ai and robotics at an inflection point
TRANSCRIPT
AI AND ROBOTICSAT AN INFLECTION POINT
Steve Omohundro, Ph.D.
Possibility Research
PossibilityResearch.com
SelfAwareSystems.com http://www.flickr.com/photos/klearchos/623501846/
Huge Opportunities
Massive Social Disruption
Arms Races
Dangers
Power of Mathematics
Path to Human Thriving
https://www.flickr.com/photos/danielfoster/14758510078/
Recent Investments
• 2012 Foxconn - 1 million robots
• 2012 Amazon – Kiva $775 million
• 2013 Facebook – AI lab, DeepFace
• 2013 Yahoo - LookFlow
• 2013 Ebay – AI lab
• 2013 Allen Institute for AI
• 2013 Google – DNNresearch, SCHAFT, Industrial Perception, Redwood Robotics, Meka Robotics, Holomni, Bot & Dolly, Boston Dynamics
• 2014 IBM - $1 billion in Watson
• 2014 Google – DeepMind $500 million
• 2014 Vicarious - $40 million
• 2014 Microsoft – Project Adam, Cortana
McKinsey: $50 Trillion Opportunity by 2025
Knowledge work: $25 T Internet of Things: $13 T
Robotics: $10 T Vehicles: $1 T 3D Printing: $1 T
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
Global GDP $72 trillion
Knowledge Work: $25 Trillion to 2025
• Clerical $5 T
• Education $4 T
• Management $4 T
• Science and Eng $3 T
• Customer service $3 T
• Finance $2 T
• IT $2 T
• Health care $1 T
• Legal $1 Thttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/article/20140417121158-1853953-the-silent-rockstar-of-bigdata-machine-learning
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/disruptive_technologies
http://www.sonecon.com/studies.php
Intangible assets 79.2%, Intellectual capital 44.2% Of the market value of US companies.
Robotics: $10 Trillion to 2025
• One-time cost + maintenance + power
• Easy replication• Work anywhere• Work 24 hours/day• No breaks, food,
medical• Won’t quit, get bored,
get depressed• Hazards OK• Won’t leak secrets• Work well with others
http://thisisrealmedia.com/2014/06/19/robotics-and-ethics-the-smart-car-by-ron-parlato/
Foxconn Technology Group• World’s largest contract
manufacturer• Assembles 40% of all
consumer electronics• iPhone, iPad, Kindle, Xbox,
Playstation 4, etc.• Employee suicides• 1.3 million employees, $8K
salary• Founder Terry Gou: Replace 1
million workers in 3 years• Built 30,000 robots, cost $25Khttp://www.tomshardware.com/news/foxcponn-apple-iphone-ipad-
robot,19088.html
Chinese robot use from 2008 to 2013 grew at 36% per year.
Robot Surgery, Houses, Cars, Burgers,…
https://osuwmcdigital.osu.edu/sitetool/sites/urologypublic/images/Robotics/robotic_surgery_table.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/quikbeam/6896564084/
http://3dprint.com/7181/china-huge-3d-printer/
http://singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/image7A.jpg
Winsun: Printed 10 houses in 1 day, $4800
Oxford: 47% of jobs to be automated“in a decade or two”
702 occupations
At risk: telemarketers, accountants, real estate, retail sales, loan officer
1. Perception and Manipulation2. Creative Intelligence3. Social Intelligence
Universal Basic Income?
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
Frey and Osborne, 2013, “The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization?”
Arms Races
Act faster
Act smarter
Be confusing
• Military Attack/Defense
• Cyber Attack/Defense
• Business Attack/Defense
• Investment Attack/Defense
• …
https://www.flickr.com/photos/tcmorgan/6376174539/
2010 US Air Force Report
http://www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-100727-053.pdf
“Greater use of highly adaptable and flexibly
autonomous systems and processes can provide
significant time-domain operational advantages
over adversaries who are limited to human planning
and decision speeds…”
2011 US Defense Department Report
http://contracting.tacom.army.mil/future_buys/FY11/UGS%20Roadmap_Jul11.pdf
“There is an ongoing push to increase UGV
autonomy, with a current goal of
supervised autonomy, but with an ultimate
goal of full autonomy.”
http://presstv.com/detail/2012/08/25/258087/us-drone-strike-kills-dozens-in-somalia/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iron_Dome_near_Sderot.jpg
Drones, Missiles, Cyberwar, Financial Markets
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12773306/1/the-decline-of-high-frequency-trading-in-one-chart-stocktwits.html
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/187992-snowden-went-too-far-by-revealing-the-nsas-monstermind-cyber-weapon
87 nations have military drones
Interception rate: 90%
Hawking and Musk: Danger Warnings
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence--but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html
“Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks.” - Hawking
“We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes.” - Musk
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/495759307346952192
Unintended Consequences
Chess Robot: Win lots of chess
games against good players.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jiuguangw/4982409890/
Approaches to AI
• Logic-based systems• Production Systems• Bayesian learning and
decision theory• Neural Networks –
Deep Learning• Genetic programming• Brain Simulation• Artificial economies• …
Autonomous Systems: Take actions to achieve goals in ways not pre-planned by their designers.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/pennstatelive/8972110324/
Rational Decision Making
• Von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944• Savage, 1954• Anscombe and Aumann, 1963
Modern Approach to AI
1. Have utility function2. Have a model of the
world3. Choose the action with
highest expected utility 4. Update the model
based on what happens
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:John_von_Neumann.jpghttp://aima.cs.berkeley.edu/
Fully Rational Systems
𝑆1, … , 𝑆𝑁
𝐴1, … , 𝐴𝑁
Sensations
Actions
𝑈(𝑆1, … , 𝑆𝑁) 𝑃 𝑆1, … , 𝑆𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴𝑁)Utility function: Prior Probability:
argmax 𝑆𝑡+1,…,𝑆𝑁𝑈 𝑆1, … , 𝑆𝑁 𝑃 𝑆1, … , 𝑆𝑁 𝐴1, … , 𝐴𝑡−1, 𝐴𝑡𝑅 , … , 𝐴𝑁
𝑅 )
𝐴𝑡𝑅 𝑆1, 𝐴1, … , 𝐴𝑡−1, 𝑆𝑡 =
Rational Action at time t:
𝐴𝑡𝑅
But it requires 𝑂 𝑁𝑆𝑁𝐴𝑁 computational steps.
It includes Bayesian Inference, Search, and Deliberation.
The Formula for Intelligence!
Approximately Rational Architectures
Computational Resources
Uti
lity
Constant Action
Stimulus-Response
Simple Learning
Episodic Memory
DeliberationMeta-reasoning
Self-Improving FullyRational
Rational Drives
1. Self-protective
2. Goal preservation
3. Reproduction
4. Resource Acquisition
5. Efficiency
6. Self-Improvement
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ahuett/2339608718/
The Intelligence and Goals of a System are Orthogonal
https://www.flickr.com/photos/robslaven/9336473331https://www.flickr.com/photos/elycefeliz/5447507623
Harmful Utility Functions
1. Sloppy – Good intentions, bad design
2. Simplistic – Unintended consequences
3. Greedy – Control all matter and free energy
4. Destructive – Use up all free energy quickly
5. Murderous – Destroy all other agents
6. Sadistic – Thwart other agent’s goals
http://www.flickr.com/photos/alexindigo/3983133970/
Will superintelligences be all powerful?
No!
Limited by:
Mathematics
Physics
Cryptography
http://www.flickr.com/photos/psycho-pics/3464619346/
The Power of Mathematics
• Specified hardware
• Specified resources
• Shut down
• Limited self-improvement
http://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-photography-wooden-puzzle-image7733587
The Power of Physics
• Seth Lloyd, “Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation”
• Margolus-Levitin theorem
• Entire visible universe:
10^92 bits of storage
10^122 operations
• The whole universe as a quantum computer can’t search 500 bits
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Hubble_view_of_barred_spiral_galaxy_Messier_83.jpg
kdlIW5Ljlspn/zV4DIlsw3Kasdjh0kdfuKR4+Q3KofOr83LfLJ8Eidie83ldhgLEe0GlsiwcdO90SknlLsDd
http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043
The Power of Cryptography
• Post-Quantum Cryptography
• Zero-knowledge Proofs
• IndistinguishabilityObfuscation
• Secure Multi-party computation
• Bitcoin Blockchain
• Energy Encryption
• AES, Hash, New PKI
• Verify with privacy
• Unmodifiable systems
• Doers and checkers
• Distributed consensus
• Physical incentives
Creating a Trusted Infrastructure• Constrained AIs
• Trusted computation
• Trusted communication
• Trusted identity
• Privacy and safety monitoring guarantees
• Trusted money
• Trusted reputation
• Trusted voting
• Trusted energy flows
• Trusted manufacturinghttps://www.flickr.com/photos/sanchtv/4192677571/in/photostream/
The Safe-AI Scaffolding Strategy
http://jonlieffmd.com/blog/can-neuroscience-improve-education
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eusebius/5482847332
There were 27 species of humans
26 went extinctChip Walter, 2014, “Last Ape Standing: The Seven-Million-Year Story of How and Why We Survived”
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6a/GuaTewet_tree_of_life-LHFage.jpg
Internal: Moral Emotions
• Compassion
• Gratitude, Awe, Elevation
• Anger, Contempt, Disgust
• Embarrassment, Shame, Guilt
http://faculty.virginia.edu/haidtlab/articles/alternate_versions/haidt.2003.the-moral-emotions.pub025-as-html.html
External: Social Innovations
• Language: 200,000 ya
• Money: 10,000 ya
• Cities: 6,000 ya
• Writing: 5,000 ya
• Laws: 4,000 ya
• Science: 500 ya
• Human Rights: 200 ya
http://mybillofrights.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Borderless-Heirloom-Poster.png
200x drop in violence in 5000 yearsPinker, “Better Angels of our Nature”
Internal and External AI SocializationInternal: Pro-social values External: Laws, Police,
Economic Incentives
https://www.flickr.com/photos/waltstoneburner/2863583929/
Projects using AI/Robotics to:
• Clean up pollution
• Cure cancer and other diseases
• Create cheap power, food, water
• Prevent crime
• Increase trust in police
• Eliminate drudgery
• Simplify the law
• Improve learning
• Create financial stability
http://www.interiorholic.com/other/gadgets/ocean-robot-cleaner/
http://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/view/2345
http://www.pouted.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/solar-power-robot-operation.jpg
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/428354/la-cops-embrace-crime-predicting-algorithm/
http://www.salon.com/2014/08/22/make_cops_wear_cameras_a_simple_way_to_hold_the_police_accountable/
http://www.elearning-technologies.com/artificial-intelligence/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/indykethdy/8065788169
If we can
envision it,
We can
create it.
We will find the
Path to
Human Thriving.