1 the wjp rule of law index alejandro ponce the world justice project april, 2013
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1
The WJP Rule of Law Index
Alejandro PonceThe World Justice Project
April, 2013
The WJP Rule of Law Index in a nutshell2
The ROL Index is a quantitative assessment tool designed to offer a comprehensive picture of the extent to which countries adhere to the rule of law in practice.Contribution:
1. Comprehensive definition of Rule of Law2. New data:
⁘Views and experiences of random ordinary people⁘Views and opinions of experts
3. Quantification of 48 rule of law outcomes in 97 countries obtained from more than 400 variables.
MotivationConsensus within the international community in support of the rule of law.
“Establishing respect for the rule of law is fundamental to achieving a durable peace in the aftermath of conflict, to the effective protection of human rights, and to sustained economic progress and development.” (United Nations)
Yet there is little agreement about what constitutes the rule of law and what its current status is
Challenges in defining the rule of law
1. Thin vs. thick
2. Ends vs. means
3. Western tradition
WJP Rule of Law Index
WJP Rule of Law Index
State DutiesChecks
Measurement Approach8
1. Perspective of the ordinary person:
2. Two sources of entirely new data:⁘ A general population poll (GPP): Probability sample -
1,000 respondents per country (three largest cities).⁘ Qualified respondent’s questionnaires (QRQ):
Completed by in-country experts in civil and commercial law; criminal justice; labor law; and public health.
Botero J. and Ponce A., Measuring the Rule of Law. WJP Working Paper # 1 (2011). Available on-line at: www.worldjusticeproject.org
Examples of questions
In the last 3 years, have you or someone in your household, been subjected to physical abuse by the police or the military? [If yes] Did you or anyone else report the crime to the police or other authority? (GPP)
Assume that a poor person is arrested on suspicion of aggravated robbery. Assume that the suspect is taken into custody and detained at a local police station in the city where you live. How likely is it that the police interrogators inflict minor physical harm on the detained suspect to admit the crime? (QRQ)
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Measurement Approach
Building the scores11
400 variables
48 sub-factors and 9 factors
8. Effective criminal justice
Building the scores8.1 Criminal investigation is effective.
8.2 Criminal adjudication system is timely and effective
8.7 Due process of law and the rights of the accused.- Presumption of innocence - Arrest and pre-trial detention - Torture and abusive treatment to suspects- Legal representation- Access to translators- Evidence- Rights of prisoners
30 questions
Validity checks14 1. Face validity
2. Rely on several variables
3. Include the assessments of experts in different disciplines and the general public
4. Check our results against qualitative and quantitative third party sources.
5. Sensitivity analysis to assess how variation in the assumptions (including missing data, weighting, normalization, or aggregation) and the samples can alter our estimates
15 1) Definition: ⁘Different definitions and value structures (Uwa
community in Colombia).⁘Different legal architectures (Parliamentary democracy,
presidential democracy, kingdom).⁘Different goals (e.g. Criminal system: Retribution and
deterrence in USA; rehabilitation and social harmony in Japan).
2) Measurement:⁘Cross-cultural differences.⁘Sensitive questions.⁘Measurement error.
3) Sampling: Rural vs. urban.
Acknowledging limitations
Rule of law in the world
Aggregate rule of law score
Rule of law and GDP per capita
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,0000.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Ghana
Cameroon
GDP per capita (current US$)
WJP
Rul
e of
Law
Inde
x (A
vera
ge sc
ore)
Civil justice in the U.S.
Civil justice in the U.S.
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Estonia: Ranks in the top 20 in 7 dimensions
Russia: Deficiencies in checks and balances (92/97)
Turkey: 39th out of 97 in regulatory enforcement, 76th in fundamental rights
Aggregate rule of law score
Bribery in Sub-Saharan AfricaDid you (or the person living in your household) have to pay a bribe in order to receive medical attention at any Public hospital or clinic?
Sierra Leone
Zim-babwe
Malawi Tanzania Cameroon
Zambia Uganda Senegal Cote d'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
AccountabilityEgypt Iran Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia UAE
In practice, the government's power is not concentrated in one person, but is distributed among different independent branches, for instance the President or Prime Minister, the Congress or Legislative body, and the judges.
0.58 0.26 0.65 0.90 0.68 0.64 0.38
Government officials are sanctioned for misconduct
0.49 0.35 0.55 0.39 0.48 0.48 0.71
Source: The World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2012-2013
A tool for discussing country-specific findings
Colombia, November 15, 2010:
“(...) Another important organization that promotes justice around the world, the World
Justice Project, just released its report entitled Rule of Law Index, and it includes Colombia… If we review the area of access to justice, we find that we get a score very close to zero on the effectiveness of the criminal investigation system… these reports, that are known on a global scale, must make us turn on our alarms. You—the judiciary—and us—the government—together with Congress, must put all our effort to achieving a more efficient and effective criminal justice system.”
Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia
Colombia: Argument for reform
Mexico: Delivery of Justice26
0
⁘For more information and data, please visit our website: www.worldjusticeproject.org
Thank you
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WJP Rule of Law Index
Definitions: Rachel Kleinfeld "Competing definitions of the Rule of Law"
1. Government bound by law2. Equality before the law3. Law and order4. Predictable, efficient justice5. Lack of state violation of human rights
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Statistical Tests on the WJP Rule of Law Index
• In summary, “the JRC analysis suggests that the conceptualized multi-level structure of the WJP Rule of Law Index is statistically coherent and no dimension is dominated by any of its underlying components. Country ranks across the eight dimensions are also fairly robust to methodological changes related to the estimation of missing data, weight, or aggregation rule (less than ± 1 position shift in 90% of all cases).”
Saisana, M., and Saltelli, A., ‘Statistical Tests on the WJP Rule of Law Index 2011’. http://worldjusticeproject.org/sites/default/files/jrcaudit_wjpindex2011.pdf
Saisana, M., and Saltelli, A., ‘Rankings and Ratings: Instructions for Use’, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 2011, Volume 3, Issue 2. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayIssue?decade=2010&jid=ROL&volumeId=3&issueId=02&iid=8394462#
Statistical tests of the WJP Rule of Law Index
Middle East and North Africa
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%Mena Upper Middle Income
Discrimination against women and religions minorities remains an area of concern Imagine that the local police detain two persons equally suspected of committing a crime. In your opinion, which of the following characteristics would place one of them at a disadvantage?
Latin America & the Caribbean
Global Ranking
Limited government powers 56 / 97
Corruption 57 / 97
Order and Security 72 / 97
Fundamental rights 49 / 97
Open government 52 / 97
Regulatory enforcement 54 / 97
Civil Justice 63 / 97
Criminal justice 68 / 97
Sanctions for misconduct in LAC
Example: Assume that a high-ranking government officer is taking government money for personal benefit and one of his employees witnesses this conduct, reports it to the relevant authority, and provides sufficient evidence to prove it. Assume that the press obtains the information and publishes the story. Which one of the following outcomes is most likely? (data for Mexico)
The accusation is completely ignored by the authorities
An investigation is opened, but it never reaches any conclusions
The high-ranking government officer is prosecuted and punished (through fines, or time in prison)
0 20 40 60 80 100
21
59
20
% of respondents
Latin America, as a region, achieves the second lowest score in factor 1.5 “Government officials are sanctioned for misconduct”
Factor 7: Civil Justice
55% of Chinese respondents answered that judges decide most cases according to “What the government tells them to do”.
www.worldjusticeproject.org
What the law says
What powerful private interests tell them to do
What the government tells them to do
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
39%
6%
55%
Judicial independence in China% of respondents answering that most judges decide cases
according to:
Middle East and North Africa
Global Ranking
Limited government powers 53 / 97
Corruption 46 / 97
Order and Security 48 / 97
Fundamental rights 76 / 97
Open government 57 / 97
Regulatory enforcement 49 / 97
Civil Justice 46 / 97
Criminal justice 54 / 97
Latin America & the Caribbean
Chile and Uruguay rank in the top 25 in five dimensions
Brazil: Best performer among BRIC countries, but crime is high
Mexico: Weak in corruption, security, and criminal justice
Venezuela is the weakest performer in the region
Aggregate rule of law score
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ghana ranks first among low-income countries in four dimensions
Zimbabwe: Deficiencies in checks and balances (96/97)
Botswana ranks first in the region in seven dimensions and top 25 globally in six.
Corruption is a problem throughout the region
Aggregate rule of law score
South Asia
Global Ranking
Limited government powers 60/ 97
Corruption 75 / 97
Order and Security 82 / 97
Fundamental rights 69 / 97
Open government 71 / 97
Regulatory enforcement 75 / 97
Civil Justice 81 / 97
Criminal justice 59 / 97