workshop on energy balance and planning models energy statistics gabriel hernandez energy...
TRANSCRIPT
WORKSHOP ON ENERGY BALANCE AND PLANNING MODELS
ENERGY STATISTICS
GABRIEL HERNANDEZ
Energy Information Management and Training Coordinator
December 9-12, 2013
Kingston, JAMAICA
ENERGY STATISTICS
ENERGY SUPPLYINFORMATION ON SUPPLY CAN BE FOUND IN COMPANIES TRADING ENERGY
Producers
Importers / Exporters
Transporters
Distributors
Oil products, natural gas, coal, electricity
Firewood, charcoal
ENERGY DEMAND
THE ENGINE OF THE ENERGY SECTOR
1
Distributors
Statistical institution
Associations of final consumers
Consumers
ENERGY STATISTICS
ENERGY DEMAND
1
Amount of energy used
Location
Type of fuel
End-use technology
How they are used
ENERGY STATISTICS
ENERGY DEMAND ESTIMATION
2
ENERGY DEMAND
• UNDERSTANDING THE ENERGY DEMAND
Lifestyle
Factors determining the demand of energy services
Characteristics and technological developments
Institutional frameworks
Interrelationship between the above
3
ENERGY DEMAND
• PURPOSE OF MODULE
Characteristics of energy demand in economic sectors: uses, processes, equipment, frequency, performance, efficiency
Methodologies for quantifying energy consumption: Energy Balance and planning
Additional sources of information
Procedures and tools for estimating
4
ENERGY DEMAND
• FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
It is the last use given to energy sources to produce a good or to meet a need
Where is energy consumed?
Sectors: Transport Industrial Residential Public and Commercial Services Agriculture Fishing and Mining Construction and Other Energy Sector (No Energy)
ENERGY DEMAND
• FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
DRIVING FORCE
EngineMechanical
Energy
Energy Transmission
FEMovement
Processes:
CombustionThermalEnergy
Heat transferFE Increase
temperature
HEAT
6
ENERGY DEMAND
• FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Processes: LIGHTING
Light bulb.Radiation
LightingEF
OTHER
DevicesEE
Operation Electronic devices EF
Electrochemical Processes
7
ENERGY DEMAND
• FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Combustion
ThermalEnergy Boiler
FE
Increase temperature
Steam
Engine
Heat Transfer
MechanicalEnergy
Movement
EE
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Activities of freight and transportation of passengers
H Transportation and storage491Transport via railways492Other land transport
4921Urban and suburban passenger land transport4922Other passenger land transport4923Freight transport by road
50Water transport501Sea and coastal water transport
5011Sea and coastal passenger water transport5012Sea and coastal freight water transport
502Inland water transport5021Inland passenger water transport5022Inland freight water transport
51Air transport511Passenger air transport512Freight air transport
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Coverage: National and international transport service
Observed: Vehicle
CLASSIFICATION
• Mode: Road, Rail, Air, River, Sea
• Carried Subject: Passenger, freight
• Type of Service: Public, Private, Official
• Nature of Service: Urban, Interurban, National, international
• Vehicle Type: Cars, motorcycles, trucks, jeeps, buses and subways, trucks, trains, boats, planes.
Sources / footnotes
TRANSPORT SECTOR – SUGGESTED CLASSIFICATION
Final Energy Consumption
Road
Urban Private Passenger
Interurban Private PassengerUrban Public PassengerInterurban Public PassengerUrban loadInterurban load
AirFluvialSea
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
ENERGY DEMAND
C(f)= Consumption of the energy product f
Ce(f) = Specific consumption of f
ENERGY CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION FOR ROAD MODE
)(;)()( fQRfcQfC e
R = Traveled distance
Q = Vehicle fleet
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
ENERGY DEMAND
Qt=vehicle fleet of the year t
VEHICLE FLEET
tttt SAQQ 1
Qt-1=vehicle fleet from previous yearAt=additions to vehicle fleet to the year tSt=Vehicles leaving the vehicle fleet of the year t
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
ENERGY DEMAND
VEHICLE FLEET
nntttott pApApApAQ ....2211
St data doesn’t exist
At=additions to the vehicle fleet of the
yeartPn= Probability of not leaving the park a vehicle of n years
old
n
iiitt pAQ
Sources / footnotes
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
ENERGY DEMAND
VEHICLE FLEET
bxeaxF
1
1)(
Probability of leaving the vehicle fleet in terms of age
x=age of the vehicleProbability of remaining in the vehicle fleet one more year
)(1)( xFxp
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Ce(f) = Specific consumption of the source f
CALCULATION OF THE SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION(Km/gal)
)(;)()( fQRfcQfC e
Engine size, distance, urban or suburban route, age, fuel, road conditions, height above sea level
Cile edc
Cile exbc )ln(
Sources / footnotes
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
CALCULATION OF THE SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION(Km/gal)
TYPE A BRAND PEUGEOT MODEL 206YEAR 2003 FUEL G Cylinder Capacity 1400
LOAD DATE LOADED GALLONS Read Km RouteConsumption Km/gal Days of use
09-ago 8.5 528617-ago 12.3 5679 393 31.95 823-ago 6.9 5904 225 32.61 628-ago 7.7 6148 244 31.69 504-sep 13.1 6515 367 28.02 7
TOTAL 40 1229 1229 30.73
SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION REPORT
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Ru=Distance traveled in urban areas; Ri= Distance traveled in interurban areas
CALCULATION OF THE DISTANCE TRAVELED
iu RRR
R: Total distance traveled / Years of Service: Average annual travel survey
QRVKm
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
CALCULATION OF THE DISTANCE TRAVELED
i
iiiii lvR 11
Ri: Count of vehicles between stations multiplied by the distance between counting stations
Sources / footnotes
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION
VEHICLE
U R B A N INTERUBAN
GAL/1000Km GAL/1000Km
CeDO CeGM Km/Año CeDO CeGM Km/Year
Car 34.4 35.7 6000.0 30.0 28.5 6000.0
Pick Up 49.3 49.5 8500.0 38.3 40.3 5200.0
Bus 128.0 145.0 48500.0 110.0 128.0 50000.0
Truck 75.7 72.0 41500.0 132.0 150.0 55000.0
Motorcycle 19.2 8500.0 19.2 8500.0
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION
Railway:
CONSUMPTION = (DO & C) sold to transport companies
Yk: Yearly km.
Ocean:
CONSUMPTION = (DO, FO & C) sold to companies
Air:
CONSUMPTION = AV GAS & JP sold
River:
CONSUMPTION=Q * c * Yk
Sources / footnotes
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Coverage: Transform raw materials.
Observed: Industrial facilities
Classification Criteria: ISIC
Sources / footnotes
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR – SUGGESTED CLASIFICATION
Final Energy Consumption
ISIC Sector 31 Food, beverages, tobacco 32 Textile, confection, footgear y leather 33 Timber y furnishing 34 Paper & printing 35 Chemical3692 Cement 36 Construction materials (ex. Cement) 37 Metals38/39 Machinery, equipment & others
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION
Survey
• Survey selection• Information to compile• Economic data• Energy purchases• Equipment Characteristics • Fuel consumption by use (Balance)
Fuel use= consumption by use+Losses+Stock
29
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
It corresponds to the secondary sector of the economy, which transforms raw materials into finished products
The studies of energy in the Industrial Sector aims to determine the characteristics and conditions of the processes in which energy is used to establish and have the information necessary for the formulation of energy efficiency programs, substitution and control on environmental impact .
The determination of energy destination in the industry are performed by two procedures. The first one, tracks down each energy source by identifying the quantities consumed in each process. The second procedure examines each process and quantified the amount of energy used, as well as useful energy absorbed.
30
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
In either case we applied the energy balance concept, where the origin and destiny of energy, the entire industrial facility or each processes of the equipment used were considered as the primary unit of observation.
In some cases direct measurements may be required for certain periods of time on the amount of energy used in each process or each equipment.
Similarly, to establish useful power it will be necessary to measure the characteristics of the process or products obtained or generated from intermediate energy.
31
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
In some countries a significant part of total energy consumption in the industry can be identified from the reports of distributing electricity companies or fuel companies.
Most statistical agencies of countries make an annual industry survey through which values and quantities of energy purchased by industrial establishments are determined .
In cases where such information is available, there is a consumption breakdown per use or equipment required from a survey or field study.
32
ENERGY DEMANDINDUSTRIAL SECTOR
33
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
34
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
35
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Establishment: The combination of activities and resources that independently make a company or part of a company, to produce the most homogeneous group of manufactured goods at a location or geographical area and which separate records are kept on materials, labor and other physical resources used in the production process.
OBSERVATION UNIT:
36
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Universe: Secondary sector of the economy
Observation Unit: Industrial establishments
Population characteristics: Number of establishments, regional distribution, production, gross value added, employees, production
Direct Information Sources: Energy trading companies, economic census, manufacturing surveys, previous studies,
Indirect or additional information Sources: Census, surveys, reports of associations
Energy used: EE, FW, NG, derivatives, biomass, coal, coke, other
37
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Procedures to determine the final consumption: Surveys, measurements,mathematical models
Variables required for consumption calculation: Facilities, physical production, number of employees, purchases of energy
Characteristics that change the energy consumption: Subsector, technology,processes, production, operation and maintenance, fuel
Types and forms of energy use: For processes and equipment
Characteristics of energy based technologies:How the energy is used, performance.
38
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Understanding the energy demand in the industrial sector
Characteristics of the Universe: total facilities, production, value of production
Observation unit : Each facility, each unit of product produced
What is to be observed or measured: energy consumptionBy FacilityBy ProcessBy EquipmentBy unit producedBy unit of gross added value
39
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Processes and equipment in the Industrial Sector
Heat: Boilers, Water heaters, furnaces, stovesDriving Force : Engines, Electromechanical, refrigerators, air
conditioning, pumpsLighting : Light bulbs, reflectorsOther : Electrolysis, Office Equipment
40
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Final energy consumption
)()()( OUNOUCINDC
)
,,,Pr,,(,)()()( otherCoalGNodsBiomassEEjOUNOUCINDCj
j
Total final consumption
Total final consumption per source
energyjusesiOUNOUCINDCi j
ji ,;)()()( ,
Total final consumption per energy and use
41
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
),,Pr,,(,)()()( OtherCoaloductsBiomassEEjUONUOCINDCj
j
Total final consumption per energy product
Appropriate OU: Industrial Establishment
Observation and measurement of Cj(UO):
EE, NG: Sheet
Products: Purchases
FW, CH: Measurement
C, CK: Measurement
42
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
energyjusesiUONUOCINDCi j
ji ,;)()()( ,
Total final consumption per energy and use
Appropriate OU: Industrial Establishment
Observation and measurement of Ci,j(UO):
EE: Engines, lighting, electromechanical, electronic, heating, refrigeration, air conditioning
NG, products, biomass, C, CK: Boilers, cooking, water heating,Heating, direct heat
FORM
Sources / footnotes
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Coverage: Energy consumption in households
Observed: Household
Classification criteria: AreaIncome
Suggested classification: Urban areaRural area
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
USES
Heat: Direct HeatMovement: Mechanical force, refrigerationLightingOthers: Electronic process
EQUIPMENT
Heat: Water heater, furnaces, stovesMovement: laundry, refrigerators, Air ConditionerLighting: bulbsOthers: Electronic equipment
Sources / footnotes
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Electricity consumption:
Ci = Wpi * Hi * CFi
CF = Wr / Wp (Correction factor) Wr= Cr / t (Real potential) uses
CEE = Wpi * Hi * CFi i=1
Correction Factors:
Air Conditioner 0.90Lighting 0.94Iron 0.28Refrigerator 0.31Stove 0.41Water Heater 0.75Oven 0.48Mech. equipments 0.51Radio electronics 0.55
Sources / footnotes
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Fuel Consumption: NG, LPG, KE, FW:
Cj = Hh * %j * Ce(v)
Specific Consumptions by HouseholdCooking:
LPG 165 gal/yearNG 564 m3/yearFW 2090 Kg/yearKE 117 gal/year
Water Heater:LPG 140 gal/year
Sources / footnotes
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
Final Energy Consumption
Coverage: Production activities on farms, fishing, and mining projects.
Agro food primary production and natural products.
Fishing: Catch and fish processing
Mining: Extraction, processing, smelting and primary adjustment.
Observation Unit
Agriculture: Farm
Fishing: catching and processing units
Mining: Mine
Sources / footnotes
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
Final Energy Consumption
FINAL CALCULUS CONSUMPTION
National survey of farming production and
Mining production registry
Subsectorial serial
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
Final Energy Consumption
FARMING CONSUMPTIONS
Consumptions: C(s,u,f) = EM * %U(s,u,t) * EC(f,t)
EM: Economical Measurement (cultivated area, production, heads). U(s,u,t): Percentage of Es where is shown the use (U) with technology (t). EC(f,t): Specific consumption of f per unit of Es for the use (U) with technology
(t).
Required Information:
• Measurement of economic activity• Technologies use for the production and processing• Specific consumption of energy in each technology.
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
Final Energy Consumption
FARMING CONSUMPTIONS
Technologies: Tractors and combined Irrigation Aerial fumigation Dried Grain Distillation
C(rice, tractor,DO) =cultivated area*%mechanized*Hr/Ha*gal/hr
88126.5 GAL = 5450 * 0.77 * 10.5 * 2
C(cotton,irrigation, EE)=cultivated area*%irrigated area* %irrigated area EE*kWh/Ha
618329 Kwh = 2550 * 0.0573 * 0.9 * 4702
Sources / footnotes
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
Final Energy Consumption
FISHING CONSUMPTION
Inquiry with the companies directly.
• Registry of energy distributing companies• Surveys of uses and consumptions (industrial)• Energy purchases (t)• Energy uses by process• Mining production (volume and value)(STRATA)• Technical features of production
C(m,p,f) = Production(m) *%m processed with (p) *Cef / Unit m
MINING CONSUMPTION
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
Coverage: Commercial establishments, and public service delivery.Observation Unit: Establishments
Classification Criteria: ISIC
Proposed Classification: Commercial establishments 61 & 62Restaurants 6310Hotels 6320Public and services 8 & 9
Sources / footnotes
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
USES
Heat: steam, direct heatDriving force: Mechanical strengthLightingOthers: Electronics
EQUIPMENT
Heat: Stoves, ovens, boilers,Driving force: Refrigeration, electromechanical pumps.Lighting: Bulbs, spotlightsOther: Radio equipment
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Record of energy distributing companies EE, NG, LPG.
Economic censuses of establishments (number, added value)
Surveys of use and energy consumption
Electrical Artifacts: C= Wp * H * Fu
Installed average power by establishment, sector and strata.
Sources / footnotes
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Survey of use and consumption of energy (cont.)Other Energy:Purchase for establishment
Average consumption per establishment, sector and stratum.
Sources / footnotes
CONSTRUCTION SECTORS AND OTHERS
Final Energy Consumption
Coverage: Buildings and civil worksObservation Unit: Project, works
Classification Criteria: Type of work
Proposed classification:
• Building Construction• Civil works• roads
Sources / footnotes
CONSTRUCTION SECTORS AND OTHERS
Final Energy Consumption
USES
Driving force: Mechanical strengthLighting
EQUIPMENTS
Driving force: Construction machineryLighting: light bulbs and reflectors
CONSTRUCTION SECTORS AND OTHERS
Final Energy Consumption
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Registry of fuel distributor Companies
Construction records
Fuel Consumption Survey
OTHERS SUBSECTORS
Non identified and others
NON ENERGY FINAL CONSUMPTION
Final Energy Consumption
Consumption of energy sources for non energy purposes.
Charcoal for carbon dioxide Natural gas for fertilizer Gasoline or kerosene for cleaning Bagasse for paper or particle board
NON ENERGY FINAL CONSUMPTION
Final Energy Consumption
Consumption of energy sources for non energy purposes.
Charcoal for carbon dioxide Natural gas for fertilizer Gasoline or kerosene for cleaning Bagasse for paper or particle board
ENERGY DEMAND
• BASIC CONSIDERATIONS
Identification of the subsectoral universe
Information Unit
Population characteristics
Direct information sources
Indirect or complementary information sources
Energy products used
9
ENERGY DEMAND
• BASIC CONSIDERATIONS
Procedures for determining final consumption
Variables required for the calculation of consumption
Characteristics that change energy consumption
Types and forms of energy consumption
Characteristics of technologies .
ENERGY DEMAND
• RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Universe: Buildings where people live; population
Information Unit : Dwelling; Home; Person
Population characteristics: demographics, regional distribution; Income
Direct information sources: traders of energy; population censuses, household surveys, previous studies,
Indirect or complementary information sources: censuses, surveys
Energy used: EE, LE,LPG, NG, CV, KR, BG
11
ENERGY DEMAND
• RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Procedures for determining final consumption: surveys, measurements, Mathematical models
Variables required for the calculation of consumption: population, households, specific consumption
Characteristics that change energy consumption: persons per dwellingper household, location, level of income, eating habits, height above sea level
Types and forms of energy: by processes and equipment
Characteristics of technologies that consume energy: how energy is harnessed, performance.