world at 7 billion

7/30/2019 World at 7 Billion

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www.prb.org

JULY 2011

VOL. 66, NO. 2

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

BY CARL HA UB A N D JA M ES GRIBBLE

Pop

ulatio

n

Bullet

in

THE WORLD AT 7 BILLION


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ABOUT THE AUTHORS

CARL HAUB is a senior visiting scholar at P R B. For more than

30 years, H aub was PR B s senior demographer and held

the C onrad Taeuber C hair of P opulation Information. M ost

noteworthy among his many published works is P R B s World

Population Data Sheet, which he has authored since 1980.

J AMES GRIBBLE is vice president of International P rograms at PR B,

and director of the USAID-supported IDEA project. He has written

on a range of population and health policy issues. M uch of his

current work focuses on the economic and health benefits of

family planning.


The Population Reference Bureau INFORMS people aroundthe world about population, health, and the environment,

and EMPOWERS them to use that information to ADVANCE

the well-being of current and future generations.

Funding for this Population Bulletinwas provided through

the generosity of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the

David and Lucile Packard Foundation.

OFFICERS

Mart in Vaessen, C hair of the BoardDirector, D emographic and H ealth Research Division, IC F M acro,

C alverton, M aryland

Margaret Neuse, Vice C hair of the Board

Independent C onsultant, Washington, D.C .

Stanley Smith, Secretary of the BoardProfessor and Director, Bureau of Economic and B usiness R esearc

University of Florida, G ainesville

Richard F. Hokenson, Treasurer of the Board

Director, H okenson and Company, L awrenceville, N ew Jersey

Wendy Baldwin, President and C hief Executive O fficer

Population R eference Bureau, Washington, D.C .

TRUSTEES

George Alleyne, Director Emeritus, P an American Health O rganizatio

World H ealth O rganization, Washington, D. C .

Felicity Barringer, National Correspondent, Environment,The N ew York T imes, San Francisco

Marcia Carlson, Associate Professor of Sociology, Universityof Wisconsin, M adison

Elizabeth Chacko, Associate P rofessor of G eography and InternationAffairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D .C .

Bert T. Edwards, Retired P artner, A rthur Andersen LLP, and former

C FO , U .S. State Department, Washington, D.C .

Francis L. Price, President and C hief Executive O fficer, Interact

Performance Systems and M agna Saxum P artners in Cleveland, O hio

and Anaheim, C alifornia.

Michael Wright, M anaging Director for Coastal East Africa,

World Wildlife Fund, Washington, D.C .

Montague Yudelman, Former D irector, Agriculture and R uralDevelopment, World Bank, Washington, D. C .

The Population Bulletinis published twice a year and distributed

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E-mail: popref@ prb.org; Website: www.prb.org.

The suggested citation, if you quote from this publication, is:C arl Haub and James G ribble, The World at 7 Billion, Population

Bulletin66, no. 2. For permission to reproduce portions from the

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C over photo: 2009 Nik ada/iStockphoto

2011 Population Reference Bureau. A ll rights reserved. IS SN 0032-468X


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www.prb.orgPO PULATION BULLETIN 66.22011 11

TABLE O F C O N T EN T S

JULY 2011

VOL. 66, NO. 2


BY CARL HA UB A N D JA M ES GRIBBLE


Populat ion Bulletin

WORLD POPULATION.........................................................................................................................2

Figure 1.World Population G rowth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .3Figure 2.T he C lassic Phases of Demographic Transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

UGANDA: AT THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION ......................................................4Figure 3. Age and Sex S tructure of U ganda, 2010 and 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

GUATEMALA: BEYOND THE EARLY PHASE OF THE TRANSITION...............6Figure 4. Age and S ex Structure of G uatemala, 2010 and 2050.........7

INDIA: ON THE PATH TO REPLACEMENT? .......................................................................8Figure 5. Sex R atio at Birth, S elected States of India,

1999-2008 ...................................................................................................................................................9Figure 6. Total Fertility R ates, India and Selected States,

1972-2009....................................................................................................................................................9

GERMANY: BEYOND THE TRANSITION'S END.......................................................... 10Figure 7. Total Fertility Rate in G ermany, 1952-2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Figure 8. Age and Sex S tructure of G ermany, 2009 and 2050 . . . . . . . . 11

SOURCES................................................................................................................................................... 12


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PO PULATION BULLETIN 66.222 www.prb.org

Even though the world population growth rate has slowed from

2.1 percent per year in the late 1960s to 1.2 percent today, the

size of the worlds population has continued to increasefrom

5 billion in 1987 to 6 billion in 1999, and to 7 billion in 2011.

WORLD PO PULAT IO N

G RO WIN G AT RECO RD SPEED

World populat ion mayreach 8 bi l l ion in 2023.

Today, most popul ationgrowth is concentratedin the w orlds poorestcountries, and w ithin thepoorest regions of thosecountries.

The sixth billion and seventh billion were each

added in record time only 12 years. If the 2.1percent growth rate from the 1960s had heldsteady, world population would be 8.7 billiontoday. It is entirely possible that the 8th billionwill be added in 12 years as well, placing ussquarely in the middle of historys most rapidpopulation expansion.

This prospect seems to run counter to theprevailing belief that concern over populationgrowth is a thing of the past, and that todayspopulation problem is that birth rates are toolow, not too high. In fact, there is some truth tothat notion, depending on the region or country

one is talking about. Today, most populationgrowth is concentrated in the worlds poorestcountries and within the poorest regions ofthose countries.

The decrease in the world growth rate since the1960s resulted from the realization on the partof some developing country governments anddonors about unprecedented rates of populationgrowth. It took all of human history to reach aworld population of 1.6 billion at the beginning ofthe 20th century. Just one hundred years later,in 2000, the population total had reached 6.1billion. How did this sudden, momentous change

come about? To understand this change, wemust first consider the demograph ic transitionthe shifts in birth and death rates that historicallyhave occurred over long periods of time. A ndthen we must look at how very differentlythe transition has taken place in the worldsdeveloped and developing countries.

The transition describes two trends: the

decline in birth rates as the need or desire folarger numbers of children diminished, and thdecline in death rates as public health initiativand modern medicine lengthened life.

In todays developed countries, this transitiontook many centuries, but in todays developincountries the changes are taking place inmere decades. In developed countries, birthand death rates tended to decline in parallel.Economies and societies changed during thatime: Fewer families stayed on farms and theIndustrial Revolution changed the way peopllived and worked. But the transitions pace w

still slow. In Sweden, for example, the slowlydeclining death and birth rates produced apopulation growth rate that has remainedfairly stable over the past 250 years, rarelyexceeding 1 percent per year.

In developing countries during the 20thcentury, major improvements in publichealth, the practice of modern medicine, andimmunization campaigns spread quick ly,particularly after World War II. Death ratesdropped while birth rates stayed high. In SriLanka, infant mortality (under age 1) in theearly 1950s is estimated to have been about

105 deaths per 1,000 live births. By the 1990the rate had dropped dramatically to below20, due in large part to basic public healthinterventions such as immunizations, oralrehydration therapy, and birth spacing all owhich have contributed to lower rates of infanand child mortality.

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With health conditions improving so rapidly, birth rates indeveloping countries did not have time to change as they didin Europe. This lag between the drop in death rates and thedrop in birth rates produced unprecedented levels of populationgrowth. In Kenya, infant mortality declined first contributingto a rise in life expectancy at birth from about 42 years in theearly 1950s to 56 years in the late 1970s before fertility begana decline from the then-prevalent eight children per woman.

During that same period, K enyas annual population growthrate approached an unheard-of 4 percent. In the early 1950s,Pak istan had a life expectancy of 41 years and an averagefertility rate of 6.6 children per woman. It was not until the early1980s, when life expectancy had reached 59 years duein large part to reductions in infant and child deaths thatPak istans fertility began to decrease and its population growthrate began to slow. These lengthy growth spurts resulted in therelatively new phenomenon of government policies aimed atlowering birth rates. Some governments, such as Indonesia andThailand, were quite successful in lowering birth rates; manyother governments have not been.

In addition to policies, social norms also contribute to how a

country moves through the demographic transition. A lthough attimes these norms conflict with public policies and programs,cultural factors such as age at marriage, desired family size, andgender roles all have a strong influence on fertility behavior.

What might the future look like? It is fundamental to rememberthat all population projections, whether performed by a nationalstatistical office, the United Nations, or the U.S. C ensus Bureau,are based on assumptions. D emographers make assumptionson the future course of the factors that determine populationgrowth or decline: the birth rate and the death rate. Whenlooking at projections, one needs to consider the assumptionsbeforethe results. In the case of developing countries, a typicalassumption is that birth and death rates will follow the path of

demographic transition from high birth and death rates to lowones mirroring the transition as it played out in developed

PHASE 1High Birth Rate,FluctuatingDeath Rate

PHASE 2Declining Birthand Death Rates

PHASE 3Birth RateApproachingReplacement (2.1)

PHASE 4Low to VeryLow BirthRate,Very LowDeath Rate

AfghanistanUgandaZambia

GhanaGuatemalaIraq

IndiaGabonMalaysia Brazil

GermanyJ apan

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Time

The Classic Phases of Demographic Transition

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billions

0

2

4

6

8

10

Less Developed Countries

More Developed Countries

countries. But when, how, and whether that actually happenscannot be known. When considering a population projectionfor a developing country, several questions need to be posed.If fertility has not yet begun to decline significantly, when will itbegin and why? This question would be appropriate for Nigerand Uganda, whose fertility rates are still very high at 7.0 and6.4, respectively. If fertility is declining, will it continue to do soor stall for a time at some lower level as it has in Jordan andK enya? Finally, will a countrys fertility really fall to as little as twochildren per woman or fewer, as is commonly expected?

This Population Bulletinlooks at the four phases of thedemographic transition as descriptive of past and futurepopulation growth. We highlight four countries to illustrate eachphase and its implications for human well-being:

Uganda (high birth rate, fluctuating death rate).

G uatemala (declining birth and death rates).

India (approaching replacement-level fertility).

G ermany (low or very low birth and death rates).

Source:United N ations Population D ivision, World Population Prosp ects: The 2010

Revision, medium variant ( 2011).

Notes:Natural increase or decrease is the difference between the number of b irths anddeaths. T he birth rate is the number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year. T he

death rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 population in a given year.

FIGURE 1

World Population Growth

FIGURE 2


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www.prb.org PO PULATION BULLETIN 66.224

Uganda has entered into its demographic transition by reducing

its once-high death rate. As a result of lower mortality but st ill hig

fertility, Uganda has developed a very youthful age structure.

UGANDA

AT THE BEG IN N IN G O F A T RAN SIT IO N

Deaths among children

under 5 are decreasing.Fewer than 13 percent ofchildren die before reach-ing age 5, partly a resultof higher levels of ful limmunizat ion and bettercare at deliver y.

Uganda is one of Africaslargest and fastest-growing count r ies .

Ugandas population will continue to growbecause of the large number of people whoare either currently at an age when they arehaving children or who will soon enter thatage group. With half of its population age 15

or younger, U ganda stands out as one of theworlds youngest age structures. As the worldreaches 7 billion, countries at the beginningof their demographic transition represent arelatively small proportion about 9 percentof the worlds population. However, thesecountries face similar development challenges.

OverviewWith a population of 35 million, Uganda isone of Africas largest and fastest-growingcountries. Uganda has several policies andaction plans that address its major population

and development issues, yet none effectivelyaddress the countrys fertility, which is amongthe highest in the world. Despite economicgrowth in the past decade, many Ugandanslive in poverty and confront social andeconomic inequities.

To understand Ugandas population challenges,one must examine the roles and statusof women. Ugandan women are greatlyaffected by HIV/AIDS, as is the case in manysub-Saharan A frican countries. In addition,maternal and child health indicators forUganda show that women and children have

very limited access to health services.

Even though the country continues to improvethe health of its people, U ganda will need toaddress its high fertility, increase the numberof youth who attend secondary school andhigher, and foster job creation so that itsfamilies, communities, and the nation as awhole grow economically.

Population and PoliciesThe factor driving U gandas currentpopulation growth of 3.3 percent per year isa total fertility rate (T FR ) averaging between

six and seven lifetime births per woman. T hlevel is only a slight reduction from the highlevel in the 1970s of 7.1 children per womanIf the current fertility level persists, Ugandaspopulation will double to 70 million by 2031and could reach 100 million after 2040.

O ne reason for this high TFR is that onlyabout 18 percent of Ugandas marriedwomen between ages 15 and 49 use effectcontraception, with injectable contraceptivepills, and sterilization the most popularmethods. An additional 41 percent of marriewomen want to postpone or avoid pregnanbut are not using an effective family planninmethod.

Ugandas 2008 population policy prioritizesbirth spacing and youth-friendly sexual andreproductive health services, and allocatesfunding for these programs. Two focal areasof Ugandas National Population Policy ActiP lan 2011-2015 are sexual and reproductivehealth and rights, and gender and familywelfare. In spite of these and other policies,Ugandas government shows relatively littlesupport for family planning. For example,government funding for contraceptives isnot sufficient even to address the needs ofwomen living in urban areas, who representonly 15 percent of the total population. T helack of public support for family planning bynational leaders is visibly noticed by the glocommunity.

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Economic InequalitiesUgandas gross domestic product is growing annually at arate of 5 percent to 10 percent. H istorically an agriculturallybased economy, the discovery of oil in 2006 offers Ugandaan opportunity for economic growth and diversification. YetUganda is still a resource-poor country and 65 percent of itspopulation lives on less than US $2 per day. T his inequality is

stark: T he wealthiest 20 percent (quintile) of the populationholds 49 percent of total income, while the poorest quintileholds only 6 percent.

According to the 2006 Uganda Demographic and HealthSurvey (D HS), wealth distribution is closely related to fertility.Women in the poorest quintile have eight children on averageduring their lives, while women in the wealthiest quintile havejust over four children. S imilarly, 41 percent of young womenages 15 to 19 in the poorest quintile have begun childbearing,while only 16 percent in the wealthiest quintile have. Thesedifferences are further reinforced by the practice of childmarriage: M ore than half of women in all but the wealthiestquintile are married before age 18.

Gender InequalitiesLike many countries that face development challenges, one ofthe barriers impeding progress is gender inequality. G enderroles play out in virtually every aspect of life from educationalattainment among youth to decisions made within families. Inhouseholds where the 2006 DHS was conducted, men age20 or older always had higher levels of education than womenof the same age. H owever, females under age 20 had roughlythe same education as males, suggesting greater attention toeducating girls. Womens empowerment remains elusivemen indicate that family size is primarily their decision (47percent), though many see it as a joint decision (45 percent);

few (5 percent) see it as the womans decision. Womenreinforce their own lack of power as well: M ore than 70percent of women thought that a husband could be justifiedfor hitting or beating his wife, suggesting a cultural acceptanceof violence against women.

G ender inequalities also play out in the HIV/A IDS epidemic.According to the 2010 Uganda R eport to the United Nations,6.4 percent of Ugandans between ages 15 and 49 areinfected with H IV. H owever, young women experience muchhigher rates of infection than young men. For example, among20-to-24-year-olds, 2.4 percent of men are H IV positive,compared to 6.3 percent of women. P revalence is highestamong women ages 30 to 34, at 12.1 percent, compared to

8.1 percent among men in that age group. A lthough AID Scontinues to contribute approximately 64,000 deaths per yearin Uganda, these deaths do not offset the population growthresulting from the approximately 1 million births each year inUganda.

Health of Women and ChildrenLike other countries in the early phase of the demographictransition, Uganda has one of the worlds highest maternaldeath ratios approximately 430 deaths per 100,000 livebirths. Although most women receive some antenatal care,only about 47 percent receive four or more visits and only 42percent have a skilled attendant at delivery. T hese statisticsvary greatly across Ugandas nine regions.

Deaths among children under age 5 continue to decrease inUganda, and currently fewer than 13 percent of children diebefore reaching age 5, due mainly to neonatal causes, malaria,pneumonia, and diarrhea. T his reduction in child deaths ispartly a result of higher levels of full immunization and better

care at delivery, as well as better use of health services whenchildren are ill. However, poor nutrition undermines the healthof most children: 73 percent have anemia and 38 percent arestunted (low height for age).

ChallengesUgandas continued rapid population growth, according tothe United N ations high projection, will expand its populationin 2050 to 105.6 million; half the population would be age 20or younger significantly older than the current median ageof 15. However, if fertility remains at a level of 6.7 children perwoman (from the 2006 DHS), Ugandas population could beas high as 145 million by 2050 and have the same youthful

structure as it currently has. To address this challenge,Uganda will need to focus not only on family planning to slowits population growth, but on wise investments that will helpdevelop an educated labor force and create jobs to sustainand increase its recent economic growth.

Age2010 2050

Male Female Male

Percentage Percentage

Female

80+75-7970-7465-69

60-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-90-4

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

FIGURE 3

Age and Sex Structure of Uganda, 2010 and 2050

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prosp ects: The 2010 Revision

(2011).


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As a lower middle-income country, Guatemala is well-advanced in

its demographic t ransition, showing evidence of recent reduct ions

in its birth rate.

GUATEMALA

BEYO N D TH E EA RLY PHA SE O F TH E TRA N SITIO N

Guatemalas recenteconomic growth hasresulted from tourism andthe exports of textiles,clothing, and agriculturalcrops.

At more than 14 mil l ion,Guatemala is the m ost

populous country inCentral America.

G uatemalas population structure illustratesthat women have been having fewer childrenfor several years, which explains why thebase of the pyramid is shorter, comparedto the elongated base of Ugandas pyramid.With half of its population age 19 or younger,G uatemalas population is still relativelyyoung and is the youngest in Latin America.G uatemala is one of many countries in thissecond phase of the demographic transition;together they represent about 7 percent ofthe worlds population of 7 billion.

OverviewAt more than 14 million, G uatemala is themost populous country in Central America.Its growth rate is still high at 2.5 percent peryear the highest in all of Latin A merica.A lthough G uatemala has several nationalpolicies that support social development andaddress population issues, they have notbeen carried out very effectively. The countryhas experienced economic growth in the pastdecade, although growth has recently slowed.G uatemala remains challenged by high levelsof inequality, especially between the M ayanpopulation, which represents approximately40 percent of the countrys population, andthe ladinopopulation, which mak es up themajority of the remaining 60 percent.

G uatemala has made great strides in

addressing many of its gender-baseddisparities. However, the more-telling differenceis between the quality of the lives of M ayanand ladinawomen, reflected in differences inschool attendance and use of health services.Women are having smaller families; peopleare healthier and living longer, with a lifeexpectancy at birth of 71 years; and the child

dependency ratio is decreasing, suggestingthat families may be poised to invest more inhealth, education, and savings. Neverthelessustaining economic growth and dealingwith an upturn in violent crime threatenG uatemalas longer-term development.

Population and PoliciesO ver the past 20 years, fertility levels havedecreased substantially in G uatemala. From5.6 children per woman in 1987, the recent2008/09 National Survey of M aternal and C hHealth (N SM C H ) indicates that women have average of 3.6 children each. If current fertilityremains unchanged, G uatemalas populationwill double in 26 years. Although fertility hasgone down, women indicated that, on averagthey want fewer than three children.

The recent reductions in fertility are duelargely to increased use of family planning.C urrently, 44 percent of married women use modern family planning method, with femalesterilization and injectable contraceptives themost common types. At the same time, anadditional 31 percent of married women wanto postpone or avoid pregnancy but are notusing an effective contraceptive method.

Since 2002, G uatemala has had a nationalSocial Development and Population policythat prioritizes as health objectives a reductio

in maternal and infant mortality, sexuallytransmitted infections, and HIV/AIDS. In 2010the G uatemalan C ongress approved a law tosupport healthy motherhood, and stipulatesthat at least 30 percent of taxes on the sale oalcohol should be used to support reproducthealth programs. G uatemala is also addressipoverty reduction through Mi Familia Progres

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a conditional cash transfer program established in 2008 that

encourages the use of health services and education.

Economic InequalitiesG uatemalas recent economic growth has resulted from tourismand the exports of textiles, clothing, and agricultural crops. Halfof the labor force works in agriculture. A lmost a quarter of thepopulation lives on less that US$2 per day. T he country has avery inequitable income distribution: T he wealthiest 20 percent(quintile) of the population holds 58 percent of total income,while the poorest quintile holds only 3 percent.

Economic inequalities influence many social behaviors.Wealthier women have fewer children on average during their

lives than poorer women have: 1.8 children per woman in thewealthiest quintile compared to 5.7 children per woman in thepoorest quintile. It is not surprising that use of family planningmethods is very high among married women in the wealthiestquintile 72 percent but only 36 percent of married womenin the lowest quintile use any form of family planning.

Gender InequalitiesC ompared with many other countries, G uatemala hasmoved closer toward gender equality. Between 1987 and2008/09, the percentage of women who never attendedschool dropped from 38 percent to 20 percent; among M ayanwomen, this improvement was even more notable: from 67

percent never attending school in 1987 to 35 percent notattending school in 2008/09. R ecent educational advancesare fairly equal for both boys and girls. A mong children ages5 to 14, there are no differences in the age at which boysand girls start school nor in the percentage who never attendschool.

G ender roles also influence social behaviors and attitudes.M any G uatemalan women tend to have more traditional views.

For example, 65 percent of women included in the 2008/09survey reported that a woman should obey her husbandeven when she does not agree with him. Almost 80 percentresponded that they need to get his approval before incurringa household expense, working outside the house, goingto the doctor when ill, or leaving the house. H owever, only56 percent indicated that a woman should seek the mansapproval about using family planning. Each of these attitudes

was more frequently held by women in the poorer quintilesthan in the wealthier ones.

G ender-based violence is not unusual, as 46 percent ofwomen reported that they have experienced either verbal,physical, or sexual violence from their husband or partner.T he frequency of these behaviors is consistent betweenM ayan and ladinawomen, as well as across wealth quintiles.However, in contrast to other countries where women acceptwife beating, only 7 percent of G uatemalan women agreedthat under certain circumstances a man is justified in hittinghis wife.

Health of Women and ChildrenAs a country with improving access to and use of healthservices, G uatemala still has a high maternal mortality ratioof 110 deaths per 100,000 live births, putting it slightly aboveother countries in C entral America. U se of antenatal careis very high, with 93 percent of women receiving care atsome time during their most recent pregnancy. M ore than50 percent of women receive care from a physician or nurseduring delivery, but only 30 percent of M ayan women receiveskilled care, compared to 70 percent of ladinawomen.

Deaths among children under age 5 continue to decrease,from 109 in 1987 to 42 in 2008/09. M ore than half of infantdeaths (17 out of 30 deaths per 1,000 live births) occur in the

neonatal period; death at this phase can be prevented throughskilled attendance at deliveries and antenatal care. Almosthalf of all children between ages 3 months and 59 months arestunted (low height for age.) H owever, almost twice as manyM ayan children are stunted as are ladinochildren (66 percentvs. 36 percent, respectively). Just under half (48 percent) ofchildren ages 6 months to 59 months are anemic, but thiscondition is fairly evenly distributed across wealth quintiles andethnicity groups.

ChallengesG uatemala has made great advances in social and economicdevelopment in the past two decades, but serious inequities

still exist between the M ayan and ladinopopulations.R egardless of the issue considered fertility, child health,education the disparities between these two segments ofthe population represent the gap that must be addressedthrough future development initiatives. If G uatemala followsthe medium projection scenario, it will have a population ofalmost 32 million by 2050, and an age structure similar toPhase-3 countries.

Male Female Male Female

Age2010 2050

Percentage Percentage

80+75-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-90-4

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 108 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 108

FIGURE 4

Age and Sex Struc ture of Guatemala, 2010 and 2050

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prosp ects: The 2010 Revision

(2011).


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India is on track to become the worlds largest country about 10

years from now, even though fert ility has declined to 2.6 children

per woman, which is less than half of its 1950s level.

INDIA

O N TH E PATH TO R EPLACEM ENT

India is often portrayed asan exploding middle-classeconomy, but such atti-tudes obscure a far morecomplex society.

Indias populat ion in 2 011.Between the las t three

censuses, Indias popula-t ion growth rate has been

declining.

Indias population will surpass Chinas,assuming that C hina does not alter its currentfertility policy. But Indias population will alsobe more youthful than C hinas and will notface a budget-straining situation of population

aging. C ountries like India in the third phaseof demographic transition have fertilityrates that have declined significantly frompreviously high levels but have not reachedthe population-stabilizing replacement levelof 2.1 children per woman. These countriesare home to 38 percent of the worlds 7 billionpeople.

OverviewAs of the recently conducted 2011 Census,Indias population stood at 1.2 billion. To get anidea of the size of Indias population, considerthat the population of just one age group,males ages 0-4, is about 67 million, larger thanthe entire population of France. Between thelast three censuses, Indias population growthrate has been in decline, but the 2011 C ensuswas the first to show a decrease in the numberadded as well. From 2001 to 2011, 181.5million people were added, down slightly from182.3 million from 1991 to 2001.

India is often portrayed as an explodingmiddle-class economy. While not a completeexaggeration, such attitudes obscure a farmore complex society. Unlike Vietnam, an

example of a virtually homogeneous countrywith a common language and predominantethnicity, India is more like a collection ofsemi-independent countries united underone democracy. T he country is dividedinto 35 states and Union Territories, fromUttar Pradesh with 200 million people to the

Lakshadweep Islands with 64,429 people. Itdiversity is reflected by the fact that there are16 separate languages on rupee notes. M anystates are ruled by regional parties, posingchallenges to the national government in

Delhi in forming coalition governments at thenational level and at some state levels.

Despite much publicity given to the countryseconomic growth, India remains a ruralnation with many towns officially designatedas urban still retaining much of their ruralcharacter. Urban places are generally definedas villages and towns of 5,000 or more inwhich 75 percent or more of the male laborforce is not directly employed in agriculture.The average Indian resided in a village of abo4,000 people in 2001. M any of these placeslack adequate sanitation and clean water, an

are often only reachable by primitive roadsand trails. T hese characteristics often placeconsiderable obstacles in the path of healthservices delivery.

There are also misconceptions regarding theIndian middle class and standards of living.Indians are not consumers in the Westernsense of impulse purchases or frivolousspending. A true middle-class Indian, livinga Western-standard life, is more properlyconsidered part of the super-rich class, aminuscule proportion of the population.M edia reports on new, glitzy shopping

malls in India fail to mention that few visitorsactually purchase anything; they go to theair-conditioned malls to visit food courts andattend the cinema. In the vast majority ofIndian households, traditional ways of life, suas arranged and early marriages (about halfof Indian females marry below the legal age

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of 18), deep respect for ones elders, and close relations with

extended families are the rule. O nes wages are less importantthan in the West, since large extended families often poolresources.

Population and PolicyIndia is often noted as the first developing country to declare apolicy to reduce fertility, in 1952, although effective funds werenot allocated until 1966 and the first truly comprehensive policywas not written until 2000. Nonetheless, effective measureswere taken in many states to lower the birth rate and everystate has seen a decline. In the early 1950s, fertility is estimatedto have been 5.9 children per woman by the United NationsPopulation D ivision, not as high as in many other developing

countries at the time where the average was often sevenchildren or more.

By 2009, fertility in India had declined to 2.6 children perwoman, less than half that of the early 1950s. But this nationalfertility rate masks wide disparities by state. T he lowest fertilityrates are found in the southern states, especially in Kerala witha 2009 TFR of 1.7, along with its neighbor Tamil Nadu. M uch ofthe countrys demographic future will depend on fertility trendsin the northern states which, along with large populations,have the highest levels of illiteracy and poverty. Bihar and UttarPradesh, the states with the highest TFR s, had populationsof 104 million and 200 million, respectively, in 2011. These twostates, part of the Empowered Action G roup States (EAG ),

along with Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, M adhya Pradesh, O rissa,Rajasthan, and U ttarakhand, are all impoverished and are thefocus of increased family planning efforts.

Skewed Sex Ratio at BirthAlong with China and several Caucasus countries, the preferencefor sons in India has resulted in a sex ratio at birth skewed in favor

of males. Worldwide, the biological norm is about 105 male per100 female births. Indias sex ratio is 111 male per 100 femalebirths. In India, there are both economic and religious motivationsfor the abortion of female fetuses. At marriage, a daughter leavesthe household to live with her in-laws and thereby provides noeconomic support to her parents family, especially in their oldage. Additionally, a dowry must be paid even though dowrieswere banned in 1961. T here is a saying that having a daughteris like watering your neighbors garden. For Hindus (about 80percent of the population), having a son light his parents funeralpyre is a prerequisite for N irvana, the release from the cycle ofreincarnation.

Sex-selective abortion was made illegal in 1994 and, recently,the prosecution of doctors who engage in the practice wastaken up in a serious way. It is clear that some notable progresshas been made. G enerally, the abortion of female fetuses ismore prevalent in wealthier, highly educated, low-fertility stateswhere parents can afford the ultrasound test and the motivationto have at least one son is more pressing.

The FutureThe size of Indias future population will largely depend uponthe course of fertility decline in the highly populous north. Whileclearly in the third phase of the transition, will India move to the

fourth phase of replacement fertility or will it join that group ofdeveloping countries where that seems doubtful? For the fourthphase to begin, fertility in the very large and poor Indian stateswill have to decline to that of an industrialized country, aroundtwo or fewer children. In terms of future world populationsize, India will be one of the important demographic stories incoming decades.

1999-2001

2000-02

2001-03

2002-04

2003-05

2004-06

2005-07

2006-08

Punjab

0

120

105

135

Male per 100 female births

Rajasthan

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

FIGURE 5

Sex Ratio at Birth, Selected States of India, 1999-2008

1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008

Children per woman

Uttar Pradesh

Maharashtra

Kerala

BiharIndia

1

0

2

3

4

5

6

7

Madhya Pradesh

FIGURE 6

Total Fertility Rates, India and Selected States, 1972-2009

Source:R egistrar G eneral of India, Sample Registration System.

Note:T he states of C hhattisgarh, Jharkhand, a nd Uttarak hand were separated from

M adhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Uttar P radesh, respectively, in 2000.

Source:R egistrar G eneral of India, Sample Registration System.


12/16


Germanys recovery from the devastation of World War II is

often called an economic miracle because its economy is now

Europes largest. Immigration has been an important part of the

countrys modern demographic history.

GERMANY

BEYO N D THE TRAN SIT IO N S EN D

Germanys TFR is 1.4 ch il-dren per w oman. To date,efforts to raise fert i l i ty inGermany have not beensuccessful.

Germany is the larg estcountr y in the EuropeanUnion by a good margin. Labor shortages led to a guest-worker

program, which began bringing workersto West G ermany from countries such as

G reece, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and Yugoslaviain the late 1950s. R ather than return to theirhomelands, however, many of these workersbrought their families to Germany. From1960 to the early 1980s, net immigrationaveraged several hundred thousand per year,peak ing at more than 500,000 in 1969 and1970. Following G ermanys reunification in1990, a new flow of migrants arrived: ethnicG ermans who had been trapped behind theIron C urtain. In 1992, net immigration neared800,000. There was concern at the timethat some of these migrants were not trueethnic G ermans, but were economic migrants

seeking a better life in the West. At the endof 2009, 19 percent of Germanys populationhad what the G erman Federal StatisticalO ffice calls a migrant background, whichincludes immigrants since 1950 and theiroffspring.

G ermany is a dramatic example of the fourthphase of demographic transition: C ountrieswith low or very low birth and death ratesrepresent almost half, or 46 percent, of theworlds population.

OverviewG ermanys population stands at an estimated81.8 million in m id-2011, the largest countryin the European Union by a good margin. Butthat total is down from 82.3 million at the endof 2006. G ermanys principal demographicconcerns today are its very low birth rate andthe lack of social and cultural integration of

its migrant population. R ecently, C hancellorAngela M erkel stated that integration was nworking.

In 1964, births exceeded deaths by 486,98the highest postwar surplus. By 1972, deathin G ermany exceeded births by 64,032, anddeaths have surpassed births every yearsince. In 2010, the difference between birthand deaths stood at -180,833. O nly a positivbalance of net immigration has forestalleda much more rapid population decline. Asa member of the European Union (EU ),G ermany must also abide by the SchengenAgreement of 1985 whereby the EU has noborder controls. M ember states do have thright to impose certain restrictions, however

In 1995, the agreement was in force in the25 member states. T here has been someresistance to including new member statesfrom eastern and southern Europe in thepassport-free zone. The EU is now debatingthe Schengen status of new membersBulgaria and R omania.

Population and Policies

The fourth phase of the demographictransition is often described as an extendedperiod of near demographic equilibrium, witfertility near the replacement level of about

2.1 children per woman. In the majority ofindustrialized countries, fertility fell quiterapidly throughout the late 1960s and early1970s, a transformation that was to alterdemographic prospects in many countries unforeseen ways. In the United States, fertilfell from 2.9 children per woman in 1965 to record low of 1.7 in 1976. G ermany reached

82MILLION

PHASE 4


13/16


a TFR of 1.7 in 1970. B ut while the U.S. fertility rate slowly

rebounded to 2.1 in 1990 (and has remained close to that eversince), the G erman fertility rate did not rebound, and today ismuch lower, at 1.4.

Fertility in the former East and West G ermany followed a verysimilar path up to the mid-1970s. B ut East G ermany, underC ommunist rule, instituted a number of pronatalist measuressuch as family allowances, maternity leave, and child caresubsidies. Fertility rose until the economic disruption after thecountrys reunification and the subsequent out-migration fromEast G ermany to the West.

In western G ermany, however, little was done to reverse thetrend in low fertility. Fertility has remained below 1.5 children

per woman since 1975, and at times considerably below.O bstacles to increasing the birth rate are similar to otherlow-fertility countries, particularly peoples lack of confidencein their econom ic future. B ut there are several other factors.Day care centers usually close at 1 p.m., a burden on thegrowing number of two-earner families. Social attitudes tendto disfavor leaving ones child in the care of someone elsefor the entire day. M others who do leave their children all dayare often considered to be raven mothers (Rabenmutter)because a raven abandons her young at an early age.But this attitude may be slowly changing with growingacknowledgment of a birth rate crisis. Some day care centersnow sport Ganztags!signs (all-day day care). The governmenttook little direct action until well after 2000, despite growing

concern over the diminished number of young people andits effect on supporting pension programs and virtually freehealth care, particularly for the elderly.

To try to increase the birth rate, the government gives 184euros monthly for the first and second child, 190 euros for thethird, and 215 for the fourth until each child turns 18 (or 25 ifstill pursuing an education). M aternity leave spans 14 weeks,six weeks prior to the birth and eight weeks afterward with

a minimum benefit paid of 13 euros per day. Finally, a monthly

minimum of 300 euros is allocated for care of a newborn butcan rise to 1,800 euros or 67 percent of ones prior salary. Thisis paid for 14 months with the stipulation that one parent mustuse the benefit for two months, a feature that ensures thatfathers will take part in child care. T he additional expense hasput a strain on the national budget and has had little effect onbirth rates. But only a few countries in the industrialized worldhave seen significant increases in birth rates from these kindsof family benefits notably R ussia and the Canadian provinceof Q uebec.

Challenges

To date, efforts to raise fertility in G ermany have not been

successful. In two Eurobarometer surveys, respondents wereasked about their personal ideal number of children. In 2001,G erman women ages 15 to 24 said 1.8 children; in 2006,they said 2.0. In contrast, in France the answer was 2.6 forboth survey years. A nswers to questions on ideal numbers ofchildren, however, are nearly always much higher than fertilityactually achieved in developed countries. In the 2001 survey,among G erman women ages 18 to 34, nearly 17 percent gavenone as their ideal and 9 percent said one, percentages farhigher than other EU countries.

Projections from the N ational Statistical O ffice assumethat, if there is a rise in fertility, it will be quite modest. Withan increase to a fertility rate of 1.6 children and annual

net immigration of 200,000, G ermanys population woulddecrease to 74.5 million in 2060 with 31 percent of thepopulation ages 65 and older. Should fertility remain at 1.4children and immigration amount to 100,000 per year, the2060 population would decline to 64.7 million, with 34 percentages 65 and over. G iven the stable trend in fertility over thelast 35 years and the lack of success of pronatalist programs,population decline and continued aging appear to describethe countrys future quite well.

Age2009 2050

Male Female Male Female

PercentagePercentage

80+75-7970-7465-6960-64

55-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-90-4

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 10810 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 108

FIGURE 7

Total Fertility Rate in Germany, 1955-2010

Source:G erman Federal Statistical O ffice.

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

East Germany

West Germany

0.5

0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Unified Germany

FIGURE 8

Age and Sex Structure of Germany, 2009 and 2050

Sources:For 2009: Germa n Federal Statistical O ffice, Statistical Yearbook 2010. For 2050:

United N ations Population D ivision, World Population Prosp ects: The 2010 Revision(2011).


14/16


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population/international/data/idb/informationG ateway.php, June 4, 2011.

UGANDA

C arl Haub and Toshiko K aneda, 2011 Wo rld Population Data Sheet(Washington,


G overnment of Uganda, UNGASS Country Progress Report 2008-20 09(New

York: U NAID S, 2010), accessed at www.unaids.org, on M ay 26, 2011.

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accessed at www.newvision.co.ug/PA /8/13/753615, on M ay 26, 2011.

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revenuewatch.org/our-work/countries/uganda/country-data, on M ay 26, 2011.

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com/ugagnea/gini-index-wb-data.html, on M ay 26, 2011.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBO S) and M acro International Inc., Uganda

Demographic and Health Survey 2006(C alverton, M D: M acro International Inc.,

2008).

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and Sustainable Development 2008(K ampala: U ganda M inistry of Finance,

P lanning and Economic D evelopment, 2008).

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www.popsec.org/publications_19_220494683.pdf, on M ay 26, 2011.

UNFPA, Coun try Profiles for Population and Reproductive Health: Policy

Developments and Indicators 2009/2 010(New York: UNFPA, 2010).

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uganda_statistics.html, on M ay 26, 2011.


Revision(New York: United N ations, 2011), accessed at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, on M ay 26, 2011.

World Health O rganization, Mortality Country Fact SheetUganda, 2006

(G eneva: World H ealth O rganization, 2006), accessed at www.who.int/whosis/

mort/profiles/mort_afro_uga_uganda.pdf, on M ay 26, 2011.

GUATEMALA

C arl Haub and Toshiko K aneda, 2011 Wo rld Population Data Sheet(Washingt


G uatemala, SEG EPL AN , Guatemala Ley de Desarrollo Social y Poblacion (200

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wpp/index.htm, on M ay 26, 2011.

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accessed at www.who.int/whosis/mort/profiles/mort_amro_gtm_guatemala.p

on M ay 26, 2011.

INDIA

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Tradition, Population Bulletin61, no 3 (2006).

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Delhi: G overnment of India, 2000).

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at www.censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/census2011_paper1_states.htm

on M ay 15, 2011.

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System Statistical Report, various annual issues (N ew Delhi: R G I, various year

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1971 to 1996 Based on The Sample Registration System (SRS)(New Delhi: R1998).


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accessed on June 10, 2011.

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Fund, H annover, G ermany, June 7, 2011.

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Recent Population BulletinsVOLUME 66 (2011)

N o. 1 Americas Aging Population

by Linda A. Jacobsen, Mary Kent, Marlene Lee,

and Mark Mather

N o. 2 T he World at 7 Billion

by Carl Haub and James Gribble

VOLUME 65 (2010)

N o. 1 U. S. Economic and Social Trends Since 2000

by Linda A. Jacobsen and Mark Mather

N o. 2 World Population H ighlights: K ey Findings From PR B s

2010 World Population Data Sheet

by Jason Brem ner, Ashley Frost, Carl Haub, M ark Mather,

Karin Ringheim, and Eric Zuehlke

VOLUME 64 (2009)

No. 1 20th-Century U.S . Generations

by Elwood Carlson

No. 2 Urban Poverty and Health in Developing Countries

by Mark R. Montgomery

No. 3 World Population H ighlights: K ey Findings From PR Bs 2009

World Population Data Sheet

by Population Reference Bureau staff


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This Population Bulletinlooks at the four phases of the demographictransition as descriptive of past and future population growth. Wehighlight four countries to illustrate each phase and its implicationsfor human well-being:

Uganda (high birth rate, fluctuating death rate).

G uatemala (declining birth and death rates).

India (approaching replacement-level fertility).

G ermany (low or very low birth and death rates).

world at 7 billion

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