62 0.12 -0.47 0.38 -0.23 0.15 0.34 -0.03 -0.07 0.24 -0.04 0.35 -0.31 0.32 -0.46 -0.08 0.199 -0.31 -0.05 -0.75 0.04 0.05 -0.02 0.18 -0.2 -0.21 0.58 0.05 0.28 -0.24 0.69 -0.13 0.29 0.39

10 -0.28 0.14 -0.22 0.12 -0.11 -0.04 0.16 -0.12 -0.01 0.2 -0.14 -0.04 -0.29 0.1 -0.28 -0.07 0.13

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -13.1857 -11.7013 -11.0307 -10.5081 -10.1236 -10.1236 -10.1236 -10.1236 -10.1236 S.E(Log q) 0.8883 0.8852 0.678 0.4345 0.302 0.2598 0.2871 0.3588 0.1675

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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

2 1.49 -0.977 15.69 0.29 16 1.33 -13.193 1.18 -0.387 12.35 0.32 17 1.09 -11.74 1.13 -0.311 11.43 0.35 17 0.8 -11.035 0.93 0.279 10.31 0.59 17 0.42 -10.516 1.05 -0.237 10.26 0.65 17 0.33 -10.127 0.94 0.346 9.93 0.75 17 0.25 -10.118 0.92 0.386 9.84 0.69 17 0.27 -10.19 1.71 -1.569 12.49 0.33 17 0.54 -10.01

10 0.9 0.872 9.75 0.88 17 0.15 -10.161

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 798 0.926 0 0 1 0.224 0.007

F shrinkage mean 506 0.5 0.776 0.011

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

561 0.44 0.4 2 0.91 0.01

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1065 0.653 0.45 0.69 2 0.359 0.021

F shrinkage mean 449 0.5 0.641 0.049

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

612 0.4 0.53 3 1.323 0.036

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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 937 0.48 0.262 0.55 3 0.491 0.068

F shrinkage mean 645 0.5 0.509 0.097

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

775 0.35 0.21 4 0.62 0.081

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 957 0.33 0.2 0.61 4 0.659 0.135

F shrinkage mean 881 0.5 0.341 0.146

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

930 0.28 0.14 5 0.517 0.139

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 818 0.228 0.236 1.03 5 0.784 0.202

F shrinkage mean 749 0.5 0.216 0.218

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

802 0.21 0.19 6 0.898 0.205

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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1995

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 550 0.183 0.115 0.63 6 0.844 0.189

F shrinkage mean 499 0.5 0.156 0.207

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

542 0.17 0.1 7 0.563 0.192

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1994

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 406 0.158 0.099 0.63 7 0.872 0.198

F shrinkage mean 379 0.5 0.128 0.211

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

403 0.15 0.09 8 0.569 0.2

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1993

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 267 0.148 0.152 1.03 8 0.873 0.245

F shrinkage mean 255 0.5 0.127 0.255

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

265 0.14 0.13 9 0.923 0.246

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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1992

Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 197 0.138 0.133 0.97 9 0.888 0.186

F shrinkage mean 185 0.5 0.112 0.197

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

196 0.13 0.12 10 0.882 0.188

1

FLEET 1

CPUE adjusted to start of year

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1986 0.0662085 0.1508831 0.1276463 0.169254 0.1322784 0.1054703 0.04524117 0.03762993 0.027131711987 0.06118169 0.1655591 0.1611828 0.1947256 0.2361829 0.1697007 0.09956991 0.05722894 0.040368721988 0.00155701 0.04506215 0.1012062 0.1303666 0.08844485 0.06900307 0.05087732 0.02759993 0.033169031989 0 0.00289926 0.02070586 0.06414751 0.1129927 0.105095 0.1088255 0.05958673 0.048148651990 0.00748349 0.03829636 0.05720552 0.08243334 0.069152 0.06135704 0.04566554 0.04327675 0.031634841991 0.02491251 0.2065608 0.2318868 0.1864111 0.1310904 0.08742467 0.0545746 0.03546284 0.022923161992 0.00385935 0.04835884 0.1469928 0.1882479 0.1585306 0.1229417 0.06886224 0.03319276 0.026348621993 0.00941435 0.0267035 0.02913086 0.06283805 0.09820622 0.08557473 0.05938181 0.02299255 0.014872681994 0.01612154 0.0689491 0.07198902 0.1009786 0.1023527 0.07444032 0.04673473 0.03088256 0.018174421995 0.01547334 0.04907421 0.08166148 0.08756129 0.1228235 0.07663987 0.05013007 0.05797448 0.03118921996 0.01240242 0.05962147 0.08316936 0.1100728 0.08029883 0.05346643 0.03463744 0.02455159 0.014535831997 0.00956397 0.0526698 0.1026715 0.1136471 0.1201508 0.06998337 0.0612338 0.03146278 0.014441231998 0.00130836 0.00920834 0.01625681 0.0200364 0.03029468 0.02837772 0.02284668 0.02003288 0.010777141999 0.00475301 0.02006979 0.04672771 0.04595127 0.07137485 0.05259059 0.04154127 0.04143475 0.018306682000 0.00214944 0.00735248 0.01602361 0.02816521 0.04075231 0.02331841 0.01545449 0.0170895 0.009127372001 0.00500022 0.02139942 0.03050149 0.06001918 0.04848303 0.03389005 0.02202009 0.02379606 0.012646242002 0.00184803 0.00717202 0.02103349 0.04428244 0.05957229 0.03704453 0.02913456 0.02456458 0.01310568

10

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Management Area Q Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 13:22

Extended Survivors Analysis

FU26+27 West GaliciaINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF2.DAT

Catch data for 15 years. 1988 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Marin 1994 2002 1 7 0 1 Muros 1995 2002 1 7 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 3

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 3 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .900

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning converged after 22 iterations

1

Regression weights 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 0 0 0.011 0.045 02 0.08 0.273 0.351 0.184 0.072 0.07 0.175 0.555 0.1073 0.594 0.903 0.518 0.755 0.774 0.797 0.478 0.591 0.4024 0.93 1.063 0.466 1.02 1.05 1.163 0.744 0.502 0.4535 1.223 0.813 0.604 0.993 1.148 1.533 0.867 0.559 0.6156 1.756 0.93 0.457 0.898 1.259 1.282 1.204 0.711 0.5667 0.851 1.067 0.688 0.948 0.986 0.868 0.768 1.2 0.405

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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1994 1.21E+04 1.20E+04 7.34E+03 3.03E+03 1.12E+03 3.19E+02 1.92E+021995 1.09E+04 9.93E+03 9.04E+03 3.32E+03 9.80E+02 2.70E+02 4.52E+011996 5.31E+03 8.89E+03 6.19E+03 3.00E+03 9.38E+02 3.56E+02 8.73E+011997 3.48E+03 4.34E+03 5.12E+03 3.02E+03 1.54E+03 4.20E+02 1.84E+021998 2.69E+03 2.84E+03 2.95E+03 1.97E+03 8.91E+02 4.68E+02 1.40E+021999 3.25E+03 2.20E+03 2.17E+03 1.12E+03 5.65E+02 2.31E+02 1.09E+022000 4.21E+03 2.66E+03 1.68E+03 7.99E+02 2.85E+02 9.98E+01 5.26E+012001 1.97E+03 3.40E+03 1.83E+03 8.52E+02 3.11E+02 9.82E+01 2.45E+012002 1.22E-06 1.54E+03 1.60E+03 8.30E+02 4.22E+02 1.46E+02 3.95E+01

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.00E-06 1.13E+03 8.76E+02 4.32E+02 1.87E+02 6.77E+01

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

6.66E+03 5.79E+03 4.45E+03 2.10E+03 8.17E+02 2.79E+02 8.97E+01

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

2.9637 0.8848 0.7696 0.6919 0.6449 0.6324 0.69131

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : Marin

Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.8 -1.42 -0.64 -1.44 99.99 99.99 0.49 3.38 99.992 -0.94 0.41 0.42 -0.13 -0.76 -0.97 0.03 1.63 0.193 -0.21 0.21 -0.61 -0.2 0.23 0.14 -0.1 0.38 0.114 0.17 0.17 -0.81 0.02 0.38 0.48 0.24 0.04 0.125 0.43 -0.17 -0.54 0.03 0.39 0.79 0.38 -0.03 0.486 0.77 0.16 -0.6 -0.01 0.58 0.59 0.51 0.01 0.477 0.23 -0.16 -0.15 0.12 0.06 0.11 -0.01 -0.46 0

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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -14.4258 -10.2113 -8.8593 -8.8593 -8.8593 -8.8593 -8.8593 S.E(Log q) 1.8897 0.8342 0.3043 0.3805 0.4585 0.5122 0.2086

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 -1.04 -1.966 2.39 0.21 6 1.54 -14.432 0.96 0.082 10.14 0.44 9 0.86 -10.213 1.26 -1.313 9.05 0.8 9 0.37 -8.864 1.27 -1.004 9.13 0.68 9 0.47 -8.775 1.25 -0.804 9.2 0.61 9 0.52 -8.666 1.09 -0.32 8.88 0.64 9 0.49 -8.597 0.81 3.649 8.04 0.98 9 0.1 -8.891

Fleet : Muros

Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.992 99.99 0.56 2.02 -1.07 -0.04 -0.36 -0.94 99.99 99.993 99.99 0.21 0.87 0.43 0.36 0.71 0.71 -1.87 -1.34 99.99 1.61 1.16 1.5 1.14 1.86 1.66 0.32 0.385 99.99 1.33 1.16 1.33 1.76 2.31 1.17 0.93 0.256 99.99 1.79 0.12 1.35 2.11 2.73 99.99 0.1 -1.367 99.99 2.76 0.49 0.27 2.22 2.09 99.99 99.99 99.99

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q 0 -13.66 -11.5054 -11.5054 -11.5054 -11.5054 -11.5054 S.E(Log q) 0 1.141 1.0381 1.408 1.4968 1.7808 2.0796

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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.44 1.957 10.69 0.77 6 0.4 -13.663 0.58 1.234 10.04 0.6 8 0.58 -11.514 0.74 0.979 9.54 0.71 8 0.44 -10.315 0.75 0.827 9.3 0.66 8 0.47 -10.236 0.43 1.403 7.66 0.56 7 0.57 -10.547 -6.76 -1.073 -31.23 0.01 5 7.37 -9.951

Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

F shrinkage mea 0 0.9 0 0

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

0 0 0 0 0 0

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 2215 0.81 1.138 1.41 2 0.524 0.056 Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

F shrinkage mea 542 0.9 0.476 0.212

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1133 0.6 0.9 3 1.494 0.107

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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 1093 0.303 0.275 0.91 3 0.798 0.334 Muros 240 1.103 0 0 1 0.062 1.

F shrinkage me

034

a 441 0.9 0.14 0.685

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

876 0.28 0.29 5 1.043 0.402

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 545 0.253 0.096 0.38 3 0.794 0.375 Muros 194 0.761 0.691 0.91 3 0.079 0.822

F shrinkage mea 168 0.9 0.127 0.906

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

432 0.24 0.23 7 0.96 0.453

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 210 0.235 0.19 0.81 4 0.776 0.564 Muros 244 0.724 0.205 0.28 4 0.077 0.501

F shrinkage mea 88 0.9 0.147 1.032

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

187 0.23 0.16 9 0.697 0.615

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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 84 0.263 0.114 0.43 6 0.749 0.477 Muros 77 0.852 0.581 0.68 5 0.067 0.511

F shrinkage mea 26 0.9 0.184 1.083

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

68 0.26 0.19 12 0.711 0.566

Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 22 0.243 0.05 0.21 7 0.871 0.393 Muros 37 1.033 0.362 0.35 5 0.017 0.255

F shrinkage mea 15 0.9 0.112 0.549

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

22 0.23 0.06 13 0.267 0.405

11

Marin

CPUE adjusted to start of year

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1994 0.002952 0.171786 0.841419 0.510713 0.245277 0.097754 0.0342731995 0.001428 0.54811 1.585114 0.557407 0.1179 0.044948 0.005491996 0.001523 0.495325 0.477037 0.190206 0.077657 0.027791 0.0106381997 0.000447 0.140203 0.594274 0.438581 0.224621 0.059271 0.0294391998 0 0.048977 0.527381 0.407455 0.186235 0.118422 0.0212171999 0 0.030522 0.352512 0.257349 0.176001 0.059138 0.017212000 0.003714 0.101301 0.215354 0.143786 0.059394 0.023498 0.0074292001 0.031445 0.63962 0.381003 0.1257 0.043049 0.014057 0.0021922002 0 0.068601 0.253736 0.13281 0.097328 0.033062 0.005584

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 16:28

Extended Survivors Analysis

26+27 West Galicia FINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF3.DAT

Catch data for 15 years. 1988 to 2002. Ages 1 to 11.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Marin 1994 2002 1 10 0 1 Muros 1995 2002 2 10 0 1

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability independent of stock size for all ages

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 3 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .900

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00013

Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2

109 0.0131 0.0913 0.1678 0.2038 0.2617 0.3201 0.3544 0.3025 0.272 0.354

Iteration 30 0.0131 0.0913 0.1678 0.2038 0.2617 0.3201 0.3544 0.3024 0.2719 0.3539

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1 0.001 0 0.002 0 0 0 0.02 0.062 0.0132 0.066 0.15 0.314 0.071 0.025 0.024 0.173 0.569 0.0913 0.141 0.397 0.253 0.24 0.167 0.142 0.194 0.28 0.1684 0.275 0.5 0.287 0.465 0.354 0.376 0.332 0.287 0.2045 0.329 0.446 0.286 0.469 0.536 0.521 0.285 0.215 0.2626 0.369 0.271 0.268 0.381 0.591 0.694 0.251 0.209 0.327 0.393 0.248 0.211 0.338 0.546 0.818 0.4 0.146 0.3548 0.57 0.257 0.225 0.327 0.593 0.83 0.347 0.173 0.3029 0.436 0.576 0.277 0.393 0.471 1.067 0.257 0.228 0.272

10 0.415 0.404 0.547 0.573 0.537 0.524 0.273 0.243 0.354

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1994 1.12E+04 9.91E+03 8.85E+03 6.33E+03 4.05E+03 2.47E+03 1.36E+03 5.96E+02 3.60E+02 2.28E+021995 8.78E+03 9.15E+03 7.59E+03 6.29E+03 3.94E+03 2.39E+03 1.40E+03 7.51E+02 2.76E+02 1.91E+021996 4.10E+03 7.18E+03 6.45E+03 4.18E+03 3.12E+03 2.06E+03 1.49E+03 8.95E+02 4.75E+02 1.27E+021997 2.74E+03 3.35E+03 4.29E+03 4.10E+03 2.57E+03 1.92E+03 1.29E+03 9.89E+02 5.85E+02 2.95E+021998 2.43E+03 2.24E+03 2.56E+03 2.77E+03 2.11E+03 1.32E+03 1.08E+03 7.55E+02 5.83E+02 3.23E+021999 3.53E+03 1.99E+03 1.79E+03 1.77E+03 1.59E+03 1.01E+03 5.96E+02 5.10E+02 3.42E+02 2.98E+022000 3.61E+03 2.89E+03 1.59E+03 1.27E+03 9.95E+02 7.73E+02 4.13E+02 2.15E+02 1.82E+02 9.63E+012001 1.88E+03 2.90E+03 1.99E+03 1.07E+03 7.47E+02 6.13E+02 4.92E+02 2.27E+02 1.25E+02 1.15E+022002 1.86E+02 1.45E+03 1.34E+03 1.23E+03 6.59E+02 4.93E+02 4.07E+02 3.48E+02 1.56E+02 8.12E+01

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 1.51E+02 1.08E+03 9.30E+02 8.22E+02 4.15E+02 2.93E+02 2.34E+02 2.11E+02 9.73E+01

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

4.44E+03 5.20E+03 4.26E+03 3.25E+03 2.16E+03 1.40E+03 8.91E+02 5.44E+02 3.12E+02 1.70E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

1.3195 0.8929 0.8218 0.7397 0.6908 0.5736 0.4999 0.5068 0.5146 0.5131

10

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : Marin

Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -2.53 99.99 -1.25 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.5 2.42 1.32 -0.8 0.26 0.8 -0.64 -1.51 -1.42 0.42 2.07 0.73 -0.62 0.52 -0.25 -0.1 -0.23 -0.45 0.09 0.71 0.244 -0.36 0.27 -0.52 0.04 0.01 0.07 0.24 0.25 -0.085 -0.18 0.09 -0.57 -0.11 0.4 0.35 -0.01 -0.16 06 -0.06 -0.61 -0.75 -0.25 0.34 0.56 -0.16 -0.31 0.277 -0.03 -0.69 -1.05 -0.45 0.19 0.74 0.42 -0.9 0.448 0.38 -0.76 -0.96 -0.48 0.3 0.77 0.22 -0.88 -0.039 0 -0.18 -0.88 -0.29 0.06 1.02 -0.07 -0.47 -0.16

10 0.03 -0.03 -0.27 0.05 0.08 0.19 -0.09 -0.14 -0.09

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -13.1533 -10.6391 -9.942 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 S.E(Log q

10

) 1.9688 1.1949 0.437 0.2706 0.2915 0.4491 0.6699 0.6499 0.528 0.1404

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

1 9.4 -1.621 59.41 0.01 5 15.45 -13.152 0.89 0.19 10.36 0.3 9 1.13 -10.643 1.19 -0.696 10.31 0.67 9 0.54 -9.944 1.2 -1.237 9.82 0.85 9 0.31 -9.495 1.06 -0.366 9.63 0.84 9 0.33 -9.516 1.48 -1.294 10.78 0.53 9 0.62 -9.587 2.54 -1.559 14.13 0.13 9 1.53 -9.628 1.17 -0.344 10.22 0.39 9 0.78 -9.649 0.94 0.185 9.36 0.59 9 0.52 -9.59

10 0.83 3.175 8.8 0.98 9 0.08 -9.52

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet : Muros

Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 No data for this fleet at this age2 99.99 1.09 2.6 -1.17 -1.05 -0.59 -0.63 99.99 99.993 99.99 0.69 1.55 -0.15 -0.23 0.18 -0.03 99.99 -1.814 99.99 0.54 0.83 0.34 -0.05 0.31 0.76 -1.92 -0.675 99.99 1.17 0.98 1.17 0.52 1.11 1.23 -0.05 0.746 99.99 1.29 1.32 1.57 1.16 1.69 1.5 0.56 17 99.99 1.38 1.3 1.8 1.12 1.97 1.73 0.95 0.868 99.99 1.08 1.04 1.65 1.36 1.94 1.9 1.27 0.579 99.99 1.42 1.11 1.81 1.71 2.43 1.62 1.39 0.76

10 99.99 0.47 2.05 2.26 2.21 2.38 0.48 1.32 1.26

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -14.9626 -12.7652 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 S.E(Log q

10

) 1.4873 1.0259 0.9291 1.0156 1.3956 1.5457 1.5304 1.7199 1.8448

Regression statistics :

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

2 0.34 2.83 10.48 0.83 6 0.32 -14.963 0.48 2.407 10.25 0.82 7 0.36 -12.774 0.55 1.772 10.1 0.73 8 0.44 -12.075 0.75 1.371 10.26 0.84 8 0.32 -11.216 0.77 1.322 9.93 0.85 8 0.27 -10.817 0.9 0.357 10.28 0.7 8 0.4 -10.688 1.07 -0.209 11.03 0.6 8 0.55 -10.719 0.75 1.036 9.33 0.76 8 0.38 -10.53

10 0.52 2.048 7.94 0.76 8 0.34 -10.51

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :

Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2001

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 554 2.167 0 0 1 0.146 0. Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0

F shrinkage mean 121 0.9 0.854 0.016

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

151 0.83 1.41 2 1.696 0.013

1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 2000

Fleet

0040

E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 3293 1.092 0.737 0.68 2 0.379 0.031 Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0

F shrinkage mean 547 0.9 0.621 0.173

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1081 0.7 1.05 3 1.511 0.091

Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Fleet

0

E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 1324 0.431 0.34 0.79 3 0.693 0.121 Muros 152 1.1 0 0 1 0.111

F shrinkage mean 745 0.9 0.196 0.206

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

930 0.37 0.39 5 1.073 0.168

0.75

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 930 0.249 0.237 0.95 3 0.844 0.182 Muros 425 0.856 0.013 0.02 2 0.071 0.363

F shrinkage mean 422 0.9 0.085 0.365

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

822 0.23 0.19 6 0.82 0.204

Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1997

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 451 0.196 0.132 0.68 4 0.848 0.243 Muros 273 0.581 0.646 1.11 4 0.091 0.374

F shrinkage mean 246 0.9 0.061 0.408

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

415 0.18 0.16 9 0.86 0.262

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1996

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 291 0.184 0.153 0.83 5 0.845 0.322 Muros 404 0.551 0.287 0.52 5 0.09 0.242

F shrinkage mean 207 0.9 0.065 0.428

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

293 0.17 0.11 11 0.648 0.32

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1995

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 227 0.183 0.096 0.53 7 0.828 0.364 Muros 394 0.546 0.282 0.52 6 0.094 0.225

F shrinkage mean 174 0.9 0.079 0.453

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

234 0.17 0.09 14 0.543 0.354

1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1994

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 202 0.191 0.149 0.78 7 0.811 0.313 Muros 463 0.571 0.26 0.46 7 0.1 0.149

F shrinkage mean 128 0.9 0.09 0.457

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

211 0.18 0.13 15 0.705 0.302

Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1993

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 95 0.235 0.169 0.72 9 0.784 0.279 Muros 299 0.683 0.179 0.26 8 0.095 0.097

F shrinkage mean 48 0.9 0.121 0.487

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

97 0.22 0.15 18 0.677 0.272

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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4

Year class = 1992

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 42 0.213 0.089 0.42 9 0.864 0.384 Muros 195 0.763 0.135 0.18 8 0.05 0.097

F shrinkage mean 54 0.9 0.086 0.311

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

47 0.2 0.1 18 0.499 0.354

1

Marin

CPUE adjusted to start of year

AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1994 0.001722 0.106627 0.230044 0.332831 0.256012 0.176756 0.099659 0.066007 0.027109 0.0178021995 0 0.282992 0.613424 0.626925 0.324856 0.098354 0.053197 0.026672 0.017497 0.0139311996 0.002285 0.384281 0.241772 0.189021 0.134276 0.073941 0.039515 0.025964 0.014971 0.0073411997 0 0.042334 0.186191 0.32259 0.174857 0.113685 0.062436 0.04644 0.033125 0.0234211998 0 0.011883 0.097322 0.210897 0.237783 0.139351 0.098617 0.076794 0.046795 0.0266141999 0 0.011472 0.055155 0.14447 0.170309 0.134297 0.094858 0.083504 0.071806 0.0273422000 0.00427 0.104924 0.084101 0.122027 0.074314 0.050024 0.047479 0.020377 0.012863 0.0066822001 0.04093 0.553142 0.194892 0.104346 0.04807 0.033971 0.0152 0.007117 0.005903 0.0076112002 0.001329 0.069604 0.082537 0.086413 0.049763 0.04889 0.0481 0.02558 0.01006 0.005612

10

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

20/03/2003 14:59

Extended Survivors Analysis

NEP MALE(000) PORTUGINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 19 years. 1984 to 2002. Ages 2 to 8.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Trawl fleet�Effo 1988 2002 2 7 0 1 Summer survey 1997 2002 2 7 0.41 0.47

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 3 years or the 2 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 2.000

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .500

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00032

Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 Iteration 29 0.0688 0.6299 0.8435 0.957 1.0054 0.8785 Iteration 30 0.0688 0.6299 0.8435 0.9569 1.0053 0.8784

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0.331 0.207 0.017 0.067 0.084 0.086 0.077 0.099 0.049 0.0693 1.044 0.545 0.553 0.44 0.388 0.316 0.315 0.298 0.381 0.634 0.855 0.717 1.128 0.47 0.246 0.272 0.319 0.24 0.565 0.8435 0.979 1.154 0.496 0.403 0.236 0.311 0.425 0.311 0.61 0.9576 0.507 1.22 0.357 0.227 0.113 0.351 0.526 0.422 0.584 1.0057 0.528 0.515 0.37 0.354 0.266 0.45 0.33 0.678 0.879 0.878

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7

1993 8.05E+03 6.48E+03 2.26E+03 9.87E+02 3.92E+02 1.75E+021994 4.84E+03 4.28E+03 1.69E+03 7.11E+02 2.75E+02 1.75E+021995 3.93E+03 2.92E+03 1.84E+03 6.11E+02 1.66E+02 6.01E+011996 6.35E+03 2.86E+03 1.24E+03 4.41E+02 2.76E+02 8.60E+011997 7.67E+03 4.40E+03 1.37E+03 5.75E+02 2.19E+02 1.63E+021998 7.21E+03 5.22E+03 2.21E+03 7.92E+02 3.37E+02 1.45E+021999 6.16E+03 4.90E+03 2.82E+03 1.25E+03 4.30E+02 1.76E+022000 6.73E+03 4.22E+03 2.65E+03 1.52E+03 6.04E+02 1.88E+022001 6.15E+03 4.52E+03 2.32E+03 1.54E+03 8.25E+02 2.93E+022002 6.33E+03 4.34E+03 2.29E+03 9.77E+02 6.22E+02 3.41E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 4.38E+03 1.71E+03 7.28E+02 2.78E+02 1.69E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

7.51E+03 5.06E+03 2.43E+03 1.06E+03 4.36E+02 1.88E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.4068 0.3938 0.4423 0.5242 0.5317 0.53071

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : Trawl fleet�Effort d

Age 1988 1989 1990 1991 19922 -0.31 -0.21 -0.13 0.11 0.113 -0.02 -0.42 -0.12 0.08 0.264 -0.23 0.11 0.16 0.16 0.285 -0.25 0.58 -0.13 0.46 0.496 -0.28 0.83 -0.57 0.53 0.337 -0.05 0.33 -0.18 0.29 -0.01

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0.36 0.56 -0.38 0.02 0.11 -0.06 0.13 0.05 -0.3 -0.243 0.62 0.23 0.18 0.21 0.35 -0.37 -0.04 -0.41 -0.42 -0.094 0.32 0.39 0.77 0.17 -0.21 -0.62 -0.14 -0.73 -0.13 0.095 0.36 0.77 -0.12 -0.07 -0.34 -0.58 0.06 -0.56 -0.15 0.126 -0.12 0.99 -0.29 -0.48 -0.91 -0.29 0.44 -0.09 -0.03 0.337 -0.08 0.14 -0.25 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 -0.02 0.37 0.38 0.2

Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -9.1885 -9.0828 -8.9958 -9.1583 -9.1583 S.E(Log q) 0.3233 0.4145 0.414 0.5255 0.2186

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

2 0.42 2.603 9.65 0.67 15 0.28 -10.7 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 1.1 -0.321 9.25 0.54 15 0.37 -9.194 1.09 -0.269 9.2 0.49 15 0.47 -9.085 0.88 0.563 8.74 0.68 15 0.38 -96 0.74 1.19 8.35 0.68 15 0.38 -9.167 0.79 2.94 8.27 0.95 15 0.12 -9.091

Fleet : Summer surveys - num

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.08 0.16 99.99 -0.08 0 03 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.01 0.59 99.99 -0.19 -0.81 0.424 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.46 0.04 99.99 -0.45 -0.56 0.545 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.81 0.07 99.99 -1.02 -0.43 0.66 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.75 0.32 99.99 -0.83 -0.6 0.47 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.42 0.39 99.99 -0.75 -0.12 0.64

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -6.6109 -5.7125 -5.4493 -5.261 -5.261 S.E(Log q) 0.5563 0.5045 0.751 0.6814 0.5764

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

2 0.22 1.217 8.7 0.45 5 0.12 -8.24 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

3 0.25 0.838 7.96 0.3 5 0.15 -6.614 -4.92 -1.285 17.25 0.02 5 2.3 -5.715 -1.95 -2.823 9.8 0.24 5 0.88 -5.456 25.35 -1.968 -16.63 0 5 13.12 -5.267 0.85 0.196 5.18 0.38 5 0.55 -5.151

Fleet disaggregated estimates of survivors :

Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 2 Survivors 3434 Raw Weights 3.734

Summer surveys - num Age 2 Survivors 4370 Raw Weights 3.734

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 3434 0.5 0 0 1 0.264 0.087 Summer surveys - num 4370 0.5 0 0 1 0.264 0.069

P shrinkage mean 5062 0.39 0.455 0.06

F shrinkage mean 3984 2 0.018 0.075

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

4377 0.26 0.12 4 0.444 0.069

1 Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1999

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 3 2 Survivors 1557 1271 Raw Weights 2.131 2.029

Summer surveys - num Age 3 2 Survivors 2604 1720 Raw Weights 1.431 2.029

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 1410 0.354 0.101 0.29 2 0.529 0.725 Summer surveys - num 2042 0.387 0.204 0.53 2 0.44 0.551

F shrinkage mean 3778 2 0.032 0.335

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1712 0.26 0.14 5 0.535 0.63

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 4 3 2 Survivors 794 480 765 Raw Weights 1.721 1.175 1.062

Summer surveys - num Age 4 3 2 Survivors 1244 323 672 Raw Weights 1.405 0.789 1.062

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 677 0.296 0.158 0.54 3 0.53 0.886 Summer surveys - num 734 0.325 0.378 1.16 3 0.436 0.839

F shrinkage mean 2095 2 0.033 0.379

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

728 0.22 0.18 7 0.809 0.843

1 Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 314 243 185 317 Raw Weights 1.536 0.873 0.646 0.593

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Summer surveys - num Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 506 159 229 0 Raw Weights 0.566 0.713 0.434 0

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 269 0.271 0.118 0.44 4 0.65 0.976 Summer surveys - num 256 0.389 0.354 0.91 3 0.305 1.009

F shrinkage mean 776 2 0.045 0.454

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

278 0.23 0.15 8 0.648 0.957

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 235 146 81 162 159 Raw Weights 1.221 0.795 0.624 0.452 0.409

Summer surveys - num Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 250 110 107 0 198 Raw Weights 0.655 0.293 0.509 0 0.409

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 159 0.255 0.184 0.72 5 0.623 1.043 Summer surveys - num 166 0.347 0.22 0.63 4 0.332 1.015

F shrinkage mean 431 2 0.045 0.517

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

169 0.22 0.14 10 0.649 1.005

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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6

Year class = 1995

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 128 102 60 92 73 117 Raw Weights 1.662 0.773 0.678 0.489 0.352 0.316

Summer surveys - num Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 199 58 38 0 190 96 Raw Weights 1.039 0.415 0.25 0 0.236 0.316

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 100 0.246 0.124 0.51 6 0.63 0.91 Summer surveys - num 119 0.348 0.313 0.9 5 0.333 0.808

F shrinkage mean 86 2 0.037 0.999

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

105 0.21 0.13 12 0.63 0.878

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1

21/03/2003 11:07

Extended Survivors Analysis

NEP FEMALE(000) PORTINDEX FILE

CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT

Catch data for 19 years. 1984 to 2002. Ages 2 to 13.

Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Trawl fleet�E 1988 2002 2 12 0 1 Summer surv 1997 2002 2 12 0.41 0.47

Time series weights :

Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years

Catchability analysis :

Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4

Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 4

Catchability independent of age for ages >= 8

Terminal population estimation :

Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 3 years or the 5 oldest ages.

S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 2.000

Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .500

Prior weighting not applied

Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations

Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00462

Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0617 0.1048 0.2725 0.3948 0.4688 0.3898 0.3499 0.3106 0.3678 0.3128 Iteration 30 0.0616 0.1048 0.2722 0.3944 0.4682 0.3893 0.3494 0.3101 0.3672 0.3123

Age 12 Iteration 29 0.3387 Iteration 30 0.338

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1

Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 0.268 0.154 0.016 0.029 0.1 0.1 0.093 0.1 0.044 0.0623 0.248 0.197 0.104 0.056 0.162 0.106 0.17 0.087 0.094 0.1054 0.21 0.159 0.251 0.084 0.168 0.127 0.171 0.145 0.143 0.2725 0.165 0.155 0.5 0.159 0.141 0.136 0.235 0.166 0.171 0.3946 0.135 0.162 0.65 0.253 0.137 0.16 0.263 0.208 0.153 0.4687 0.155 0.103 0.377 0.176 0.058 0.086 0.25 0.146 0.169 0.3898 0.227 0.158 0.644 0.221 0.057 0.162 0.2 0.16 0.256 0.3499 0.273 0.213 0.542 0.325 0.063 0.228 0.203 0.183 0.262 0.31

10 0.232 0.118 0.318 0.212 0.036 0.18 0.15 0.166 0.215 0.36711 0.361 0.197 0.402 0.43 0.07 0.274 0.127 0.188 0.214 0.31212 0.28 0.161 0.239 0.172 0.05 0.206 0.162 0.25 0.256 0.338

1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)

AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1993 9.42E+03 8.52E+03 5.79E+03 3.14E+03 2.42E+03 1.68E+03 9.29E+02 6.50E+02 3.13E+02 1.77E+021994 7.04E+03 5.90E+03 5.45E+03 3.84E+03 2.18E+03 1.73E+03 1.18E+03 6.06E+02 4.05E+02 2.03E+021995 6.23E+03 4.94E+03 3.97E+03 3.80E+03 2.69E+03 1.52E+03 1.28E+03 8.25E+02 4.01E+02 2.94E+021996 7.73E+03 5.02E+03 3.65E+03 2.53E+03 1.89E+03 1.15E+03 8.51E+02 5.50E+02 3.93E+02 2.39E+021997 7.69E+03 6.14E+03 3.89E+03 2.75E+03 1.77E+03 1.20E+03 7.91E+02 5.59E+02 3.25E+02 2.60E+021998 6.63E+03 5.70E+03 4.28E+03 2.69E+03 1.96E+03 1.26E+03 9.28E+02 6.11E+02 4.30E+02 2.57E+021999 6.95E+03 4.92E+03 4.20E+03 3.09E+03 1.92E+03 1.36E+03 9.47E+02 6.46E+02 3.99E+02 2.94E+022000 7.24E+03 5.19E+03 3.39E+03 2.90E+03 2.00E+03 1.21E+03 8.69E+02 6.35E+02 4.31E+02 2.81E+022001 7.23E+03 5.37E+03 3.89E+03 2.40E+03 2.01E+03 1.33E+03 8.56E+02 6.06E+02 4.33E+02 2.99E+022002 7.61E+03 5.67E+03 4.00E+03 2.76E+03 1.66E+03 1.41E+03 9.19E+02 5.43E+02 3.82E+02 2.86E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

0.00E+00 5.86E+03 4.18E+03 2.49E+03 1.53E+03 8.51E+02 7.84E+02 5.31E+02 3.26E+02 2.17E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

8.33E+03 6.12E+03 4.41E+03 3.09E+03 2.09E+03 1.39E+03 9.40E+02 6.09E+02 3.89E+02 2.62E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.2694 0.2152 0.1882 0.1709 0.1534 0.142 0.1549 0.1689 0.1723 0.2053

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 12

1993 2.00E+021994 1.01E+021995 1.37E+021996 1.61E+021997 1.27E+021998 1.99E+021999 1.60E+022000 2.12E+022001 1.91E+022002 1.98E+02

Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003

1.72E+02

Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:

1.64E+02

Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :

0.27831

Log catchability residuals.

Fleet : Trawl fleet�Effort d

Age 1988 1989 1990 1991 19922 -0.01 0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.083 0.07 -0.16 -0.03 0.1 -0.094 0.56 0.13 0.24 0.02 0.035 0.52 0.43 0.21 -0.46 -0.326 0.28 0.45 -0.31 -0.74 -0.127 0.48 0.69 0.41 -0.36 0.238 0.21 0.1 0.47 0 -0.29 -0.49 0.81 0.33 0.04 -0.1

10 -0.65 0.42 0.24 -0.16 -0.2811 -0.54 0.47 -0.16 -0.69 -0.2112 -0.03 0.38 0.03 0.03 0.17

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 0.2 0.29 -0.4 -0.26 0.24 0.17 0.22 0.12 -0.24 -0.213 0.04 0.23 -0.02 -0.2 0.34 -0.07 0.39 -0.11 -0.21 -0.274 -0.01 -0.04 0.35 -0.49 0.47 -0.33 0.31 -0.17 -0.44 0.035 -0.41 -0.23 0.87 -0.01 0.13 -0.41 0.46 -0.2 -0.42 0.246 -0.69 -0.26 1.05 0.37 0.02 -0.33 0.5 -0.05 -0.61 0.337 -0.34 -0.5 0.73 0.23 -0.61 -0.72 0.67 -0.18 -0.29 0.378 -0.14 -0.26 1.08 0.27 -0.82 -0.28 0.26 -0.28 -0.06 0.079 0.04 0.04 0.91 0.66 -0.72 0.06 0.27 -0.15 -0.04 -0.05

10 -0.12 -0.55 0.38 0.23 -1.28 -0.18 -0.03 -0.24 -0.24 0.1211 0.32 -0.03 0.61 0.93 -0.61 0.24 -0.2 -0.12 -0.24 -0.0412 0.07 -0.23 0.09 0.02 -0.95 -0.05 0.04 0.16 -0.06 0.04

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mean Log q -10.1374 -9.9795 -9.9011 -10.1198 -9.9332 -9.9332 -9.9332 -9.9332 -9.9332 S.E(Log q) 0.3178 0.4167 0.514 0.5126 0.451 0.4433 0.477 0.4557 0.3105

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

2 0.33 2.315 9.6 0.55 15 0.24 -10.793 0.48 1.527 9.54 0.48 15 0.23 -10.43

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

4 0.68 0.889 9.57 0.44 15 0.22 -10.145 0.56 1.017 9.12 0.35 15 0.23 -9.986 0.85 0.149 9.57 0.1 15 0.46 -9.97 0.65 0.455 9.11 0.15 15 0.35 -10.128 0.41 1.716 8.12 0.47 15 0.17 -9.939 0.54 1.118 8.26 0.38 15 0.23 -9.83

10 0.54 1.066 8.21 0.36 15 0.24 -10.111 1.21 -0.228 10.85 0.11 15 0.58 -9.9312 0.64 1.591 8.22 0.67 15 0.18 -9.981

Fleet : Summer surveys - num

Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.07 -0.05 99.99 0.07 0.06 -0.023 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.17 0.32 99.99 -0.04 -0.14 0.034 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.17 0.92 99.99 -0.56 -0.7 0.195 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.15 0.66 99.99 -0.3 -0.69 0.496 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.19 0.1 99.99 -0.1 -1.03 0.847 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.41 0.05 99.99 -0.06 -0.84 0.458 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.48 -0.02 99.99 -0.36 -0.51 0.429 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 1.08 0.2 99.99 -0.03 -0.24 0.87

10 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 1.65 0.15 99.99 0.06 -0.01 1.0811 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 1.47 0.54 99.99 0.31 -0.25 1.1812 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 2.04 0.16 99.99 0.4 0.04 1.52

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time

Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Mean Log q -7.6378 -6.927 -6.5289 -6.1932 -5.7825 -5.7825 -5.7825 -5.7825 -5.7825 S.E(Log q) 0.6597 0.5644 0.6813 0.5224 0.4457 0.7073 0.9814 0.9978 1.2833

Regression statistics :

Ages with q dependent on year class strength

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q

2 -0.12 -1.752 8.95 0.45 5 0.07 -8.433 0.29 0.401 8.51 0.1 5 0.23 -8.22

Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.

Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q

4 0.14 2.024 8.17 0.66 5 0.07 -7.645 0.22 0.827 7.68 0.28 5 0.13 -6.936 -0.18 -2.42 7.72 0.59 5 0.08 -6.537 2.1 -0.117 5.13 0 5 1.27 -6.198 4.88 -0.196 1.95 0 5 2.5 -5.789 -0.15 -3.164 6.53 0.72 5 0.05 -5.41

10 -0.21 -8.041 6.15 0.94 5 0.04 -5.211 -0.2 -1.159 5.72 0.24 5 0.13 -5.1412 -0.46 -1.802 5.32 0.34 5 0.32 -4.961

Fleet disaggregated estimates of survivors :

Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 2000

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 2 Survivors 4727 Raw Weights 3.761

12

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Summer surveys - num Age 2 Survivors 5769 Raw Weights 3.761

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 4727 0.5 0 0 1 0.128 0.076 Summer surveys - num 5769 0.5 0 0 1 0.128 0.063

P shrinkage mean 6124 0.22 0.735 0.059

F shrinkage mean 4537 2 0.009 0.079

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

5864 0.18 0.08 4 0.461 0.062

1 Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength

Year class = 1999

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 3 2 Survivors 3176 3301 Raw Weights 3.602 3.446

Summer surveys - num Age 3 2 Survivors 4287 4442 Raw Weights 3.602 3.446

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 3236 0.354 0.019 0.05 2 0.166 0.133 Summer surveys - num 4362 0.354 0.018 0.05 2 0.166 0.101

P shrinkage mean 4415 0.19 0.663 0.099

F shrinkage mean 3698 2 0.006 0.118

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

4181 0.15 0.07 6 0.468 0.105

1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1998

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 4 3 2 Survivors 2564 2015 2803 Raw Weights 3.047 2.771 2.502

Summer surveys - num Age 4 3 2 Survivors 3027 2160 2678 Raw Weights 1.455 2.771 2.502

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 2431 0.29 0.097 0.34 3 0.544 0.278 Summer surveys - num 2517 0.319 0.096 0.3 3 0.44 0.27

F shrinkage mean 4697 2 0.016 0.154

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

2495 0.21 0.07 7 0.305 0.272

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1997

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1937 981 1363 1910 Raw Weights 2.696 2.336 2.136 1.933

Summer surveys - num Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 2485 756 1469 0 Raw Weights 1.759 1.116 2.136 0

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 1493 0.252 0.163 0.65 4 0.634 0.401 Summer surveys - num 1524 0.345 0.311 0.9 3 0.349 0.395

F shrinkage mean 3494 2 0.017 0.191

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

1526 0.2 0.14 8 0.673 0.394

1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1996

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1184 560 715 1257 1009 Raw Weights 2.183 2.109 1.82 1.524 1.361

Summer surveys - num Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1978 424 484 0 805 Raw Weights 1.121 1.376 0.869 0 1.361

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 884 0.232 0.16 0.69 5 0.644 0.454 Summer surveys - num 753 0.321 0.344 1.07 4 0.338 0.515

F shrinkage mean 2187 2 0.018 0.209

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

851 0.19 0.15 10 0.807 0.468

1 Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1995

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1130 425 642 1063 728 997 Raw Weights 2.375 2.027 1.965 1.644 1.459 1.29

Summer surveys - num Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1231 281 583 0 1079 733 Raw Weights 2.064 1.041 1.282 0 1.459 1.29

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 779 0.216 0.161 0.74 6 0.593 0.391 Summer surveys - num 769 0.267 0.25 0.94 5 0.393 0.395

F shrinkage mean 1788 2 0.014 0.189

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

784 0.17 0.13 12 0.771 0.389

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age

Year class = 1994

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 570 396 504 843 383 745 411 Raw Weights 2.82 2.087 1.682 1.515 1.316 1.094 1.026

Summer surveys - num Age 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 811 230 479 0 1337 449 0 Raw Weights 2.82 1.813 0.864 0 0.629 1.094 0

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 526 0.206 0.111 0.54 7 0.607 0.352 Summer surveys - num 530 0.277 0.286 1.03 5 0.38 0.35

F shrinkage mean 968 2 0.013 0.207

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

531 0.17 0.12 13 0.726 0.349

1 Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8

Year class = 1993

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 311 306 272 536 217 519 267 218 Raw Weights 2.934 2.269 1.713 1.301 1.284 1.061 0.969 0.908

Summer surveys - num Age 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 780 196 307 0 629 388 0 0 Raw Weights 1.219 2.269 1.489 0 0.837 0.507 0 0

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 312 0.197 0.107 0.55 8 0.654 0.322 Summer surveys - num 351 0.289 0.271 0.94 5 0.333 0.291

F shrinkage mean 489 2 0.013 0.217

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

326 0.16 0.11 14 0.673 0.31

1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8

Year class = 1992

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 245 208 164 422 156 247 132 213 290 Raw Weights 2.771 2.132 1.812 1.228 1.026 0.999 0.888 0.762 0.611

Summer surveys - num Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 638 171 152 0 240 187 0 0 0 Raw Weights 0.598 0.886 1.812 0 0.527 0.652 0 0 0

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 218 0.19 0.107 0.57 9 0.721 0.365 Summer surveys - num 205 0.319 0.234 0.73 5 0.264 0.385

F shrinkage mean 495 2 0.015 0.178

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

217 0.16 0.1 15 0.602 0.367

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8

Year class = 1991

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 11 Survivors 165 Raw Weights 2.927

Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 135 148 222 83 175 169 242 216 209 Raw Weights 2.361 1.962 1.594 1.263 1.071 1.013 0.75 0.576 0.403

Summer surveys - num Age 11 Survivors 560 Raw Weights 0.611

Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 170 166 0 181 208 0 0 0 0 Raw Weights 0.509 0.815 0 1.098 0.55 0 0 0 0

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 160 0.184 0.09 0.49 10 0.784 0.332 Summer surveys - num 218 0.367 0.217 0.59 5 0.202 0.253

F shrinkage mean 324 2 0.014 0.177

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

172 0.16 0.09 16 0.536 0.312

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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8

Year class = 1990

Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 12 11 Survivors 120 91 Raw Weights 2.853 2.302

Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 91 152 87 63 168 276 111 120 107 Raw Weights 1.944 1.575 1.32 1.067 0.796 0.527 0.42 0.3 0.208

Summer surveys - num Age 12 11 Survivors 528 90 Raw Weights 0.36 0.48

Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 122 0 114 174 0 0 0 0 0 Raw Weights 0.419 0 1.32 0.927 0 0 0 0 0

Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 109 0.185 0.1 0.54 11 0.78 0.355 Summer surveys - num 146 0.347 0.243 0.7 5 0.205 0.277

F shrinkage mean 112 2 0.015 0.348

Weighted prediction :

Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio

116 0.16 0.09 17 0.573 0.338

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