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“Security” in the EEA forward-looking studies

Global megatrends analysis and regional security implications of climate change, 7-8 December 2010

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Regarding the definition of security and

environment

EEA work

Way forward- examples

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freedom from fear

freedom from want

protection and empowerment

freedom from hazard impacts

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EEA

Security issues appear in the EEA assessments in different forms, ie:

Water security

Energy security

Food security

Resource security

With no naming

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uncertainties

complex and dynamic environment

forces of future change

PROJECTIONS

SCENARIOS

What are the prospects for the environment

in the pan-European region?

what if...

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Security as a driving force

PRELUDE scenarios - EEA: two scenarios are triggered by food security or energy security crises

Security as uncertainty

Security as an objective for the future

Global scenarios to 2025 - Schellexplore the three forces: • market incentives• communities• and regulation by the state. Three main forces drive towards different objectives: efficiency, social cohesion, and

justice and security. The forces display elements of mutual exclusivity.

UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) scenarios1. Markets First 2. Policy First 3. Security First 4. Sustainability First

1. Low Trust Globalisation – security and efficiency2. Open Doors 3. Flags — security and community values

Source: Shell, 2005.

1. Evolved Society Scenario2. Europe of Structure (Clustered Networks Scenario)3. Europe of Innovation (Lettuce Surprise U Scen.) 4. Europe of Cohesion (Big Crisis Scenario) Source: EEA, 2007b and www.eea.europa.eu/prelude.

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Forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans

In particular the role of consumption and production patterns

Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and

consumption patterns

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SOER 2010 Global megatrends

Security is a key issue in the megatrends development in the future:– Intensified global competition for resources – Decreasing stocks of natural resources

– Resources supply security

– Increasingly severe consequences of climate change – food, water, health, ecosystem services security

Security impacts of megatrends development in the future– From an unipolar to a multipolar world – Increasing global divergence in population trends – populations

aging, growing, migrating– Living in an urban world– Disease burdens and the risk of new pandemics

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SOER 2010 Synthesis

Resource overexploitation and changes in climate affect quality of life, potentially undermining social and political stability and sustainability of local ecosystem services (livelihoods of people). Combined with demographic pressures, decreasing socio ecological resilience can add a new dimension to the environment and security debate, as conflict around scarcer resources is likely to intensify and add to migration pressures.

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Way forward - Example 1Global megatrends – links to security

Analyses from National Intelligence Council, US:Global megatrends impacts to national security

Aging of population will pose budget challenges (decide on guns or wheel chairs) and manpower shortages for Europe and Japan:

- if EU and Japan do accept large scale migrations – could lead to ethnic and racial tensions and xenophobic policies which will influence global governance

- Failure to deal with this challenges in EU an Japan will lead to slowing down of global economy

- Youth cohorts in emerging economies, rapid economic growth and urbanization:

- If China and India fail to manage this, it could influence radical political movements, internal instability, international terrorism

- Increased migration, travel and trade are likely to accelerate the transfer of infectious diseases

These impacts are not inevitable, as there are many uncertainties we need to deal with and policy options we can choose.

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Way forward- Example 2Analyses of pathways and archetypes

• Environment is contributor, but less than political, economic, historic… factors

• Global megatrends analyses showed that in the future environment will play increasingly important role.

• Only case studies approach, no systemic conclusions.

• Further empirical studies needed – Why critical constellations escalated into

the conflict (the role of environment)?Analyse archetypes of these critical constellations

Quantitative methods can contribute to recognition of linkages between structural components but are not sufficient to address complex relations which can not be modelled and can be address only by interdisciplinary teams

Environment stress

floods,droughts

lack of arable land,

water,

air pollution,

shortage of fuel wood

Socio-economic context

Pathways Impacts to security

economic decline (more for poor than for rich)

Migrations

Social fragmentation

Inequality

Erosion of civil society

Curtailment of the state

Urban violence

Conflicts

Wars

Interantainal

Local communities tensions

Cause-effect chainArchetypes of critical constellations

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Thank you

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Regional workshops: EE, CA,…Global workshop

OSCE security implications of climate change – scenarios

UNEP GEO

UNEP ASEF

NATO

ENVSEC

EEA

Global driving forces Scenarios

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NR scarcity Consumption

Climate change impacts - regional in wider Europe

water security food security energy security resource security

Human security (wars, international legal disputes, intercommoned tensions, exacerbated tensions..)

Global Megatrends(STEEP driving forces)