10 Trends Driving the Future of Book Publishing

PUBLISHING: EVOLUTION, DISRUPTION & THE FUTUREJune 12, 2013

Mark Coker Founder, Smashwords

Twitter: @markcoker

My Backstory

Publishers Said “No”

• Despite the great efforts of our agent, every major New York publisher said NO (TWICE!)

I evaluated our options

1. The rational option Accept failure, give up and cry

2. The irrational option Believe in ourselves

Fix the problem

I Contemplated the Problem

I imagined millions of other writers just like us

Silenced

I Concluded…

• The old model of print publishing was broken

• Print publishing had become harmful to…

Writers

Readers

Publishers

Books

The Culture of “NO”

• Risk mitigation leads to a “Culture of NO”

• Most authors rejected

• Publishers unable to take a risk on every author

• Publishers rejecting “Black Swans,” books that would have become hits and classics

I contemplated the opportunity

• What would happen if someone could say YES to EVERY writer?

My Answer: SmashwordsLaunched in 2008

• FREE ebook publishing platform

• FREE ebook printing press

• Distribution to major ebook stores

• Share best practices secrets

How Smashwords Works

1. UPLOAD

• Upload a Microsoft Word file, formatted to our Smashwords Style Guide

• Ready for immediate sale online

2. DISTRIBUTE

• Distribution to major retailers

3. GET PAID

• Author receives 85% of net

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ebooks published at Smashwords

1406,000

28,800

92,000

191,000

230,000 June 2013

Enough about me.

Let’s talk about your future as an author or publisher

WE LIVE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES

CHANGE BRINGS BOTH THREAT AND OPPORTUNITY TO AUTHORS AND PUBLISHERS

YOUR REACTION DETERMINES YOUR OUTCOME

Let’s examine the forces of change, and what these changes mean for your future

10 TRENDS THAT WILL TRANSFORM THE FUTURE OF PUBLISHING

TREND ONE:

The Rise of Ebooks

Screens are the new paper

A blast from the past: US ebook market share in 2008

Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ebooks as a percentage of US wholesale trade market

Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org. 2012 Smashwords estimate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ebooks to overtake print

Print books

EbooksUnitsDollars

Print books

Ebooks

Why ebooks are hot

• Screens offer better reading experience than paper

•

Changeable font size A B C D• Ebooks offer better consumption experience

• Lower cost than print

• Convenient sampling and purchasing

• Huge selection

TREND TWO

Bookselling moving to the Web

US Percentage of book purchases made online vs B&M, Print and E-

Brick &Mortar

Web

Today?

Bookselling moves to the Web

• Brick and mortar stores disappearing

• Decline of print

• Consumer drivers:• Price

• Convenience

• Selection

• Implications for publishers…

TREND THREE

Democratization of Publishing

Publishers Once Controlled Publishing

• Publishers controlled the…• Printing press

• Access to retail distribution

• The knowledge necessary for professional publishing

Today, authors have free tools to e-publish

• FREE ebook printing press

• Ebook distribution available to all

• The knowledge of professional best practices is free and available to all

Publishers losing their monopoly

• Writers no longer need publishers to publish, distribute and sell

• Writers asking two dangerous questions:

1. Do I need a publisher?

2. Will a publisher harm my ability to reach readers?

TREND FOUR

Self Published Ebook Authors Gaining Competitive Advantage over

Publishers

Benefits of Indie Authorship

• Indie ebook author advantages

• faster time to market

• greater creative control

• lower expenses

• better distribution to global market

• immortal ebooks never go out of print

• lower prices to consumers

• earn more per book

QUADRUPLE +

Indie Ebook Authors Earn Higher Percentage of List Price

• Indies earn more at lower prices

• At $2.99, indies earn ~$2.00. Trad. author would have to price at $10-$15.00

• Lower price = reach more readers = more sales at higher profits per sale

• Higher price = reach fewer readers

60-80% 12-17%

Indie Traditional

TREND FIVE

Traditionally published authors suffering from high prices

Book buyers are price sensitive

Authors Yield Two Benefits from Every Sale

1. Money from the sale

• Unit sales X royalty per unit = profit

2. Gain a reader

• Readers lead to more readers

Pricing strategy essential to maximize both

How Price Impacts Units Sold

What Price Yields the Greatest Author Earnings?

TREND SIX

Print is Dead for Most Self-Published Authors

(and will become less and less important to traditionally published

authors)

Print is Dead

• Brick and mortar bookstores disappearing

• Most self-pubbed authors don’t have access to brick and mortar distribution

• Customers choosing low cost ebooks over high-priced print books

• Exceptions:

• Face to face print sales will continue

• Some books are meant for print (for now)

• Specialty souvenir books sold in non-traditional outlets

TREND SEVEN

Ebooks are going global

The Global Ebook Opportunity

• Countries outside the US are entering the exponential growth phase of their ebook markets

• Ebook retailers going global

• Apple iBookstore (51 countries), Amazon (12), Kobo (14+), B&N (US, U.K.+)

• 44% of Smashwords/iBookstore sales global

TREND EIGHT

Big NY Publishers getting into self publishing

In July 2012, the parent company of Penguin acquired Author Solutions

Author Solutions earns over 2/3 of its income selling over-priced services to authors

$25,000 publishing packages!

Blood sucking parasites

TREND NINE

The Previous Stigma of Self-Publishing is Disappearing

Stigmas to reverse

Aspire Traditional

Aspire Indie

Today?

Aspire Indie

Aspire Traditional

5 yrs ago Future?

TREND TEN

Indie Authors Are Beginning to Outsell Traditionally Published Authors

Indies are Now Out-Publishing Big Publishers

• Self-published ebooks scaling all the bestseller lists

• Every week, indie ebooks in retailer bestseller lists of every retailer

• Multiple Smashwords authors have hit New York Times bestseller list in the last year

• Prediction: Within three years, most bestselling ebooks will be self-published ebooks

June 11, 2013 at Apple iBookstore

• Abbi Glines with Forever Too Far• #1 Worldwide today

The Plan Forward

The 10 Trends Create a Future that Benefits Self-Published Authors and…

Disadvantages Publishers

The Plan Forward for Writers

• You’re in charge now

• You decide when you graduate from writer to published author

• Honor your readers

• You have the opportunity to publish…• Faster

• Smarter

• More profitably

• at lower prices

The Plan Forward for Publishers

• The good news: You’re still needed• Not all writers want to self-publish

• The bad news: It’ll get more difficult to add value in excess of your toll

• Do for authors what they cannot and will not do for themselves

• Abandon culture of NO

Final Thoughts

• There’s never been a better time to reach readers with the magic of books

• Traditional Publishing vs. Indie is not an either/or

• There’s never been a better time to be in publishing

• Add value!

Thanks for considering the future.

Free Ebook Publishing Resources

• Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (best practices of successful authors)

• Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market any book)

• Smashwords Style Guide (how to format an ebook)

Thank you for considering the future!

Q&AConnect with Mark Coker and Smashwords:

Web: www.smashwords.com

Blog: blog.smashwords.com

LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/markcoker

Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker

HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker

Twitter: @markcoker