4th naonal climate assessment (nca4): nca overview, … ak chapter.pdf · 4th naonal climate...
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Dr.FredLipschultzSeniorScien5st,Na5onalClimateAssessment
CarlMarkonNon-FederalChapterLead,AlaskaChapter
4thNa5onalClimateAssessment(NCA4):
NCAOverview,AlaskaChapter,andPublicFeedback/Inputforthe2018
Report
February14,2017
TheNa5onalClimateAssessment:ACongressionally-MandatedEndeavorGlobalChangeResearchActof1990(Sec5on106):…notlessfrequentlythanevery4years,theCouncil…shallprepare…anassessmentwhich–• integrates,evaluates,andinterpretsthefindingsoftheProgram(USGCRP)anddiscussesthescien5ficuncertain5esassociatedwithsuchfindings;
• analyzestheeffectsofglobalchangeonthenaturalenvironment,agriculture,energyproduc5onanduse,landandwaterresources,transporta5on,humanhealthandwelfare,humansocialsystems,andbiologicaldiversity;and
• analyzescurrenttrendsinglobalchange,bothhuman-inducedandnatural,andprojectsmajortrendsforthesubsequent25to100years.
BuildingontheSuccessofNCA3FiveaspectsofNCA3(2014)werecrucialtoitssuccess:• Assessmentbasedonbroadscien5ficandtechnicalinputs• Stakeholderengagement• Clearcommunica5onprinciples• Transparencyofprocessandinforma5on• Anextensivereviewprocess
SustainedAssessment:VisionandMo5va5on
VisionThequadrennialNCAisa“livingCmestamp”onaconstantlyevolvingandimprovingprocess
• Advancingscience• Developingtargetedscien5ficreportsandotherproducts• Crea5ngaframeworkforenduringdialoguewithvarioususergroupssoassessmentproductsareinformedby,andthereforetailoredto,morespecificneedsanddecisionpoints
MoCvaCon• Avoidingramp-upandhighac5va5onenergy• Maintainingmomentum• Mainstreamingclimateconsidera5onsintodecision-making
SustainedAssessmentProducts:Tradi5onal
• ClimateChange,GlobalFoodSecurity,andtheU.S.FoodSystem[2015]
• TheImpactsofClimateChangeonHumanHealthintheUnitedStates[2016]
• SOCCR-2:The2ndStateoftheCarbonCycleReport[2017]
• ClimateScienceSpecialReport[expectedFall2017]
SustainedAssessmentProducts:Novel
• ClimateResilienceToolkittoolkit.climate.gov
• LocalizedSeaLevelRise/LandUse/Popula5onscenarios
• LOCAdataset+GCMweigh5ng
• Indicatorswww.globalchange.gov/explore/indicators
Ø TheaimistomaketheNCAa“livingdocument”
What’sNewwithNCA4?Process• Plannedreleaseinlate2018• LedbyaFederalSteeringCommiiee
• EachchapterhasaFederalCoordina5ngLeadAuthor(CLA)andeitheraFedornon-FedChapterLead
Substance• SustainedAssessmentframeworkandprocess
o ClimateScienceSpecialReportunderwaytoprovidescien5ficfounda5on
• Regionalchapterswillbegivenmorein-depthtreatmentinNCA4• Sectoralchapterswilldrawupontheregionalchaptersandprovidebriefna5onaloverviews
• Avarietyofclimatetools&informa5on(e.g.,NOAANCEIStateClimateSummaries,Indicators,Scenarios,ClimateResilienceToolkit,LOCAdataset)
NCA4Chapters• I:Overview• II:OurChangingClimate
• III:NaConalOverviews• Water• Energy• LandCoverandLandUseChange• Forests• Ecosystems,EcosystemServices,and
Biodiversity• CoastalEffects• OceansandMarineResources• AgricultureandRuralCommuni5es• BuiltEnvironment,UrbanSystems,andCi5es• Transporta5on• AirQualityNEW!• HumanHealth• TribalandIndigenousCommuni5es• ClimateEffectsonU.S.Interna5onalInterests
NEW!
• SectoralInterdependencies&CompoundingStressors:TheScienceofComplexSystemsNEW!
• IV:RegionalChapters• Northeast• Southeast• USCaribbeanNEW!• Midwest• NorthernGreatPlains• SouthernGreatPlains• Northwest• Southwest• Alaska• Hawai`iandPacificIslands
• V:Response• Near-termAdapta5onNeedsandIncreased
Resiliency• Mi5ga5on:AvoidingandReducingLong-
termRisks
} EXPANDED!
Na5onal-LevelOverviews• Short(~6pg),na5onal-leveloverviewsofkeysectorsandcross-cunngtopics• Encouragedtolinktoagencyresourcesandexis5ngwork
• Ledbyoneormoreagencies
• ChapterStructure:• Background/stateofthesector• Roll-upofinforma5onfromtheregionalscale
• 2-3na5onal-scalekeymessages• Traceableaccountsandreferences(notpartofpagelimit)
• Response(adapta5onandmi5ga5on)willbelonger(~10pg)
RegionalChapters• The“maincourse”ofNCA4(~20pageseach)
• Region-specificconcerns• Highlightop5ons,challenges,opportuni5es,andsuccessstoriesforminimizingrisk
• ChapterStructure:• Background• 4-6KeyMessages:
• LinkagebetweenClimateChangeandRegionalRisks
• FutureClimateChangerelevanttoRegionalRisks
• Challenges,Opportuni5es,SuccessStories
• EmergingIssues
• Traceableaccountsandreferences(notpartofpagelimit)
AlaskaRegionAuthorTeamFederalCoordinaCngLeadAuthorSteveGray(USGS)[email protected]@gmail.comUSGCRPRegionalContactsFredLipschultzflipschultz@[email protected]
ChapterAuthors• MollyMcCammon• HenryHun5ngton• SarahTrainor
RequestedContribuCngAuthors• BruceRichmond • LymanThorsteinson• ErinWhitney • NathanKeile• HarryPenn • PatriciaK.Schwalenberg • RickThoman• HeatherWard • RobertRabin• JohnPearce • VanessaSkean• LauraEerkes-Medrano • WillowHetrick
Alaska:NCA3KeyMessages1.Arc5csummerseaiceisrecedingfasterthanpreviouslyprojectedandisexpectedtovirtuallydisappearbeforemid-century.
2.MostglaciersinAlaskaandBri5shColumbiaareshrinkingsubstan5ally.
3.PermafrosttemperaturesinAlaskaarerising,athawingtrendthatisexpectedtocon5nue.
4.CurrentandprojectedincreasesinAlaska’soceantemperaturesandchangesinoceanchemistryareexpectedtoalterthedistribu5onandproduc5vityofAlaska’smarinefisheries.
5.Thecumula5veeffectsofclimatechangeinAlaskastronglyaffectNaCvecommuniCes,whicharehighlyvulnerabletotheserapidchangesbuthaveadeepculturalhistoryofadap5ngtochange.
hYp://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/alaska
Alaska:NCA4[DRAFTOUTLINEJan2017]• IntroducCon/Background(~2-3pages)
• Whathashappenedsincethelastreport.• NOAAAlaskaReportcard• GeneralClimateInforma5on
• KeyMessages(~3-4pageseach):• EffectofClimateRelatedChangesonAlaska’sIndigenousPeoples• EffectofClimateChangeonHumanHealth• ChangesinLandscape,CoastalCondi5ons,andtheOceanEnvironment
• EconomicsofClimateChange• Adapta5onandResponsestoClimateChange
Technicalinputs(par5allist)
• ClimateScienceSpecialReport• NOAANCEIStateSummaries• Contribu5ngAuthors• ImpactsofClimateChangeonHumanHealth• ClimateChangeandIndigenousPeoplesSynthesisreport• Adapta5onAc5onsforaChangingArc5c(AACA):Beaufort,Chukchi,BeringPilotRegionalReport• hips://toolkit.climate.gov/regions/alaska-and-arc5c
Alaska/Arc5c:ClimateScienceSpecialReport(DRAFT2017)
KEYMESSAGES1. ForboththeStateofAlaskaandfortheArc5casawhole,near-surface
airtemperatureisincreasingataratemorethantwiceasfastastheglobal-averagetemperature.(Veryhighconfidence)
2. RisingAlaskanpermafrosttemperaturesarecausingpermafrosttothawandbecomemorediscon5nuous;thisreleasesaddi5onalCO2andCH4resul5nginaddi5onalwarming(highconfidence).Theoverallmagnitudeofthepermafrost-carbonfeedbackisuncertain.
3. Arc5cseaiceandGreenlandIceSheetmasslossareaccelera5ngandAlaskanmountainglacierscon5nuetomelt(veryhighconfidence).AlaskancoastalseaicelossratesexceedtheArc5caverage(veryhighconfidence).ObservedseaandlandicelossacrosstheArc5cisoccurringfasterthanclimatemodelspredict(veryhighconfidence).Mel5ngtrendsareexpectedtocon5nueresul5nginlatesummersbecomingnearlyice-freefortheArc5coceanbymid-century(veryhighconfidence).
4. Humanac5vi5eshavecontributedtorisingsurfacetemperature,seaicelosssince1979,andglaciermasslossobservedacrosstheArc5c.(Highconfidence)
5. Atmosphericcircula5onpaiernsconnecttheclimatesoftheArc5candtheUnitedStates.Themid-la5tudecircula5oninfluencesArc5cclimatechange(mediumtohighconfidence).Inturn,currentevidencesuggeststhatArc5cwarmingisinfluencingmid-la5tudecircula5onoverthecon5nentalUnitedStatesandaffec5ngweatherpaierns,butthemechanismsarenotwellunderstood(lowtomediumconfidence).
Septemberseaiceextentandage(thickness)shownfor1984(top)and2016(boYom),illustraCngthatsignificantreducConshaveoccurredinseaiceextentandage.Thebargraphinthelowerrightofeachpanelillustratestheamountoficeineachagecategory.
Alaska:NOAANCEIStateSummary(2017)
• Averageannualtemperaturehasincreasedsince1925,butwithlargemul5-decadalvaria5ons;mostoftheincreasehasoccurredinthewinterandspringseasons.Underahigheremissionspathway,historicallyunprecedentedwarmingisprojectedbytheendofthe21stcentury.
• Averageannualprecipita5onisprojectedtoincreaseby10%ormoreacrossallofAlaskabythemiddleofthe21stcenturyunderahigheremissionspathway.
• LatesummerArc5cseaiceextentandthicknesshasdecreasedsubstan5allyinthelastseveraldecades.ClimatemodelsprojectthatArc5cwaterswillbevirtuallyice-freebylatesummerbefore2050.
TimeseriesofArcCcseaiceextentanomaliesinMarch(themonthofmaximumiceextent)andSeptember(themonthofminimumiceextent).Theanomalyvalueforeachyearisthedifference(%)iniceextentrelaCvetotheaveragevaluesfortheperiod1981–2010.Theredandbluedashedlinesindicateicelossesof-2.6%and-13.4%perdecadeinMarchandSeptember,respecCvely.Bothtrendsaresignificantatthe99%confidencelevel.Source:NOAAArcCcReportCard.
NOAANaConalCenterforEnvironmentalInformaConStateSummary(2017),hips://statesummaries.ncics.org/ak
ClimateChangeandIndigenousPeoples:ASynthesisofCurrentImpactsandExperiences(2016)Definesanddescribesthekeyframeworksinformingindigenousunderstandingsofclimatechangeimpactsandpathwaysforadapta5onandmi5ga5on:
• Tribalsovereigntyandselfdetermina5on• Indigenouscultureandculturaliden5ty• Indigenouscommunityhealthindicators
CitaCon:Norton-Smith,Kathryn;Lynn,Kathy;Chief,Karleia;Cozzeio,Karen;Donatuto,Jamie;HizaRedsteer,Margaret;Kruger,LindaE.;Maldonado,Julie;Viles,Carson;Whyte,KyleP.2016.Climatechangeandindigenouspeoples:asynthesisofcurrentimpactsandexperiences.Gen.Tech.Rep.PNW-GTR-944.Portland,OR:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,PacificNorthwestResearchSta5on.136p.hip://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/53156
Howtogetinvolved
• AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium• 23-27January(flyer)
• AlaskaForumfortheEnvironment,6-10February• 1.5hsession8February
• AlaskaCenterforClimateAssessmentandPolicyWebinar• 14February,10am
• NCAnet:ncanet.usgcrp.gov
@usgcrp
usgcrp
GlobalChange.gov
Connectwithus:ContactUs
USGCRPALASKAREGIONALCONTACTS
www.globalchange.gov/nca4
• Whatarethemostpressingclimate-relatedchallengesorissuesforyourregionthatshouldbeemphasizedinNCA4?• Whatdowevalue/whatisatrisk?• Whatoutcomesdowewishtoavoidtothesevaluedthings?
• Whataresomecross-cunngissuestoconsiderforNCA4?• Arethereareasofconcern(oropportuni5es)thatareemerging,butarepoorlyunderstood?
• Whattypesofinforma5onwouldbeofmostvaluetoyouwhenaddressingthesechallengesorissues?
• What(typesof)casestudiesorexampleswouldyouliketoseeinNCA4?• PlaceswhereNCA3wasusedtoinformdecisions• Examplesofsuccessfuladapta5onormi5ga5onac5ons