working group on nephrops stocks - data appendix (wgneph). … reports/expert group... · 2013. 2....
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Advisory Committee on Fishery Management ICES CM 2003/ACFM:18
DRAFT
Report of the
Working Group on Nephrops Stocks
Galway, Ireland 19–27 March 2003
Data Appendix
This report is not to be quoted without prior consultation with the General Secretary. The document is a report of an expert group under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of the Council.
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer
Palægade 2–4 DK–1261 Copenhagen K Denmark
Management Area E Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Run title : IIIA COM Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 1 Catch numbers at age Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 40697 80963 70346 259864 70914 408425 47498 226196 26005 126267 15389 78348 8568 6008
+gp 15337 136810 TOTAL 294754 137692 TONSLA 9432 5435 SOPCO 98 98 Table 1 Catch numbers at age Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 78264 85730 68579 4513 2640 2119 5274 28864 9295 68293 141047 112276 107742 31562 24420 21228 34934 125162 35784 342254 120680 98472 65202 40429 61568 43977 63544 60983 51119 655165 58104 51647 41435 31232 41158 37343 53876 38740 36587 460016 21318 17620 19203 18282 25929 27277 34820 24197 27111 248587 10465 6086 9931 11980 16128 17307 18455 18037 18247 159248 6671 2297 4877 5420 7949 8694 9390 12229 11489 10990
+gp 11741 5322 6871 10798 13023 13138 11420 23969 17506 160310 TOTAL 448290 379450 323840 154216 192815 171083 231713 332181 207138 220374 TONSLA 11702 9324 7891 6127 7675 6988 9051 10367 7822 8752 SOPCO 94 91 88 95 92 84 91 91 97 96
1
Run title : IIIA COM Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 2 Catch weights at age (kg) YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0.011 0.0113 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.0315 0.04 0.0436 0.048 0.0517 0.055 0.0588 0.06 0.064
+gp 0.077 0.0850 SOPCO 0.9824 0.9847
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 2 Catch weights at age (kg) YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.0133 0.02 0.019 0.019 0.02 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.02 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.031 0.029 0.031 0.031 0.032 0.031 0.029 0.029 0.0325 0.039 0.04 0.04 0.044 0.041 0.044 0.04 0.038 0.038 0.0426 0.047 0.054 0.052 0.055 0.054 0.057 0.051 0.05 0.044 0.0497 0.052 0.061 0.06 0.067 0.068 0.071 0.068 0.058 0.052 0.0578 0.058 0.069 0.068 0.074 0.08 0.084 0.083 0.067 0.06 0.064
+gp 0.082 0.087 0.086 0.084 0.085 0.1 0.106 0.091 0.088 0.0880 SOPCO 0.9421 0.9119 0.8831 0.9523 0.9158 0.8367 0.9099 0.9113 0.968 0.9643
1
Run title : IIIA COM Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 3 Stock weights at age (kg) YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0.011 0.0113 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.0315 0.04 0.0436 0.048 0.0517 0.055 0.0588 0.06 0.064
+gp 0.077 0.085
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 3 Stock weights at age (kg) YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.0133 0.02 0.019 0.019 0.02 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.02 0.02 0.0214 0.029 0.031 0.029 0.031 0.031 0.032 0.031 0.029 0.029 0.0325 0.039 0.04 0.04 0.044 0.041 0.044 0.04 0.038 0.038 0.0426 0.047 0.054 0.052 0.055 0.054 0.057 0.051 0.05 0.044 0.0497 0.052 0.061 0.06 0.067 0.068 0.071 0.068 0.058 0.052 0.0578 0.058 0.069 0.068 0.074 0.08 0.084 0.083 0.067 0.06 0.064
+gp 0.082 0.087 0.086 0.084 0.085 0.1 0.106 0.091 0.088 0.0881
Run title : IIIA COM Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 4 Natural Mortality (M) at age YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0.3 0.33 0.25 0.254 0.25 0.255 0.25 0.256 0.25 0.257 0.25 0.258 0.25 0.25
+gp 0.25 0.25
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 4 Natural Mortality (M) at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.33 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.254 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.255 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.256 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.257 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.258 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
+gp 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.251
Run title : IIIA COM Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 5 Proportion mature at age YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0.5 0.53 1 14 1 15 1 16 1 17 1 18 1 1
+gp 1 1
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 5 Proportion mature at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.53 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 18 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
+gp 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 6 Proportion of M before Spawning YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 0
+gp 0 0
0.5
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 6 Proportion of M before Spawning YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+gp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01
Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 7 Proportion of F before Spawning YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 0
+gp 0 0
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 7 Proportion of F before Spawning YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+gp 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01
Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 8 Fishing mortality (F) at age YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0.0629 0.01083 0.2034 0.05624 0.4291 0.18415 0.5942 0.24786 0.4644 0.32447 0.414 0.25958 0.4223 0.2971
+gp 0.4223 0.29710 FBAR 3- 8 0.4212 0.2282 Table 8 Fishing mortality (F) at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 FBAR **-**
AGE2 0.1128 0.1228 0.1077 0.0082 0.0051 0.0042 0.0082 0.048 0.0173 0.0119 0.02573 0.2869 0.2555 0.2435 0.0714 0.0605 0.0556 0.0957 0.2992 0.0837 0.0886 0.15714 0.4223 0.3536 0.2447 0.1425 0.205 0.1558 0.2481 0.2551 0.202 0.2296 0.22895 0.4607 0.3408 0.2603 0.1869 0.2235 0.1951 0.3081 0.249 0.2535 0.2993 0.26726 0.4159 0.2586 0.2155 0.1845 0.2473 0.2397 0.2983 0.2333 0.2931 0.2899 0.27217 0.524 0.2096 0.2402 0.214 0.2607 0.2751 0.2682 0.2629 0.2936 0.2968 0.28448 0.3916 0.2158 0.2743 0.2111 0.2272 0.2308 0.2492 0.3035 0.2823 0.3064 0.2974
+gp 0.3916 0.2158 0.2743 0.2111 0.2272 0.2308 0.2492 0.3035 0.2823 0.30640 FBAR 3- 8 0.4169 0.2723 0.2464 0.1684 0.204 0.192 0.2446 0.2672 0.2347 0.2518
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 9 Relative F at age YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 0.1494 0.04743 0.4828 0.24614 1.0187 0.80665 1.4108 1.08596 1.1024 1.42177 0.9828 1.13758 1.0025 1.3022
+gp 1.0025 1.30220 REFMEAN 0.4212 0.2282 Table 9 Relative F at age YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 MEAN **-**
AGE2 0.2705 0.4509 0.4372 0.0487 0.025 0.0219 0.0337 0.1797 0.0739 0.0471 0.10023 0.6881 0.9382 0.9883 0.424 0.2966 0.2895 0.3914 1.1199 0.3565 0.3518 0.60944 1.013 1.2986 0.993 0.8465 1.0049 0.8113 1.0141 0.955 0.8608 0.912 0.90935 1.105 1.2515 1.0563 1.1101 1.0953 1.0161 1.2595 0.9319 1.08 1.1888 1.06696 0.9976 0.9496 0.8744 1.0954 1.2122 1.2482 1.2195 0.8732 1.2488 1.1515 1.09127 1.2568 0.7696 0.9749 1.2705 1.2775 1.4328 1.0966 0.984 1.251 1.179 1.1388 0.9393 0.7925 1.1131 1.2534 1.1136 1.2022 1.0189 1.136 1.2028 1.2169 1.1852
+gp 0.9393 0.7925 1.1131 1.2534 1.1136 1.2022 1.0189 1.136 1.2028 1.21690 REFMEAN 0.4169 0.2723 0.2464 0.1684 0.204 0.192 0.2446 0.2672 0.2347 0.2518
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Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 10 Stock number at age (start of year) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 775085 8744983 433201 5391694 230317 2752975 120133 1167906 79329 516437 51444 388328 28187 26484
+gp 49887 597800 TOTAL 1767584 1982493
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 10 Stock number at age (start of year) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 GMST 91-** AMST 91-**
AGE2 852662 862084 780202 641407 603627 587782 746467 715460 628440 673194 0 736947 7439283 640876 564305 564859 518962 471281 444905 433616 548457 505182 457559 492875 511867 5159634 396973 374641 340398 344831 376314 345484 327759 306871 316684 361857 326172 328140 3318895 178359 202663 204869 207562 232876 238740 230253 199182 185174 201521 224021 187943 1931436 70995 87629 112256 122986 134087 145042 152976 131776 120935 111926 116367 103270 1088727 29077 36478 52696 70478 79648 81545 88887 88409 81274 70259 65243 57595 617498 23329 13410 23038 32276 44316 47797 48234 52939 52936 47193 40673 31425 34001
+gp 40622 30851 32189 63854 72075 71696 58207 102842 79980 68226 661750 TOTAL 2232892 2172061 2110508 2002355 2014224 1962992 2086400 2145936 1970604 1991735 1331526
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Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 11 Spawning stock number at age (spawning time) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 387543 4372493 433201 5391694 230317 2752975 120133 1167906 79329 516437 51444 388328 28187 26484
+gp 49887 59780
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 11 Spawning stock number at age (spawning time) Numbers*10**-3 YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 426331 431042 390101 320703 301813 293891 373234 357730 314220 3365973 640876 564305 564859 518962 471281 444905 433616 548457 505182 4575594 396973 374641 340398 344831 376314 345484 327759 306871 316684 3618575 178359 202663 204869 207562 232876 238740 230253 199182 185174 2015216 70995 87629 112256 122986 134087 145042 152976 131776 120935 1119267 29077 36478 52696 70478 79648 81545 88887 88409 81274 702598 23329 13410 23038 32276 44316 47797 48234 52939 52936 47193
+gp 40622 30851 32189 63854 72075 71696 58207 102842 79980 682261
Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 12 Stock biomass at age (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 8526 96193 8664 113234 6679 85345 4805 50226 3808 26347 2829 22528 1691 1695
+gp 3841 50810 TOTALBIO 40844 46161
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Table 12 Stock biomass at age (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 10232 10345 9362 8338 7244 7641 9704 9301 8170 87523 12818 10722 10732 10379 9897 9343 9106 10969 10104 96094 11512 11614 9872 10690 11666 11055 10161 8899 9184 115795 6956 8107 8195 9133 9548 10505 9210 7569 7037 84646 3337 4732 5837 6764 7241 8267 7802 6589 5321 54847 1512 2225 3162 4722 5416 5790 6044 5128 4226 40058 1353 925 1567 2388 3545 4015 4003 3547 3176 3020
+gp 3331 2684 2768 5364 6126 7170 6170 9359 7038 60040 TOTALBIO 51051 51354 51495 57778 60682 63786 62200 61360 54256 56917
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Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 13 Spawning stock biomass at age (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 4263 48103 8664 113234 6679 85345 4805 50226 3808 26347 2829 22528 1691 1695
+gp 3841 50810 TOTSPBIO 36581 41351 Table 13 Spawning stock biomass at age (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 5116 5173 4681 4169 3622 3821 4852 4650 4085 43763 12818 10722 10732 10379 9897 9343 9106 10969 10104 96094 11512 11614 9872 10690 11666 11055 10161 8899 9184 115795 6956 8107 8195 9133 9548 10505 9210 7569 7037 84646 3337 4732 5837 6764 7241 8267 7802 6589 5321 54847 1512 2225 3162 4722 5416 5790 6044 5128 4226 40058 1353 925 1567 2388 3545 4015 4003 3547 3176 3020
+gp 3331 2684 2768 5364 6126 7170 6170 9359 7038 60040 TOTSPBIO 45935 46181 46814 53609 57061 59965 57348 56710 50171 52541
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 14 Stock biomass at age with SOP (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 8376 94733 8512 111504 6562 84045 4721 49456 3741 25947 2780 22188 1662 1669
+gp 3774 50040 TOTALBIO 40127 45457 Table 14 Stock biomass at age with SOP (start of year) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 9639 9434 8268 7941 6634 6394 8829 8476 7908 84393 12075 9777 9478 9884 9064 7818 8285 9997 9780 92664 10845 10591 8718 10180 10684 9251 9245 8110 8890 111665 6553 7392 7237 8697 8744 8790 8380 6898 6811 81626 3143 4315 5155 6442 6631 6918 7098 6005 5151 52897 1424 2029 2792 4497 4960 4845 5499 4673 4091 38628 1275 844 1383 2275 3247 3359 3643 3232 3074 2913
+gp 3138 2448 2445 5108 5611 5999 5614 8529 6813 57900 TOTALBIO 48093 46830 45477 55024 55575 53373 56593 55920 52517 54886
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE
At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 15 Spawning stock biomass with SOP (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1991 1992
AGE2 4188 47363 8512 111504 6562 84045 4721 49456 3741 25947 2780 22188 1662 1669
+gp 3774 50040 TOTSPBIO 35939 40720 Table 15 Spawning stock biomass with SOP (spawning time) Tonnes YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AGE2 4820 4717 4134 3970 3317 3197 4415 4238 3954 42203 12075 9777 9478 9884 9064 7818 8285 9997 9780 92664 10845 10591 8718 10180 10684 9251 9245 8110 8890 111665 6553 7392 7237 8697 8744 8790 8380 6898 6811 81626 3143 4315 5155 6442 6631 6918 7098 6005 5151 52897 1424 2029 2792 4497 4960 4845 5499 4673 4091 38628 1275 844 1383 2275 3247 3359 3643 3232 3074 2913
+gp 3138 2448 2445 5108 5611 5999 5614 8529 6813 57900 TOTSPBIO 43273 42113 41343 51054 52258 50176 52178 51682 48563 50666
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Functional Units 3–4 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 16 Summary (without SOP correction)
REC TOTALB TOTSPB LANDING YIELD/SS FBAR 3- 8 Age 2
1991 775085 40844 36581 9432 0.2578 0.42121992 874498 46161 41351 5435 0.1314 0.22821993 852662 51051 45935 11702 0.2548 0.41691994 862084 51354 46181 9324 0.2019 0.27231995 780202 51495 46814 7891 0.1686 0.24641996 641407 57778 53609 6127 0.1143 0.16841997 603627 60682 57061 7675 0.1345 0.2041998 587782 63786 59965 6988 0.1165 0.1921999 746467 62200 57348 9051 0.1578 0.24462000 715460 61360 56710 10367 0.1828 0.26722001 628440 54256 50171 7822 0.1559 0.23472002 673194 56917 52541 8752 0.1666 0.2518
Arith. Mean 728409 54824 50356 8381 0.1702 0.26230 Units (Thousan (Tonnes (Tonnes (Tonnes)
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Run title : IIIA COMB Input INDEX FILE At 22/03/2003 16:53
Table 17 Summary (with SOP correction)
REC TOTALB TOTSPB LANDING YIELD/SS SOPCOF FBAR 3- 8 Age 2
1991 775085 40127 35939 9432 0.2624 0.9824 0.42121992 874498 45457 40720 5435 0.1335 0.9847 0.22821993 852662 48093 43273 11702 0.2704 0.9421 0.41691994 862084 46830 42113 9324 0.2214 0.9119 0.27231995 780202 45477 41343 7891 0.1909 0.8831 0.24641996 641407 55024 51054 6127 0.12 0.9523 0.16841997 603627 55575 52258 7675 0.1469 0.9158 0.2041998 587782 53373 50176 6988 0.1393 0.8367 0.1921999 746467 56593 52178 9051 0.1735 0.9099 0.24462000 715460 55920 51682 10367 0.2006 0.9113 0.26722001 628440 52517 48563 7822 0.1611 0.968 0.23472002 673194 54886 50666 8752 0.1727 0.9643 0.2518
Arith. Mean 728409 50823 46664 8381 .1827 .26230 Units (Thousan (Tonnes (Tonnes (Tonnes)
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Management Area F Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 14:24
Extended Survivors Analysis
males INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 25 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0 0.005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.021 0.018 0.204 0.027 0.049 0.034 0.019 0.016 0.018 0.0553 0.31 0.144 0.292 0.349 0.313 0.149 0.159 0.225 0.256 0.144 0.717 0.43 0.455 0.672 0.533 0.327 0.311 0.508 0.658 0.3185 1.026 0.721 0.585 0.672 0.78 0.375 0.373 0.622 0.666 0.4296 0.881 0.766 0.619 0.619 0.844 0.378 0.328 0.55 0.59 0.5017 0.799 0.738 0.632 0.63 0.87 0.387 0.343 0.474 0.52 0.5998 0.698 0.799 0.476 0.577 0.627 0.467 0.352 0.627 0.443 0.6759 0.703 0.728 0.421 0.526 0.64 0.524 0.506 0.904 0.801 0.815
002
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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 1.34E+05 7.32E+04 4.07E+04 2.87E+04 1.75E+04 6.54E+03 2.39E+03 8.81E+02 2.64E+021994 1.47E+05 9.90E+04 5.31E+04 2.21E+04 1.04E+04 4.65E+03 2.01E+03 7.95E+02 3.25E+021995 1.23E+05 1.09E+05 7.21E+04 3.41E+04 1.07E+04 3.74E+03 1.60E+03 7.10E+02 2.65E+021996 1.25E+05 9.08E+04 6.58E+04 3.99E+04 1.60E+04 4.40E+03 1.49E+03 6.30E+02 3.27E+021997 1.13E+05 9.24E+04 6.54E+04 3.44E+04 1.51E+04 6.05E+03 1.75E+03 5.89E+02 2.62E+021998 1.08E+05 8.35E+04 6.52E+04 3.54E+04 1.50E+04 5.13E+03 1.93E+03 5.44E+02 2.33E+021999 9.38E+04 8.02E+04 5.98E+04 4.16E+04 1.89E+04 7.61E+03 2.60E+03 9.70E+02 2.53E+022000 9.46E+04 6.95E+04 5.83E+04 3.78E+04 2.26E+04 9.66E+03 4.06E+03 1.37E+03 5.05E+022001 1.26E+05 7.00E+04 5.07E+04 3.45E+04 1.68E+04 8.98E+03 4.13E+03 1.87E+03 5.42E+022002 1.27E+05 9.30E+04 5.10E+04 2.91E+04 1.32E+04 6.41E+03 3.69E+03 1.82E+03 8.91E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 9.38E+04 6.52E+04 3.28E+04 1.57E+04 6.38E+03 2.88E+03 1.50E+03 6.85E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.18E+05 8.80E+04 6.29E+04 3.66E+04 1.62E+04 6.25E+03 2.40E+03 8.85E+02 3.26E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.2096 0.2345 0.2406 0.2302 0.2376 0.2926 0.3907 0.5054 0.53041
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.47 -0.54 -0.49 -0.54 -0.46 -0.33 -0.28 0.08 0.43 0.152 -0.12 -0.33 -0.36 -0.33 -0.44 -0.34 -0.24 -0.26 0.14 0.43 0.34 0.63 0.44 0.59 0 -0.03 0.18 -0.22 0.26 0.514 0.29 0.46 0.23 0.03 -0.26 -0.06 0.08 -0.02 -0.03 0.275 0.28 0.46 0.15 -0.24 -0.43 -0.44 0.05 0.05 -0.06 0.396 0.56 0.52 0.03 -0.21 -0.58 -0.47 0.41 0.02 -0.25 0.237 0.63 0.91 -0.08 -0.23 -0.44 -0.84 0.6 0.13 -0.08 0.158 0.24 0.73 0.29 -0.5 0.26 -1.16 0.56 0.21 -0.27 -0.019 0 -0.02 -0.12 -0.08 0.17 -0.03 0.68 0 -0.07 0.1
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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 -0.24 -0.2 0.05 -0.09 -0.02 0.1 0.22 0.14 -0.06 02 0.04 -0.24 0.15 -0.06 -0.02 0.05 0 0.05 0.07 0.063 0.13 -0.69 0.49 0.45 0.09 -0.35 -0.24 -0.14 0.01 -0.324 0.25 -0.31 0.22 0.39 -0.09 -0.28 -0.28 -0.04 0.24 -0.215 0.39 -0.02 0.26 0.18 0.07 -0.35 -0.31 -0.05 0.03 -0.136 0.24 0.04 0.32 0.1 0.15 -0.35 -0.44 -0.17 -0.08 0.037 0.15 0.01 0.34 0.12 0.18 -0.32 -0.39 -0.32 -0.21 0.28 0.01 0.09 0.06 0.03 -0.14 -0.14 -0.36 -0.05 -0.37 0.329 0.02 -0.01 -0.07 -0.06 -0.12 -0.02 -0.01 0.31 0.22 0.51
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -5.3791 -4.6725 -4.459 -4.459 -4.459 -4.459 -4.459 S.E(Log q) 0.3577 0.2414 0.2423 0.2659 0.3041 0.3066 0.2353
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.03 -35.671 11.7 0.08 20 0.21 -12.732 0.16 -13.926 10.71 0.42 20 0.19 -7.26
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 0.35 -5.873 9.06 0.5 20 0.18 -5.384 0.48 -4.176 7.7 0.6 20 0.15 -4.675 0.49 -2.963 7.13 0.44 20 0.19 -4.466 0.58 -1.874 6.28 0.4 20 0.24 -4.497 0.68 -1.525 5.54 0.51 20 0.29 -4.498 0.73 -2.03 5.13 0.75 20 0.27 -4.529 0.73 -6.633 4.75 0.97 20 0.1 -4.371
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 93841 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.002
P shrinka 88050 0.23 0 0.002
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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
93841 0.3 0 1 0 0.002
1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 65239 0.212 0.056 0.26 2 1 0.055
P shrinkage me 62879 0.24 0 0.057
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
65239 0.21 0.06 2 0.263 0.055
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 32815 0.184 0.132 0.72 3 1 0.14
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
32815 0.18 0.13 3 0.715 0.14
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15670 0.159 0.096 0.61 4 1 0.318
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
15670 0.16 0.1 4 0.608 0.318
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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6377 0.152 0.072 0.48 5 1 0.429
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
6377 0.15 0.07 5 0.478 0.429
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2878 0.149 0.031 0.21 6 1 0.501
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2878 0.15 0.03 6 0.21 0.501
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1501 0.148 0.071 0.48 7 1 0.599
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1501 0.15 0.07 7 0.482 0.599
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 685 0.147 0.097 0.66 8 1 0.675
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Functional Unit 9 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
685 0.15 0.1 8 0.66 0.675
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 292 0.144 0.147 1.02 9 1 0.815
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
292 0.14 0.15 9 1.019 0.815
O:\ACFM\WGREPS\wgneph\reports\2003\Data Appendix 2003\WGNEPH Data 2003.doc 20
Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
21/03/2003 18:02
Extended Survivors Analysis
females INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4
Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00518
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 29 0.0023 0.0614 0.0404 0.061 0.0856 0.1059 0.1402 0.1736 0.2148 0.2306 Iteration 30 0.0023 0.0614 0.0404 0.061 0.0855 0.1058 0.14 0.1734 0.2145 0.2301
Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.2505 0.3986 0.3704 Iteration 30 0.2498 0.3971 0.369
10
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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0.001 0.005 0 0 0.001 0 0 0 0.2 0.014 0.023 0.211 0.027 0.053 0.04 0.023 0.026 0.017 0.0613 0.06 0.055 0.085 0.101 0.104 0.058 0.046 0.07 0.048 0.044 0.109 0.089 0.078 0.151 0.139 0.069 0.062 0.104 0.074 0.0615 0.183 0.157 0.104 0.176 0.158 0.098 0.079 0.135 0.109 0.0866 0.221 0.294 0.118 0.202 0.161 0.121 0.096 0.166 0.151 0.1067 0.283 0.414 0.157 0.191 0.171 0.134 0.106 0.219 0.195 0.148 0.283 0.528 0.219 0.219 0.148 0.135 0.123 0.226 0.156 0.1739 0.313 0.551 0.323 0.249 0.219 0.152 0.169 0.262 0.177 0.214
10 0.295 0.492 0.372 0.315 0.234 0.211 0.18 0.32 0.22 0.2311 0.323 0.436 0.379 0.316 0.358 0.204 0.173 0.344 0.221 0.2512 0.62 0.489 0.493 0.376 0.464 0.357 0.136 0.699 0.23 0.39713 0.627 0.579 0.361 0.332 0.373 0.268 0.246 0.497 0.353 0.369
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 1.62E+05 1.16E+05 7.57E+04 5.90E+04 4.34E+04 3.86E+04 3.03E+04 2.37E+04 1.70E+04 1.11E+041994 1.79E+05 1.20E+05 8.47E+04 5.84E+04 4.33E+04 2.96E+04 2.54E+04 1.87E+04 1.46E+04 1.02E+041995 1.42E+05 1.33E+05 8.70E+04 6.56E+04 4.37E+04 3.03E+04 1.81E+04 1.37E+04 9.03E+03 6.90E+031996 1.36E+05 1.05E+05 7.96E+04 6.55E+04 4.97E+04 3.23E+04 2.20E+04 1.26E+04 9.04E+03 5.35E+031997 1.30E+05 1.01E+05 7.55E+04 5.89E+04 4.61E+04 3.41E+04 2.16E+04 1.49E+04 8.32E+03 5.77E+031998 1.23E+05 9.65E+04 7.09E+04 5.57E+04 4.20E+04 3.22E+04 2.38E+04 1.49E+04 1.05E+04 5.47E+031999 1.29E+05 9.11E+04 6.87E+04 5.47E+04 4.26E+04 3.12E+04 2.34E+04 1.70E+04 1.07E+04 7.40E+032000 1.38E+05 9.59E+04 6.60E+04 5.37E+04 4.21E+04 3.22E+04 2.32E+04 1.72E+04 1.23E+04 7.37E+032001 1.52E+05 1.02E+05 6.92E+04 5.03E+04 3.96E+04 3.01E+04 2.24E+04 1.53E+04 1.12E+04 7.76E+032002 1.53E+05 1.13E+05 7.43E+04 5.40E+04 3.83E+04 2.91E+04 2.12E+04 1.51E+04 1.07E+04 7.71E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.13E+05 7.86E+04 5.85E+04 4.17E+04 2.88E+04 2.14E+04 1.51E+04 1.04E+04 7.07E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.48E+05 1.11E+05 7.91E+04 6.11E+04 4.63E+04 3.42E+04 2.44E+04 1.68E+04 1.14E+04 7.35E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1415 0.1613 0.1639 0.168 0.1664 0.1624 0.178 0.1962 0.2181 0.2318
002
10
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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13
1993 7.65E+03 3.94E+03 1.75E+031994 6.76E+03 4.53E+03 1.73E+031995 5.10E+03 3.58E+03 2.28E+031996 3.89E+03 2.86E+03 1.79E+031997 3.20E+03 2.32E+03 1.61E+031998 3.74E+03 1.83E+03 1.20E+031999 3.63E+03 2.49E+03 1.05E+032000 5.07E+03 2.50E+03 1.78E+032001 4.38E+03 2.94E+03 1.02E+032002 5.10E+03 2.88E+03 1.91E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
5.02E+03 3.26E+03 1.59E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
4.58E+03 2.77E+03 1.46E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.2453 0.2526 0.30611
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99
Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.37 -0.45 -0.45 -0.45 -0.38 -0.27 -0.07 -0.02 0.05 -0.072 -0.14 -0.31 -0.36 -0.35 -0.4 -0.33 -0.24 -0.05 0.04 0.023 0.03 -0.12 -0.22 -0.16 -0.34 -0.38 -0.31 -0.14 0.13 0.054 0.25 0.03 0.31 0.47 -0.34 -0.37 -0.32 0.11 0.4 0.025 0.27 0.06 0.32 0.39 -0.48 -0.38 -0.45 -0.06 0.22 -0.226 0.31 0.04 0.36 0.31 -0.44 -0.37 -0.59 -0.13 -0.02 -0.257 0.46 -0.14 0.25 0.12 -0.34 -0.25 -0.78 -0.16 -0.44 -0.238 0.6 0.06 0.18 0.01 -0.26 -0.07 -0.78 -0.28 -0.53 -0.279 0.67 0.05 0.21 -0.11 -0.35 0.03 -0.71 -0.11 -0.67 -0.28
10 0.28 -0.02 0.07 0 -0.62 -0.1 -0.75 0.09 -0.76 -0.4211 0.56 -0.18 0.25 0.13 -0.5 -0.3 -0.53 0.48 -0.64 -0.412 0.62 0.06 -0.05 0.46 -0.48 -0.11 -0.64 0.67 -0.39 -0.3113 0 -0.02 -0.02 0.02 -0.07 0.07 0.1 0.28 0.01 0.09
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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 -0.13 -0.18 0.09 0.06 0.1 0.2 0.13 0.04 -0.05 02 -0.15 -0.14 0.04 0.02 0.1 0.14 0.14 0.08 -0.01 0.053 -0.03 -0.15 0.04 0.1 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.12 0 -0.034 0.04 -0.22 0.13 0.57 0.24 -0.17 -0.22 0.05 -0.27 -0.25 0.29 0.08 0.14 0.46 0.1 -0.09 -0.25 0.04 -0.16 -0.136 0.28 0.51 0.08 0.4 -0.08 -0.07 -0.25 0.05 -0.03 -0.117 0.38 0.7 0.21 0.19 -0.17 -0.12 -0.3 0.17 0.08 0.028 0.32 0.88 0.48 0.26 -0.37 -0.18 -0.21 0.14 -0.21 0.9 0.22 0.72 0.67 0.19 -0.19 -0.26 -0.1 0.09 -0.28 0.18
10 0.05 0.5 0.7 0.32 -0.23 -0.04 -0.15 0.18 -0.17 0.1411 0.05 0.29 0.63 0.23 0.11 -0.16 -0.27 0.16 -0.26 0.1412 0.37 0.07 0.56 0.08 0.04 0.07 -0.84 0.54 -0.55 0.2713 0.38 0.24 0.25 -0.05 -0.18 -0.21 -0.25 0.2 -0.12 0.2
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mean Log q -6.3293 -6.0609 -5.867 -5.7134 -5.6507 -5.449 -5.3439 -5.2544 -4.9256 -4.9256 S.E(Log q) 0.2753 0.2429 0.2679 0.3276 0.4002 0.3869 0.3847 0.3467 0.4617 0.2114
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.02 -39.262 11.91 0.03 20 0.15 -12.152 0.1 -18.185 11.17 0.29 20 0.14 -7.223 0.23 -8.179 10.2 0.37 20 0.14 -6.61
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
4 0.31 -6.172 9.55 0.44 20 0.13 -6.335 0.31 -4.465 9.29 0.28 20 0.15 -6.066 0.16 -4.391 9.7 0.07 20 0.16 -5.877 0.14 -5.121 9.51 0.06 20 0.18 -5.718 0.15 -6.077 9.1 0.11 20 0.19 -5.659 0.23 -5.509 8.44 0.22 20 0.2 -5.45
10 0.26 -5.232 7.96 0.26 20 0.21 -5.3411 0.36 -5.333 7.28 0.48 20 0.19 -5.2512 0.27 -6.586 7.12 0.37 20 0.21 -4.9313 0.62 -5.253 5.8 0.88 20 0.11 -4.88
17
13
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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 113233 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.002
P shrinkage m 110683 0.16 0 0.002
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
113233 0.3 0 1 0 0.002
1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 78576 0.212 0.053 0.25 2 1 0.061
P shrinkage m 79083 0.16 0 0.061
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
78576 0.21 0.05 2 0.251 0.061
Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 58453 0.173 0.022 0.13 3 1 0.04
P shrinkage m 61064 0.17 0 0.039
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
58453 0.17 0.02 3 0.128 0.04
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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 41663 0.15 0.073 0.49 4 1 0.061
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
41663 0.15 0.07 4 0.486 0.061
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 28796 0.135 0.091 0.67 5 1 0.085
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
28796 0.13 0.09 5 0.673 0.086
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 21440 0.124 0.049 0.4 6 1 0.106
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
21440 0.12 0.05 6 0.399 0.106
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15112 0.118 0.04 0.34 7 1 0.14
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
15112 0.12 0.04 7 0.336 0.14
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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 10382 0.116 0.052 0.45 8 1 0.173
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
10382 0.12 0.05 8 0.445 0.173
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7069 0.116 0.064 0.55 9 1 0.214
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
7069 0.12 0.06 9 0.548 0.214
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5024 0.115 0.08 0.7 10 1 0.23
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
5024 0.12 0.08 10 0.698 0.23
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Functional Unit 9 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1991
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3261 0.116 0.059 0.51 11 1 0.249
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
3261 0.12 0.06 11 0.507 0.25
1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1990
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1589 0.121 0.066 0.54 12 1 0.396
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1589 0.12 0.07 12 0.544 0.397
Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12
Year class = 1989
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1087 0.124 0.069 0.56 13 1 0.368
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1087 0.12 0.07 13 0.562 0.369
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Management Area I Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 12:23
Extended Survivors Analysis
FU6 FARN DEEPS MALESINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 18 years. 1985 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1985 2002 1 7 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 22 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001 0 0.003 0.005 0.004 0.018 0.0022 0.064 0.137 0.273 0.174 0.111 0.117 0.162 0.175 0.28 0.1223 0.387 0.504 0.54 0.656 0.481 0.386 0.548 0.544 0.628 0.3444 0.615 0.7 0.599 0.668 0.496 0.487 0.525 0.456 0.576 0.3845 0.768 0.859 0.652 0.689 0.438 0.518 0.655 0.464 0.63 0.4066 0.766 1.003 0.501 0.623 0.43 0.437 0.75 0.45 0.763 0.4477 0.626 0.826 0.529 0.559 0.456 0.474 0.518 0.396 0.579 0.399
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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1993 3.28E+05 2.13E+05 1.28E+05 7.90E+04 3.89E+04 1.17E+04 2.20E+031994 3.56E+05 2.42E+05 1.48E+05 6.44E+04 3.16E+04 1.34E+04 4.02E+031995 2.94E+05 2.63E+05 1.57E+05 6.61E+04 2.37E+04 9.93E+03 3.64E+031996 2.82E+05 2.17E+05 1.49E+05 6.76E+04 2.69E+04 9.16E+03 4.46E+031997 3.20E+05 2.09E+05 1.35E+05 5.71E+04 2.57E+04 1.00E+04 3.64E+031998 3.28E+05 2.37E+05 1.38E+05 6.20E+04 2.58E+04 1.23E+04 4.83E+031999 3.68E+05 2.42E+05 1.56E+05 6.96E+04 2.82E+04 1.14E+04 5.87E+032000 3.69E+05 2.71E+05 1.53E+05 6.69E+04 3.05E+04 1.09E+04 3.98E+032001 3.13E+05 2.72E+05 1.69E+05 6.56E+04 3.14E+04 1.42E+04 5.13E+032002 3.15E+05 2.28E+05 1.52E+05 6.68E+04 2.73E+04 1.24E+04 4.91E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 2.33E+05 1.49E+05 7.99E+04 3.37E+04 1.35E+04 5.87E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
3.16E+05 2.31E+05 1.44E+05 6.36E+04 2.59E+04 9.87E+03 3.73E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1198 0.1327 0.116 0.1582 0.2437 0.3349 0.36051
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.38 -0.34 0.24 0.15 0.19 0.36 0.27 -0.072 0.38 -0.08 0.02 0.15 0.17 0 -0.03 -0.113 0.36 -0.52 0.07 0.29 0.17 -0.41 -0.67 -0.044 0.34 -0.15 0.04 0.12 0.23 -0.05 -0.2 0.115 0.18 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.16 -0.14 0.39 -0.046 -0.02 0.01 -0.04 0.21 -0.02 0.01 0.26 -0.087 0 0.01 -0.02 0 -0.08 -0.01 -0.03 -0.09
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.14 -0.12 -0.14 -0.1 -1.1 0.13 0.2 0.12 0.57 0.082 -0.23 -0.17 0.09 0.11 0.03 -0.02 0.03 -0.03 0.06 0.033 -0.37 -0.36 0.1 0.36 0.12 -0.01 0.23 0.2 0.19 -0.094 -0.05 -0.18 0.06 0.24 0.01 0.07 0.04 -0.12 -0.04 -0.125 0.16 0.03 0.15 0.27 -0.12 0.13 0.26 -0.1 0.05 -0.076 0.16 0.18 -0.11 0.17 -0.14 -0.03 0.4 -0.13 0.23 0.037 -0.04 -0.01 -0.06 0.06 -0.08 0.05 0.03 -0.26 -0.04 -0.08
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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -5.3121 -5.1681 -5.1681 -5.1681 -5.1681 S.E(Log q) 0.2854 0.1305 0.1768 0.187 0.0945
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.25 0.712 12.23 0.08 18 0.42 -10.932 0.3 2.742 10.59 0.61 18 0.11 -6.5
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 0.5 1.423 8.61 0.44 18 0.14 -5.314 0.94 0.228 5.5 0.62 18 0.13 -5.175 1.06 -0.304 4.76 0.69 18 0.17 -5.096 0.9 0.662 5.49 0.83 18 0.16 -5.17 0.96 0.646 5.34 0.96 18 0.08 -5.211
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 250901 0.438 0 0 1 0.084 0.002
P shrinkage mean 231044 0.13 0.916 0.002
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
232651 0.13 0.08 2 0.621 0.002
1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 180005 0.253 0.244 0.97 2 0.156 0.103
P shrinkage mean 144425 0.12 0.844 0.126
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
149489 0.11 0.16 3 1.501 0.122
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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 79937 0.193 0.06 0.31 3 1 0.344
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
79937 0.19 0.06 3 0.313 0.344
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 33703 0.173 0.08 0.46 4 1 0.384
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
33703 0.17 0.08 4 0.464 0.384
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 13478 0.162 0.048 0.29 5 1 0.406
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
13478 0.16 0.05 5 0.293 0.406
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5865 0.16 0.082 0.52 6 1 0.447
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Functional Unit 6 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
5865 0.16 0.08 6 0.516 0.447
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2442 0.16 0.053 0.33 7 1 0.399
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2442 0.16 0.05 7 0.329 0.399
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 16:38
Extended Survivors Analysis
FU6 FARN DEEPS FEMALINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 18 years. 1985 to 2002. Ages 1 to 15.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1985 2002 1 14 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 2
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 7
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00087
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2
109 0.0015 0.0466 0.0412 0.0461 0.068 0.0851 0.0907 0.0817 0.0758 0.0684
Iteration 30 0.0015 0.0465 0.0412 0.0461 0.0679 0.085 0.0906 0.0817 0.0758 0.0683
Age 11 12 13 14 Iteration 29 0.0832 0.0671 0.0728 0.0989 Iteration 30 0.0831 0.067 0.0727 0.0988
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0 0.002 0.005 0.003 0.008 0.0012 0.041 0.126 0.191 0.105 0.051 0.055 0.066 0.081 0.135 0.0473 0.026 0.135 0.115 0.107 0.061 0.048 0.066 0.078 0.07 0.0414 0.034 0.181 0.131 0.122 0.082 0.054 0.067 0.064 0.081 0.0465 0.057 0.171 0.175 0.127 0.098 0.06 0.065 0.091 0.112 0.0686 0.073 0.148 0.212 0.168 0.122 0.091 0.081 0.105 0.156 0.0857 0.087 0.163 0.186 0.155 0.162 0.085 0.095 0.146 0.191 0.0918 0.092 0.205 0.159 0.116 0.173 0.1 0.11 0.143 0.18 0.0829 0.135 0.19 0.157 0.126 0.154 0.113 0.111 0.142 0.193 0.076
10 0.13 0.12 0.144 0.127 0.117 0.135 0.083 0.162 0.218 0.06811 0.145 0.146 0.126 0.128 0.094 0.151 0.072 0.145 0.204 0.08312 0.107 0.147 0.114 0.141 0.108 0.155 0.092 0.143 0.177 0.06713 0.099 0.25 0.112 0.156 0.111 0.163 0.126 0.13 0.177 0.07314 0.113 0.228 0.113 0.151 0.137 0.148 0.13 0.139 0.196 0.099
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 3.87E+05 2.67E+05 2.28E+05 1.90E+05 1.37E+05 8.83E+04 5.33E+04 3.30E+04 1.95E+04 1.28E+041994 3.79E+05 2.87E+05 2.10E+05 1.82E+05 1.50E+05 1.06E+05 6.72E+04 4.00E+04 2.46E+04 1.39E+041995 3.22E+05 2.80E+05 2.07E+05 1.50E+05 1.24E+05 1.04E+05 7.51E+04 4.67E+04 2.67E+04 1.67E+041996 3.23E+05 2.38E+05 1.90E+05 1.51E+05 1.08E+05 8.53E+04 6.87E+04 5.10E+04 3.26E+04 1.87E+041997 4.05E+05 2.39E+05 1.75E+05 1.39E+05 1.09E+05 7.78E+04 5.90E+04 4.82E+04 3.72E+04 2.35E+041998 5.03E+05 3.00E+05 1.86E+05 1.35E+05 1.05E+05 8.12E+04 5.64E+04 4.11E+04 3.32E+04 2.61E+041999 5.61E+05 3.72E+05 2.33E+05 1.45E+05 1.05E+05 8.10E+04 6.07E+04 4.24E+04 3.04E+04 2.43E+042000 5.18E+05 4.14E+05 2.85E+05 1.78E+05 1.11E+05 8.04E+04 6.12E+04 4.52E+04 3.11E+04 2.23E+042001 6.40E+05 3.83E+05 3.13E+05 2.16E+05 1.37E+05 8.30E+04 5.93E+04 4.33E+04 3.21E+04 2.21E+042002 4.09E+05 4.70E+05 2.74E+05 2.39E+05 1.63E+05 1.00E+05 5.81E+04 4.01E+04 2.96E+04 2.17E+04
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 3.02E+05 3.68E+05 2.15E+05 1.87E+05 1.25E+05 7.54E+04 4.35E+04 3.03E+04 2.25E+04
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
4.23E+05 3.08E+05 2.18E+05 1.60E+05 1.14E+05 8.03E+04 5.61E+04 3.89E+04 2.68E+04 1.84E+04
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.225 0.2358 0.2116 0.2273 0.2168 0.201 0.2004 0.2262 0.2625 0.2948
10
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13 14
1993 7.65E+03 4.89E+03 3.87E+03 2.97E+031994 9.17E+03 5.42E+03 3.60E+03 2.87E+031995 1.01E+04 6.49E+03 3.83E+03 2.29E+031996 1.18E+04 7.31E+03 4.74E+03 2.80E+031997 1.35E+04 8.51E+03 5.20E+03 3.32E+031998 1.71E+04 1.00E+04 6.26E+03 3.81E+031999 1.87E+04 1.21E+04 7.04E+03 4.35E+032000 1.83E+04 1.42E+04 9.02E+03 5.08E+032001 1.55E+04 1.29E+04 1.01E+04 6.48E+032002 1.45E+04 1.04E+04 8.87E+03 6.93E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
1.66E+04 1.10E+04 7.94E+03 6.76E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.25E+04 8.55E+03 5.92E+03 4.02E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.3273 0.3516 0.3501 0.3321
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.14 -0.53 0.54 0.2 0.14 0.19 0.12 -0.452 -0.23 -0.76 0.63 0.51 -0.26 0.29 0.13 -1.063 0.36 -0.71 0.54 0.73 0.3 -0.16 -0.74 -0.624 0.41 -0.17 0.67 0.55 0.24 -0.16 -0.84 -0.585 0.2 0.06 0.65 0.24 0.24 0.01 -1.08 -0.536 0.12 -0.1 0.4 -0.03 0.01 0.29 -0.55 -0.537 0.02 -0.16 0.15 0.18 0.24 0.52 -0.15 -0.268 -0.17 -0.07 0.06 0.11 0.24 0.74 0.04 -0.079 -0.14 -0.12 -0.18 0.2 0.3 0.65 0.18 -0.17
10 -0.13 -0.01 -0.01 0.08 0.35 0.7 0.53 0.1111 -0.14 0.37 -0.18 0.18 0.27 0.67 0.56 -0.0512 -0.28 0.22 -0.17 0.07 0.12 0.2 0.32 -0.1713 -0.23 0.14 -0.03 0.11 -0.03 0 0.08 -0.1214 0 0.11 -0.01 -0.04 -0.05 0.04 -0.07 -0.2
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.27 -0.1 0.19 0.12 99.99 -0.07 0.07 -0.07 0.09 -0.032 -0.78 0.08 0.89 0.36 -0.3 -0.15 -0.05 0.12 0.48 -0.273 -1.06 0.32 0.55 0.55 0.05 -0.1 0.11 0.25 -0.01 -0.224 -0.92 0.5 0.56 0.56 0.23 -0.11 0.01 -0.06 0.01 -0.225 -0.61 0.24 0.65 0.4 0.2 -0.19 -0.22 0.09 0.14 -0.036 -0.6 -0.14 0.61 0.44 0.18 -0.02 -0.24 -0.01 0.23 -0.057 -0.6 -0.22 0.3 0.19 0.3 -0.26 -0.26 0.16 0.26 -0.168 -0.54 0.01 0.15 -0.1 0.36 -0.1 -0.1 0.13 0.21 -0.269 -0.16 -0.06 0.14 -0.01 0.25 0.02 -0.1 0.13 0.27 -0.34
10 -0.19 -0.52 0.05 -0.01 -0.03 0.2 -0.38 0.26 0.4 -0.4411 -0.09 -0.33 -0.09 0 -0.25 0.31 -0.53 0.15 0.33 -0.2412 -0.39 -0.32 -0.19 0.1 -0.11 0.34 -0.29 0.13 0.19 -0.4613 -0.47 0.21 -0.2 0.2 -0.08 0.39 0.03 0.04 0.19 -0.3814 -0.33 0.12 -0.19 0.17 0.13 0.29 0.06 0.11 0.29 -0.07
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -7.1218 -7.2933 -7.1753 -6.9775 -6.737 -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 S.E(Log q) 0.4983 0.4764 0.4639 0.4242 0.3525 0.2985 0.2721 0.2344 0.3447 0.3282
Age 12 13 14 Mean Log q -6.5665 -6.5665 -6.5665 S.E(Log q) 0.2732 0.2394 0.1885
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.31 2.451 12.24 0.58 17 0.21 -10.65 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
2 0.91 0.144 7.6 0.21 18 0.48 -7.123 2.08 -0.75 1.91 0.05 18 1.01 -7.294 2.28 -0.906 1.04 0.05 18 1.06 -7.185 0.83 0.334 7.77 0.28 18 0.37 -6.986 0.74 0.663 7.94 0.39 18 0.27 -6.747 0.87 0.321 7.14 0.38 18 0.27 -6.578 1.01 -0.015 6.52 0.41 18 0.29 -6.549 1.02 -0.089 6.43 0.56 18 0.25 -6.52
10 1.17 -0.403 5.97 0.35 18 0.42 -6.5411 1.07 -0.195 6.37 0.47 18 0.37 -6.5612 0.81 1.052 7.09 0.75 18 0.22 -6.6213 0.91 0.461 6.76 0.72 18 0.23 -6.5714 0.88 0.84 6.75 0.82 18 0.16 -6.531
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet
11
E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 292847 0.3 0 0 1 0.382 0.002
P shrinkage mean 308317 0.24 0.618 0.001
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
302320 0.19 0.04 2 0.218 0.001
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 367955 0.26 0.156 0.6 2 1 0.047
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
367955 0.26 0.16 2 0.602 0.047
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 215130 0.231 0.17 0.74 3 1 0.041
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
215130 0.23 0.17 3 0.736 0.041
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 186669 0.209 0.07 0.33 4 1 0.046
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
186669 0.21 0.07 4 0.334 0.046
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 124757 0.19 0.053 0.28 5 1 0.068
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
124757 0.19 0.05 5 0.281 0.068
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 75387 0.203 0.051 0.25 5 1 0.085
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
75387 0.2 0.05 5 0.253 0.085
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 43490 0.151 0.067 0.44 7 1 0.091
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
43490 0.15 0.07 7 0.444 0.091
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 30272 0.138 0.083 0.61 8 1 0.082
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
30272 0.14 0.08 8 0.605 0.082
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 22467 0.128 0.106 0.83 9 1 0.076
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
22467 0.13 0.11 9 0.825 0.076
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 16575 0.123 0.1 0.81 10 1 0.068
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
16575 0.12 0.1 10 0.813 0.068
Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1991
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 10962 0.12 0.095 0.79 11 1 0.083
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
10962 0.12 0.09 11 0.792 0.083
1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1990
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7942 0.116 0.115 0.99 12 1 0.067
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
7942 0.12 0.11 12 0.986 0.067
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Functional Unit 6 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1989
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6763 0.112 0.093 0.83 13 1 0.073
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
6763 0.11 0.09 13 0.835 0.073
1 Age 14 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1988
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5148 0.107 0.074 0.69 14 1 0.099
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
5148 0.11 0.07 14 0.693 0.099
O:\ACFM\WGREPS\wgneph\reports\2003\Data Appendix 2003\WGNEPH Data 2003.doc 41
Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 15:13
Extended Survivors Analysis
males INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 17 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0.016 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.001 0 0.002 0.002 0.0052 0.08 0.417 0.137 0.121 0.159 0.188 0.263 0.149 0.115 0.1413 0.762 0.846 0.762 0.731 0.62 0.685 0.668 0.847 0.538 0.4354 1.163 0.946 0.923 0.967 0.967 0.965 1.203 1.322 1.243 0.6765 1.411 0.911 0.91 0.925 0.938 1.096 1.263 1.346 1.233 0.7256 1.648 1.084 0.956 0.879 1.004 1.097 0.997 1.209 1.041 0.7287 1.67 1.087 0.733 0.719 0.974 1.177 0.957 1.173 0.976 0.7488 1.549 1.251 0.686 0.796 0.782 1.45 0.806 1.262 0.874 0.7649 1.812 1.211 1.023 1.144 1.086 1.072 0.786 0.972 0.814 0.799
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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 2.33E+05 1.33E+05 8.04E+04 3.89E+04 1.55E+04 5.55E+03 1.61E+03 3.63E+02 6.64E+011994 1.79E+05 1.72E+05 9.06E+04 2.78E+04 9.00E+03 2.80E+03 7.92E+02 2.25E+02 5.71E+011995 1.92E+05 1.30E+05 8.42E+04 2.88E+04 8.00E+03 2.68E+03 7.02E+02 1.98E+02 4.77E+011996 2.14E+05 1.42E+05 8.42E+04 2.91E+04 8.47E+03 2.39E+03 7.64E+02 2.50E+02 7.38E+011997 2.14E+05 1.58E+05 9.31E+04 3.00E+04 8.20E+03 2.49E+03 7.33E+02 2.76E+02 8.35E+011998 2.08E+05 1.58E+05 9.98E+04 3.71E+04 8.46E+03 2.38E+03 6.76E+02 2.05E+02 9.35E+011999 1.43E+05 1.54E+05 9.68E+04 3.73E+04 1.05E+04 2.09E+03 5.88E+02 1.54E+02 3.56E+012000 1.62E+05 1.06E+05 8.77E+04 3.68E+04 8.30E+03 2.19E+03 5.72E+02 1.67E+02 5.10E+012001 1.90E+05 1.20E+05 6.77E+04 2.79E+04 7.26E+03 1.60E+03 4.85E+02 1.31E+02 3.51E+012002 1.92E+05 1.41E+05 7.92E+04 2.93E+04 5.95E+03 1.57E+03 4.19E+02 1.35E+02 4.05E+01
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.41E+05 9.05E+04 3.80E+04 1.10E+04 2.14E+03 5.61E+02 1.47E+02 4.67E+01
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.86E+05 1.37E+05 8.63E+04 3.30E+04 9.01E+03 2.45E+03 6.82E+02 1.96E+02 5.43E+01
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1344 0.1381 0.1067 0.1554 0.2642 0.343 0.3659 0.3971 0.49421
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.15 0.06 0.17 0.08 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02 0.03 0.13 0.012 0.05 0.09 -0.05 0.13 0.03 0.03 -0.06 -0.08 -0.07 03 -0.58 -0.51 -0.38 -0.02 -0.02 -0.08 -0.17 -0.14 -0.44 -0.144 -0.42 -0.32 -0.17 -0.16 -0.16 -0.1 -0.1 -0.04 -0.42 -0.185 -0.29 -0.09 -0.05 -0.12 -0.09 0.1 0.08 0 -0.39 -0.316 -0.02 0 0.13 -0.11 -0.08 0.15 0.08 0.04 -0.27 -0.647 0.14 0.02 0.1 -0.27 -0.26 0.2 0.1 0.26 -0.22 -0.78 0.49 -0.04 0.21 -0.2 -0.04 -0.05 0.28 0.04 0.31 -0.539 0 -0.02 0 -0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 -0.06 -0.02 -0.09
O:\ACFM\WGREPS\wgneph\reports\2003\Data Appendix 2003\WGNEPH Data 2003.doc 43
Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 -0.26 0.08 -0.02 -0.14 -0.11 -0.11 0.25 0.15 -0.01 02 -0.12 -0.03 0.03 -0.05 -0.09 -0.06 0.03 0.22 0.09 0.013 -0.11 0.12 0.11 0.18 0 0.13 0.15 0.28 -0.08 -0.214 -0.12 -0.18 -0.11 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.31 0.3 0.33 -0.195 0.07 -0.22 -0.13 0 0 0.17 0.36 0.32 0.32 -0.126 0.22 -0.05 -0.08 -0.05 0.06 0.17 0.13 0.21 0.15 -0.127 0.24 -0.05 -0.34 -0.25 0.03 0.24 0.09 0.18 0.09 -0.098 0.16 0.09 -0.41 -0.15 -0.18 0.44 -0.08 0.25 -0.02 -0.079 0.31 0.06 -0.01 0.2 0.14 0.15 -0.1 0 -0.09 -0.03
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -4.7943 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 -4.3793 S.E(Log q) 0.1889 0.2179 0.232 0.2147 0.2588 0.2648 0.128
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.01 -36.931 12.12 0.03 20 0.14 -11.242 0.17 -16.966 10.87 0.56 20 0.1 -6.29
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 0.29 -6.776 9.45 0.44 20 0.08 -4.794 0.33 -4.351 8.4 0.32 20 0.13 -4.385 0.58 -2.423 6.36 0.52 20 0.19 -4.356 0.74 -1.704 5.27 0.7 20 0.2 -4.377 0.66 -2.321 5.12 0.68 20 0.22 -4.48 0.7 -1.983 4.65 0.68 20 0.24 -4.389 0.84 -3.697 4.29 0.97 20 0.08 -4.341
O:\ACFM\WGREPS\wgneph\reports\2003\Data Appendix 2003\WGNEPH Data 2003.doc 44
Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 141219 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.005
P shrinkage mean 137143 0.14 0 0.005
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
141220 0.3 0 1 0 0.005
1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 90481 0.212 0.008 0.04 2 1 0.141
P shrinkage mean 86338 0.11 0 0.148
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
90481 0.21 0.01 2 0.039 0.141
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 37991 0.174 0.112 0.65 3 1 0.435
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
37991 0.17 0.11 3 0.648 0.435
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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 11031 0.158 0.111 0.71 4 1 0.676
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
11031 0.16 0.11 4 0.706 0.676
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2136 0.198 0.094 0.47 5 1 0.725
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2136 0.2 0.09 5 0.473 0.725
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 561 0.213 0.084 0.39 6 1 0.728
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
561 0.21 0.08 6 0.392 0.728
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Functional Unit 8 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 147 0.212 0.057 0.27 7 1 0.748
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
147 0.21 0.06 7 0.267 0.748
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 47 0.208 0.04 0.19 8 1 0.764
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
47 0.21 0.04 8 0.19 0.764
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 14 0.202 0.022 0.11 9 1 0.799
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
14 0.2 0.02 9 0.111 0.799
O:\ACFM\WGREPS\wgneph\reports\2003\Data Appendix 2003\WGNEPH Data 2003.doc 47
Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
21/03/2003 16:48
Extended Survivors Analysis
females INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 6
Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00232
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2
109 0.004 0.18 0.133 0.1496 0.1978 0.2369 0.2353 0.2153 0.2251 0.254
Iteration 30 0.004 0.18 0.133 0.1496 0.1977 0.2368 0.2352 0.2152 0.225 0.2537
Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.2088 0.3211 0.3048 Iteration 30 0.2085 0.3205 0.3041
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0.015 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.0042 0.086 0.445 0.161 0.143 0.211 0.239 0.273 0.162 0.143 0.183 0.173 0.295 0.193 0.225 0.284 0.25 0.262 0.337 0.161 0.1334 0.212 0.265 0.216 0.273 0.325 0.223 0.29 0.317 0.191 0.155 0.262 0.262 0.273 0.284 0.396 0.234 0.321 0.262 0.229 0.1986 0.299 0.268 0.303 0.26 0.388 0.264 0.35 0.283 0.231 0.2377 0.236 0.249 0.259 0.233 0.362 0.238 0.34 0.226 0.249 0.2358 0.286 0.293 0.246 0.267 0.397 0.236 0.429 0.24 0.277 0.2159 0.372 0.351 0.262 0.307 0.469 0.263 0.543 0.295 0.339 0.225
10 0.534 0.329 0.249 0.376 0.452 0.287 0.635 0.378 0.329 0.25411 0.414 0.303 0.198 0.35 0.46 0.234 0.442 0.388 0.284 0.20912 0.571 0.532 0.324 0.482 0.732 0.358 0.498 0.501 0.439 0.3213 0.819 0.587 0.507 0.674 0.594 0.38 0.448 0.438 0.344 0.304
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 2.30E+05 1.25E+05 7.49E+04 4.97E+04 3.22E+04 2.18E+04 1.32E+04 8.25E+03 5.34E+03 3.22E+031994 1.80E+05 1.70E+05 8.49E+04 5.15E+04 3.29E+04 2.03E+04 1.32E+04 8.54E+03 5.07E+03 3.01E+031995 1.76E+05 1.31E+05 8.08E+04 5.18E+04 3.24E+04 2.07E+04 1.27E+04 8.45E+03 5.22E+03 2.92E+031996 1.87E+05 1.30E+05 8.28E+04 5.46E+04 3.42E+04 2.02E+04 1.25E+04 8.03E+03 5.41E+03 3.29E+031997 1.97E+05 1.39E+05 8.36E+04 5.41E+04 3.40E+04 2.11E+04 1.27E+04 8.13E+03 5.03E+03 3.26E+031998 1.97E+05 1.45E+05 8.32E+04 5.15E+04 3.20E+04 1.87E+04 1.17E+04 7.26E+03 4.48E+03 2.58E+031999 1.63E+05 1.45E+05 8.48E+04 5.30E+04 3.38E+04 2.07E+04 1.18E+04 7.54E+03 4.70E+03 2.82E+032000 1.67E+05 1.21E+05 8.20E+04 5.34E+04 3.25E+04 2.00E+04 1.20E+04 6.86E+03 4.02E+03 2.23E+032001 1.82E+05 1.24E+05 7.60E+04 4.79E+04 3.19E+04 2.05E+04 1.24E+04 7.82E+03 4.42E+03 2.45E+032002 1.84E+05 1.35E+05 7.93E+04 5.30E+04 3.24E+04 2.07E+04 1.33E+04 7.89E+03 4.85E+03 2.58E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.36E+05 8.34E+04 5.69E+04 3.73E+04 2.18E+04 1.34E+04 8.61E+03 5.21E+03 3.17E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.76E+05 1.28E+05 7.80E+04 5.05E+04 3.22E+04 2.03E+04 1.26E+04 7.90E+03 4.90E+03 2.88E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1285 0.1384 0.0884 0.0724 0.0597 0.0671 0.086 0.1186 0.1683 0.2269
10
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13
1993 1.45E+03 8.94E+02 5.61E+021994 1.55E+03 7.87E+02 4.14E+021995 1.78E+03 9.35E+02 3.79E+021996 1.87E+03 1.19E+03 5.54E+021997 1.85E+03 1.08E+03 6.03E+021998 1.70E+03 9.55E+02 4.24E+021999 1.58E+03 1.10E+03 5.47E+022000 1.22E+03 8.33E+02 5.47E+022001 1.25E+03 6.79E+02 4.14E+022002 1.44E+03 7.72E+02 3.58E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
1.64E+03 9.61E+02 4.60E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.63E+03 9.77E+02 5.13E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.2659 0.304 0.31771
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
1 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.2 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.16 0.04 02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.16 0.11 0.13 0.09 0.12 0.08 -0.033 -0.04 -0.07 -0.05 0.11 0.11 0.1 0.12 0.08 0.08 0.014 -0.09 -0.16 -0.16 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.12 0.11 0.02 0.025 -0.15 -0.2 -0.24 -0.13 -0.01 0.01 0.09 0.1 0.07 -0.046 -0.44 -0.57 -0.6 0.06 -0.09 0 -0.03 -0.1 -0.15 -0.47 -0.13 -0.6 -0.55 0.09 -0.04 0.2 0.38 0.1 -0.13 -0.58 -0.07 -0.63 -0.9 -0.16 -0.24 0.03 0.35 0.28 -0.16 -0.659 0.02 -0.35 -1 -0.39 -0.39 0 0.33 0.32 0.01 -0.69
10 0.24 -0.28 -0.64 -0.35 -0.58 -0.04 0.61 0.38 -0.04 -0.4611 0.66 -0.24 -0.52 0.01 -0.84 0.05 0.51 0.48 -0.07 -0.412 0.29 0.26 -0.54 0.14 -0.41 0.02 0.19 0.15 0.15 -0.5113 0 -0.02 -0.05 0.22 0.02 0.27 0.22 0 -0.11 -0.19
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.33 0.05 0.01 -0.06 -0.07 -0.09 0.09 0.07 -0.01 02 -0.17 -0.06 -0.04 -0.04 -0.01 -0.02 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.013 -0.06 -0.04 -0.06 -0.03 0 -0.01 -0.01 0.05 -0.01 -0.074 -0.05 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 -0.085 -0.04 -0.04 0 -0.03 0.03 0 0.01 0 0.01 -0.026 -0.2 -0.17 0.04 0 0.38 0.02 0.36 0.04 -0.08 0.037 -0.38 -0.19 -0.05 -0.05 0.37 -0.02 0.39 -0.13 0.06 0.088 -0.24 -0.09 -0.16 0.02 0.4 -0.09 0.56 -0.13 0.1 -0.079 -0.14 -0.07 -0.26 0 0.41 -0.14 0.63 -0.08 0.14 -0.19
10 0.09 -0.25 -0.44 0.08 0.25 -0.18 0.66 0.04 -0.01 -0.1911 -0.02 -0.19 -0.52 0.15 0.41 -0.24 0.45 0.21 -0.02 -0.2412 -0.06 0 -0.4 0.11 0.51 -0.18 0.2 0.1 0.06 -0.1813 0.3 0.1 0.05 0.44 0.3 -0.12 0.1 -0.03 -0.19 -0.23
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Mean Log -5.6295 -5.6897 -5.6293 -5.469 -5.3462 -5.4885 -5.1249 -5.1249 S.E(Log q) 0.2089 0.2552 0.3048 0.334 0.3369 0.3401 0.2653 0.2183
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.03 -46.405 12.05 0.17 20 0.12 -11.142 0.2 -21.044 10.62 0.74 20 0.07 -6.113 0.19 -17.142 10.27 0.6 20 0.06 -5.894 0.17 -16.19 10 0.51 20 0.05 -5.815 0.15 -16.006 9.68 0.44 20 0.05 -5.7
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
6 0.13 -10.615 9.35 0.2 20 0.06 -5.637 0.09 -9.302 9.09 0.08 20 0.09 -5.698 0.1 -7.854 8.63 0.07 20 0.12 -5.639 0.17 -5.949 7.98 0.13 20 0.16 -5.47
10 0.33 -5.12 7.1 0.39 20 0.19 -5.3511 0.38 -4.116 6.67 0.39 20 0.22 -5.4912 0.56 -3.49 5.91 0.66 20 0.19 -5.1213 0.63 -4.323 5.51 0.84 20 0.13 -5.081
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 135597 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.004
P shrinka 128223 0.14 0 0.004
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
135597 0.3 0 1 0 0.004
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 83387 0.212 0.008 0.04 2 1 0.18
P shrinkage mean 77958 0.09 0 0.191
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
83387 0.21 0.01 2 0.035 0.18
Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 56880 0.174 0.04 0.23 3 1 0.133
P shrinkage mean 50501 0.07 0 0.149
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
56880 0.17 0.04 3 0.228 0.133
1 Age 4 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 37348 0.152 0.037 0.25 4 1 0.15
P shrinkage mean 32230 0.06 0 0.171
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
37348 0.15 0.04 4 0.246 0.15
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1997
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 21794 0.142 0.021 0.15 5 1 0.198
P shrinkage mean 20260 0.07 0 0.211
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
21794 0.14 0.02 5 0.15 0.198
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 13410 0.133 0.013 0.09 6 1 0.237
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
13410 0.13 0.01 6 0.094 0.237
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 8612 0.126 0.023 0.18 7 1 0.235
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
8612 0.13 0.02 7 0.184 0.235
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1994
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5211 0.124 0.018 0.14 8 1 0.215
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
5211 0.12 0.02 8 0.142 0.215
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1993
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3173 0.124 0.059 0.48 9 1 0.225
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
3173 0.12 0.06 9 0.478 0.225
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1992
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1640 0.13 0.064 0.49 10 1 0.253
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1640 0.13 0.06 10 0.494 0.254
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Functional Unit 8 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1991
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 961 0.134 0.078 0.58 11 1 0.208
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
961 0.13 0.08 11 0.579 0.209
1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1990
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 460 0.139 0.067 0.49 12 1 0.32
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
460 0.14 0.07 12 0.486 0.32
Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12
Year class = 1989
Fleet Estimated Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Survivors s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 217 0.146 0.072 0.49 13 1 0.304
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
217 0.15 0.07 13 0.492 0.304
O:\ACFM\WGREPS\wgneph\reports\2003\Data Appendix 2003\WGNEPH Data 2003.doc 56
Management Area H Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 18:56
Extended Survivors Analysis
Botney-Mal-Removals INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 11.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 10 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 2
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 21 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.0033 0.044 0.038 0.031 0.015 0.033 0.045 0.041 0.04 0.083 0.0584 0.155 0.14 0.2 0.122 0.22 0.241 0.268 0.241 0.413 0.3185 0.265 0.23 0.365 0.231 0.435 0.423 0.467 0.373 0.668 0.5196 0.305 0.217 0.378 0.243 0.523 0.485 0.544 0.526 0.695 0.5487 0.367 0.183 0.397 0.258 0.567 0.516 0.577 0.589 0.789 0.5688 0.403 0.189 0.344 0.28 0.48 0.499 0.588 0.633 0.842 0.529 0.354 0.193 0.272 0.288 0.46 0.382 0.599 0.51 0.913 0.476
10 0.315 0.182 0.246 0.26 0.384 0.368 0.46 0.422 0.587 0.439
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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 9.51E+04 7.49E+04 5.45E+04 3.74E+04 2.00E+04 9.89E+03 5.06E+03 2.23E+03 1.04E+03 4.83E+021994 9.90E+04 7.05E+04 5.53E+04 3.86E+04 2.37E+04 1.14E+04 5.40E+03 2.60E+03 1.10E+03 5.38E+021995 1.04E+05 7.34E+04 5.20E+04 3.94E+04 2.49E+04 1.40E+04 6.79E+03 3.33E+03 1.59E+03 6.75E+021996 1.05E+05 7.69E+04 5.43E+04 3.74E+04 2.39E+04 1.28E+04 7.08E+03 3.38E+03 1.75E+03 8.98E+021997 1.17E+05 7.81E+04 5.69E+04 3.96E+04 2.45E+04 1.41E+04 7.43E+03 4.05E+03 1.89E+03 9.72E+021998 1.49E+05 8.66E+04 5.77E+04 4.08E+04 2.35E+04 1.17E+04 6.18E+03 3.12E+03 1.86E+03 8.85E+021999 1.83E+05 1.10E+05 6.40E+04 4.08E+04 2.38E+04 1.14E+04 5.36E+03 2.73E+03 1.41E+03 9.39E+022000 2.57E+05 1.36E+05 8.16E+04 4.55E+04 2.31E+04 1.10E+04 4.91E+03 2.23E+03 1.12E+03 5.72E+022001 3.56E+05 1.91E+05 1.00E+05 5.80E+04 2.65E+04 1.18E+04 4.83E+03 2.02E+03 8.77E+02 5.00E+022002 2.66E+05 2.64E+05 1.41E+05 6.83E+04 2.85E+04 1.01E+04 4.36E+03 1.63E+03 6.44E+02 2.61E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.97E+05 1.95E+05 9.83E+04 3.68E+04 1.25E+04 4.31E+03 1.83E+03 7.16E+02 2.97E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.41E+05 9.56E+04 6.26E+04 4.02E+04 2.23E+04 1.10E+04 5.33E+03 2.55E+03 1.25E+03 6.38E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.4871 0.4636 0.3555 0.2644 0.191 0.1728 0.1985 0.2646 0.34 0.3963
1
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.27 -0.36 0.44 0.86 0.75 0.8 -0.612 0.29 0.16 0.5 0.58 0.6 0.48 -0.283 0.25 0.19 0.49 0.44 0.41 0.49 -0.44 -0.08 0.07 0.15 0.07 -0.01 0.15 -0.55 -0.16 0.02 -0.01 -0.07 -0.04 -0.13 -0.356 0.06 0.02 0.22 0.08 0.06 -0.1 -0.27 -0.14 0.02 0.23 0.26 0.19 -0.16 -0.138 -0.11 -0.1 0.31 0.19 0.38 -0.09 -0.019 -0.02 -0.15 0.2 0.21 0.16 -0.02 -0.01
10 -0.05 -0.02 0.18 0.07 0.01 -0.13 -0.13
10
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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.88 1.22 0.15 -1.86 -0.51 -0.21 -0.87 -0.88 0.54 1.052 0.43 0.83 0.18 -0.84 -0.14 0.04 -0.42 -0.51 0.04 -0.23 0.24 0.58 0.17 -0.86 -0.26 -0.03 -0.23 -0.35 0.27 -0.024 -0.13 0.25 0.4 -0.4 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.2 0.23 0.045 -0.12 0.22 0.48 -0.29 0.16 0.04 0.03 -0.29 0.19 0.016 0.02 0.16 0.51 -0.24 0.34 0.18 0.18 0.05 0.23 0.067 0.21 -0.01 0.56 -0.18 0.42 0.24 0.24 0.16 0.35 0.18 0.3 0.03 0.42 -0.1 0.26 0.2 0.26 0.24 0.41 0.019 0.17 0.04 0.19 -0.07 0.21 -0.06 0.28 0.02 0.49 -0.08
10 0.06 -0.01 0.09 -0.18 0.03 -0.1 0.02 -0.17 0.06 -0.16
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log -10.2609 -7.4622 -5.8321 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 -5.3097 S.E(Log q) 0.4724 0.4066 0.2417 0.2279 0.2316 0.2809 0.2613 0.2085 0.1122
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 2.09 -1.801 15.86 0.22 17 0.97 -13.78 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
2 1.62 -1.283 9.51 0.3 17 0.74 -10.263 1.18 -0.431 6.81 0.36 17 0.5 -7.464 0.85 0.62 6.55 0.63 17 0.21 -5.835 0.69 1.264 6.75 0.63 17 0.15 -5.316 0.64 1.721 6.66 0.7 17 0.12 -5.27 0.73 1.098 6.06 0.63 17 0.16 -5.148 0.92 0.376 5.34 0.71 17 0.18 -5.139 1.01 -0.043 5.19 0.79 17 0.19 -5.2
10 0.92 1.039 5.43 0.95 17 0.1 -5.35
O:\ACFM\WGREPS\wgneph\reports\2003\Data Appendix 2003\WGNEPH Data 2003.doc 59
Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 562204 1.117 0 0 1 0.085 0
P shrinkage me 95598 0.46 0.492 0
F shrinkage me 371407 0.5 0.423 0
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
197266 0.33 0.9 3 2.765 0
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 180640 0.448 0.277 0.62 2 0.553 0.003
F shrinkage me 213958 0.5 0.447 0.003
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
194823 0.33 0.17 3 0.498 0.003
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 91513 0.306 0.181 0.59 3 0.715 0.063
F shrinkage me 117856 0.5 0.285 0.049
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
98343 0.26 0.15 4 0.564 0.058
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 35429 0.215 0.18 0.84 4 0.792 0.328
F shrinkage me 42756 0.5 0.208 0.279
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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
36843 0.2 0.14 5 0.727 0.318
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12215 0.179 0.114 0.64 5 0.789 0.53
F shrinkage me 13877 0.5 0.211 0.479
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
12547 0.18 0.09 6 0.535 0.519
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4346 0.165 0.07 0.43 6 0.785 0.545
F shrinkage me 4172 0.5 0.215 0.562
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
4308 0.17 0.06 7 0.341 0.548
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1885 0.157 0.09 0.57 7 0.786 0.555
F shrinkage me 1645 0.5 0.214 0.616
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Functional Unit 5 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1831 0.16 0.08 8 0.477 0.568
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 764 0.163 0.075 0.46 8 0.779 0.494
F shrinkage me 572 0.5 0.221 0.617
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
716 0.17 0.08 9 0.464 0.52
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 319 0.167 0.083 0.5 9 0.778 0.449
F shrinkage me 230 0.5 0.222 0.581
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
297 0.17 0.09 10 0.506 0.476
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 134 0.173 0.094 0.54 10 0.775 0.414
F shrinkage me 97 0.5 0.225 0.533
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
125 0.18 0.09 11 0.524 0.439
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 22:57
Extended Survivors Analysis
Botney-FeINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 16.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 15 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 7
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00017
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0001 0.0074 0.0681 0.1459 0.2336 0.2701 0.2975 0.311 0.2821 0.2967 Iteration 30 0.0001 0.0074 0.0681 0.1459 0.2336 0.2701 0.2975 0.311 0.2821 0.2967
Age 11 12 13 14 15 Iteration 29 0.2643 0.3017 0.2884 0.3044 0.2957 Iteration 30 0.2642 0.3017 0.2883 0.3044 0.2957
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.003 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.005 0.0073 0.019 0.035 0.021 0.014 0.028 0.05 0.046 0.038 0.042 0.0684 0.056 0.055 0.058 0.038 0.071 0.108 0.13 0.118 0.117 0.1465 0.12 0.076 0.115 0.089 0.131 0.212 0.253 0.228 0.23 0.2346 0.206 0.099 0.152 0.135 0.177 0.275 0.365 0.368 0.323 0.277 0.295 0.118 0.17 0.183 0.23 0.304 0.362 0.401 0.353 0.2988 0.315 0.116 0.175 0.184 0.236 0.303 0.386 0.542 0.413 0.3119 0.324 0.098 0.171 0.161 0.291 0.31 0.345 0.579 0.384 0.282
10 0.403 0.127 0.205 0.18 0.275 0.263 0.374 0.636 0.482 0.29711 0.462 0.161 0.259 0.166 0.23 0.251 0.357 0.72 0.398 0.26412 0.425 0.186 0.309 0.181 0.2 0.277 0.405 0.619 0.527 0.30213 0.443 0.154 0.306 0.3 0.154 0.302 0.362 0.568 0.538 0.28814 0.392 0.224 0.198 0.281 0.207 0.26 0.324 0.7 0.418 0.30415 0.344 0.136 0.148 0.177 0.176 0.221 0.319 0.433 0.362 0.296
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 4.65E+04 3.63E+04 2.76E+04 2.04E+04 1.46E+04 9.58E+03 6.40E+03 3.66E+03 2.36E+03 1.39E+031994 4.52E+04 3.44E+04 2.68E+04 2.22E+04 1.58E+04 1.06E+04 6.39E+03 3.90E+03 2.19E+03 1.39E+031995 4.48E+04 3.34E+04 2.54E+04 2.12E+04 1.72E+04 1.20E+04 7.88E+03 4.65E+03 2.84E+03 1.62E+031996 4.50E+04 3.32E+04 2.47E+04 2.03E+04 1.64E+04 1.26E+04 8.41E+03 5.45E+03 3.20E+03 1.96E+031997 5.57E+04 3.33E+04 2.45E+04 1.99E+04 1.60E+04 1.23E+04 8.98E+03 5.74E+03 3.71E+03 2.23E+031998 7.70E+04 4.13E+04 2.46E+04 1.95E+04 1.52E+04 1.15E+04 8.42E+03 5.84E+03 3.71E+03 2.27E+031999 1.01E+05 5.70E+04 3.04E+04 1.91E+04 1.44E+04 1.01E+04 7.15E+03 5.09E+03 3.53E+03 2.23E+032000 1.36E+05 7.49E+04 4.20E+04 2.38E+04 1.38E+04 9.12E+03 5.72E+03 4.08E+03 2.83E+03 2.05E+032001 1.88E+05 1.01E+05 5.53E+04 3.31E+04 1.73E+04 8.98E+03 5.17E+03 3.14E+03 1.94E+03 1.30E+032002 3.01E+05 1.40E+05 7.43E+04 4.34E+04 2.41E+04 1.12E+04 5.32E+03 2.97E+03 1.70E+03 1.08E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 2.23E+05 1.03E+05 5.68E+04 3.07E+04 1.56E+04 7.03E+03 3.24E+03 1.78E+03 1.05E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
7.46E+04 4.71E+04 3.07E+04 2.20E+04 1.54E+04 1.04E+04 6.78E+03 4.45E+03 2.88E+03 1.88E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.6628 0.5111 0.391 0.2804 0.1832 0.1397 0.2089 0.2585 0.3148 0.3427
AGE YEAR 11 12 13 14 15
1993 9.64E+02 8.89E+02 6.52E+02 6.42E+02 4.90E+021994 7.63E+02 4.97E+02 4.76E+02 3.42E+02 3.55E+021995 1.01E+03 5.32E+02 3.38E+02 3.34E+02 2.24E+021996 1.08E+03 6.36E+02 3.20E+02 2.04E+02 2.25E+021997 1.34E+03 7.51E+02 4.34E+02 1.94E+02 1.26E+021998 1.39E+03 8.72E+02 5.03E+02 3.05E+02 1.29E+021999 1.43E+03 8.82E+02 5.41E+02 3.04E+02 1.93E+022000 1.25E+03 8.19E+02 4.82E+02 3.08E+02 1.80E+022001 8.87E+02 4.99E+02 3.61E+02 2.23E+02 1.25E+022002 6.57E+02 4.88E+02 2.41E+02 1.73E+02 1.20E+02
10
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
6.59E+02 4.13E+02 2.96E+02 1.48E+02 1.04E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.22E+03 7.96E+02 5.16E+02 3.46E+02 2.31E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.3933 0.4324 0.5026 0.5544 0.58741
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.04 0.32 0.64 0.46 0.33 0.53 -0.352 -0.09 0.24 0.37 0.39 0.31 0.46 -0.453 -0.22 0.14 0.35 0.3 0.29 0.4 -0.54 -0.38 -0.03 0.17 0.17 0.09 0.25 -0.675 -0.52 -0.06 -0.02 -0.06 -0.03 0.04 -0.86 -0.71 -0.26 -0.25 0.09 -0.03 0.12 -0.677 -0.78 -0.35 -0.36 0.07 0.05 0.03 -0.598 -0.89 -0.54 -0.42 0.21 0.2 0.22 -0.269 -0.71 -0.64 -0.43 0.17 0.33 0.47 0.01
10 -0.7 -0.45 -0.61 -0.09 0.32 0.12 0.1311 -0.78 -0.69 -0.7 -0.12 0.3 0.52 -0.2112 -0.84 -0.79 -0.75 -0.09 0.04 0.24 -0.3813 -0.53 -0.75 -0.56 -0.55 0.18 0.1 -0.7514 -0.45 -0.57 -0.37 -0.33 0.08 0.63 -0.7615 -0.51 -0.41 -0.28 0.01 0.26 0.31 -0.17
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0.04 1.04 0.35 -0.4 -0.08 0.02 -0.21 -0.49 -0.54 -0.182 -0.21 0.88 0.16 -0.59 -0.06 0.18 -0.1 -0.34 -0.37 0.143 -0.38 0.7 0 -0.76 -0.19 0.28 0.1 -0.19 -0.2 0.354 -0.18 0.28 0.14 -0.61 -0.15 0.18 0.25 0.06 -0.05 0.245 0 0.01 0.23 -0.34 -0.13 0.26 0.33 0.12 0.03 0.126 0.19 -0.06 0.17 -0.27 -0.17 0.18 0.35 0.26 0.03 -0.087 0.4 -0.03 0.13 -0.11 -0.06 0.13 0.2 0.2 -0.03 -0.138 0.47 -0.04 0.16 -0.11 -0.03 0.13 0.26 0.5 0.13 -0.099 0.5 -0.22 0.14 -0.24 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.56 0.05 -0.18
10 0.72 0.04 0.32 -0.13 0.12 -0.02 0.23 0.66 0.28 -0.1311 0.85 0.28 0.55 -0.21 -0.06 -0.06 0.18 0.78 0.09 -0.2512 0.77 0.42 0.73 -0.13 -0.2 0.04 0.31 0.63 0.37 -0.1213 0.81 0.23 0.72 0.38 -0.46 0.12 0.2 0.55 0.39 -0.1614 0.69 0.61 0.28 0.32 -0.16 -0.03 0.09 0.75 0.14 -0.1115 0.56 0.11 -0.01 -0.14 -0.33 -0.19 0.07 0.28 0 -0.14
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log q -13.2669 -9.672 -7.6743 -6.8013 -6.2076 -5.8677 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 S.E(Log q) 0.4548 0.3996 0.397 0.3026 0.2762 0.2672 0.2405 0.2808 0.3168 0.3521
Age 11 12 13 14 15 Mean Log q -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 -5.7201 S.E(Log q) 0.4437 0.4518 0.4858 0.4506 0.2499
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 1.61 -2.088 14.51 0.54 17 0.64 -13.272 1.24 -0.81 9.41 0.53 17 0.5 -9.673 0.94 0.188 7.83 0.52 17 0.39 -7.674 0.85 0.539 7.29 0.55 17 0.26 -6.85 0.74 0.757 7.1 0.46 17 0.21 -6.216 1.48 -0.546 4.23 0.11 17 0.41 -5.877 0.94 0.182 5.91 0.46 17 0.24 -5.728 1.26 -0.642 4.92 0.38 17 0.34 -5.639 0.96 0.151 5.72 0.55 17 0.3 -5.62
10 1.28 -0.783 5.01 0.43 17 0.41 -5.5711 1.18 -0.457 5.31 0.39 17 0.51 -5.5812 1.51 -1.172 4.99 0.34 17 0.63 -5.5613 1.48 -1.179 5.28 0.37 17 0.68 -5.5914 1.04 -0.158 5.56 0.61 17 0.46 -5.5815 0.82 1.928 5.67 0.92 17 0.18 -5.721
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2001
Fleet
10
E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 186365 0.473 0 0 1 0.527 0
F shrinkage m 272988 0.5 0.473 0
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
223216 0.34 0.26 2 0.763 0
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 87736 0.312 0.334 1.07 2 0.718 0.009
F shrinkage m 152916 0.5 0.282 0.005
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
102640 0.26 0.29 3 1.091 0.007
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 49450 0.249 0.266 1.07 3 0.789 0.078
F shrinkage m 95500 0.5 0.211 0.041
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
56808 0.22 0.26 4 1.165 0.068
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 29008 0.196 0.143 0.73 4 0.846 0.154
F shrinkage m 41851 0.5 0.154 0.109
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
30694 0.18 0.13 5 0.737 0.146
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15390 0.165 0.055 0.33 5 0.87 0.237
F shrinkage m 17433 0.5 0.13 0.212
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
15642 0.16 0.05 6 0.318 0.234
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7160 0.146 0.038 0.26 6 0.878 0.266
F shrinkage m 6149 0.5 0.122 0.303
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
7028 0.14 0.04 7 0.274 0.27
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3296 0.136 0.071 0.52 7 0.876 0.293
F shrinkage m 2849 0.5 0.124 0.332
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
3237 0.13 0.06 8 0.48 0.298
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1847 0.132 0.084 0.63 8 0.87 0.302
F shrinkage m 1413 0.5 0.13 0.379
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1784 0.13 0.08 9 0.612 0.311
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1113 0.133 0.103 0.78 9 0.861 0.268
F shrinkage m 730 0.5 0.139 0.384
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1049 0.13 0.1 10 0.78 0.282
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 706 0.136 0.099 0.73 10 0.845 0.279
F shrinkage m 450 0.5 0.155 0.409
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
659 0.14 0.1 11 0.742 0.297
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1991
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 460 0.143 0.099 0.69 11 0.811 0.24
F shrinkage m 259 0.5 0.189 0.394
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
413 0.15 0.11 12 0.759 0.264
1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1990
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 325 0.147 0.084 0.57 12 0.793 0.278
F shrinkage m 206 0.5 0.207 0.409
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
296 0.16 0.09 13 0.595 0.302
Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1989
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 167 0.167 0.085 0.51 13 0.745 0.26
F shrinkage m 105 0.5 0.255 0.387
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
148 0.18 0.1 14 0.54 0.288
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Functional Unit 5 – Females Tuning Data Age 14 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1988
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 115 0.17 0.076 0.45 14 0.745 0.281
F shrinkage m 79 0.5 0.255 0.384
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
104 0.18 0.08 15 0.449 0.304
Age 15 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1987
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 73 0.163 0.064 0.39 15 0.813 0.296
F shrinkage m 74 0.5 0.187 0.293
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
73 0.16 0.06 16 0.345 0.296
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Management Area C Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data. Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 18:04
Extended Survivors Analysis
males INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2
Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 17 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0.002 0.005 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001 0.0012 0.089 0.288 0.256 0.071 0.097 0.041 0.123 0.054 0.063 0.0953 0.369 0.744 0.52 0.351 0.439 0.225 0.396 0.337 0.371 0.3884 0.693 0.937 0.773 0.684 0.767 0.533 0.677 0.689 0.661 0.6535 0.608 0.904 0.756 0.894 0.962 0.681 0.753 0.71 0.749 0.5996 0.382 0.786 0.779 0.869 0.791 0.604 0.644 0.552 0.64 0.5767 0.461 0.804 0.768 1.058 0.562 0.723 0.715 0.521 0.565 0.6288 0.639 0.718 1.107 1.137 0.614 0.531 0.874 0.578 0.564 0.7049 0.766 0.924 0.915 0.576 0.583 0.637 0.861 0.632 0.7 0.721
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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 2.35E+05 1.93E+05 1.16E+05 6.32E+04 1.88E+04 6.27E+03 2.06E+03 6.13E+02 1.55E+021994 1.89E+05 1.74E+05 1.30E+05 5.92E+04 2.34E+04 7.57E+03 3.17E+03 9.64E+02 2.40E+021995 1.77E+05 1.40E+05 9.68E+04 4.59E+04 1.72E+04 7.02E+03 2.56E+03 1.05E+03 3.48E+021996 1.81E+05 1.30E+05 8.03E+04 4.26E+04 1.57E+04 5.98E+03 2.39E+03 8.79E+02 2.57E+021997 1.91E+05 1.34E+05 8.99E+04 4.19E+04 1.59E+04 4.76E+03 1.86E+03 6.14E+02 2.09E+021998 1.91E+05 1.41E+05 8.99E+04 4.29E+04 1.44E+04 4.51E+03 1.60E+03 7.83E+02 2.46E+021999 2.03E+05 1.42E+05 1.00E+05 5.32E+04 1.87E+04 5.40E+03 1.83E+03 5.75E+02 3.41E+022000 2.31E+05 1.50E+05 9.29E+04 5.01E+04 2.00E+04 6.51E+03 2.10E+03 6.62E+02 1.78E+022001 2.15E+05 1.71E+05 1.05E+05 4.92E+04 1.86E+04 7.29E+03 2.78E+03 9.24E+02 2.75E+022002 2.04E+05 1.59E+05 1.19E+05 5.38E+04 1.88E+04 6.53E+03 2.85E+03 1.17E+03 3.90E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.51E+05 1.07E+05 6.00E+04 2.08E+04 7.65E+03 2.72E+03 1.13E+03 4.29E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
2.07E+05 1.54E+05 1.03E+05 4.91E+04 1.74E+04 5.78E+03 2.10E+03 7.32E+02 2.36E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1152 0.1236 0.149 0.1439 0.1668 0.2134 0.2676 0.299 0.33981
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.35 -0.4 -0.39 -0.11 0.13 0.01 -0.05 -0.1 -0.07 -0.242 0.51 0.9 0.71 -0.08 -0.09 0.12 0.07 -0.18 -0.86 03 0.53 0.65 0.2 0.26 0.12 0.47 0.15 -0.04 -0.04 -0.164 0.24 0.33 -0.11 0.13 0.07 0.37 -0.07 -0.17 -0.01 -0.055 0.37 0.35 0.1 0.04 0.13 0.17 0.06 -0.18 0.1 06 0.48 0.29 0.1 -0.21 0.11 0.03 0.12 -0.35 0.03 -0.087 0.58 0.37 0.36 -0.33 0.14 -0.13 0.27 -0.4 -0.02 0.118 0.97 -0.33 0.96 -0.21 0.06 -0.01 0.23 -0.21 -0.24 0.339 0 -0.04 0.06 -0.07 0.05 0.01 0 -0.06 0.06 0.2
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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 -0.08 0.06 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.09 0 -0.05 -0.06 02 -0.17 0.99 1 -0.11 0.08 -0.73 0.25 -0.52 -0.26 0.23 -0.24 0.45 0.22 0 0.09 -0.5 -0.07 -0.18 0.04 0.114 -0.17 0.12 0.06 0.11 0.09 -0.2 -0.09 -0.03 0.05 0.075 -0.3 0.08 0.03 0.37 0.31 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.17 -0.016 -0.76 -0.05 0.06 0.34 0.12 -0.08 -0.14 -0.24 0.02 -0.057 -0.57 -0.03 0.05 0.54 -0.22 0.1 -0.04 -0.3 -0.1 0.048 -0.25 -0.14 0.41 0.61 -0.13 -0.21 0.16 -0.2 -0.1 0.159 -0.07 0.11 0.22 -0.06 -0.18 -0.03 0.14 -0.11 0.11 0.17
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -6.9402 -5.4583 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 -4.9042 S.E(Log q) 0.5347 0.2458 0.1256 0.1811 0.2564 0.2716 0.2868 0.1337
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 -0.05 -27.746 12.26 0.13 20 0.11 -11.96 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
2 0.04 -13.599 11.74 0.03 20 0.13 -6.943 0.32 -6.754 9.58 0.51 20 0.11 -5.464 0.56 -3.008 7.48 0.6 20 0.1 -4.95 0.5 -2.698 7.3 0.42 20 0.13 -4.846 0.42 -3.612 7.09 0.41 20 0.17 -4.977 0.5 -3.735 6.3 0.58 20 0.18 -4.948 0.52 -4.298 5.7 0.68 20 0.18 -4.879 0.76 -4.178 5.01 0.95 20 0.08 -4.871
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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 151017 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.001
P shrinkage m 154431 0.12 0 0.001
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
151017 0.3 0 1 0 0.001
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 107341 0.264 0.106 0.4 2 1 0.095
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
107341 0.26 0.11 2 0.403 0.095
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 59965 0.198 0.086 0.44 3 1 0.388
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
59965 0.2 0.09 3 0.436 0.388
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 20757 0.169 0.087 0.51 4 1 0.653
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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
20757 0.17 0.09 4 0.515 0.653
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7653 0.162 0.048 0.3 5 1 0.599
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
7653 0.16 0.05 5 0.297 0.599
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2719 0.168 0.064 0.38 6 1 0.576
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2719 0.17 0.06 6 0.38 0.576
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1125 0.165 0.05 0.3 7 1 0.628
Weighted prediction :
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Functional Unit 11 – MalesTuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1125 0.17 0.05 7 0.3 0.628
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 429 0.161 0.057 0.35 8 1 0.704
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
429 0.16 0.06 8 0.355 0.704
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 140 0.161 0.065 0.4 9 1 0.721
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
140 0.16 0.06 9 0.401 0.721
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
21/03/2003 17:39
Extended Survivors Analysis
females INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4
Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .03227
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0023 0.1229 0.1307 0.1607 0.1828 0.2036 0.22 0.2427 0.1968 0.2344 Iteration 30 0.0023 0.1226 0.1303 0.1601 0.182 0.2026 0.2186 0.2407 0.1948 0.2312
Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.2286 0.2427 0.342 Iteration 30 0.2247 0.2373 0.3306
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Functional Units 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0.002 0.002 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0 0.001 0.0022 0.147 0.286 0.234 0.048 0.142 0.074 0.168 0.112 0.131 0.1233 0.128 0.215 0.201 0.076 0.173 0.089 0.178 0.13 0.115 0.134 0.131 0.186 0.197 0.117 0.185 0.117 0.189 0.147 0.133 0.165 0.141 0.176 0.224 0.15 0.195 0.139 0.227 0.167 0.149 0.1826 0.168 0.194 0.261 0.17 0.214 0.164 0.25 0.202 0.158 0.2037 0.2 0.214 0.321 0.194 0.221 0.201 0.263 0.24 0.179 0.2198 0.191 0.209 0.378 0.233 0.218 0.226 0.231 0.301 0.2 0.2419 0.206 0.172 0.32 0.211 0.211 0.245 0.157 0.262 0.171 0.195
10 0.259 0.238 0.32 0.243 0.252 0.328 0.165 0.278 0.207 0.23111 0.279 0.234 0.28 0.247 0.23 0.342 0.132 0.254 0.212 0.22512 0.254 0.209 0.28 0.209 0.189 0.296 0.157 0.246 0.198 0.23713 0.251 0.268 0.332 0.208 0.261 0.334 0.194 0.318 0.283 0.331
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 2.47E+05 1.58E+05 9.40E+04 6.34E+04 4.23E+04 2.90E+04 1.92E+04 1.25E+04 7.02E+03 4.61E+031994 2.22E+05 1.83E+05 1.01E+05 6.77E+04 4.55E+04 3.01E+04 2.01E+04 1.29E+04 8.46E+03 4.68E+031995 1.94E+05 1.64E+05 1.02E+05 6.67E+04 4.60E+04 3.12E+04 2.03E+04 1.33E+04 8.57E+03 5.83E+031996 2.06E+05 1.43E+05 9.64E+04 6.82E+04 4.49E+04 3.01E+04 1.97E+04 1.21E+04 7.45E+03 5.10E+031997 2.07E+05 1.53E+05 1.01E+05 7.31E+04 4.96E+04 3.16E+04 2.08E+04 1.33E+04 7.82E+03 4.93E+031998 2.26E+05 1.53E+05 9.81E+04 6.96E+04 4.97E+04 3.34E+04 2.09E+04 1.37E+04 8.75E+03 5.18E+031999 2.19E+05 1.67E+05 1.05E+05 7.35E+04 5.07E+04 3.54E+04 2.32E+04 1.40E+04 8.93E+03 5.61E+032000 2.09E+05 1.62E+05 1.05E+05 7.20E+04 4.98E+04 3.31E+04 2.26E+04 1.46E+04 9.09E+03 6.25E+032001 2.09E+05 1.55E+05 1.07E+05 7.54E+04 5.09E+04 3.45E+04 2.21E+04 1.45E+04 8.87E+03 5.73E+032002 2.07E+05 1.54E+05 1.00E+05 7.84E+04 5.41E+04 3.59E+04 2.41E+04 1.51E+04 9.75E+03 6.12E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.53E+05 1.01E+05 7.24E+04 5.49E+04 3.71E+04 2.42E+04 1.60E+04 9.84E+03 6.65E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
2.08E+05 1.53E+05 9.79E+04 6.92E+04 4.77E+04 3.23E+04 2.13E+04 1.36E+04 8.59E+03 5.56E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.088 0.0975 0.0818 0.087 0.0909 0.0976 0.1095 0.1156 0.1323 0.1494
10
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13
1993 3.19E+03 1.98E+03 1.50E+031994 2.91E+03 1.98E+03 1.26E+031995 3.02E+03 1.89E+03 1.31E+031996 3.47E+03 1.87E+03 1.17E+031997 3.27E+03 2.22E+03 1.24E+031998 3.14E+03 2.13E+03 1.50E+031999 3.06E+03 1.83E+03 1.30E+032000 3.89E+03 2.19E+03 1.28E+032001 3.87E+03 2.47E+03 1.40E+032002 3.81E+03 2.56E+03 1.66E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
4.04E+03 2.54E+03 1.70E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
3.49E+03 2.19E+03 1.40E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1645 0.184 0.2011
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
1 -0.24 -0.17 0.08 0.14 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.01 -0.032 -0.13 -0.15 -0.05 0.07 0.07 0.13 0.17 0.16 0.03 0.043 -0.12 -0.17 -0.11 -0.07 0 0.05 0.16 0.13 0.07 0.074 0.35 0.27 0.27 -0.3 -0.22 0.03 0.36 -0.06 -0.24 0.055 0.15 0.29 0.06 -0.31 -0.32 0.18 0.53 0.06 -0.32 0.036 -0.09 0.19 -0.13 -0.43 -0.29 0.12 0.64 0.23 -0.38 0.057 -0.31 0.03 -0.36 -0.57 -0.27 0.07 0.62 0.35 -0.33 0.078 -0.81 -0.19 -0.68 -0.61 -0.35 -0.03 0.63 0.42 -0.41 0.199 -0.65 -0.14 -0.69 -0.83 -0.37 -0.11 0.58 0.5 -0.47 0.2
10 -0.51 0.04 -0.46 -0.73 -0.5 -0.17 0.56 0.4 -0.43 0.1511 -0.34 0.07 -0.41 -0.47 -0.65 -0.23 0.64 0.34 -0.37 0.2912 -0.37 0 -0.28 -0.17 -0.29 -0.15 0.42 0.19 -0.37 0.1313 0.03 0.1 0.06 0.22 0.3 0.57 0.75 0.1 -0.19 0.23
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.17 -0.07 0.07 0.02 0.01 -0.09 -0.05 0 0 02 -0.03 -0.06 0.02 -0.06 0.02 -0.06 -0.04 -0.07 0.01 0.013 0 0.02 0.03 -0.06 0.02 -0.06 -0.02 -0.06 -0.08 04 -0.32 0.02 0.21 -0.14 0.19 -0.21 0.14 -0.06 -0.04 0.185 -0.37 -0.16 0.2 -0.02 0.11 -0.16 0.2 -0.05 -0.05 0.186 -0.33 -0.19 0.23 -0.03 0.07 -0.13 0.17 0 -0.12 0.167 -0.29 -0.22 0.3 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 0.08 0.04 -0.13 0.18 -0.41 -0.32 0.39 0.09 -0.11 -0.01 -0.11 0.2 -0.09 0.139 -0.2 -0.38 0.36 0.12 -0.01 0.2 -0.36 0.19 -0.11 0.05
10 -0.12 -0.21 0.21 0.11 0.01 0.34 -0.47 0.1 -0.07 0.0711 -0.01 -0.2 0.11 0.16 -0.05 0.42 -0.65 0.05 -0.02 0.0712 -0.04 -0.24 0.18 0.06 -0.17 0.34 -0.41 0.08 -0.02 0.213 -0.05 0.01 0.35 0.06 0.15 0.46 -0.21 0.34 0.34 0.53
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Mean Log q -6.4023 -6.2752 -6.1445 -6.0137 -5.9427 -6.0749 -5.9245 -5.9567 -6.0273 -6.0273 S.E(Log q) 0.1847 0.2106 0.2245 0.224 0.284 0.3071 0.2852 0.3219 0.2409 0.3404
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0 -45.758 12.25 0 20 0.09 -11.892 0.14 -20.472 11.19 0.53 20 0.07 -6.63 0.16 -12.588 10.69 0.37 20 0.07 -6.55
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
4 0.24 -8.057 10 0.39 20 0.07 -6.45 0.21 -8.383 9.83 0.33 20 0.08 -6.286 0.19 -7.863 9.57 0.26 20 0.09 -6.147 0.23 -7.276 9.04 0.33 20 0.09 -6.018 0.18 -8.552 8.86 0.27 20 0.1 -5.949 0.17 -7.614 8.54 0.2 20 0.12 -6.07
10 0.25 -6.764 7.94 0.34 20 0.13 -5.9211 0.26 -7.298 7.59 0.39 20 0.13 -5.9612 0.4 -5.712 7.02 0.6 20 0.12 -6.0313 0.4 -4.816 6.68 0.5 20 0.15 -5.811
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 153173 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.002
P shrinkage m 153323 0.1 0 0.002
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
153173 0.3 0 1 0 0.002
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 101469 0.212 0.007 0.03 2 1 0.122
P shrinkage m 97927 0.08 0 0.126
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
101469 0.21 0.01 2 0.034 0.123
Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 72443 0.174 0.005 0.03 3 1 0.13
P shrinkage m 69222 0.09 0 0.136
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
72443 0.17 0 3 0.028 0.13
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 54902 0.151 0.066 0.43 4 1 0.16
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
54902 0.15 0.07 4 0.434 0.16
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 37077 0.137 0.053 0.38 5 1 0.181
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
37077 0.14 0.05 5 0.385 0.182
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 24160 0.126 0.039 0.31 6 1 0.202
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
24160 0.13 0.04 6 0.306 0.203
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15980 0.119 0.038 0.32 7 1 0.217
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
15980 0.12 0.04 7 0.32 0.219
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 9835 0.115 0.048 0.42 8 1 0.239
Weighted prediction :
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
9835 0.11 0.05 8 0.42 0.241
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6645 0.114 0.037 0.33 9 1 0.193
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
6645 0.11 0.04 9 0.325 0.195
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4038 0.114 0.04 0.35 10 1 0.228
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
4038 0.11 0.04 10 0.351 0.231
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Functional Unit 11 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1991
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2543 0.113 0.033 0.29 11 1 0.221
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2543 0.11 0.03 11 0.295 0.225
1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1990
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1698 0.111 0.049 0.44 12 1 0.232
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1698 0.11 0.05 12 0.436 0.237
Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12
Year class = 1989
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1017 0.112 0.084 0.76 13 1 0.32
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1017 0.11 0.08 13 0.756 0.331
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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 15:52
Extended Survivors Analysis
males INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 2
Regression type = P Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates not shrunk to the population mean
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 21 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.0012 0.093 0.069 0.079 0.078 0.078 0.094 0.1 0.066 0.117 0.0563 0.347 0.432 0.43 0.309 0.336 0.262 0.382 0.27 0.317 0.1864 0.571 0.788 0.788 0.593 0.69 0.648 0.68 0.609 0.568 0.4665 0.608 0.908 0.905 0.678 0.792 0.725 0.76 0.747 0.692 0.4816 0.634 0.789 0.747 0.669 0.86 0.589 0.663 0.659 0.629 0.4487 0.676 0.732 0.57 0.672 1.047 0.49 0.627 0.614 0.559 0.4998 0.61 0.654 0.622 0.54 1.064 0.489 0.505 0.663 0.523 0.5449 0.903 1.123 0.815 0.756 0.904 0.57 0.763 0.873 0.703 0.589
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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 2.60E+05 2.28E+05 1.77E+05 8.78E+04 3.09E+04 1.06E+04 4.04E+03 1.57E+03 4.85E+021994 2.61E+05 1.93E+05 1.54E+05 9.26E+04 3.68E+04 1.25E+04 4.15E+03 1.52E+03 6.33E+021995 2.45E+05 1.93E+05 1.33E+05 7.39E+04 3.12E+04 1.10E+04 4.20E+03 1.48E+03 5.86E+021996 2.24E+05 1.82E+05 1.32E+05 6.43E+04 2.49E+04 9.35E+03 3.86E+03 1.76E+03 5.88E+021997 2.40E+05 1.66E+05 1.24E+05 7.19E+04 2.63E+04 9.37E+03 3.55E+03 1.46E+03 7.59E+021998 2.37E+05 1.78E+05 1.14E+05 6.59E+04 2.67E+04 8.83E+03 2.94E+03 9.22E+02 3.73E+021999 2.42E+05 1.75E+05 1.20E+05 6.48E+04 2.55E+04 9.58E+03 3.63E+03 1.33E+03 4.19E+022000 3.26E+05 1.79E+05 1.18E+05 6.06E+04 2.43E+04 8.84E+03 3.66E+03 1.44E+03 5.96E+022001 2.51E+05 2.41E+05 1.24E+05 6.65E+04 2.44E+04 8.54E+03 3.39E+03 1.47E+03 5.48E+022002 2.59E+05 1.86E+05 1.59E+05 6.69E+04 2.79E+04 9.04E+03 3.37E+03 1.43E+03 6.44E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.92E+05 1.30E+05 9.79E+04 3.11E+04 1.28E+04 4.28E+03 1.52E+03 6.17E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
2.68E+05 2.01E+05 1.39E+05 7.20E+04 2.77E+04 9.71E+03 3.64E+03 1.38E+03 5.26E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1422 0.1515 0.1504 0.1322 0.1248 0.1127 0.1126 0.1841 0.26091
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.15 -0.15 -0.29 -0.22 -0.19 -0.25 -0.22 -0.15 -0.15 -0.092 0.53 1.18 0.33 0.06 0.31 0 -0.03 0.31 -0.35 -0.573 0.66 0.83 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.31 -0.07 -0.02 -0.2 -0.244 0.32 0.12 -0.14 -0.08 -0.23 0.14 -0.07 -0.39 -0.14 -0.045 0.31 -0.05 -0.08 -0.03 -0.17 -0.05 -0.01 -0.49 -0.14 -0.116 0.45 -0.01 -0.04 -0.23 -0.14 0.06 -0.11 -0.46 -0.46 -0.167 0.08 0.15 0.11 -0.4 -0.11 0.05 0.01 -0.34 -0.55 -0.118 0.06 -0.14 0.18 -0.3 -0.23 0.17 -0.25 -0.14 -0.77 0.019 0 -0.01 0.03 -0.04 0.1 0.13 -0.03 0.1 0.05 0.5
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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued.
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020.14 0.1 0.12 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.04 -0.2 0.020.04 -0.41 0.04 0 -0.08 0.24 0.22 -0.16 0.42 -0.02
-0.02 0.05 0.37 0.01 0.01 -0.1 0.18 -0.12 0.04 -0.19-0.19 -0.02 0.29 -0.02 0.05 0.12 0.08 0.01 -0.05 0.05-0.25 0 0.32 0 0.07 0.12 0.08 0.1 0.03 -0.03
-0.2 -0.14 0.13 -0.01 0.15 -0.08 -0.06 -0.02 -0.06 -0.1-0.14 -0.21 -0.14 -0.01 0.34 -0.27 -0.11 -0.09 -0.18 0-0.24 -0.32 -0.05 -0.22 0.36 -0.27 -0.33 -0.02 -0.25 0.090.14 0.21 0.21 0.11 0.2 -0.12 0.08 0.25 0.05 0.17
0
catchability and standard error of ages with catchabilityent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-7.3098 -5.9454 -5.2765 -5.1626 -5.1626 -5.1626 -5.1626 -5.16260.2747 0.1727 0.1461 0.1683 0.1814 0.2252 0.2931 0.1984
n statistics :
q dependent on year class strength
Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
-0.05 -26.301 12.54 0.13 20 0.14 -11.74
q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
0.24 -5.797 11.05 0.24 20 0.14 -7.310.42 -3.14 9.38 0.33 20 0.13 -5.950.42 -2.536 8.69 0.25 20 0.12 -5.280.34 -4.029 8.5 0.3 20 0.11 -5.160.32 -4.22 7.91 0.29 20 0.1 -5.250.26 -5.571 7.45 0.27 20 0.1 -5.270.37 -4.803 6.53 0.43 20 0.15 -5.310.68 -5.13 5.42 0.92 20 0.08 -5.03
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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 191589 0.3 0 0 1 1 0.001
P shrinka 201226 0.15 0 0.001
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
191589 0.3 0 1 0 0.001
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 129998 0.212 0.021 0.1 2 1 0.056
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
129998 0.21 0.02 2 0.101 0.056
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 97864 0.174 0.202 1.17 3 1 0.186
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
97864 0.17 0.2 3 1.165 0.186
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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 31070 0.152 0.048 0.32 4 1 0.466
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
31070 0.15 0.05 4 0.317 0.466
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12769 0.146 0.052 0.36 5 1 0.481
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
12769 0.15 0.05 5 0.357 0.481
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4280 0.156 0.049 0.32 6 1 0.448
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
4280 0.16 0.05 6 0.316 0.448
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1515 0.162 0.026 0.16 7 1 0.499
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Functional Unit 12 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
1515 0.16 0.03 7 0.161 0.499
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 617 0.164 0.043 0.26 8 1 0.544
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
617 0.16 0.04 8 0.264 0.544
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 265 0.162 0.061 0.37 9 1 0.589
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
265 0.16 0.06 9 0.375 0.589
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 17:46
Extended Survivors Analysis
females INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00100
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2
109 0.0016 0.0612 0.0667 0.0809 0.1043 0.1161 0.1079 0.1068 0.1048 0.1006
Iteration 30 0.0016 0.0612 0.0667 0.0809 0.1042 0.116 0.1078 0.1067 0.1047 0.1005
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.1226 0.1013 0.1105 Iteration 30 0.1225 0.1012 0.1103
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.0022 0.094 0.044 0.069 0.067 0.07 0.112 0.073 0.063 0.162 0.0613 0.087 0.066 0.094 0.075 0.07 0.072 0.06 0.056 0.089 0.0674 0.125 0.091 0.144 0.106 0.117 0.107 0.076 0.091 0.143 0.0815 0.186 0.104 0.154 0.138 0.17 0.121 0.099 0.126 0.188 0.1046 0.186 0.1 0.139 0.15 0.187 0.113 0.118 0.153 0.183 0.1167 0.203 0.108 0.126 0.164 0.171 0.126 0.129 0.173 0.181 0.1088 0.223 0.129 0.1 0.185 0.166 0.127 0.161 0.18 0.169 0.1079 0.19 0.123 0.084 0.164 0.161 0.127 0.186 0.189 0.128 0.105
10 0.148 0.125 0.089 0.156 0.12 0.109 0.181 0.184 0.116 0.111 0.195 0.146 0.11 0.222 0.152 0.112 0.232 0.223 0.122 0.12312 0.183 0.141 0.094 0.21 0.139 0.111 0.18 0.226 0.1 0.10113 0.158 0.134 0.119 0.2 0.152 0.145 0.218 0.212 0.117 0.11
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 3.45E+05 2.75E+05 2.11E+05 1.50E+05 9.89E+04 6.69E+04 3.98E+04 2.25E+04 1.37E+04 8.77E+031994 3.12E+05 2.55E+05 2.05E+05 1.58E+05 1.08E+05 6.73E+04 4.55E+04 2.66E+04 1.47E+04 9.26E+031995 2.85E+05 2.31E+05 2.00E+05 1.57E+05 1.18E+05 7.99E+04 4.98E+04 3.34E+04 1.91E+04 1.07E+041996 2.66E+05 2.11E+05 1.76E+05 1.49E+05 1.11E+05 8.31E+04 5.69E+04 3.60E+04 2.48E+04 1.44E+041997 2.60E+05 1.97E+05 1.61E+05 1.34E+05 1.10E+05 7.93E+04 5.86E+04 3.96E+04 2.45E+04 1.72E+041998 2.93E+05 1.92E+05 1.50E+05 1.23E+05 9.75E+04 7.58E+04 5.38E+04 4.04E+04 2.74E+04 1.71E+041999 3.04E+05 2.16E+05 1.41E+05 1.14E+05 9.07E+04 7.07E+04 5.54E+04 3.89E+04 2.91E+04 1.98E+042000 2.54E+05 2.25E+05 1.65E+05 1.09E+05 8.68E+04 6.73E+04 5.14E+04 3.99E+04 2.71E+04 1.98E+042001 2.77E+05 1.88E+05 1.73E+05 1.28E+05 8.12E+04 6.27E+04 4.73E+04 3.54E+04 2.73E+04 1.84E+042002 2.87E+05 2.05E+05 1.31E+05 1.29E+05 9.05E+04 5.51E+04 4.27E+04 3.23E+04 2.45E+04 1.96E+04
10
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 2.12E+05 1.58E+05 1.00E+05 9.78E+04 6.68E+04 4.02E+04 3.14E+04 2.38E+04 1.81E+04
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
2.98E+05 2.22E+05 1.69E+05 1.30E+05 9.42E+04 6.57E+04 4.55E+04 3.08E+04 2.04E+04 1.35E+04
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1206 0.1268 0.1491 0.1317 0.1438 0.1748 0.2122 0.2692 0.3308 0.3666
AGE YEAR 11 12 13
1993 5.18E+03 3.40E+03 2.79E+031994 6.19E+03 3.49E+03 2.32E+031995 6.69E+03 4.38E+03 2.48E+031996 7.98E+03 4.91E+03 3.26E+031997 1.01E+04 5.23E+03 3.25E+031998 1.25E+04 7.10E+03 3.73E+031999 1.25E+04 9.15E+03 5.20E+032000 1.35E+04 8.13E+03 6.26E+032001 1.35E+04 8.85E+03 5.31E+032002 1.34E+04 9.77E+03 6.56E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
1.46E+04 9.71E+03 7.23E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
8.96E+03 5.76E+03 3.70E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.3769 0.3894 0.38631
Log catchability residuals.
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99
Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.04 0.04 0 0.02 -0.09 -0.16 -0.17 -0.31 0.17 -0.012 -0.35 -0.68 0.12 0.05 -0.02 0.11 -0.15 -0.52 0.06 0.153 0.23 0.75 0.24 0.32 -0.05 -0.17 0.14 0.23 -0.23 -0.34 0.29 0.4 0.24 0.48 -0.31 -0.31 0.3 0.2 -0.23 -0.075 -0.15 0.06 0.16 0.43 -0.4 -0.13 0.38 0.3 -0.35 0.076 0 -0.18 0.04 0.33 -0.48 0.01 0.38 0.49 -0.4 0.267 0.04 -0.05 -0.07 0.32 -0.47 0.22 0.58 0.56 -0.43 0.438 0.02 -0.11 0.03 0.2 -0.52 0.34 0.66 0.62 -0.39 0.489 -0.19 -0.47 -0.08 -0.17 -0.66 0.2 0.29 0.36 -0.14 0.35
10 0.07 -0.24 -0.35 -0.43 -0.89 0.04 0.02 0.07 -0.02 0.1711 -0.02 0.18 0.24 -0.38 -0.85 0.36 0.07 0.07 0.16 0.2812 -0.53 -0.07 0.22 -0.33 -1.07 0.28 0.24 -0.13 0.37 -0.0313 -0.1 -0.11 0.04 -0.17 -0.5 0.43 0.27 0.12 0.09 -0.02
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0.24 0.32 0.23 0.02 0.11 -0.1 -0.28 0.02 -0.15 -0.092 -0.51 0.49 -0.05 0.19 0.35 -0.17 0.09 0.12 -0.42 0.043 0.07 -0.35 0.32 0.07 -0.09 0.07 -0.19 -0.23 0.24 0.254 0.05 -0.42 0.36 0.02 0.04 0.08 -0.35 -0.13 0.33 0.055 0.18 -0.54 0.16 0.02 0.15 -0.05 -0.34 -0.07 0.34 0.046 0.12 -0.65 0 0.04 0.18 -0.19 -0.24 0.06 0.25 0.097 0.2 -0.58 -0.1 0.13 0.09 -0.08 -0.14 0.19 0.23 0.018 0.3 -0.4 -0.33 0.25 0.06 -0.07 0.08 0.22 0.17 09 0.13 -0.44 -0.51 0.13 0.03 -0.08 0.22 0.27 -0.11 -0.02
10 -0.11 -0.43 -0.45 0.07 -0.27 -0.23 0.19 0.25 -0.21 -0.0611 0.16 -0.27 -0.24 0.43 -0.03 -0.2 0.44 0.44 -0.16 0.1412 0.1 -0.31 -0.39 0.38 -0.12 -0.21 0.19 0.45 -0.35 -0.0513 -0.05 -0.36 -0.16 0.32 -0.03 0.06 0.38 0.39 -0.2 0.04
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Mean Log q -7.4068 -7.0194 -6.759 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 -6.6937 S.E(Log q) 0.2278 0.2476 0.2663 0.2887 0.3054 0.3181 0.2764 0.2708 0.3061 0.3218
Age 13 Mean Log q -6.6937 S.E(Log q) 0.252
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 -0.24 -2.558 12.89 0.3 20 0.2 -11.462 -0.93 -2.672 16.93 0.16 20 0.31 -7.37
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 1.26 -0.436 6.19 0.22 20 0.3 -7.414 0.82 0.361 7.85 0.3 20 0.21 -7.025 1.21 -0.303 5.76 0.17 20 0.34 -6.766 1.19 -0.305 5.87 0.21 20 0.36 -6.697 1.27 -0.483 5.54 0.24 20 0.4 -6.658 1.19 -0.445 5.91 0.36 20 0.38 -6.629 0.92 0.316 6.94 0.63 20 0.27 -6.69
10 0.86 0.803 7.18 0.75 20 0.22 -6.7911 0.91 0.424 6.85 0.67 20 0.28 -6.6112 0.9 0.411 6.9 0.65 20 0.3 -6.7113 0.76 1.842 7.02 0.85 20 0.17 -6.641
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet
12
E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 193542 0.3 0 0 1 0.144 0.002
P shrinkage m 222225 0.13 0.805 0.002
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. F shrinkage m 131256 0.5 0.052 0.003
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
212002 0.11 0.11 3 0.946 0.002
1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 148842 0.218 0.095 0.44 2 0.287 0.065
P shrinkage m 168621 0.15 0.655 0.057
F shrinkage m 98362 0.5 0.058 0.096
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
157662 0.12 0.09 4 0.729 0.061
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 100782 0.184 0.184 1 3 0.863 0.066
F shrinkage m 95587 0.5 0.137 0.07
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
100057 0.17 0.14 4 0.812 0.067
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 101060 0.153 0.109 0.71 4 0.9 0.078
F shrinkage m 72641 0.5 0.1 0.107
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
97779 0.15 0.1 5 0.709 0.081
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 68941 0.137 0.094 0.69 5 0.911 0.101
F shrinkage m 48218 0.5 0.089 0.142
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
66784 0.13 0.09 6 0.707 0.104
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 41228 0.127 0.086 0.67 6 0.916 0.113
F shrinkage m 30187 0.5 0.084 0.151
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
40161 0.12 0.08 7 0.675 0.116
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 32494 0.119 0.082 0.69 7 0.922 0.104
F shrinkage m 21092 0.5 0.078 0.157
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
31422 0.12 0.09 8 0.74 0.108
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 24669 0.114 0.069 0.6 8 0.924 0.103
F shrinkage m 15283 0.5 0.076 0.161
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
23786 0.11 0.08 9 0.691 0.107
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 18715 0.11 0.052 0.48 9 0.927 0.101
F shrinkage m 11563 0.5 0.073 0.159
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
18069 0.11 0.06 10 0.594 0.105
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 14972 0.107 0.062 0.57 10 0.93 0.098
F shrinkage m 10035 0.5 0.07 0.143
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
14561 0.11 0.07 11 0.619 0.1
Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1991
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 9971 0.106 0.068 0.65 11 0.928 0.119
F shrinkage m 6864 0.5 0.072 0.169
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
9708 0.1 0.07 12 0.665 0.123
1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1990
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 7479 0.105 0.052 0.5 12 0.928 0.098
F shrinkage m 4696 0.5 0.072 0.152
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
7233 0.1 0.06 13 0.58 0.101
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Function Unit 12 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1989
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4802 0.104 0.074 0.71 13 0.929 0.11
F shrinkage m 4942 0.5 0.071 0.107
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
4811 0.1 0.07 14 0.665 0.11
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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 12:53
Extended Survivors Analysis
males INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 10.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 9 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 4
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 8
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .800
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 23 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0.01 0.025 0.003 0.003 0.034 0.031 0.006 0.008 0.0222 0.124 0.149 0.344 0.287 0.235 0.567 0.439 0.317 0.311 0.3843 0.524 0.314 0.693 0.882 0.687 1.032 0.896 1.026 0.822 0.9374 1.019 0.649 0.807 1.17 1.127 1.363 0.941 1.207 0.958 0.7735 0.982 0.841 0.849 0.8 1.242 1.24 0.812 0.873 0.784 0.666 0.765 0.64 0.964 0.382 1.204 0.847 0.826 0.739 0.65 0.5577 0.561 0.749 0.815 0.415 1.015 0.517 0.797 0.615 0.5 0.4798 0.548 0.392 1.059 0.29 1.391 0.333 0.766 0.537 0.428 0.4979 0.864 0.629 0.742 0.582 0.769 0.67 0.628 0.562 0.47 0.431
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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 2.17E+05 8.47E+04 5.45E+04 3.05E+04 1.23E+04 4.27E+03 2.18E+03 9.37E+02 4.04E+021994 2.51E+05 1.61E+05 5.54E+04 2.39E+04 8.16E+03 3.43E+03 1.47E+03 9.21E+02 4.02E+021995 1.95E+05 1.84E+05 1.03E+05 3.00E+04 9.24E+03 2.61E+03 1.34E+03 5.16E+02 4.61E+021996 2.31E+05 1.41E+05 9.65E+04 3.80E+04 9.92E+03 2.93E+03 7.37E+02 4.39E+02 1.32E+021997 3.24E+05 1.70E+05 7.84E+04 2.96E+04 8.73E+03 3.30E+03 1.48E+03 3.60E+02 2.43E+021998 2.91E+05 2.39E+05 9.98E+04 2.92E+04 7.10E+03 1.87E+03 7.34E+02 3.98E+02 6.64E+011999 2.38E+05 2.08E+05 1.01E+05 2.63E+04 5.54E+03 1.52E+03 5.93E+02 3.24E+02 2.11E+022000 2.60E+05 1.71E+05 9.94E+04 3.04E+04 7.61E+03 1.82E+03 4.94E+02 1.98E+02 1.12E+022001 2.47E+05 1.92E+05 9.22E+04 2.64E+04 6.74E+03 2.35E+03 6.45E+02 1.98E+02 8.58E+012002 2.42E+05 1.82E+05 1.04E+05 3.00E+04 7.51E+03 2.28E+03 9.10E+02 2.90E+02 9.56E+01
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.75E+05 9.16E+04 3.02E+04 1.03E+04 2.87E+03 9.68E+02 4.18E+02 1.31E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
2.20E+05 1.57E+05 8.49E+04 3.00E+04 8.67E+03 2.81E+03 1.07E+03 4.50E+02 1.94E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.2885 0.3031 0.233 0.1279 0.2579 0.3877 0.5323 0.5879 0.71731
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
1 0.21 0.32 0.4 0.58 0.49 0.34 -0.09 0.37 0.4 -0.632 0.08 -0.03 0 -0.04 0.15 0.26 -0.19 -0.14 0.01 0.093 0.01 -0.05 -0.06 -0.15 -0.09 0.07 -0.1 -0.08 -0.14 -0.054 -0.14 -0.43 -0.3 -0.37 -0.55 -0.1 -0.27 -0.38 -0.39 -0.355 0.04 -0.43 -0.59 -0.5 -0.82 0.19 -0.01 -0.37 -0.72 -0.36 -0.05 -0.16 -0.67 -0.52 -1.16 0.18 0.24 -0.28 -0.91 -0.377 0.09 -0.3 -0.14 -0.2 -1.21 0.11 0.4 -0.05 -0.76 -0.498 -0.02 -0.02 -0.38 0.38 -1.14 -0.01 0.38 0.15 0.04 -0.699 0.25 -0.01 -0.12 0.04 -0.36 0.31 0.31 0.03 -0.1 -0.05
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -2.67 0.18 0.73 -0.57 -0.68 0.66 0.84 -0.16 0.08 0.752 -0.06 -0.22 0 0.03 -0.11 0 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.173 0.08 -0.01 -0.13 -0.04 0.04 -0.01 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.14 -0.09 -0.22 -0.14 0.12 0.21 0.25 0.11 0.32 0.22 0.125 -0.02 0.13 0.02 -0.14 0.41 0.26 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.076 -0.05 0.08 0.35 -0.66 0.59 0.1 0.3 0.16 0.15 0.117 -0.23 0.36 0.32 -0.45 0.56 -0.26 0.4 0.11 0.02 0.098 -0.19 -0.21 0.64 -0.74 0.93 -0.63 0.42 0.04 -0.06 0.199 0.26 0.25 0.29 -0.05 0.35 0.06 0.23 0.09 0.03 0.05
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -5.0289 -5.1345 -5.3444 -5.4747 -5.5402 -5.5402 S.E(Log q) 0.2533 0.288 0.4223 0.4039 0.5225 0.2046
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.58 0.43 10.85 0.09 20 0.94 -9.792 0.42 4.875 9.54 0.88 20 0.12 -6.223 0.39 5.712 8.97 0.9 20 0.08 -5.29
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
4 1.47 -0.517 2.56 0.11 20 0.38 -5.035 2.07 -1.654 0.94 0.19 20 0.55 -5.136 1.77 -1.378 3.35 0.24 20 0.72 -5.347 1.11 -0.417 5.31 0.59 20 0.47 -5.478 1.24 -0.704 5.4 0.46 20 0.66 -5.549 0.89 2.197 5.4 0.97 20 0.12 -5.42
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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 369715 1.008 0 0 1 0.072 0.011
P shrinka 157007 0.3 0.812 0.025
F shrinka 237896 0.8 0.117 0.017
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
175238 0.27 0.56 3 2.037 0.022
1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 108164 0.287 0.026 0.09 2 0.293 0.334
P shrinka 84915 0.23 0.652 0.409
F shrinka 93456 0.8 0.055 0.378
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
91636 0.18 0.11 4 0.641 0.384
Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 31795 0.21 0.042 0.2 3 0.111 0.906
P shrinka 29967 0.13 0.867 0.942
F shrinka 31713 0.8 0.022 0.908
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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
30203 0.11 0.03 5 0.256 0.937
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 11366 0.192 0.055 0.29 4 0.854 0.72
F shrinka 5630 0.8 0.146 1.14
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
10259 0.2 0.14 5 0.702 0.773
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3191 0.201 0.037 0.18 5 0.856 0.611
F shrinka 1544 0.8 0.144 1.008
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
2874 0.21 0.13 6 0.613 0.66
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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1104 0.218 0.038 0.17 6 0.824 0.503
F shrinka 522 0.8 0.176 0.867
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
968 0.23 0.13 7 0.578 0.557
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 462 0.225 0.021 0.09 7 0.83 0.442
F shrinka 254 0.8 0.17 0.699
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
418 0.23 0.1 8 0.412 0.479
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 146 0.237 0.03 0.13 8 0.802 0.454
F shrinka 83 0.8 0.198 0.701
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
131 0.25 0.09 9 0.376 0.497
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Functional Unit 13 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 49 0.217 0.028 0.13 9 0.875 0.41
F shrinkage mean 30 0.8 0.125 0.602
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
46 0.21 0.06 10 0.292 0.431
11
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data. Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 16:20
Extended Survivors Analysis
females INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 22 years. 1981 to 2002. Ages 1 to 14.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1981 2002 1 13 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 12
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00239
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2
109 0.0265 0.4565 0.152 0.1293 0.1122 0.0804 0.0834 0.0924 0.104 0.1087
Iteration 30 0.0264 0.4564 0.1519 0.1293 0.1122 0.0803 0.0833 0.0923 0.1038 0.1085
Age 11 12 13 Iteration 29 0.1432 0.2331 0.2437 Iteration 30 0.1429 0.2327 0.2431
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0.005 0.04 0.003 0.004 0.042 0.036 0.002 0.009 0.0262 0.084 0.191 0.466 0.286 0.247 0.587 0.394 0.166 0.269 0.4563 0.087 0.078 0.224 0.223 0.112 0.256 0.213 0.152 0.149 0.1524 0.134 0.102 0.224 0.285 0.153 0.281 0.207 0.176 0.165 0.1295 0.199 0.139 0.187 0.308 0.216 0.322 0.187 0.181 0.212 0.1126 0.239 0.201 0.191 0.27 0.252 0.323 0.185 0.179 0.174 0.087 0.229 0.262 0.234 0.217 0.28 0.379 0.202 0.194 0.157 0.0838 0.257 0.275 0.292 0.246 0.26 0.602 0.256 0.23 0.151 0.0929 0.272 0.319 0.314 0.326 0.291 0.897 0.378 0.266 0.186 0.104
10 0.281 0.26 0.303 0.349 0.22 0.643 0.34 0.319 0.23 0.10911 0.372 0.284 0.296 0.461 0.264 0.714 0.3 0.404 0.329 0.14312 0.501 0.377 0.39 0.507 0.441 0.678 0.376 0.391 0.386 0.23313 0.769 0.465 0.475 0.551 0.449 0.453 0.33 0.345 0.306 0.243
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 1.76E+05 1.03E+05 7.17E+04 5.79E+04 4.32E+04 3.15E+04 2.37E+04 1.62E+04 1.19E+04 7.64E+031994 2.29E+05 1.30E+05 7.75E+04 5.38E+04 4.14E+04 2.90E+04 2.03E+04 1.55E+04 1.02E+04 7.44E+031995 1.83E+05 1.69E+05 8.81E+04 5.87E+04 3.98E+04 2.95E+04 1.94E+04 1.28E+04 9.61E+03 6.09E+031996 1.94E+05 1.30E+05 8.68E+04 5.77E+04 3.84E+04 2.70E+04 2.00E+04 1.26E+04 7.83E+03 5.75E+031997 2.77E+05 1.43E+05 7.99E+04 5.68E+04 3.55E+04 2.31E+04 1.69E+04 1.32E+04 8.04E+03 4.62E+031998 2.79E+05 2.04E+05 9.16E+04 5.85E+04 3.99E+04 2.34E+04 1.47E+04 1.04E+04 8.30E+03 4.92E+031999 2.45E+05 1.98E+05 9.29E+04 5.81E+04 3.62E+04 2.37E+04 1.39E+04 8.24E+03 4.68E+03 2.77E+032000 2.42E+05 1.75E+05 1.09E+05 6.15E+04 3.87E+04 2.46E+04 1.61E+04 9.28E+03 5.22E+03 2.63E+032001 2.43E+05 1.79E+05 1.21E+05 7.70E+04 4.22E+04 2.64E+04 1.68E+04 1.09E+04 6.04E+03 3.28E+032002 2.20E+05 1.78E+05 1.12E+05 8.56E+04 5.34E+04 2.79E+04 1.82E+04 1.18E+04 7.65E+03 4.11E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.59E+05 9.26E+04 7.89E+04 6.16E+04 3.91E+04 2.11E+04 1.37E+04 8.80E+03 5.66E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
2.08E+05 1.49E+05 9.01E+04 6.20E+04 4.14E+04 2.75E+04 1.85E+04 1.24E+04 8.04E+03 4.88E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.2289 0.2379 0.1612 0.1344 0.1111 0.1255 0.1717 0.2191 0.2879 0.3683
10
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 11 12 13
1993 4.58E+03 2.85E+03 1.36E+031994 4.73E+03 2.59E+03 1.41E+031995 4.70E+03 2.91E+03 1.45E+031996 3.68E+03 2.86E+03 1.61E+031997 3.32E+03 1.90E+03 1.41E+031998 3.04E+03 2.09E+03 1.00E+031999 2.12E+03 1.22E+03 8.68E+022000 1.62E+03 1.29E+03 6.85E+022001 1.57E+03 8.83E+02 7.12E+022002 2.13E+03 9.22E+02 4.92E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
3.02E+03 1.52E+03 6.00E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
3.06E+03 1.84E+03 1.04E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.416 0.4564 0.39611
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1981 19821 99.99 99.992 99.99 99.993 99.99 99.994 99.99 99.995 99.99 99.996 99.99 99.997 99.99 99.998 99.99 99.999 99.99 99.99
10 99.99 99.9911 99.99 99.9912 99.99 99.9913 99.99 99.99
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
1 0.2 0.21 0.34 0.54 0.34 0.49 0.32 0.56 0.5 -0.52 -0.02 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.06 -0.02 0.07 0.08 -0.053 0.38 0.22 0.39 0.12 -0.15 -0.13 -1.13 -0.42 -0.27 -0.784 0.33 -0.01 0.2 -0.2 -0.41 -0.01 -0.88 -0.16 -0.38 -0.565 0.1 -0.09 0.06 -0.4 -0.59 -0.05 -0.6 -0.28 -0.46 -0.546 0.02 -0.53 -0.13 -0.35 -0.59 -0.01 0 -0.22 -0.53 -0.757 0.23 -0.97 -0.37 -0.35 -0.56 -0.27 0.11 0.05 -0.71 -0.768 0.35 -1.06 -0.53 -0.53 -0.64 -0.34 0.14 0.15 -0.65 -0.959 0.35 -0.85 -0.53 -0.62 -0.97 -0.27 0.21 0.12 -0.51 -1.08
10 0.52 -0.88 -0.25 -0.66 -0.96 -0.3 0.17 0.26 -0.43 -0.8611 0.56 -0.77 -0.15 -0.38 -0.84 -0.33 -0.09 0.53 -0.31 -0.812 0.72 -0.64 -0.04 -0.17 -0.55 -0.16 -0.14 0.48 -0.06 -0.5413 0 -0.04 0.18 0.05 0.1 0.37 0.28 0.25 -0.12 -0.02
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -1.52 -0.18 0.64 -0.29 -0.38 0.33 0.44 -0.52 0.02 0.472 -0.16 0.03 0.1 0.09 0.02 0 -0.03 -0.23 -0.06 0.143 -0.67 -0.46 0.46 0.35 -0.21 0.46 0.51 0.14 0.24 0.374 -0.39 -0.36 0.3 0.44 -0.06 0.4 0.33 0.13 0.19 0.055 -0.09 -0.14 0.02 0.42 0.19 0.44 0.13 0.06 0.34 -0.196 0.09 0.22 0.05 0.29 0.34 0.44 0.12 0.05 0.14 -0.527 -0.01 0.43 0.2 0.02 0.4 0.55 0.15 0.07 -0.01 -0.548 -0.02 0.36 0.29 0.01 0.2 0.88 0.26 0.12 -0.18 -0.579 -0.15 0.31 0.17 0.1 0.12 1.08 0.45 0.07 -0.17 -0.64
10 -0.11 0.12 0.15 0.18 -0.15 0.76 0.36 0.26 0.06 -0.5811 -0.02 0.02 -0.06 0.27 -0.15 0.68 0.05 0.31 0.23 -0.4912 0.02 0.04 -0.05 0.1 0.09 0.37 0.01 0.01 0.12 -0.2713 0.44 0.25 0.14 0.18 0.11 -0.03 -0.12 -0.11 -0.11 -0.23
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Mean Log -6.8881 -6.7321 -6.6356 -6.6345 -6.581 -6.4544 -6.2622 -6.2756 -6.0887 -5.823 S.E(Log q
12
) 0.4819 0.3601 0.3241 0.355 0.3979 0.4695 0.5347 0.4383 0.3989 0.2399
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 13 Mean Log -5.823 S.E(Log q) 0.2035
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
1 0.34 0.827 11.42 0.13 20 0.61 -9.782 0.32 4.848 10.14 0.83 20 0.11 -6.27
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 0.34 2.64 9.86 0.62 20 0.13 -6.894 0.71 0.485 7.97 0.22 20 0.27 -6.735 -1.85 -1.974 18.02 0.05 20 0.53 -6.646 -1.5 -2.31 15.61 0.08 20 0.45 -6.637 -22.91 -1.6 84.23 0 20 8.54 -6.588 3.86 -1.17 -2.06 0.02 20 1.78 -6.459 1.74 -0.747 4.24 0.09 20 0.95 -6.26
10 1.46 -0.878 5.25 0.26 20 0.65 -6.2811 1.26 -0.689 5.59 0.42 20 0.51 -6.0912 0.92 0.542 5.96 0.82 20 0.23 -5.8213 0.72 4.02 6.1 0.95 20 0.09 -5.771
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 254482 0.654 0 0 1 0.114 0.017
P shrinka 149274 0.24 0.886 0.028
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
158634 0.22 0.5 2 2.246 0.026
1 Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 104601 0.271 0.048 0.18 2 0.182 0.413
P shrinka 90146 0.16 0.818 0.466
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
92624 0.14 0.1 3 0.683 0.456
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 78883 0.241 0.192 0.8 3 1 0.152
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
78883 0.24 0.19 3 0.798 0.152
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 61603 0.204 0.125 0.61 4 1 0.129
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
61603 0.2 0.13 4 0.613 0.129
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 39118 0.181 0.085 0.47 5 1 0.112
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
39118 0.18 0.09 5 0.47 0.112
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 21126 0.17 0.168 0.99 6 1 0.08
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
21126 0.17 0.17 6 0.985 0.08
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 13693 0.158 0.126 0.8 7 1 0.083
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
13693 0.16 0.13 7 0.801 0.083
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 8796 0.154 0.108 0.7 8 1 0.092
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
8796 0.15 0.11 8 0.7 0.092
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5656 0.157 0.11 0.7 9 1 0.104
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
5656 0.16 0.11 9 0.701 0.104
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 3022 0.161 0.128 0.79 10 1 0.108
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
3022 0.16 0.13 10 0.794 0.109
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Functional Unit 13 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1991
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1516 0.167 0.116 0.69 11 1 0.143
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1516 0.17 0.12 11 0.692 0.143
1 Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1990
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 600 0.173 0.098 0.57 12 1 0.232
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
600 0.17 0.1 12 0.567 0.233
Age 13 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 12
Year class = 1989
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 316 0.166 0.077 0.46 13 1 0.243
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
316 0.17 0.08 13 0.461 0.243
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Management Area J Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 17:52
Extended Survivors Analysis
FU14 IRISH SEA MALESINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 11 years. 1992 to 2002. Ages 2 to 10.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1992 2002 2 9 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 22 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0.069 0.01 0.064 0.052 0.041 0.085 0.102 0.173 0.056 0.0633 0.346 0.224 0.39 0.283 0.392 0.36 0.349 0.367 0.31 0.3914 0.575 0.4 0.609 0.454 0.656 0.413 0.693 0.545 0.465 0.5685 0.96 0.604 0.545 0.619 0.613 0.48 0.822 0.599 0.494 0.6986 1.045 0.611 0.595 0.465 0.488 0.278 0.808 0.616 0.563 0.7267 0.801 0.74 0.85 0.553 0.701 0.187 1.098 0.658 0.564 0.6458 1.198 0.532 1.649 0.577 1.443 0.137 1.002 0.78 0.531 0.5789 0.789 0.553 0.855 0.503 0.517 0.438 0.949 0.705 0.587 0.639
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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 2.93E+04 2.03E+04 1.01E+04 4.68E+03 1.52E+03 6.00E+02 1.50E+02 4.75E+011994 3.15E+04 2.03E+04 1.07E+04 4.19E+03 1.33E+03 3.97E+02 2.00E+02 3.36E+011995 3.35E+04 2.31E+04 1.20E+04 5.29E+03 1.70E+03 5.33E+02 1.40E+02 8.69E+011996 3.07E+04 2.33E+04 1.16E+04 4.83E+03 2.27E+03 6.94E+02 1.69E+02 2.00E+011997 3.53E+04 2.16E+04 1.30E+04 5.45E+03 1.93E+03 1.06E+03 2.96E+02 7.02E+011998 3.46E+04 2.51E+04 1.08E+04 4.99E+03 2.18E+03 8.76E+02 3.89E+02 5.18E+011999 4.29E+04 2.35E+04 1.30E+04 5.30E+03 2.29E+03 1.23E+03 5.39E+02 2.51E+022000 4.45E+04 2.87E+04 1.23E+04 4.80E+03 1.73E+03 7.56E+02 3.03E+02 1.46E+022001 3.64E+04 2.77E+04 1.47E+04 5.28E+03 1.95E+03 6.91E+02 2.90E+02 1.03E+022002 3.41E+04 2.55E+04 1.51E+04 6.86E+03 2.39E+03 8.25E+02 2.91E+02 1.26E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 2.37E+04 1.28E+04 6.32E+03 2.53E+03 8.56E+02 3.20E+02 1.21E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
3.48E+04 2.37E+04 1.21E+04 4.97E+03 1.85E+03 6.98E+02 2.43E+02 6.90E+01
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1396 0.1206 0.1428 0.1904 0.2336 0.4012 0.5 0.83271
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 19922 0.133 0.244 -0.145 -0.426 -0.67 -0.518 -0.59 0
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 0.11 -0.38 -0.02 0.09 -0.08 0.17 -0.06 0.1 -0.04 03 -0.18 -0.32 -0.14 -0.06 0.24 0.32 -0.16 0.05 -0.08 0.044 -0.1 -0.16 -0.11 -0.01 0.34 0.05 0.1 0.03 -0.09 05 0.26 0.11 -0.36 0.16 0.13 0.05 0.13 -0.02 -0.17 0.066 0.35 0.12 -0.28 -0.12 -0.1 -0.49 0.11 0.01 -0.04 0.097 0.09 0.31 0.07 0.05 0.26 -0.89 0.41 0.07 -0.04 -0.028 0.48 -0.02 0.72 0.09 0.96 -1.19 0.32 0.24 -0.1 -0.139 0.07 0.02 0.08 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 0.27 0.14 0 -0.03
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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -4.3549 -3.9387 -3.7968 -3.7968 -3.7968 -3.7968 -3.7968 S.E(Log q) 0.2001 0.1421 0.2073 0.2783 0.3766 0.6037 0.1092
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
2 0.27 1.951 9.29 0.47 11 0.16 -6.09 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 0.76 0.558 5.75 0.4 11 0.16 -4.354 0.76 0.969 5.27 0.66 11 0.11 -3.945 0.73 1.017 5.07 0.64 11 0.15 -3.86 0.85 0.433 4.41 0.52 11 0.24 -3.887 0.84 0.586 4.25 0.63 11 0.33 -3.818 1.16 -0.334 3.43 0.34 11 0.73 -3.729 0.93 2.311 3.79 0.99 11 0.08 -3.761
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 23779 0.3 0 0 1 0.132 0.063
P shrinka 23703 0.12 0.868 0.063
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
23713 0.11 0 2 0.027 0.063
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12778 0.212 0.042 0.2 2 1 0.391
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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
12778 0.21 0.04 2 0.199 0.391
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6322 0.177 0.046 0.26 3 1 0.568
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
6322 0.18 0.05 3 0.261 0.568
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2529 0.161 0.038 0.24 4 1 0.698
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2529 0.16 0.04 4 0.237 0.698
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 856 0.156 0.064 0.41 5 1 0.726
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
856 0.16 0.06 5 0.408 0.726
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Functional Unit 14 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 320 0.169 0.04 0.24 6 1 0.645
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
320 0.17 0.04 6 0.239 0.645
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 121 0.185 0.038 0.21 7 1 0.578
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
121 0.18 0.04 7 0.208 0.578
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 49 0.199 0.029 0.15 8 1 0.639
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
49 0.2 0.03 8 0.148 0.639
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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 17:49
Extended Survivors Analysis
FU14 IRISH SEA FEMALINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 11 years. 1992 to 2002. Ages 2 to 11.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1992 2002 2 10 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 7
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00063
Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0233 0.1883 0.3405 0.3365 0.4247 0.543 0.4104 0.3821 0.5504 Iteration 30 0.0233 0.1883 0.3405 0.3365 0.4247 0.5429 0.4103 0.3819 0.5503
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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0.047 0.003 0.019 0.027 0.021 0.028 0.075 0.195 0.053 0.0233 0.248 0.061 0.175 0.2 0.146 0.151 0.252 0.374 0.24 0.1884 0.359 0.181 0.302 0.298 0.307 0.21 0.302 0.379 0.406 0.345 0.371 0.384 0.379 0.407 0.537 0.265 0.332 0.557 0.413 0.3366 0.355 0.441 0.498 0.499 0.45 0.338 0.53 0.582 0.433 0.4257 0.457 0.424 0.624 0.896 0.515 0.269 0.704 0.706 0.643 0.5438 0.513 0.544 0.779 1.633 0.724 0.089 0.286 0.59 0.477 0.419 0.485 0.48 0.775 0.771 2.229 0.123 0.316 0.531 0.855 0.382
10 0.653 0.505 0.748 0.497 0.492 0.4 0.685 0.707 0.639 0.55
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1993 3.14E+04 2.85E+04 1.84E+04 1.13E+04 7.35E+03 4.31E+03 2.73E+03 2.07E+03 1.01E+031994 3.93E+04 2.22E+04 1.82E+04 1.05E+04 6.38E+03 4.22E+03 2.24E+03 1.34E+03 1.04E+031995 4.04E+04 2.90E+04 1.71E+04 1.24E+04 5.86E+03 3.36E+03 2.26E+03 1.06E+03 6.77E+021996 4.04E+04 2.93E+04 2.00E+04 1.03E+04 6.98E+03 2.92E+03 1.47E+03 8.50E+02 4.01E+021997 3.99E+04 2.91E+04 1.97E+04 1.21E+04 5.64E+03 3.47E+03 9.74E+02 2.36E+02 3.22E+021998 3.89E+04 2.89E+04 2.06E+04 1.18E+04 5.80E+03 2.94E+03 1.70E+03 3.87E+02 2.08E+011999 4.08E+04 2.80E+04 2.04E+04 1.37E+04 7.44E+03 3.39E+03 1.84E+03 1.27E+03 2.80E+022000 2.99E+04 2.80E+04 1.78E+04 1.23E+04 8.03E+03 3.59E+03 1.37E+03 1.13E+03 7.58E+022001 3.18E+04 1.82E+04 1.58E+04 9.99E+03 5.77E+03 3.67E+03 1.45E+03 6.23E+02 5.45E+022002 3.70E+04 2.23E+04 1.18E+04 8.61E+03 5.41E+03 3.07E+03 1.58E+03 7.37E+02 2.17E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 2.68E+04 1.52E+04 6.84E+03 5.04E+03 2.90E+03 1.46E+03 8.58E+02 4.12E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
3.69E+04 2.61E+04 1.78E+04 1.13E+04 6.47E+03 3.53E+03 1.76E+03 8.60E+02 3.87E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1178 0.162 0.1685 0.137 0.1438 0.1595 0.3569 0.6648 1.169
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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 19922 -0.053 0.074 0.165 -0.056 -0.137 -0.248 -0.189 0.14
10 0
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 0.15 0.52 0.08 -0.11 -0.03 -0.11 -0.3 -0.19 0.05 0.093 0.08 -1.02 -0.34 0.19 -0.15 0.05 0.11 0.67 0.26 -0.094 -0.03 -0.41 -0.27 0.11 0.12 -0.09 -0.18 0.21 0.31 0.025 -0.23 0.1 -0.28 0.18 0.44 -0.1 -0.33 0.35 0.09 -0.236 -0.42 0.1 -0.15 0.25 0.12 0 0 0.25 0 -0.147 -0.36 -0.14 -0.12 0.63 0.06 -0.42 0.08 0.25 0.19 -0.098 -0.25 0.11 0.09 1.22 0.4 -1.53 -0.82 0.07 -0.1 -0.379 -0.31 -0.02 0.09 0.48 1.5 -1.2 -0.71 -0.03 0.48 -0.44
10 -0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.01 -0.03 0.05 0.25 0.19 -0.07
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -4.9435 -4.469 -4.2304 -4.0902 -3.8941 -3.8941 -3.8941 -3.8941 S.E(Log q) 0.4155 0.2185 0.2659 0.1899 0.3025 0.7237 0.7307 0.1119
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
2 -0.25 -1.954 11.45 0.24 11 0.23 -6.74 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 0.71 0.452 6.45 0.24 11 0.31 -4.944 1.25 -0.442 3.13 0.28 11 0.29 -4.475 1.04 -0.05 4.05 0.2 11 0.29 -4.236 0.83 0.434 4.87 0.46 11 0.17 -4.097 2.66 -0.982 -3.19 0.04 11 0.81 -3.898 1.77 -0.63 1.39 0.08 11 1.3 -4.039 1.54 -0.949 2.36 0.28 11 1.13 -3.9
10 0.97 1.134 3.91 0.99 11 0.09 -3.84
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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 29342 0.3 0 0 1 0.222 0.021
P shrinkage me 26078 0.16 0.778 0.024
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
26769 0.14 0.1 2 0.73 0.023
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 15153 0.247 0.065 0.26 2 1 0.188
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
15153 0.25 0.06 2 0.262 0.188
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 6844 0.194 0.111 0.57 3 1 0.34
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
6844 0.19 0.11 3 0.57 0.34
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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5037 0.171 0.19 1.11 4 1 0.336
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
5037 0.17 0.19 4 1.114 0.336
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2898 0.155 0.068 0.44 5 1 0.425
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2898 0.15 0.07 5 0.441 0.425
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1459 0.151 0.07 0.46 6 1 0.543
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1459 0.15 0.07 6 0.465 0.543
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 858 0.154 0.097 0.63 7 1 0.41
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Functional Unit 14 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
858 0.15 0.1 7 0.629 0.41
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 412 0.174 0.084 0.48 8 1 0.382
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
412 0.17 0.08 8 0.482 0.382
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 7
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 102 0.22 0.059 0.27 9 1 0.55
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
102 0.22 0.06 9 0.266 0.55
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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 20:56
Extended Survivors Analysis
Combined Males INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 7 0 1 ROI MAL 1995 2002 1 7 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 3
Terminal population estimation :
Final estimates not shrunk towards mean F
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 23 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.006 0 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0012 0.268 0.209 0.146 0.1 0.157 0.068 0.147 0.084 0.138 0.0973 0.739 0.632 0.626 0.441 0.588 0.514 0.691 0.496 0.489 0.3824 0.779 0.678 0.739 0.648 0.713 0.698 1.087 0.723 0.522 0.4745 0.648 0.481 0.617 0.64 0.736 0.61 0.877 1.117 0.544 0.4186 0.403 0.53 0.414 0.625 0.675 0.654 0.763 0.769 0.817 0.3417 0.326 0.339 0.273 0.239 0.647 0.597 0.589 0.527 0.432 0.42
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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1993 1.28E+06 9.20E+05 4.67E+05 1.50E+05 4.19E+04 1.46E+04 4.87E+031994 1.18E+06 9.39E+05 5.21E+05 1.65E+05 5.10E+04 1.62E+04 7.23E+031995 1.35E+06 8.71E+05 5.64E+05 2.05E+05 6.21E+04 2.34E+04 7.08E+031996 1.31E+06 9.99E+05 5.58E+05 2.24E+05 7.27E+04 2.48E+04 1.14E+041997 1.24E+06 9.69E+05 6.70E+05 2.66E+05 8.66E+04 2.84E+04 9.84E+031998 1.07E+06 9.12E+05 6.13E+05 2.76E+05 9.65E+04 3.07E+04 1.07E+041999 1.30E+06 7.93E+05 6.32E+05 2.72E+05 1.02E+05 3.88E+04 1.18E+042000 1.39E+06 9.60E+05 5.07E+05 2.34E+05 6.79E+04 3.13E+04 1.34E+042001 9.55E+05 1.03E+06 6.54E+05 2.29E+05 8.43E+04 1.65E+04 1.07E+042002 4.53E+05 7.07E+05 6.65E+05 2.97E+05 1.01E+05 3.62E+04 5.39E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 3.35E+05 4.75E+05 3.36E+05 1.37E+05 4.91E+04 1.91E+04
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.10E+06 8.81E+05 5.60E+05 2.13E+05 6.70E+04 2.20E+04 8.04E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.3031 0.1182 0.1474 0.2459 0.3454 0.4139 0.40331
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.09 0.58 -0.43 -0.36 1 0.6 0.382 0.16 0.25 -0.3 -0.12 -0.28 0.31 -0.313 0.32 0.39 0.16 0.09 0.03 0.17 -0.124 0.61 0.46 0.85 0.61 0.69 0.72 0.655 0.34 0.34 1.05 0.58 0.53 0.76 0.546 0.58 -0.35 1.04 0.27 0.07 0.43 0.57 0 -0.09 0.06 -0.17 -0.09 -0.07 -0.14
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0.08 -1.6 -0.57 -1.14 2.08 0.01 0.3 -0.34 0.01 -0.092 0.36 0.21 -0.42 -0.71 0.56 -0.14 0.08 -0.33 0.4 0.263 0.27 0.16 0.05 -0.31 0.08 -0.11 -0.05 -0.14 -0.06 -0.034 0.53 0.36 0.55 0.46 0.17 0.1 0.41 0.21 -0.13 0.025 0.42 0.2 0.53 0.59 0.09 0.14 0.37 0.63 0.01 -0.226 0.01 0.19 0.2 0.65 0.14 0.22 0.42 0.35 0.43 -0.37 -0.18 -0.07 -0.02 0.1 0.04 0.24 0.14 0.03 -0.2 -0.54
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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -12.3301 -7.8058 -6.2182 -6.2182 -6.2182 -6.2182 -6.2182 S.E(Log q) 0.899 0.384 0.1617 0.4571 0.4754 0.4016 0.2103
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 1.15 -0.136 12.1 0.08 17 1.08 -12.332 1.26 -0.203 6.26 0.06 17 0.51 -7.813 1.27 -0.631 4.3 0.35 17 0.21 -6.224 5.01 -3.22 -19.82 0.06 17 1.02 -5.875 2.19 -2.442 -0.36 0.3 17 0.56 -5.876 1.22 -0.836 5.07 0.6 17 0.36 -5.957 0.76 2.509 6.92 0.92 17 0.13 -6.271
Fleet : ROI MALES
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 99.99 99.99 1.52 1.03 -0.59 -0.81 -0.24 -0.56 -0.21 0.072 99.99 99.99 0.54 0.48 -0.29 -0.14 0.01 -0.36 0.02 -0.173 99.99 99.99 0.05 0.12 -0.3 -0.04 0.17 -0.04 0.14 -0.094 99.99 99.99 -0.48 -0.25 0 0.23 0.6 0.37 0.42 0.425 99.99 99.99 -0.92 -1.14 -0.1 -0.28 0.2 0.79 0.32 0.446 99.99 99.99 -0.42 -0.56 -0.19 -0.25 -0.28 0.28 0.67 0.087 99.99 99.99 -0.3 -0.32 -0.33 -0.76 -0.49 -0.2 0.06 0.7
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -11.7683 -7.4236 -5.9801 -5.9801 -5.9801 -5.9801 -5.9801 S.E(Log q) 0.8091 0.329 0.1551 0.4143 0.666 0.414 0.4895
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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 0.83 0.226 12.12 0.24 8 0.73 -11.772 0.8 0.235 8.67 0.2 8 0.28 -7.423 1.58 -0.589 1.72 0.15 8 0.26 -5.984 0.35 1.913 10.08 0.61 8 0.11 -5.85 0.44 0.92 9.01 0.32 8 0.29 -6.046 2.29 -0.997 0.64 0.09 8 0.93 -6.057 40.27 -2.175 ****** 0 8 14.24 -6.181
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 307653 0.936 0 0 1 0.458 0.001 ROI MALES 360158 0.86 0 0 1 0.542 0.001
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
335089 0.63 0.08 2 0.124 0.001
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 595134 0.368 0.092 0.25 2 0.437 0.078 ROI MALES 398604 0.324 0.015 0.05 2 0.563 0.115
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
474925 0.24 0.12 4 0.495 0.097
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 367409 0.233 0.156 0.67 3 0.475 0.355 ROI MALES 310546 0.221 0.094 0.43 3 0.525 0.408
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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
336361 0.16 0.09 6 0.555 0.382
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 126091 0.215 0.088 0.41 4 0.47 0.506 ROI MALES 147518 0.203 0.175 0.86 4 0.53 0.447
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
137019 0.15 0.1 8 0.656 0.474
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 43084 0.215 0.05 0.23 5 0.52 0.464 ROI MALES 56464 0.207 0.142 0.68 5 0.48 0.372
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
49058 0.15 0.08 10 0.555 0.418
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 17050 0.236 0.133 0.56 6 0.529 0.375 ROI MALES 21652 0.244 0.075 0.31 6 0.471 0.306
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Functional Unit 15 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
19082 0.17 0.08 12 0.485 0.341
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1945 0.235 0.176 0.75 7 0.679 0.533 ROI MALES 4934 0.31 0.09 0.29 7 0.321 0.245
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2622 0.19 0.16 14 0.848 0.42
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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 20:48
Extended Survivors Analysis
Combined Females INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 17 years. 1986 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 1 7 0 1 ROI MAL 1995 2002 1 7 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 3
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 21 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.006 0 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0022 0.268 0.21 0.147 0.1 0.157 0.07 0.162 0.094 0.154 0.113 0.739 0.631 0.632 0.446 0.594 0.516 0.735 0.569 0.573 0.4424 0.824 0.679 0.738 0.66 0.727 0.711 1.095 0.824 0.665 0.625 0.71 0.535 0.618 0.64 0.763 0.634 0.913 1.142 0.704 0.6376 0.471 0.629 0.491 0.626 0.673 0.703 0.825 0.843 0.867 0.5267 0.459 0.429 0.356 0.305 0.65 0.595 0.677 0.614 0.513 0.469
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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1993 1.27E+06 9.20E+05 4.67E+05 1.45E+05 3.93E+04 1.29E+04 3.68E+031994 1.17E+06 9.34E+05 5.22E+05 1.65E+05 4.70E+04 1.43E+04 5.97E+031995 1.35E+06 8.65E+05 5.61E+05 2.05E+05 6.21E+04 2.04E+04 5.65E+031996 1.31E+06 9.93E+05 5.53E+05 2.21E+05 7.28E+04 2.48E+04 9.26E+031997 1.19E+06 9.67E+05 6.65E+05 2.62E+05 8.45E+04 2.84E+04 9.82E+031998 9.79E+05 8.77E+05 6.12E+05 2.72E+05 9.39E+04 2.92E+04 1.07E+041999 1.16E+06 7.25E+05 6.06E+05 2.71E+05 9.91E+04 3.69E+04 1.07E+042000 1.26E+06 8.61E+05 4.57E+05 2.15E+05 6.71E+04 2.95E+04 1.20E+042001 8.49E+05 9.30E+05 5.81E+05 1.91E+05 7.00E+04 1.59E+04 9.39E+032002 2.69E+05 6.28E+05 5.91E+05 2.43E+05 7.29E+04 2.56E+04 4.94E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.99E+05 4.17E+05 2.81E+05 9.67E+04 2.86E+04 1.12E+04
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.01E+06 8.46E+05 5.40E+05 2.03E+05 6.24E+04 1.99E+04 6.86E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.4388 0.1337 0.1366 0.2285 0.3304 0.4198 0.44861
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : Northern Ireland
Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 -0.18 0.5 -0.5 -0.44 0.93 0.52 0.32 0.12 0.21 -0.34 -0.16 -0.32 0.29 -0.353 0.28 0.35 0.12 0.05 -0.01 0.13 -0.144 0.57 0.44 0.84 0.58 0.68 0.71 0.645 0.54 0.32 1.07 0.64 0.52 0.8 0.576 0.67 0.05 1.07 0.39 0.28 0.46 0.657 0.59 0.12 0.77 -0.06 0.19 0.36 -0.04
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 0 -1.68 -0.64 -1.23 2.03 0.01 0.32 -0.32 0.04 0.352 0.32 0.17 -0.46 -0.74 0.52 -0.15 0.13 -0.26 0.47 0.343 0.22 0.11 0.01 -0.35 0.04 -0.16 -0.03 -0.06 0.05 0.074 0.54 0.32 0.51 0.43 0.14 0.07 0.37 0.29 0.06 0.245 0.47 0.26 0.49 0.55 0.08 0.13 0.36 0.6 0.21 0.146 0.12 0.31 0.32 0.61 0.09 0.24 0.45 0.4 0.44 0.087 0.11 0.11 0.2 0.3 -0.01 0.19 0.23 0.14 -0.08 -0.48
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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log -12.2463 -7.7624 -6.1709 -6.1709 -6.1709 -6.1709 -6.1709 S.E(Log q) 0.9131 0.396 0.1531 0.446 0.4798 0.4285 0.2667
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 1.64 -0.601 11.24 0.08 17 1.54 -12.252 2.08 -0.563 1.41 0.03 17 0.85 -7.763 1.1 -0.26 5.46 0.4 17 0.18 -6.174 2.75 -2.705 -5.42 0.19 17 0.49 -5.85 1.68 -2.135 2.18 0.49 17 0.35 -5.776 1.13 -0.719 5.29 0.76 17 0.25 -5.827 0.92 0.508 6.3 0.8 17 0.24 -6.071
Fleet : ROI MALES
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 99.99 99.99 1.4 0.91 -0.68 -0.85 -0.25 -0.58 -0.22 0.472 99.99 99.99 0.48 0.43 -0.36 -0.16 0.04 -0.31 0.07 -0.113 99.99 99.99 -0.01 0.06 -0.36 -0.1 0.16 0.03 0.23 -0.024 99.99 99.99 -0.55 -0.3 -0.05 0.18 0.54 0.42 0.59 0.625 99.99 99.99 -0.99 -1.21 -0.13 -0.31 0.17 0.75 0.51 0.786 99.99 99.99 -0.32 -0.63 -0.26 -0.24 -0.27 0.3 0.66 0.447 99.99 99.99 -0.1 -0.14 -0.4 -0.83 -0.42 -0.11 0.16 0.74
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log -11.6411 -7.3592 -5.912 -5.912 -5.912 -5.912 -5.912 S.E(Log q) 0.7988 0.3062 0.1795 0.4849 0.7485 0.4516 0.4908
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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 1.15 -0.211 11.33 0.26 8 0.99 -11.642 0.77 0.364 8.79 0.31 8 0.25 -7.363 2.96 -1.071 -8.48 0.05 8 0.53 -5.914 0.72 0.294 7.59 0.16 8 0.34 -5.715 0.88 0.071 6.56 0.06 8 0.72 -5.946 4.23 -1.174 -7.68 0.02 8 1.86 -5.947 -40.56 -2.363 131.93 0 8 14.67 -6.051
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 282839 0.95 0 0 1 0.17 0.001 ROI MAL 317012 0.849 0 0 1 0.213 0.001
F shrinka 153270 0.5 0.616 0.002
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
198667 0.39 0.38 3 0.959 0.002
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 561269 0.378 0.11 0.29 2 0.314 0.083 ROI MAL 368166 0.304 0.038 0.12 2 0.486 0.124
F shrinka 354428 0.5 0.2 0.128
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of y s.e s.e Ratio
417050 0.21 0.11 5 0.504 0.11
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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 332122 0.236 0.151 0.64 3 0.391 0.386 ROI MALES 276581 0.214 0.103 0.48 3 0.466 0.448
F shrinkage m 187863 0.5 0.142 0.606
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
281189 0.15 0.11 7 0.685 0.442
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 102272 0.218 0.106 0.49 4 0.386 0.595 ROI MALES 110352 0.205 0.207 1.01 4 0.415 0.561
F shrinkage m 65725 0.5 0.198 0.817
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
96687 0.16 0.12 9 0.766 0.62
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 30500 0.227 0.042 0.18 5 0.401 0.607 ROI MALES 36461 0.217 0.189 0.87 5 0.332 0.529
F shrinkage m 19168 0.5 0.267 0.845
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
28583 0.18 0.12 11 0.658 0.637
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Functional Unit 15 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 12689 0.258 0.1 0.39 6 0.398 0.477 ROI MALES 15476 0.279 0.107 0.38 6 0.328 0.407
F shrinkage m 6396 0.5 0.274 0.795
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
11225 0.19 0.13 13 0.682 0.526
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1732 0.241 0.159 0.66 7 0.53 0.582 ROI MALES 4342 0.331 0.103 0.31 7 0.235 0.274
F shrinkage m 2264 0.5 0.235 0.473
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2290 0.19 0.13 15 0.678 0.469
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Management Area L Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 10:56
Extended Survivors Analysis
FU17_mal INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 8 years. 1995 to 2002. Ages 2 to 11.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1995 2002 2 10 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting not applied
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 4
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 2.500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00014
Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2
109 0.0032 0.17 0.4676 0.9596 1.0447 1.1524 1.0636 1.8086 1.06
Iteration 30 0.0032 0.17 0.4676 0.9596 1.0448 1.1524 1.0636 1.8087 1.06
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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.007 0.0033 0.015 0.046 0.019 0.059 0.055 0.026 0.201 0.174 0.381 0.283 0.241 0.665 0.479 0.5 0.523 0.4685 0.82 0.644 0.623 1.025 1.019 1.227 0.678 0.966 1.062 0.7 0.693 1.031 0.912 0.869 0.638 1.0457 1.108 0.626 0.487 0.997 0.686 0.986 0.793 1.1528 1.738 0.547 0.722 0.794 0.715 0.939 0.578 1.0649 5.863 0.19 0.516 1.51 0.295 2.102 0.352 1.809
10 0.834 0.542 0.795 1.087 0.974 1.049 0.947 1.06
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1995 6.46E+04 4.43E+04 2.76E+04 1.46E+04 4.71E+03 1.66E+03 4.38E+02 1.32E+02 1.17E+021996 6.77E+04 4.79E+04 3.24E+04 1.40E+04 4.77E+03 1.21E+03 4.06E+02 5.70E+01 2.78E-011997 6.62E+04 5.01E+04 3.39E+04 1.81E+04 5.43E+03 1.75E+03 4.78E+02 1.74E+02 3.49E+011998 5.82E+04 4.90E+04 3.64E+04 1.97E+04 7.18E+03 2.01E+03 7.98E+02 1.72E+02 7.69E+011999 6.56E+04 4.31E+04 3.43E+04 1.39E+04 5.24E+03 1.90E+03 5.50E+02 2.67E+02 2.82E+012000 8.03E+04 4.86E+04 3.02E+04 1.57E+04 3.71E+03 1.56E+03 7.08E+02 1.99E+02 1.47E+022001 7.27E+04 5.95E+04 3.51E+04 1.36E+04 3.42E+03 1.15E+03 4.31E+02 2.05E+02 1.80E+012002 6.73E+04 5.35E+04 3.61E+04 1.54E+04 5.11E+03 1.34E+03 3.86E+02 1.79E+02 1.07E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 4.97E+04 3.34E+04 1.67E+04 4.37E+03 1.33E+03 3.13E+02 9.88E+01 2.18E+01
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
6.76E+04 4.93E+04 3.31E+04 1.55E+04 4.83E+03 1.54E+03 5.07E+02 1.61E+02 3.02E+01
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.0933 0.102 0.0955 0.1343 0.2303 0.2072 0.2666 0.4627 2.03911
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 99.99 -0.03 -0.05 0.01 -0.01 99.99 0.01 0.063 -0.07 0.1 -0.14 -0.01 0.11 -0.09 0.02 0.094 -0.02 0.2 -0.51 0.17 -0.04 0.13 0.09 -0.015 0.04 0.32 -0.26 -0.1 0.01 0.32 -0.35 06 0.29 0.41 -0.15 -0.09 -0.1 -0.01 -0.4 0.097 0.34 0.3 -0.5 -0.13 -0.38 0.11 -0.19 0.188 0.77 0.16 -0.11 -0.35 -0.34 0.06 -0.5 0.19 1.93 -0.89 -0.44 0.28 -1.21 0.84 -0.99 0.62
10 0.06 99.99 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 0.17 -0.02 0.1
10
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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -10.5907 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 -9.9003 S.E(Log q) 0.2253 0.241 0.2576 0.3139 0.4029 1.0913 0.0876
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
2 0.04 3.847 11.37 0.8 6 0.04 -17.213 0.14 2.294 11.08 0.54 8 0.1 -12.72
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
4 1.09 -0.087 10.61 0.13 8 0.27 -10.595 1.67 -0.563 10.07 0.1 8 0.42 -9.96 0.83 0.44 9.66 0.54 8 0.23 -9.97 2.76 -1.147 14.5 0.07 8 0.84 -9.938 2.04 -0.881 13.78 0.11 8 0.83 -9.939 1.07 -0.064 10.2 0.14 8 1.25 -9.88
10 0.93 2.632 9.46 1 7 0.05 -9.871
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 52533 0.3 0 0 1 0.103 0.003
P shrinkage me 49279 0.1 0.895 0.003
F shrinkage me 106783 2.5 0.001 0.001
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
49662 0.1 0.05 3 0.487 0.003
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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 35185 0.212 0.037 0.17 2 0.145 0.162
P shrinkage me 33103 0.1 0.853 0.172
F shrinkage me 82575 2.5 0.001 0.072
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
33435 0.09 0.04 4 0.433 0.17
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 16751 0.213 0.016 0.07 2 0.988 0.467
F shrinkage me 15885 2.5 0.012 0.488
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
16740 0.21 0.01 3 0.056 0.468
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 4367 0.155 0.034 0.22 4 0.987 0.96
F shrinkage me 4586 2.5 0.013 0.93
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
4370 0.16 0.03 5 0.185 0.96
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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1324 0.154 0.089 0.58 5 0.983 1.048
F shrinkage me 1857 2.5 0.017 0.842
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1332 0.16 0.08 6 0.519 1.045
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 308 0.181 0.121 0.67 6 0.975 1.162
F shrinkage me 550 2.5 0.025 0.803
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
313 0.19 0.12 7 0.616 1.152
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 97 0.206 0.052 0.25 7 0.967 1.075
F shrinkage me 164 2.5 0.033 0.761
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
99 0.22 0.06 8 0.278 1.064
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Functional Unit 17 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 19 0.23 0.149 0.65 7 0.885 1.934
F shrinkage me 68 2.5 0.115 0.972
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
22 0.35 0.21 8 0.594 1.809
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 28 0.222 0.088 0.4 8 0.971 1.055
F shrinkage me 21 2.5 0.029 1.229
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
27 0.23 0.08 9 0.362 1.06
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Management Area M Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
22/03/2003 10:46
Extended Survivors Analysis
Celtic sea males INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 12 years. 1991 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1991 2002 1 7 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 5
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 1.500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 25 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.026 0.026 0.033 0.033 0.029 0.03 0.015 0.027 0.035 0.023 0.243 0.253 0.289 0.281 0.258 0.253 0.197 0.186 0.317 0.2994 0.367 0.406 0.39 0.463 0.368 0.365 0.306 0.252 0.433 0.3495 0.595 0.535 0.614 0.583 0.576 0.52 0.437 0.544 0.384 0.8046 0.547 0.49 0.64 0.523 0.575 0.539 0.467 0.819 0.531 0.7777 0.594 0.559 0.561 0.476 0.486 0.411 0.448 0.558 0.497 0.498
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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1993 4.94E+05 3.55E+05 2.54E+05 1.41E+05 7.65E+04 3.00E+04 1.15E+041994 4.45E+05 3.66E+05 2.56E+05 1.48E+05 7.24E+04 3.13E+04 1.28E+041995 4.03E+05 3.30E+05 2.64E+05 1.47E+05 7.29E+04 3.14E+04 1.42E+041996 3.72E+05 2.98E+05 2.36E+05 1.46E+05 7.38E+04 2.92E+04 1.23E+041997 3.33E+05 2.76E+05 2.14E+05 1.32E+05 6.83E+04 3.05E+04 1.28E+041998 4.58E+05 2.47E+05 1.98E+05 1.22E+05 6.78E+04 2.84E+04 1.27E+041999 3.78E+05 3.39E+05 1.77E+05 1.14E+05 6.30E+04 2.99E+04 1.23E+042000 3.34E+05 2.80E+05 2.48E+05 1.08E+05 6.22E+04 3.01E+04 1.39E+042001 5.54E+05 2.47E+05 2.02E+05 1.52E+05 6.21E+04 2.67E+04 9.84E+032002 5.40E+05 4.10E+05 1.77E+05 1.09E+05 7.32E+04 3.13E+04 1.17E+04
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 3.99E+05 2.98E+05 9.72E+04 5.70E+04 2.43E+04 1.07E+04
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
4.30E+05 3.14E+05 2.23E+05 1.32E+05 6.70E+04 2.89E+04 1.21E+04
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.1814 0.1691 0.1571 0.141 0.113 0.1065 0.12091
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1991 19921 -0.09 -0.022 -0.03 -0.043 0.02 0.134 0.2 0.165 -0.11 -0.226 0.12 -0.227 -0.04 -0.11
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.31 0.23 0.13 0.3 0.14 -0.07 -0.05 -0.46 0.16 02 -0.03 -0.1 0.19 0.25 0.16 0.3 -0.6 -0.12 0.17 -0.153 -0.05 -0.09 0.07 0.13 0.06 0.15 -0.27 -0.46 0.1 0.274 -0.01 0.01 0 0.26 0.04 0.14 -0.2 -0.52 0.04 0.055 0.11 -0.08 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.13 -0.21 -0.12 -0.44 0.526 0.02 -0.16 0.13 0.02 0.12 0.17 -0.14 0.28 -0.12 0.487 0.1 -0.03 0 -0.07 -0.04 -0.1 -0.18 -0.1 -0.18 0.04
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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -26.6161 -16.3948 -14.1274 -13.7587 -13.4008 -13.4008 -13.4008 S.E(Log q) 0.2252 0.2567 0.2121 0.2153 0.2554 0.2209 0.1083
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 0.87 0.342 24.89 0.46 12 0.21 -26.622 5.79 -1.899 34.3 0.02 12 1.32 -16.393 1.34 -0.564 14.75 0.24 12 0.3 -14.134 0.54 1.959 12.85 0.68 12 0.1 -13.765 0.43 2.071 12.1 0.61 12 0.1 -13.46 0.62 0.948 12.18 0.43 12 0.13 -13.337 0.86 0.715 12.88 0.74 12 0.08 -13.461
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 401220 0.3 0 0 1 0.962 0
F shrinkage me 348428 1.5 0.038 0
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
399048 0.29 0.03 2 0.094 0
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 299673 0.212 0.153 0.72 2 0.98 0.02
F shrinkage me 220908 1.5 0.02 0.027
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
297850 0.21 0.11 3 0.53 0.02
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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 96769 0.173 0.228 1.31 3 0.982 0.3
F shrinkage mean 122485 1.5 0.018 0.244
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
97182 0.17 0.19 4 1.075 0.299
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 56982 0.152 0.049 0.32 4 0.982 0.349
F shrinkage mean 57134 1.5 0.018 0.348
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
56985 0.15 0.04 5 0.277 0.349
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 23826 0.14 0.21 1.5 5 0.973 0.814
F shrinkage mean 46362 1.5 0.027 0.498
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
24258 0.14 0.19 6 1.351 0.804
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Functional Units 20–22 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 10577 0.131 0.184 1.4 6 0.975 0.782
F shrinkage mean 15447 1.5 0.025 0.594
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
10676 0.13 0.17 7 1.26 0.777
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 5
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 5232 0.141 0.055 0.39 7 0.976 0.499
F shrinkage mean 5874 1.5 0.024 0.455
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
5246 0.14 0.05 8 0.359 0.498
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Management Area N Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 9:05
Extended Survivors Analysis
bay of biscay M+F WG 2002 t0=0 9+
CPUE data from file tuneff3.dat
Catch data for 16 years. 1987 to 2002. Ages 1 to 9.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age COMMER 1987 2002 0 8 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 1.500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 30 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.024 0.018 0.016 0.017 0.023 0.021 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.0182 0.415 0.32 0.339 0.283 0.44 0.387 0.311 0.282 0.327 0.3663 0.712 0.611 0.669 0.606 0.743 0.646 0.566 0.566 0.647 0.6914 0.849 0.668 0.649 0.711 0.657 0.656 0.659 0.62 0.703 0.6335 0.85 0.557 0.639 0.621 0.449 0.561 0.625 0.613 0.673 0.4686 0.845 0.469 0.615 0.539 0.343 0.566 0.415 0.481 0.728 0.3897 0.883 0.586 0.575 0.67 0.263 0.591 0.446 0.333 0.57 0.3488 0.951 0.615 0.594 0.531 0.399 0.642 0.414 0.389 0.513 0.392
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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1993 6.13E+05 4.79E+05 2.68E+05 1.03E+05 3.94E+04 1.63E+04 7.68E+03 3.54E+031994 5.84E+05 4.43E+05 2.46E+05 1.03E+05 3.44E+04 1.31E+04 5.44E+03 2.47E+031995 5.87E+05 4.25E+05 2.50E+05 1.04E+05 4.10E+04 1.54E+04 6.40E+03 2.36E+031996 5.65E+05 4.28E+05 2.36E+05 9.99E+04 4.24E+04 1.68E+04 6.46E+03 2.80E+031997 5.06E+05 4.12E+05 2.51E+05 1.00E+05 3.82E+04 1.78E+04 7.65E+03 2.58E+031998 4.63E+05 3.66E+05 2.07E+05 9.31E+04 4.04E+04 1.90E+04 9.81E+03 4.58E+031999 5.30E+05 3.36E+05 1.94E+05 8.43E+04 3.76E+04 1.80E+04 8.40E+03 4.23E+032000 6.37E+05 3.87E+05 1.92E+05 8.57E+04 3.40E+04 1.57E+04 9.23E+03 4.19E+032001 6.07E+05 4.67E+05 2.28E+05 8.48E+04 3.59E+04 1.43E+04 7.56E+03 5.15E+032002 6.46E+05 4.43E+05 2.62E+05 9.28E+04 3.27E+04 1.43E+04 5.39E+03 3.33E+03
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 4.70E+05 2.39E+05 1.02E+05 3.84E+04 1.60E+04 7.53E+03 2.96E+03
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
6.03E+05 4.43E+05 2.38E+05 9.72E+04 3.84E+04 1.63E+04 7.32E+03 3.34E+03
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.154 0.1694 0.1296 0.0985 0.0959 0.1146 0.1914 0.26421
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas
Age 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19921 0.52 0.82 0.58 0.25 -0.44 -0.052 0.35 0.47 0.33 -0.04 -0.34 -0.163 -0.05 -0.07 -0.32 -0.41 -0.35 -0.184 -0.23 -0.16 -0.38 -0.13 -0.28 -0.25 -0.33 -0.32 -0.31 -0.08 -0.24 -0.186 -0.36 -0.45 -0.09 0.14 -0.11 -0.287 -0.19 -0.48 0.04 0.11 -0.07 -0.418 -0.03 0.02 0.21 0.09 -0.01 0.01
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.09 -0.18 -0.27 -0.03 0.34 0.29 -0.19 -0.27 -0.06 02 -0.22 -0.28 -0.17 -0.15 0.33 0.24 0.04 -0.03 0.07 0.063 -0.24 -0.19 -0.05 0.05 0.3 0.19 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.134 -0.12 -0.16 -0.13 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.14 0.22 -0.015 0.01 -0.21 -0.02 0.14 -0.13 0.12 0.25 0.26 0.3 -0.186 0.13 -0.26 0.06 0.13 -0.27 0.26 -0.03 0.14 0.5 -0.247 0.17 -0.04 0 0.34 -0.54 0.3 0.04 -0.22 0.26 -0.358 0.24 0.01 0.03 0.11 -0.12 0.38 -0.03 -0.07 0.16 -0.23
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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mean Log q -17.0641 -14.1092 -13.5594 -13.5014 -13.628 -13.7512 -13.7512 -13.7512 S.E(Log q) 0.2904 0.2211 0.2122 0.1807 0.2109 0.2546 0.2922 0.1706
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 0.95 0.097 16.86 0.24 16 0.29 -17.062 1.04 -0.095 14.15 0.35 16 0.24 -14.113 3.52 -1.528 16.53 0.04 16 0.7 -13.564 -2.17 -4.133 7.11 0.15 16 0.25 -13.55 1.45 -0.451 15.02 0.09 16 0.32 -13.636 0.96 0.051 13.61 0.18 16 0.26 -13.757 0.76 0.665 12.63 0.44 16 0.23 -13.798 0.8 1.338 12.61 0.83 16 0.13 -13.711
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 468951 0.302 0 0 1 0.96 0.018
F shrinkage mean 503961 1.5 0.04 0.017
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
470294 0.3 0.01 2 0.048 0.018
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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 238816 0.213 0.057 0.27 2 0.972 0.367
F shrinkage mean 250678 1.5 0.028 0.352
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
239146 0.21 0.04 3 0.191 0.366
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 101922 0.176 0.122 0.7 3 0.968 0.693
F shrinkage mean 113430 1.5 0.032 0.641
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
102271 0.18 0.1 4 0.559 0.691
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 38485 0.164 0.07 0.43 4 0.968 0.632
F shrinkage mean 35767 1.5 0.032 0.667
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
38396 0.17 0.06 5 0.362 0.633
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 16102 0.164 0.094 0.57 5 0.971 0.465
F shrinkage mean 11832 1.5 0.029 0.59
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Functional Units 23–24 – Males and Females Combined Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
15961 0.16 0.09 6 0.522 0.468
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 7603 0.165 0.11 0.67 6 0.973 0.386
F shrinkage mean 5355 1.5 0.027 0.512
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
7532 0.17 0.1 7 0.616 0.389
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 2990 0.171 0.15 0.88 7 0.972 0.346
F shrinkage mean 2206 1.5 0.028 0.445
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2965 0.17 0.14 8 0.81 0.348
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F COMMERCIAL CPUE (bas 1766 0.16 0.087 0.54 8 0.975 0.39
F shrinkage mean 1261 1.5 0.025 0.511
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1751 0.16 0.08 9 0.513 0.392
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Management Area O Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
10/03/2003 17:43
Extended Survivors Analysis
North Galicia Males�INDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF2.DAT
Catch data for 20 years. 1983 to 2002. Ages 2 to 10.
Fleet First Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 2 9 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 16 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0.048 0.015 0.014 0.018 0.012 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.004 0.0053 0.134 0.249 0.253 0.219 0.383 0.074 0.14 0.071 0.161 0.1474 0.669 0.616 0.717 0.635 0.942 0.329 0.466 0.287 0.598 0.4645 1.054 0.841 1.08 0.907 0.986 0.606 0.565 0.333 0.575 0.5036 1.335 1.052 1.281 0.856 0.666 0.68 0.552 0.275 0.569 0.5027 1.08 0.838 1.015 1.221 0.522 0.541 0.477 0.241 0.281 0.4248 0.88 0.887 0.455 1.371 0.783 0.446 0.421 0.283 0.441 0.5549 0.866 0.718 0.77 0.812 0.574 0.574 0.471 0.367 0.469 0.436
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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1993 6.19E+03 5.05E+03 3.83E+03 1.66E+03 7.72E+02 2.04E+02 1.13E+02 4.29E+011994 5.64E+03 4.83E+03 3.62E+03 1.60E+03 4.74E+02 1.66E+02 5.68E+01 3.84E+011995 4.88E+03 4.55E+03 3.08E+03 1.60E+03 5.67E+02 1.35E+02 5.89E+01 1.91E+011996 3.39E+03 3.94E+03 2.89E+03 1.23E+03 4.45E+02 1.29E+02 4.01E+01 3.06E+011997 3.17E+03 2.72E+03 2.59E+03 1.25E+03 4.07E+02 1.55E+02 3.11E+01 8.35E+001998 4.22E+03 2.57E+03 1.52E+03 8.27E+02 3.83E+02 1.71E+02 7.52E+01 1.16E+011999 4.22E+03 3.45E+03 1.95E+03 8.96E+02 3.70E+02 1.59E+02 8.17E+01 3.94E+012000 4.64E+03 3.43E+03 2.45E+03 1.00E+03 4.17E+02 1.74E+02 8.08E+01 4.39E+012001 3.57E+03 3.79E+03 2.62E+03 1.51E+03 5.89E+02 2.59E+02 1.12E+02 4.98E+012002 1.13E+03 2.91E+03 2.64E+03 1.18E+03 6.95E+02 2.73E+02 1.60E+02 5.91E+01
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 9.19E+02 2.06E+03 1.36E+03 5.84E+02 3.45E+02 1.46E+02 7.54E+01
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
4.47E+03 4.25E+03 3.05E+03 1.44E+03 5.69E+02 2.03E+02 7.80E+01 2.94E+01
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.5674 0.4034 0.4013 0.3875 0.3668 0.3563 0.4971 0.69961
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19962 1.5 1.41 -0.04 -4.41 -2.31 0.59 -0.28 1.86 0.81 0.71 1.123 0.06 0.27 0.33 -1.33 -0.92 0.76 0.48 -0.45 0.29 0.26 0.264 -0.04 -0.08 0.34 -0.33 -0.65 -0.06 0.42 -0.03 0.01 0.11 0.135 0.1 0.2 0.52 0.35 -0.42 0.11 0.52 0.42 0.31 0.51 0.486 -0.01 0.67 0.35 0.75 -0.27 0.14 0.75 0.65 0.54 0.68 0.427 0.37 0.64 0 0.98 0.01 -0.03 0.3 0.45 0.31 0.46 0.788 0.86 0.6 -0.55 0.5 0.43 -0.53 0.33 0.25 0.36 -0.37 0.899 0.47 0.42 0.21 0.45 -0.09 0 0.37 0.23 0.18 0.15 0.33
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log q -13.75 -10.4162 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 -9.232 S.E(Log q) 1.3146 0.6184 0.3782 0.3921 0.4643 0.4423 0.4523 0.2294
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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
2 2.51 -0.842 21.82 0.03 17 3.34 -13.753 0.88 0.286 10.16 0.35 17 0.57 -10.424 0.8 0.842 8.99 0.65 17 0.31 -9.235 0.79 1.162 8.63 0.75 17 0.23 -8.996 0.7 1.571 8.16 0.73 17 0.23 -8.957 1.01 -0.026 9.17 0.4 17 0.45 -9.138 1.21 -0.622 10.12 0.48 17 0.55 -9.149 0.96 0.526 8.86 0.94 17 0.18 -9.11
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1042 1.368 0 0 1 0.117 0.004
F shrinkage mea 904 0.5 0.883 0.005
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
919 0.47 0.13 2 0.284 0.005
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 2539 0.582 0.125 0.21 2 0.389 0.121
F shrinkage mea 1797 0.5 0.611 0.166
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2056 0.38 0.2 3 0.523 0.147
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1527 0.327 0.2 0.61 3 0.585 0.423
F shrinkage mea 1154 0.5 0.415 0.528
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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1359 0.28 0.16 4 0.577 0.464
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1997
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 687 0.267 0.17 0.63 4 0.626 0.442
F shrinkage mea 446 0.5 0.374 0.618
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
584 0.25 0.18 5 0.701 0.503
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1996
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 370 0.243 0.179 0.74 5 0.634 0.474
F shrinkage mea 304 0.5 0.366 0.553
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
345 0.24 0.14 6 0.578 0.502
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1995
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 144 0.233 0.137 0.59 6 0.66 0.429
F shrinkage mea 150 0.5 0.34 0.415
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
146 0.23 0.1 7 0.445 0.424
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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1994
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 69 0.216 0.179 0.83 7 0.674 0.594
F shrinkage mea 91 0.5 0.326 0.479
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
75 0.22 0.15 8 0.68 0.554
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1993
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 33 0.201 0.104 0.52 8 0.755 0.419
F shrinkage mea 27 0.5 0.245 0.493
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
31 0.2 0.09 9 0.471 0.436
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Functional Unit 25 – Males Tuning Data Continued. FLEET 1
CPUE adjusted to start of year
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1986 0.05356506 0.3089084 0.5504405 0.2853355 0.09578566 0.02764353 0.01161805 0.000692641987 0.03067372 0.3495096 0.5928667 0.3250307 0.2115143 0.08348729 0.01206671 0.001458891988 0.00742596 0.2351302 0.8385972 0.5782103 0.1787763 0.03710106 0.00892855 0.002870251989 0.00013425 0.04671237 0.2513409 0.2977726 0.216911 0.1161246 0.02743707 0.014057531990 0.0012952 0.1005507 0.23416 0.1167123 0.05030307 0.02021434 0.00882351 0.004110741991 0.01513701 0.6411536 0.5747407 0.2688738 0.09780633 0.02811569 0.00425823 0.001379451992 0.00498306 0.3068188 0.7807977 0.4441393 0.1943876 0.04231853 0.01698995 0.00578131993 0.04251757 0.09675505 0.3621898 0.2460597 0.1445676 0.03117823 0.01425234 0.00530031994 0.01352917 0.1932185 0.3569205 0.2151642 0.07917494 0.02209094 0.00798654 0.004482171995 0.01061137 0.1764889 0.3366168 0.2613742 0.1098283 0.02090364 0.00398748 0.002172181996 0.01103846 0.1523202 0.3226267 0.1950472 0.06652367 0.02742309 0.00956906 0.004176591997 0.0065555 0.1815289 0.4220355 0.2137724 0.04713101 0.0141631 0.00417181 0.000975891998 0.00121093 0.02692685 0.07059298 0.07026808 0.03630061 0.01269659 0.00458516 0.000944951999 0.00541486 0.1134611 0.2117874 0.1174102 0.04738001 0.01795779 0.00806132 0.004435992000 0.00163388 0.05346867 0.1531049 0.07243989 0.0254984 0.00906197 0.00524684 0.003696012001 0.00360589 0.1415436 0.3593941 0.1989944 0.07646625 0.01699573 0.01150572 0.005439642002 0.00136537 0.1140405 0.3061126 0.1444061 0.09011209 0.02808891 0.02153517 0.00684205
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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
10/03/2003 18:47
Extended Survivors Analysis
North Galicia FemaleINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF2.DAT
Catch data for 20 years. 1983 to 2002. Ages 2 to 11.
Fleet First Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age FLEET 1 1986 2002 2 10 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .500
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00015
Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0103 0.0359 0.0814 0.1388 0.2052 0.1919 0.2001 0.2464 0.1877 Iteration 30 0.0103 0.0359 0.0814 0.1388 0.2052 0.1919 0.2 0.2463 0.1877
1
Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0.01 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.017 0.003 0.008 0.006 0.023 0.013 0.037 0.08 0.077 0.096 0.102 0.025 0.031 0.016 0.068 0.0364 0.042 0.111 0.131 0.15 0.226 0.053 0.095 0.034 0.076 0.0815 0.131 0.166 0.193 0.214 0.294 0.082 0.116 0.083 0.152 0.1396 0.269 0.262 0.305 0.229 0.359 0.158 0.239 0.152 0.179 0.2057 0.294 0.288 0.327 0.191 0.309 0.183 0.238 0.13 0.169 0.1928 0.273 0.232 0.331 0.217 0.327 0.209 0.238 0.116 0.16 0.29 0.231 0.201 0.467 0.239 0.303 0.226 0.344 0.162 0.233 0.246
10 0.25 0.248 0.318 0.198 0.22 0.211 0.189 0.138 0.163 0.188
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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1993 6.61E+03 5.09E+03 4.82E+03 3.37E+03 2.57E+03 2.05E+03 1.53E+03 7.01E+02 4.18E+021994 5.16E+03 5.36E+03 4.02E+03 3.79E+03 2.42E+03 1.61E+03 1.25E+03 9.53E+02 4.56E+021995 4.37E+03 4.14E+03 4.05E+03 2.94E+03 2.63E+03 1.53E+03 9.86E+02 8.10E+02 6.38E+021996 3.67E+03 3.50E+03 3.14E+03 2.91E+03 1.99E+03 1.58E+03 9.02E+02 5.80E+02 4.16E+021997 3.25E+03 2.95E+03 2.60E+03 2.22E+03 1.92E+03 1.29E+03 1.07E+03 5.94E+02 3.74E+021998 3.34E+03 2.62E+03 2.18E+03 1.70E+03 1.35E+03 1.10E+03 7.78E+02 6.32E+02 3.59E+021999 2.63E+03 2.72E+03 2.09E+03 1.69E+03 1.28E+03 9.45E+02 7.49E+02 5.17E+02 4.13E+022000 1.65E+03 2.13E+03 2.16E+03 1.55E+03 1.23E+03 8.26E+02 6.10E+02 4.84E+02 3.00E+022001 9.68E+02 1.34E+03 1.72E+03 1.71E+03 1.17E+03 8.68E+02 5.94E+02 4.44E+02 3.37E+022002 6.92E+02 7.74E+02 1.03E+03 1.31E+03 1.20E+03 8.02E+02 6.00E+02 4.14E+02 2.88E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 5.61E+02 6.12E+02 7.75E+02 9.30E+02 8.02E+02 5.42E+02 4.03E+02 2.65E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
3.33E+03 3.29E+03 3.03E+03 2.56E+03 1.96E+03 1.37E+03 9.61E+02 6.64E+02 4.51E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.8299 0.7082 0.5713 0.4816 0.4415 0.4252 0.3916 0.3653 0.381
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : FLEET 1
Age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 1.31 1.12 -2.52 0 -0.82 0.54 -1.11 -0.28 0.51 0.63 0.59 0.45 -1.57 -0.04 -0.37 1.01 0.353 0.8 0.99 -0.45 -3.18 -0.58 1.22 -0.06 -0.46 0.44 0.36 0.72 0.77 -0.86 -0.12 -0.88 0.65 0.114 0.15 0.51 0.12 -1.66 -0.67 0.79 0.6 -0.99 0.1 0.22 0.49 0.89 -0.78 0.32 -0.78 0.09 0.245 0.01 0.36 0.09 -0.54 -0.58 0.26 0.5 -0.38 -0.02 0.09 0.33 0.63 -0.84 -0.01 -0.41 0.25 0.226 -0.34 0.33 -0.43 -0.05 -0.55 -0.18 0.16 -0.05 0.05 0.15 0.01 0.44 -0.58 0.33 -0.19 0.03 0.217 -0.22 0.29 -0.44 0.11 -0.2 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.14 0.22 -0.17 0.3 -0.44 0.33 -0.35 -0.03 0.148 -0.62 0.12 -0.47 0.38 -0.23 0.15 0.34 -0.03 -0.07 0.24 -0.04 0.35 -0.31 0.32 -0.46 -0.08 0.199 -0.31 -0.05 -0.75 0.04 0.05 -0.02 0.18 -0.2 -0.21 0.58 0.05 0.28 -0.24 0.69 -0.13 0.29 0.39
10 -0.28 0.14 -0.22 0.12 -0.11 -0.04 0.16 -0.12 -0.01 0.2 -0.14 -0.04 -0.29 0.1 -0.28 -0.07 0.13
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Log q -13.1857 -11.7013 -11.0307 -10.5081 -10.1236 -10.1236 -10.1236 -10.1236 -10.1236 S.E(Log q) 0.8883 0.8852 0.678 0.4345 0.302 0.2598 0.2871 0.3588 0.1675
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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
2 1.49 -0.977 15.69 0.29 16 1.33 -13.193 1.18 -0.387 12.35 0.32 17 1.09 -11.74 1.13 -0.311 11.43 0.35 17 0.8 -11.035 0.93 0.279 10.31 0.59 17 0.42 -10.516 1.05 -0.237 10.26 0.65 17 0.33 -10.127 0.94 0.346 9.93 0.75 17 0.25 -10.118 0.92 0.386 9.84 0.69 17 0.27 -10.19 1.71 -1.569 12.49 0.33 17 0.54 -10.01
10 0.9 0.872 9.75 0.88 17 0.15 -10.161
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 798 0.926 0 0 1 0.224 0.007
F shrinkage mean 506 0.5 0.776 0.011
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
561 0.44 0.4 2 0.91 0.01
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 1065 0.653 0.45 0.69 2 0.359 0.021
F shrinkage mean 449 0.5 0.641 0.049
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
612 0.4 0.53 3 1.323 0.036
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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 937 0.48 0.262 0.55 3 0.491 0.068
F shrinkage mean 645 0.5 0.509 0.097
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
775 0.35 0.21 4 0.62 0.081
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 957 0.33 0.2 0.61 4 0.659 0.135
F shrinkage mean 881 0.5 0.341 0.146
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
930 0.28 0.14 5 0.517 0.139
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 818 0.228 0.236 1.03 5 0.784 0.202
F shrinkage mean 749 0.5 0.216 0.218
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
802 0.21 0.19 6 0.898 0.205
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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1995
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 550 0.183 0.115 0.63 6 0.844 0.189
F shrinkage mean 499 0.5 0.156 0.207
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
542 0.17 0.1 7 0.563 0.192
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1994
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 406 0.158 0.099 0.63 7 0.872 0.198
F shrinkage mean 379 0.5 0.128 0.211
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
403 0.15 0.09 8 0.569 0.2
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1993
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 267 0.148 0.152 1.03 8 0.873 0.245
F shrinkage mean 255 0.5 0.127 0.255
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
265 0.14 0.13 9 0.923 0.246
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Functional Unit 25 – Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1992
Fleet Est Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated Sur s.e s.e Ratio Weights F FLEET 1 197 0.138 0.133 0.97 9 0.888 0.186
F shrinkage mean 185 0.5 0.112 0.197
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
196 0.13 0.12 10 0.882 0.188
1
FLEET 1
CPUE adjusted to start of year
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1986 0.0662085 0.1508831 0.1276463 0.169254 0.1322784 0.1054703 0.04524117 0.03762993 0.027131711987 0.06118169 0.1655591 0.1611828 0.1947256 0.2361829 0.1697007 0.09956991 0.05722894 0.040368721988 0.00155701 0.04506215 0.1012062 0.1303666 0.08844485 0.06900307 0.05087732 0.02759993 0.033169031989 0 0.00289926 0.02070586 0.06414751 0.1129927 0.105095 0.1088255 0.05958673 0.048148651990 0.00748349 0.03829636 0.05720552 0.08243334 0.069152 0.06135704 0.04566554 0.04327675 0.031634841991 0.02491251 0.2065608 0.2318868 0.1864111 0.1310904 0.08742467 0.0545746 0.03546284 0.022923161992 0.00385935 0.04835884 0.1469928 0.1882479 0.1585306 0.1229417 0.06886224 0.03319276 0.026348621993 0.00941435 0.0267035 0.02913086 0.06283805 0.09820622 0.08557473 0.05938181 0.02299255 0.014872681994 0.01612154 0.0689491 0.07198902 0.1009786 0.1023527 0.07444032 0.04673473 0.03088256 0.018174421995 0.01547334 0.04907421 0.08166148 0.08756129 0.1228235 0.07663987 0.05013007 0.05797448 0.03118921996 0.01240242 0.05962147 0.08316936 0.1100728 0.08029883 0.05346643 0.03463744 0.02455159 0.014535831997 0.00956397 0.0526698 0.1026715 0.1136471 0.1201508 0.06998337 0.0612338 0.03146278 0.014441231998 0.00130836 0.00920834 0.01625681 0.0200364 0.03029468 0.02837772 0.02284668 0.02003288 0.010777141999 0.00475301 0.02006979 0.04672771 0.04595127 0.07137485 0.05259059 0.04154127 0.04143475 0.018306682000 0.00214944 0.00735248 0.01602361 0.02816521 0.04075231 0.02331841 0.01545449 0.0170895 0.009127372001 0.00500022 0.02139942 0.03050149 0.06001918 0.04848303 0.03389005 0.02202009 0.02379606 0.012646242002 0.00184803 0.00717202 0.02103349 0.04428244 0.05957229 0.03704453 0.02913456 0.02456458 0.01310568
10
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Management Area Q Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 13:22
Extended Survivors Analysis
FU26+27 West GaliciaINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF2.DAT
Catch data for 15 years. 1988 to 2002. Ages 1 to 8.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Marin 1994 2002 1 7 0 1 Muros 1995 2002 1 7 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 3
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 3 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .900
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning converged after 22 iterations
1
Regression weights 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 0 0 0.011 0.045 02 0.08 0.273 0.351 0.184 0.072 0.07 0.175 0.555 0.1073 0.594 0.903 0.518 0.755 0.774 0.797 0.478 0.591 0.4024 0.93 1.063 0.466 1.02 1.05 1.163 0.744 0.502 0.4535 1.223 0.813 0.604 0.993 1.148 1.533 0.867 0.559 0.6156 1.756 0.93 0.457 0.898 1.259 1.282 1.204 0.711 0.5667 0.851 1.067 0.688 0.948 0.986 0.868 0.768 1.2 0.405
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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1994 1.21E+04 1.20E+04 7.34E+03 3.03E+03 1.12E+03 3.19E+02 1.92E+021995 1.09E+04 9.93E+03 9.04E+03 3.32E+03 9.80E+02 2.70E+02 4.52E+011996 5.31E+03 8.89E+03 6.19E+03 3.00E+03 9.38E+02 3.56E+02 8.73E+011997 3.48E+03 4.34E+03 5.12E+03 3.02E+03 1.54E+03 4.20E+02 1.84E+021998 2.69E+03 2.84E+03 2.95E+03 1.97E+03 8.91E+02 4.68E+02 1.40E+021999 3.25E+03 2.20E+03 2.17E+03 1.12E+03 5.65E+02 2.31E+02 1.09E+022000 4.21E+03 2.66E+03 1.68E+03 7.99E+02 2.85E+02 9.98E+01 5.26E+012001 1.97E+03 3.40E+03 1.83E+03 8.52E+02 3.11E+02 9.82E+01 2.45E+012002 1.22E-06 1.54E+03 1.60E+03 8.30E+02 4.22E+02 1.46E+02 3.95E+01
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.00E-06 1.13E+03 8.76E+02 4.32E+02 1.87E+02 6.77E+01
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
6.66E+03 5.79E+03 4.45E+03 2.10E+03 8.17E+02 2.79E+02 8.97E+01
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
2.9637 0.8848 0.7696 0.6919 0.6449 0.6324 0.69131
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : Marin
Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -0.8 -1.42 -0.64 -1.44 99.99 99.99 0.49 3.38 99.992 -0.94 0.41 0.42 -0.13 -0.76 -0.97 0.03 1.63 0.193 -0.21 0.21 -0.61 -0.2 0.23 0.14 -0.1 0.38 0.114 0.17 0.17 -0.81 0.02 0.38 0.48 0.24 0.04 0.125 0.43 -0.17 -0.54 0.03 0.39 0.79 0.38 -0.03 0.486 0.77 0.16 -0.6 -0.01 0.58 0.59 0.51 0.01 0.477 0.23 -0.16 -0.15 0.12 0.06 0.11 -0.01 -0.46 0
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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -14.4258 -10.2113 -8.8593 -8.8593 -8.8593 -8.8593 -8.8593 S.E(Log q) 1.8897 0.8342 0.3043 0.3805 0.4585 0.5122 0.2086
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 -1.04 -1.966 2.39 0.21 6 1.54 -14.432 0.96 0.082 10.14 0.44 9 0.86 -10.213 1.26 -1.313 9.05 0.8 9 0.37 -8.864 1.27 -1.004 9.13 0.68 9 0.47 -8.775 1.25 -0.804 9.2 0.61 9 0.52 -8.666 1.09 -0.32 8.88 0.64 9 0.49 -8.597 0.81 3.649 8.04 0.98 9 0.1 -8.891
Fleet : Muros
Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.992 99.99 0.56 2.02 -1.07 -0.04 -0.36 -0.94 99.99 99.993 99.99 0.21 0.87 0.43 0.36 0.71 0.71 -1.87 -1.34 99.99 1.61 1.16 1.5 1.14 1.86 1.66 0.32 0.385 99.99 1.33 1.16 1.33 1.76 2.31 1.17 0.93 0.256 99.99 1.79 0.12 1.35 2.11 2.73 99.99 0.1 -1.367 99.99 2.76 0.49 0.27 2.22 2.09 99.99 99.99 99.99
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q 0 -13.66 -11.5054 -11.5054 -11.5054 -11.5054 -11.5054 S.E(Log q) 0 1.141 1.0381 1.408 1.4968 1.7808 2.0796
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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 0.44 1.957 10.69 0.77 6 0.4 -13.663 0.58 1.234 10.04 0.6 8 0.58 -11.514 0.74 0.979 9.54 0.71 8 0.44 -10.315 0.75 0.827 9.3 0.66 8 0.47 -10.236 0.43 1.403 7.66 0.56 7 0.57 -10.547 -6.76 -1.073 -31.23 0.01 5 7.37 -9.951
Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
F shrinkage mea 0 0.9 0 0
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 2215 0.81 1.138 1.41 2 0.524 0.056 Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
F shrinkage mea 542 0.9 0.476 0.212
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1133 0.6 0.9 3 1.494 0.107
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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 1093 0.303 0.275 0.91 3 0.798 0.334 Muros 240 1.103 0 0 1 0.062 1.
F shrinkage me
034
a 441 0.9 0.14 0.685
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
876 0.28 0.29 5 1.043 0.402
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 545 0.253 0.096 0.38 3 0.794 0.375 Muros 194 0.761 0.691 0.91 3 0.079 0.822
F shrinkage mea 168 0.9 0.127 0.906
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
432 0.24 0.23 7 0.96 0.453
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 210 0.235 0.19 0.81 4 0.776 0.564 Muros 244 0.724 0.205 0.28 4 0.077 0.501
F shrinkage mea 88 0.9 0.147 1.032
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
187 0.23 0.16 9 0.697 0.615
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Functional Units 26–27 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 84 0.263 0.114 0.43 6 0.749 0.477 Muros 77 0.852 0.581 0.68 5 0.067 0.511
F shrinkage mea 26 0.9 0.184 1.083
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
68 0.26 0.19 12 0.711 0.566
Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 3
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 22 0.243 0.05 0.21 7 0.871 0.393 Muros 37 1.033 0.362 0.35 5 0.017 0.255
F shrinkage mea 15 0.9 0.112 0.549
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
22 0.23 0.06 13 0.267 0.405
11
Marin
CPUE adjusted to start of year
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1994 0.002952 0.171786 0.841419 0.510713 0.245277 0.097754 0.0342731995 0.001428 0.54811 1.585114 0.557407 0.1179 0.044948 0.005491996 0.001523 0.495325 0.477037 0.190206 0.077657 0.027791 0.0106381997 0.000447 0.140203 0.594274 0.438581 0.224621 0.059271 0.0294391998 0 0.048977 0.527381 0.407455 0.186235 0.118422 0.0212171999 0 0.030522 0.352512 0.257349 0.176001 0.059138 0.017212000 0.003714 0.101301 0.215354 0.143786 0.059394 0.023498 0.0074292001 0.031445 0.63962 0.381003 0.1257 0.043049 0.014057 0.0021922002 0 0.068601 0.253736 0.13281 0.097328 0.033062 0.005584
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 16:28
Extended Survivors Analysis
26+27 West Galicia FINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF3.DAT
Catch data for 15 years. 1988 to 2002. Ages 1 to 11.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Marin 1994 2002 1 10 0 1 Muros 1995 2002 2 10 0 1
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability independent of stock size for all ages
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 4
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 5 years or the 3 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = .900
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .300
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00013
Final year F values Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Iteration 2
109 0.0131 0.0913 0.1678 0.2038 0.2617 0.3201 0.3544 0.3025 0.272 0.354
Iteration 30 0.0131 0.0913 0.1678 0.2038 0.2617 0.3201 0.3544 0.3024 0.2719 0.3539
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1 0.001 0 0.002 0 0 0 0.02 0.062 0.0132 0.066 0.15 0.314 0.071 0.025 0.024 0.173 0.569 0.0913 0.141 0.397 0.253 0.24 0.167 0.142 0.194 0.28 0.1684 0.275 0.5 0.287 0.465 0.354 0.376 0.332 0.287 0.2045 0.329 0.446 0.286 0.469 0.536 0.521 0.285 0.215 0.2626 0.369 0.271 0.268 0.381 0.591 0.694 0.251 0.209 0.327 0.393 0.248 0.211 0.338 0.546 0.818 0.4 0.146 0.3548 0.57 0.257 0.225 0.327 0.593 0.83 0.347 0.173 0.3029 0.436 0.576 0.277 0.393 0.471 1.067 0.257 0.228 0.272
10 0.415 0.404 0.547 0.573 0.537 0.524 0.273 0.243 0.354
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1994 1.12E+04 9.91E+03 8.85E+03 6.33E+03 4.05E+03 2.47E+03 1.36E+03 5.96E+02 3.60E+02 2.28E+021995 8.78E+03 9.15E+03 7.59E+03 6.29E+03 3.94E+03 2.39E+03 1.40E+03 7.51E+02 2.76E+02 1.91E+021996 4.10E+03 7.18E+03 6.45E+03 4.18E+03 3.12E+03 2.06E+03 1.49E+03 8.95E+02 4.75E+02 1.27E+021997 2.74E+03 3.35E+03 4.29E+03 4.10E+03 2.57E+03 1.92E+03 1.29E+03 9.89E+02 5.85E+02 2.95E+021998 2.43E+03 2.24E+03 2.56E+03 2.77E+03 2.11E+03 1.32E+03 1.08E+03 7.55E+02 5.83E+02 3.23E+021999 3.53E+03 1.99E+03 1.79E+03 1.77E+03 1.59E+03 1.01E+03 5.96E+02 5.10E+02 3.42E+02 2.98E+022000 3.61E+03 2.89E+03 1.59E+03 1.27E+03 9.95E+02 7.73E+02 4.13E+02 2.15E+02 1.82E+02 9.63E+012001 1.88E+03 2.90E+03 1.99E+03 1.07E+03 7.47E+02 6.13E+02 4.92E+02 2.27E+02 1.25E+02 1.15E+022002 1.86E+02 1.45E+03 1.34E+03 1.23E+03 6.59E+02 4.93E+02 4.07E+02 3.48E+02 1.56E+02 8.12E+01
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 1.51E+02 1.08E+03 9.30E+02 8.22E+02 4.15E+02 2.93E+02 2.34E+02 2.11E+02 9.73E+01
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
4.44E+03 5.20E+03 4.26E+03 3.25E+03 2.16E+03 1.40E+03 8.91E+02 5.44E+02 3.12E+02 1.70E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
1.3195 0.8929 0.8218 0.7397 0.6908 0.5736 0.4999 0.5068 0.5146 0.5131
10
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : Marin
Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 -2.53 99.99 -1.25 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.5 2.42 1.32 -0.8 0.26 0.8 -0.64 -1.51 -1.42 0.42 2.07 0.73 -0.62 0.52 -0.25 -0.1 -0.23 -0.45 0.09 0.71 0.244 -0.36 0.27 -0.52 0.04 0.01 0.07 0.24 0.25 -0.085 -0.18 0.09 -0.57 -0.11 0.4 0.35 -0.01 -0.16 06 -0.06 -0.61 -0.75 -0.25 0.34 0.56 -0.16 -0.31 0.277 -0.03 -0.69 -1.05 -0.45 0.19 0.74 0.42 -0.9 0.448 0.38 -0.76 -0.96 -0.48 0.3 0.77 0.22 -0.88 -0.039 0 -0.18 -0.88 -0.29 0.06 1.02 -0.07 -0.47 -0.16
10 0.03 -0.03 -0.27 0.05 0.08 0.19 -0.09 -0.14 -0.09
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -13.1533 -10.6391 -9.942 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 -9.4891 S.E(Log q
10
) 1.9688 1.1949 0.437 0.2706 0.2915 0.4491 0.6699 0.6499 0.528 0.1404
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
1 9.4 -1.621 59.41 0.01 5 15.45 -13.152 0.89 0.19 10.36 0.3 9 1.13 -10.643 1.19 -0.696 10.31 0.67 9 0.54 -9.944 1.2 -1.237 9.82 0.85 9 0.31 -9.495 1.06 -0.366 9.63 0.84 9 0.33 -9.516 1.48 -1.294 10.78 0.53 9 0.62 -9.587 2.54 -1.559 14.13 0.13 9 1.53 -9.628 1.17 -0.344 10.22 0.39 9 0.78 -9.649 0.94 0.185 9.36 0.59 9 0.52 -9.59
10 0.83 3.175 8.8 0.98 9 0.08 -9.52
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet : Muros
Age 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 No data for this fleet at this age2 99.99 1.09 2.6 -1.17 -1.05 -0.59 -0.63 99.99 99.993 99.99 0.69 1.55 -0.15 -0.23 0.18 -0.03 99.99 -1.814 99.99 0.54 0.83 0.34 -0.05 0.31 0.76 -1.92 -0.675 99.99 1.17 0.98 1.17 0.52 1.11 1.23 -0.05 0.746 99.99 1.29 1.32 1.57 1.16 1.69 1.5 0.56 17 99.99 1.38 1.3 1.8 1.12 1.97 1.73 0.95 0.868 99.99 1.08 1.04 1.65 1.36 1.94 1.9 1.27 0.579 99.99 1.42 1.11 1.81 1.71 2.43 1.62 1.39 0.76
10 99.99 0.47 2.05 2.26 2.21 2.38 0.48 1.32 1.26
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean Log -14.9626 -12.7652 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 -12.0653 S.E(Log q
10
) 1.4873 1.0259 0.9291 1.0156 1.3956 1.5457 1.5304 1.7199 1.8448
Regression statistics :
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
2 0.34 2.83 10.48 0.83 6 0.32 -14.963 0.48 2.407 10.25 0.82 7 0.36 -12.774 0.55 1.772 10.1 0.73 8 0.44 -12.075 0.75 1.371 10.26 0.84 8 0.32 -11.216 0.77 1.322 9.93 0.85 8 0.27 -10.817 0.9 0.357 10.28 0.7 8 0.4 -10.688 1.07 -0.209 11.03 0.6 8 0.55 -10.719 0.75 1.036 9.33 0.76 8 0.38 -10.53
10 0.52 2.048 7.94 0.76 8 0.34 -10.51
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Terminal year survivor and F summaries :
Age 1 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2001
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 554 2.167 0 0 1 0.146 0. Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0
F shrinkage mean 121 0.9 0.854 0.016
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
151 0.83 1.41 2 1.696 0.013
1 Age 2 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 2000
Fleet
0040
E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 3293 1.092 0.737 0.68 2 0.379 0.031 Muros 1 0 0 0 0 0
F shrinkage mean 547 0.9 0.621 0.173
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1081 0.7 1.05 3 1.511 0.091
Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Fleet
0
E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 1324 0.431 0.34 0.79 3 0.693 0.121 Muros 152 1.1 0 0 1 0.111
F shrinkage mean 745 0.9 0.196 0.206
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
930 0.37 0.39 5 1.073 0.168
0.75
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 930 0.249 0.237 0.95 3 0.844 0.182 Muros 425 0.856 0.013 0.02 2 0.071 0.363
F shrinkage mean 422 0.9 0.085 0.365
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
822 0.23 0.19 6 0.82 0.204
Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1997
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 451 0.196 0.132 0.68 4 0.848 0.243 Muros 273 0.581 0.646 1.11 4 0.091 0.374
F shrinkage mean 246 0.9 0.061 0.408
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
415 0.18 0.16 9 0.86 0.262
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1996
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 291 0.184 0.153 0.83 5 0.845 0.322 Muros 404 0.551 0.287 0.52 5 0.09 0.242
F shrinkage mean 207 0.9 0.065 0.428
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
293 0.17 0.11 11 0.648 0.32
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1995
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 227 0.183 0.096 0.53 7 0.828 0.364 Muros 394 0.546 0.282 0.52 6 0.094 0.225
F shrinkage mean 174 0.9 0.079 0.453
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
234 0.17 0.09 14 0.543 0.354
1 Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1994
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 202 0.191 0.149 0.78 7 0.811 0.313 Muros 463 0.571 0.26 0.46 7 0.1 0.149
F shrinkage mean 128 0.9 0.09 0.457
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
211 0.18 0.13 15 0.705 0.302
Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1993
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 95 0.235 0.169 0.72 9 0.784 0.279 Muros 299 0.683 0.179 0.26 8 0.095 0.097
F shrinkage mean 48 0.9 0.121 0.487
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
97 0.22 0.15 18 0.677 0.272
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Functional Units 26–27 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 4
Year class = 1992
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Marin 42 0.213 0.089 0.42 9 0.864 0.384 Muros 195 0.763 0.135 0.18 8 0.05 0.097
F shrinkage mean 54 0.9 0.086 0.311
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
47 0.2 0.1 18 0.499 0.354
1
Marin
CPUE adjusted to start of year
AGE YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1994 0.001722 0.106627 0.230044 0.332831 0.256012 0.176756 0.099659 0.066007 0.027109 0.0178021995 0 0.282992 0.613424 0.626925 0.324856 0.098354 0.053197 0.026672 0.017497 0.0139311996 0.002285 0.384281 0.241772 0.189021 0.134276 0.073941 0.039515 0.025964 0.014971 0.0073411997 0 0.042334 0.186191 0.32259 0.174857 0.113685 0.062436 0.04644 0.033125 0.0234211998 0 0.011883 0.097322 0.210897 0.237783 0.139351 0.098617 0.076794 0.046795 0.0266141999 0 0.011472 0.055155 0.14447 0.170309 0.134297 0.094858 0.083504 0.071806 0.0273422000 0.00427 0.104924 0.084101 0.122027 0.074314 0.050024 0.047479 0.020377 0.012863 0.0066822001 0.04093 0.553142 0.194892 0.104346 0.04807 0.033971 0.0152 0.007117 0.005903 0.0076112002 0.001329 0.069604 0.082537 0.086413 0.049763 0.04889 0.0481 0.02558 0.01006 0.005612
10
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
20/03/2003 14:59
Extended Survivors Analysis
NEP MALE(000) PORTUGINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 19 years. 1984 to 2002. Ages 2 to 8.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Trawl fleet�Effo 1988 2002 2 7 0 1 Summer survey 1997 2002 2 7 0.41 0.47
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 3
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 3
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 6
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 3 years or the 2 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 2.000
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .500
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00032
Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 Iteration 29 0.0688 0.6299 0.8435 0.957 1.0054 0.8785 Iteration 30 0.0688 0.6299 0.8435 0.9569 1.0053 0.8784
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0.331 0.207 0.017 0.067 0.084 0.086 0.077 0.099 0.049 0.0693 1.044 0.545 0.553 0.44 0.388 0.316 0.315 0.298 0.381 0.634 0.855 0.717 1.128 0.47 0.246 0.272 0.319 0.24 0.565 0.8435 0.979 1.154 0.496 0.403 0.236 0.311 0.425 0.311 0.61 0.9576 0.507 1.22 0.357 0.227 0.113 0.351 0.526 0.422 0.584 1.0057 0.528 0.515 0.37 0.354 0.266 0.45 0.33 0.678 0.879 0.878
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7
1993 8.05E+03 6.48E+03 2.26E+03 9.87E+02 3.92E+02 1.75E+021994 4.84E+03 4.28E+03 1.69E+03 7.11E+02 2.75E+02 1.75E+021995 3.93E+03 2.92E+03 1.84E+03 6.11E+02 1.66E+02 6.01E+011996 6.35E+03 2.86E+03 1.24E+03 4.41E+02 2.76E+02 8.60E+011997 7.67E+03 4.40E+03 1.37E+03 5.75E+02 2.19E+02 1.63E+021998 7.21E+03 5.22E+03 2.21E+03 7.92E+02 3.37E+02 1.45E+021999 6.16E+03 4.90E+03 2.82E+03 1.25E+03 4.30E+02 1.76E+022000 6.73E+03 4.22E+03 2.65E+03 1.52E+03 6.04E+02 1.88E+022001 6.15E+03 4.52E+03 2.32E+03 1.54E+03 8.25E+02 2.93E+022002 6.33E+03 4.34E+03 2.29E+03 9.77E+02 6.22E+02 3.41E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 4.38E+03 1.71E+03 7.28E+02 2.78E+02 1.69E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
7.51E+03 5.06E+03 2.43E+03 1.06E+03 4.36E+02 1.88E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.4068 0.3938 0.4423 0.5242 0.5317 0.53071
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : Trawl fleet�Effort d
Age 1988 1989 1990 1991 19922 -0.31 -0.21 -0.13 0.11 0.113 -0.02 -0.42 -0.12 0.08 0.264 -0.23 0.11 0.16 0.16 0.285 -0.25 0.58 -0.13 0.46 0.496 -0.28 0.83 -0.57 0.53 0.337 -0.05 0.33 -0.18 0.29 -0.01
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0.36 0.56 -0.38 0.02 0.11 -0.06 0.13 0.05 -0.3 -0.243 0.62 0.23 0.18 0.21 0.35 -0.37 -0.04 -0.41 -0.42 -0.094 0.32 0.39 0.77 0.17 -0.21 -0.62 -0.14 -0.73 -0.13 0.095 0.36 0.77 -0.12 -0.07 -0.34 -0.58 0.06 -0.56 -0.15 0.126 -0.12 0.99 -0.29 -0.48 -0.91 -0.29 0.44 -0.09 -0.03 0.337 -0.08 0.14 -0.25 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 -0.02 0.37 0.38 0.2
Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -9.1885 -9.0828 -8.9958 -9.1583 -9.1583 S.E(Log q) 0.3233 0.4145 0.414 0.5255 0.2186
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
2 0.42 2.603 9.65 0.67 15 0.28 -10.7 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 1.1 -0.321 9.25 0.54 15 0.37 -9.194 1.09 -0.269 9.2 0.49 15 0.47 -9.085 0.88 0.563 8.74 0.68 15 0.38 -96 0.74 1.19 8.35 0.68 15 0.38 -9.167 0.79 2.94 8.27 0.95 15 0.12 -9.091
Fleet : Summer surveys - num
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.08 0.16 99.99 -0.08 0 03 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.01 0.59 99.99 -0.19 -0.81 0.424 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.46 0.04 99.99 -0.45 -0.56 0.545 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.81 0.07 99.99 -1.02 -0.43 0.66 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.75 0.32 99.99 -0.83 -0.6 0.47 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.42 0.39 99.99 -0.75 -0.12 0.64
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Log q -6.6109 -5.7125 -5.4493 -5.261 -5.261 S.E(Log q) 0.5563 0.5045 0.751 0.6814 0.5764
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
2 0.22 1.217 8.7 0.45 5 0.12 -8.24 Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
3 0.25 0.838 7.96 0.3 5 0.15 -6.614 -4.92 -1.285 17.25 0.02 5 2.3 -5.715 -1.95 -2.823 9.8 0.24 5 0.88 -5.456 25.35 -1.968 -16.63 0 5 13.12 -5.267 0.85 0.196 5.18 0.38 5 0.55 -5.151
Fleet disaggregated estimates of survivors :
Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 2 Survivors 3434 Raw Weights 3.734
Summer surveys - num Age 2 Survivors 4370 Raw Weights 3.734
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 3434 0.5 0 0 1 0.264 0.087 Summer surveys - num 4370 0.5 0 0 1 0.264 0.069
P shrinkage mean 5062 0.39 0.455 0.06
F shrinkage mean 3984 2 0.018 0.075
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
4377 0.26 0.12 4 0.444 0.069
1 Age 3 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1999
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 3 2 Survivors 1557 1271 Raw Weights 2.131 2.029
Summer surveys - num Age 3 2 Survivors 2604 1720 Raw Weights 1.431 2.029
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 1410 0.354 0.101 0.29 2 0.529 0.725 Summer surveys - num 2042 0.387 0.204 0.53 2 0.44 0.551
F shrinkage mean 3778 2 0.032 0.335
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1712 0.26 0.14 5 0.535 0.63
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 4 3 2 Survivors 794 480 765 Raw Weights 1.721 1.175 1.062
Summer surveys - num Age 4 3 2 Survivors 1244 323 672 Raw Weights 1.405 0.789 1.062
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 677 0.296 0.158 0.54 3 0.53 0.886 Summer surveys - num 734 0.325 0.378 1.16 3 0.436 0.839
F shrinkage mean 2095 2 0.033 0.379
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
728 0.22 0.18 7 0.809 0.843
1 Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 314 243 185 317 Raw Weights 1.536 0.873 0.646 0.593
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Summer surveys - num Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 506 159 229 0 Raw Weights 0.566 0.713 0.434 0
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 269 0.271 0.118 0.44 4 0.65 0.976 Summer surveys - num 256 0.389 0.354 0.91 3 0.305 1.009
F shrinkage mean 776 2 0.045 0.454
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
278 0.23 0.15 8 0.648 0.957
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 235 146 81 162 159 Raw Weights 1.221 0.795 0.624 0.452 0.409
Summer surveys - num Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 250 110 107 0 198 Raw Weights 0.655 0.293 0.509 0 0.409
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 159 0.255 0.184 0.72 5 0.623 1.043 Summer surveys - num 166 0.347 0.22 0.63 4 0.332 1.015
F shrinkage mean 431 2 0.045 0.517
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
169 0.22 0.14 10 0.649 1.005
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Functional Units 28–29 Males Tuning Data Continued. Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 6
Year class = 1995
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 128 102 60 92 73 117 Raw Weights 1.662 0.773 0.678 0.489 0.352 0.316
Summer surveys - num Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 199 58 38 0 190 96 Raw Weights 1.039 0.415 0.25 0 0.236 0.316
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 100 0.246 0.124 0.51 6 0.63 0.91 Summer surveys - num 119 0.348 0.313 0.9 5 0.333 0.808
F shrinkage mean 86 2 0.037 0.999
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
105 0.21 0.13 12 0.63 0.878
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Lowestoft VPA Version 3.1
21/03/2003 11:07
Extended Survivors Analysis
NEP FEMALE(000) PORTINDEX FILE
CPUE data from file TUNEFF.DAT
Catch data for 19 years. 1984 to 2002. Ages 2 to 13.
Fleet Firs Last First Last Alpha Beta year year age age Trawl fleet�E 1988 2002 2 12 0 1 Summer surv 1997 2002 2 12 0.41 0.47
Time series weights :
Tapered time weighting applied Power = 3 over 20 years
Catchability analysis :
Catchability dependent on stock size for ages < 4
Regression type = C Minimum of 5 points used for regression Survivor estimates shrunk to the population mean for ages < 4
Catchability independent of age for ages >= 8
Terminal population estimation :
Survivor estimates shrunk towards the mean F of the final 3 years or the 5 oldest ages.
S.E. of the mean to which the estimates are shrunk = 2.000
Minimum standard error for population estimates derived from each fleet = .500
Prior weighting not applied
Tuning had not converged after 30 iterations
Total absolute residual between iterations 29 and 30 = .00462
Final year F values Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Iteration 29 0.0617 0.1048 0.2725 0.3948 0.4688 0.3898 0.3499 0.3106 0.3678 0.3128 Iteration 30 0.0616 0.1048 0.2722 0.3944 0.4682 0.3893 0.3494 0.3101 0.3672 0.3123
Age 12 Iteration 29 0.3387 Iteration 30 0.338
11
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Regression weights 0.751 0.82 0.877 0.921 0.954 0.976 0.99 0.997 1 1
Fishing mortalities Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
2 0.268 0.154 0.016 0.029 0.1 0.1 0.093 0.1 0.044 0.0623 0.248 0.197 0.104 0.056 0.162 0.106 0.17 0.087 0.094 0.1054 0.21 0.159 0.251 0.084 0.168 0.127 0.171 0.145 0.143 0.2725 0.165 0.155 0.5 0.159 0.141 0.136 0.235 0.166 0.171 0.3946 0.135 0.162 0.65 0.253 0.137 0.16 0.263 0.208 0.153 0.4687 0.155 0.103 0.377 0.176 0.058 0.086 0.25 0.146 0.169 0.3898 0.227 0.158 0.644 0.221 0.057 0.162 0.2 0.16 0.256 0.3499 0.273 0.213 0.542 0.325 0.063 0.228 0.203 0.183 0.262 0.31
10 0.232 0.118 0.318 0.212 0.036 0.18 0.15 0.166 0.215 0.36711 0.361 0.197 0.402 0.43 0.07 0.274 0.127 0.188 0.214 0.31212 0.28 0.161 0.239 0.172 0.05 0.206 0.162 0.25 0.256 0.338
1 XSA population numbers (Thousands)
AGE YEAR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1993 9.42E+03 8.52E+03 5.79E+03 3.14E+03 2.42E+03 1.68E+03 9.29E+02 6.50E+02 3.13E+02 1.77E+021994 7.04E+03 5.90E+03 5.45E+03 3.84E+03 2.18E+03 1.73E+03 1.18E+03 6.06E+02 4.05E+02 2.03E+021995 6.23E+03 4.94E+03 3.97E+03 3.80E+03 2.69E+03 1.52E+03 1.28E+03 8.25E+02 4.01E+02 2.94E+021996 7.73E+03 5.02E+03 3.65E+03 2.53E+03 1.89E+03 1.15E+03 8.51E+02 5.50E+02 3.93E+02 2.39E+021997 7.69E+03 6.14E+03 3.89E+03 2.75E+03 1.77E+03 1.20E+03 7.91E+02 5.59E+02 3.25E+02 2.60E+021998 6.63E+03 5.70E+03 4.28E+03 2.69E+03 1.96E+03 1.26E+03 9.28E+02 6.11E+02 4.30E+02 2.57E+021999 6.95E+03 4.92E+03 4.20E+03 3.09E+03 1.92E+03 1.36E+03 9.47E+02 6.46E+02 3.99E+02 2.94E+022000 7.24E+03 5.19E+03 3.39E+03 2.90E+03 2.00E+03 1.21E+03 8.69E+02 6.35E+02 4.31E+02 2.81E+022001 7.23E+03 5.37E+03 3.89E+03 2.40E+03 2.01E+03 1.33E+03 8.56E+02 6.06E+02 4.33E+02 2.99E+022002 7.61E+03 5.67E+03 4.00E+03 2.76E+03 1.66E+03 1.41E+03 9.19E+02 5.43E+02 3.82E+02 2.86E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
0.00E+00 5.86E+03 4.18E+03 2.49E+03 1.53E+03 8.51E+02 7.84E+02 5.31E+02 3.26E+02 2.17E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
8.33E+03 6.12E+03 4.41E+03 3.09E+03 2.09E+03 1.39E+03 9.40E+02 6.09E+02 3.89E+02 2.62E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.2694 0.2152 0.1882 0.1709 0.1534 0.142 0.1549 0.1689 0.1723 0.2053
11
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. AGE YEAR 12
1993 2.00E+021994 1.01E+021995 1.37E+021996 1.61E+021997 1.27E+021998 1.99E+021999 1.60E+022000 2.12E+022001 1.91E+022002 1.98E+02
Estimated population abundance at 1st Jan 2003
1.72E+02
Taper weighted geometric mean of the VPA populations:
1.64E+02
Standard error of the weighted Log(VPA populations) :
0.27831
Log catchability residuals.
Fleet : Trawl fleet�Effort d
Age 1988 1989 1990 1991 19922 -0.01 0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.083 0.07 -0.16 -0.03 0.1 -0.094 0.56 0.13 0.24 0.02 0.035 0.52 0.43 0.21 -0.46 -0.326 0.28 0.45 -0.31 -0.74 -0.127 0.48 0.69 0.41 -0.36 0.238 0.21 0.1 0.47 0 -0.29 -0.49 0.81 0.33 0.04 -0.1
10 -0.65 0.42 0.24 -0.16 -0.2811 -0.54 0.47 -0.16 -0.69 -0.2112 -0.03 0.38 0.03 0.03 0.17
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 0.2 0.29 -0.4 -0.26 0.24 0.17 0.22 0.12 -0.24 -0.213 0.04 0.23 -0.02 -0.2 0.34 -0.07 0.39 -0.11 -0.21 -0.274 -0.01 -0.04 0.35 -0.49 0.47 -0.33 0.31 -0.17 -0.44 0.035 -0.41 -0.23 0.87 -0.01 0.13 -0.41 0.46 -0.2 -0.42 0.246 -0.69 -0.26 1.05 0.37 0.02 -0.33 0.5 -0.05 -0.61 0.337 -0.34 -0.5 0.73 0.23 -0.61 -0.72 0.67 -0.18 -0.29 0.378 -0.14 -0.26 1.08 0.27 -0.82 -0.28 0.26 -0.28 -0.06 0.079 0.04 0.04 0.91 0.66 -0.72 0.06 0.27 -0.15 -0.04 -0.05
10 -0.12 -0.55 0.38 0.23 -1.28 -0.18 -0.03 -0.24 -0.24 0.1211 0.32 -0.03 0.61 0.93 -0.61 0.24 -0.2 -0.12 -0.24 -0.0412 0.07 -0.23 0.09 0.02 -0.95 -0.05 0.04 0.16 -0.06 0.04
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mean Log q -10.1374 -9.9795 -9.9011 -10.1198 -9.9332 -9.9332 -9.9332 -9.9332 -9.9332 S.E(Log q) 0.3178 0.4167 0.514 0.5126 0.451 0.4433 0.477 0.4557 0.3105
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
2 0.33 2.315 9.6 0.55 15 0.24 -10.793 0.48 1.527 9.54 0.48 15 0.23 -10.43
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
4 0.68 0.889 9.57 0.44 15 0.22 -10.145 0.56 1.017 9.12 0.35 15 0.23 -9.986 0.85 0.149 9.57 0.1 15 0.46 -9.97 0.65 0.455 9.11 0.15 15 0.35 -10.128 0.41 1.716 8.12 0.47 15 0.17 -9.939 0.54 1.118 8.26 0.38 15 0.23 -9.83
10 0.54 1.066 8.21 0.36 15 0.24 -10.111 1.21 -0.228 10.85 0.11 15 0.58 -9.9312 0.64 1.591 8.22 0.67 15 0.18 -9.981
Fleet : Summer surveys - num
Age 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.07 -0.05 99.99 0.07 0.06 -0.023 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.17 0.32 99.99 -0.04 -0.14 0.034 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.17 0.92 99.99 -0.56 -0.7 0.195 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 -0.15 0.66 99.99 -0.3 -0.69 0.496 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.19 0.1 99.99 -0.1 -1.03 0.847 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.41 0.05 99.99 -0.06 -0.84 0.458 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 0.48 -0.02 99.99 -0.36 -0.51 0.429 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 1.08 0.2 99.99 -0.03 -0.24 0.87
10 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 1.65 0.15 99.99 0.06 -0.01 1.0811 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 1.47 0.54 99.99 0.31 -0.25 1.1812 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 2.04 0.16 99.99 0.4 0.04 1.52
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Mean log catchability and standard error of ages with catchability independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time
Age 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Mean Log q -7.6378 -6.927 -6.5289 -6.1932 -5.7825 -5.7825 -5.7825 -5.7825 -5.7825 S.E(Log q) 0.6597 0.5644 0.6813 0.5224 0.4457 0.7073 0.9814 0.9978 1.2833
Regression statistics :
Ages with q dependent on year class strength
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Log q
2 -0.12 -1.752 8.95 0.45 5 0.07 -8.433 0.29 0.401 8.51 0.1 5 0.23 -8.22
Ages with q independent of year class strength and constant w.r.t. time.
Age Slope t-value Intercept RSquare No Pts Reg s.e Mean Q
4 0.14 2.024 8.17 0.66 5 0.07 -7.645 0.22 0.827 7.68 0.28 5 0.13 -6.936 -0.18 -2.42 7.72 0.59 5 0.08 -6.537 2.1 -0.117 5.13 0 5 1.27 -6.198 4.88 -0.196 1.95 0 5 2.5 -5.789 -0.15 -3.164 6.53 0.72 5 0.05 -5.41
10 -0.21 -8.041 6.15 0.94 5 0.04 -5.211 -0.2 -1.159 5.72 0.24 5 0.13 -5.1412 -0.46 -1.802 5.32 0.34 5 0.32 -4.961
Fleet disaggregated estimates of survivors :
Age 2 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 2000
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 2 Survivors 4727 Raw Weights 3.761
12
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Summer surveys - num Age 2 Survivors 5769 Raw Weights 3.761
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 4727 0.5 0 0 1 0.128 0.076 Summer surveys - num 5769 0.5 0 0 1 0.128 0.063
P shrinkage mean 6124 0.22 0.735 0.059
F shrinkage mean 4537 2 0.009 0.079
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
5864 0.18 0.08 4 0.461 0.062
1 Age 3 Catchability dependent on age and year class strength
Year class = 1999
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 3 2 Survivors 3176 3301 Raw Weights 3.602 3.446
Summer surveys - num Age 3 2 Survivors 4287 4442 Raw Weights 3.602 3.446
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 3236 0.354 0.019 0.05 2 0.166 0.133 Summer surveys - num 4362 0.354 0.018 0.05 2 0.166 0.101
P shrinkage mean 4415 0.19 0.663 0.099
F shrinkage mean 3698 2 0.006 0.118
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
4181 0.15 0.07 6 0.468 0.105
1 Age 4 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1998
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 4 3 2 Survivors 2564 2015 2803 Raw Weights 3.047 2.771 2.502
Summer surveys - num Age 4 3 2 Survivors 3027 2160 2678 Raw Weights 1.455 2.771 2.502
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 2431 0.29 0.097 0.34 3 0.544 0.278 Summer surveys - num 2517 0.319 0.096 0.3 3 0.44 0.27
F shrinkage mean 4697 2 0.016 0.154
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
2495 0.21 0.07 7 0.305 0.272
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 5 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1997
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1937 981 1363 1910 Raw Weights 2.696 2.336 2.136 1.933
Summer surveys - num Age 5 4 3 2 Survivors 2485 756 1469 0 Raw Weights 1.759 1.116 2.136 0
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 1493 0.252 0.163 0.65 4 0.634 0.401 Summer surveys - num 1524 0.345 0.311 0.9 3 0.349 0.395
F shrinkage mean 3494 2 0.017 0.191
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
1526 0.2 0.14 8 0.673 0.394
1 Age 6 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1996
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1184 560 715 1257 1009 Raw Weights 2.183 2.109 1.82 1.524 1.361
Summer surveys - num Age 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1978 424 484 0 805 Raw Weights 1.121 1.376 0.869 0 1.361
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 884 0.232 0.16 0.69 5 0.644 0.454 Summer surveys - num 753 0.321 0.344 1.07 4 0.338 0.515
F shrinkage mean 2187 2 0.018 0.209
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
851 0.19 0.15 10 0.807 0.468
1 Age 7 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1995
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1130 425 642 1063 728 997 Raw Weights 2.375 2.027 1.965 1.644 1.459 1.29
Summer surveys - num Age 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 1231 281 583 0 1079 733 Raw Weights 2.064 1.041 1.282 0 1.459 1.29
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 779 0.216 0.161 0.74 6 0.593 0.391 Summer surveys - num 769 0.267 0.25 0.94 5 0.393 0.395
F shrinkage mean 1788 2 0.014 0.189
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
784 0.17 0.13 12 0.771 0.389
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 8 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and dependent on age
Year class = 1994
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 570 396 504 843 383 745 411 Raw Weights 2.82 2.087 1.682 1.515 1.316 1.094 1.026
Summer surveys - num Age 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 811 230 479 0 1337 449 0 Raw Weights 2.82 1.813 0.864 0 0.629 1.094 0
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 526 0.206 0.111 0.54 7 0.607 0.352 Summer surveys - num 530 0.277 0.286 1.03 5 0.38 0.35
F shrinkage mean 968 2 0.013 0.207
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
531 0.17 0.12 13 0.726 0.349
1 Age 9 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8
Year class = 1993
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 311 306 272 536 217 519 267 218 Raw Weights 2.934 2.269 1.713 1.301 1.284 1.061 0.969 0.908
Summer surveys - num Age 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 780 196 307 0 629 388 0 0 Raw Weights 1.219 2.269 1.489 0 0.837 0.507 0 0
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 312 0.197 0.107 0.55 8 0.654 0.322 Summer surveys - num 351 0.289 0.271 0.94 5 0.333 0.291
F shrinkage mean 489 2 0.013 0.217
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
326 0.16 0.11 14 0.673 0.31
1 Age 10 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8
Year class = 1992
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 245 208 164 422 156 247 132 213 290 Raw Weights 2.771 2.132 1.812 1.228 1.026 0.999 0.888 0.762 0.611
Summer surveys - num Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 638 171 152 0 240 187 0 0 0 Raw Weights 0.598 0.886 1.812 0 0.527 0.652 0 0 0
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 218 0.19 0.107 0.57 9 0.721 0.365 Summer surveys - num 205 0.319 0.234 0.73 5 0.264 0.385
F shrinkage mean 495 2 0.015 0.178
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
217 0.16 0.1 15 0.602 0.367
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 11 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8
Year class = 1991
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 11 Survivors 165 Raw Weights 2.927
Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 135 148 222 83 175 169 242 216 209 Raw Weights 2.361 1.962 1.594 1.263 1.071 1.013 0.75 0.576 0.403
Summer surveys - num Age 11 Survivors 560 Raw Weights 0.611
Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 170 166 0 181 208 0 0 0 0 Raw Weights 0.509 0.815 0 1.098 0.55 0 0 0 0
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 160 0.184 0.09 0.49 10 0.784 0.332 Summer surveys - num 218 0.367 0.217 0.59 5 0.202 0.253
F shrinkage mean 324 2 0.014 0.177
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
172 0.16 0.09 16 0.536 0.312
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Functional Units 28–29 Females Tuning Data Continued. Age 12 Catchability constant w.r.t. time and age (fixed at the value for age) 8
Year class = 1990
Trawl fleet�Effort d Age 12 11 Survivors 120 91 Raw Weights 2.853 2.302
Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 91 152 87 63 168 276 111 120 107 Raw Weights 1.944 1.575 1.32 1.067 0.796 0.527 0.42 0.3 0.208
Summer surveys - num Age 12 11 Survivors 528 90 Raw Weights 0.36 0.48
Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Survivors 122 0 114 174 0 0 0 0 0 Raw Weights 0.419 0 1.32 0.927 0 0 0 0 0
Fleet E Int Ext Var N Scaled Estimated S s.e s.e Ratio Weights F Trawl fleet�Effort d 109 0.185 0.1 0.54 11 0.78 0.355 Summer surveys - num 146 0.347 0.243 0.7 5 0.205 0.277
F shrinkage mean 112 2 0.015 0.348
Weighted prediction :
Survivors Int Ext N Var F at end of year s.e s.e Ratio
116 0.16 0.09 17 0.573 0.338
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