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Agricultural Mechanization: Its Role in the Development of Civilization Part 1- Agricultural Mechanization: a Success Story of Mankind Part 2- Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare CLUB of BOLOGNA 25 th Annual Meeting of the Club of Bologna November 15-16, 2014 Bologna – EIMA International 2014 Luigi Bodria – [email protected] K.T Renius – [email protected]

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Page 1: Agricultural Mechanization: Its Role in the Development … · Agricultural Mechanization: Its Role in the ... Middle Age 350 1 : 4 - Agricultural Revolution ‘⏝⏖⏖ ... Innovation

Agricultural Mechanization: Its Role in the Development of Civilization

Part 1- Agricultural Mechanization: a Success Story of Mankind Part 2- Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

CLUB of BOLOGNA

25th Annual Meeting of the Club of Bologna November 15-16, 2014

Bologna – EIMA International 2014

Luigi Bodria – [email protected] K.T Renius – [email protected]

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CLUB of BOLOGNA

25th Annual Meeting of the Club of Bologna November 15-16, 2014

Bologna – EIMA International 2014

Luigi Bodria - [email protected]

Part 1 Agricultural Mechanization: a

Success Story of Mankind

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Basic Development Paradigm

Agriculture → Food

Food → People

Agricultural Tools → Food Surplus

Food Surplus → People Free for Development

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Agricultural Mechanization

The oldest technologies in the world = mother of future innovation

Still essential (or crucial?) for human survival and development

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Population growth is closely linked to agricultural yield

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Main steps of human development are linked to the increased efficiency of agricultural processes

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

Population (106)

Seed Efficiency

Labour requirement (man-our/ha)

Classical Age 200 1 : 2 -

Middle Age 350 1 : 4 -

Agricultural Revolution ‘700

600 1 : 7 1000

1950 2500 1 : 15 500

2000 6000 1 : 50 6-9

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Innovation in the Neolithic Revolution

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

• Population: 1 - 200 (106)

• Growth rate: 20,000 (people/y)

• Seeding efficiency: 1:2

Neolithic Revolution 10,000 – 1 BC

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Innovation in the Middle Age

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

• Handcraft and iron working • Improved plough • Improved animal traction • Water and windmill

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Middle Age 1300 AC

• Population: 350 (106)

• Growth rate: 200,000 (people/y)

• Seeding efficiency: 1:4

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Innovation in the Agricultural Revolution

•Better land management

•Improved crop and breeding system

•Agricultural tool become ag. machinery

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Agricultural Revolution 1700

• Population: 600 (106)

• Growth rate: 4,000,000 (people/y)

• Seeding efficiency: 1: 7

• Labour efficiency: 1000 (man-hour/ha)

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Industrial Revolution 1800-1950

• Population: 2500 (106)

• Growth rate: 43,000,000 (people/y)

• Seeding efficiency: 1: 15

• Labour efficiency: 50 (man-hour/ha)

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Global average yields of major cereals, 1961-2009

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

Undernourished in developing countries declined from over 30% to 15% in 45 years

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2014 Combine Harvesting World Record Lincolnshire, 15 August 2014

• Total time: 8 hours

• Average yield: 9.95 t/ha

• Harvesting flow: 90.7 t/h

• Fuel consumpion; 1.12 dm3/t

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In fifty years the fuel consumption per ton of wheat harvested is reduced to one third

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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Millennium challenges

•Sustainability of intensive production

•Food self-sufficiency for less developed counties

25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

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CLUB of BOLOGNA

25th Annual Meeting of the Club of Bologna November 15-16, 2014

Bologna – EIMA International 2014

[email protected]

Part 2 Agricultural Mechanization:

a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

1. The classical role: mechanization of plant and animal production, storage and processing in order to feed the planet

2. The recently added environmental role: mechanization of raw material and energy production & landscape maintenance in order to safeguard the planet and its resources

3. The strategic role: mechanization of agriculture to increase labour productivity in order to develop welfare of complete national economies

Three global roles of agricultural mechanization

Renius 2008: key note celebrating 50 years of agricultural engineering within VDI

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Item 1 and 2:

Agricultural mechanization addresses

a) Land productivity

b) Labour productivity

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

a) Land productivity: Ag mechanization is one among several important factors:

Breading Fertilizing Irrigation

Plant protection Post harvesting methods Mechanization

80% plant production increase expected for 2050. Estimated population growth is „only“ ~30% , but additionally expected is a progressiv increase of animal, energy and raw material production!

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

b) Labour productivity: Ag mechanization is the by far the dominating factor :

Milking machine …....... factor (Renius 2008) 15 Two horses ploughing ….………..…..…..... 25 Small tractor ploughing ….……..……..….... 50 Multi purpose tractor mowing ………....…. 500 Large tractor ploughing …………............ 1000 Large combine ………………….........….. 4000

Objective: To reduce labour input, secure low food prices

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Brasil 31 Combines, followed by 12 direct-seeders

Working power equal to about 100.000 hand workers … with reduced losses and rather better working quality

Source: Club of Bologna 2009 - E. Ch. Mantovani / Brasil

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius)

GDP and

% working

people in

agriculture

Source: Bodria/FAO

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Source: Fourastié 1963, Renius 2008

Three sector model: the case of USA

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

a high level of poverty a low level of infrastructure high illiteracy low expectation of life low drinking water availability high infant mortality often: low interest of investors

The three sector model and the global future:

A low level in agricultural mechanization usually means

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

The majority of the nations of this globe still needs a considerably higher level in agricultural mechanization.

How to realize?

An important general condition is Political stability and internal peace.

What can be done in ag engineering?

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Globally planned tractor & machinery save costs for the industry and thus enables adequate prices for the farmer.

But :

How to meet the extremely wide span of demanded machinery specifications from „very simple“ to „high sophisticated?“

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

FORDSON F – 50% world market share around 1925, (Source: Renius farm)

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Source: Renius 1999, CIGR Handbook III, chapter “Tractors: Two Axle Tractors”

Technology levels – a first step 1999

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Technology levels – example complete tractor (2002)

Renius 2002: Global tractor development: Product families and technology levels . 30. Symposium Actual Tasks on Agricultural Engineering, Opatiya 12.-15.03.2002

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Technology transfer: licences for blue prints Technology transfer: ISO standards Technology transfer: intern. co-operation Technology transfer: intern. publications Technology transfer: patents being expired Building up national ag engineering societies Improved national engineering education

Low tech machinery projects in de-veloping countries can benefit by

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Productivity Product quality Traceability Sustainability

Upper technology levels: IT penetration benefits all important areas of farming:

Environment Energy efficiency Safety and comfort Farm management

See also Part I - Bodria

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare

Automation in agriculture is based on the

cybernetic principle of “closed loop control”

Regulator Process Sensor

Disturbing factors

Feed back

Set value Output

(Maxwell 1867, ……….…….. , Isidori Club of Bologna 2012)

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25th Annual Meeting – November 15-16, 2014 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

Integrated farming: Vision Auernhammer-Schueller 1999

Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare