world feed and food supply and demand governors’ agriculture, energy, and sustainability...
TRANSCRIPT
World Feed and Food Supply and Demand
Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable
Governors’ Biofuels Coalition
Washington, DCJanuary 28, 2010
Gerald A. BangeChairperson, World Agricultural Outlook Board
United States Department of Agriculture
Wheat Futures Prices
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10
$/bushelCBOT-SRW KCBOT-HRW MGEX-HRS
Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Kansas Board of Trade, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange settlement prices.
Nearby Futures Contracts
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons Production Consumption
Global Wheat Production & Consumption
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons
Australia Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
January 12, 2010
World Wheat Production
Country or Region2008/09 estimate
2009/10 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2008/09
Million Tons Percent Percent
World 682.7 676.1 0.3 -1.0United States 68.0 60.3 0.0 -11.3
Foreign 614.7 615.8 0.4 0.2Argentina 9.0 8.0 0.0 -11.1Canada 28.6 26.5 0.0 -7.4Australia 20.9 22.5 0.0 7.5European Union 151.1 138.3 0.0 -8.4Russian Federation 63.7 61.7 3.7 -3.1Ukraine 25.9 20.5 0.0 -20.8Kazakhstan 12.6 17.0 0.0 35.5China 112.5 114.5 0.0 1.8India 78.6 80.6 0.0 2.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. acres
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50Bu./ac.Planted Yield Linear (Planted)
U.S. Wheat Area and Yields
Planted area Yields
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
350
400
450
500
550
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. acres
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46Bu./ac.Harvested Yield Linear (Harvested)
Foreign Wheat Area and Yields
Harvested area Yields
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons
EU-27 FSU-12 Canada Australia Argentina
Wheat Production by Other Major Exporters
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
8 27
113
169
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons
United States Foreign
Global Wheat Ending Stocks
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
January 12, 2010
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand2008/09 estimate
2009/10 forecast
Change from last month
Change from 2008/09
Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 63.2 59.1 0.0 -6.4Harvested area (million acres) 55.7 49.9 0.0 -10.5Yield (bushels per acre) 44.9 44.4 0.0 -1.1
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 306 657 0.0 114.7Production 2,499 2,216 0.0 -11.3Imports 127 110 0.0 -13.4Total supply 2,932 2,983 0.0 1.7
Food use 927 940 0.0 1.4Seed 75 72 -7.7 -4.1Feed and residual 258 170 -10.5 -34.2Domestic use 1,260 1,182 -2.2 -6.2
Exports 1,015 825 -5.7 -18.8Total use 2,275 2,007 -3.6 -11.8
Ending stocks 657 976 8.4 48.6Percent
Stocks to use ratio 28.9 48.6Dollars per bushel
Average market price 6.78 4.70/5.00 0.0 -28.5
Corn Futures Prices
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10
$/bushel
Source: Chicago Board of Trade settlement prices.
Nearby CBOT Corn Futures
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons Production Consumption
Global Corn Production & Consumption
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
RFS and Corn Ethanol Use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18Sep-Aug Corn Marketing Year
Bil. gal.
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9Bil. bu.Corn Ethanol Use* Conventional Ethanol RFS Total RFS
* 2008/09 and 2009/10 projected based on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010. Projections for 2010/11-2015/16 are from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018, February 2009.
86.586.0
93.5
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Mil. acres
Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production 2009 Summary, January 12, 2010.
U.S. Corn Planted Area
1997-2006 avg. = 79.1
January 12, 2010
World Corn Production
Country or Region2008/09 estimate
2009/10 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2008/09
Million Tons Percent Percent
World 791.6 796.4 0.8 0.6United States 307.1 334.1 1.8 8.8
Foreign 484.5 462.4 0.1 -4.6Argentina 12.6 15.0 7.1 19.0Brazil 51.0 51.0 0.0 0.0Mexico 24.2 22.0 -2.2 -9.2Canada 10.6 9.6 0.0 -9.7European Union 62.7 56.1 0.0 -10.5FSU-12 21.3 17.9 0.0 -16.2South Africa 12.6 11.5 0.0 -8.5China 165.9 155.0 0.0 -6.6
4533
9176
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons
United States Foreign
Global Corn Ending Stocks
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
January 12, 2010
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand2008/09 estimate
2009/10 forecast
Change from last month
Change from 2008/09
Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 86.0 86.5 0.2 0.6Harvested area (million acres) 78.6 79.6 0.4 1.3Yield (bushels per acre) 153.9 165.2 1.4 7.3
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,624 1,673 0.0 3.0Production 12,092 13,151 1.8 8.8Total supply 13,729 14,834 1.6 8.0
Feed and residual 5,246 5,550 2.8 5.8Food, seed, and industrial 4,953 5,470 -0.2 10.4Ethanol 3,677 4,200 0.0 14.2Domestic use 10,198 11,020 1.3 8.1
Exports 1,858 2,050 0.0 10.4Total use 12,056 13,070 1.1 8.4
Ending stocks 1,673 1,764 5.3 5.4Percent
Stocks to use ratio 13.9 13.5Dollars per bushel
Average market price 4.06 3.40/4.00 4.2 -8.9
Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs
-0.15
-0.05
0.05
0.15
0.25
0.35
0.45
0.55
0.65
9/7
/07
12
/24
/07
4/1
0/0
8
7/2
7/0
8
11
/12
/08
2/2
8/0
9
6/1
6/0
9
10
/2/0
9
1/1
8/1
0
$/gal.
Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.
Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
9/4/08 10/30/08 12/25/08 2/19/09 4/16/09 6/11/09 8/6/09 10/1/09 11/26/09 1/21/10
$/gal.
Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.
Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB)
Ethanol
U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sep 2006 May 2007 Jan 2008 Sep 2008 May 2009 Jan 2010
Bil. gallons/year
Growing production capacity
Mandated biofuels use for 2010
Source: Renewable Fuels Association and Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
57
11
14
19
24
3132
3435
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997/98 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10F 2012/13F 2015/16F 2018/19F
Bil. bushels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40PercentEthanol corn use Ethanol share of corn use (%)
U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol
Note: 2008/09 and 2009/10 projected based on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010. Projections for 2010/11-2018/19 are from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018, February 2009.
U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption
Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).
130
135
140
145
150
155
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010F 2012F 2014F 2016F
Bil. gallons Actual EIA AEO Dec. 2009
EIA AEO Dec. 2007 EIA STEO Jan. 2010
3.4 bil. gal. 9.3 bil. gal.
8.1 bil. gal.
6.155.55
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Bil. bushels
U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Use
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
Corn Processing Feed Co-product Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons
Distillers dried grains (DDG) Corn gluten feed (CGF) Corn gluten meal (CGM)
Note: Based on food, seed, and industrial use, USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons Production Consumption
China Corn Production & Consumption
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
165.2149.1
82.384.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Bushels per acre
United States China
U.S. and China Corn Yields
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, January 12, 2010.
January 12, 2010
World Soybean Production
Country or Region
2008/09 estimate
2009/10 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2008/09
Million Tons Percent Percent
World 210.9 253.4 1.2 20.2United States 80.7 91.5 1.3 13.3
Foreign 130.1 161.9 1.2 24.4Argentina 32.0 53.0 0.0 65.6Brazil 57.0 65.0 3.2 14.0India 9.1 8.8 0.0 -3.3China 15.5 14.5 0.0 -6.5
Argentina and Brazil soy production losses set the stage for 2009/10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Brazil Argentina
Million Tons -18 million tonsor 660 mil bu
Global soybean production rises 20% in 2009/10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Other U.S. Brazil Argentina
Million Tons +43 million tonsor 1.6 bil. bu.
Global oilseed stocks rebuild after 2-year decline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Soybeans Other
Million Tons +16 mil tons
January 12, 2010
U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand2008/09 estimate
2009/10 forecast
Change from last month
Change from 2008/09
Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 75.7 77.5 -0.1 2.3Harvested area (million acres) 74.7 76.4 -0.3 2.3Yield (bushels per acre) 39.7 44.0 1.5 10.7
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 205 138 0.0 -32.6Production 2,967 3,361 1.3 13.3Imports 13 8 0.0 -39.7Total supply 3,185 3,507 1.2 10.1
Crush 1,662 1,710 0.9 2.9Seed and residual 102 177 1.2 74.0Domestic use 1,764 1,887 0.9 7.0
Exports 1,283 1,375 2.6 7.1Total use 3,047 3,262 1.6 7.1
Ending stocks 138 245 -4.0 77.2Percent
Stocks to use ratio 4.5 7.5Dollars per bushel
Average market price 9.97 8.90/10.40 1.6 -3.2
Lower S. American stocks in Fall 2009 boost U.S. exports in 2009/10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Brazil Argentina
Million Tons-13 million tonsor 470 mil bu
0
10
20
30
40
1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons
U.S. Soybean Exports1.375 bil bushels
China soybean imports now account for 54% of global trade
0
10
20
30
40
50
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Million Tons
42 million tons
0
20
40
60
80
1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10F
Mil. metric tons
U.S. Brazil Argentina
Global Soybean ExportsU.S. gains share vs S. America
U.S. Biodiesel Mandate . . .
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08F 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
Million gallons
0.40
2.55 2.691.70
1.37
0.85 0.43
1.85
0.86
0.71
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
May 2006 Jan 2007 Sept 2007 Sept 2008 June 2009
Billion gallons
Existing Planned
U.S. Biodiesel Production Capacity
Source: NBB website
U.S. Domestic Soybean Oil-based Biodiesel Production Margin
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150Cents per Gallon
Dollar per gal. blending credit expired Jan 1
Other fats and oils account for about half of total biodiesel production
0
200
400
600
Oct-0
6
Dec-0
6
Feb-0
7
Apr-0
7
Jun-0
7
Aug-0
7
Oct-0
7
Dec-0
7
Feb-0
8
Apr-0
8
Jun-0
8
Aug-0
8
Oct-0
8
Dec-0
8
Feb-0
9
Apr-0
9
Jun-0
9
Aug-0
9
Oct-0
9
Soybean Oil Other Oils and Fats
Soybean oil:84% 2006/07 59% 2007/08 45% 2008/09
Million lbs.
In the U.S. canola and palm oil continue to replace soybean oil in the
edible use category
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Soy Canola + Palm
Billion lbs.Canola + palm = 27% of 3-oil total vs. 13% in 2004/05
Brazil, Argentina Industrial Use of Soybean Oil
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Brazil Argentina
Million Tons
Vegetable oil used for EU biofuel production
0
2
4
6
8
10
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Million Tons 35% of global total
January 12, 2010
World Rice Production
Country or Region2008/09 estimate
2009/10 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2008/09
Million Tons Percent Percent
World 446.6 434.7 0.2 -2.7United States 6.5 7.0 0.7 7.9
Foreign 440.1 427.7 0.2 -2.8Brazil 8.6 7.8 -4.2 -9.0China 134.3 137.0 0.0 2.0India 99.2 84.5 1.8 -14.8Burma 10.2 10.7 0.0 5.7Pakistan 6.7 6.2 3.3 -7.5Thailand 19.6 20.5 0.0 4.6Vietnam 24.4 24.3 0.0 -0.4
January 12, 2010
U.S. Meat Production and Prices2009
forecast2010
forecastChange from
last monthChange from
2009Production Billion pounds Percent PercentBeef 25.95 25.48 0.0 -1.8Pork 23.00 22.64 1.0 -1.6Broilers 35.53 35.90 0.0 1.0Turkey 5.65 5.65 -0.4 0.1Total meat 90.94 90.48 0.2 -0.5
Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 82.68 89.50 0.0 8.2Hogs 41.24 46.00 3.4 11.5
Cents/lbBroilers 77.6 78.8 1.3 1.5Turkey 79.9 82.3 0.0 3.0
January 12, 2010
U.S. Milk Supply and Demand2009
forecast2010
forecastChange from
last monthChange from
2009Billion pounds Percent Percent
Production 189.2 188.4 0.3 -0.4Imports 4.1 4.2 0.0 4.2Commercial use 186.4 188.6 0.5 1.2Exports 4.0 4.8 0.0 20.2
CCC net removals 1/ Billion poundsButter 0.023 0.016 14 -30.4Cheese 0.002 0.002 100 -13.0Nonfat dry milk 0.248 -0.050 0 -120.2Dry whole milk 0.000 0.000
Average market price 2/ Dollars/cwtClass III 11.36 15.15 -2.6 33.4Class IV 10.89 15.15 0.7 39.1All milk 12.79 16.60 -0.9 29.8
1/ Includes products exported under the dairy export incentive program.2/ Prices are mid-point of published forecasts; milk of average fat test.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09
Food at Home
Food Away from Home
Percent
CPI for FoodChange from Previous Year
END