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Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Demand For Higher Education Programs
Results through April 2018
Confidential 2
Who Is Gray?
Program and MarketEvaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
3Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Psychology3. Summary
Confidential 4
§ We started tracking Inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Gray has tracked demand for several years.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 5
§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.
§ In April, searches were only down 1%.
Google Search Trends: Programs
Program searches on Google are down 5% this year.
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches200-Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions
Confidential 6
§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher-education brands.§ April searches were flat year over year.
Google Search Trends (Brands)
Brand searches are also down 5% this year.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018
Confidential 7
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiries decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2017.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
-10%
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 8
§ February reached last year’s volume.§ March was down 7% year-over-year.§ April volume actually rose 2% year-over-year.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
The long and steep decline in inquiry volume may be slowing.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+2%
Confidential 9
§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 53%.§ Since then, conversion rates have fallen, but are still beating the baseline by 22%.§ Q1 will continue to improve for another month or two.
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017 and Q1 2018, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)
+51%
+28%
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 10
§ December 2017 was also down 10% year-over-year.§ February, March, and April 2018 are down, but the gaps are likely to close as they mature.
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For January 2018 inquiries, total conversions fell 8% year-over-year.
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.
-8% YoY
Immature Months1
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 11
§ For the last five months, prices have been over $46.00.§ In April, prices rose 4.6% year-over-year to $47.46.
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For 13 out of the past 14 months, the average price paid per inquiry has risen year-over-year.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.61 46.42 47.46 - - - - - - - -
$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48$50
Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels
+4.6% YoY
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 12
Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
Business Administration has the highest spending on inquiries.
1.000.75
0.480.440.44
0.360.29
0.240.24
0.22
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Business Administration and Management
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Health/Health Care Administration
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder
Psychology, General
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
HVAC
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design
Public Administration
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(April 2018)
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Index to Max
Confidential 13
§ The program with the largest budget, Business Administration, fell 8% year-over-year.
Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
In April, year-over-year spending increased for 6 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
53%
29%
26%
14%
13%
3%
-8%
-15%
-15%
-23%
-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%
Public Administration
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder
Psychology, General
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design
Health/Health Care Administration
HVAC
Business Administration and Management
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
April 2018 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets
% Change Year Over Year
14Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Psychology3. Summary
Confidential 15
Inquiries for Online Programs
On average, inquiries for online programs grew 5% year-over-year in 2017.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
+5%
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 16
Inquiries for Online Programs
Inquiries for online programs grew 4% year-over-year in April.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+4%
Confidential 17
§ The University of Phoenix and Grand Canyon University account for 75% of the imports
Import/Export of Online Students (based on NC-SARA Data)
Among SARA States, AZ is the largest importer of online students
*The National Council for State Authorization Reciprocity Agreements (NC-SARA) tracks out-of-state learning placements for higher education institutions in the majority of U.S. States. The data excludes institutions located in California, Florida, Massachusetts, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands, but does include students from these states and territories.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
42,060
42,983
50,058
53,778
56,532
57,770
59,086
88,635
95,826
232,830
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
New York
Iowa
Minnesota
Georgia
Virginia
New Hampshire
Colorado
Utah
West Virginia
Arizona
10 Largest Importers of Online Students
36,923
39,111
39,791
40,929
51,624
55,959
63,986
73,653
98,911
104,365
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000
Washington
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Texas
California
10 Largest Exporters of Online Students
Confidential 18
Heat Map of Online Inquires per Capita – by State
Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina produce the most inquiries per capita for online higher-education programs.
RGB(126,0,168)334 - 248,945RGB(137,17,177) 262 - 325RGB(149,35,187) 241 - 254RGB(160,52,197) 215 - 220RGB(172,70,206) 193 - 214RGB(183,87,216) 182 - 192RGB(195,105,226)158 - 175RGB(206,122,235)145 - 157RGB(218,140,245)139 - 143RGB(230,158,255)102 - 130
Online Inquiries per Capita
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 19
Heat Map of Online Inquires per Capita – by County
The top 5 counties by most inquiries per capita for online higher education programs are located in Georgia (2), Texas (1), and Mississippi (2).
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
RGB(126,0,168)389 - 20,168RGB(137,17,177) 315 - 386RGB(149,35,187) 272 - 315RGB(160,52,197) 242 - 272RGB(172,70,206) 222 - 242RGB(183,87,216) 202 - 222RGB(195,105,226)181 - 202RGB(206,122,235)155 - 180RGB(218,140,245)123 - 155RGB(230,158,255)15 - 122
Online Inquiries per Capita
Confidential 20
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
On average, student demand for on-campus programs fell 14% year-over-year in 2017.
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-14%
Confidential 21
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In April, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 9% year-over-year.
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-9% YoY
22Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Psychology3. Summary
Confidential 23
§ Houston was up the most this month (7%), after falling 9% YOY in March.
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In April 2018, two of The Big 5 Cities grew inquiries year-over year.
-26% -21%
-31%
-11% -14%
7% 4%
0% -6% -8%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Houston, TX Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 24
The Big 5 Programs: April Growth Year-over-Year
Only 2 of The Big 5 Programs fell in April.
21%
3% 0%
-7% -10% -15%
-10% -5% 0% 5%
10% 15% 20% 25%
Healthcare Administration
Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Business Administration
Medical Assistant
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 25
The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All 5 of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 70% or more.
172%
111%93%
72% 70%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Electrical Engineering
Computer Programming
Cybersecurity Public Administration
Accounting and Business
The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in March Inquiries
§ Electrical Engineering, Cybersecurity, and Public Administration are repeats from last month.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Also in March Fast 5
Confidential 26
Fastest-growing Programs
The fastest-growing programs are all programs that take 2 years or fewer to complete.
11%
15%
15%
16%
22%
26%
32%
35%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Electrician
Surgical Technology/Technologist
Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General
Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering …
Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and Instructor
Medical Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiation …
Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist
Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist
Fastest-growing ProgramsApril Google Searches
Confidential 27
Shrinking Programs
Several teaching programs are falling fast.
-69%
-46%
-44%
-43%
-36%
-28%
-27%
-23%
-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Hotel/Motel Administration/Management
Education, General
Hospitality Administration/Management, General
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General
Criminal Justice/Safety Studies
Elementary Education and Teaching
Chemistry, General
Teacher Education, Multiple Levels
Fastest-declining ProgramsApril Google Searches
Confidential 28
Fastest-growing Brands
The fastest-growing brands are a mix of very different schools.
12%
13%
14%
15%
18%
20%
22%
26%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
University of Texas at Austin
College for America, SNHU
Florida Career College
University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus
University of Wyoming
West Coast University
Western Governors University
Universal Technical Institute
Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches
29Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Psychology3. Summary
Confidential 30
§ Psychology tends to be a more competitive program, therefore the cost per click is much higher than that of the average program.
Cost Per Click (CPC) – Google Keywords
In 2017 and Q1 2018, search costs for Psychology are falling overall, but very erratic for online.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
7/1/17 8/1/17 9/1/17 10/1/17 11/1/17 12/1/17 1/1/18 2/1/18 3/1/18 4/1/18
Google SearchesCost Per Click
CPC - Psychology
CPC - Psychology (Online)
CPC - All Programs
Confidential 31
§ The mean salary is $81,000.§ The median salary is $86,000.§ But, a graduate degree is required to become a psychologist.
Psychologist: Salary
Salaries are typically more than $75,000 for Psychologists.
264
493
949
2,876
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. May 1, 2017-April 30, 2018SOC Codes 19-3031 (Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists), 19-3032 (Industrial-Organizational Psychologists), and 19-3039 (Psychologists, All Other) were used in this analysis.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level
Confidential 32
§ Undergraduate psychology majors go into a variety of fields with reasonable average wages.
Psychologist: Bachelor’s Graduate Salaries
For graduates with a Bachelor’s degree in psychology, wages are quite different.
$32,828
$70,354
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000
Age less than 30
Age over 30
ACS Salaries By Program, For Bachelor’s Degree Graduates
Confidential 33
Psychologist: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job postings that specify education, 83% require graduate education.
0%
0%
7%
55%
38%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. May 1, 2017-April 30, 2018SOC Codes 19-3031 (Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists), 19-3032 (Industrial-Organizational Psychologists), and 19-3039 (Psychologists, All Other) were used in this analysis.
Confidential 34
Psychologist: Employer Requirements
0.99
0.86
0.74
0.67
0.67
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
Interpret psychological test results
Forecast phenomena based on statistical or mathematical …
Perform statistical analysis or modeling
Collect statistical data
Conduct field research
Analyze scientific or investigative findings
Interpret ability or achievement test results
Plan social behavior learning activities
Collect psychological or social sciences related data
Perform psychological research
Evaluate client progress against measurable goals
Evaluate mental health conditions or disorders
Evaluate patient functioning and capabilities
Evaluate patient or client response to therapy or treatment
Psychologist: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job
Low Fit with Job High
Source: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Psychology, General (42.0101)
Confidential 35
Psychologist: Program Scorecard
Confidential 36
Psychologist: Market Rank
Confidential 37
Psychologists: Completions per 1,000 Population (Ages 18-34)
New Hampshire has nearly double the market saturation as the next closest market.
2.26
2.34
2.38
2.47
2.51
2.63
2.66
2.75
2.81
4.93
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Minnesota
Virginia
Massachusetts
Vermont
District of Columbia
New Hampshire
Psychology Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Highest States)
0.58
0.98
1.09
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.21
1.23
1.25
1.25
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00
Alaska
Delaware
South Carolina
Nevada
Louisiana
Texas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Washington
Kentucky
Psychology Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Lowest States)
38Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Psychology3. Summary
Confidential 39
§ The decline in total inquiries seems to be slowing.
§ Both Google search and Gray inquiry data confirm this trend.
§ Conversions exceed our baseline, but are off their peak.
§ Prices for inquiries are rising.
§ In this environment, you will need:
- Great data to inform decisions on programs and markets to invest in.
- The ability to take share, so you can sustain enrollment in a declining market.
Key Demand Trends and Observations
Confidential 40
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins
CEOGray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836
Confidential 41
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
June Webcast(May Results)
Thursday, June 21st at 2:00 PM EDT
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