2010 Homicide Prediction

By Kevin SullivanKantivut Kanjad

Nirav Navi, MarawanMahmoud

Group A

Homicide Rate

Income

Unemployment Rate

Gang Presence/Activity

Dropout Rate

Weapons Licensed/Unlicense

d

Historical Data

Potential Factors

Homicide Rate

Historical Date

Income

Unemployment

Rate

Potential Factors

Income

Homicides

?

Income

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

2005

2005

2005

2005

2006

2006

2006

2006

2007

2007

2007

2007

2008

2008

2008

2008

2009

2009

2009

225000

230000

235000

240000

245000

250000

255000

260000

Income

Income / Homicide

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

2005

2005

2005

2005

2006

2006

2006

2006

2007

2007

2007

2007

2008

2008

2008

2008

2009

2009

2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Homicide

Income / Homicide

{Homicide}{Income}

Income / Homicide

Unemployment

Homicides

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Unemployment

Jan AprJu

lOct Jan Apr

Jul

Oct Jan AprJu

lOct Jan Apr

Jul

Oct Jan AprJu

lOct

0

5

10

15

20

25

Homicide

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Unemployment / Homicide

Jan AprJu

lOct Jan Apr

Jul

Oct Jan AprJu

lOct Jan Apr

Jul

Oct Jan AprJu

lOct

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Unemployment

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Unemployment / Homicide

Homicide

Unemployment

Unemployment / Homicide

USING OUR PAST TO

PREDICT OUR FUTURE

Historical Data

Zip Code Total 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg 5-Y Avg 3-Y Avg 2-Y63115 106 11 24 27 24 20 21 24 2263113 92 21 9 16 22 24 18 21 2363107 78 15 17 12 17 17 16 15 1763112 69 13 9 17 16 14 14 16 1563120 69 18 13 15 13 10 14 13 1263118 41 5 5 11 10 10 8 10 1063106 38 5 6 8 12 7 8 9 1063147 32 7 4 5 8 8 6 7 863104 27 4 11 1 5 6 5 4 663111 22 5 2 6 4 5 4 5 563116 22 2 7 4 4 5 4 4 563110 19 3 4 2 9 1 4 4 563108 16 7 4 2 3 0 3 2 263103 13 2 2 0 3 6 3 3 563102 9 1 0 5 1 2 2 3 263101 3 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 163139 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 163109 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Number of Homicide in St. Louis

St. Louis 5-Year Average Homicide Heat Map

63147

63120

63115

6310763112 63113

63106

63101

63102

63108

63110

63104

63139

63116

63118

63111

63109

2005-2009 Homicide Map

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

5

10

15

20

25

30

631156311363107631126312063118631066314763104

Yearly Homicide Record of The Top 9 Zip Code

Zip Code Total 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-0963115 106 13 3 -3 -463113 92 -12 7 6 263107 78 2 -5 5 063112 69 -4 8 -1 -263120 69 -5 2 -2 -363118 41 0 6 -1 063106 38 1 2 4 -563147 32 -3 1 3 063104 27 7 -10 4 163136 23 2 -3 1 -363116 22 5 -3 0 163111 22 -3 4 -2 163110 19 1 -2 7 -863108 16 -3 -2 1 -363103 13 0 -2 3 363102 9 -1 5 -4 163133 4 2 -1 -1 163137 3 1 -1 2 -263101 3 1 -1 1 063139 1 0 0 0 163109 1 -1 0 0 063105 1 -1 0 0 0

Yearly Change on Homicide Record of The Top 9 Zip Code

05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

63115631136310763112631206311863106631476310463136

Yearly Homicide Record of The Top 9 Zip Code

January

February

March

AprilMay

JuneJuly

August

Septem

ber

October

November

Decem

ber0

5

10

15

20

25

20052006200720082009

Monthly Homicide Record in the last 5 Years

Calculate % Change of each Year

Identify the Hi/Lo %Change

Calculate the %Change Average

Calculate the High/Lo Homicide

Calculate the Homicide Average

Apply the Probability to the Homicide Average

Month ProbabilityJanuary 0.056851312February 0.049562682March 0.064139942April 0.078717201May 0.097667638June 0.099125364July 0.087463557August 0.093294461September 0.097667638October 0.087463557November 0.102040816December 0.086005831

January

February

March

AprilMay

JuneJuly

August

Septem

ber

October

November

Decem

ber0

0.020.040.060.08

0.10.12

Probability By Month

Probability

Zip Code Probability Zip Code Probability63115 0.154744526 63111 0.03211678863113 0.134306569 63110 0.02773722663107 0.112408759 63108 0.02043795663120 0.100729927 63103 0.01897810263112 0.100729927 63102 0.01313868663118 0.059854015 63133 0.00583941663106 0.054014599 63137 0.00437956263147 0.046715328 63101 0.00437956263104 0.039416058 63105 0.00145985463136 0.033576642 63109 0.00145985463116 0.032116788 63139 0.001459854

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

5

10

15

20

25

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Pridicted 2010 Homicide

Predicted 2010 Monthly Homicide

2010 Predicted Homicide Map

Q/A