zenithoptimedia’s global adspend expectations and the outlook for russia
DESCRIPTION
ZenithOptimedia’s Global Adspend Expectations and the Outlook For Russia. Fragile and debt laden western economies Eurozone crisis Little agreement on where the global economy is headed How to predict Advertising Expenditure in future years?. Forecasts for 79 markets over 31 years - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ZenithOptimedia’s Global Adspend Expectations and the Outlook For Russia
Fragile and debt laden western economies
Eurozone crisis
Little agreement on where the global economy is headed
How to predict Advertising Expenditure in future years?
• Forecasts for 79 markets over 31 years
• Dedicated central team
• 15 leading forecasts and guides published every year
• Tracked crashes and resurgences
• Underlying trends to share today
ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL ADSPEND EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA
1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend
2. Economic growth and the ad market
3. Global ad market rankings
4. Potential growth categories in Russia
ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL ADSPEND EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA
1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend
2. Economic growth and the ad market
3. Global ad market rankings
4. Growth potential of key categories
Dow Jones Hang Seng Nikkei 225 MICEX-18.0
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Decline in stock market value (%)
Decline in stock market value (%)
STOCK MARKET CRASHES THIS SUMMER
Source: ZenithOptimedia
DOES A STOCK MARKET CRASH MEAN A DROP IN ADSPEND?
Thailand 1997
Malaysia 1997
Singapore 1997
S. Korea 1997
USA 2000 UK 2000-100.0
-90.0
-80.0
-70.0
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
Decline in stock market value (%) Next year adspend growth (%)
Dotcom bubble bursts
STOCK MARKET CRASHES SOMETIMES PRECEDE ADVERTISING DOWNTURNS
Asian financial crisis
Source: ZenithOptimedia
BUT THEY ARE NOT BY THEMSELVES A RELIABLE INDICATOR
UK 1987 USA 1987 Canada 1987 Hong Kong 1997
USA 1997 USA 2001-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Decline in stock market value (%) Next year adspend growth (%)
Black Monday Asian financial crisis 9/11
Source: ZenithOptimedia
DOES A STOCK MARKET CRASH MEAN A DROP IN ADSPEND?
A crash in stock market values does not by itself mean ad expenditure is about to decline
Causal Connections:
...when an overvalued stock market is supporting excessive advertising
...if the market correctly anticipates a sharp downturn in global economic activity
ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA
1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend
2. Economic growth and the ad market
3. Global ad market rankings
4. Growth potential of key categories
LATEST GDP FORECASTS
2010 2011 2012 20130
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
World Developing markets RussiaDeveloped markets Eurozone
Source: Adjusted IMF % growth in GDP
ADSPEND GROWTH vs GDP GROWTH: GLOBAL
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
GDP growth (%)
Adsp
end
grow
th (%
)
Source: ZenithOptimedia
Strong correlation between GDP and Adspend
Other factors: new technology, intensity of competition
ADSPEND GROWTH vs GDP GROWTH: RUSSIA
-20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
GDP growth (%)
Adsp
end
grow
th (%
)
Source: ZenithOptimedia
Russia more volatile, with larger swings..
..but the same correlation applies
GLOBAL ADVERTISING SHRINKING AS % OF GDP
Source: ZenithOptimedia
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Advertising as % of GDPDot com bubble
AD EXPENDITURE AS % OF GDP BY REGION (2011)
MENARussi
a
Asia Paci
fic (ex. J
apan
)
C & E Europe
Latin Americ
a
Western Europe
WORLD AVERAGE
Japan
North Americ
a0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Source: ZenithOptimedia
RUSSIA: ADVERTISING TRENDING BACK UP AS % GDP
Source: ZenithOptimedia
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Advertising as % of GDP
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
-
+5.0
+10.0
GDP Adspend
GLOBAL ADSPEND AND GDP GROWTH YEAR-ON-YEAR % CHANGE, CURRENT PRICES
Source: ZenithOptimedia, IMF
Assumes European and US growth remains weak, but not in recession
Adspend growth lags GDP on global basis
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
-
+10.0
+20.0
+30.0
+40.0
GDP Adspend
RUSSIAN ADSPEND AND GDP GROWTH YEAR-ON-YEAR % CHANGE, CURRENT PRICES
Source: ZenithOptimedia, IMF
Assumes Russia GDP growth well ahead of Developed markets
Adspend growth ahead of GDP
ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL ADSPEND EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA
1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend
2. Economic growth and the ad market
3. Global ad market rankings
4. Growth potential of key categories
ADSPEND GROWTH BY REGION (2013 v 2010)YEAR-ON-YEAR % CHANGE, CURRENT PRICES
North America
Western Europe
Japan Asia Pa-cific (ex. Japan)
C & E Europe
Latin America
MENA Rest of world
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: ZenithOptimedia
Russia growing from 1.5% - 2.3% of total global Adspend
2010 Adspend 2013 Adspend
1. USA 151,665 1. USA 165,9772. Japan 46,153 2. Japan 47,6303. China 26,122 3. China 38,8544. Germany 23,791 4. Germany 25,4295. UK 18,086 5. UK 19,6566. Brazil 14,716 6. Brazil 17,5877. France 12,564 7. France 13,4658. Australia 11,246 8. Australia 12,3139. Italy 10,296 9. Canada 12,09810. Canada 10,041 10. Russia 11,413
TOP 10 ADVERTISING MARKETSUS$ million, current prices
Source: ZenithOptimedia
GLOBAL ADSPEND SHARE BY MEDIUM
Newspapers21.5%
Magazines9.8%
Television39.8%
Radio7.2%
Cinema0.5%
Outdoor6.7%
Internet14.4%
Newspapers17.9%
Magazines8.4%
Television40.5%
Radio6.9%
Cinema0.5%
Outdoor6.9%
Internet18.9%
2010 2013
Source: ZenithOptimedia
ADSPEND SHARE BY MEDIUM - RUSSIA
Newspapers4.1%
Magazines9.0%
Television54.6%Radio
5.1%
Cinema1.5%
Outdoor14.6%
Internet11.1%
Newspapers3.1% Magazines
7.6%
Television52.9%
Radio4.1%
Cinema1.5%
Outdoor13.9%
Internet16.9%
2010 2013
Source: ZenithOptimedia
ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA
1. Stock market fluctuations and adspend
2. Economic growth and the ad market
3. Global ad market rankings
4. Growth potential of key categories
FMCG OVERTAKEN BY OTHER CATEGORIES AS MARKETS DEVELOP
Retail24.4
%
FMCG19.7
%Services19.5%
Auto18.1
%
Media9.4%
Pharma
5.3%
Alcohol3.6%
1990
Auto30.0
%
Tele-coms20.2
%
Fi-nance14.8
%
Me-dia
14.4%
Fast food12.9
%
FMCG7.8%
2010
Source: ZenithOptimedia
AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - USA
FMCG OVERTAKEN BY OTHER CATEGORIES AS MARKETS DEVELOP
Retail24.4
%
FMCG19.7
%Services19.5%
Auto18.1
%
Media9.4%
Pharma
5.3%
Alcohol3.6%
1990
Auto30.0
%
Tele-coms20.2
%
Fi-nance14.8
%
Me-dia
14.4%
Fast food12.9
%
FMCG7.8%
2010
Source: ZenithOptimedia
AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - USA
RUSSIA STILL DOMINATED BY FMCG, THOUGH OTHER CATEGORIES ARE GROWING
FMCG
86.7%
Tele-com
s7.7%
Auto5.6%
2000
FMCG
56.8%
Ser-vices16.3
%
Auto8.3%
Tele-coms7.3%
Poli-tics
5.8%
Finance5.5%
2010
Source: ZenithOptimedia
AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - RUSSIA
HUGE GROWTH POTENTIAL OF NON-FMCG CATEGORIES
FMCG
56.8%
Ser-vices16.3
%
Auto8.3%
Tele-coms7.3%
Poli-tics
5.8%
Finance5.5%
Russia
Auto30.0
%
Telecom
s20.2
%
Fi-nanc
e14.8
%
Me-dia
14.4%
Fast food12.9
%
FMCG7.8%
USA
Finance, auto and telecoms: 21.1% Finance, auto and telecoms: 65.0%Source: ZenithOptimedia
AD EXPENDITURE BY TOP TEN CATEGORIES - 2010
ZENITHOPTIMEDIA’S GLOBAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIA
1. Stock market crashes don’t always mean
Adspend decline
2. Economic growth is closely tied to the ad market
3. Russia Adspend will grow faster than Developed
markets and join the Top Ten
4. Growth potential of major new categories is
likely to grow Adspend even faster