8º foro latibex - strategic plan and 3rd quarter results
TRANSCRIPT
0
PETROBRAS
8º Foro LatibexNovember, 15, 16 and 17
Madrid
Strategic Plan and 3rd Quarter Results - 2006
November, 2006
Raul Adalberto de CamposExecutive Manager Investor Relations
Carlos Henrique Dumortout CastroInvestor Relations Manager
1
PETROBRAS
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
Cautionary Statement for US investors
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
Disclosure
2
PETROBRAS
Drivers Business StrategiesE&P• Focus on light oil and natural gas
production and reserve growthDownstream• Expand conversion capacity and improve
quality of refined products• Increase bio-refining capacity, biomass,
petrochemical and fertilizers businesses• Promote Brazilian biodiesel production and
export ethanolDistribution• Increase market-share in Brazil for oil
products and biofuelsGas & Energy• Develop and establish a profitable and
reliable natural gas market including LNGInternational• Expand E&P in Gulf of Mexico and Africa• Undertake investments in refining
conversion capacity and quality
Develop market and monetize natural gas reserves in Brazil
Reduce dependence on light oil and oil product imports
Improve oil product quality in Brazil and abroad
Reduce carbon intensity of operations and products
Drivers & Strategies
Exploit competitive advantage from deep water exploration technology abroad
Assure future demand and add value to heavy oil exports
3
PETROBRAS
At current levelsCosts
2006 – 62.002007 – 55.002008 – 40.00
2009-2011 – 35.00
Brent for funding (US$/bbl)
Linked to international market
pricesDomestic sales prices
23.00Robustness Brent (US$/bbl)
4.2GDP – World (% p.a.) –PPP*
3.7GDP – Latin America (% p.a.) – PPP
2.50FX rate (R$/US$)4.0GDP – Brazil (% p.a.)
2007-2011Assumptions
* PPP – purchase power parity
Fundamentals - Macroeconomic assumptions
• Market developments indicate an appreciation of the FX rate (R$/US$).
• Petrobras robustness Brent price below the low end of market’s forecast band.
• Costs are projected at current levels, with no adjustment for future price reductions.
• Petrobras products prices follow international prices in the medium term.
• Natural gas prices to accompany international differentials to oil products.
4
PETROBRAS
224312 315 368237 237 282
773 777935
97128 128
211
201 201
116 108
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2004 2005 2011
LPG Gasoline A Naphta Diesel* + Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Coke + Others
Thou
sand
bpd 1,766
2,1173.1% p.a.
*Includes Biodiesel (2%)
Brazil’s Oil products demand
• Increasing demand for middle distillates.
1,767
0.52%Diesel + Jet Fuel
0.00%LPG0.96%Gasoline A0.00%Naphtha
-6.90%Fuel Oil0.00%Cocke and Others
Variation 2004 x 2005
Fundamentals - Domestic oil products market
5
PETROBRAS
Note: Includes International
31.0
12.41.0
1.0
49.3
23.07.5
3.32.31.8
E&P Downstream G&EPetrochemical Distribution Corporate
9%4%
3% 26%
56%
3%
Business Plan 2007-2011US$ 87.1 billion
86%
14%
Brazil International
US$ 12.1 bi
US$ 75.0 bi
Investment Plan
49,3
23,0
7,53,32,21,8
6
PETROBRAS
New Projects17,412
Cost Increase7,792
FX Rate Appreciation
4,189
Business Model Change
2,957
Other517
Scope Change1,824
BP 2006-1052,430
• New projects represent 50% and cost increase 23% of the additional Capex in relation to the previous Plan.
• New exploration projects in Brazil
• Production development Jabuti, ESS-164
• HBIO, RPBC modernization• Ethanol exports• New vessels • Northeast and southeast LNG• New projects in E&P and
refining abroad
• Exploration and development projects
• Offshore production• Diesel and gasoline quality and
conversion portfolio• Fleet renovation and expansion
program
US$ Million
Investment Plan
7
PETROBRAS
Sources
(*)86.7
12.6
2004-2010Financing
Cash Flow
(US$ 99.3 billion)
87.1
12.2
2004-2010Debt Amortization
Capex
(US$ 99.3 billion)
• Accrued Economic Profit (2006-2015): US$ 83.4 billion (US$ 53.9 until 2011).
Uses
Financial Targets - Sources & Uses
8
PETROBRAS
Sensitivity to Brent in 2007-2011(annual average)Every US$ 5.00 Brent price change will result in:
• 3 pp change in ROCE;
• US$ 3.5 billion change in the operational cash generation;
• 10 pp change in leverage.
1.5
8.6x
28
4.4
2.9
15
2006-2010Average
1.5
13.7x
25
3.5
3.1
16
2007-2011 Average
Oper. Cash Flow before interest and taxes / interestFree Operating Cash Flow (US$ billion)
Cash Balance (end of the year) (US$ billion)Net Debt/ Net Debt + Shareholders’ Equity (Leverage) (%)
Long Term Funding (US$ billion per year)
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (%)
Indicators
Financial Targets - Main Financial Indicators
9
PETROBRAS
2 , 3 7 42 , 8 1 2
5 5 1
7 2 4
7 4 2
1 8 5
2 7 8
3 8 3
2 0 1 5
F o r e c a s t
1 , 6 8 4 1 , 8 8 01 , 5 4 0 1 , 4 9 3
2 5 0 2 6 5 2 7 4
2 8 9
1 3 3
1 6 1 1 6 81 6 3
8 5
1 0 1
9 49 6
2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 T a r g e t 2 0 0 6
O i l a n d N G L - B r a z i l N a t u r a l G a s - B r a z i l
O i l a n d N G L - I n t e r n a c i o n a l N a t u r a l G a s - I n t e r n a c i o n a l
2,036 2,020 2,217 2,403
3,493
4,556Thousand boed
7.8% p.a.
7.5% p.a.
T a r g e t 2 0 1 1
E&P - Production targets – Oil & NGL and Natural Gas
10
PETROBRAS
• P-50 is currently producing 150,000 bpd and should reach its production peak by the end of the year.• FPSO Capixaba is producing 35.000 bpd and should reach its full capacity in 2007.• P-34 is being tested on the ocean and its start-up is scheduled to November.• The start-up of FPSO Rio de Janeiro was anticipated form 2007 to December 2006.
In 2006, two platforms, P-50 and FPSO Capixaba, have started operating. Until the end of the year, other two platforms will start-up operation, adding a production
capacity of 440 thousand bpd to the county.
Albacora LesteCapacity 180,000 bpd
April 2006
P-50
Golfinho Mod. 1Capacity 100,000 bpd
May 2006
FPSO Capixaba
Jubarte Phase 1 Capacity 60,000 bpd
November 2006
P-34
Espadarte Mod. IICap.: 100,000 bpd
December 2006
FPSO Cidade do Rio de Janeiro
E&P - Main production projects in 2006
11
PETROBRAS
1.9792.061
2.195
2.368
2.374
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2.200
2.400
2.600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Parquedas Conchas100,000 bpd
2011
Parquedas Conchas100,000 bpd
2011
Marlim LesteP-53*
180,000 bpd2009
Marlim LesteP-53*
180,000 bpd2009
Frade100.000 bpd
2009
Frade100.000 bpd
2009
RoncadorP-52
180,000 bpdDec/2007
RoncadorP-52
180,000 bpdDec/2007
RoncadorP-54
180,000 bpdOct/2007
RoncadorP-54
180,000 bpdOct/2007
Marlim SulMódulo 2
P-51180,000 bpd
2008
Marlim SulMódulo 2
P-51180,000 bpd
2008
Piranema20,000 bpdApril/2007
Piranema20,000 bpdApril/2007
JubarteFase 2P-57
180,000 bpd2010
JubarteFase 2P-57
180,000 bpd2010
ESS-130Golfinho Mód. III
(FPSO)100,000 bpd
2008
ESS-130Golfinho Mód. III
(FPSO)100,000 bpd
2008
Cidade de VitóriaGolfinho Mod. 2
100,000 bpdMay/2007
Cidade de VitóriaGolfinho Mod. 2
100,000 bpdMay/2007
RoncadorP-55
180,000 bpd2011
RoncadorP-55
180,000 bpd2011Th
ousa
ndbp
d
E&P - Main production projects in 2007 - 2011Aditional
Capacity (bpd) 280,000180,000280,000280,000480,00020112010200920082007
12
PETROBRAS
P-52P-51Capacity: 180,000 bpd
Modality: Owned
Current Situation: under construction in Angra dos Reis (RJ)
Start-up: December 2007 (Roncador Field)
Capacity: 180,000 bpd
Modality: Owned
Current Situation: under construction in Angra dos Reis (RJ)
Start-up: February 2008 (MarlimSul Field)
Currently, three Petrobras platforms are being built in Brazil
P-51will be the first semi-submersible unit to be entirely built in Brazil.
P-54Capacity: 180,000 bpd
Modality: Owned
Current Situation: under construction in the Mauá-Jurong(RJ) shipyard
Start-up: September 2007 (Roncador Field)
E&P - Platforms under Construction in Brazil
13
PETROBRAS
• To sustain production growth, 15 large projects will be implemented between 2011 to 2015. The highlights are:
2,812
2,374
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
2011 2015
• Marlim Sul P-56• Roncador P-55• Papa-Terra Mód. 1 e 2• Marlim Sul Mód. 4• Roncador Mód. 4• Cachalote and Baleia Franca• Baleia Azul
Oil Production in Brazil (Thous. bbl)
E&P - 2011-2015 main Brazilian projects
14
PETROBRAS
(154) (326) (508) (697)(154)
(172)(181)
(189)(201)
(217)
(897)
(1.400)
(900)
(400)
100
600
1.100
1.600
2.100
2.600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Production Accumulated Decline Annual Decline
2,0612,195
2,368 2,374
1,6841,880
1,979
1,114Accumulated
Natural Decline
690
Net Increase
+
1,804
Gross Increase
Thou
s. b
pdE&P Investments - Brazilian production curve
15
PETROBRAS
54,3% 53,1% 51,5% 50,5%
43,8%40,5% 39,7%
34,3%30,0% 29,7%
25,0%20,3%
12,9%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Petr
obras
She
ll
T
otal
CNOOC
Stat
oil
BP
Exx
onMob
il
L
ukoil
Chev
ron
Cono
coPhillip
s
R
epsol-Y
PF
P
etroC
hina
S
inopec
Undeveloped Reserves / Total Reserves* (2005)
• Strong investments in production will optimize the development of Petrobras’ proven reserves, aiming light oil production and a minimum reserve/production ratio of 15 years.
• Petrobras had a 55% success ratio for our exploration wells during 2005, with 38 wells classified as discovery or producing wells.
* Source: Evaluate Energy
E&P Investments
17
16
PETROBRAS
Mur
phy
Oil:
27,
75
Shel
l Can
ada:
26,
86
Sunc
or: 2
1,65 Pe
tro-
Can
ada:
14,
17
Con
ocoP
hilli
ps: 1
2,5
Mar
atho
n O
il: 1
2,31
Che
vron
: 11,
32
Impe
rial
Oil:
10,
2 1
Petr
ochi
na: 1
0,2
Sino
pec:
10,
02
Stat
oil:
9,89
Exxo
n M
obil:
9,5
4
Tota
l: 9,
41
Petr
obra
s*: 8
,56
BP:
7,0
3CN
OO
C: 1
3,19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Global Oils E&P CAPEX to production 2005-2008E AverageSource: Merrill Lynch estimates based on available data for the companies.
* CAPEX and production over 2006-2011
• Per barrel CAPEX* for Petrobras (2006-2011) of US$ 8.56 vs. Global Oils average (2005-08) of US$ 13.74 (ex-PBR).
E&P CAPEX to production 2005-2008E Average (US$/bbl)
E&P Investments - Petrobras CAPEX vs. Peers CAPEX
17
PETROBRAS
200520042003
66
41
25
Total
90
43
47
Total
23
4
19
International
4642Offshore
8764Total
4122Onshore
TotalBrazil
Owned Rigs: 31
Leased: 56
• Petrobras’ leasing contracts are long term, averaging a 5 years length;
• In 2005, 18 offshore drilling rigs were owned by Petrobras;
• In August 2005, Petrobras renovated 24 drilling rigs contracts.
E&P - Petrobras’ Drilling Rigs
18
PETROBRAS
61%
13%
12%
14%
RefiningPipelines & Terminals TransportShip TransportPetrochemical
US$ 14.2
US$ 3.2
US$ 3.0
US$ 2.8
US$ 23.1 billion in the downstream segment… ...of which US$ 14.2 billion in refining
• Aggregating value to our heavy oil and producing diesel and gasoline according to international standards.
31%
19%
6% 26%
18%
Gasoline and Diesel Quality Expansion
HSE Conversion
Others
US$ 2.5US$ 0.9
US$ 4.4
US$ 2.7
US$ 3.7
Downstream – 2007-2011 Investments
19
PETROBRAS
Majors Average *
2,735
3,176
4,793
4,329
1,630
1,579
National Oil Companies Average **
Petrobras2,296
2,114
Product Sales (thous. bpd)
Refining (thous. bpd)Production (thous. boed)
* Majors: BP, Exxon, Total, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Conoco and Repsol-YPF** NOIC: PEMEX, PDVSA, Saudi Amraco, KPC, Pertamina and Sonatrach
*** 2004 figures, except for Petrobras (2005)Source: PIW Intelligence and Petrobras
2,217
3,400Year 2011
2011: New Refinery will add 200
thous. bpd capacity2010:
Pasadena Refinery revamp concluded – processing 70
thous. bpd of heavy oil
Vertical Integration Comparison
20
PETROBRAS
New Refinery in Pernambuco• Investment: US$ 2,5 billion;
• Throughput capacity: 200 thousand heavy oil barrels (50% Petrobras oil / 50% PDVSA oil);
• Focusing diesel and LPG production maximization, the new refinery will aim the growth of oil products demand in the Northeast.
• The Northeast Region, which responds for 19% of oil products demand and holds only one refinery in Bahia, will no longer be a fuel importer (either from refineries in Brazil or abroad);
• Costs reduction: oil products transportation are more expensive than for crude oil.
New Refinery in the USA• Petrobras has acquired 50% of the Passadena Refinery System Inc. (PRSI), located in Texas, USA;
• Total Investment: US$ 370 million;
• The refinery, which already has a capacity of 100,000 bbl/day, will be upgraded to handle 70,000 bbl/day of heavy oil and feedstock (including Marlim field’s production);
• The upgraded refinery will be ready in four years. After the revamp project all products will match USA highest standards.
Business Strategies - Downstream
21
PETROBRAS
Nitrogenated Fertilizers Unit III
PTA Pernambuco
Fafen BA
Acrylic Complex /SAP
Rio de Janeiro Petrochemical Complex
Main Projects Advantages: • Proximity to Petrobras’ installations in Rio de Janeiro; • Availability of labor for both the construction and operational phase; • Proximity to port installations.• Products: Diesel, LPG, Ethylene, Propylene, PX, Benzene and Coke.
•The Complex will add value to 150,000 barrels/day of heavy oil form the Campos Basin.
• Investments of US$ 3.3 billion in Petrochemicals;
• Reducing the Brazilian deficit and adding value to Downstream production.
São GonçaloLiquids
Outflow Unit
Petrochemical Complex –
Itaboraí
Downstream Investments - Petrochemical investments
22
PETROBRAS
In Thous. bpd(*) National imports and private refineries(**) Biodiesel portion not included
International Production383
Brazilian Production2,374
383 584+
1,710
Imports309
584
Throughput inBrazil 1,877
Oil products consumptionin Brazil (**) 2,099
Oil 167
Oil Products (*)142
International oil sales967
80
• In 2011 international sales will amount to 967 Thous. bpd.
Downstream Investments - Liquid products flow
23
PETROBRAS
Over 75% of Petrobras’ current natural gas production is associated gas
Investments to develop production of non-associated gas
Lack of infrastructure to develop Brazilian market
Risk of gas supply failure due to abnormalities
Total investment (Petrobras and partners) in Brazilian natural gas chain
adds up to US$ 22.1 billion
LNG to provide flexibility to mitigate such risk
Challenges Business Plan 2007-2011 Targets
Natural Gas Investments
24
PETROBRAS
Mill
ion
m3 /d
ay
48.4
7.124.8
38.6
13.5
34.0
up to 71.0
up to 30.0
up to 20.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Consumed in 2005 Maximum Demand2011(*)
Potential Supply 2011
Thermoplants Industry OtherNational Production Bolivian Imports LNG
* Considers maximal dispatch for every thermoelectric power plant
121.0
17.7% p.a.
121.0
45.4
Natural gas market
Fundamentals - Domestic natural gas market
25
PETROBRAS
7070.6
65.2
49.4
34.1
27.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
AlbacoraLeste(P-50)2006 Golfinho Mod 1
2006
Jubarte(P-34)2006
Manati2006
Piranema2006
UrucuNatural gas
sales2007
GolfinhoMod 22007
Roncador(P-54)2007
Peroá-CangoaPhase 2
2007Roncador
(P-52)2007
CavaloMarinho
2010
Marlim Leste(P-53)2009
Mexilhão2009
Marlim SulMod 2(P-51)2008
Frade2009
Roncador(P-55)2011
Jubarte Fase 2(P-57)2010
SPS252009
AlbacoraComplemental
2007
NG
associated
NG
non associated
Peroá-CangoaPhase 1
2006
EspadarteMod. 22007
ESS1642008
Canapu2008
ESS1302008
Tambaú/Uruguá2010
RJS6332010
Parque dasConchas
2011
Million m3/day
Natural Gas Investments - Delivery Curve
26
PETROBRAS
• Production will raise from the current 15.8 million to 40 million m3 per day in 2008 in the Southeast.
• Development of two new oil and gas fields in Espírito Santo;
• Increase of natural gas supply from the Marlim field (Campos Basin);
• Expansion of gas production in the Merluza field (Santos Basin).
• Demand Flexibilization
• Refineries, Distributors and flex-fuel thermoelectric plants ( LNG, diesel and alcohol)
New investments will reduce the country’s dependence on imported gas.
BS-500BS-500
BC-20BC-20Gas and light oilGGaas s andand lightlight oiloil
ESS-130
(Light oil)ESSESS--130 130
(L(Lightight oiloil))
(Light oil)(L(Lightight oiloil))
GasGGaass
(Heavy oil)((HeavyHeavy oiloil))
(Heavy oil)((HeavyHeavy oiloil))
Natural Gas Investments
27
PETROBRAS
Natural Gas supply extension in Southeast 2006 - 2008
ESSESS--164164
ESSESS--130130
MexilhãoMexilhão UruguáUruguá
TambaúTambaú
Golfinho + Golfinho + CanapuCanapu
PeroáPeroá (10 MM m3/d)(10 MM m3/d)
MerluzaMerluza
PqPq. . BaleiasBaleias + + BC10BC10
Vitória
NamoradoNamorado
PlataformasPlataformas dadaUNUN--BC e UNBC e UN--RIORIO
REDUCREDUC
CabiúnasCabiúnasCampinasCampinas
RPBC
GaroupaGaroupa
EnchovaEnchovaPampoPampo
Ubu
MerluzaMerluza -- IIII(BM(BM--SS--3/ BM3/ BM--SS--7, 7,
SPSSPS--25)25)LagostaLagosta
Belo HorizonteBelo Horizonte
CaraguatatubaCaraguatatubaRio de JaneiroRio de Janeiro
Total Southeast:40 MM m3/d(+ 24,2 MM m3/d)
(*) Schedules under evaluation
PLANGÁS Dec./2008
CacimbasCacimbas (20 MM m3/d)(20 MM m3/d)
Lagoa parda
+6,4 MM m3/d (*)+6,4 MM m3/d (*)
(*) Additional to the current supply
PóloPólo Golfinho Golfinho +16,3 MM m3/d (*)+16,3 MM m3/d (*)
+1,5 MM m3/d (*)+1,5 MM m3/d (*)
•Development of new fields in Espírito Santos field (1-ESS-164 and 1-ESS-130)
• Increase in Marlim supply (Campos Basin)• Merluza production expansion (Santos Basin)
28
PETROBRAS
Natural Gas supply extension in Brazil
Santos Basin:• Investments: US$ 18 billion over the next 10 years;• Increase of 12 million m3/day in the supply of gas as of 2009;• In 2010, total volume will reach 30 million m3/day.Peroá Field:• Gas production will guarantee a 1.3 million m3/day supply to the State of Espírito Santo• Supply may be duplicated with the start-up of the first 100km of Gasene.Manati Project:• Forecasted production of 6 million m3/day, attending the demand of the State of Bahia.
• SE production will raise from the current 15.8 million to 40 million m3 per day in 2008.• Development of two new oil and gas fields in Espírito Santo; • Increase of natural gas supply from the Marlim field (Campos Basin);• Expansion of gas production in the Merluza field (Santos Basin);• Demand rationalization;• Refineries, Distributors and flex-fuel thermoelectric plants ( LNG, diesel and
alcohol).
New investments will reduce the country’s dependence on imported gas.
Highlights
29
PETROBRAS
Facilitates the adjustment of the offer to the market’s characteristic:Flexible Offer (with guarantee) to the thermoelectric plants.
More efficient than Diesel in the thermo plants;
Mitigates the risk of failing to supply the gas due to abnormalities;
Diversifies the sources of imported gas;
Projects under evaluation:Purchase or freight of floating storage and regasification units (FSRU);Maritime terminal in Pecém (Ceará) - 6 MM m³/day (estimate Jul/2008 ± 3 months)Maritime terminal in the Guanabara Bay (Rio de Janeiro)– 12/14 MM m³/day (estimate
Jul/2008 ± 3 months)
FSRUFSRUFloating Storage and Floating Storage and RegasificationRegasification UnitUnit
Flexible LNG Project
30
PETROBRAS
Northeast Gas Pipeline NetworkUS$ 6.5 billion investments
between 2007-2011
Extension of Gasbol Southern Segment (LNG distribution)
Gasbel ExtensionSoutheast Gas Pipeline NetworkNG infra-structure maintenanceUrucu-Coari-Manaus Gas PipelineGasene – Northern SegmentLNG – Liquefied Natural Gas
Main Projects
Natural Gas Investments
TOTAL INVESTMENTS OF US$ 22,1 BIILION IN THE BRAZILIAN NATURAL GAS CHAIN FROM 2007 – 2011 (Petrobras and Partners)
Espírito Santo
Campos
Santos
31
PETROBRAS
1,73 51,6 9 61,76 11,8 0 41,6 6 81,70 8 1,8 12 1,79 51,6 551,6 3 71,6 8 41,6 4 91,6 4 71,73 11,6 6 51,58 9
807780
818079 79 81
88879191
8783
91 91
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 2004 200550556065707580859095
Domestic oil products production Oil products sales volume
Domestic crude as % of total Primary processed installed capacity - Brazil (%)
• High utilization factor (91%) in the second half of 2005 in the refineries resulted in maintenance of the oil products production high level, diminishing the needs for oil products imports.• In 2005, the contribution of the National oil Production in the feedstock were 84 thousand bpd higher than in 2004.
Business Strategies - DownstreamDomestic refining and sales
32
PETROBRAS
34%
17%13%
7%
8%
21%
BR Ipiranga Shell
Esso Texaco Outras
Market Share of Fuel Distribution Companies in Brazil (%)
• Lead the Brazilian market for oil products and bio-fuels;
• Expand domestic market-share and client portfolio;
• Internationalize and add value to Petrobras’ brand.
US$ 2.2 billion to be invested between 2007-2011
Distribution Investments
33
PETROBRAS
International - Overview
Houston
Colombia
Argentina
Angola
United Kingdom.
USA
BRAZIL
Bolivia Rio de Janeiro
Trinidad &Tobago Nigeria
Venezuela
EcuadorPeru
Mexico
Tanzania
Saudi Arabia
Iran
EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTIONTRADING
HEAD OFFICE
REFINING
UNDER EVALUATION
REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE
New York
Tokyo
Beijing
Singapore
Lybia
Mozambique
Uruguay
Equatorial Guinea
Turkey
34
PETROBRAS
Core Areas:
• Refining
• Add value to Brazilian heavy oil exports
• E&P: West Africa (Nigeria and Angola) & Gulf of Mexico:
• Apply deep water and deep well drilling technology.
• Latin America:
• Leadership as an integrated energy company
70,2%
24,8%
1,7%0,8%
1,7%
0,8%
E&P
Refining andMarketing Petrochemical
Gas & Energy
Distribution
Corporate
Total CAPEX: US$ 12.1 billion
168 163
38396
185
94
2004 2005 2011 Target
Oil and NGL Natural Gas
568
262 259
Thous. boed
Targets
International Investments
35
PETROBRAS
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
HoustonNew Orleans
Cascade
ChinookSt Malo
Producing FieldsDiscoveriesProspects
Coulomb NorthZion
Bryce Sedona
Das Bump
Hadrian
Deep Shelf Gas Prospects
Hadrian S
Monte BeloCottonwood
Live Oak
Aquarius
CentaurusAndromeda
Claudius
Flavian
Aurelian
Redbud
Cygnus
Crater
Aquila
Pegasus
Scorpio
Current PortfolioPosition:
• 80 shallow water blocks and 197 deepwater blocks
• 6 Producing Fields
• 3 discoveries (appraisal) and studies of the production development
• 1 field on development.
• 1 onshore prospect
• Proven reserves (SPE, 2005): 39,0 million boe
• Average production (2005): 5,0 thousand boe/d
The US Sector of Gulf of Mexico
36
PETROBRAS
International - Main Projects in the Gulf of Mexico
• Petrobras (50%) - Operator
• Devon (50%)
• Petrobras (67%) - Operator
• Total (33%)
• Petrobras (80%) - Operator
• Mariner (20%)
Cascade(Under Evaluation)
Chinook(Under Evaluation)
Cottonwood(Development)
• EXPLORATION WELLS •Petrobras (20% to 100%)
• Various partners (Exxon, Newfield, BP,• BHPBilliton, Dominion, Carrizo, Hess,• Kerr McGee
LONG TERM COMMITMENTSTwo drilling units on long term contracts
• Petrobras (25%)
• Unocal (20%) - Operator
• Chevron (13%)
• Encana (6%)
• Devon (23%)
• Exxon (4%)
• ENI (1%)
Blackbeard, Megamata (deep gas)Andromeda (WGoM), Alsace (GBanks)
Saint Malo(Under Evaluation)
37
PETROBRAS
• Petrobras recently announced the acquisition of additional participation in the Cascade and Chinook fields;
• Both fields will be developed using a FPSO* facility, a development concept so far never deployed in the American waters of the Gulf of Mexico;
• Petrobras is conducting an aggressive exploration campaign in the Gulf of Mexico, which includes acquisition of additional acreage and participation in wells being drilled or planned for the near future;
• With these developments, Petrobras consolidates its position as one of the leading players in the ultra deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, benefiting from its deepwater expertise and technology developed offshore Brazil
* Floating Production Storage and Offloading
Recent Developments - Gulf of Mexico
38
PETROBRAS
2,000m
1,000m
2,000m
1,000m
37,5%37,5%
9%9%
40%40%13%13%
Production (2005):8,300 bpd Proven reserves (SPE):9,1 million bbl
Start up / Production Peak:AGBAMI:- First oil: 2008 / Peak: 250,000 bpd in 2009 (total)AKPO:- First oil: 2008 / Peak: 175,000 bpd in 2009 (total)Proven reserves (SPE): 249 million bbl
315
International - Main Projects in West of Africa
39
PETROBRAS
• As a consequence to the measures adopted by the Bolivian Government, Petrobras will act to:
• Protect its interests through negotiations by all legal means;
• Suspend all new investments in Bolivia as well as those related to the Bolivia-Brazil Gas Pipeline (GASBOL);
• Immediately initiate studies to diversify supply sources, including LNG regasefication project(s);
26.5 31.4 43.0 54.3 61.5 69.630.0 30.030.0
30.030.0
30.0
11.011.04.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic Production Imports from Bolivia as of existing GSA
National Production Increase or LNG
Natural Gas Offer - Million m3/day Substitution of additional imports from Bolivia
Situation in Bolivia
40
PETROBRAS
North and Central America
37%
Europe
9.8%
South America
38%
Asia
16.2%
Ethanol global market – 46.5 Billions LitersEthanol global market – 46.5 Billions Liters
Brazil35%
Brazil35%
How much the production can be increased to attend the demand with social responsibility?
A New Opportunity for Business
41
PETROBRAS
Agribusiness
Farming
Seeds
or
or
or
Ethanol
Methanol
Glycerin + Others
Biodiesel
B2 or B5mixture
orDiesel
Distributors
DieselRefinery
Hydrogen Diesel Fractions
Stations
ProcessedOil
Crushing
Transerestification
Complementary and not competitive processes
• H-Bio: refining process that utilizes vegetable oils as an input, in order to obtain diesel oil
• Hydrogenation of a blend of diesel and vegetable oils
Biofuel Production
42
PETROBRAS
2007-2011 Investments 2011 Target
Biodiesel Plants Availability of 855 Thous. m3/year
H-Bio (Bio-Refining) Processing 425 Thous. m3/year of vegetable oil
Wind Power
Photovoltaic 240 MW Installed Capacity of Power Generation from Renewable Sources
Alcohol pipelines3.5 million m3 Ethanol Exports
Alcohol Vessel Project
Other Renewable Energy Sources
* 2010 Target
Investments of US$ 0.7 billion in development of renewable energy sources and biofuels
Renewable Energy and Biofuels
PETROBRAS
2005to
2007(2% allowable)
2008to
2012(2% demanding)
(5% allowable)
From 2012on
(5% demanding)
Brazilian market0 – 5.2 million barrels
Petrobras market share0 – 1.3 million barrels
Brazilian market5.2 – 15.7 million barrels
Petrobras market share1.3 -3.8 million barrels
Brazilian market15.7 million barrels
Petrobras market share3.8 million barrels
Law 11.097/2005 – established minimal percentage for biodiesel mix in diesel
• Petrobras target for 2010: Production of 8,200 bpd of Biodiesel• Two new experimental units of biodiesel (Guamaré – Rio Grande do Norte), which have received investments of R$ 19 million in research & development until now, will produce up to 300 bpd of biodiesel.
Future Markets for biodiesel
44
PETROBRAS
• Ethanol global market is 46.5 Billion Liters (2005)
• Ethanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billion Liters (67% of total ethanol production)
• Today the ethanol consumption is 2.6% of gasoline MKT
• 10% of ethanol in gasoline will represent 118 Billion Lt
• Recently, Petrobras incorporated Brazil-Japan Ethanol Inc.
• The company will import and distribute Brazilian-produced ethanol in Japan;
• Development of technical and commercial solutions for the reliable and long term supply of alcohol in the Japanese market;
• Petrobras will break into one of the most complex and important energy markets in the World:
• ethanol logistics distribution
• fuel distribution sector in Japan.
Brazil-Japan Ethanol Inc.
Ethanol Market
45
PETROBRAS
Marine Terminal Rio de Janeiro
Marine Terminal São Paulo
New Ethanol Pipeline (800 km)
New Water Wayfor Ethanol Ethanol Export
8.0 Million m3 in 2012
Ethanol Logistic to ExportEthanol Logistic to Export
46
PETROBRAS
• Consumer wants to decide the fuel at the gas station
• Fuel price is one the most important factor
• Consumer is aware of pollution and renewable fuels
• Today cars manufacturer is producing 80% of FFV in Brazil
010,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
units
Jan-
03
Feb-
03
Mar
-03
Apr
-03
May
-03
Jun-
03
Jul-0
3
Aug
-03
Sep-
03
Oct
-03
Nov
-03
Dec
-03
Jan-
04
Feb-
04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04
Jul-0
4
Aug
-04
Sep-
04
Oct
-04
Nov
-04
Dec
-04
Jan-
05
Feb-
05
Mar
-05
Apr
-05
May
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Aug
-05
Sep-
05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06
Feb-
06
Mar
-06
LIGHT VEHICLES TOTAL SALES
Ethanol Gasoline FFV
Flex-Fuel Vehicles
PETROBRAS
3rd Quarter 2006 Results(Brazilian Corporate Law)
48
PETROBRAS
1,779
1,736
1,751 1,757
1,725
3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q061.7001.7101.7201.7301.7401.7501.7601.7701.7801.790
Domestic oil and NGL productionth
ousa
ndbp
d
∆ = 3.1%∆ = 1.3%
• 1.3% increase due to P-50 (Albacora Leste) and FPSO Capixaba (Golfinho) platforms performances, both recently started operations;
• In the 3Q06, P-50’s contribution was around 18 thous. bpd above 2Q06 average, while FPSO Capixaba increased production around 8 thous. bpd in the same period.
49
PETROBRAS
US$
10.
80 b
bl
E&P – Oil Prices
• The spread between Brazilian oil and Brent decreased from US$ 11.42/bbl, in the 2Q06, to US$ 10.80/bbl, in the 3Q06.
36,14 35,1137,48
43,04
54,24
46,05
53,69
58,2 58,6951,59
69,4969,62
61,75
56,9
61,53
47,8344,00
41,59
38,9839,70 44,19
49,33
56,39
52,7
57,59
64,7466,07
3T04 4T04 1T05 2T05 3T05 4T05 1T06 2T06 3T06
US
$/bb
l
Average Sales Price Brent (average) Cesta OPEP
50
PETROBRAS
5.446.07 6.32 6.12 6.64
3Q 05 4Q 05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
∆ = 8.5% or US$ 0.52
Domestic Lifting Costs without Government ParticipationU
S$/b
bl
Main Causes• Higher expenditure in:
• Transportation cost, seismic and drilling for wells intervention;• Corrective maintenances;• Higher costs due to initial operational phase in Albacora Leste and Golfinho
fields.
51
PETROBRAS
Lifting Costs including Government Participation
• Government participation remained stable due to the stability of the Brent price, FX rate and production.
59%
3,0 3,4 4,3 6,0 5,4 5,4 6,1 6,3 6,64,0 5,1
6,47,7 8,4 9,7 10,0 11,0
6,1
11,511,4
69,569,6
24,828,8
38,2
47,551,6 61,5 56,9
61,8
-4
1
6
11
16
21
26
2002 2003 2004 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
US$
/boe
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Lifting Cost Gov. Participation Brent
7.08.5
10.7
13.6 13.915.2 16.1
17.3 17.5 18.1
57%
63%
62% 63
%
Obs.: Lifting Cost w/ gov. part. series was adjusted (retroactive to 2002) due to new ANP interpretation of the expense deductibility for the Finance Project of Marlim Field, calculated as special participation.
52
PETROBRAS
1.7951.8121.7611.804 1.753 1.7571.6841.6491.647
1.720
89
91 91
91 93
798180 80 79
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2.200
2.400
3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06505560
65707580
859095
D o mest ic o il pro ducts pro ductio n Oil pro ducts sales vo lume
P rimary pro cessed installed capacity - B razil (%) D o mest ic crude as % o f to tal
%
Thou
s. b
arre
ls/d
ay
Refining and Sales in the Domestic Market
• 4 pp reduction in throughput due to: • Oil supply limitation;• More scheduled stoppages compared to 2Q06;
• 1 pp decrease in domestic crude participation in processed feedstock due to operational problems in Golfinho (less light oil) and increase spread between fuel oil and domestic heavy oil (more profitable to export).
• Increase in sales volume due to seasonality in agricultural diesel consumption, industrial fuel oil and substitution of imported naphtha.
53
PETROBRAS
1.862.03
1.902.07
2.48
3Q 05 4Q 05 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06
• 20% increase compared to the previous quarter due to the occurrence of more scheduled stoppages.
Domestic Refining Costs (US$/bbl)
54
PETROBRAS
20
40
60
80
100
Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06ARP Brazil (US$/bbl) Brent Average Price ARP USA (w/ volumes sold in Brazil)
72,28
69,49
81,83
3Q06Average
70,66
69,62
81,78
2Q06Average
• Prices in US reflect the Brent price decrease in September;• ARP in Brazil follows the mid term adjustments price policy.
3Q05Average
60,26
61,54
72,43
Average Realization Price - ARP
55
PETROBRAS
Thousand bpd 3Q06 2Q06 % Jan-Sept 06
Jan-Sept 05
%
Total Oil Products 1,757 1,684 4 1,697 1,658 2Alcohol, Nitrogen and others 35 13 169 26 26 0Natural Gas 250 239 5 240 224 7Total Domestic Market 2,042 1,936 5 1,963 1,908 3Exports 564 536 5 540 498 8International Sales 509 459 11 468 388 21Total International Market 1,073 995 8 1,008 886 14Total 3,115 2,931 6 2,971 2,794 6
Sales Volume
2006 includes ongoing exports
• Increase in the sales of fuel oil, diesel, LPG and gasoline.
56
PETROBRAS
6.959
11.267
13.614
21.260
37.948
7.085
10.303
12.912
27.066
43.363
Net Income
Operating Profit
EBITDA
COGS
Net Revenues
2Q06 3Q06
27.3%
1.8%
-5.2%
-8.6%
14.3%
Income Statement 3Q06 vs 2Q06R
$ M
illio
n
• Net Revenues: 5% increase in the domestic sales volume, oil exports (33%) and ARP (2%);
• COGS: ANP (National Petroleum Agency) new interpretation of special participation in the Marlim field (retroactive to 2002); expenses adjustment related to reinjected gas (Solimões, Campos and Esp. Santo Basins).
• Net Income: R$ 1.492 billion in benefits due to Interest on Own Capital provision, reduced in R$ 321 million relative to bonds buyback.
57
PETROBRAS
890
378
1.415
1.353
1.342
531
1.459
1.546
Others
Exploratory Costs
General andAdministrative Exp.
Sales Expenses
2Q06 3Q0614.3%
3.1%
40.5%
50.8%
Operating Expenses Analysis 3Q06 vs 2Q06
• Operating Expenses increase mainly because of:
• Sales Expenses: increase in domestic sales (5.5%) and oil exports volume (33%);
• Exploratory Costs: write-off of dried wells (Brazil and abroad);
• Others: hedge contract maturity with ANDINA (R$ 167 million) and others (R$ 285 million).
R$
mill
ion
58
PETROBRAS
Changes in Operating Profit (3Q06 vs. 2Q06)- E&PChanges in Operating Profit – R$ million
Domestic Oil, NGL and Condensate – thousand bpd 1,7791,757
• Quarter characterized by the increase in production and accounting of extraordinary items.
10.938 18
1.040536
408420
6426 10.198
2Q06 Oper.Profits
Price effecton Net
Revenue
Volumeeffect on Net
Revenue
Average costeffect on
COGs
GasReinjection
Effect
Marlim part.Calculation
Effect
Volumeeffect on
COGs
OperatingExpenses
3Q06 Oper.Profits
Extraordinary Items:
R$ 834 million
59
PETROBRAS
2.486
1.017
2.160
106 1.461
2.944
3.168
2Q06 Oper.Profit
Price effect onNet Revenue
Volume effecton Net
Revenue
Average costeffect on COG
Volume effecton COGs
Oper. Exp. 3Q06 Oper.Profit
Changes in Operating Profit (3Q06 vs 2Q06)- SupplyChanges in Operating Profit – R$ million
• Increase in oil products domestic sales volume (4%), offset by inventory sales with a higher average cost.
60
PETROBRAS
507
183
219 283
156
137
333
2Q06Operating
Profit
Price Effect onRevenues
Volume Effecton Revenues
Cost Effect onCOGS
Volume Effecton COGS
OperatingExpenses
3Q06Operating
Profit
• Cost effect on COGS due to:• Increase in the production costs in Bolivia resulting from tax increase on hydrocarbons from
50% to 82% as of May 2006.• Stoppage in the San Lorenzo refinery, Argentina.
Changes in Operating Profit (3Q06 vs 2Q06)- InternationalChanges in Operating Profit – R$ million
61
PETROBRAS
Main factors that affected the Gas & Energy Business
• R$ 581 million loss mainly due to: • R$ 150 million decrease in gross income due to lower energy
commercialization margins because of increase in the Electric Energy Commercialization price (decrease in reservoirs water level in South region);
• Loss accrual of R$ 167 million, resulting from conclusion of hedge contract that reduced imported natural gas price volatility.
• These factors were partially offset by the 5% increase in the natural gas sales volume.
Gas & Energy Results (3T06 vs. 2T06)
62
PETROBRAS
• COGS: influenced by extraordinary effects (R$ 426 million reinjected gas and R$ 408 million special participation costs in Marlim field) and sales of higher costs inventories;
• Operating Expenses: write-off of dried wells (Brazil and foreign); increase in the domestic sales and oil exports volume; maturity of the hedge with ANDINA, operating expenses with thermoelectric plants and others.
Domestic Oil, NGL and Condensate – thousand bpd 1,7791,757
Changes in Net Profit – R$ million (3Q06 vs 2Q06)
6.959
5.415 4.982
573824341 321
1.603 149 7.085
2Q06 NetProfit
Revenues GOGS w/oextraordinary
items
Extr. Items Oper. Exp. Fin. and NonOper. Exp.
and Eq.Income
BondsBuyback
Taxes MinorityInterest
3Q06 NetIncome
Extraordinary Items andBonds Buyback:
R$ 1.145 million
63
PETROBRAS
181263 262
257
355267233
209269
213249
228
2003 2004 2005 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
Oil Oil Products
446536
512 519
409
450352 344
115
319 354 373
105 94
109
88137
2003 2004 2005 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
Oil Oil Products
424 446 442459
559564510
Imports (thousand bpd)Exports (thousand bpd)
Net exports of oil and oil products
54 thous. bpd volume surplus in the 3Q06
2006 includes ongoing exports
• Oil exports increase due to scheduled stoppages in refineries with high complexity;• Oil products imports increase due to the seasonal increase in the diesel
consumption.
64
PETROBRAS
R$ million 09/30/2006 06/30/2006Short Term debt (1) 11,858 12,214Long Term Debt (1) 32,280 31,307
Total Debt 44,138 43,521
Cash and Cash Equivalents 24,519 22,713
Net debt (2) 19,619 20,808
18%20%
26%24%
17%
28%26%
19% 23%
27%
set/05 dez/05 mar/06 jun/06 set/06
Net Debt/Net CapitalizationShort-Term Debt/Total Debt
LeveragePetrobras’ Leverage Ratio
(1)Includes debt contracted through leasing contracts of R$ 3.300 million on December 31, 2005, and R$ 4.021 million on December 31, 2004.(2)Total debt - cash and cash equivalents
(1)Includes debt contracted through leasing contracts of R$ 2,729 million on September 30, 2006, and R$ 2,815 million on June 30, 2006.(2)Total debt - cash and cash equivalents
• Decrease in total and net debt:
• Strong operating cash generation allows reduction of the debt (bonds buyback) and increase in cash balance.
65
PETROBRAS
3Q06 2Q06(=) Net Cash from Operating Activities 10,209 11,365 (-) Cash used in Cap. Expend. (8,337) (6,640) (=) Free Cash Flow 1,872 4,725 (-) Cash used in Financing and Dividends (66) (4,995) Financing (60) (1,472) Dividends (6) (3,523) (=) Net Cash Generated in the Period 1,806 (270) Cash at the Beginning of Period 22,713 22,983 Cash at the End of Period 24,519 22,713
R$ million
• R$ 1,8 billion increase in Free Cash Flow.
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
66
PETROBRAS
Jan-Sept/06 % Jan-Sept/05 % %• Direct investments 20.264 90 14.751 87 37 Exploration & Production 11.404 51 8.907 53 28 Supply 2.800 13 2.184 13 28 Gas and Energy 1.203 5 1.098 6 10 International 3.923 17 1.871 11 110 Distribution 477 2 368 2 30 Corporate 457 2 323 2 41 • Special Purpose Companies 2.072 9 1.914 11 8
• Ventures under Negotiation 300 1 169 1 78
• Project Finance 1 0 87 1 0
Total Investments 22.637 100 16.921 100 34
R$ million
Investments (Capex)
• Following the targets established in its Business Plan, the company continues to invest primarily in Exploration and Production.