2011 12 15 migbank daily technical analysis report
TRANSCRIPT
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel SwitzerlandTel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 1 1.3280 1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1.3280
GBP/USD Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY Await new buy trade setup above 80.00.
USD/CHF Buy strategy removed. Possibly sell higher.
USD/CAD Awaiting new buy trade setup.
AUD/USD SHORT 3 1.0050 0.9950/0.9660/0.9380 (Entered 13/12/2011) 1.0210
GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY Buy limit 3 101.05 102.05/105.00/107.68 100.05
EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8510 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142 0.8615
EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.2480 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973 1.2580
GOLD SHORT 2 1705 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1705
SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT15 December, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entrypoint for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report ispublished, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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EUR/USD breaks 1.3000 (Psychological level). Second objective met, while still maintaining a risk-free trade.
EUR/USD bears have continued to push lower and have now broken
beneath that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.
Our cycle analysis has successfully signalled increased volatility within the
first two weeks of December across risk proxies , including the equity and
commodity markets.
The recent close beneath 1.3146 re-establishes the larger downtrend from
April. Watch for a sustained close beneath 1.3000 (psychological level) to
target 1.2870 (2011 major low).
Meanwhile, resistance can be found at 1.3550 (02 Dec high), then 1.3610
and 1.3730. Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short-lived. Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to new 11-month
highs, (a move worth over 10% f rom the summer 2010 lows).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows is strengthening once again and will
continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6 -12 months.
US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 1: 1.3280, Objs: 1.2870, Stop: 1.3280
EUR/ USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA (1.4060)
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED BREAKOUTS
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE
(1.4000)
1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)
9 KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.88)
DEMARK BUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
11 MONTHHIGH
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf -
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Break over trend-line off 1.5770 sought before attempting longs.
GBP/USD has managed to break out of its prior sequence of lower lows and
higher highs, forming an hourly falling channel. This may mark the final
phase of short-term weakness from the 1.5780 lower high. However, abreak over the hourly channel resistance is sought before attempting longs.
Demand for sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in selected core
Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that Italian 10 year
yields are trading close to 7.00%. Daily structure is also suggestive of a
return to test 7.00% and higher. A continuation of higher yields may see
Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This reasoning would likely
help to keep cable within its year long range.
Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272 andthen potentially trend-line support at 1.5110.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level) .
USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level) . There is an ever
growing probability of unfolding a third price retracement back to pre-
intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war recordlow beneath 75.35 (PINL).
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
to call the market bottom.
This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
points to trigger into December this year, offering a sustained move above
our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal
Webinar: USD/JPYs Long -Term Structural ChangeMedia Reports: CNBC / Squawk Box & Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting renewed buy trade setup above 80.00.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
82.00
83.30
USD/JPY
QUAKESHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PI R I)
POSTG7
MOVE (I)HIGH
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL A HEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
PIR III
MONTHLYDEMARK
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNANTICIPATES
BREAKOUT(85-79)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf -
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Encounters resistance close to our first target at 0.9555.
Long strategy to buy at 0.9410 removed. Look to sell higher.
USD/CHF has met resistance close to our initial target in our long strategy
to buy at 0.9410. We are thus removing this strategy as this may completethe rise from 0.9176. We view the push under 0.9430 as potentially
breaking down the short-term bullish structure. However, while above
0.9342, there remains scope for a further rise back towards 0.9548 initially.
Given that the region of the initial target has been tested and with yields
continuing to rise in some core Euro-Zone sovereign markets, the trade
location is deemed as poor. It is anticipated that a return to 7.000% in
Italian 10 year yields is imminent. This may once again pressure USD/CHF
to the downside. There is thus potentially a greater opportunity to sell athigher levels.
Referencing Spanish and Italian government bonds back to their respective
levels prior to the six party central bank agreement, we note that most of the
positive after effects have worn off, with yields trading at 5.698% and
6.824% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the agreement. (These yields
were trading at 5.699% and 6.685% respectively at the same time
yesterday.)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy strategy removed. Possibly looking to sell higher.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bulls extend rebound above 1.0200.
USD/CAD is maintaining its sharp bullish rebound above 1.0200. We are
watching for further sustained price activity to open a buy trade setup.
A directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still needed to unlock the
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rates ending triangle pattern, whi ch was part of a major Elliott wave cycle.
Only a sustained close beneath 1.0080 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks
into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9870 and 0.9726 (31 st Aug low).
EUR/CAD is unwinding mildly ahead of the base of an important multi-
month distribution pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19 th Sept low/61.8%
Fib), signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and would providesubstantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.
CHF/CAD , which serves as a proxy for risk appetite, remains weak
beneath its 200-day MA (which had provided support for most of the uptrend
since mid-2010). Key support now holds at 1.0893 (61.8% Fib retrace). A
break here would extend the sharp decline into 1.0332 (01 st March low) and
help confirm further unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting new buy trade setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD & CHF/CAD chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENSLARGER
RECOVERY
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA0.9876
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50% (1.3570)
61.8% (1.3379)
200-DMA(1.3876)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
50% (1.1488)
61.8% (1.0893)
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Sharp setbacks have broken through parity.
First objective met, while maintaining a risk-free trade.
AUD/USD has resumed its sharp setbacks beneath its 200-day MA which is
currently holding at 1.0412. This key level is likely to encourage further
downside scope over the multi-day-week horizon. The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside
pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand
dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-
day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day/week horizon.
The Aussie dollar pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese yen,
while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern. Watch
for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further
unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0050.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD & AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD (Weekly)
38.2% (0.9144)
50% (0.8546)
61.8% (0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL
SIGNALS
200-DMA1.0405
REVERSINGINTO
200-DMA
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(82.37)
13
38.2% (76.70)
61.8% (68.47)
50% (72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWNADDS TORISK AVERSION
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Channels lower in a possible corrective structure.
GBP/JPY has been largely contained within a falling hourly channel for the
majority of December. This structure is seen as being part of a corrective
phase with an eventual return to strength anticipated, potentially close to the
120.00 region.
However, the recovery seen from the 116.84 low appears corrective in
nature, suggesting scope for a return to 119.38 and then potentially 116.84.
A minor break has taken place under the support of the hourly channel,
reaching 120.30. This may now mark a short-term higher low for a fresh
swing to the upside targeting both 122.64 and 122.23, before a potential
lower high in the medium-term timeframe may develop. This would then
return focus back to the structure mentioned in the second bullet point.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell strategy removed. Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Support anticipated close to 100.76.
EUR/JPY saw an extension lower in recent trade following the break under
1.3146 in EUR/USD, particularly in light of the recent static nature of
USD/JPY.
We now anticipate a degree of support close to the 100.76 level, from where
a recovery may take place
As mentioned in prior reports, the medium-term recovery that we have
already witnessed from 100.76 to 111.60 is viewed as the initial leg higher in
a larger recovery structure.
Even if a lower low were to be printed in the medium-term timeframe, an
initial recovery from the 100.76 region is anticipated. With this in mind we
look to attempt longs just ahead of the key 100.76 level.
Sustained under this level will warn of a much larger continuation to the
downside.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 101.05, Objs: 102.05/105.00/107.68, Stop: 100.05EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Retrace back towards old trend-line support sought.
EUR/GBP continues to witness short-term weakness. Although a move to
test daily falling channel support near 0.8330 may develop, we prefer to wait
for higher levels to sell. We await a re-test of the old trend-line support as
resistance ahead of possible short positioning.
Also noted is that 1.3146 has now been broken in EUR/USD, weakening the
longer-term outlook there. This may assist a short EUR/GBP bias going
forward.
An initial target for the current downswing in the daily timeframe is on the
support of the previously mentioned falling channel, currently at 0.8330.
As mentioned in prior reports, the recent six party central bank coordination
is in fact a warning sign and a clear weakness, suggesting scope for a creditcontractionary phase. We continue to expect a continuation of rising yields
in the Euro-Zone and it is within this environment that we see the potential
for Sterling to be perceived as a safe haven.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8510, Objs: 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142, Stop: 0.8615EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Messy sideways trade continues.
EUR/CHF is currently witnessing a flurry of price activity and is approaching
our filter level at 1.2226 (see below). It thus appears that the possibility of a
break over the recent high at 1.2474 is receding. However, we will maintain
our sell limit strategy at 1.2480 for now, as this represents a decent trade
location during thin Christmas markets. However, we look to see if a break
under 1.2226 can be achieved.
1.2226 will be used as a filter. Under 1.2226, we will swap our current sell
limit strategy to a sell stop strategy at 1.2130, with objectives at
1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 and a stop at 1.2230.
We reference the Italian 10 year sovereign yield on a daily basis in our
USD/CHF commentary. A return to 7.000% and higher is building a recipe
for disaster and, should it take place, may well instigate a period in which
the Swiss Franc is sought as a safe haven irrespective of little to no yield
pick-up. A parallel can be made with the negative yield that was available
on short dated US paper during the last crisis. Sometimes return of capital
is more important then return on capital.
The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will
defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level,
which if triggered, could herald a return towards the 1.0075 level.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell limit 3 at 1.2480, Objs: 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973, Stop: 1.2580.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Gold breaks its 200-day average for first time in 3 years!
First objective met, while still maintaining a risk-free trade.
Golds has broken through its 200-day average for the first time in 3 years,
after extending its slide from a multi-month triangle pattern breakout.
Downside pressure is also accelerating from inter-market weakness across
related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets.
Moreover, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we
confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).
A number of bargain hunting trend -followers will be watching this
benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channel floor).
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1705, Obj: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1750
GOLD
Gold weekly and daily charts, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMABROKEN
FIRST TIMEIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OFGOLDS OVERBOUGHT
CONDITIONS
$1800
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530
UPSIDE: 1760 / 1800
GOLD KEY LEVELS
$1532
DOUBLETOP
$1760
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf -
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Key support broken at $30.0000.
First objective met, while still maintaining a risk-free trade.
Silver has broken through its key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close
below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the
major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces
volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to
recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long -
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 34.1300, Obj: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
SILVER
Spot Silver daily & weekly charts, with Gold/Silver ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2% (32.3135)
50% (26.9150)
61.8%(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK SELL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 70% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.8254)
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 15 December, 2011
www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 NeuchtelTel. +41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
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