berth-kuliah pelabuhan maritim,, bu erika,,, i
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INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
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GROWING DEMANDGROWING DEMAND
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EachEach transportationtransportation modemode requiresrequiresspacespace forfor::
Access to the port area,
A place to parktransportation units,
both full and empty,
A place to service theunits,
A place to load/unloadthe units,
A place to store loads inkeeping withtransportationarrival/departure rates.
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FORECASTING TECHNIQUESFORECASTING TECHNIQUES
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TRAFFIC FORECASTINGTRAFFIC FORECASTING
The essence of port traffic foresting :The essence of port traffic foresting :
What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ?What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ?
How will the commodities be packaged & carried ?How will the commodities be packaged & carried ?
What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?
The most useful control statistic to each terminal :The most useful control statistic to each terminal :
The total tonnage handledThe total tonnage handled
The average ship turnThe average ship turn--round timeround time
The average tonnage loaded / discharge per shipThe average tonnage loaded / discharge per ship
The volume of trafficThe volume of traffic
The % of ship using cranes or rampsThe % of ship using cranes or ramps
The average ship lengthThe average ship length
The maximum draughtThe maximum draught
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Trend of Traffic:
The fact that over the last few years a particular class of traffic
has been increasing does not in itself mean that the trend will
continue. Trends can reverse themselves very quickly.
In developing countries, the reasons of traffic increase will be
one of the following:
a) Traffic is directly dependent on the GNP;b) Traffic in a specific commodity or product has been
deliberately developed or run down (e.g. national self-
sufficiency in a major foodstuff; development of a new
industry or of mines);
c) A gradual shift in regional centers of production orconsumption is occurring;
d) A gradual shift in transport technology or routing is occurring
(from break-bulk shipment to containers; from maritime to
overland transport, etc.).
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FORECASTING PROCEDUREFORECASTING PROCEDURE
1. Analyze past traffic1. Analyze past traffic
1.1.1.1. Define route, etc.Define route, etc.
1.2. Choose cargo classification1.2. Choose cargo classification
1.3. Tabulate1.3. Tabulate
1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes
1.5. Extract seasonal effects1.5. Extract seasonal effects
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2. Review market influences on traffic2. Review market influences on traffic
and technological trendsand technological trends
2.1. Survey shippers opinions2.1. Survey shippers opinions
(public and private)(public and private)
2.2. Survey shipping companies plans2.2. Survey shipping companies plans
3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates
3.1. GNP3.1. GNP-- linked cargoeslinked cargoes
3.2. Special cargoes3.2. Special cargoes
3.3. Regional/hinterland trends3.3. Regional/hinterland trends
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4. Investigate expected traffic4. Investigate expected traffic--influencinginfluencingeventsevents
4.1. Industry plans4.1. Industry plans
4.2. Agriculture plans4.2. Agriculture plans
4.3. Transport links/transit policies4.3. Transport links/transit policies
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5. Combine all information into alternative5. Combine all information into alternative
growth and technology scenariosgrowth and technology scenarios
5.1. Identify principal scenario themes5.1. Identify principal scenario themes
5.2. Combine all data for each theme5.2. Combine all data for each theme5.3. Remove numerical inconsistencies5.3. Remove numerical inconsistencies
5.4. Write scenarios5.4. Write scenarios
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6. For each scenario, tabulate annual6. For each scenario, tabulate annualforecast in each traffic classforecast in each traffic class
6.1 Tonnages (weight tons)6.1 Tonnages (weight tons)
6.2 Numbers/sizes of ships6.2 Numbers/sizes of ships
6.3 Seasonal effects6.3 Seasonal effects
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FIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDUREFIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDURE
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FIGURE: SIMPLIFIED FORECASTINGPROCEDUREFIGURE: SIMPLIFIED FORECASTINGPROCEDURE
Simplified forecasting procedure for minor investmentsSimplified forecasting procedure for minor investments
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RECORDINGOF TRAFFICRECORDINGOF TRAFFICDENSITIESDENSITIES--CARGO VOLUMESCARGO VOLUMES
TheThe recordingrecording ofof traffictraffic densitiesdensities andand cargocargo volumesvolumes shouldshould
givegive aa detaileddetailed accountaccount ofof CargoCargo andand passengerpassenger handlinghandling
byby dayday ofof week,week, hourhour ofof day,day, ModeMode ofof transportationtransportation toto andand
fromfrom thethe port,port, forfor thethe followingfollowing::
Oceangoing tramp shipsOceangoing tramp ships
Foreign liner shipsForeign liner ships Domestic liner shipsDomestic liner ships
FerriesFerries
TrucksTrucks
BusesBuses RailwayRailway
Possibly aircraftPossibly aircraft
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The annual turnover in the port should be ifThe annual turnover in the port should be ifpossible be subdivided into the followingpossible be subdivided into the following
categories:categories:
Bulk/general cargoBulk/general cargo TransTrans--shipment ship/shipshipment ship/ship
TransTrans--shipment ship/railshipment ship/rail
Goods carried by coastalGoods carried by coastal
ships/trampsships/tramps
Goods/general cargoGoods/general cargohandled at terminalhandled at terminal
Storage timeStorage time
Type of storageType of storage
Customs clearanceCustoms clearance
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ItIt isis essentialessential toto specifyspecify ifif thethe goodsgoods
requirerequire specialspecial handlinghandling equipment,equipment, suchsuchasas ;;
Loading and unloading equipment.Loading and unloading equipment.
Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary).Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary).
Fork lift truck requirement.Fork lift truck requirement.
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Groups of goodsGroups of goods
1. Agricultural products1. Agricultural products
2. Coal, other solid material fuels2. Coal, other solid material fuels
3. Petroleum and petroleum products3. Petroleum and petroleum products4. Ore and waste of ore and steel4. Ore and waste of ore and steel
5. Metal products5. Metal products
6. Cement, building materials6. Cement, building materials
7. Chemicals, fertilizers7. Chemicals, fertilizers
8. Machinery, manufactured articles8. Machinery, manufactured articles
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Classical cargoesClassical cargoes
Liquid and dry bulk cargoesLiquid and dry bulk cargoes
1. Building materials1. Building materials
2. Petroleum and derivatives2. Petroleum and derivatives3. Ores3. Ores
4. Chemicals4. Chemicals
5.Fertilizers, etc5.Fertilizers, etc
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Traffic by ship:Traffic by ship:
The conveyors for freight flow to move by the waterway are theships. The movement of the ships makes up the traffic on the
waterway one of the specialties for the waterway traffic modeling
is that there are great differences in the conveyors dimensions.
The deadweight tonnage of the ships in Belgium varies from 250
tons to 9000 tons. It is interested to know the percentage of thefreights transported by the ships with various deadweight
tonnage.
Some following figure show the traffic volume with the indices of:
number of trips
ship sailing distance
tonnage moved
ton. Km
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Selected Operating Characteristics of Inland Waterway Craft
907 2003000950290454,0001500935195
302,0001000926175
Galons*)Capacity (tons)Liquid Cargo
(Tank) Barges
1500935195
1000926175
Capacity (tons)Covered Dry
cargo Barges
3000950290
1500930195
350926175 Capacity (tons)Open Hopper Barges
13501240130
10001138120
35093090
Capacity (tons)Scows
191036366
101040257
Capacity Railroad carsCarfloats
1200835195900730130
350626110
Capacity (tons)Deck barges
2000 to 450014 to 1530 to 34125 to 150
1200 to 350012 to 1425 to 3095 t o 105
800 to 120010 to 112490
350 to 650821 to 2365 t o 80
HorsepowerTugboats
4000 to 60008.6401602000 to 4000834142
1000 to 20007.630117
HorsepowerTowboat
Draft (ft)Breadth (ft)Length
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DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTSDISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS
1. The first step in a systematic forecasting procedure is to examine
the existing traffic in detail preferably on a year-by-year basis
going back for at least three years. List the major cargos handled
in your port based on two ways; by country of loading or
discharge, and by major cargo class?
2. Discuss, briefly, the aims of the market forecast in the
identification of the potential users and the transport being usedfor the various commodities?
3. What factors that affected changes in hinterland?
4. Port A and B, each with its own hinterland demand for traffic of
100,000 and 40,000 units per year respectively. When both ports
are served by the trunk route ship (case (a)), each has only the
standard level of quayside activity associated with its ownhinterland traffic. In case (b), the trunk road ship stops calling at
port B and its traffic is carried in a coastal feeder vessel. In case
(c) the feeder service to B is via land transport. What is the level
of activity in case (a) and (b), and please draw the effect of feeder
services on quayside activity in case (a), (b) and (c).
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DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTSDISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS
5. Discuss, briefly, what are the technological changes that
affect the traffic forecast?
6. For estimating the forecast of the number of calls (the
ship traffic forecast), and of the related size of ship, whatare the important items should be considered?
7. What should or should not be done in helping people to
carry out their own forecasting?
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TABLE
SPECIFIC TRAFFIC FORECASTING BY ROUTE (TAHUN 1985)
Import (a)( in thousand tons )
Origin Country
South West Europe South East Asia Japan
Ameri
caNorwegia
Swedia
Holland
German
British
French
Total Malaysia
Singapure
Indonesia
Philipine
Total
Liquid Bulk-CPO-Petroleum product-Sulphur (b)-Vegetable oilDry Bulk-Bricks-Iron Seed-Sulphur (b)-Cement (s)
-Grains-OthersContainers Load dan ro/ro (c)-Celular Ship-Conventional Ship-Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load-Palletized Tin-Iron and steel product-Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk-Sacked Wheat-Sacked Cement
-Sacked Fertilizer-Fresh Fruit-Vehicles-Machinery-General Cargo
(a) Main Commodities figured is the ones that need separate estimation in single port. (The list is not complete)
(b) Those commodities should be divided into different traffic category according to transport mode
(c) ISO Containers and Ro/ro should be Noted in ton and TEUs
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TABLE
SPECIAL TRAFFIC FORECASTING DELINEATED IN YEARS
Import (a)( in thousand tons )
Scenario A Scenario B
1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000 1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000
Liquid Bulk
- CPO- Petroleum product- Sulphur (b)- Vegetable oilDry Bulk- Bricks- Iron Seed- Sulphur (b)- Cement (s)- Grains
- OthersContainers Load dan ro/ro (c)- Celular Ship- Conventional Ship- Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load- Palletized Tin- Iron and steel product- Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk- Sacked Wheat
- Sacked Cement- Sacked Fertilizer- Fresh Fruit- Vehicles- Machinery- General Cargo
(a) Main Commodities figured is the ones that need separate estimation in single port. (The list is not complete)
(b) Those commodities should be divided into different traffic category according to transport mode
(c) ISO Containers and Ro/ro should be Noted in ton and TEUs
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EXAMPLEEXAMPLE
REGRESION LINEREGRESION LINE
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ExampleExample::FromFrom 88 zone,zone, itit isis knownknown thethe triptrip productionproduction perper dayday (Y)(Y)andand shipsships (X)(X) asas shownshown inin thethe tabletable..
No of ZoneNo of Zone Trip Production per dayTrip Production per dayThe number of shipsThe number of ships
availableavailable
11 500500 200200
22 300300 5050
33 13001300 500500
44 200200 100100
55 400400 100100
66 12001200 100100
77 900900 300300
88 10001000 400400
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FindFind RegressionRegression Model,Model, byby leastleast squaresquare MethodMethod inin orderorder totogetget predictionprediction thethe YY andand XX ??SolutionSolution ::
XXYY XX22 XYXY
200200 500500 4000040000 100000100000
5050 300300 25002500 1500015000
500500 13001300 250000250000 650000650000
100100 200200 1000010000 2000020000
100100 400400 1000010000 4000040000
100
100
1200
1200
10000
10000
120000
120000
300300 900900 9000090000 270000270000
400400 10001000 160000160000 400000400000
17501750 58005800 572500572500 16150001615000
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FormulaFormula forfor LeastLeast SquareSquare MethodMethod toto findfind thethe bestbest fitfit lineline of ofRegressionRegression lineline..
2222
22
XXXXnn
XYXYXXYYXXAA
!!
(( ))(( )) (( ))(( ))
(( )) (( )) 323,7323,71750175057250057250088
161500016150001750175058005800572500572500AA 22 ==--
--==
!!
2222XXXXnn
YYXXXYXYnnBB
1.8251.825(1750)(1750)(572500)(572500)88
(5800)(5800)(1750)(1750)(1615000)(1615000)88BB
22==
--
--==
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Y = A + BX Y = A + BX
Y = 323,7 + 1,825X Y = 323,7 + 1,825X
Then,Then,RegressionRegression lineline isis ::
regresion ine
y = 0.271 x + 21.8 3
R2
= 0.4957
0
100
200
300
400
500
00
0 500 1000 1500
trip production
No
ofShip
Series1
inear (Series1)
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thankyouthankyou
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