aacrao 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Higher Education at a Crossroads:
The Five Worrisome Trends
Is the Higher Education Bubble About to Burst?
Housing: Easy access to credit, fueled demand (multiple offers), fueled prices (competing bids), fueled trading up and flipping…
Higher Education: Easy access to credit for students, fueled demand for higher-priced colleges, fueled application and enrollment growth (especially at for-profits), fueled colleges to borrow more to meet student “needs”
The end of the climbing wall era?
Worry #1
The jobless recovery and what it means for families
Worry #2
The end of the records: applications and enrollment
Applications to College
In 2009, about 75% of colleges reported receiving more applications than in the previous year. Only 18% of institutions reported application decreases.
74% of Fall 2008 freshmen applied to three or more colleges, an increase of 13 percentage points over the last 18 years. The percentage of students who submitted seven or more applications also increased, reaching 22% in Fall 2008.
SOURCE: National Association for College Admission Counseling
Increases in Undergraduate Enrollment, 1998-2008
Projected Change in Number of High School Graduates 2011-2021
Worry #3
Unsustainable tuition rates and student debt
Tuition & Fees
SOURCE: The College Board
Tuition & Fees Compared to State Appropriations
SOURCE: The College Board
Tuition Discounting
Percentage growth since 1990-91 in average price for tuition, fees, room, and board, adjusted for inflation:
Distribution of Debt, 2007-8
Total Debt for Graduate Degree Recipients, 2007-8
Worry #4
The for-profit bubble
Undergraduate Enrollment by Type of College, 1998-2008
3-year default rates are 5 times as high as 2-year rates at some colleges
Worry #5
Families unwilling to pay big bucks just for the credential
Academically Adrift?
Price-sensitive students and families Asking: What are we paying for? Want quality and job placement. Defining and paying for the core experience.
.
Academically Adrift?
Limited or no learning by a majority of students45% of students made no gains on the Collegiate Learning Assessment during their first two years in college 36% made no gains over the entire four years
How much faculty demand matters Students who were assigned more books and more papers
to write learned moreThose who spent more hours studying alone learned more
Field of study matters Humanities, social sciences, hard sciences, and math did
relatively well. Students majoring in business, education, and social work
did not.
Increasingly, Faculty Members Are Part-Time and Nontenured
We’re Both in the Information Delivery Business
Audrey Williams June: Academic workplace issues
Eric Hoover: Admissions | Head Count blog
Josh Fischman: Faculty and Technology
Jennifer Ruark: Features and Chronicle Review
Scott Carlson: Facilities and Architecture
Goldie Blumenstyk: College finance | For-profits| Technology transfer
Jeff Young: Technology | Teaching
David Glenn: Teaching | Curriculum | Assessment
What Are the Signs?
“Newspapers had a decade to transform themselves before being overtaken by the digital future. They had a lot of advantages: brand names, highly skilled staff members, money in the bank. They were the best in the world at what they did — and yet, it wasn't enough. The difficulties of change and the temptations to hang on and hope for the best were too strong.”
-Kevin CaryThe Chronicle, April 3, 2009
