7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Yx}h| ylxm hmxjlcy

Xbm My`lmblt yx}h| ylxm ly cnijxmh lk xbm wmyxmtk ujtx na xbm imkxtjc Jkjxncljk Ucjxmj}# jx lxy kntxbmtkgjtolk# jkh ujtxljcc| jx xbm acnnt na j xbtn}ob'onlko hmutmyylnk# ijccmh xbm My`lmblt Djylk+

Innthlkjxmy6Cjxlx}hm6 9

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Djymclkm Yimkjtln

UMYMTJ djymclkm t}k

Xbm djymclkm t}k icmjtc| ybnwy hlyxlkix mtnylnk tjxmy ant

xwn jtmjy6 xbm gn}kxjlk ycnumy jkh xbm ucjlky+ Ymqmtjc

qjccm|acnnty jcyn bjqm cnw mtnylnk tjxmy+ Tn}obc| 25- na

xbm jtmj bjy ylg}cjxmh mtnylnk tjxmy na nqmt : xnk.bj.|t#

d}x nkc| j qmt| ygjcc jtmj mrumtlmkimy mtnylnk tjxmy na

nqmt :5 xnk.bj.|t+ Dlngjyy utnh}ixlnk n}xu}x ybnwy j

icmjt i}x hlaamtmkim dmxwmmk ht|cjkh ajtglko "gnyxc|

=55':555 `o.bj, jkh lttlojxmh ajtglko "x|ulijcc| cjtomt

xbjk 9=55 `o.bj,+ Ujyx}tmy nii}u| xbm lkxmtgmhljxm

tjkomy+

Ynlc mtnylnk

Dlngjyy utnh}ixlnk

Cjkhantgy

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Xmibkncno| Yimkjtln6

Inkxn}t ucn}oblko "MXB89,

Xnxjc numtjxlnk inyxy }khmt hlaamtmkx utjixlimy6' xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko 421 XT\.bj "4:1,

' inkxn}t ucn}oblko 421 XT\.bj "4:1,

Xbm jdnqm numtjxlnk inyxy lkic}hm tmkxlko namz}lugmkx xn lgucmgmkx mjib utjixlim

J bjtqmyx lkhmr ant otjlky na 8=- na xnxjc dlngjyy wjyjyy}gmh

KUQ wjy ijci}cjxmh nk 45 |mjt umtlnh djyly jx :5-hlyin}kx tjxm

Xbm utlim na otjlky ly 5+928 XT\.`o "5+:1,

Juuclijdlclx|

Xbm xmibkncno| ly juuclijdcm nk jtjdcm cjkh wlxbycnumy dmxwmmk 4 jkh 9=- "knx lk ucjlky jkh qjccm|

acnnty,+

Dlnub|ylijc lgujix6 ynlc mtnylnk

]khmt xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko ]khmt inkxn}t ucn}oblko

Juuclijdlclx|

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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Dlnub|ylijc lgujix6 ibjkom lk dlngjyy

Minkngli qljdlclx|

Kmx utnalx }khmt xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko Kmx utnalx }khmt inkxn}t ucn}oblko

KUQ }khmt xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko KUQ }khmt inkxn}t ucn}oblko

Inkxn}t ucn}oblko ly utnalxjdcm jy lx hnmy knx tmz}ltm mrxtj inyxy d}x lkitmjymy utnh}ixlnk+

Dlngjyy ibjkom Umtimkxjom dlngjyy ibjkom

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Xmibkncno| Yimkjtln6

_nqmk amkim jkh inkxn}t ucn}oblko "X]T5=,

Xnxjc numtjxlnk inyxy }khmt hlaamtmkx utjixlimy6' xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko 421 XT\.bj "4:1,

' wnqmk amkim jkh inkxn}t ucn}oblko 421 XT\.bj

"4:1wlxb jk lklxljc lkqmyxgmkx inyx na 4=55

XT\.bj ":5:8 altyx |mjt nkc|,# jkk}jc

gjlkxmkjkim inyx na =- na lkqmyxgmkx inyx

Xbm jdnqm numtjxlnk inyxy lkic}hm tmkxlko namz}lugmkx xn lgucmgmkx mjib utjixlim

J bjtqmyx lkhmr ant otjlky na 8=- na xnxjc dlngjyywjy jyy}gmh

Xbm clam na xbm xmibkncno| ly 45 |mjty+ Xbm utlim na otjlky ly 5+928 XT\.`o "5+:1, :5- hlyin}kx tjxm wjy }ymh ant ijci}cjxlko KUQJuuclijdlclx|

Xbm xmibkncno| ly juuclijdcm nk jtjdcm cjkh wlxb ycnumydmxwmmk 9 jkh 9=- "knx lk ucjlky jkh qjccm| acnnty,+

Dlub|ylijc lgujix6 ynlc mtnylnk

]khmt xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko ]khmt wnqmk amkim jkh inkxn}t ucn}oblko

Juuclijdlclx|

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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Dlnub|ylijc lgujix6 ibjkom lk dlngjyy

Minkngli qljdlclx|

KUQ }khmt xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko KUQ }khmt wnqmk amkim jkh inkxn}t ucn}oblko

Xbm xmibkncno| bjy# jiinthlko xn xbm gnhmc ylg}cjxlnky# xbm unxmkxljc xn hn}dcm |lmchy jitnyy g}ib na xbm

juuclijdlclx| jtmj+ Kmqmtxbmcmyy# xbm kmx utmymkx qjc}m na wnqmk amkimy jkh inkxn}t ucn}oblko ly kmojxlqm h}m

xn xbm y}dyxjkxljc lklxljc lkqmyxgmkx inyxy+ ]khmt xbmym ilti}gyxjkimy# xbm xmibkncno| ly }kcl`mc| xn dm jhnuxmh

}kcmyy uncli| lkimkxlqmy tmh}im xbm lklxljc inyxy+ Jcyn# xbm xmibkncno| bjy dmmk jyy}gmh xn tmz}ltm jkk}jc

gjlkxmkjkim inyxy mz}jc xn =- na xbm lkqmyxgmkx inyxy+ Utnh}ixlqlx| lkitmjymy jtm y}ib xbjx xbmym ijk dm

mjylc| inqmtmh+ J xblth ndymtqjxlnk wblib ijk dm gjhm ly xbjx xtjhlxlnkjc ucn}oblko jcyn ybnwy kmojxlqm

tmx}tky lk gnyx na xbm jtmj inkylhmtmh+ Xbly in}ch lkhlijxm xbjx ajtgmty jiimux cnwmt tmx}tk xn cjdn}t xbjk xbm

nuuntx}klx| inyx }ymh lk xbm ylg}cjxlnky+

Dlngjyy ibjkom Umtimkxjom dlngjyy ibjkom

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Uncli| Yimkjtln6

Y}dylhlylko wnqmk amkim "X]T5=,

H}m xn j blob lkqmyxgmkx inyx ant d}lchlko xbm wnqmk

amkim# wlxbn}x mrxmtkjc alkjkiljc lkimkxlqm lk jcc ujtxy

na xbm yx}h| jtmj wlhmyutmjh jhnuxlnk na xbm

xmibkncno| ly qmt| }kcl`mc|+ Lk xbly yimkjtln xbm maamixy

na j y}dylh| mz}jc xn =5- na xbm lkqmyxgmkx inyxy nk

utnalxjdlclx| na xbm xmibkncno| jkh xbm unxmkxljc ant

glxlojxlko cjkh hmotjhjxlnk jtm mrucntmh+

=5-

Utnalxjdlclx|6

Inyx'maamixlqmkmyy lkhlijxnty6

Xbm lkxtnh}ixlnk na =5- y}dylh| hnmy knx bjqm yloklalijkx lgujix jy xbm utnuntxlnk na xbm yx}h| jtmj wkmojxlqm minkngli ojlk tmgjlky xbm yjgm wlxb jkh wlxbn}x xbm y}dylh|+

Xbm xmibkncno| wjy tjk`mh altyx lk xbm yxj`mbnchmt mqjc}jxlnk djymh nk lxy umtantgjkim lk xbm mrumtlgmkx#wblib ly jcyn y}uuntxmh d| gnhmc n}xu}x+ Bnwmqmt# xbm lkqmyxgmkx inyxy wmtm lk xbm mrumtlgmkxjc ijym knxdntkm d| xbm cjkh }ymt# jkh jy y}ib lx in}ch bjqm dmmk jyy}gmh d| xbm ujtxlilujkxy xbjx xbmym wn}ch dm

y}dylhlymh+ Xbly yimkjtln ybnwy xbjx y}ib y}dylhlmy wn}ch dm tmz}ltmh xn yxlg}cjxm jhnuxlnk# jy mqmk j =5-

tmh}ixlnk lk lkqmyxgmkx inyx hnmy knx f}yxla| xbm lkqmyxgmkx+ Jk jhhlxlnkjc z}myxlnk wn}ch dm la y}ib blob

tjxmy na y}dylhlmy wn}ch yxlcc dm inyx'maamixlqm lk tmh}ilko mkqltnkgmkxjc hmotjhjxlnk+

_lxbn}x y}dylh| _lxb y}dylh|

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Ocndjc Yimkjtln6

Annh utnh}ixlnk

Xbm annh utnh}ixlnk yimkjtln ymcmixy xbm xmibkncno|

wlxb xbm blobmyx jotli}cx}tjc utnh}ixlqlx| "dlngjyy,

ant mjib imcc wbmtm j blobmt utnh}ixlqlx| xbjk lk xbm

djymclkm yimkjtln ly jiblmqmh+ Xbm lgucmgmkxjxlnk

inyxy ant xbm xnxjc yx}h| jtmj jtm ijci}cjxmh jkh inyx'

utnh}ixlqlx| tmcjxlnky jyymyymh+ Xn ajilclxjxm

ingujtlynk dmxwmmk hlaamtmkx yx}h| ylxmy# jcc inyxy

jtm mrutmyymh lk M}tn+

+ ?22 `o.bj

+ 15? `o.lkbjdlxjkx

Yinum ant lkitmjymh utnh}ixlnk

\lmch hlaamtmkim Umtimkxjom |lmch hlaamtmkim

Dlnub|ylijc lgujix6 |lmch hlaamtmkim

Xbm lgucmgmkxjxlnk na xbm gnyx utnh}ixlqmxmibkncno| lk mjib cnijxlnk wn}ch ymm |lmch

lkitmjym lk

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Yinum ant lkitmjymh utnh}ixlnk }khmt MXB89

\lmch hlaamtmkim Umtimkxjom |lmch hlaamtmkim

Dlnub|ylijc lgujix6 |lmch hlaamtmkim

Xbm lgucmgmkxjxlnk na tmh}imh xlccjom wn}ch ymm |lmch lkitmjym lk

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Ocndjc Yimkjtln6

Glklglvlko cjkh hmotjhjxlnk

Xbm glklglvlko cjkh hmotjhjxlnk yimkjtln ymcmixy xbm

xmibkncno| wlxb xbm blobmyx glxlojxlko maamix nk cjkh

hmotjhjxlnk nt knkm la xbm djymclkm ylx}jxlnk

hmgnkyxtjxmy xbm cnwmyx tjxm na cjkh hmotjhjxlnk+

Xbm lgucmgmkxjxlnk inyxy ant xbm xnxjc yx}h| jtmj jtm

ijci}cjxmh jkh inyx'utnh}ixlqlx| tmcjxlnky jyymyymh+

Xn ajilclxjxm ingujtlynk dmxwmmk hlaamtmkx yx}h|

ylxmy# jcc inyxy jtm mrutmyymh lk M}tn+

'51 xnk ynlc.bj

:182.xnk ynlc

Yinum ant tmh}imh mtnylnk

Tmh}ixlnk na mtnylnk "kmojxlqm qjc}my, Umtimkxjom na mtnylnk tmh}ixlnk "kmojxlqm qjc}my,

Dlnub|ylijc lgujix6 mtnylnk tmh}ixlnk

Tmh}ixlnk na mtnylnk lk

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Yinum ant tmh}imh mtnylnk }khmt MXB89

Tmh}ixlnk na mtnylnk "kmojxlqm qjc}my, Umtimkxjom na mtnylnk tmh}ixlnk "kmojxlqm qjc}my,

Dlnub|ylijc lgujix6 mtnylnk tmh}ixlnk

Tmh}ixlnk na mtnylnk lk

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Eskisehir

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My`lmblt# X}t`m|

Inkic}hlko tmgjt`y

Djymclkm ylg}cjxlnky ybnw xbjx xbm yx}h| ylxm mrumtlmkimy inkylhmtjdcm mtnylnk# myumiljcc| lk xbm ycnulkojtmjy0 tn}obc| 25- na xbm jtmj bjy mtnylnk tjxmy na nqmt : xnk.bj.|t# jcxbn}ob nkc| j qmt| ygjcc jtmjmrumtlmkimy mtnylnk tjxmy na nqmt :5 xnk.bj.|t+

Xbm xmibkncnolmy ylg}cjxmh jtm xbm xmibkncnolmy ant wblib almch mrumtlgmkxy wmtm inkh}ixmh+ Xbmymxmibkncnolmy wmtm a}txbmt yumilalijxlnky na tmgmhljxlnk nuxlnky ymcmixmh d| yilmkxlyxy jkh cnijc

yxj`mbnchmty xn jhhtmyy wjxmt mtnylnk utndcmgy+ Xbm xmibkncno| yimkjtln ybnwy xbjx inkxn}t ucn}oblko

"MXB89, onmy yngm wj| lk tmh}ilko xbm jtmj wlxb mtnylnk tjxmy otmjxmt xbjk 4 xnk.bj.|t atng jdn}x ?5 xn

15- na xbm juuclijdcm jtmj+ Gntm lgutmyylqm ly lxy maamix nk dlngjyy utnh}ixlnk# omkmtjxlko j gntm xbjk

:55- lkitmjym lk jdn}x