abj politics

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Miami Debate Institute 2008 ABJPolitics & Elections /

Politics & Elections Disadvantages

POLITICS & E LECTIONS DISADVANTAGES ..........................................................................................................................................11NC OCS D RILLING BUSH BAD DA.........................................................................................................................................31NC OCS D RILLING BUSH BAD DA.........................................................................................................................................41NC OCS D RILLING BUSH BAD DA.........................................................................................................................................5OCS U NIQUENESS WONT PASS.................................................................................................................................................6OCS U NIQUENESS WONT PASS.................................................................................................................................................7OCS U NIQUENESS WONT PASS.................................................................................................................................................8OCS U NIQUENESS BUSH PUSHING ..............................................................................................................................................9OCS U NIQUENESS BUSH PUSHING ............................................................................................................................................10OCS I NTERNAL LINK POLITICAL CAPITAL K EY/AT: U O VERWHELMS ............................................................................................11OCS I NTERNAL LINK W INNERS W IN.........................................................................................................................................12OCS I MPACT OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS ............................................................................................................................................13OCS I MPACT M ETHANE HYDRATES MODULE ..............................................................................................................................14OCS I MPACT M ETHANE HYDRATES ...........................................................................................................................................15OCS I MPACT O IL SPILLS .........................................................................................................................................................16OCS I MPACT AT: D RILLING DECREASES OIL PRICES ...................................................................................................................171NC E LECTIONS DA..............................................................................................................................................................181NC E LECTIONS DA..............................................................................................................................................................191NC E LECTIONS DA..............................................................................................................................................................201NC E LECTIONS DA..............................................................................................................................................................21ELECTIONS U NIQUENESS O BAMA WILL W IN ..............................................................................................................................22ELECTIONS U NIQUENESS O BAMA WILL W IN...............................................................................................................................23ELECTIONS U NIQUENESS O BAMA WILL W IN...............................................................................................................................24ELECTIONS I NTERNAL LINK BUSH POPULARITY K EY....................................................................................................................25ELECTIONS I NTERNAL LINK BUSH POPULARITY K EY....................................................................................................................26AT: M CCAIN DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM BUSH...........................................................................................................................27ELECTIONS I NTERNAL LINK IRAQ DISTRACTION MODULE ..............................................................................................................28

ELECTIONS I NTERNAL LINK IRAQ DISTRACTION EXT....................................................................................................................29ELECTIONS I NTERNAL LINK IRAQ DISTRACTION EXT....................................................................................................................30AT: I RAQ IS THE K EY ISSUE.......................................................................................................................................................31ELECTIONS D EFENDING THE K EYS MODEL ...............................................................................................................................32ELECTIONS SOLVES THE CASE ALTERNATIVE E NERGY ...................................................................................................................33ELECTIONS SOLVES THE CASE CELLULOSIC ETHANOL ..................................................................................................................34ELECTIONS IMPACT POLISH BMD M ODULE ................................................................................................................................35ELECTIONS IMPACT YUCCA MOUNTAIN MODULE ..........................................................................................................................36ELECTIONS IMPACT IRAN STRIKES MODULE .................................................................................................................................37ELECTIONS IMPACT IRAN STRIKES EXT.......................................................................................................................................38ELECTIONS IMPACT TERRORISM MODULE ....................................................................................................................................39ELECTIONS IMPACT OCS D RILLING MODULE ..............................................................................................................................40

ELECTIONS IMPACT OCS D RILLING EXT. ..................................................................................................................................41ALTERNATIVE E NERGY POPULAR AMONG PUBLIC .........................................................................................................................42ALTERNATIVE E NERGY POPULAR AMONG PUBLIC .........................................................................................................................43ALTERNATIVE E NERGY POPULAR I N CONGRESS ............................................................................................................................44ALTERNATIVE E NERGY BUSH & GOP S UPPORTS .........................................................................................................................45ALTERNATIVE E NERGY BUSH SUPPORTS ......................................................................................................................................46ALTERNATIVE E NERGY GOP O PPOSES .......................................................................................................................................47ALTERNATIVE E NERGY DEMOCRATS SUPPORT ..............................................................................................................................48BIOFUELS POPULAR I N CONGRESS ..............................................................................................................................................49BIOFUELS POPULAR AMONG PUBLIC ...........................................................................................................................................50

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Miami Debate Institute 2008 ABJPolitics & Elections /BIOFUELS BUSH SUPPORTS ........................................................................................................................................................51BIOFUELS DEMOCRATS SUPPORT ................................................................................................................................................52CAP & TRADE R EPUBLICANS OPPOSE ........................................................................................................................................53CELLULOSIC ETHANOL LOBBIES SUPPORT ....................................................................................................................................54CELLULOSIC ETHANOL BUSH SUPPORTS ......................................................................................................................................55CORN ETHANOL U NPOPULAR AMONG PUBLIC ..............................................................................................................................56CORN ETHANOL GOP O PPOSES ................................................................................................................................................57CORN ETHANOL D EMOCRATS ARE SPLIT.....................................................................................................................................58GEOTHERMAL E NERGY BUSH OPPOSES .......................................................................................................................................59HYDROGEN CARS POPULAR AMONG PUBLIC ................................................................................................................................60

NUCLEAR E NERGY POPULAR AMONG PUBLIC ..............................................................................................................................61 NUCLEAR E NERGY GOP S UPPORTS ...........................................................................................................................................62RPS C ONTROVERSIAL I N CONGRESS ..........................................................................................................................................63RPS P OPULAR I N CONGRESS ....................................................................................................................................................64RPS P OPULAR I N CONGRESS ....................................................................................................................................................65RPS D EMOCRATS SUPPORT .......................................................................................................................................................66SOLAR E NERGY POPULAR I N CONGRESS .....................................................................................................................................67SOLAR E NERGY U NPOPULAR I N CONGRESS .................................................................................................................................68SOLAR E NERGY POPULAR AMONG PUBLIC ..................................................................................................................................69SOLAR E NERGY BUSH SUPPORTS ...............................................................................................................................................70WIND E NERGY U NPOPULAR I N CONGRESS ..................................................................................................................................71WIND E NERGY D EMOCRATS SUPPORT .........................................................................................................................................72

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1NC OCS Drilling Bush Bad DA

A.) UNIQUENESS : THE BAN ON OCS DRILLING WILL NOT BE LIFTED NOW DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION IS THE KEY STUMBLING BLOCK

Anderson, 6/19 /2008 (Ericka, News Producer and Reporter for Human Events, Bush Wants To Drill Offshore, Human Events,http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27083)

President Bush -- almost sounding like former Speaker Newt Gingrich -- pushed for offshore oil drilling on Americas OuterContinental Shelf (OCS) yesterday, urging Congress to lift the legislative ban on exploration in that area. As the nationsgas prices skyrocketed again this week -- in some places up to $4.30/gallon -- Democrats opposition to in-country drilling facesheavy criticism. Bush said his administration has repeatedly called on Congress to expand domestic oil production butDemocrats on Capitol Hill have rejected virtually every proposal. Offshore drilling, banned under a 1981 federalmoratorium, could produce years of sufficient oil production. But the practice is frowned on by environmentalists even thoughrecent technological advances make it possible to drill without harming the natural environments. With these advances -- and adramatic increase in oil prices -- congressional restrictions on OCS exploration have become outdated and counterproductive,said Bush. Republicans in Congress have put forth several measures to lift the legislative ban on exploration but they needDemocratic support to move forward.

B.) LINK : THE PLAN BUILDS POLITICAL CAPITAL WITH DEMOCRATS


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AND DEMOCRATS WONT COMPROMISE ON OCS DRILLING BECAUSE BUSH HAS FAILED TO INVEST IN RENEWABLE ENERGY . THE PLAN WOULD GIVE BUSH THE POLITICAL CAPITAL NEEDED TO LIFT CURRENT DRILLING BANS

Snow, 6/18 /2008 (Nick, Washington Editor for Oil & Gas Journal, Bush Urges Congress to Lift Ban on OCS Leasing, Oil &Gas Journal, Volume 106 Issue 24, http://www.ogj.com/display_article/332129/7/ONART/none/GenIn/1/Bush-urges-Congress-

to-lift-bans-on-OCS-leasing/)

US President George W. Bush urged Congress to lift oil and gas leasing bans on the Outer Continental Shelf as the first of four steps to increase domestic supplies in response to soaring prices. "Experts believe that the OCS could produce about 18 billion bbl of oil.That would be enough to match America's current oil production for almost 10 years. The problem is that Congress has restricted access to key parts of the OCSsince the early 1980s," Bush said on June 18. "Since then, advances in technology have made it possible to conduct oil exploration in the OCS that is out of sight, protects coral reefs and habitats, and protects against oil spills. With these advances, and a dramatic increase in oil prices, congressional restrictions onOCS exploration have become outdated and counter-productive," Bush said. Bush also asked Congress to authorize oil and gas leasing within the Arctic NationalWildlife Refuge, remove a moratorium on the development of a federal oil-shale leasing program, and expedite permitting for new US refineries or expansion of existing ones. But Bush's call to end OCS drilling bans produced the strongest responses. Same old ideas CongressionalDemocratic leaders weighed in immediately. Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) called Bush's OCS proposaland a similar recommendation a day earlier by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the presumed 2008 Republican presidentialnominee, "nothing more than a cynical campaign ploy that will do nothing to lower energy prices and represents another big giveaway to oilcompanies already making billions in profits." Reid said oil companies aren't even using half of the federal lands they have leased already, and domestic refined

product output actually has dropped despite incentives Bush and Republican Congresses provided to invest in new domestic refineries. "President Bush andJohn McCain are not serious about addressing [gasoline] prices. If they were, they would stop offering the same old ideasmeant to pad the pockets of Big Oil and work with Democrats to reduce our dependence on oil, invest in the renewable energy

sources , crack down on excessive speculation and stand up to countries colluding to shake down American consumers," Reidsaid . In a statement issued the night before Bush's speech, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said the president's proposal "sounds like another page fromthe administration's energy policy that was literally written by the oil industry: give away more public resources to the very same oil companies that are sitting on68 million acres of federal lands they've already leased." House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Nick J. Rahall (D-W.Va.) said 81% of estimated oil andgas resources on federal lands, both onshore and offshore, are available for development, or will be pending completion of land-use planning or environmentalreviews. "If the oil industry would drill these areas nowareas that are available for them to drill in now, todaythe amount of oil produced would representover 14 years of domestic consumption and 30 years of current domestic natural gas consumption," Rahall said in a statement posted June 18 at the committee'sweb site. Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ) said Bush and McCain's calls to expand federal OCS leasing are "a gift to the oil companies that endangers theeconomic and environmental health of the Jersey Shore and our entire state." He said, "The Bush-McCain drilling scheme chooses Big Oil over Americanconsumers and does nothing to immediately reduce [gasoline] prices. While we have offered real solutions to reduce prices at the pump, the Bush-McCainRepublicans have blocked our efforts at the behest of the oil companies." Move beyond rhetoric But at least one congressional Democrat ,Sen. Mary L. Landrieu (D-La.), broke with most other House and Senate members in her party . She said , "President Bush's

attempt today to expand energy production off our coasts is very welcome , and is a wise position he should have taken earlier in the 7years we've been pushing this White House to get engaged. She added that she plans to immediately reintroduce her bill to allow states to opt-in to offshore production and share federal revenues. "I hope President Bush is prepared to move beyond rhetoric and work with me to build the coalition we will need to get the job done," Landrieu said. In his speech, Bush said congressional Republicans have proposed"several promising bills that would lift the legislative ban on oil exploration in the OCS." He said, "I call on the House andSenate to pass good legislation as soon as possible." He acknowledged that there also is an executive prohibition againstOCS exploration which he will lift as soon as Congress lifts its moratoriums . The moratoriums have been part of the US Department of Interior's annual budget for more than 25 years, initially renewed annually but recently made permanent. Rep. John E. Peterson (R-Pa.) tried to get them removedon June 11 when the House Appropriations Committee's Interior and Environment Committee marked up DOI's fiscal 2009 budget, but his motion failed in a 9-6vote along party lines. Peterson planned to try again when the full committee dealt with the DOI budget on June 18, but the hearing was postponed early thatmorning. Other congressional Republicans immediately endorsed Bush's plan. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) said,"With gasoline at $4.07/gal, the American people cannot afford to wait any longer for Congress to act to produce more American energy. When a state chooses toallow environmentally sound deepsea exploration off its coast, they should not be blocked by a decades-old ban that makes no sense today." Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.), ranking minority member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said, "The president's proposal kills one of the Democratic Party's sacred cows

the ban on offshore energy explorationand is both overdue and very welcome. It must be clear to nearly everybody by now that Congress cannot tax or

conserve its way out of the $4/gal swamp that's stalling economic growth and forcing working people to pick between driving and eating. Using Americanresources to help Americans out of this mess is a good idea, and I hope Speaker Pelosi will not simply reject it again because she's a Democrat and the presidentis not." America demanding action Pete V. Domenici: (R-NM), ranking minority member of the Senate Energy and NaturalResources Committee, said, "Thus far, the other side has shown no willingness to work with us to increase production.However, over the next several weeks, I will continue to push forward with all or some of these ideas because the American people are demanding action. For instance, a new poll released just yesterday found that 67% of Americans support deepsea exploration offshore," said.The telephone survey by RasmussenReports, an electronic publishing firm specializing in public opinion polling, also found that 18% of the respondents oppose more offshore US oil and gasactivity while 15% were undecided. Conservative and moderate voters strongly backed the idea but liberals were more evenly divided, with 46% in favor and37% opposed, the company said on June 17. "Nearly all voters are worried about rising [gasoline] and energy prices, with 79% very concerned and 16%somewhat concerned," it added. Rasmussen conducted its survey before McCain and Bush's announcements.


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C.) IMPACT : OFFSHORE DRILLING DEVASTATES OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS

Clean Ocean Action, 2001 (Comments on the 2002-2007 OCS Plan,http://www.cleanoceanaction.org/TakeAction/Oil&Gas/Oil&Gas.htm)

Negative impacts from offshore oil and gas exploration and development activities have been documented in domestic andforeign waters, and on their coastlines. These impacts include but are not limited to the following: Release of toxic metals intoocean waters from oil and gas activities. The drilling muds or fluids can contain significant quantities of toxic metals. For example, by the 1980s more than 2 million pounds of toxic metals were being discharged into the Gulf each year as a result of offshore oil and gas activities; Disturbance and destruction of the benthic environment from well drilling and productionactivities, including smothering of benthic organisms ; Release of "produced waters" from offshore activities. Water extractedwith oil from the oil-bearing formation contains very substantial amounts of oil and grease, as well as heavy metals, toxicorganics and a variety of highly toxic additives, which can create acute and chronic toxicity problems. The EnvironmentalProtection Agency (EPA) has documented the presence of 21 organic priority pollutants, along with metals and various

pesticides, biocides and chemical additives, in the Gulf of Mexico from offshore production;

AND - OCEAN DESTRUCTION ENSURES PLANETARY EXTINCTION

Craig, 2003 (Robin, Associate Professor at Indiana University School of Law, Taking Steps Toward Marine WildernessProtection, McGeorge Law Review, Lexis)

Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, but these arguments havethus far rarely been raised in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs

provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. Waste treatment is another significant, non-extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. More generally, "oceanecosystems play a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocksof living organisms, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but necessary elements."In a very real and direct sense, therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to supportlife. Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Current evidence showsthat, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on itsbiodiversity , "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable." Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity. Mostecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marineenvironment. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that many otherwiseinsignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. Thus, maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is criticalto maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of marine disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness. However, economicvalue, or economic value equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also haveconsiderable force and merit." At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea - and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenicharm to the oceans, but we now know that such harm is occurring - even though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem.Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we aredoing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territoryrelatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. We may not know much about the sea, but we doknow this much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves, and we will take most of the biosphere with us. The Black Sea is almostdead, its once-complex and productive ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies, "starving out fish and dolphins, emptying

fishermen's nets, and converting the web of life into brainless, wraith-like blobs of jelly." More importantly, the Black Sea is not necessarily unique. The Black Sea is a microcosm of what is happening to the ocean systems at large. The stresses piled up: overfishing, oil spills, industrial discharges, nutrient pollution,wetlands destruction, the introduction of an alien species. The sea weakened, slowly at first, then collapsed with shocking suddenness. The lessons of this tragedyshould not be lost to the rest of us, because much of what happened here is being repeated all over the world. The ecological stresses imposed on the Black Seawere not unique to communism. Nor, sadly, was the failure of governments to respond to the emerging crisis. Oxygen-starved "dead zones" appearwith increasing frequency off the coasts of major cities and major rivers, forcing marine animals to flee and killing all thatcannot. Ethics as well as enlightened self-interest thus suggest that the United States should protect fully-functioningmarine ecosystems wherever possible - even if a few fishers go out of business as a result.


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OCS Uniqueness Wont Pass

OCS DRILLING WONT BE APPROVED NOW

AFP, 6/18 /2008 (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jwL5xfYWjLhKSvKBpKS4ZTIsMfZQ)

US President George W. Bush on Wednesday urged Congress to lift a decades-old ban on offshore oil drilling to reducedependence on foreign imports and offset sky-high energy prices. Calling the federal ban "outdated and counterproductive,"Bush asked the Democratic-controlled Congress to take action to expand access to the nation's Outer Continental Shelf."Congress must face a hard reality. Unless members are willing to accept gas (gasoline) prices at today's painful levels or evenhigher, our nation must produce more oil, and we must start now," Bush said in a news conference in the White House RoseGarden. Faced with a public outcry over soaring gasoline prices, Bush said Congress should lift or modify its ban for theentire outer continental shelf, then he would lift his executive directive. It would be up to individual states to decide whether toallow offshore drilling. With global crude prices at nearly 140 dollars a barrel, US gasoline prices now average more than four dollars a gallon (3.78 liters), a rise of one dollar from a year ago. Nearly 80 percent of respondents to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll said soaring pump prices were causing them financial hardship, which the Post said was the highest figure insurveys this decade. Bush chastised Congress for blocking his Republican administration's efforts to boost domestic oilproduction, and called on lawmakers to increase access to the Outer Continental Shelf , citing experts who say access theOCS could produce about 18 billion barrels of oil. "That would be enough to match America's current oil production for almost

10 years," he said. Under the 1981 federal moratorium, states are prohibited from allowing offshore oil and gas drilling andexploration, protecting virtually the entire Atlantic and Pacific coastlines and sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Critics of liftingthe drilling moratorium say it would jeopardize the environment and that production would take years to get up andrunning , and thus is not a realistic answer to the current supply crunch.


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OCS DRILLING WILL NOT BE APPROVED NOW DUE TO DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION BUSH NEEDS POLITICAL CAPITAL TO CONVINCE DEMOCRATS TO GET ON BOARD

CNN News, 6/18 /2008 (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/18/bush.offshore/)

President Bush asked Congress on Wednesday to permit drilling for oil in deep water off America's coasts to combat risingoil and gas prices. If President Bush can persuade Congress , more oil rigs like this one off Canada could appear off U.S.shores. "There is no excuse for delay," the president said in a Rose Garden statement. The proposal met opposition from governors from California, NewJersey North Carolina, and New Mexico. "We are in this situation because of our dependence on traditional petroleum-based oil," California Gov. ArnoldSchwarzenegger, a Republican, said in a statement, according to The Associated Press. "Our $35 billion economy is driven by tourism and the use of the shore,"AP quoted New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, as saying. "It's a very bad idea. First of all, it will take 30 years before it affects gas prices -- loweringthem -- and it will take 10 years to start the drilling," New Mexico Governor and former U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, a Democrat, told CNN. "Theanswer is a long-term policy that deals with -- substantial policies that promote -- conservation, fuel efficiency in vehicles, an emphasis on renewable energy."Watch Richardson explain his position "It's doesn't work for states to decide. If the state above or below you has a problem it affects your shores as well,"

North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, a Democrat said, according to AP. "It's too much squeeze for the juice when you look at real estate on the coast, recreationalfishing and tourism that could be adversely affected by some problem." Virginia and South Carolina have largely supported lifting the moratorium, AP reported.Oil production cost Here's what the price of a barrel of oil needs to be for different sources of petroleum to be profitably extracted: - Accessible land: $19 -Shallow water: $20-60 - Deep water: $60 - Shale mining: $30-50 - Oil sands: $50-60 Current price per barrel: $134 Sources: U.S. Govt. CERA, Rand,EnCana Bush also renewed his demand that Congress allow drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, clear the way for more refineries and encourageefforts to recover oil from shale in areas such as the Green River Basin of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. Bush said that the basin potentially contains more thanthree times as much recoverable oil as Saudi Arabia's proven reserves and that the high price of oil makes it profitable to extract it. Watch Bush make a case for new drilling "In the short run, the American economy will continue to rely largely on oil, and that means we need to increase supply here at home," Bush said,adding that there is no more pressing issue for many Americans than gas prices. Map: See where drilling is and isn't allowed Meanwhile, Wednesday at anenergy forum in Springfield, Missouri, Sen. John McCain continued his pitch for offshore drilling. "In the short term, this requires more domestic production,especially in the Outer Continental Shelf. We need to encourage production in ways that are consistent with sensible standards of environmental protection. Andin states that permit exploration, there must be a sharing of benefits between state and federal governments. But as a matter of fairness to the American people,we must assure affordable fuel for America by increasing domestic production," the presumed Republican presidential nominee said. An ally of McCain, FloridaGov. Charlie Crist, has reversed his opposition to oil exploration off the state's beaches, saying the issue is about local control, AP reported. "I think that nothaving that moratorium, blanket moratorium, and letting states rights be recognized, if you will, certainly is appropriate," AP quoted Crist as saying. The WhiteHouse estimates that there are 18 billion barrels of oil offshore that have not been exploited because of state bans, 10 billion to 12 billion in the Arctic NationalWildlife Refuge and 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Green River Basin. iReport.com: Is drilling the best option? However, much of the U.S. oil isdifficult or impossible to extract under current law. As for gas prices, resuming offshore exploration would not be a quick fix. "If wewere to drill today, realistically speaking, we should not expect a barrel of oil coming out of this new resource for threeyears, maybe even five years, so let's not kid ourselves," said Fadel Gheit, oil and gas analyst with Oppenheimer & Co. EquityCapital Markets Division. But it almost certainly would be profitable. Candida Scott, an oil industry researcher at Cambridge

Research Associates, said oil needs to be priced at $60 a barrel or more to justify deep-shelf drilling. With oil now selling for $134 a barrel, companies are almost assured of profiting from offshore drilling, Scott said . "For years, the president haspushed Congress to expand our domestic oil supply, but Democrats in Congress have consistently blocked such action,"White House press secretary Dana Perino said before Bush spoke. She added, "As with several existing Republicancongressional proposals, he wants to work with states to determine where offshore drilling should occur, and also for the federalgovernment to share revenues with the states. The president believes Congress shouldn't waste any more time." Watchinterests compete over oil Democrats were quick to reject Bush's proposal.


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OCS DRILLING WONT GET APPROVED NOW

Sydney Morning Herald, 6/19 /2008 (http://news.smh.com.au/world/bush-calls-for-lift-on-home-drilling-ban-20080619-2t1t.html)

US President George W Bush has urged Congress to lift a decades-old ban on offshore oil drilling to reduce dependence on importsand offset sky-high energy prices. Calling the federal ban "outdated and counterproductive," Bush asked the Democratic-controlled Congress to take action toexpand access to the nation's Outer Continental Shelf. "Congress must face a hard reality. Unless members are willing to accept gas (petrol) prices at today's

painful levels or even higher, our nation must produce more oil, and we must start now," Bush said in a news conference in the White House Rose Garden. Facedwith a public outcry over soaring petrol prices, Bush said Congress should lift or modify its ban for the entire outer continental shelf, then he would lift hisexecutive directive. It would be up to individual states to decide whether to allow offshore drilling. Congressional Democrats were quick to reject the push for lifting the drilling moratorium, saying oil companies already have 27.5 million hectares offshore waters under lease that are not being developed. The leader of the House of Representatives, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, called Bush's proposals "another page from (an)... energy policy that wasliterally written by the oil industry - give away more public resources." Senator Barack Obama, the Democrats' probable presidential nominee,rejected lifting the drilling moratorium that has been supported by a succession of presidents for nearly two decades. "This is not something that's going to giveconsumers short-term relief and it is not a long-term solution to our problems with fossil fuels generally and oil in particular," said Obama. Bush's proposalechoed a call by Republican presidential candidate John McCain to open the Continental Shelf for exploration Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , lumpingBush with McCain, accused them of staging a "cynical campaign ploy" that will not help lower energy prices. "Despite whatPresident Bush, John McCain and their friends in the oil industry claim, we cannot drill our way out of this problem," Reidsaid. "The math is simple: America has just three per cent of the world's oil reserves, but Americans use a quarter of its oil."With global crude prices at nearly $US140 a barrel, US petrol prices now average more than $US4 a gallon (3.78 litres), a rise of $US1 from a year ago. Bush chastised Congress for blocking his Republican administration's efforts to boost domestic oilproduction , and called on members of congress to increase access to the Outer Continental Shelf, citing experts who say access the OCS could produce about18 billion barrels of oil. "That would be enough to match America's current oil production for almost 10 years," he said. Under the 1981 federal moratorium,states are prohibited from allowing offshore oil and gas drilling and exploration, protecting virtually the entire Atlantic and Pacific coastlines and sections of theGulf of Mexico. Critics of lifting the drilling moratorium say it would jeopardise the environment and that productionwould take years to get up and running , and thus is not a realistic answer to the current supply crunch. Bush cited the nation's dramatic shift todependence on oil imports in recent decades as an economic and security risk. "Some of that energy comes from unstable regions and unfriendly regimes. Thismakes us more vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes beyond our control, and that puts both our economy and our security at risk," he said. The presidentalso urged Congress to allow exploration in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which McCain, unlike most Republicans, opposes. Bush warnedDemocrats that if Congress did not act quickly, "Americans will rightly ask how high oil - how high gas prices have to risebefore the Democratic-controlled Congress will do something about it."


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OCS Uniqueness Bush Pushing

BUSH IS PUSHING CONGRESS TO LIFT THE OCS DRILLING BAN

ENS, 6/18 /2008 (Environment News Service, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jun2008/2008-06-18-01.asp)

President George W. Bush today called on Congress to expand domestic oil production to lower record high oil and gas prices by lifting a ban on oil exploration in the Outer Continental Shelf that has been in place since 1981. Drilling for oiloffshore is one of four measures the president proposed to increase U.S. oil production - all of them certain to meet resistancefrom the Democratic Congressional leadership. Bush says America should develop oil shale in the Green River Basin of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming; he again proposed drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; and he also again

proposed increasing refinery capacity.

BUSH IS PUSHING OCS DRILLING

Tulsa Beacon, 6/26 /2008 (http://www.tulsabeacon.com/?p=544)

Pointing a finger at Democrats in Congress , President Bush has called on lawmakers to remove barriers to production of domestic oil and gas. In the short run, the American economy will continue to rely largely on oil, Bush said. And that meanswe need to increase supply , especially here at home. So my administration has repeatedly called on Congress to expanddomestic oil production. Unfortunately, Democrats on Capitol Hill have rejected virtually every proposal - and now Americansare paying the price at the pump for this obstruction. Congress must face a hard reality: Unless Members are willing to acceptgas prices at todays painful levels or even higher our nation must produce more oil. And we must start now. So thismorning, I ask Democratic Congressional leaders to move forward with four steps to expand American oil and gasoline

production. ContinuedBush said Congress should: Increase access to the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).

BUSH IS PUSHING FOR THE OCS DRILLING BAN TO BE LIFTED

AFP, 6/18 /2008 (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jwL5xfYWjLhKSvKBpKS4ZTIsMfZQ)

US President George W. Bush on Wednesday urged Congress to lift a decades-old ban on offshore oil drilling to reducedependence on foreign imports and offset sky-high energy prices. Calling the federal ban "outdated and counterproductive,"Bush asked the Democratic-controlled Congress to take action to expand access to the nation's Outer Continental Shelf."Congress must face a hard reality. Unless members are willing to accept gas (gasoline) prices at today's painful levels or evenhigher, our nation must produce more oil, and we must start now," Bush said in a news conference in the White House RoseGarden. Faced with a public outcry over soaring gasoline prices, Bush said Congress should lift or modify its ban for theentire outer continental shelf, then he would lift his executive directive.


10/72

OCS Uniqueness Bush Pushing

BUSH IS PUSHING TO LIFT THE CONGRESSIONAL BAN ON OCS DRILLING

Fox News, 6/19 /2008

President Bush on Wednesday put his weight behind a move underfoot in Congress to lift a 27-year-old ban on oilexploration off U.S. shores as gasoline prices reach ever higher , and he cast blame on Democrats for Americans' pain at the pump in an election year that is focusing more heavily on economic issues. Democrats contend that oil interest-tiedRepublicans are only seeking to expand oil companies' territory , and are ignoring land already available for oilexploration.For many Americans, there is no more pressing concern than the price of gasoline. Truckers and farmers, small-

business owners have been hit especially hard. Every American who drives to work, purchases food or ships a product has feltthe effect, and families across the country are looking to Washington for a response," Bush said, speaking from the White HouseRose Garden. He took no questions. Mentioning $4-per gallon gasoline more than once, Bush said, "My administration hasrepeatedly called on Congress to expand domestic oil production. Unfortunately, Democrats on Capitol Hill have rejectedvirtually every proposal , and now Americans are paying the price at the pump for this obstruction."Congress must face a hardreality: Unless members are willing to accept gas prices at today's painful levels or even higher, our nation must produce moreoil and we must start now." Bush said gasoline prices could eventually be eased with a four-point plan, the main plank of whichis to open up the Outer Continental Shelf to oil exploration.


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OCS Internal Link Political Capital Key/AT: U Overwhelms

OCS DRILLING WILL BE UP FOR A VOTE ON JULY NINTH COMPROMISES ARE STILL POSSIBLE , POLITICAL CAPITAL IS KEY

Rogers, 6/26 /2008 (David, Senior Congressional Reporter for Politico.com, Tempers Flare Over Offshore Drilling,http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11375.html)

Tempers flared and the House Appropriations Committee abruptly adjourned Thursday morning after Republicanssought to hijack the meeting agenda and force a vote on their hottest new political issue: easing restrictions on offshoredrilling for oil and gas. California Rep. Jerry Lewis , the panels ranking Republican, said he was forced to spring thelegislative trap when he couldnt get a firm commitment from Democrats for a vote on the Interior Department budgetbill, which governs federal waters on the O uter Continental Shelf. But the ploy infuriated Chairman Dave Obey, whothreatened to shut down the entire appropriations process this summer and put the government on a stop spending bill after Oct.1. I think we probably had our last meeting for the year, and that this is going on a continuing resolution, said the WisconsinDemocrat. We only have six weeks left of the session , and if they are going to spend it in partisan wrangling and posturing,thats not a productive use of time. There are too many real things that Congress can do. Cooler heads may yet prevail andopposing staff were seeking one another out in the wake of the fray. But Lewis said he needed a real commitment to bring up theInterior bill , which has been delayed by the Democrats for fear of losing on the OCS issue given the public outcry over gasoline prices. Compromises are possible to peel back swing votes , but the whole environmental and energy debate is a

sensitive point for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and is now caught up in presidential politics leaving less room for Obeyto maneuver. Thus far, the committee has scheduled it for a vote July 9 after the upcoming Fourth of July recess, but Obeywas reluctant Thursday to make a public promise.


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OCS Internal Link Winners Win

WINNERS WIN THE PLAN BUILDS SUPPORT FOR OTHER ISSUES ON BUSHS AGENDA

Ornstein, 1993 (Norman, American Enterprise Institute, Roll Call, May 27)

Winning comes to those who look like winners. This only sounds redundant or cliche'-ish. If power is the ability to make people do something they otherwise would not do. Real power is having people do things they otherwise wouldn't do withoutanybody making them - when they act in anticipation of what they think somebody would want them to do. If a presidentdevelops a reputation as a winner. somebody who will pull out victories in Congress even when he is behind, somebodywho can say, "Do this!" and have it done, then Members of Congress will behave accordingly. They will want to cut theirdeals with the president early, getting on the winning team when it looks the best and means the most.


13/72

OCS Impact Ocean Ecosystems

OFFSHORE DRILLING CAUSES WATER POLLUTION , DECIMATING THE ENVIRONMENT

NRDC, 2001 (Natural Resources Defense Council, May 8, http://www.ems.org/energy_policy/offshore_drilling.html)

Water pollution: Drilling muds are used to lubricate drill bits, maintain downhole pressure and serve other functions. Drillcuttings are pieces of rock ground by the bit and brought up from the well along with used mud. Massive amounts of wastemuds and cuttings are generated by drilling operations - an average of 180,000 gallons per well. Most of this waste isdumped untreated into surrounding waters. Drilling muds contain toxic metals, including mercury, lead and cadmium.Significant concentrations of these metals have been observed around drilling sites. A second major polluting discharge is"produced water," the water brought up from a well along with oil and gas. The Minerals Management Service estimates thateach OCS platform discharges hundreds of thousands of gallons of produced water every day. Produced water typicallycontains a variety of toxic pollutants , including benzene, arsenic, lead, naphthalene, zinc and toluene, and can contain varyingamounts of radioactive pollutants. All major field research programs investigating the fate and effects of produced waterdischarges have detected petroleum hydrocarbons, toxic metals and radium in the water column downcurrent from thedischarge .

HEALTH OF OCEANS IS CRITICAL TO HUMAN SURVIVAL

O cean Foundation, No Date Given (http://www.oceanfdn.org/index.php?tg=articles&topics=32)

We are connected to the coast and ocean . Whether or not we are among the over 50% of the population who live within 50miles of the coast, we are all dependent on our coasts and ocean for our food, health , recreation and jobs. In the USA, morethan 180 million people visit the shore for recreation every year and tens of thousands of jobs in fishing, recreation, and tourismdepend on healthy, functioning coastal ecosystems. Planet Earth has one big beautiful ocean. This one ocean and humans areinextricably linked. The ocean covers 71% of our planet and its powerful waves and water energy shape the features of the land. The ocean provides us with many forms of recreation: fishing, diving, walking, surfing, paddling, beach bonfires,sailing, swimming and beachcombing. And, for millennia, our ocean has served as the natural superhighway for trade,transportation and communication. The health of the ocean is essential to human survival. The ocean is a major source of food, medicine, and jobs. Fish from the ocean currently are the primary source of protein for one in six people on earth. And,

nearly a million people in the US have jobs that directly depend on the ocean and that add $12 billion to our GDP. However,while the ocean supports the greatest diversity of life and ecosystems on our planet , it is largely unexplored. The ocean is amajor influence on weather and climate . In fact it is the ocean that makes our planet habitable. Without the ocean as a heatsink, our days would be unbearably hot, and our nights would be freezing cold. The ocean naturally recycles our waterand our air, constantly cleaning it for us to use over and again 24 hours a day, seven days a week. In fact, 86% of the water wedrink comes from the ocean; and the ocean produces more oxygen than the rainforests. It even absorbs 48% of the carbon thatwe humans put into the atmosphere. The ocean is the best protection we could hope for. We must be good stewards of this

part of our living world. The overarching threat to the ocean is of course climate change. We cannot stop climate change, but wecan reduce the amount by which the planet warms. Aside from the threat of climate change, the biggest direct threat to the oceanis overexploitation of its resources. The public has not yet caught up with these realities and 87% view pollution, and oil spills in

particular, as the most challenging threats to the ocean. The ocean touches everyone and everything. It is essential to life andhuman survival. We all have a strong, personal connection to the ocean (whether we realize it or not). Protecting the ocean

protects our health, our economy, and our childrens future.


14/72

OCS Impact Methane Hydrates Module

OCEAN DRILLING CAUSES METHANE HYDRATE RELEASE

Industries in Transition, 2002 (September, Lexis)

Ocean drilling plays a critical role in addressing questions about hydrates because it provides the only means available of directly sampling the material and the sediments that host them deep beneath the seafloor. In 1995, ODP researchers drilledinto gas hydrates in a relatively stable area off the U.S. East Coast. Scientists have estimated that area could contain enoughmethane to supply U.S. energy needs for more than 100 yr. They also found evidence suggesting that hydrates are involved inthe global climate cycle, and that they can cause massive landslides.

METHAN HYDRATE RELEASE WILL FRY THE PLANET CAUSING EXTINCTION

Inside Energy, 2001 (November 5)

'If we begin as a civilization to exploit methane hydrates , and use technology experimentally, we may destabilize methanehydrates and create a real big jump of methane hydrates release to the atmosphere,'' Charter said. ''If it could end the ice

age, what if it were induced by man on top of the current global warming change? ... We may not just say, 'oops, we endedthe ice age.' But , 'oops,' we fried the planet.' It's best to understand the implications before we go poking around the Earth.''


15/72

OCS Impact Methane Hydrates

METHANE HYDRATE RELEASE AMPLIFIES GLOBAL WARMING REJECT EVEN 1% RISK

Greenpeace, No Date Given (http://archive.greenpeace.org/~climate/database/records/zgpz0687.html)

Methane Hydrates Could Strongly Amplify Global Warming. One explanation of rapid climate change at the end of the lastglaciation, argues Dr Euan Nisbet of the University of Sakatchewan, is that it was initially driven by methane from natural gasfields and gas hydrates during a period of extreme insolation. Methane hydrates are solids which lock methane gas up underpressure in an ice-like lattice of water molecules. They are present under the oceans and permafrost in vast quantities. In theoffshore Arctic, the cold allows their formation at sufficiently shallow depths that warming can reach them and destabilize them.

Nisbet is one of a number of geologists who fear methane hydrates as a potentially major positive feedback. He wrote in a 1989 paper that "any slight warming of the Arctic water will release hydrate from the sea floor almost immediately. A temperaturechange of a few degrees will liberate methane from the uppermost sea-floor sediments at this depth within a few years." Theworst- case analysis is grim indeed: " the danger of a thermal runaway caused by methane release from permafrost is minor,

but real ...even if there is only a 1 per cent chance that such events will occur, the social implications are profound."

OCEAN RELEASE OF METHANE HYDRATES WILL AMPLIFY GLOBAL WARMING

Dietrich, 1997 (Bill, Seattle Times Science Reporter, February 18)

A similar discovery has been made on Blake Ridge off South Carolina. Scientists from the University of Carolina at Chapel Hilland the U.S. Geological Survey estimate Blake Ridge alone contains enough methane that, if tapped, could supply Americannatural gas needs for a century. Globally, there may be twice as much energy in methane hydrates as in all the oil, gas andcoal deposits of the world. With that promise comes the danger that if the ocean floor's methane is released to theatmosphere, it could create a runaway greenhouse effect and overheat the planet. That is an issue for future debate: Rightnow the technology to economically extract the methane ice does not exist.

EVEN A SINGLE METHANE HYDRATE RELEASE CAN CAUSE OCEAN DEVASTATION

McKie, 1999 (Robin, Science Editor, The Observer, November 7)

Deep ocean deposits are more difficult to get at, however, though engineers say new techniques they have developed to recover particularly dense, viscous deposits of petroleum, and which involve the pumping of steam down drill holes, could be used topump methane to the surface. And it is this prospect that has set alarm bells ringing for many researchers. Writing in thelatest issue of Scientific Amer1can, Professor Suess and his col-leagues point to evidence that explosive releases of methanefrom a single reser-voir may have had devastating effects, on Earth's climate in the past. For example, the Californianoceanographer James Kennett has argued that a methane release around 15,000 years ago brought an abrupt and rapid endto the last Ice Age.


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OCS Impact Oil Spills

OFFSHORE DRILLING ENSURES OIL SPILLS

NRDC, 2001 (Natural Resources Defense Council, May 8, http://www.ems.org/energy_policy/offshore_drilling.html)

Oil spills: According to statistics compiled by the Department of the Interior, some 3 million gallons of oil spilled from OCSoil and gas operations in 73 incidents between 1980 and 1999. Oil is extremely toxic to a wide variety of marine species,including marine birds, mammals and commercially important species of fish. Despite industry claims to the contrary, newtechnology has not alleviated these risks. For instance, in one incident in April of this year, more than 90,000 gallons of saltwater and crude oil spilled out of a pipeline in Alaska's North Slope, becoming the fourth major incident there in the last threeyears.

OCEAN OIL SPILLS CAUSES ECOSYSTEM DEVASTATION , SEA LEVEL RISE , AND KILLS PHYTOPLANKTON ESCALATING GLOBAL WARMING

Dempsey, 1984 (Paul Stephen, Denver University Professor of Law, Journal of International Law and Business, Summer, Lexis)

The ramifications of introducing such high concentrations of petroleum pollution into the oceans are severe. Oil pollution

disrupts phytoplankton, the microscopic plant life in the ocean that forms algae and serves an important function in theecosystem. First, oil interferes with phytoplankton photosynthesis . Such interference may eventually reduce the oxygenoutput and the carbon dioxide uptake of ocean. Moreover, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may cause a"greenhouse effect," such that heat will not be allowed to radiate into space, causing an increase in global temperatures. As along term effect, the ice caps could eventually melt, causing the sea level to increase up to 200 feet, submerging mostcoastal cities.


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OCS Impact AT: Drilling Decreases Oil Prices

OCS DRILLING WILL NOT DRASTICALLY INCREASE OIL SUPPLIES

NYT, 6/26 /2008(http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/26/business/26offshore.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin)

Republicans want to end the 27-year ban on offshore drilling along much of the nations coastline , while Democrats want toforce companies to speed up exploration in certain offshore areas that they already control. A version of the Democratic plan maycome to a vote in the House of Representatives as early as Thursday. But oil experts say that neither approach will givedrivers any relief in the short run from prices that stood Wednesday at nearly $4.07 a gallon, on average. They say the simplereality is that no one knows how much oil is to be found offshore, how difficult producing it would turn out to be or howmany years that might take. And oil companies, amid a global drilling frenzy, are stretched so thin they will be hard-pressed totake on big new projects anytime soon. More than 400 major drilling and production projects are competing for engineers, rigs,seismic equipment and steel to build platforms, and the costs of doing the work have skyrocketed.


18/72

1NC Elections DA

A.) UNIQUENESS : OBAMA WILL WIN THE ELECTION NOW

Gallup, 2008 (Americans Predict Obama Will Be Next U.S. President, http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx)

But when Gallup asked voters who they believe will win the White House in November, the Democratic senator fromIllinois has a clear advantage over his Republican Senate colleague from Arizona. As Gallup reports: Not only has Barack Obama recently opened a small lead over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the generalelection, but he leads McCain 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in November . Reporting today on theresults of a survey taken June 9-12, Gallup reports that "Democrats are slightly more confident that their presumptivenominee will prevail in November - 76 percent say Obama will win.'' Republicans are more bullish about McCain's chances-- 67 percent. " What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Obama is that, by a nine-percentagepoint margin, independents join Democrats in believing Obama is likely to win,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad writes.


19/72

1NC Elections DA

B.) LINK : MCCAIN WILL LOSE THE ELECTION UNLESS BUSH ADOPTS POPULAR POLICIES IN HIS SECOND TERM

Lichtman, 2005 (Allan J., Professor of History at American University and National Political Analyst, The Keys to the

Whitehouse: The Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, p. x through xi)

Retrospectively, the Keys account for the results of every presidential election from I860 through 1980. much longer thanany other prediction system Prospectively, the Keys predicted well ahead of time the popular-vote winners of every presidentialelection from 1984 through 2004. They called Vice President George H. W Bush's victory in the spring of 1988 when he trailedMike Dukakis by nearly twentv points in the polls and was being written off by the pundits The Vice President dehed the pollsand (he pundits, not because he discovered negative ads or refurbished his image, but because voters ratified the perfonnance of the Reagan administrationfour years of prosperity. the defusing of the Cold War. and a scandal that faded away. In 1992.George H. W. Bush lost his chance for a second term, as the Keys predicted, when a sour economy and a lack of domesticaccomplishment tarnished his record as president The Keys predicted President George W. Bush's 2004 re-election in Aprilof 2003. a year and a half before a contest that pollsters found too close to call right up to election eve. As a sitting

president with no prospective challenger in his own party or a serious third-party competitor. Bush's mixed record of accomplishment at home and abroad was sufficient to anticipate in his victory in 2004.' likewise, alttumgh President Bush will

not be on the ticket in 2008. the fate of his would-be successor in the Republican Party will depend upon the president'sperformance in his second term If the Bush administration fails to meet the domestic and foreign policy challenges of thenext four years, voters will dismiss the Republicans, regardless of the Democratic nominee Moreover, according to theKeys, the Democrats will have structural advantages in 2008 that they lacked in 2004. The Republicans will not he hclding asitting president, which results in the lovs of Key 3 and will likely confront a bruising battle for their party . nomination whichforfeits Key 2. Thus, two Keys that the GOP held in 2004 are in jeopardy for 2008. making a Democratic victory likely that year,despite the setbacks at the polls that Democrats have suffered thus far in the twenty-first century Democrats, moreover, need notworry about battling for their party's nomination, history shows that nomination struggles within the out-party do notsubvert its chances to recapture the While Home. A vigorous challenging party usually has multiple presidential contenders,each of whom professes to have the skills, personality, and policies needed to regain the While House. A spirited out-partycontest for the presidential nomination might even signify the vulnerability of the party in powrr. as candidates compete lor whatappears to be a promising nomination. The greatest popular vote victory by a challenging party candidate in American hisiorvwas achieved by Republican Warren (larding in 1920 after a deadlocked convention nominated him as a compromise candidaie

on the tenth ballot.

AND THE PLAN IS OVERWHELMINGLY POPULAR


20/72

1NC Elections DA

AND ENERGY POLICY IS THE CRITICAL ELECTION ISSUE

Morris, 2008 (R. Beschloss, Energy Policy Hinges on Election, Desert Sun)

With energy development rapidly becoming the presidential campaign's critical issue , there are several happenings bringing thecollision between the environmentalist partisans and the "Energy Now" protagonists to a rapid showdown. Thursday morning, the OPEC chief minister predictedcrude oil per barrel to rise to $170 later this summer. He also added that U.S. gasoline could rise to $6 per gallon. The crude oil target is $20 more than what I had

predicted at the first of the year, along with $125 per barrel by Memorial Day. The Obama campaign's position to forego drilling, in alignment with the "greens"is sending tremors throughout Canada. Our neighbors to the north are worried the "climactic change prevention" lobby will convince the Democratic president, if elected, to issue an executive order to prevent oil derived from tar sands to be cut off from further U.S.-bound delivery. This is due to the high level of CO2 andgreenhouse gases released by this all important energy component, making up an increasingly significant part of shipments from Canada, our No. 1 energysupplier. I had predicted this a month ago, when Canada demanded a release from the U.S. Defense Department, which had earmarked a substantial segment of the tar sand-derived oil, before shipment over the border. With Canada providing the single-most source of supply to alleviate the U.S. energy shortage, a halt tosuch deliveries would prove catastrophic. We are told that the Canadians are already contemplating alternative delivery targets in case Barack Obama is elected.It's becoming increasingly clearer that the winner of the Nov. 4 presidential election will also determine the nature of America's approach to energy survival for years to come.


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1NC Elections DA

C.) IMPACT :


22/72

Elections Uniqueness Obama Will Win

OBAMA WILL WIN THE ELECTION NOW

Associated Press, 7/2 /2008 (via http://www.courant.com/news/local/statewire/hc-02132231.apds.m0071.bc-ct-- polljul02,0,3297336.story)

Sen. John McCain's poor showing in a new Connecticut poll highlights challenges the Republican presidential contenderfaces in states where the Iraq war and President Bush are unpopular , a pollster said Wednesday. "There's a directcorrelation there. Bush is a huge drag on McCain," said Quinnipiac Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. The poll showsDemocrat Barack Obama leading McCain 56 percent to 35 percent. The Illinois senator has support from nearly everysubgroup of voters except Republicans, topping McCain among younger and older voters, people with and without collegedegrees, men, women, blacks and whites. Obama also wins 70 percent of those likely voters who disapprove of the jobthat Bush is doing. And in Connecticut, that number is huge - 78 percent of voters. McCain garners support from only 21

percent of those Bush critics. "That's just a huge hurdle for McCain to overcome. He's getting about 20 percent of those Bushdisapprovers and he's going to have to do so much better in order to be more competitive in states like Connecticut," Schwartzsaid. Obama wins big among voters who consider the war a top issue - 74 percent, compared to McCain's 35 percent. Sixty-seven percent of Connecticut voters believe going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing for the U.S. to do. Yet voters are almostevenly split on whether the U.S. should immediately withdraw troops on a certain date or keep troops in Iraq without a fixed datefor withdrawal. Obama doesn't appear to gain much from adding New York Sen. Hillary Clinton to his ticket. Only 35 percent of

likely voters said they would like Clinton to be Obama's running mate. Only 18 percent said they'd be more likely to vote for Obama is he chose her, 25 percent said less likely and 55 percent said it wouldn't make a difference. McCain wouldn't benefitfrom picking Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., as his running mate. Only 14 percent said they'd be more likely to vote for McCain if Lieberman is on the ticket; 32 percent said they'd be less likely and 52 percent said it doesn't make a difference.

OBAMA WILL WIN NOW AND ENERGY POLICY IS THE CRITICAL ELECTION ISSUE

Times, 6/18 /2008 (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4159793.ece)

A Washington Post/ABC poll yesterday showed 80 per cent of voters say petrol prices are causing them hardship, while theissue is now ranked as more important than terrorism, education, taxes and family values. Mr Obama leads Mr McCain by48 to 42 per cent , similar to the margin enjoyed by John Kerry over President Bush at the same stage four years ago before his

eventual defeat in the general election. The Democratic nominee currently holds double digit leads on the economy, petrolprices and energy policy.

OBAMA IS AHEAD OF MCCAIN NOW , DESPITE ATTACKS ON OBAMA S PATRIOTISM

Newsmax, 7/2 /2008 (http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/mccain_obama_cnn_poll/2008/07/02/109270.html)

The survey , conducted June 26-29, shows Obama holding a mere five-point lead over his rival, McCain , 50 percent to 45percent. The race for the White House, however, grows even tighter when the two most prominent third-party candidates areweighed into the equation. When votes polled for Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr (3 percent) and Independent Partycandidate Ralph Nader (6 percent) are added to the mix, Obamas lead shrinks to just 3 percentage points (46 percent to 43

percent), which pollsters considered a virtual dead heat when taking into consideration margin of error. A survey conducted by

CNN just a month ago showed similar poll results. Obama , at that time, led McCain by the same scant 46 percent to 43percent margin. The latest CNN/ORC survey also shows some voters still have lingering questions about Obama's patriotism about 25 percent. The breakdown of those polled who show concern over Obamas devotion to America is 10 percent of Democrats, 29 percent of independents, and 40 percent of Republicans. "Strategically speaking, the question is not how manypeople consider Obama unpatriotic, it's how many people consider Obama unpatriotic who would have voted for himotherwise," CNN polling director Keating Holland points out. "Most of the respondents who think Obama is unpatriotic areRepublicans," Holland notes. "That indicates that Obama may not have lost a lot of votes so far on this matter."


23/72


OBAMA WILL WIN NOW HE CONTROLS THE HISPANIC VOTE

AFP, 7/2 /2008 (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5idkmRCyHmmRz4ZaWL1HmgmxZszsg)

Democrat Barack Obama has a dominant lead over Republican John McCain among Hispanic voters , despite his struggle towoo the key bloc during his presidential primary campaign , a poll found Wednesday . A Gallup survey put Obama up 59percent to 29 percent over his rival among registered Hispanic voters across the United States. The community will likelyplay a pivotal role in general election swing states like Colorado, New Mexico and Florida. The poll was published asMcCain made a three-day trip through Colombia and Mexico, designed to burnish his foreign policy credentials, which was alsoseen as an attempt to win favor among Hispanic voters in the United States. The poll appears to indicate that many Hispanicvoters have shifted their support to Obama from his vanquished Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, who built a Latino

powerbase during the fiercely contested nominating contest. In nationwide "Super Tuesday" primary contests in February for instance, Clinton won the Latino vote by around two-to-one over Obama, according to exit polls. Gallup said that support for Obama was consistent across demographic groups in the Hispanic community. Only 18 percent of the survey sample identifiedthemselves as Republicans. McCain's hopes of attracting a strong vote from Hispanics were hampered by the failure of acomprehensive immigration reform bill in Congress last year, which he supported, despite the risk of alienating conservativeRepublicans.

OBAMA WILL WIN THE ELECTION NOW

Usborne, 2008 (David, Reporter for the Independent World, Murdoh Says Rock Star Obama Will Win Election, IndependentWorld)

"He is a rock star," said Mr Murdoch. "I love what he is saying about education. I think he will win and I am anxious to meethim." Recalling a surprising loss of a safe Republican seat in a Mississippi by-election recently, Mr Murdoch suggestedNovember may see a Democrat landslide. "You have probably the making of complete phenomenon in this country," henoted. John McCain , he said, goes into the election with "lots of problems". Mr Obama is tantalisingly close to seizing theDemocratic nomination. Only three more primary votes remain Puerto Rico on Sunday, followed by Montana and SouthDakota on Tuesday. A potential bump on the road is a meeting tomorrow of the party's rules committee which will consider

proposals to reinstate votes cast in Florida and Michigan that were disqualified because both states voted too early. Mr Murdochcalled Mr McCain, the Republican nominee, a "friend of mine" but was unexpectedly harsh in his assessment of him. "He's beenin Congress a long time, and you have to make a lot of compromises. I think he has a lot of problems." He added Mr McCain"doesn't know much about the economy". While he was a "patriot", "he doesn't know much about organising a campaign, itwould seem". Not everyone will be surprised by Mr Murdoch's comments. Earlier this year, his newspaper The New York Postendorsed Mr Obama over Hillary Clinton on the eve of New York's primary election, even though Mr Murdoch had previouslyappeared to have courted both the former first lady and her husband Bill Clinton. He admitted in California that he had beeninvolved in the newspaper's nod for Mr Obama. He predicted that the deteriorating economy will aid Mr Obama's bid. "Theaverage American is really getting hurt financially and that all bodes well for him," he said. And while he said the race issuewould be a challenge, "it looks like he will overcome that totally".


24/72


MCCAIN WILL LOSE TO OBAMA NOW BECAUSE OF BUSHS UNPOPULARITY

MSNBC News, 2008

Yes, Jeremiah Wright could be a high liability for Obama if he becomes the nominee. Sure, questions about Clintons honestyand trustworthiness could also hurt her in a general election, as well as Bill Clintons return to the White House. But accordingto the latest NBC/WSJ poll, the biggest political albatross heading into November is drum roll, please George Bush. Inthe poll, 43% say McCain being too closely aligned to Bush and his policies is a major concern . Thats compared with 36%who say that about Clintons apparent flip-flops; 34% who say that about Obamas bitter guns-religion remark; 32% who say thatabout Wright and Bill Ayers; 31% who say that about Clintons honesty and trustworthiness; 27% who say that about Bill Clintonhaving too much influence on policy decisions; 17% who say that about Obama not being patriotic enough; and 16% whobelieve McCain might be too old. When you add that Bush problem to other macro-political trends just 27% approve of Bushs job (his lowest mark ever in a survey), just 15% think the country is on the right track, 81% believe the country isin a recession thats quite a head wind McCain and the Republicans are facing. So while the political world might beat theWright issue to death or parse every little thing Bill says , lets not forget overall dynamics of this presidential election.


25/72

Elections Internal Link Bush Popularity Key

MCCAIN HAS NO CHANCE OF WINNING THE ELECTION AS LONG AS BUSH CONTINUES TO ENACT UNPOPULAR POLICIES

Jackson Sun, 2007 (October 7, Lexis)

Republicans will lose the 2008 race for president . I suspect they also will lose additional seats in Congress. They will not lose because they are conservative. They will not lose because the Republican Revolution is dead, though it is. They will lose becausethey allowed their party to fall under the control of extremists. They will lose because the Republican Revolution, one of the alltime great marketing schemes, didn't deliver what it promised. They will lose because they allowed their party to become the

pulpit of the religious right. They will lose because they lost touch with middle America . Presidential elections are won or lostin the middle. Congressional elections can be subject to this rule because of guilt by association. Staunch Bush supporters inCongress will not just be fighting for their seats in 2008, they will be fighting with the boat anchor of the Bush legacy in tow.By the end of the Clinton years, political scandal, extreme liberalism and the irresponsible behavior of the president doomedDemocrats. That scenario is about to play out for Republicans in 2008. Even with the next election hanging over theRepublican Party like a guillotine blade, President Bush continues to charge ahead with unpopular, illogical andpolitically incorrect decisions. Republicans who must run for election next year must wake up with a headache eachmorning; part hangover from what Bush did yesterday and part worry about what he might do today to make their racemore difficult.

BUSH S POPULARITY IS CRITICAL TO THE GOPS CHANCES IN 2008

Hugick, 2007 (Larry, The Political Fallout: Bush, Iraq, and the GOP, Public Opinion Pros,http://www.publicopinionpros.com/features/2007/sep/hugick.asp)

George W. Bush is barred from seeking a third term , and his vice president is also not a candidate in the 2008 presidentialrace. But the impact of growing public discontent with the situation in Iraq and Bushs record low approval ratings castsa long shadow over the Republicans ability to keep the White House in 2008 , after having already lost control of bothhouses of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections. In all three previous cases where a president scored an approval ratingbelow 30 percent on more than one occasion, his party was soundly defeated in the next major election . Jimmy Carter, whohad first to fend off a challenge by Ted Kennedy for his partys 1980 presidential nomination, ultimately got only 41 percent of

the popular vote in losing his bid for reelection to Ronald Reagan. After Richard Nixons resignation in the summer of 1974removed him from the national stage, the GOP nonetheless lost forty-eight house seats in the fall congressional elections,allowing the Democrats to control two-thirds of house seats. In the 1952 presidential election, with the Korean conflict in astalemate and Trumans ratings consistently below 30 percent, Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson was defeated in alandslide, winning just 89 electoral votes to Republican Dwight Eisenhowers 442. An incumbent president is always viewedas the leader of his party and has a major influence on the way it is perceived. Peoples party identification tends to berelatively stable, but when a president is highly unpopular for an extended period of time, his partys image can suffer aswell. As seen in Table 2, based on Newsweek poll party ID averages, the proportion of Americans who call themselvesRepublicans dropped significantly between George W. Bushs first year in office and the current year. In 2001, 30 percent of Americans identified as Republican. Preliminary figures for 2007 put the number of self-identified Republicans at 25 percent, adrop of five percentage points. Since Princeton Survey Research Associates began conducting the Newsweek poll in 1993, therehave been fifty-seven quarters for which sufficient data were available to compute a party ID average. The first two quarters of 2007 are the only two in which GOP identification has averaged below 26 percent.


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Elections Internal Link Bush Popularity Key

BUSH POPULARITY IS THE KEY VARIABLE IN THE ELECTION

Columbus Post Dispatch, 2007 (October 14, Lexis)

Some Democrats believe that despite the deep disdain for Clinton among Republicans, the atmosphere is too poisoned for aGOP victory. "The election isn't going to be about Hillary or Rudy," said James Ruvolo, former chairman of the OhioDemocratic Party. "It's going to be about the last eight years, and Republicans can't get any independents to vote forthem."

BUSH POPULARITY KEY

Frontrunner, 2007 (September 4, Lexis)

Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online says, " A key challenge for" President George W. Bush is "that a president'slegacy is often heavily influenced by the partisan affiliation of his successor. Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and GeorgeH.W. Bush are all largely seen as failed presidents in no small part because their party lost the White House in their wake, which

is a crucial tool for shaping popular and historical perceptions." The "problem for Bush and the GOP is that it seems veryunlikely a Republican candidate will have any chance of winning in 2008 so long as Bush's approval ratings are in thefreezing range."

BUSH UNPOPULARITY MEANS GOP WILL LOSE NOW

USA Today, 2007 (http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2007/09/political-exit-.html)

A key challenge for Bush is that a president's legacy is often heavily influenced by the partisan affiliation of his successor.Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush are all largely seen as failed presidents in no small part becausetheir party lost the White House in their wake, which is a crucial tool for shaping popular and historical perceptions.Keeping the White House in the same partisan hands not only represents a referendum for continuity, it also prevents themore unsavory aspects of the previous administration from coming to light amid the inevitable blame-shifting that comeswith new administrations. President Reagan's historical standing was put on the glide path to greatness in part because hisanointed successor won the presidency. If Al Gore had won in 2000, Bill Clinton's legacy would certainly be higher (and it willalso improve if Hillary Clinton is elected). The problem for Bush and the GOP is that it seems very unlikely a Republicancandidate will have any chance of winning in 2008 so long as Bush's approval ratings are in the freezing range. As mycolleague Ramesh Ponnuru argues, Bush's approval ratings need to be at least in the mid-40s for the Republican nominee to havea fighting chance. But how to get those numbers up so late in his administration?


27/72

AT: McCain Distancing Himself From Bush

MCCAIN CANT DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM BUSH

Baltimore Sun, 7/2 /2008(http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/07/mccain_obama_compared_to_bush.html)

A new USA Today/Gallup poll reports two out of three Americans are concerned that McCain would pursue policies thatare too similar to what Bush has pursued. Forty-nine percent reported they are "very concerned." As the presumptiveRepublican nominee, McCain faces Bush's legacy and his low approval ratings. Bush's approval rating is 28 percentamong Americans. However, 60 percent of Republicans report approval of Bush, as well as 55 percent of McCain supporters.Among Democrats, his approval rating is at 6 percent. Continued"McCain does have enough disagreements with Bush to perhaps make the argument that he will not represent a thirdBush term seem credible. At the same time, on the major issues such as the economy and Iraq, McCain's and Bush'spositions are essentially the same."

BUSH S UNPOPULARITY TIES MCCAIN DOWN

Todd, 2008 (Chuck, MSNBC, June 12)

The 200-pound ball and chain : We hate to sound like a broken record, but just how bad is the political environment forMcCain and the Republican Party? Lets start with Bush, whose job approval rating is just 28%, up one point from his all-time low. Then add this: 54% say that theyre looking for a new president who would bring greater changes to currentpolicies, even if that person is less experienced and tested. By contrast, 42% say theyd rather have a more experienced andtested person become president, even if that means fewer changes to current policies. The 200-pound ball and chain aroundMcCains foot is George W. Bush, says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter D. Hart (D).


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Elections Internal Link Iraq Distraction Module

IRAQ IS A KEY ISSUE FOR VOTERS IT IS NOT PLAYING WELL FOR THE GOP AND THEY WILL LOSE THE ELECTION WITHOUT A DISTRACTION

IBD, 2007 (Investors Business Daily, December 18, Lexis)

The public is in a sour, anxious mood. That's likely to boost Democrats and undercut Republicans in 2008 , pollsters say.Concerns about the economy, health care and Iraq top almost all surveys , which also say the general public is favoring theDemocrats on those issues. At the same time, interest in issues that have helped Republicans in the past -- such as terrorism,crime and gay marriage -- is receding. The bottom line: While the election remains months away and will be greatly affected bythe eventual presidential nominees, polls show that it's the Democrats' race to lose at this point. Independents Favor Dems KarlynBowman, resident scholar for polling at the American Enterprise Institute, says the shift is clearest in polls that track which party voters identify with. Thenumbers were at parity in 2004 (45%-45%), according to Gallup. Today the Democrats have a 52%-36% lead. "It's because more independents have moved inthe Democrats' direction," Bowman said. "Starting in the 1950 s through the 1990 s, they were a very reliably Republican group. That's clearly changed." Theshift is based on a sense of economic gloom associated with the Bush administration and the former GOP congressional majority. A December Gallup poll foundthat 71% thought the economy was getting worse. That's up from 53% in January. The Pew Research Center's Oct. 31 study of voter concerns found that 79%cited the economy as a major issue, with health care and Iraq tied for second at 76%. The study found that concern over jobs actually had fallen since 2004, from76% to 71%. But concern over energy prices soared from 54% to 65% over the same period. "It's clearly high fuel and gas prices that are driving concern over the economy," Bowman said. The high fuel prices cause people to think inflation is on the rise, regardless of other indicators. Those fears are "an incredibly

powerful political indicator," she added. Carroll Doherty, associate director of research for Pew, says that while energy is a major part of the problem, economicanxiety is very "broad based." "There's the mortgage foreclosure crisis, the energy prices, continuing job concerns despite declines in the (poll) numbers on thatissue, and just fears of a general economic slowdown," Doherty said. The economy has even managed to supplant Iraq as the top issue, Doherty says. Pew alsofound that terrorism was rated as a top issue by 69%, down from 77% in 2004. Concerns over social issues like abortion, stem cell policy and gay marriage werenear the bottom of the list. While 47% rated abortion as a top issue in 2004, only 39% do now. Stem cell research fell from 43% in 2004 to 35% today. Gaymarriage declined from the top issue at 32% to only 22%. Those drops don't always mean opinions have changed. Rather, it means voters just aren't thinking of them at the moment. "There hasn't been much of a shift in attitudes on gay marriage," Doherty said. "It's just that it's out of the headlines." A DecemberGallup poll, which required voters to rank issues in order of importance, found that Iraq (37%), the economy (17%) andhealth care (15%) were the top issues overall . Those answers differed greatly when broken down to Republican, Democrat andIndependent voters. Republican concerns don't move others nearly as strongly. That portends trouble for the eventualGOP nominee. For Republicans, Iraq was the top concern (29%), with immigration and terrorism tied for second (17% each).The economy was fourth (13%). Other polls put terr

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