2011 11 29 migbank daily technical analysis report
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8/3/2019 2011 11 29 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3480 1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) 1.3480
GBP/USD Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup.
USD/CHF Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.
AUD/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 120.25 121.20/123.00/125.72 119.30
EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP Look to sell higher.
EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230
GOLD SHORT 3 1680 1595/1450/1300 (Entered 23/11/2011) 1740
SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT29 November, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 29 November, 2011
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Temporary unwinding from oversold conditions.
EUR/USD is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, it is
still likely to see the bearish impulsive move extend from key overhead
resistance (primarily a 2 year trend and its long-term 200-day average).
Bearish sentiment also remains anchored by heightened contagion fears
driven from the greater European sovereign debt risk.
A sustained close beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger
downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870
(2011 major low). Expect resistance to cap at 1.3610 and 1.3730.
Keep an eye on highly correlated risk-related proxies, such as the S&P500
and AUD/USD, which both continue to exhibit downside presssure.
Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and is fast
approaching the recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs
(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain
strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3480
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA (1.4094)
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
UPTREND(2 YEARS)
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE
1.4000
1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
EXTREMENET
US $ SHORTPOSITIONS
9 KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)
1
USDINDEX
200-DMA(75.75)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP11.9%CAD 9.1% SEK 4.2% CHF 3.6%
9 MONTHHIGH
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Second leg higher initiated in recovery phase.
GBP/USD saw a minor recovery higher in the hourly timeframe. Today’s
break back over 1.5566 has likely initiated a second leg higher in the
recovery from 1.5423. Scope is now seen for a return to the 1.5700 region.
We remain wary of the generally rangebound nature of the market in the
medium-term timeframe, favouring a return to 1.6167.
A sustained break under 1.5272 is required to turn the medium-term bias
decidedly bearish.
We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulation
of strategy.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Minor rebound capped at 78.24 (DeMark™ Level).
USD/JPY’s minor rebound is being capped at 78.24 (DeMark™ Level) .
Moreover, downside risks remain, with the growing probability of a third
price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially
even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
to call the market bottom.
This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained
move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.
Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal
Webinar: USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change
Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
82.00
83.30
USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)
QUAKESHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POSTG7
MOVE (I)HIGH
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
PIR III
MONTHLY DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 – 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNANTICIPATE
SBREAKOUT(85-79)
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Break over 0.9316 strengthens medium-term outlook.
USD/CHF saw a break back over 0.9316 last week. This structural break
over the October high strengthens the medium-term structure. However,
scope is seen for a corrective phase lower, with resistance anticipated close
to 0.9600, should further strength follow. Demand for Swiss Francs is likely
to continue while yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds remain
elevated, currently trading at 6.570% and 7.320% respectively.
We continue to monitor the German sovereign yield curve with ten year
yields there currently trading at close to 2.259%. If yields in Germany
continue to rise, this will likely mark an acceleration of deterioration in the
Euro Zone.
Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by EUR/CHF should the latter
rate get closer to the 1.2130 region, which marks the lower end of the recent
trading range.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
German yield curve comparison, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Sharp Setbacks.
USD/CAD has triggered a sharp setback, following a short-term DeMark™
exhaustion sell signal.
A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
Only a sustained close beneath 1.0230 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks
into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9849 and 0.9726 (31st Aug low).
EUR/CAD has broken back beneath its 200-day MA, still within a large
multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June
swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.
CHF/CAD is now retesting its 200-day MA at 1.1369, while maintaining a
multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide lower (which
was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced
more than half of its 2011 gains.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENSLARGER
RECOVERY
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD Dail
200-DMA(0.9849)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50% (1.3570)
61.8% (1.3379)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(1.3871)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
50%
(1.1488)61.8%
(1.0893)
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Unwinding from oversold conditions.
AUD/USD is still unwinding from oversold conditions, following its
accelerated decline through the 1.0000 psychological level.
The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside
pressure on the rate’s multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand
dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-
day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon.
The Aussie dollar has triggered a mild recovery against the Japanese yen
and is now trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution
pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would
signal further unwinding of risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Sell Trade Setup.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD (Weekly)
38.2% (0.9144)
50% (0.8546)
61.8% (0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
200-DMA1.0405
REVERSINGINTO
200-DMA
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(82.61)
13
38.2% (76.70)
61.8% (68.47)
50% (72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWNADDS TO
RISK AVERSION
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Higher low anticipated for a fresh leg higher.
GBP/JPY may be entering a corrective phase higher following the break out
of hourly bear channel resistance. With this in mind, a higher low is
anticipated ahead of 119.38, should a short-term pullback take place. This
is also supported by the minor recovery seen in equities globally and in
particular in the S&P500.
Although a break over 121.77 could not be achieved, a further leg higher is
anticipated to complete the corrective phase from 119.38.
A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84.
Bigger picture a substantial recovery higher is favoured, initially towards
163.09.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 120.25, Objs: 121.20/123.00/125.72, Stop: 119.30
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Enters into a near-term corrective phase.
EUR/JPY appears to have completed an initial corrective phase higher, with
scope now for a further swing to the upside. We view the fall that has taken
place since 111.60 as being corrective in nature, suggesting potential for a
further leg higher. The break out of the hourly falling channel that has taken
place during recent sessions is now suggestive of a larger corrective phase
higher.
However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the
movement in EUR/USD. As the yields in Spanish and Italian government
bonds continue to rise, this puts more downside pressure on the EUR. A
break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the rising phase seen since 2010.
This would likely be associated with a fall back down to 100.76 and
potentially lower.
A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-
term outlook more bullish.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Bias remains bearish.
EUR/GBP continues to frustrate, failing to garner any momentum following
the recent break of the key 0.8530/31 lows. Given the precarious situation
in the Euro-Zone, our mild bearish bias remains, favouring an eventual
return to weakness if core/periphery sovereign debt continues to be sold off.
It is anticipated that if the deterioration in the Euro-Zone continues then
Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven. Thus focus remains on the Italian
and Spanish government bond markets too.
An eventual fall back under 0.8486 is anticipated. With this in mind, the
formulation of a short strategy is still favoured, although a deeper pullback of
the 0.8831-0.8486 fall is required ahead of entry.
Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200
day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in
EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of
confidence in the EUR.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Look to sell higher.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Re-test of the base of the recent trading range now favoured.
EUR/CHF continues to trade in a tight trading range just under the 1.2500
level. Focus still remains on the yields on periphery and core Euro-Zone
sovereign debt. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe
haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.
Our strategy remains to trade opportunistically from a momentum
perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the
1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would
warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability
of a return to this level.
Near-term, a break back under 1.2251 will warn of a failure to re-test the
1.2500 region, suggesting an earlier return to 1.2123/31. In any case, a re-
test of the base of the recent trading range is anticipated over coming
sessions.
It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of
funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet
higher yields in Italian/Spanish/French government bonds.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Remains negative beneath 1800.
Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at 1800. The
bearish move is starting to be anchored once again by Gold’s last dramatic
20% capitulation in September.
There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly
close beneath $1600/03 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not
been breached in 3 years!
A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000.
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions. This trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLD’S OVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS
BREAKOUT
$1704
$160
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
$153
DOUBLETOP
$1760
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Key support at $30.0000.
Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and favours a test the previous swing
low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside
risks, following the major sell-off in September.
Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed
buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold /Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2% (32.3135)
50% (26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike DEMARK™ SELL
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(37.0045)
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 70% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK
makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions
expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes
financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be
made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no
guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the
content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
LEGALTERMS
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 29 November, 2011
www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]