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Wyoming’s Labor Market: A Brief Overview

Doug Leonard, Principal EconomistWyoming Department of Workforce Services, Research & PlanningDoug.leonard@wyo.gov(307) 473-3811

White House Business Council Roundtable, Casper, WY, June 24, 2011

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Outline

IntroductionWho is Research & PlanningRecent history

Long-term employment trends Labor force dynamics The unemployed New hires

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Who is Research & Planning

R&P is a separate, exclusively statistical entity.

R&P collects, analyzes, and publishes timely and accurate labor market information (LMI) meeting established statistical standards.

LMI makes the labor market more efficient by the public and the public’s representatives with the basis for informed decision making.

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Wyoming’s Labor Market: What Happened? Wyoming lost 20,600 jobs from December 2008

to December 2009 (-9.4%) Wyoming gained 4,000 jobs from December

2009 to December 2010 (+1.4%) Unemployment Insurance benefit payments

reached a record high in 2009 The average annual wage for men decreased in

2009 Many of those who lost jobs in 2009 remained

unemployed through the second quarter of 2010

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Historic Employment Trends

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Wyoming Average Annual Employment, 1939 - 2010 ('000s) and Monthly Employment January - April, 2011

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

1939

1942

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Jan-11

Apr-11

Date

Wyo

min

g Em

ploy

men

t ('0

00s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Wyoming Average Annual Employment, 2000 - 2010 ('000s) and Monthly Employment January - April, 2011

235

245

255

265

275

285

295

305

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11Date

Wyo

min

g Em

ploy

men

t ('0

00s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Overview of Labor Force Dynamics

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Labor Market Churn Although Wyoming employment rose steadily for

17 years (1987 – 2004), a substantial amount of entry and exit occurred

Wyoming imports labor from other states during expansion and subsequently exports labor during contraction

Inflow: People who worked in Wyoming during the current year who did not work in Wyoming during the prior year

Outflow: People who worked in Wyoming during the current year who did not work in Wyoming during the subsequent year

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Inflow and Outflow of Wyoming Workers, 1993 - 2010

-90,000

-80,000

-70,000

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Flow

InflowOutflow

Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database

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Net Flow of Wyoming Workers, 1993 - 2009

6,216

4,825

-150

2,590

4,1643,280

5,7514,931

6,188

1,086

5,5136,168

9,917

14,055

10,868

-515

-11,923-13,000-12,000-11,000-10,000

-9,000-8,000-7,000-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,000

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Net

Wor

ker F

low

Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database

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The Unemployed

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Re-Employment Rate of Wyoming UI Claimants by Sex, 2005 - 2009

77.2%

75.7%75.1%

64.6%

57.8%

73.2%74.0%

73.2%

67.2%

59.8%

55.0%

57.5%

60.0%

62.5%

65.0%

67.5%

70.0%

72.5%

75.0%

77.5%

80.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year Initial Claim Filed

Re-

Empl

oym

ent R

ate

Males Females

Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata

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Distribution of 2009 Unemployment Insurance Claimants by Educational Attainment

7, 0.0%

25,779, 65.2%

3,458, 8.7%

2,800, 7.1% 596, 1.5%6,898, 17.4%

Less Than High School High School or GED Associate's DegreeBachelor's Degree Master's Degree or Greater Unknown

Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata

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Re-Employment Rates of Wyoming UI Claimants by Educational Attainment, 2005 - 2009

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year Initial Claim Filed

Re-

Empl

oym

ent R

ate

Less Than High School High School Associates DegreeBachelors Degree Masters Degree or Greater

Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata

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Re-Employment Rates of Wyoming UI Claimants by Industry, 2005 - 2009

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year Initial Claim Filed

Re-

Empl

oym

ent R

ate

Natural Resources & Mining Construction Retail TradeLeisure & Hospitality State & Local Government

Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata

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Proportion Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants, 2000-2011 (Normalized)

7%8%9%

10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%Ja

n-00

Apr-0

0Ju

l-00

Oct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr-0

1Ju

l-01

Oct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr-0

2Ju

l-02

Oct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct-0

4Ja

n-05

Apr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct-1

0Ja

n-11

Date

% O

ut o

f Sta

te C

ontin

ued

Claim

ants

% Out of State Claimants12-Month Trailing Moving Average

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Nonresident UI Claimants

Nonresident UI claimants are not included in the calculation of unemployment rates – it’s done by place of residence

For February 2011, if we included the nonresident claimants in the calculation, Wyoming’s unemployment rate would have been 7.1% (seasonally adjusted), and increase of 0.9%

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New Hires

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What is a New Hire?

New Hire: A person who worked for ABC Construction Company in fourth quarter 2009 (2009Q4) who had no prior wage history with ABC Construction Company going back to 1992Q1

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New Hires: Links to Published Data

http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Wages_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Hours_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Skills_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Turnover_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Demographics_4Q.ht

m

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New Hires 1995Q1 - 2010Q4

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

1995

Q1

1995

Q4

1996

Q3

1997

Q2

1998

Q1

1998

Q4

1999

Q3

2000

Q2

2001

Q1

2001

Q4

2002

Q3

2003

Q2

2004

Q1

2004

Q4

2005

Q3

2006

Q2

2007

Q1

2007

Q4

2008

Q3

2009

Q2

2010

Q1

2010

Q4

Date

New

Hire

s

Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database

23Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

NAICS IndustryTotal New

Hires

New Hires Predicted to be Emp. In Next

Qtr.11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 1,467 99521 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas 9,549 8,28422 Utilities 329 32023 Construction 23,285 14,85731-33 Manufacturing 3,189 2,56842 Wholesale Trade 2,972 2,71244-45 Retail Trade 20,403 15,76548-49 Transportation and Warehousing 4,337 3,45151 Information 1,411 1,25852 Finance and Insurance 1,867 1,75153 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2,050 1,70154 Professional, Scientific, and Enterprises 4,038 2,96955 Management of Companies and Enterprises 106 7956 Administrative and Support and Waste 10,896 6,12561 Educational Services 7,173 6,43662 Health Care and Social Assistance 12,262 11,18571 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 2,689 2,04672 Accomodation and Food Services 33,548 21,92281 Other Services 4,956 3,75092 Public Administration 5,086 3,891

151,613 112,065

New Hires, 2009Q4 - 2010Q3

Total

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Occupation New HiresMedian Hourly

WageAll New Hires 112,065 $12.00Cashiers (41-2011) 4,557 $8.25 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer (53-3032) 4,492 $17.00 Retail Salespersons (41-2031) 4,435 $9.00

Waiters and Waitresses (35-3031) 4,242 $7.75 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (35-3021) 3,827 $8.00 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (37-2012) 3,655 $9.00 Construction Laborers (47-2061) 2,957 $13.77

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers (37-3011) 2,646 $10.00 All Other Extraction Workers (47-5099) 2,025 $16.00 Cooks, Restaurant (35-2014) 1,771 $9.50

Top Ten Occupations Worked by New Hires 2009Q4 - 2010Q3

Source: Wyoming New Hires Survey

25Source: Wyoming New Hires Survey

Occupation New HiresService

OrientationCritical

ThinkingReading Comp.

Technology Design

Operation and Control

Total 112,065 69.5 75.7 66.3 37.9 59.8Cashiers (41-2011) 4,557 94.0 61.5 58.8 27.9 54.4Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer (53-3032) 4,492 60.8 83.8 66.1 40.4 91.6Retail Salespersons (41-2031) 4,435 93.4 71.1 67.5 31.4 50.0

Waiters and Waitresses (35-3031) 4,242 92.0 60.3 51.7 12.3 39.1Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (35-3021) 3,827 91.7 60.1 51.4 20.5 54.7Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (37-2012) 3,655 75.2 43.6 42.1 11.5 30.9Construction Laborers (47-2061) 2,957 32.2 61.0 33.1 30.4 53.4

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers (37-3011) 2,646 47.3 58.2 31.8 30.9 71.6All Other Extraction Workers (47-5099) 2,025 41.6 73.8 39.1 40.7 81.1Cooks, Restaurant (35-2014) 1,771 60.9 64.2 66.9 23.8 55.0

J ob Skills Defined as "Important" by Employers Adding New Hires, 2009Q4 - 2010Q3

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To Summarize… Wyoming labor market volatility Displaced workers less likely to be working in

the year following layoff Substantial number of UI claimants located out

of state Number of new hires comparable to levels seen

in 1995 Substantial proportion of jobs filled by new hires

require little or no postsecondary education

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Research & Planning

http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi Telephone: (307) 473 – 3807 Mailing Address:

PO Box 2760Casper, WY 82602