wtpvwar, terror & political violence wtpv oct 11.pdf · fnl officials accused the national...

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Debris and security tape surround the UN headquarters in Abuja following the 26 August attack

WTPVWAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE

BRIEFINGTABLE OF CONTENTS

Transnational terrorism 2

Profile: Middle East unrest 3

Worldwide political violence 4AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeMiddle East and North Africa

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ABUJA ATTACK REINFORCES NIGERIA TERRORISM CONCERNSIslamist militant group Boko Haram on 26 August claimed responsibility for an attack on the UN building in the capital Abuja that killed at least 18 people. The incident was Boko Haram’s first attack on an international target and indicates a significant expansion in scope for the group, which has previously focused on domestic targets such as police stations and government buildings. The group’s failure to attack an international organisation until now is largely attributable to the lack of such targets in its traditional north-eastern Nigeria strongholds.

Defence Minister Bello Mohammed on 20 September appealed to British High Commissioner Andrew Lloyd for assistance in improving the country’s counter-terrorism capabilities during a meeting in Abuja. The same day, President Goodluck Jonathan met UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss Nigeria’s response to terrorism threats. The appeal for greater foreign

counter-terrorism assistance underlines that the government is increasingly concerned by its inability to contain or find solutions to the emergent terrorist threat in the north

Islamist militancy has replaced Niger delta insecurity as the country’s principal security concern; Jonathan’s election in April prompted brutal violence in several northern cities and exposed the widening gulf between the south and the Muslim-majority north. If the president fails to dampen northern fears over marginalisation, domestic Islamist militancy originating in the north could become a regular feature of the political scene. Nevertheless, while foreign operators in Abuja now face an increased risk of militant activity, most of Boko Haram’s attacks are likely to continue to focus on government and security forces personnel, Christian buildings and drinking establishments.

OCTOBER 2011

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ALGERIA

Oil companies on 14 September put the airstrip at the Menzel Lejmat North oilfield – 140 miles (220km) from the southern oil-industry centre of Hassi Messaoud – in security lockdown because of a potential surface-to-air terrorism threat. The US embassy in the capital Algiers on 13 September warned of an imminent threat to expatriate flights from Hassi Messaoud to other southern oil sites.

The credibility of the threat is impossible to evaluate. The Algerian, Nigerian and Malian governments in recent months have warned of a proliferation of weapons from Libya, including surface-to-air missiles, benefiting main regional extremist group al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM), but little hard evidence is available. Despite evidence of a rise in arms-smuggling, the scale and extent to which this benefits QIM is in question.

If confirmed, the acquisition of man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADs) would increase the threat by providing QIM with a greater range than small-arms fire and suicide bombings. However, MANPADs require a line of sight and relative proximity to the target, and any increase in the threat is likely to be met by a significant increase in the presence of the security forces, which will mitigate the risks. Although a one-off attack remains possible, a sustained extremist campaign against oil-producing sites in the south is unlikely over the coming years.

SWEDEN ALERTPolice officers in the western city of Gothenburg in the early hours of 11 September arrested four men suspected of planning a terrorist attack. An art gallery hosting the launch of a major event was evacuated at around the same time as the arrests, and the police appear to have believed that the event was the group’s target. An estimated 400 people were evacuated after midnight from the gallery, located west of the city centre. The incident illustrates both the continuing existence of an Islamist extremist terrorist threat to Sweden and the authorities’ ability to disrupt threats at various stages.

Speculation that the event was targeted because Lars Vilks – who drew a controversial cartoon depicting the Muslim prophet Muhammad in 2008 – had stated that he would attend remains premature; media reports of targets or motives in the immediate aftermath of an incident are often unreliable. Nevertheless, the prior announcement of Vilks’ presence would have provided a credible potential motive, given the continuing traction that the ‘cartoon controversies’ have had in Islamist extremist communities. The issue is likely to remain a key motive for extremist plots in Nordic countries for several years.

AL-QAIDA ARRESTThe Pakistani military on 5 September announced that it had captured al-Qaida leader Younis al-Mauritani in Quetta (Pakistan) with technical assistance from US intelligence agencies. The reported arrest marks another significant counter-terrorism success against

al-Qaida’s core leadership. The development came shortly after US officials had declared that al-Qaida’s second-in-command, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, had been killed in a drone strike in Pakistan.

Documents and communications seized during the May raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad (Pakistan) have shed light on al-

Qaida’s central command structures and operations. This information is likely to be aiding counter-terrorism operations targeting key figures, further restricting the movements, communications and plans of the remaining leadership. However, the threat posed by the network persists, particularly from decentralised affiliates and like-minded individuals.

Material seized from bin Laden’s compound have shed light on al-Qaida’s operations

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ARAB SPRING

Eight months on from the start of the Arab Spring in Tunisia, the political and security situations in affected countries remain uncertain. In Tunisia and Egypt, demonstrations have been a regular feature of recent months, while the situation in Yemen remains volatile following the reported return from Saudi Arabia of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Meanwhile, the conflict between President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and its opponents in Syria remains intractable. In Libya, the ruling Transitional National Council (TNC) has established itself in the capital Tripoli, but the former regime strongholds of Bani Walid and Sirte currently remain out of reach.

TUNISIA

Persistent socio-economic and political discontent is likely to fuel further disturbances. Most recently, several people on 17-19 September were injured in clashes between anti-government protesters and police in the south-western town of Kébili. Youths reportedly attacked residences and

offices of police officials with stones, fire bombs and tear-gas canisters, injuring at least one officer. Violence is most likely in outlying provinces such as Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, Sfax and Kébili, where frustration with the pace of political reform and economic recovery is particularly high.

EGYPT

Around 1,000 activists affiliated to several groups on 19 September marched in the capital Cairo to protest against the proposed extension of emergency laws by the interim ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). At the same time, several groups comprising school teachers, doctors and public-transport workers, continued nationwide work stoppages. Strikes have been called over various demands, including the resignation of the SCAF, an end to emergency laws, and improved wages and working conditions.

YEMEN

Saleh reportedly returned to the country on 23 September. Previously, a ceasefire

between forces loyal to his regime and opposition forces was declared on 20 September following three days of fighting in the capital Sanaa, though reports subsequently emerged of sporadic clashes and shelling. Fighting broke out on 18 September after demonstrators reportedly came under fire from government troops and civilian supporters of the regime. At least 60 people were killed and hundreds of others injured. Violence spread to Taiz, where protesters claimed to have been shelled indiscriminately.

SYRIA

Unconfirmed reports on 12 September indicated that at least five people had been killed during raids on the homes of suspected anti-government activists in areas around the city of Hama; the authorities had previously blocked roads into the area, and cut electricity and communications networks. Meanwhile, the funeral procession of a prominent anti-government activist in the capital Damascus was attacked on 10 September. The security situation across the country remains volatile; rallies against the government are likely to continue indefinitely, while clashes are being reported across the country on a daily basis.

LIBYA

The TNC continues to face significant challenges in restoring governance and stability to areas under its control. While there is currently little evidence of tribal rivalries resulting in clashes, the council’s ability to control its forces is untested and factional fighting will become increasingly likely as former rebel forces seek to consolidate their gains. In addition, an increase in criminality and looting has been reported in Tripoli and is likely to continue. The proliferation of weapons and ammunition following the crisis is exacerbating the weakened security environment, meaning that criminals are likely to be armed.

Protesters chant slogans and hold posters in front of the Interior Ministry in the Egyptian capital Cairo

Profile:Middle East unrest

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Africa

Burundi: A provincial executive secretary of the opposition National Front for Liberation (FNL) on 29 August was shot dead in the northern town of Kayanza. FNL officials accused the national intelligence agency (SNR) of carrying out the killing.

Central African Republic: At least 12 people were killed between 11 and 13 September in clashes between rebel groups the Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace and Union of Democratic Forces for Unity. Fighting occurred in multiple locations in the north and north-east.

Congo (DRC): One person was killed and 12 others were injured on 6 September in clashes in the capital Kinshasa between security forces and supporters of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress.

Niger: The security forces on 15 September killed three suspected members of QIM during an attack on a convoy in the remote northern Adrar Rabouss valley (Agadez province). One soldier was also killed and two others injured.

Zambia: Police officials stated that some isolated incidents of violence took place in the capital Lusaka and the Copperbelt region during national elections on 20 September. At least six people were arrested in Kanyama constituency following election-related violence.

TO WATCHNigeria: The August attack on the UN headquarters in Abuja underlines that Boko Haram now presents a credible threat to foreign operators in central and northern Nigeria, though the group’s ability to strike south of the capital remains limited.

Americas

Colombia: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) leftist guerrilla group on 17 September attacked a convoy owned by Emerald Energy, a UK-based subsidiary of China’s Sinochem, in Caquetá department. One oil worker was killed in the attack.

Dominican Republic: A high-ranking anti-drug official was killed in the capital Santo Domingo on 18 September. The incident was the latest in a series of fatal shootings of members of the security forces.

Guatemala: At least four people on 16 September were injured when unidentified assailants detonated a grenade at a bus station in the northern town of Poptún. The explosion apparently targeted the offices of Fuentes del Norte bus company.

Haiti: Riot police on 14 September used tear gas to disperse protesters in the capital Port-au-Prince demanding the withdrawal of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti. The protests followed accusations that members of the force had sexually assaulted a local youth.

Mexico: The authorities on 18 September confirmed that the federal legislator for Guerrero State, Moisés Villanueva, who represented the main opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and who had been missing since 4 September, had been found murdered along with his driver near the town of Huamuxtitlán.

KEY DATE10 Oct - El Salvador: The leftist Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front opposition party and former guerrilla group will commemorate its founding in October 1980. Large-scale marches are likely and there will be a low risk of associated violence.

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TO WATCHNepal: Street protests and politically motivated violence are possible in the coming month because of heightened tensions surrounding the integration of former Maoist combatants into the army and compensation payments to them.

Afghanistan: Burhanuddin Rabbani, the chairman of the High Peace Council charged by President Hamid Karzai with negotiating a settlement with the Taleban, on 20 September was killed in a suicide-bomb attack by a suspected member of the Taleban. The attack occurred at Rabbani’s house in the centre of the capital Kabul.

Bangladesh: Seventy people on 19 September were injured in street marches in the capital Dhaka, Chittagong and Comilla as activists from the Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party, demonstrated to call for the release of imprisoned leaders.

India: An improvised explosive device on 7 September detonated at the entrance to the High Court in the capital Delhi as people were queuing to gain access, killing 11 people and injuring more than 60 others. Pakistan-based terrorist group Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami claimed responsibility for the attack, though intelligence agencies have yet to prove its direct involvement.

Indonesia: An estimated 1,500 employees of PT Nexus Engineering Indonesia on 20 September rioted on the island of Batam. The unrest was allegedly sparked off after a security supervisor struck a local staff member for arriving late for work. Rioters set fire to staff areas, guard posts and vehicles, and assaulted security guards.

Pakistan: A suicide car-bomb on 19 September detonated in the Defence Housing Authority area of Karachi, killing at least eight people. The bomb reportedly targeted the residence of Chaudhry Aslam, a senior counter-terrorism official at the Crime Investigation Department, who survived the attack.

Thailand: Three bombs on 17 September detonated in Sungai Kolok district in the southern province of Narathiwat, killing five people. The bombs, which were planted in a motorcycle, a cooking-gas canister and a car, targeted a local hotel and restaurant.

Asia

In-depth

AFGHANISTAN

Rabbani’s assassination provides yet another indication that the security environment remains very hostile. Militant organisations, including the Taleban, the Haqqani network and fighters loyal to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, are capable of operating across the country, and planning and executing sophisticated attacks. The Taleban is likely to continue targeting senior government and government-affiliated figures.

The political ramifications of the development are of particular concern. Rabbani’s departure from the political scene will deepen the sense of futility surrounding prospects for negotiations with the Taleban. As an ethnic Tajik, his participation in the talks with the Pashtun-majority Taleban conveyed much-needed legitimacy and gravitas that will now be difficult to sustain. His death will paralyse the already tenuous peace process, perpetuating uncertainty and insecurity.

Rabbani’s death is likely to exacerbate the country’s powerful ethnic tensions, particularly in Kabul and the north. Demonstrations in Balkh (where a Rabbani loyalist and powerful warlord, Atta Mohammed Noor, is governor) and Badakhshan (Rabbani’s home province) illustrate the potential for anti-Pashtun revenge violence and vigilantism. The

incident has also stoked strong anti-Pakistan sentiment and will worsen already tense relations with Pakistan, a vital participant in any Taleban settlement.

Born in Badakhshan in 1940, Rabbani twice served as president (1992-96, Nov-Dec 2001). During Taleban rule (1996-2001), he was a senior leader of the Northern Alliance, an umbrella organisation of anti-Taleban groups that was instrumental in the Taleban’s ultimate defeat in the northern region. He backed candidates against Karzai in the 2009 presidential election. At the time of his death, Rabbani led the United National Front, the largest opposition coalition in parliament. Karzai in October 2010 appointed him to the High Peace Council.

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Finland: The authorities on 7 September detained two Finnish nationals of Somali origin in the capital Helsinki on suspicion of financing and recruiting for terrorist groups. However, they were not suspected of planning attacks in the country.

Germany: Police in the capital Berlin on 8 September arrested a German national of Lebanese descent and a Palestinian national on suspicion of preparing a terrorist attack. The police had been observing the men for two months after they bought large quantities of chemicals that could have been used in an explosive device.

Italy: Clashes on 14 September broke out between anti-government protesters and the police in the vicinity of the parliament building in the capital Rome. Activists threw smoke bombs and other projectiles at the police, who responded with batons and attempted to force the demonstrators away from the city centre.

Russia: According to preliminary reports, two explosions in the early hours of 21 September occurred in the Dagestani capital Makhachkala, killing one police officer and injuring around 60 people. Late on 20 September three people were reported to have been killed in Makhachkala while transporting a bomb.

TO WATCHGreece: The two main trade-union confederations have called general strikes for 5 and 19 October in response to new austerity measures. Major protests with the potential for localised violence are likely during the strikes, particularly in the centre of the capital Athens.

Europe

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Middle East and North Africa

TO WATCHBahrain: While rumours that Saudi Arabian and UAE troops have returned to the kingdom in greater numbers than in March remain unconfirmed, the prospect cannot be ruled out. An increased police presence is already visible throughout the country, and protests are likely to be met with harsh security measures.

Algeria: Clashes between demonstrators and police on 5 September continued for a third day in the Diar Echems area of the capital Algiers; the protests were held in response to the authorities’ planned relocation of residents from the area. Separately, two suicide-bombers on 26 August blew themselves up at the military academy in Tipaza province, killing at least 16 officers and two civilians. QIM claimed responsibility.

Egypt: Protesters on 9 September tore down a newly built concrete wall outside the Israeli embassy in Cairo and entered the building’s consular section. Several Israeli security guards were trapped, but were later rescued by special forces.

Iraq: At least 20 people, including 13 civilians, on 14 September were killed when a car bomb detonated in a market in central Babil province. Previously, more than 20 people were killed and at least 30 others injured on 28 August when a suicide bomber detonated his explosives at a Sunni mosque in the west of the capital Baghdad.

Israel: Seven people on 29 August were injured in Tel Aviv when a Palestinian national drove a stolen taxi into a checkpoint. The man stabbed several people before being detained by the security forces.

South Sudan: The UN Mission in South Sudan on 26 August began deploying peacekeeping troops and civilian experts to the restive state of Jonglei following days of severe communal violence between the Lou Nuer and Murle tribes. The upsurge in violence in Jonglei culminated in August with an attack by the Murle tribe on the Lou Nuer in Uror County in which hundreds of people were killed.

Sudan: Clashes between the army and members of armed opposition group the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-North on 1 September broke out in Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile state. Fighting spread to Kurmuk and elsewhere in the state the following day.

In-depth

YEMENSaleh on 23 September returned to Sanaa from Saudi Arabia, where he had been receiving medical treatment after being seriously injured in an assassination attempt in June. Active hostilities between rival military factions and tribal fighters persist in various parts of the city.

Saleh’s return is a highly provocative move that risks aggravating hostilities in the capital and pushing the country into more widespread civil conflict. Two

of Saleh’s most powerful rivals – military leader Maj-Gen Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, who defected to the opposition earlier this year, and tribal chief Sadiq al-Ahmar – have consistently threatened to escalate their military activities should the president return.

Saudi Arabia’s motivation for allowing Saleh’s potentially incendiary return at such a pivotal moment remains unclear, though there is speculation that Saleh may announce his resignation imminently. Mediators may be calculating that this will help lower the political temperature, though Saleh’s resignation on its own appears highly unlikely to placate either his military rivals or street protesters at this stage.

The president’s record of stalling and failing to adhere to agreements means that the anti-Saleh camp will have no faith

that his resignation will lead to significant change. To carry any weight, such a move would need to be accompanied by a shake-up of other key personnel, particularly Saleh’s family members. His ‘trust deficit’ means that a mere pledge to stand down is likely to have little impact

The peaceful protest movement’s exasperation with the lack of progress in negotiations with the government has prompted increasingly bold moves, despite the very real risks that these entail. Some have welcomed Saleh’s return, saying that it makes it more likely that he will be put on trial. However, in the short term, the development will only heighten the charged atmosphere and increase the threat of fatal confrontations between demonstrators and pro-Saleh security forces.