amm aerospace materials conference. pittsburgh, pa. airbus … · 2012-04-27 · airbus market...
TRANSCRIPT
Airbus market update and 20 year forecast
PR1206581_v1
Simon F. Pickup
Director - Business Operations, Airbus Americas
AMM Aerospace Materials Conference. Pittsburgh, PA.
2011 was a record year for Airbus
To December 31st, 2011
Airbus record
Airbus deliveries 534
Industry records
Airbus orders 1,608 gross
1,419 net
Airbus year-end backlog 4,437 aircraft
Sales of a new model 1,226 A320neo
Airbus and Boeing orders over the last 15 years
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Airbus
Boeing
Gross units
Both Airbus and Boeing have seen significant backlog growth since 2005. 2011 saw the industry sales record broken by Airbus.
2011 saw combined deliveries of over 1,000 units
Airbus 2011 deliveries: 534 units. 2012 target: 570 units. (+7%)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
AirbusBoeing
Units
Airbus deliveries over the last 15 years
Airbus’ measured production rate increases have obviated the need for drastic output changes
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Asian Crisis
9/11 Attack SARS
Global Financial Crisis
The Airbus and Boeing combined backlog stands at almost 8,400 units
Airbus 4,491 units
Boeing 3,881 units
Airbus’ backlog represents around 7 years of production
46% 54%
End January 2012
2,477 70
373 865 96
737: 767: 777: 787: 747-8:
A320:
A330/A340:
A350XWB:
A380:
3,406
345
555
185
Airbus backlog by geographical region
Airbus’ backlog is well balanced by region
North America
493 aircraft
11%
Asia-Pacific
1,642 aircraft
37%
Latin America
315 aircraft
7%
Europe
526 aircraft
12%
Middle East
456 aircraft
11%
Lessors
895 aircraft
19%
Africa
78 aircraft
2%
Corporate, Military
32 aircraft
1%
At December 31st, 2011
Current and planned monthly production rates
40 42 per month
A320 Family
10 per month A350XWB
Family
3 3.5 per month A380
A330 Family
9 10 per month
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks
Gulf Crisis Oil Crisis
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) Asian Crisis 9/11 Oil Crisis SARS Recession
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
+ 45%
growth
45% growth from 2000 to 2010
2011 saw impressive passenger traffic growth
2011
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Record high oil price throughout the year (US$95 for WTI and US$110 for Brent)
MENA unrest
Japanese earthquake
Eurozone debt crisis
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
5
5.25
2010 2011
+5.8%
World annual passenger traffic (RPKs - trillions)
Despite major external
shocks throughout the
year, world passenger
traffic grew 5.8% in 2011
Outlook for 2012, according to IATA
“While we have seen some improvements in
economic prospects, any further significant rise in
fuel price will almost certainly turn weak profits into
losses,"
Tony Tyler, IATA Director General,
March 2012.
IATA’s current global
forecast:
2012 net industry
profit: $3 Billion
Top performing
regions: Asia-Pacific,
North America and
Middle East
Jet fuel price volatility
Source: US Energy Information Administration, US Gulf Coast Jet Fuel Spot Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
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4
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12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Air travel remains a robust growth market
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.8% ICAO
total traffic
Airbus
GMF 2011
Air traffic has doubled
every 15 years
Traffic will
double again
in the next 15
years
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20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freighter aircraft
Market value of $3.5 trillion Source: Airbus GMF
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
1,680 very large aircraft
6,920 twin-aisle aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
The in-service passenger fleet will more than double in size by 2030
Fleet size (units)
15,002
Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)
31,424
26,900
2011 2030
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Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions
Population growth, urbanization and economic prosperity will all drive air travel demand in the developing regions
China
India
Middle East
Asia
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Eastern Europe Exp
an
din
g r
eg
ion
s
Western Europe
North America
Japan
1 billion people 2011
6 billion
people 2011
Yearly RPK growth
2011 -2030
“Global middle class” expected to rise to 4.9 billion people by 2030
In 2030, two thirds of the global middle class will be in Asia-Pacific Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus
* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Millions of people
664 703 680
338 333 322
525
1,740
3,228
318
473
654
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Other
Asia-Pacific
North America
Europe
1,845
6,900
3,249
7,600
4,884
8,300 World pop. (M)
X 6
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030
2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic
World Traffic by airline domicile (RPK billions)
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33%
23%
20%
11%
6%
4%
3%
% of 2030
world RPK
Asia-Pacific to take one third of deliveries North America and Europe take 22 percent each
Asia-Pacific
34%
Europe 22%
North America
22%
Latin America
8%
Middle East 7%
Africa 4%
CIS 3%
26,921 passenger aircraft delivery demand
Forecast deliveries (units)
Asia-Pacific: 9,160
Europe: 5,950
North America: 5,901
of which:
USA: 5,389
P.R. China: 4,041
Significant replacement market
4,500 aircraft to be replaced by a more eco-efficient generation Source: Ascend and Airbus GMF, for end 2010 in-service fleets
Old : A300B, 707, 727, 737-100/200, 747-100/200,
Mid: A300-600/A310, 737-300/400/500, 747-300, 757, 767, F100, MD11, MD90/90
New: A320, A300/A340, A380, 717, 737NG, 747-400, 777, ERJ190
North America 1,657 Old and mid generation
aircraft in service
41%
Latin America 226 Old and mid generation
aircraft in service
33%
Europe 1,070 Old and mid
generation
aircraft in service
25%
Africa &
Middle East 802 Old and mid generation
aircraft in service
37%
Asia-Pacific 745 Old and mid generation
aircraft in service
21%
A320 Family
A320 Family – best selling single aisle family Data to end March 2012
8,380 firm orders
5,051 deliveries
3,329 order backlog
The A320neo Family
A real step in efficiency:
15% less fuel burn and CO2 emissions
15% more range
While maintaining the Family values:
Building on proven programme with over 8,300 sales
Minimum change, maximum commonality
Maturity from service entry, with low industrial/technical risk
The A320neo will enter service in 2015
A320neo worldwide success
A320 Family is the leader in all market segments
30
100 36 80
60
40
45
33
22
20
30
30
150
200
72
80 6
30
10
1,289 Firm orders from 24 customers
130
8
78
30
50
50 30
100
A330 and A350XWB: complimentary twins
Data to end March 2012
The A330 and A350XWB Families offer a complete fleet solution
A330: 1,188 firm orders
328 order backlog
89 customers
A350XWB: 555 firm orders
34 customers
A350 XWB: an „Intelligent Airframe‟ by design
CFRP
Wings
Centre wing box and keel beam
Tail cone (Section 19)
Skin panels
Frames, stringers and doublers
Doors (Passenger & Cargo)
No corrosion & fatigue tasks
Titanium
High load frames
Door surroundings
Landing gear
Pylons
No corrosion tasks
Al/Al-Li
19%
Titanium
14%
Steel 6%
Misc.
8%
Composite
53%
MSN 5000 (static test) front and centre fuselage join-up
A350 XWB final assembly started Toulouse France – 5th April 2012
Trent XWB engine flying test bed
First flight 18th February 2012, over one year before A350 first flight
The A380 orderbook – a continuing growth story
253 firm orders from
19 Customers
17 A380
10 A380
12 A380
19 A380
1 A380
12 A380
2 A380
6 A380
6 A380
5 A380
6 A380
10 A380
90 A380
10 A380
20 A380
5 A380
6 A380
6 A380
Private
Customer
Data as at January 17th 2012
10 A380
71 A380s delivered to date to 7 customers Around 100 will be in service by year‟s end
Malaysia Airlines and Thai will join the operator base this year In-service fleet as of end March 2012
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Incomparable popularity
“A380 flights are almost
always full. In all of my 40
years in the business, I’ve
never known an aircraft to
be so popular. People are
especially keen to fly in the
A380”. Tim Clark
Emirates CEO
interviewed by Süddeutsche Zeitung – 16th December 2011
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Airbus has sold 11,569 aircraft to 337 customers
To end March 2012
Total sales include A330, A310 and A340 models
A350 Family
A380 Family
A330 Family
A320 Family
The only large scale manufacturer with an all fly-by-wire product line
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